PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Primavera 2025

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/09616cdf-3aef-4061-984b-bd7d4e11df67

Argentines snap up foreign goods as Javier Milei strengthens peso

Chinese solar panels and Uruguayan butter arrive as president tackles inflation by easing import restrictions


Retailers in Argentina have almost doubled food imports in the first two months of 2025 compared with a year ago © AFP/Getty Images

Argentina’s imports are rising rapidly as libertarian President Javier Milei bets on a strong peso and cheap foreign goods to help fight inflation, even as they put pressure on the country’s scarce hard currency reserves.

As Argentina recovered from a recession that depressed imports and Milei began opening up the protectionist economy, the country’s inbound trade surged 30 per cent in the past six months compared with the previous period on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the national statistics agency.

Italian pasta, Brazilian bread and Uruguayan butter have become increasingly visible on supermarket shelves after retailers almost doubled food imports in the first two months of 2025 from a year earlier. Solar-cell imports grew tenfold, while farmers quadrupled overseas tractor purchases.

The strategy of strengthening the peso while loosening import restrictions has helped tame surging inflation, but is not without risk. As the country spends more dollars abroad and fails to build up reserves, it becomes more vulnerable to an external market shock or a big devaluation that would undo Milei’s progress on stemming price rises.

The situation has piled pressure on the president to secure an IMF loan to replenish reserves, which he says will be delivered in April.



The peso’s strength has become a politically fraught subject in Argentina, with Milei repeatedly attacking economists who describe risks in its appreciation as “econo-swindlers”. Several retailers declined to speak on the record about the peso’s role in rising imports, citing fear of angering the president and local manufacturers.

Chinese imports are growing fastest, more than doubling in February compared with the same month last year, with business leaders having visited the country to shop for suppliers. Previously restricted overseas purchases via ecommerce services such as Alibaba have soared.

“People are filling the cargo stores of Buenos Aires airports with boxes,” said Ruben Minond, owner of cycling retailer Tienda Bike, which has stepped up purchases of Chinese bike lights and bags and plans to start shipping bicycles by container.

“I’m buying more overseas than locally now, because it costs less and it’s much, much easier than it used to be,” he added.

Current import levels, of $5.9bn in February, are not unprecedented in Argentina, where trade flows have swung dramatically during the past decade.

But the rapid growth reflects the tricky balancing act Milei must perform to deliver lasting stability.



To tackle the normally conflicting goals of slashing Argentina’s severe inflation while at the same time restarting economic growth, the president has turned to the country’s strict currency controls.

Following a big initial devaluation when he took office in December 2023, Milei let the peso slide only 2 per cent a month last year, despite inflation well above that rate. That has strengthened the currency 47 per cent in real terms, according to consultancy GMA Capital.

The peso’s appreciation has dragged down price pressures but made domestic goods much more expensive in dollar terms compared with other countries, while increasing Argentines’ purchasing power abroad.

Alongside rising imports, Argentines are holidaying abroad in near-record numbers, as the strong peso makes Brazilian beaches and Chilean shopping malls more affordable. Argentina recorded its second-highest monthly tourism dollar spend in January, at $1.5bn.

As a result, the country has been running a current account deficit since June, while its trade surplus for goods narrowed to $224mn in February, down from well over $1bn a month for most of 2024.

“This is the collateral damage of the strict exchange rate policy,” said Ramiro Blazquez Giomi, Latin America and Caribbean strategist at financial services group StoneX. “In the short term, the growing current account deficit puts pressure on the availability of dollars that the government needs to keep the currency stable [and avoid spikes in inflation].”

Many healthy developing economies ran current account deficits, mostly financing them with inflows of foreign investment, Blazquez noted. But crisis-stricken Argentina is receiving very little foreign investment and cannot borrow on capital markets.

Therefore, without a current account surplus, Milei cannot build up the negligible central bank reserves he inherited, which remain about $6bn in the red excluding liabilities.

But the government is undeterred and is slashing tariffs and cumbersome customs regulations on hundreds of goods.

“We are continuing to cut taxes and tariffs to stimulate competition and keep lowering inflation,” economy minister Luis Caputo said this month as he chopped duties on textiles, one of Argentina’s most protected industries.


Javier Milei, Argentina’s president, is aiming to avoid a big devaluation of the peso © Kent Nishimura/Bloomberg

Manufacturing leaders say the imports surge will force lay-offs in a sector that employs almost a fifth of the nation’s workers.

Government officials say manufacturers are benefiting from cheaper imports of parts, and that businesses must become more competitive.

