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El diario El Mundo ha destapado una parte de los relatos de los afectados por esta intoxicación. Las alucinaciones provocadas por la droga en mal estado han sido varias: “Freír huevos en Fairy, rociarse los brazos con insecticida al creer que estaban llenos de cucarachas, ver que le perseguían unos enanos que le pedían dinero o creer que su casa estaba «llena de negros”
Former Fed official warns of ‘urgent’ threat of another financial crisisDon Kohn calls on Congress to pass financial stability mandates for regulatorsInvestors cheered Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday, with markets interpreting it to mean that the central bank would not too quickly wind down its support of the economy. But not every speaker at the annual gathering gave cause for optimism.Don Kohn, the Fed’s former vice chair for financial supervision, used the opportunity instead to warn of imminent risks to the stability of the global financial system, and called on regulators and lawmakers to take swift action to address those concerns.“Dealing with risks to the financial stability is urgent,” he said during a speech to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. “The current situation is replete with…unusually large risks of the unexpected, which, if they come to pass, could result in the financial system amplifying shocks, putting the economy at risk.”Kohn pointed to the minutes of the most recent Federal Reserve meeting, which indicated that members of the bank’s interest-rate setting committee saw there were “notable” vulnerabilities in the financial system as asset values have risen to historical highs and government and private debt have reached near-record levels relative to the size of the economy.Despite these excesses, investors don’t appear concerned, as evidenced by low interest rates on a wide range of government TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.284% and corporate debt “even though a disproportionate increase in private debt has been among lower-rated business borrowers,’ he said.What’s more, Kohn said, the government appears to be in a poor position to respond to an economic downturn that could result from a bursting of an asset bubble or a debt crisis, given that the Federal Reserve is already engaged in aggressive monetary stimulus, while the federal government is maintaining a historically high budget deficit.Kohn’s wariness about the state of the economy and financial markets is shared among many high-profile investors, with GMO co-founder Jeremy Grantham being one of the most high profile advocates of this point of view. In June, he argued the Fed should “act to deflate all asset prices as carefully as [it can], knowing that an earlier decline, however painful, would be smaller and less dangerous than waiting.”Unlike such bubble-watchers as Grantham, however, Kohn is not laying the blame for high debt and asset prices at the feet of Fed policy. Rather, he is arguing that the central bank must prepare now for a potential bubble bursting through prudential regulation.(...)
China Commentary Calls Xi’s Crackdown a ‘Profound Revolution’(Bloomberg) -- A commentary published widely in Chinese state-run media described President Xi Jinping’s regulatory crackdown as a “profound revolution” sweeping the country and warned that anyone who resisted would face punishment. “This is a return from the capital group to the masses of the people, and this is a transformation from capital-centered to people-centered,” the commentary said, adding that it marked a return to the original intention of the Communist Party. “Therefore, this is a political change, and the people are becoming the main body of this change again, and all those who block this people-centered change will be discarded.”The opinion piece was originally published by a WeChat blogger who goes by the name “Li Guangman Ice Point Commentary.” In an unusual move that indicated official support, it was reposted online by major state-run media outlets including Communist Party mouthpiece People’s Daily, Xinhua News Agency, PLA Daily, CCTV, China Youth Daily and China News Service.Xi’s campaign calling for “common prosperity” has intensified in recent weeks, with agencies vowing to step up tax enforcement, crack down on labor abuses and take action against “fan culture” in the entertainment industry. The measures have roiled markets, with a measure of price swings in the country’s shares last week soaring to the highest level in 16 months. The author wrote that high housing prices and medical costs will become the next targets of the campaign. While the piece reiterated comments from prominent Chinese economists last week that the campaign would not “kill the rich to help the poor,” it said the government needed to “combat the chaos of big capital.” “The capital market will no longer become a paradise for capitalists to get rich overnight,” the commentary said. “The cultural market will no longer be a paradise for sissy stars, and news and public opinion will no longer be in a position worshiping Western culture.”The piece finished by connecting the increasingly “complicated” external environment China faces to what it characterized as “brutal and ferocious” attacks by the U.S. The author suggested, without providing an explanation, that if China relied on capitalists to fight imperialism it could suffer the same fate as the Soviet Union.
