La revuelta de Ucrania

[saturno]

Para archivo copia en acceso del articulo (alemán) que documentó lo que pasó en febrero-marzo 2022

https://braveneweurope.com/michael-von-der-schulenburg-hajo-funke-harald-kujat-peace-for-ukraine
Peace For Ukraine
Michael von der Schulenburg, Hajo Funke, Harald Kujat – Peace For Ukraine
November 10, 2023 Geopolitics

The disastrous derailment of early peace efforts to end the war in Ukraine

Michael von der Schulenburg is a former UN Assistant Secretary-General, who worked for over 34 years for the United Nations, and shortly for the OSCE, in many countries in war or internal armed conflicts often involving fragile governments and armed non-state actors

Hajo Funke is Professor Emeritus for political sciences of the Otto-Suhr-Institute/ Freie University Berlin
General (ret.)

Harald Kujat was the highest ranging German officer of the Bundeswehr and at NATO

Sie können die deutsche Fassung HIER lesen


De Michael von der Schulenburg

Image
The British Prime Minister’s fateful visit to Kiev on 9 April 2022



This is a detailed reconstruction of the Ukrainian-Russian peace negotiations in March 2022 and the associated mediation attempts by the then Israeli Prime Minister, Naftali Bennett, supported by President Erdogan and former German Chancellor Schröder. It was drawn up by retired General H. Kujat and Professor Emeritus H. Funke, two of the initiators of the recently presented peace plan for Ukraine. And it is also in connection with their peace plan that this reconstruction is so extremely important. It reminds us that we cannot afford to delay ceasefire and peace negotiations again. The human and military situation in Ukraine deteriorates dramatically, with the added danger that it could lead to a further escalation of the war. We need a diplomatic solution to this cruel war for Europe and the Ukraine – and we need it now!

From the detailed reconstruction of the March peace efforts 6 conclusions emerge:

1. Just one month after the start of the Russian military intervention in Ukraine, Ukrainian and Russian negotiators had come very close to an agreement for a ceasefire and to an outline for a comprehensive peace solution to the conflict.

2) In contrast to today, President Zelensky and his government had made great efforts to negotiate peace with Russia and bring the war to a quick end.

3) Contrary to Western interpretations, Ukraine and Russia agreed at the time that the planned NATO expansion was the reason for the war. They therefore focused their peace negotiations on Ukraine’s neutrality and its renunciation of NATO membership. In return, Ukraine would have retained its territorial integrity except for Crimea.

4) There is little doubt that these peace negotiations failed due to resistance from NATO and in particular from the USA and the UK. The reasons is that such a peace agreement would have been tantamount to a defeat for NATO, an end to NATO’s eastward expansion and thus an end to the dream of a unipolar world dominated by the USA.

5. The failure of the peace negotiations in March 2022 led to dangerous intensification of the war that has cost the lives of hundreds of thousands of people, especially young people, deeply traumatized a young generation and inflicted the most severe mental and physical wounds on them. Ukraine has been exposed to enormous destruction, internal displacements, and mass impoverishment. This si accompanied by a large-scale depopulation of the country. Not only Russia, but also NATO and the West bear a heavy share of the blame for this disaster.

6) Ukraine’s negotiating position today is far worse than it was in March 2022. Ukraine will now lose large parts of its territory.

7. The blocking of the peace negotiations at that time has harmed everyone: Russia and Europe – but above all the people of Ukraine, who are paying with their blood the price for the ambitions of the major powers and will probably get nothing in return.

A detailed reconstruction of events in March 2022
Hajo Funke and Harald Kujat

HOW THE CHANCE WAS LOST FOR A PEACE SETTLEMENT OF THE UKRAINE WAR
AND THE WEST WANTED TO CONTINUE THE WAR INSTEAD



Berlin, October 2023

In March 2022, direct peace negotiations between Ukrainian and Russian delegations and mediation efforts by the then Israeli Prime Minster, Naftali Bennet created a genuine chance for ending the war peacefully only four to five weeks after Russia had invaded Ukraine. However, instead of ending the war through negotiations as Ukrainian President Zelensky and his government appeared to have wanted, he ultimately bowed to pressures from some Western powers to abandon a negotiated solution. Western powers wanted this war to continue in the hope to break Russia. Ukraine’s decision to abandon negotiations may been taken before the discovery of a massacre of civilians in the town of Bucha near Kiev.