With crucial midterm elections looming in October, Milei has pledged to avoid a big devaluation of the peso.

If Milei keeps that promise, “we are going to see a very strong growth in goods imports, and a deepening of the current account deficit this year”, said Martín Rapetti, executive director of think-tank Equilibra.

“This is a historically high real exchange rate . . . and that, in my view, is the fundamental [driver] of increased imports,” he added.

But Dante Sica, a former production minister in a centre-right government, disagreed, arguing the growth in imports would stabilise soon, as it reflected the “normalisation” of consumer demand and Milei’s scrapping of cumbersome import restrictions.

Sica predicted rapid growth in oil and gas exports would compensate for rising imports to keep the trade balance positive. Oil and gas exports are on track for a $8bn surplus this year compared with $4bn last year as production increases at a vast Patagonian shale patch.

“As long as you have a positive trade balance, you have sources of financing,” he added. “I still don’t see a current account finance problem.” 

[muyuu]

[Derby]

https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-macro-33991330-097c-11f0-a401-ed9b067aa10a.html

1 big thing: More cracks in household finances

In the aggregate, American households' finances are looking just fine. But nobody lives in the aggregate, and there is evidence of rising financial strain for a meaningful slice of the population.

The big picture: Cracks have appeared in many household balance sheets over the last year and widened further in the final months of 2024, leaving some Americans more vulnerable to any disruptions that are to come.

But it has not been obvious from top-line numbers, as disproportionately affluent families have benefited from a surging stock market, rising home prices, and fixed-rate mortgage debt held over from the low-interest environment of three years ago.

What they're saying: "The number of people falling behind on debt payments has risen sharply, even though households collectively built up their holdings of liquid assets" at the end of last year, wrote Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macro, in a new note.

By the numbers: The net worth of American households — the cumulative value of their assets minus debts — edged up to $160.3 trillion in the fourth quarter, up 9.3% from a year earlier.

Household debt service as a share of disposable personal income was at 11.3% in Q4, below its pre-pandemic levels, per Federal Reserve data.

Yes, but: The share of outstanding credit card debt that is more than 90 days delinquent rose to 11.4% in the fourth quarter, per New York Fed data, the highest in 13 years (it hovered around 8% in the years before the pandemic).

Indeed, in the last two decades, it has only been higher during and immediately following the 2008 Great Recession.

Looking forward, consumers anticipate further difficulty handling their debts. The average odds people placed that they won't be able to make a minimum debt payment in the next three months rose to 14.6%, the highest since early in the pandemic and well above 2019 levels.

Between the lines: Those stresses for borrowers have occurred against a backdrop of rising asset prices and a strong job market. The numbers could shoot higher if federal cutbacks and trade wars generate higher unemployment or further wobbles in financial markets.

The end of Biden-era student loan relief efforts could further stress some borrowers, Tombs argued.
Further Fed interest rate cuts could ease some financial pressure on households straining under debts, but still-elevated inflation may constrain the central bank's room to maneuver.

The bottom line: If you carry stocks, own a house, and have a low-rate home mortgage, there's a good chance you've gotten richer over the last year. If you rent your home, live paycheck to paycheck, and have credit card debt, things look more worrisome.

2. The return of economic pessimism


Data: The Conference Board. Chart: Axios Visuals

A line chart that depicts the Conference Board's consumer confidence index from January 2015 to March 2025. The index peaked at 128.9 in June 2021 and fell to 92.9 by March 2025. Notable fluctuations occurred during 2020, reflecting economic uncertainty, with a significant drop to 85.7 in April 2020, a result of the pandemic.

For the fourth straight month, consumer confidence — as measured by the Conference Board's index — dropped, alongside rising fears about inflation and tariffs.

Why it matters: It is safe to say the receding number is no blip. President Trump now faces the same economic discontent that plagued the Biden administration.

Consumers' pessimism is raising fears about the economy's health, even as official government indicators suggest healthy conditions.

By the numbers: The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell by more than 7 points in March to 92.9.

A sub-index that measures confidence in the short-term outlook for income, business and employment conditions dropped almost 10 points to the lowest level in 12 years.

Just one sub-index improved, though only slightly: Consumers' assessment of the current labor market ticked up.

The intrigue: Add this to the sign of weakening household balance sheets that we note above: For the first time in months, the group's survey showed weaker expectations about household income.

"[C]onsumers' optimism about future income—which had held up quite strongly in the past few months—largely vanished, suggesting worries about the economy and labor market have started to spread into consumers' assessments of their personal situations," Stephanie Guichard, a senior economist at the Conference Board, wrote in a release.

