PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos-Otoño 2021

[breades]

Madrid tardará 15 años en saldar su déficit de pisos asequibles frente a los 22 de Barcelona

Transición estructural 2040.

https://www.vozpopuli.com/economia_y_finanzas/vivienda-5.html

Si es cierto, razón necesaria y suficiente para empezar a pegar hachazos vía decreto en los precios más pronto que tarde.

[Derby]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-great-resignation-is-ripping-through-the-restaurant-industry-162052446.html

The Great Resignation is ripping through the restaurant industry

The Great Resignation is beginning to create even more havoc for thinly staffed restaurant chains trying to rally back from being hammered during the pandemic.

This week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that quits rates in the food service industry hit 6.8%, compared to an overall quits rate of 2.9%. Guggenheim analyst Gregory Francfort notes the quits rate for food service is well above the 5% peaks seen in quits in 2006 and 2019, and 4.1% average over the past 20 years.

Nearly 4.3 million Americans quit their jobs in August as many people sought out higher wages amid the recovery from the pandemic, opted for lifestyle changes, or lacked affordable childcare.

"Workers continue to leave the retail and restaurant industries amid challenging demands put on existing staff due to labor shortages and other measures, such as mask requirements for customers. With the persistent high quits rate in these industries throughout the pandemic, both will remain constrained due to a lack of available people willing to work in these jobs. That will continue to weigh on overall employment given the size of both industries," opined DataTrek's Jessica Rabe in a research note to clients.

Domino's Pizza became first major restaurant chain to warn this week on the increasing impact of The Great Resignation.

The company saw sales fall in the third quarter after 41 straight quarters of U.S. same-store sales increases, ending one of the most impressive runs in the fast food industry. Top line sales missed estimates, too.

"Yes, staffing has been a challenge most certainly during the quarter as we highlighted," Domino's Pizza CEO Ritch Allison told analysts on a conference call. "What I can tell you is that when you look at the third quarter relative to the first half of the year, we certainly saw more of an impact in the system around some things like reduced operating hours and some challenges with respect to delivery service times in particular. And when we look at it in our own corporate store business, we certainly saw our staffing levels relative to ideal were lower than we saw during the first half of the year."

Domino's says it's raising wages at company-operated restaurants and speeding up new hire applications to address the issue.

Caribou Coffee CEO John Butcher tells Yahoo Finance Live he is also dealing with staffing challenges. The privately owned coffee chain has 718 stores to staff, but is also looking to accelerate its new store openings.

"I wish we could say we were immune from staffing challenges. We're not. We always see fall turnover when students go back to school and work. What we are seeing is the inbound applicant flow is less than it is typically," Butcher says. "I think there is a variety of reasons for that. But for the most part our team is faring pretty well. We have the extra challenge of having to staff our existing stores and then fuel all the growth we have coming for the next couple of years. We are ready. We have many of next store managers already on staff. It's just a daily battle."

Analysts believe it will be some time before the battle to secure workers for the industry cools down. In turn, that raises the risk of a stretch of mixed earnings reports for the sector into 2022.

"This pressure is not Domino’s specific and, in our view, should rather be a harbinger for the rest of earnings season," says Francfort.

The analyst joined several of his peers on Friday in cutting their sales and profit estimates on Domino's.

[Derby]

The global energy crisis has 4 possible paths through early 2022, says Bank of America

*The worldwide energy crisis unfolding has thrown markets into unprecedented turmoil.
*In Europe, natural gas prices are at record highs. And in China, thermal coal futures are also at all-time highs.
*Francisco Blanch of Bank of America provided Insider with four possible paths through early 2022.

(...) 1. A spike in energy prices will lead to an economic crash

Francisco likened the energy crunch today to the run-up in oil prices between 2007 to 2008.

At the start of 2007, Brent crude was at just $50 a barrel, then nearly doubled to $95.98 a barrel towards the end of the year. And by July 2008, prices soared to an all-time high of nearly $150 a barrel. But prices crashed spectacularly as the Great Recession took hold.

If a similar spike in oil happens again, Francisco said major industrial firms may just sharply decrease production activities or shut down altogether, which will ultimately lead to a recession.
In fact, surging energy prices have already forced some businesses, especially in Europe and Asia, to halt manufacturing.

2. More production, substitution

An increase in the prices of any good will prompt any producer to either ramp up their production or to find more affordable alternatives, Francisco said.

So far, US shale companies have indicated they plan to invest more money next year in domestic production. But they don't appear ready to unleash a flood of oil as investment remains constrained in favor of bigger shareholder returns.

Meanwhile, as natural gas and coal prices soar, some companies are shifting to using oil. That may add around 500,000 barrels a day to global demand, according to the International Energy Agency.