In the following is an attempt of a step-by-step reconstruction of the events that led to the peace negotiations in March and their collapse in early April 2022.

(sigue)

[el malo]

De Michael von der Schulenburg

Image
The British Prime Minister’s fateful visit to Kiev on 9 April 2022



This is a detailed reconstruction of the Ukrainian-Russian peace negotiations in March 2022 and the associated mediation attempts by the then Israeli Prime Minister, Naftali Bennett, supported by President Erdogan and former German Chancellor Schröder. It was drawn up by retired General H. Kujat and Professor Emeritus H. Funke, two of the initiators of the recently presented peace plan for Ukraine. And it is also in connection with their peace plan that this reconstruction is so extremely important. It reminds us that we cannot afford to delay ceasefire and peace negotiations again. The human and military situation in Ukraine deteriorates dramatically, with the added danger that it could lead to a further escalation of the war. We need a diplomatic solution to this cruel war for Europe and the Ukraine – and we need it now!

From the detailed reconstruction of the March peace efforts 6 conclusions emerge:

1. Just one month after the start of the Russian military intervention in Ukraine, Ukrainian and Russian negotiators had come very close to an agreement for a ceasefire and to an outline for a comprehensive peace solution to the conflict.

2) In contrast to today, President Zelensky and his government had made great efforts to negotiate peace with Russia and bring the war to a quick end.

3) Contrary to Western interpretations, Ukraine and Russia agreed at the time that the planned NATO expansion was the reason for the war. They therefore focused their peace negotiations on Ukraine’s neutrality and its renunciation of NATO membership. In return, Ukraine would have retained its territorial integrity except for Crimea.

4) There is little doubt that these peace negotiations failed due to resistance from NATO and in particular from the USA and the UK. The reasons is that such a peace agreement would have been tantamount to a defeat for NATO, an end to NATO’s eastward expansion and thus an end to the dream of a unipolar world dominated by the USA.

5. The failure of the peace negotiations in March 2022 led to dangerous intensification of the war that has cost the lives of hundreds of thousands of people, especially young people, deeply traumatized a young generation and inflicted the most severe mental and physical wounds on them. Ukraine has been exposed to enormous destruction, internal displacements, and mass impoverishment. This si accompanied by a large-scale depopulation of the country. Not only Russia, but also NATO and the West bear a heavy share of the blame for this disaster.

6) Ukraine’s negotiating position today is far worse than it was in March 2022. Ukraine will now lose large parts of its territory.

7. The blocking of the peace negotiations at that time has harmed everyone: Russia and Europe – but above all the people of Ukraine, who are paying with their blood the price for the ambitions of the major powers and will probably get nothing in return.

A detailed reconstruction of events in March 2022
Hajo Funke and Harald Kujat

HOW THE CHANCE WAS LOST FOR A PEACE SETTLEMENT OF THE UKRAINE WAR
AND THE WEST WANTED TO CONTINUE THE WAR INSTEAD



Berlin, October 2023

In March 2022, direct peace negotiations between Ukrainian and Russian delegations and mediation efforts by the then Israeli Prime Minster, Naftali Bennet created a genuine chance for ending the war peacefully only four to five weeks after Russia had invaded Ukraine. However, instead of ending the war through negotiations as Ukrainian President Zelensky and his government appeared to have wanted, he ultimately bowed to pressures from some Western powers to abandon a negotiated solution. Western powers wanted this war to continue in the hope to break Russia. Ukraine’s decision to abandon negotiations may been taken before the discovery of a massacre of civilians in the town of Bucha near Kiev.

In the following is an attempt of a step-by-step reconstruction of the events that led to the peace negotiations in March and their collapse in early April 2022.

(sigue)

Lo que muchos llevamos diciendo desde el primer minuto.

Llegará el día en que Zelensky tenga que salir por pies de su propio país para no volver nunca más. Y no serán los rusos los que quieran "colgarle por los pies", serán los propios ucranianos.