Fed Faces New Challenge Spelling Out Employment GoalsCovid-19 pandemic has complicated the Fed’s task of determining when the economy is at ‘maximum employment’ and when to raise interest ratesFederal Reserve officials are talking more about how to define a fuzzy concept—maximum employment—that will heavily influence their thinking around how much longer to keep interest rates near zero.Favorable hiring conditions, as seen in record levels of job openings and job quitting, suggest “job seekers should help the economy cover the considerable remaining ground to reach maximum employment,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said in a speech Friday at the Kansas City Fed’s annual economic policy symposium.Assessing maximum employment, often described as the unemployment rate consistent with stable inflation, will be a delicate task for the Fed because officials concluded, in retrospect, that they overestimated it during the previous expansion and possibly raised interest rates too soon.(...)
The Death of the Starter Home?(...) This is the proportion of new houses sold in the United States going back to 2002 broken out by various price points:New home sales at $200k and under were as high as 60% of total new houses sold in 2002 at one point. In July of this year, that cohort accounted for just 2% of new home sales. New homes of half a million dollars and up were just 3% of sales in 2002 but nearly 30% in June of this year.There is an obvious trend of new homes being built at higher price points.There are a few explanations for this trend.For one, there were simply more houses being built back then. Here is the same breakdown by price point but instead of the proportion of total houses sold, this one shows the absolute number of new homes built:This number is finally creeping higher but it is still well below the early 2000s boom.What if the number of starter homes being built back then had more to do with the housing bubble than anything? What if that period was the outlier?The higher price point for new homes is also being driven by the experience homebuilders had following the housing market crash. Builders went overboard in the housing bubble and were left holding the bag. There are still lingering scars.It makes sense homebuilders have moved up to higher-priced homes that have better margins and buyers with higher credit scores.The $200k to $400k range of new home sales averaged 35% of the total in 2002. So far in 2021, it’s more like 54%. Unfortunately, for new home buyers that might be the updated threshold for a new build.If you want an affordable new home it may have to come in the form of a rental built by an institutional investor (listen to our podcast with Fundrise CEO Ben Miller for more on this trend).There’s also a huge factor at play that we simply can’t ignore in this equation — mortgage rates.I hate to play this card every single time1 but let’s adjust the monthly payments by interest rates to see how much that changes things.The average 30 year fixed mortgage rate in 2002 was 6.5%. This year the average is 2.9%. This makes an enormous difference in monthly payments:Monthly payments are almost 35% lower at today’s interest rate levels versus the rates in 2002.Of course prices are going to be higher!Rates have allowed buyers to move up their price points. Yes, taxes and down payments are higher too but lower mortgage rates have allowed homebuyers to build pricier homes with little-to-no inflation in their monthly payments.People can afford more home at today’s rates. The monthly payment for a $400k house is now lower than the monthly payment for a $300k home in 2002.If we take this to the extreme — the monthly payment for a $1,000,000 home is now $520 lower than the monthly payment for a $750,000 home in 2002.Add in fewer homes being built, a touch of inflation, scarred homebuilders, HGTV messing with our expectations and it’s no wonder new home sales prices have risen over the past 20 years.This doesn’t necessarily mean the starter home is dead. It just means those looking for a new starter home at lower prices are going to have to adjust their expectations. And they’re likely going to be buying an existing home rather than a new build.