3. A warm winter that will temporarily cure the problem

Global energy prices are rising ahead of winter, when demand spikes for natural gas and coal to heat homes. Buyers across the globe are competing over a limited supply while energy prices remain high. The US Energy Information Administration on October 13 warned Americans to brace themselves for a heftier heating bill.

But what if we suddenly experience a warmer-than-expected winter? Demand will naturally slide, and the problem, according to Francisco said, would have momentarily cured itself "by chance."

4. A hike in interest rates that will slow down aggregate demand

Then there's the possibility that the central bank will slow down aggregate demand, Francisco said. This means allowing for somewhat higher interest rates and reduced quantitative easing, which will cool overall growth and energy consumption.

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/bb92d141-ccbb-4ac8-9ebe-aec0a13c1ef4

The UK approach to Northern Ireland is one of casual political vandalism
Frost’s huffing and puffing may be a negotiating tactic but it risks jeopardising peace and tipping Britain into a trade war

(...) The EU proposal now offers the basis for a negotiated solution to the gaps on the shelves that have riled ordinary people in Northern Ireland, but it does not solve the underlying problem of identity. Hard Brexit requires there to be a border somewhere, and the Unionists have a valid point in complaining that by putting it in the Irish Sea the government is undermining their British identity. But the only alternative is to put it on the island of Ireland and that would affect the identity of nationalists and Republicans. No one — not even the Unionists — has called for that. The border was always the insoluble problem of Brexit and it continues to be so.

Given that the British side has not put forward an alternative suggestion, we must assume that all the noise coming from their camp is just a negotiating tactic. Invoking Article 16 is not an alternative to implementing the protocol, it is just a route to yet more negotiations. Frost may be right when he says there are no dividends in endlessly talking about Brexit, but I am afraid we are condemned to many more years — probably decades — of Sisyphean negotiations with the EU.

We have seen this particular movie before. The recently published diary of Michel Barnier, the EU’s former Brexit negotiator, is replete with examples of Frost huffing and puffing and the EU staying calm and carrying on. Chances are that this is happening again and the outcome will be the same. In fact the history of the negotiations clearly demonstrates that such histrionics are completely counter-productive. They simply destroy trust, result in a worse agreement than would otherwise be possible and eventually force an embarrassing climbdown on the British side.

But there is another possibility. If the British government is really serious about refusing to implement the protocol and the border in the Irish Sea, then they risk tipping us into a full-scale trade war — and one in which the EU would retaliate against the UK as a whole. To pile this disruption on top of the existing fuel crisis, missing lorry drivers, backed up ports and shortage of agricultural workers would be an act of political suicide. I find it hard to believe that even Johnson’s government would ultimately opt for that course.

What I really object to however is the casual vandalism of the Northern Ireland peace process, something a previous generation of British politicians on both sides spent decades constructing.
Dominic Cummings’ tweets reveal how little regard Johnson had for the Good Friday Agreement when it came to signing up for the Withdrawal Agreement. The prime minister continues to play politics with the peace process by using the DUP as a battering ram in negotiations with the EU.
Having marched Jeffrey Donaldson, the DUP’s leader up to the top of the hill, Johnson is now going to have to find a way to march him down again without humiliation and the risk of losing votes to his right. Donaldson will remember that Johnson left his predecessor, Arlene Foster, standing at the altar with disastrous consequences for her leadership.

The threat Brexit posed in Northern Ireland was always more political than one of returning to the Troubles. But if Donaldson goes ahead with his threat to pull out of the power-sharing executive, then it will be exceedingly hard, if not impossible, to put the institutions up again in the foreseeable future. All of this is complicated by the Unionist fear of Sinn Féin winning the elections next year and taking the first minister position. That will lead to prolonged political crisis, reduced support for the devolved institutions and probably increased support for a united Ireland.

For the sake of the peace process and the British economy, let’s hope Frost is really just bluffing yet again.

The writer was chief British negotiator in NI from 1997-2007

https://www.libremercado.com/2021-10-17/los-camioneros-espanoles-huyen-de-reino-unido-no-van-ni-locos-6826990/?_ga=2.30224825.781122701.1634496686-79530948.1633426560

[sudden and sharp]

¿Alguien puede explicarme qué mierda es esta?

El FMI augura una inflación global prolongada si no se acelera la vacunación
https://www.efe.com/efe/america/economia/el-fmi-augura-una-inflacion-global-prolongada-si-no-se-acelera-la-vacunacion/20000011-4651474

[ Capisci? ]

[Derby]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/energy-crisis-fossil-fuel-investment-renewables-gas-oil-prices-coal-wind-solar-hydro-power-grid-11634497531

https://green-reporter.com/behind-the-energy-crisis-fossil-fuel-investment-drops-and-renewables-arent-ready/

Behind the Energy Crisis: Fossil Fuel Investment Drops, and Renewables Aren’t Ready

The transition to cleaner energy sources isn’t far enough along to meet a surge in demand

An energy price shock is serving as a reminder of the world’s continued dependency on fossil fuels—even amid efforts to shift to renewable sources of energy.