[sudden and sharp]

[...] Lo que muchos llevamos diciendo desde el primer minuto.

Eso es precisamente lo sospechoso... que lo decíais ya desde el primer minuto.     

[copo]

De Michael von der Schulenburg

Image
The British Prime Minister’s fateful visit to Kiev on 9 April 2022



This is a detailed reconstruction of the Ukrainian-Russian peace negotiations in March 2022 and the associated mediation attempts by the then Israeli Prime Minister, Naftali Bennett, supported by President Erdogan and former German Chancellor Schröder. It was drawn up by retired General H. Kujat and Professor Emeritus H. Funke, two of the initiators of the recently presented peace plan for Ukraine. And it is also in connection with their peace plan that this reconstruction is so extremely important. It reminds us that we cannot afford to delay ceasefire and peace negotiations again. The human and military situation in Ukraine deteriorates dramatically, with the added danger that it could lead to a further escalation of the war. We need a diplomatic solution to this cruel war for Europe and the Ukraine – and we need it now!

From the detailed reconstruction of the March peace efforts 6 conclusions emerge:

1. Just one month after the start of the Russian military intervention in Ukraine, Ukrainian and Russian negotiators had come very close to an agreement for a ceasefire and to an outline for a comprehensive peace solution to the conflict.

2) In contrast to today, President Zelensky and his government had made great efforts to negotiate peace with Russia and bring the war to a quick end.

3) Contrary to Western interpretations, Ukraine and Russia agreed at the time that the planned NATO expansion was the reason for the war. They therefore focused their peace negotiations on Ukraine’s neutrality and its renunciation of NATO membership. In return, Ukraine would have retained its territorial integrity except for Crimea.

4) There is little doubt that these peace negotiations failed due to resistance from NATO and in particular from the USA and the UK. The reasons is that such a peace agreement would have been tantamount to a defeat for NATO, an end to NATO’s eastward expansion and thus an end to the dream of a unipolar world dominated by the USA.

5. The failure of the peace negotiations in March 2022 led to dangerous intensification of the war that has cost the lives of hundreds of thousands of people, especially young people, deeply traumatized a young generation and inflicted the most severe mental and physical wounds on them. Ukraine has been exposed to enormous destruction, internal displacements, and mass impoverishment. This si accompanied by a large-scale depopulation of the country. Not only Russia, but also NATO and the West bear a heavy share of the blame for this disaster.

6) Ukraine’s negotiating position today is far worse than it was in March 2022. Ukraine will now lose large parts of its territory.

7. The blocking of the peace negotiations at that time has harmed everyone: Russia and Europe – but above all the people of Ukraine, who are paying with their blood the price for the ambitions of the major powers and will probably get nothing in return.

A detailed reconstruction of events in March 2022
Hajo Funke and Harald Kujat

HOW THE CHANCE WAS LOST FOR A PEACE SETTLEMENT OF THE UKRAINE WAR
AND THE WEST WANTED TO CONTINUE THE WAR INSTEAD



Berlin, October 2023

In March 2022, direct peace negotiations between Ukrainian and Russian delegations and mediation efforts by the then Israeli Prime Minster, Naftali Bennet created a genuine chance for ending the war peacefully only four to five weeks after Russia had invaded Ukraine. However, instead of ending the war through negotiations as Ukrainian President Zelensky and his government appeared to have wanted, he ultimately bowed to pressures from some Western powers to abandon a negotiated solution. Western powers wanted this war to continue in the hope to break Russia. Ukraine’s decision to abandon negotiations may been taken before the discovery of a massacre of civilians in the town of Bucha near Kiev.

In the following is an attempt of a step-by-step reconstruction of the events that led to the peace negotiations in March and their collapse in early April 2022.

(sigue)

Lo que muchos llevamos diciendo desde el primer minuto.

Llegará el día en que Zelensky tenga que salir por pies de su propio país para no volver nunca más. Y no serán los rusos los que quieran "colgarle por los pies", serán los propios ucranianos.

Harald Kujat. Buscando dos segundos el punto de vista de este señor es cuestionable.