The wealthy - not the Fed - are to blame for low interest rates and rising inequality, study saysIt's inequality that dragged interest rates lower, not the other way around, NBER researchers said Friday.Wealthy Americans' ballooning savings over the last two decades fueled interest rates' decline, they find.Lower rates lift asset values and help the rich get richer, an expert says. Or in other words, "inequality begets inequality!"(...) The problem, as Insider has previously reported, is that low interest rates not only support the economy, they help the wealthy enjoy significant appreciation of their investments. As the Fed padded against the pandemic's fallout, the country's top earners padded their wallets.The Fed has taken flak for the trend, with economists warning that near-zero rates worsen inequality. But what if that narrative is wrong, and the wealthy are behind rates' steady decline instead of the Fed?The conventional argument should be flipped on its head, according to a study published Friday by the National Bureau for Economic Research. Wealthy Americans' booming income powered the decades-long decline in interest rates, economists Atif Mian, Ludwig Straub, and Amir Sufi wrote. That downtrend then lifted stocks and most recently powered the market's rebound from 2020 lows."It is a vicious cycle, and we are stuck in it," Mian wrote in a Tuesday tweet. In other words, it may not be the Fed's fault, which means it will be much harder to solve.The team of researchers focused on the natural rate of interest, or r* (r-star), which is meant to foster ideal hiring conditions while also keeping price growth under control.The novel aspect of the research is the argument that this natural rate has steadily declined for nearly five decades due to ballooning savings piles around the world - after all, to keep massive savings from overstimulating the economy, the Fed had to keep rates at extraordinary lows.That places the Fed in a precarious spot. Lifting interest rates to counter the decline would likely drag the economy into a recession by discouraging borrowing. But keeping rates at such low levels leaves the central bank with limited ability to further stimulate the economy in times of crisis.That decline in r* worsened inequality by lifting stocks and other assets, but the wealth gap likely powered the downtrend in the first place, the researchers found. To start, rich Americans have counted for an increasingly large share of total earnings. The top 10% of earners took home roughly 45% of all US income by 2020, up from just 30% in the 1970s, according to the study.The leap in earnings translated into larger cash piles. Roughly 40% of all private savings were held by the country's top earners in 2019, up from 30% in 1995. That equates to trillions of dollars in cash.The savings glut that's dragging the natural rate lower, then, is largely held by the rich. And the rich have benefited from this situation they created."Since it is the very rich who own most of the assets, a fall in interest rates makes them richer," Mian said. "Inequality begets inequality!"To be sure, it's unclear just how much the savings glut is powering the natural rate's decline. The downtrend isn't exclusive to the US, signaling factors other than income inequality are dragging on the rate.The researchers only noted that data supports income inequality being "an important factor" in the decline, not the sole driver. They also somewhat hinged the hypothesis on forecasts, saying its "relative strength ... is perhaps best measured by looking into the future."Regardless, the researchers' study underscores just how difficult reversing inequality can be, and how ingrained the wealth gap has become in the modern American economy.
Los concursos de acreedores se disparan hasta julio un 67% y alcanzan niveles de 2014A nivel regional, Cataluña lidera en los siete primeros meses del año los concursos de acreedores, con un total de 1.070 (+82,3%)La declaración del Estado de alarma el año pasado como consecuencia de la Covid-19 produjo una reducción de los concursos de acreedores por las restricciones y la paralización de los registros mercantiles, pero en los últimos meses la situación ha cambiado y los concursos se han disparado, pese a la moratoria concursal aprobada por el Gobierno hasta final de año.La crisis y los efectos de las restricciones en las empresas han provocado un aumento de estos procesos del 67% en los siete primeros meses del año, hasta los 3.802 concursos, lo que da buena cuenta de la continuidad del daño económico pese a la reactivación económica y la moratoria concursal, según un estudio realizado y publicado este lunes por Informa D&B, compañía filial de Cesce.Solo en el mes de julio se registraron 619 concursos, un 24,8% más que el año pasado y la segunda más cifra en lo que va de año, solo superado por marzo (630), los dos meses en los que la cifra de estos procesos ha superado los 600, algo que no sucedía desde octubre de 2014.La directora de Estudios de Informa D&B, Nathalie Gianese, explica que aunque el número de concursos desde enero ha crecido un 67% no se ha alcanzado el aumento esperado por la crisis sanitaria debido a la moratoria concursal.(...)