The big picture: The Conference Board said consumers' write-in responses indicated that Trump policies, supportive or not, far outweighed other factors affecting Americans' view of the economy.

What to watch: Average inflation expectations for the year ahead rose again, to 6.2% from 5.8% the prior month, "as consumers remained concerned about high prices for key household staples like eggs and the impact of tariffs," Guichard wrote.

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/f3699a8c-a68f-4551-b45c-cf9e39886c57

Moody’s warns on deteriorating outlook for US public finances

Rating agency says Donald Trump’s policies could make it more difficult to offset rising deficit and debt

Credit rating group Moody’s has warned on the US fiscal outlook, saying President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs could hamper the country’s ability to cope with a growing debt pile and higher interest rates.

The rating agency said on Tuesday that America’s “fiscal strength is on course for a continued multiyear decline”, having already “deteriorated further” since it assigned a negative outlook to America’s top-notch Aaa credit rating in November 2023.

While Moody’s highlighted the “extraordinary” economic resilience of the US and the role of the dollar and the Treasury market as backbones of the global financial system, its analysts also warned on Tuesday that the policies of the second Trump administration — including sweeping tariffs and plans for tax cuts — could do more harm than good for government revenues.

“The potential negative credit impact of sustained high tariffs, unfunded tax cuts and significant tail risks to the economy have diminished prospects that these formidable strengths will continue to offset widening fiscal deficits and declining debt affordability,” Moody’s said.

“In fact, fiscal weakening will likely persist even in very favourable economic and financial scenarios,” they added.

Moody’s warning comes amid a furious debate on Capitol Hill and inside the Trump administration over how to place the US on a more sustainable fiscal path. Analysts and investors have warned that the US’s rapidly rising debt and deficit could ultimately dent demand for Treasuries, which form the bedrock of the global financial system.

Pimco, one of the world’s biggest bond managers, said late last year that “sustainability questions” had made it hesitant to purchase long-term Treasuries. The federal budget deficit reached $1.8tn for the fiscal year ending September 30, up 8 per cent from the previous year.

When Moody’s lowered its outlook on the US’s credit rating to negative just over two years ago, it highlighted sharply higher debt servicing costs and “entrenched political polarisation”. America’s credit rating is watched closely because it plays a critical role in the country’s debt affordability — with higher ratings and positive outlooks typically translating into lower borrowing costs.

Moody’s said on Tuesday that US “debt affordability remains materially weaker than for other Aaa-rated and highly rated sovereigns”, with even the most positive economic and financial scenarios highlighting “increasing risks that the deterioration in US fiscal strength may no longer be fully offset by its extraordinary economic strength”.

The rating agency conceded that it expected the world’s biggest economy to “remain strong and resilient”. But its analysts added that “the evolving US government policy agenda on trade, immigration, taxes, federal spending and regulations could reshape parts of the US and global economy with significant long-term consequences”.

While Trump has repeatedly stated his preference for lower US borrowing costs, the Fed last week held interest rates steady in a range of 4.25 per cent to 4.5 per cent — with its policymakers predicting roughly two quarter-point cuts over the course of 2025. Moody’s said it anticipated a federal funds rate of 3.75 per cent to 4 per cent by the end of the year.

[AbiertoPorDemolicion]

Totalmente de acuerdo. Y como ejemplo; de hoy mismo:
(seguimos subvencionando a los exprimeinquilinos)

   
https://www.elcorreo.com/sociedad/gobierno-vasco-amplia-tope-ingresos-ayudas-emantzipa-20250325113519-nt.html

25 Mar. 2025 11:58:06 UTC

El Gobierno vasco ampliará hasta los 36 años las ayudas a la emancipación
Aprueba destinar 25 millones de euros a la segunda convocatoria de este programa, que en principio seguirá concediendo una aportación de 300 euros al mes a personas de entre 25 y 29 años y con ingresos de hasta 30.000 euros
Alba Cárcamo

Martes, 25 de marzo 2025, 12:21 | Actualizado 12:53h.

6.173 jóvenes de entre 25 y 29 años se beneficiaron el pasado año de la primera convocatoria de Emantzipa, programa del Gobierno vasco por el que se conceden ayudas de 300 euros al mes durante dos años para apoyar a este colectivo en su proceso para abandonar el hogar familiar. Sin embargo, la cifra se quedó lejos de los 15.000 beneficiarios a los que en un principio aspiraba alcanzar el Ejecutivo, que acaba de aprobar una segunda convocatoria, la de este 2025, con la que pretenden «llegar a más jóvenes que el pasado año».