En fin. Que ni creo que Europa le interese la guerra, ni depende de nosotros.

Saludos.

[el malo]

[...] Lo que muchos llevamos diciendo desde el primer minuto.

Eso es precisamente lo sospechoso... que lo decíais ya desde el primer minuto.     

Me has pillado camarada Sudden.. soy un agente ruso en el extranjero encargado de propaganda y desinformación 

Algún día se sabrá lo que BoJo le prometió a Zelensky en esa reunión.. y lo que se tomó Zelensky, que entró como un corderito manso y salió como un rinoceronte puesto de esteroides.. "hasta el último ucraniano"

Harald Kujat. Buscando dos segundos el punto de vista de este señor es cuestionable.

En fin. Que ni creo que Europa le interese la guerra, ni depende de nosotros.

Saludos.

Argumento ad hominem. Que lo diga Harald Kujat o su Sanchidad en persona no invalida la secuencia de los hechos, ni que Ucrania iba a firmar la paz con Rusia antes de haber pegado un sólo tiro.

Ahora Ucrania está destrozada, sin juventud, y seguramente perderá territorio en favor de Rusia para alcanzar un acuerdo de paz.

Que el resto de Ucrania se una a la OTAN o no está por ver. Teniendo bases en Letonia, Estonia y Lituania (a menos de 700 kilómetros de Moscú)  ¿De verdad nos interesan bases OTAN en un territorio en el que los mandos militares se venden por un coche nuevo? Ni Putin hubiera diseñado un Caballo de Troya mejor.

[Karunel]

En fin. Que ni creo que Europa le interese la guerra, ni depende de nosotros.

En eso aciertas. Pero a Rusia tampoco le interesaba, de hecho no le interesaba a casi nadie. Casi.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://elpais.com/internacional/2023-12-28/ucrania-alerta-de-que-dejara-sin-salario-a-dos-millones-de-funcionarios-si-no-recibe-ya-la-ayuda-de-occidente.html

Saludos.

[saturno]

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/how-russia-stopped-ukraines-momentum

How Russia Stopped Ukraine’s Momentum
A Deep Defense Is Hard to Beat
By Stephen Biddle
January 29, 2024

STEPHEN BIDDLE is Professor of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs and Adjunct Senior Fellow for Defense Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations. He is the author of Military Power: Explaining Victory and Defeat in Modern Battle.

[sudden and sharp]

[saturno]

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-21824-avdeevka-liberated

Caida de Avdeevka (Avdeyevka). Es oficial.



Todos los detalles (en v/EN), inclusive identificación de prisioneros.

Pero no sólo:

    "The powers of the President of Ukraine expire on the night of May 20-21, 2024 and cannot be extended, while those of the Verkhovna Rada can. After May 20, the Rada will be legitimate, but the president will be not," Dubinsky wrote in his Telegram channel.

Encuesta INSA en Alemania de feb.2024 comparando con feb.2023.

[saturno]

The Ukraine War Runs on Prevarication
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/the-ukraine-war-runs-on-lies/

James W. Carden
Feb 17, 2024 12:05 AM

Strobe Talbott, a former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State and president of the Brookings Institution, believes that Putin’s “endgame” is to recreate “the Russian Empire with himself as tsar.” Kathryn Stoner of Stanford is of the opinion that “this is a war on Ukraine’s democracy and has nothing to do with Russian fears of it one day joining NATO.” While readers of a recent article in the New Republic would learn that “Putin has actually made it pretty clear why he invaded Ukraine: He wants to force the country to rejoin Russia, in an effort to reestablish the Soviet Union.”

If we are being lied to about the causes of the war, are we also then being misled about what is at stake in eastern Ukraine? Probably. Here the parallel with the government’s mendacity during the war in Vietnam period becomes too obvious to ignore.

Recall in the first case that the template, that of the Cold War, is essentially unchanged, even in some of the particulars, not least in the comparisons of Ngo Dinh Diem and Volodymyr Zelensky to Winston Churchill. The South Vietnamese government (avaricious, corrupt) had the right to American arms by virtue of its right “to determine [the nation’s] future.” The Ukrainian government (avaricious, corrupt) likewise has the right, we are endlessly told, to be allowed to “shape its own destiny.”