Demand for oil, coal and natural gas has skyrocketed world-wide in recent weeks as unusual weather conditions and resurgent economies emerging from the pandemic combine to create energy shortages from China to Brazil to the U.K.

The situation has laid bare the fragility of global supplies as countries drive to pivot from fossil fuels to cleaner sources of energy, a shift many investors and governments are trying to accelerate amid concerns about climate change.

The transition figures to be challenging for years to come, energy executives and analysts say, due to a stark reality: While fossil fuel investment is falling, fossil fuels account for most energy—and green energy spending isn’t growing fast enough to fill the gap.

Demand for power remains robust even as supply chains begin to strain. In some cases, supplies of renewable resources such as wind and hydroelectric power have fallen short of forecasts, further boosting demand for fossil fuels.

The International Energy Agency, a group that advises countries on energy policies, this month projected global oil demand will reach about 99.6 million barrels a day next year, near pre-pandemic levels. It forecasts that coal demand is set to exceed 2019 levels this year and rise somewhat until 2025, though how quickly it falls from there will depend on government actions to phase out the fuel.

“A lot less product is available to meet this now rapid growth we’re seeing,” Exxon Mobil Corp. Chief Executive

Darren Woods said in virtual remarks at a conference in Russia Wednesday. “If we don’t balance the demand equation and only address the supply, it will lead to additional volatility.”

The world’s oil production is still rising, but struggling to catch up with a surge in consumption from countries recovering from the pandemic, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Oil investments dry up

Global oil and gas exploration spending, excluding shale, averaged about $100 billion a year from 2010 to 2015, but dropped to an average of around $50 billion in the years that followed after a crash in crude prices, according to Rystad Energy.

Total global oil and gas investment this year will be down about 26% from pre-pandemic levels to $356 billion, the IEA said Wednesday. That is about where it would need to remain for the next decade, before declining further, to meet the goals of the Paris agreement, according to the IEA. The international pact seeks to limit global temperature increases to no more than two degrees Celsius from preindustrial levels, and preferably 1.5 degrees.

To meet global energy demand, as well as climate aspirations, investments in clean energy would need to grow from around $1.1 trillion this year to $3.4 trillion a year until 2030, the Paris-based agency found. Investment would advance technology, transmission and storage, among other things.

“The world isn’t investing enough to meet its future energy needs, and uncertainties over policies and demand trajectories create a strong risk of a volatile period ahead for energy markets,” the IEA report said. It added that ramping up renewables would require greatly enhanced spending in other sectors, such as mining, to produce and refine the raw materials needed for wind turbines, solar arrays and utility-scale battery storage.

The development of wind and solar farms and other renewable power sources has accelerated within the past two decades as the technologies have dropped in costs due to economies of scale, becoming more competitive with fossil-fuel based electricity generation. Global renewable energy capacity, excluding hydropower and pumped storage, topped 1.5 million megawatts last year, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency, up from less than 55,000 megawatts in 2000.

Greener sources have gained market share in the U.S. and Europe, aided by government subsidies and other policies aimed at reducing the use of coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel. In 2019, before the onset of the pandemic, the U.S. consumed more renewable energy than coal for the first time since 1885.

That growth is expected to continue. The world added 280,000 megawatts of renewable electricity last year, up 45% from the prior year, according to the IEA. The agency called that growth rate “the new normal” and expects similar amounts to be added this year and next year.

Still, fossil fuels make up the majority of power generation globally. Renewables accounted for 26% of global electricity generation in 2019, according to IRENA.(...)

[Derby]

https://www.reuters.com/article/imf-worldbank-bailey/update-2-bank-of-england-will-have-to-act-to-contain-inflation-bailey-idUSL1N2RD07B

Bank of England will have to act to contain inflation - Bailey

LONDON (Reuters) -Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey sent a fresh signal on Sunday that the British central bank is gearing up to raise interest rates for the first time since the onset of the coronavirus crisis as inflation risks mount.

[Derby]

https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/chanos-fears-what-comes-after-china-s-property-pain-20211017-p590o2

Chanos fears what comes after China’s property pain

“As we find out in every real estate bubble that bursts, when your activity is constructing real estate itself, and you’re taking capital and turning it into income by paying construction workers and real estate brokers and everybody else, when that activity ends, it goes poof! And there’s no income from the asset you’ve just financed,” he says.

“I think it’s going to be fascinating to see how they try to get out of it. Do they switch spending to defence spending? Do we get an arms race? Can they keep a closed currency? There are a whole lot of big questions.”