Entre las novedades, explicadas este martes por la consejera de Bienestar, Juventud y Reto Demográfico, Nerea Melgosa, destaca que se elevarán los ingresos máximos que podrán tener los perceptores para acceder al programa, que calculan que serán «unos 7.000». Las personas que tributen solas deberán tener unos ingresos anuales superiores a los 3.000 euros e inferiores a los 30.000 (el año pasado eran 28.000), mientras que, en el caso de quienes lo hacen de manera conjunta, el tope se incrementa de 30.000 a 36.000.
El Gobierno vasco también incrementará hasta los 36 años la edad límite para percibir esta cuantía, aunque no de manera inminente. Ese cambio no se recoge en la nueva convocatoria, para «no retrasar» su puesta en marcha, aunque la consejera quiere que sea «lo antes posible».
El presupuesto de este ejercicio ascenderá a 25 millones de euros (el año pasado se consignaron 53, aunque solo se usaron 10,3) y el plazo para presentar las solicitudes se abrirá el próximo martes. Melgosa ha asegurado que los 53 millones son «para varios años» y no solo para el 2024, aunque ha reconocido que el cálculo de que se iba a llegar a 15.000 jóvenes en el primer año fue «sobre todo garantista para que nadie se quedase sin esa ayuda». «De los errores se puede aprender, y por eso se aumenta el salario», ha expuesto.

Los solicitantes deben estar «empadronados» en algún municipio de Euskadi y «acreditar» su emancipación con «un contrato de arrendamiento o de compraventa de vivienda libre». Es, además, «compatible con otras ayudas como Gaztelagun, la Renta de Garantía de Ingresos, el Ingreso Mínimo Vital y diferentes prestaciones de vivienda».
En estos momentos, ha señalado la titular del departamento, «el promedio mensual que las personas jóvenes en Euskadi destinan a la compra de vivienda (hipoteca) es de 549 euros y al alquiler de 675 euros». «No podemos permitir que el acceso a una vivienda o la búsqueda de oportunidades económicas sean barreras insalvables para nuestra juventud», ha subrayado.

En ese sentido, buscan «favorecer el inicio o la consolidación de la emancipación», que según el último dato del Observatorio Vasco de la Juventud se sitúa en 29,8 años. Consideran Emantzipa una «herramienta clave» para que «la juventud tenga oportunidades reales de construir su propio futuro», en una comunidad autónoma en la que «la mayoría» de las personas se emancipan «en torno a los 30 años o incluso después». En la franja de edad de 25 a 29 años, «solo un 32,8% logra independizarse».

La edad media de los solicitantes de la ayuda en 2024 se situó en 26,93 años. La mayoría (73%) lo hicieron para pagar el alquiler y otro 27% de los peticionarios eran propietarios. Se adjudicaron ayudas por valor de 10,36 millones de euros. Más de la mitad (5,3 millones) se destinaron a residentes en Bizkaia, con 3.193 beneficiarios del programa. En Álava percibieron la ayuda 906 personas (1,59 millones) y en Gipuzkoa 2.074 (3,46 millones).

5,3 millones a los bolsillos de los caseros zampalangostinos de Bizkaia,
1,59 millones a los bolsillos de los caseros zampalangostinos de Álava,
3,46 millones a los bolsillos de los caseros zampalangostinos de Gipuzkoa.

Enhorabuena a los agraciados.

De los errores se puede aprender...

https://www.eustat.eus/estad/id_48/ti_estadistica-de-nacimientos/ultima-nota-prensa.html
Nota de prensa de 03/02/2025
ESTADÍSTICA DE NACIMIENTOS. III/2024
Los nacimientos descendieron un 7,7% en el tercer trimestre de 2024 en la C.A. de Euskadi

Se produce un descenso en los tres territorios históricos, siendo el más acusado en Gipuzkoa (-9,4%), seguido de Álava (-7,2%) y Bizkaia, con un -6,7%. En cifras absolutas, en Bizkaia nacieron 1.683 niñas y niños, 1.064 en Gipuzkoa y 530 en Álava.

[...]

Aumentan las madres con nacionalidad extranjera

En el 34,8% de los nacimientos de la C.A. de Euskadi durante julio, agosto y setiembre del año 2024, la madre tenía nacionalidad extranjera. En el mismo periodo de 2023 este porcentaje había sido del 31,6%. Por territorios, en Álava alcanzó el 45,6%, el 33,6% en Bizkaia y 31,2% en Gipuzkoa.

