Autor Tema: PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Primavera 2025 (Leído 174537 veces)

tomasjos · « **Respuesta #975 en:** Abril 13, 2025, 17:09:29 pm »

Preparando otro crash de las bolsas para mañana

https://www.elconfidencial.com/economia/2025-04-13/china-trump-exenciones-primer-paso-tecnologicas_4108351/

Derby · « **Respuesta #976 en:** Abril 13, 2025, 17:15:15 pm »

https://www.ft.com/content/e7a0af16-6ecf-4e04-8fa3-4de5646e8d58

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America the Unstable

The US will pay a market penalty for Trump’s turmoil

© Matt Kenyon

America under Donald Trump is an emerging market. That’s my takeaway from the last few days of tariff chaos and its fallout.

When I first raised this idea last October, I pointed out that emerging markets are often characterised by uncertain economics, corrupt politics, institutions that are too weak to enforce democratic norms, violence and social polarisation. The US has been heading fast in that direction since 2016, for reasons we know all too well, though asset prices and borrowing rates hadn’t yet reflected it.

Instead, we frequently saw US equities and currency rising during periods of political and economic stress between 2016 and 2024, thanks to the haven status of the dollar.

It didn’t seem to matter that all the things that had bolstered American companies, from low rates to financial engineering to globalisation itself, were tapped out. US asset markets seemed impervious to the notion of a dollar-doomsday scenario that would send both currency and asset prices tumbling.

Trump has finally ended America’s exorbitant privilege. The president’s erratic leadership style, which reminds me of the guy who pulls off his steering wheel so that the other driver will be forced to swerve, is now endangering his country’s currency and equity values, as has always been the case in other, non-exceptional political economies with this much turmoil.

As Mark Rosenberg, the founder and co-head of research at the research firm GeoQuant, pointed out last week, “we now see strong, emerging market-level negative correlations between political risk, and both the USD and S&P 500”.

This is not a surprise, though many in the business and investment community have acted as though it should be. Too many CEOs were looking only at the possibility of tax cuts and deregulation in Trump’s second term rather than the broader instability and economic paradigm shift that it heralded.

Trump’s personal behaviour certainly sent plenty of emerging market-like signals. Is there anything more EM than a leader who surrounds himself with lieutenants vetted mainly for absolute loyalty? The more leadership is about cult of personality, the more economic outcomes are determined by the individual ruler, who can give and take with impunity. And the weaker the institutions, the more likely it is that the ruler will get away with it.

Trump’s election was “in many ways a product of the emerging market-like trends in social and institutional stability in the US that we’ve seen growing since 2017”, notes Rosenberg.

Still, it took the threat of economic war on allies and adversaries alike, waged in ways that left even Trump’s own policymakers struggling to keep up, to shift risk perceptions. Poor US trade representative Jamieson Greer was in Congress defending tariffs even as Trump was granting a 90-day reprieve to many countries. Who will take him, or any of Trump’s cabinet, seriously in any future negotiation?

Equity markets, at least until last week, acted as though Trump had some control over the situation he unleashed. When the president posted that it was a “great time to buy” stocks, they rose. That too is EM-like behaviour. I remember back in 2008, when Russia’s then prime minister Vladimir Putin spoke five sentences criticising a coal and steel oligarch, and $6bn was wiped off the company’s value in real time. In Turkey, the lira and other assets move significantly on President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s speeches and pronouncements.

But the bond market knows better, and it has for some time been telling us what equities did not, which is that borrowing rates aren’t going down, and political risk isn’t going away. Even as equities enjoyed the post-election “Trump bump,” yields remained elevated. The fact that bonds, usually a haven, also sold off during last week’s equity market rout tells us that investors were either selling less risky assets to deal with losses elsewhere, or that trust in the US and its future is simply gone.