Thanks to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Domino Theory, long derided in the years following Vietnam, has made a comeback. Thus, President Biden’s declaration on December 6, “If Putin takes Ukraine, he won’t stop there. It’s important to see the long run here. He’s going to keep going…. Then we’ll have something that we don’t seek and that we don’t have today: American troops fighting Russian troops,” echoes that made by President Johnson in July 1965:

    This is really war. It is guided by North Viet-Nam and it is spurred by Communist China. Its goal is to conquer the South, to defeat American power, and to extend the Asiatic dominion of communism. There are great stakes in the balance. Most of the non-Communist nations of Asia cannot, by themselves and alone, resist the growing might and the grasping ambition of Asian communism.

Following the publication of the Pentagon Papers in 1971, the philosopher Hannah Arendt observed during the Vietnam era, “the policy of lying was hardly ever aimed at the enemy…but was destined chiefly if not exclusively, for domestic consumption, for propaganda at home and especially for the purpose of deceiving Congress.” Two years on, we citizens have been serially lied to by the Biden administration and the media about the war’s causes, its stakes, and its progress. The question that should, but of course will not, be addressed in the aftermath of this latest American misadventure abroad is: Will we ever learn?

About The Author
James W. Carden

James W. Carden served as advisor on U.S.-Russian affairs at the State Department during the Obama administration.

(¿Cómo es posible que en nuestros medios no sea posible leer esto?)

[saturno]

https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/4481154-ukraine-can-no-longer-win/

Ukraine can no longer win
by Joe Buccino, Opinion Contributor - 02/22/24 10:10 AM ET

As the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion nears, and the latest aid package for Ukraine stalls in Congress, we must be clear-eyed about the future.

There is no path for Ukraine to win this war. American support will not change this reality.

Two years ago, the Ukrainian Armed Forces defied expectations immediately. Days before Russia’s massive combined arms incursion, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley spoke for the U.S. military when he predicted to Congress that Kyiv would fall within 72 hours.

Many military analysts similarly predicted the Russian Armed Forces would quickly rout the overmatched Ukrainians. American leaders encouraged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to leave the country, lest Russian troops assassinate him.

These projections of immediate success for Russia misread the progress Ukraine had made in capability and readiness since Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea. They also overestimated the Russian forces’ readiness, air superiority, and command cohesion.

One year ago, all signs were encouraging. Ukrainian forces had been bloodied, but they held on to territory in the east in defiance of expectations. Successful counteroffensives allowed Ukraine to regain territory in the south. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy defiantly declared the coming year one of “our invincibility.” American aid to the country offered a king’s ransom in artillery and anti-tank weapons through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, and the flow seemed unceasing.

Inspired by Ukraine’s stunning success against the much larger and more advanced military, the West galvanized behind Zelensky and his troops. Tragically, all these indicators led to unrealistic expectations.

Today, the situation is grim. The fighting has slowed to a cruel slog that works to Russia’s favor. Ukraine runs low on troops and munitions, while Russia maintains both in plenty. The long-planned, high-risk, months-long Ukrainian spring 2023 counteroffensive failed, with Ukraine unable to regain territory seized by Russia. Support for Zelensky in Ukraine and the West has finally slipped. American aid is logjammed in Congress, and the U.S. seems tired of funding the war.

Over much of the past two years, following those predictions of immediate Russian victory, analysts and policymakers have gone in the other direction with a new set of misjudgments: that the Russian Army is a paper tiger; that the generals will turn on Putin; that Ukraine will bleed Russia out in Donbass.

The reality, two years in, is that there is no path to victory for Ukraine, at least not in the sense of pushing Russian troops back to 2021 lines of control. After Ukrainian troops abandoned Avdiivka following some of the war’s heaviest fighting — the most significant loss or gain by either side in nine months — almost all advantages accrue to Russia.