60 per cent of all properties sold in London hit by down valuationsNearly 400,000 UK property transactions have been down valued in the last year alone, according to research by London lettings agent Benham and Reeves, shared with City A.M. this morning.At 59 per cent, London is home to some of the largest levels of down valued homes of all UK areas and it also ranks third in terms of the sheer volume of transactions impacted.The firm estimates that 47,769 of the 80,965 homes sold across the capital in the last year would have been subject to a down valuation.(...)
China Evergrande Says Construction of Some Projects Has Stalled, Warns of Possible DefaultCash-strapped real-estate developer posts 29% drop in profit for first half of this yearHONG KONG—Cash-strapped China Evergrande Group said work has been suspended on some of its real-estate projects after it delayed payments to its suppliers and contractors, showing how the developer’s financial troubles have spilled over into its business operations.The highly indebted company on Tuesday also warned for the first time that it may default on its borrowings if it can’t resolve its liquidity problems.Evergrande, one of China’s largest residential developers, said it has been selling assets and apartment units to raise cash. The group also said that “with the coordination and support of the government,” it is actively negotiating with suppliers and construction companies to try to get them to resume work on its properties.“The group will do its utmost to continue its operations and endeavor to deliver properties to customers as scheduled,” Hong Kong-listed Evergrande said in a regulatory filing.To resolve some of its payables, Evergrande said it recently sold property units to suppliers and contractors to set off around $3.9 billion in outstanding payments.(...)
China Evergrande warns of default risks, H1 profit more than doubles
Ya iban dando pistas... El siguiente paso es ir a un procedimiento ordenado de suspensión de pagos y concurso de acreedores.https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-evergrande-says-construction-of-some-projects-has-stalled-warns-of-possible-default-11630412380?mod=rss_markets_mainCitarChina Evergrande Says Construction of Some Projects Has Stalled, Warns of Possible DefaultCash-strapped real-estate developer posts 29% drop in profit for first half of this yearHONG KONG—Cash-strapped China Evergrande Group said work has been suspended on some of its real-estate projects after it delayed payments to its suppliers and contractors, showing how the developer’s financial troubles have spilled over into its business operations.The highly indebted company on Tuesday also warned for the first time that it may default on its borrowings if it can’t resolve its liquidity problems.Evergrande, one of China’s largest residential developers, said it has been selling assets and apartment units to raise cash. The group also said that “with the coordination and support of the government,” it is actively negotiating with suppliers and construction companies to try to get them to resume work on its properties.“The group will do its utmost to continue its operations and endeavor to deliver properties to customers as scheduled,” Hong Kong-listed Evergrande said in a regulatory filing.To resolve some of its payables, Evergrande said it recently sold property units to suppliers and contractors to set off around $3.9 billion in outstanding payments.(...)https://www.reuters.com/article/china-evergrande-results/update-1-china-evergrande-warns-of-default-risks-h1-profit-more-than-doubles-idUSL1N2Q20M2CitarChina Evergrande warns of default risks, H1 profit more than doubles