In fact, last week may be remembered as the true, quantifiable beginning of the end of American economic exceptionalism. “Fear exists all over,” Euronext chief executive Stéphane Boujnah told France Inter radio a few days ago. “The country [United States] is unrecognisable and we are living in a transition period. There is a certain form of mourning, because the United States that we had known for the most part as a dominant nation resembled the values and institutions of Europe and now resembles more an emerging market.”

I suspect that will be true under Trump with or without tariffs. Even if China backs down and humours the president (I don’t think it will), or we end up with only moderate shifts to the global trading system, the damage has been done. Trust is gone. Wall Street and Main Street alike are uneasy, and that changes behaviour.

The capriciousness of Caligula capitalism is going to be with us at least until the midterms (I’m personally planning to be in cash and gold till then). But the legacy will linger much longer, particularly as the Trump tax cuts coming down the pike in a few months create a completely unsustainable debt picture. Is it possible that America could become the epicentre of the next emerging market-style debt crisis? I would have ruled it out once. Not any more.

Derby · « **Respuesta #977 en:** Abril 13, 2025, 17:29:41 pm »

https://www.ft.com/content/9038804f-cf69-4193-9332-8b5ea1f9af4b

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US tech tariff exemption may only be temporary, says Lutnick

Commerce secretary says products included in reprieve may be subject to separate regime

Smartphones were excluded from ‘reciprocal tariffs’ on Friday © AFP via Getty Images

US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick said smartphones, computers and other consumer electronics may be hit with separate tariffs in a month, suggesting that exemptions offered on Saturday could be temporary.

Late on Friday, the Trump administration excluded smartphones and other consumer electronics from its steep “reciprocal” tariffs in a significant boost for Big Tech following a week of intense turbulence in US markets after the president unleashed a trade war on “liberation day” on April 2.

But speaking on ABC’s This Week on Sunday, Lutnick said products such as smartphones, laptops and wireless earphones that were offered a reprieve on Friday would be re-examined as part of a government probe into semiconductors, that could result in tariffs.

“What he’s doing is he’s saying they’re exempt from the reciprocal tariffs,” Lutnick said, referring to President Donald Trump. “But they’re included in the semiconductor tariffs, which are coming in probably a month or two.”

When asked to clarify whether tariffs on iPhones might “come back on in a month or so”, Lutnick replied: “Correct. That’s right . . . We need our medicines and we need semiconductors and our electronics to be built in America.”

His comments will stoke uncertainty for businesses over Trump’s tariff rollout, which has been marked by a series of reversals and last week caused an intense sell-off in the $29tn US Treasuries market.

senslev · « **Respuesta #978 en:** Abril 13, 2025, 17:45:41 pm »

Recordatorio. Para tenerlo en cuenta nada más, luego pasará lo que tenga que pasar.

Derby · « **Respuesta #979 en:** Abril 13, 2025, 18:00:47 pm »

https://www.axios.com/2025/04/12/dollar-index-tariffs-global-financial-system

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The global financial order is shaking beneath our feet

Illustration of a nervous-looking Ben Franklin from a hundred dollar bill biting his lip and sweating Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

The last ten days have thrown into doubt the role of the United States at the core of the global economic and financial system.

The big picture: After generations in which the U.S. dollar and its government securities have been the world's bedrock safe haven assets, global investors woke up this week to the possibility that they are not particularly safe, and not at all a haven.

Zoom out: The kinds of shifts in the global trade order and financial markets that usually play out over years were compressed into days since President Trump announced "reciprocal tariffs" on April 2.

People will write books about April 2025 the way they have about July 1944, August 1971 or September 2008.

It's the curious way bond and currency markets have interacted that gives the most alarm about the trajectory of global confidence in the U.S.-centric financial order — which has prevailed since the end of World War II.

State of play: In a week that risky assets sold off, so did U.S. Treasury bonds and the U.S. dollar.

This is not normal. In past episodes of extreme tumult, like September 2008 and the early days of the pandemic in 2020, the dollar rallied as global investors sought safety.