[sudden and sharp]

 

[sudden and sharp]

 

[sudden and sharp]

 

[Derby]

https://www.breakingviews.com/considered-view/evergrande-contagion-may-be-nearing-its-peak/

Evergrande contagion may be nearing its peak

China’s central bank reckons the indebted property developer is a bad apple in an otherwise “healthy” industry. That’s too generous: Evergrande’s woes may yet drag weaker players down and have wider impacts. But the chance of a domestic systemic financial crisis is falling.

China Evergrande’s problems are isolated and not representative of the country’s broader real estate industry, Zou Lan, head of financial markets at the People's Bank of China, said at a briefing on Oct. 15. Most companies in the sector are operating steadily and have good financials, he argued. Zou also said that the risk of Evergrande’s debt problems spilling over to the financial sector is controllable, as its financial liabilities are less than one-third of total liabilities and each of its many creditors’ exposure is limited.

“Relevant departments” and local governments are carrying out “de-risking” work at Evergrande based on market-driven principles in accordance with the law, urging it to step up asset disposal efforts, restart project constructions, and safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of home buyers, Zou said.

Some lenders have had “misunderstandings" about the central bank’s debt control policies, causing financial strains for some developers, Zou said.

Chinese state-owned property developer Yuexiu has pulled out of a proposed $1.7 billion deal to buy Evergrande’s Hong Kong headquarters over worries that Evergrande's unresolved indebtedness would create complications in completing the transaction smoothly, Reuters reported on Oct. 15 citing sources.

[Hynkel]

¿Alguien puede explicarme qué mierda es esta?

El FMI augura una inflación global prolongada si no se acelera la vacunación
https://www.efe.com/efe/america/economia/el-fmi-augura-una-inflacion-global-prolongada-si-no-se-acelera-la-vacunacion/20000011-4651474

Podría ser una traducción imaginativa.
Pero está claro que hay una OBSESIÓN con la vacuna. La duda es, ¿por qué? Están dispuestos a extorsionar y saltarse derechos básicos, incluso en algunos países prohíben trabajar sin vacuna.
El Pase sanitario para viajar ya está aceptado por la mayoría (si estás vacunado puedes viajar y contagiar el COVID libremente).

En todo duelo, la primera etapa siempre es la negación.

Vimos un buen ejemplo en 2009, cuando primero la crisis no existía, y luego "ya estamos superando esa crisis que no ha existido".

Con el Covid ha pasado lo mismo. Cuando en Italia sólo hablaban de cerrar Lombardía, hubo muchos empresarios presionando para parar. Con hashtags en plan #YoNoParo y parecidos. Los mismos empresarios que luego se callaron como ratas cuando el ejército italiano tuvo que sacar los féretros en camiones cargados hasta arriba. Con nocturnidad y alevosía.

En primavera de 2020 hubo que tragar porque no quedaban más narices. Pero en junio ya había quien hablaba de volver a la oficina. "Se acabó el cachondeíto del teletrabajo, todo el mundo de vuelta". Otro intento de negación que salió mal porque el bicho seguía ahí, así nos comimos en otoño los toques de queda y los cierres perimetrales.

Ahora que hay vacuna, la siguiente fase de la negación, de "esto no ha ocurrido", es todo el mundo con la vacuna puesta, y a volver a exactamente la misma vida de antes.


Sólo hay una obsesión y es negar que la pandemia ha ocurrido. Como no se puede al 100%, intentan volver cuanto antes a la vida anterior para que el personal crea que ha sido algo excepcional, que nada va a cambiar. Hay muchos intereses en juego si hay cambios y se redistribuye la población.

[Negrule]

Lo que tengo claro que aquí en España el único plan es volver a lo de antes, y si es posible más radicales si cabe. No se que plan hay a nivel global, es un tema que me aburre soberanamente, y mas viendo que tienen el mismo plan que aquí. Cuando el egoísmo se impone a la razón, y casi siempre se impone, por muchos conocimientos que tengas, premia más lo primero que lo segundo. Las decisiones, quienes las han de tomar, las toman desde el egoísmo, cada día más claro.

Sólo hay una obsesión y es negar que la pandemia ha ocurrido. Como no se puede al 100%, intentan volver cuanto antes a la vida anterior para que el personal crea que ha sido algo excepcional, que nada va a cambiar. Hay muchos intereses en juego si hay cambios y se redistribuye la población.

[Derby]

Efectivamente, la capacidad del ser humano de negar la realidad como estrategia para evitar el dolor es inmensa. Sólo que la realidad es tozuda...

https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/colin-powell-dies-10-18-21/index.html

Colin Powell, military leader and first Black secretary of state, dies at age 84 from Covid-19 complications