¿Qué es el Nasdaq?¿Y el SP500?¿Qué son actualmente?Pues son una forma de apostar por tipos de interés bajos, son inversiones de las denominadas "largas en duración", índices formados por empresas cuyo valor actual está formado principalmente por beneficios muy lejanos en el tiempo, no importa que ahora tengan muchos beneficios o no, importa que la mayor parte de su valor no se debe a los beneficios de los dos o tres próximos años sino a sus expectativas de incremento de beneficios a más largo plazo.Aquí entran tanto las FAANG como Tesla o la que usted elija, da igual si tienen beneficios presentes o pérdidas.La situación actual es que se han completado todas las etapas previas para llegar a un fin de ciclo bursátil, con los particulares especulando como locos e incluso recibiendo dinero gratis para hacerlo, con una extensión del ciclo brutal.Es tal la extensión del ciclo que el mercado ya no puede parar, o sube o revienta, los tipos de interés ya no pueden parar, o siguen bajando o todo revienta.La situación es inestable, en cuanto los tipos de interés de la deuda norteamericana dejen de bajar y bajar y bajar será suficiente para desencadenar el proceso, tuvimos un amago hace poco pero pasó algo raro, en mitad de una subida de tipos de los bonos norteamericanos comenzaron a darse cifras de inflación cada vez más altas... y los tipos se dieron la vuelta volvieron a mínimos históricos, estamos en valores de tipos reales negativos no vistos desde hace 40 años.¿Qué pasó?Pues pasó, que las élites políticas norteamericanas están "largas en duración", con sus dineros metidos en opciones sobre acciones de tesla, metidos en el SP y el Nasdaq hasta el fondo.¿Y qué fue lo que hicieron para detener la subida de tipos?Pues lo que hicieron fue bloquear el incremento del techo de deuda norteamericana, había una moratoria que eliminaba el techo de deuda que se aprobó con Trump en 2019, esto ocurrió cuando la deuda llegó a 22Billones, la moratoria duraba hasta el día 1 de agosto de 2021, en ese momento, se sumaba la deuda existente en 2019 (22B) y toda la deuda creada desde entonces (6,5B) y el total (28,5B) sería el nuevo techo de deuda.https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-debt-ceiling-deadline-expires-2021/https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEBTN¿Y qué más da?Pues que la FED no puede eliminar su programa de compra de deuda porque no sabe cuándo será necesario financiar al Tesoro Público norteamericano para que éste haga sus pagos.¿Y qué más da eso, acaso no está el Tesoro Público flotando en liquidez?Sí y no...:https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WDTGALA este paso no llegamos a fin de año sin suspender pagos.Ahora se explica la bajada de tipos aunque suba la inflación, no tiene nada que ver con las "expectativas de inflación", ni con que Powell sea respetado y todo el mundo apueste porque tiene razón con su "transitorialidad".Tiene que ver con que la FED está comprando una burrada de títulos de deuda al mes y el Tesoro no emite deuda nueva, con lo cual hay escasez de deuda, de ahí que la cuenta de reverse repo esté ya en 1,3 billones y subiendo, los bancos no encuentran deuda disponible para comprarla e invertir su liquidez y se la tienen que pedir prestada a un día a la FED:Reverse repo: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD/¿Y de dónde saca la FED esa deuda? pues la lleva comprando desde hace años, eso es el QE: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FDHBFRBN¿Y qué pasa cuando alguien compra por obligación, la FED y su QE y no hay suficiente producto en el mercado?Exacto, que sube de precio, por eso el interés baja.¿Y qué pasa si el Congreso (los que están invertidos "largos en duración" en el Nasdaq y SP) elimina el techo de deuda?Pues que el Tesoro puede, por fin, emitir deuda nueva.¿Y qué pasa si aparece nueva deuda en el mercado? Pues que baja el precio y, por tanto, sube el interés.Y entonces, por la magia del modelo de valoración de activos de la FED, se hunde la bolsa, ya que a quien más afecta una subida de tipos es a las inversiones con gran duración:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fed_modelEs decir, que no quieren elevar el techo de deuda porque se cae el chiringuito bursátil e inmobiliario (y de todo).Pero si no lo elevas, declaras suspensión de pagos antes de fin de año...¿Qué hacer?Pues recortar gasto.¿Dónde?¿En alguna guerra lejana?Un imperio replegándose por razones no militares, no estratégicas, simplemente pufos personales de sus patricios y senadores.