The seizure of Avdiivka does not materially change the war, but it does change the momentum. Moscow can throw mass in terms of bodies, tanks, artillery, and drones at exhausted Ukrainian forces until they crack. Ukraine is exhausted and outnumbered, struggling to recruit new troops. The best Ukraine can do now is fight Russia to a negotiated settlement that allows it to keep its sovereignty, territorial integrity, and security against another Russian invasion. Even these provisions may now seem unrealistic.

In the first year after the full-scale Russian invasion — February 2022 to February 2023 — Ukrainian troops overcame massive disadvantages in technology and mass. They did so mainly with American Javelins, Stingers, and Multiple Launch Rocket Systems.

During that period, Ukraine had largely bipartisan support in D.C. Throughout the following year, American aid — including dozens of tanks, more than a hundred Bradley Fighting Vehicles, and more than a hundred Strykers — kept Ukraine in the fight. During this period, support among Republicans in Congress began to wane.

It is clear that even if the House approves the current proposed aid package, the flow of weapons is coming to a close. Without a continuing stream of those weapons, Ukraine will ultimately fall. Even the F-16 fighter jets that the U.S. will ship to Ukraine in the coming months will not turn the tide. F-16s require long, smooth runways; the fighter aircraft will struggle to land and take off on Ukraine’s bombed-out runways.

Russia also has the advantage of time. While Putin can lead Russia along a single strategic trajectory regardless of the length of the war, the U.S. is subject to the whims of democracy. The White House and seats in Congress change hands. Policies change as voters grow weary of supporting other countries.

Geopolitics changes fast. The upheavals in the world over the past two years distracted the U.S. from supporting Ukraine. Hamas’s stunning and savage infiltration into Israeli territory last October, and Israel’s gruesome retaliation, became the primary international focus of the White House and Congress. Iran began a low-grade war against the U.S. through its proxy forces in Iraq and Syria. China promised to invade Taiwan. All of these cataclysms require attention and money — elements in limited supply — otherwise spent on Ukraine.

Adding to the uncertainty is the looming U.S. presidential election this year. Donald Trump, Biden’s most prominent challenger, harbors a deep distrust of NATO. His recent remarks reinforce this, suggesting leniency toward Russia for acting against NATO members who fail to meet their treaty obligations.

Given all these headwinds and the enormous strategic stakes involved, it is critical to consider the path forward in light of the shifting dynamics.

In considering an aid package to Ukraine, Washington policymakers and their constituents must assess how long the cash and weapons will continue to flow and toward what end. Getting to a favorable or at least even negotiated settlement will take more than a year of fighting. Putin has no incentive to stop fighting and every incentive to continue pushing and waiting for his adversaries to run out of troops and munitions, and for policymakers in the U.S. to run out of patience.

None of this is fair to the people of Ukraine, who have placed their hopes of sovereignty on America’s commitment to them. It is, however, the tragic reality of the situation.

The $60 billion aid package held up in Congress will not significantly change the future. This fight is a long haul one that will require additional aid. The spigot will close at some point — perhaps soon — turning off aid and sealing Ukraine’s fate.

Col. (ret.) Joe Buccino is a research analyst at the Defense Innovation Board and a former communications director at U.S. Central Command. He served as the communications director for the NATO support mission in Europe from February to November 2022. His opinions do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense or any other organization.

[R.G.C.I.M.]

Ya nos están preparando para antes del verano negociaciones.
Siempre que quede algo a lo que llamar ucrania, occidente dirá que ha vencido y putin ( que no rusia) no logró sus objetivos.
Y sudden nos lo recordará .


Sds.

Sds.

[sudden and sharp]

Ya nos están preparando para antes del verano negociaciones.
Siempre que quede algo a lo que llamar ucrania, occidente dirá que ha vencido y putin ( que no rusia) no logró sus objetivos.
Y sudden nos lo recordará .


Sds.

Sds.

Desde luego ... 

[Currobena]

Ya nos están preparando para antes del verano negociaciones.
Siempre que quede algo a lo que llamar ucrania, occidente dirá que ha vencido y putin ( que no rusia) no logró sus objetivos.
Y sudden nos lo recordará .


Sds.

Sds.

Me sorprendería, creo que es una guerra de desgaste que se va a alargar varios años todavía. Pero es solo una opinión personal, sin más.