By the numbers: The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note closed the week at 4.5%, up half a percent from a week earlier. That level is not worrying (rates were higher as recently as January) but the speed and direction of travel are.

Meanwhile, the dollar index — the dollar's value versus six other major currencies — is down 9.3% since mid-January.

Between the lines: It suggests that erratic leadership, ballooning fiscal deficits, and rapidly eroding diplomatic ties are making global investors wary of being too exposed to the United States.

The market, Deutsche Bank currency strategist George Saravelos wrote, "is re-assessing the structural attractiveness of the dollar as the world's global reserve currency and is undergoing a process of rapid de-dollarization."

In the medium term, this could mean structurally higher U.S. interest rates and more market pressure to reduce deficits.

The bottom line: Markets can behave weirdly, and maybe this will turn out to be just a few bumpy trading days.

But the world's most important financial markets — for the dollar and Treasury securities — are signaling that something fundamental is shifting beneath our feet.

Derby · « **Respuesta #980 en:** Abril 13, 2025, 19:13:16 pm »

https://www.fastcompany.com/91315085/housing-market-unaffordable-home-sales-just-hit-a-40-year-low

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Housing market affordability is so stretched that home turnover hits a 40-year low , by Lance Lambert

When adjusting for U.S. population size, U.S. existing home sales are hovering around four decade lows.

[Source Illustration: Freepik]

U.S. existing-home sales totaled just 4.06 million in 2024—the lowest annual level since 1995, according to the National Association of Realtors. That’s far below the 5.3 million in pre-pandemic 2019.

But here’s the thing: Today’s housing market is even more constrained when you consider that the U.S. now has 76.3 million more people and 33.2 million more households than it did in 1995.

To illustrate this point, ResiClub created the following chart: U.S. existing home sales adjusted for population size. (We used total household counts instead of total population counts).

In January 2025, the seasonally adjusted annualized rate of U.S. existing home sales was 4.08 million. Dividing that figure by the total number of U.S. households (132.2 million) results in 3.1%.

Pretty much the last time U.S. existing home sales—adjusted for population—were lower was in the early 1980s, when the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate peaked at 18.63% in October 1981.

The sharp deterioration in housing affordability has constrained existing home sales across the country. Some of this is due to homebuyers pulling back from the market, but much of it stems from homeowners who would like to sell and buy something else but aren’t doing so. Giving up their lower monthly payment and interest rate—73.3% of outstanding mortgages have a rate below 5.0%—for a much higher monthly payment and rate is hard to stomach. And even if they were willing to move, many homeowners can’t qualify right now for that new mortgage at current mortgage rates and home prices.

To compare with the analysis/chart above, below is the monthly seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of U.S. existing home sales without adjusting for population.

Big picture: To some degree, pent-up churn is building up in the housing market. In theory, the lock-in effect caused by the affordability deterioration and mortgage rate shock is most acute right out of the gate. However, over time, as lifestyle changes increase, incomes rise, and affordability improves, some additional turnover in the existing home market could be unlocked as “switching costs” come down.

sudden and sharp · « **Respuesta #981 en:** Abril 13, 2025, 19:28:18 pm »

Cita de: asustadísimos en Abril 12, 2025, 15:39:19 pm

[Aviso de reedición del comentario anterior...
https://www.transicionestructural.net/index.php?topic=2625.msg241334#msg241334
... para que se entienda bien qué quiero decir, aunque necesito ayuda y las fechas no acompañan (vacaciones de Semana Santa).]

Día de Europa
https://european-union.europa.eu/principles-countries-history/symbols/europe-day_es

asustadísimos · « **Respuesta #982 en:** Abril 13, 2025, 20:29:27 pm »

[Vemos que el restorán BERNARMIERDAS ha publicado el menú de la nueva temporada. Incluye croquetas de boñiga ibérica y tartar de estiércol con crujiente de paja.]