Parece que la raza vasca está llegando a su final.

[sudden and sharp]

[sudden and sharp]

GameStop Reports Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2024 Results
https://investor.gamestop.com/news-releases/news-details/2025/GameStop-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Fiscal-Year-2024-Results/default.aspx

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[sudden and sharp]

Treasuty BTCs...   

[sudden and sharp]

 

[sudden and sharp]

 

[Derby]

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/personal-finance/50-parents-financially-support-adult-children-report-finds-much-costs-rcna198029

50% of parents financially support adult children, report finds. Here's how much it costs them.

From buying food to paying for a cellphone plan or covering health and auto insurance or even rent, these parents are shelling out about $1,474 a month, on average.


Roughly 1 in 3 adults ages 18 to 34 in the U.S. live in their parents’ home, according to U.S. Census Bureau data.d3sign / Getty Images

To get by these days, more young adults turn to a likely source for help: their parents.

For the first time, 50% of parents with a child older than 18 provide them with at least some financial support, according to a new report by Savings.com. That’s up from 47% last year and 45% in 2023.

From buying food to paying for a cellphone plan or covering health and auto insurance or even rent, these parents are shelling out about $1,474 a month, on average, the report found — a three-year high.

“Adulting is expensive,” the report notes.

Many experts argue it’s harder today for young adults to make it on their own.

In addition to soaring everyday expenses and housing costs, millennials and Generation Z face other financial challenges their parents did not at that age.

Not only are their wages lower than their parents’ earnings when they were in their 20s and 30s, after adjusting for inflation, but they are also carrying larger student loan balances, many reports show.

But by other measures, young adults are doing well.

Compared with their parents at this age, Gen Zers are more likely to have a college degree and work full time. Plus, many millennials have more saved for retirement than they did just a few years ago, after reaping the benefits of positive market conditions. 

Yet, roughly 1 in 3 adults ages 18 to 34 in the U.S. live in their parents’ home, according to U.S. Census Bureau data.

“Housing is a big issue and parents are helping more and more with rent and home purchases,” said Carolyn McClanahan, a certified financial planner and founder of Life Planning Partners in Jacksonville, Florida.

60% of parents risk their own financial security

In addition to the monthly expense, supporting grown children can come with a long-term cost.

More than 60% of parents said they have sacrificed their own financial security for the sake of their kids, also a jump from previous years, Savings.com found. The site polled more than 1,000 parents of adult children in February.

Further, about 18% of parents supporting adult children said those financial contributions could continue indefinitely.

“They don’t see an end in sight,” said Beth Klongpayabal, the study’s lead data analyst.

As a general rule, you should set aside money for your own retirement and emergency fund first, McClanahan said. She also suggests parents set parameters to help ensure children are using the money they gift wisely.

“We are careful to make sure parents don’t gift so much to put themselves in peril,” said McClanahan, who also is a member of CNBC’s Advisor Council.

[BENDITALIQUIDEZ]

En la estructura sociodemográfica actual
DEMOCRACIA=PISITOFILIA.

El pisito morirá en la cama.
Creo que la única opción será la bicurvista. Oferta demanda.
El Estado construye cientos de miles sino millones de viviendas asequibles.
O eso o nada.
Las intervenciones bien graduales bien radicales impositivas o monetarias no modifican la estructura de propiedad ni su percepción de caja fuerte sin desmantelar otras áreas básicas de la economía de la sociedad.

Posiblemente, ni tan solo la construcción pública masiva sería permitida en democracia.

Me desdigo. O nos ( como sociedad propietaria) dejamos engañar y traicionar  por el gobierno consciente o inconscientemente, o así hasta que se apague solo el fuego.

Disfruten de lo que tengan y no se dejen amargar. El dolor es cierto, el sufrimiento opcional.
Cómo el espía soviético de " el puente": " would It help?".

Sds.

1- Se construye a mansalva.
2- No se da ninguna ofensiva mediática en relación a la bajada de precios.
3- La gente va viendo cómo hay personas que resuelven sus problemas de alojamiento por cuatro duros con unas calidades acojonantes.
4- Los portales inmobiliarios quedan congelados en el tiempo.
5- El desamparo...

Tened en cuenta que el último telediario de la historia será la retransmisión de una mesa llena de hojas descolocadas y una silla vacía.

[sudden and sharp]

 

[Derby]

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/25/gamestop-says-it-will-add-bitcoin-as-a-treasury-reserve-asset.html

GameStop to invest corporate cash in bitcoin, following in footsteps of MicroStrategy

[sudden and sharp]