PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos-Otoño 2021

[Derby]

Pirámides poblacionales

https://twitter.com/liquiditycycle/status/1452220551389397004

[Derby]

Es tendencia ahora mismo en TW...

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://twitter.com/malvartinez/status/1451553336658903044

Mathieu Lehanneur designs 3D-printed sculptures based on population statistics
Alice Finney | 19 October 2021

State of the World exhibited at Design Miami/Basel

French artist Mathieu Lehanneur has used population data from 140 countries to create a collection of 3D-printed aluminium sculptures.

Called State of the World, the sculptures were presented at an exhibition at Design Miami/Basel.

The sculptures are based on population data

Each solid sculpture represents one individual country. The country's birthrate, life expectancy and history are reflected in the shape of the sculpture, with each individual groove representing an age from 1-100.

At the base is newborn children, while the peak represents the elderly. Most of the sculptures are bottom-heavy, demonstrating how few people in society live to be 100 years old.

Lehanneur sourced the data from a UN database

"The idea was to make visible and to also understand all the people who are living right now on the same planet," Lehanneur told Dezeen.

"I wanted to change the two-dimensional statistics into a three-dimensional object – like a spinning object," he said. "You can see that every single silhouette is different from one another."

Each groove represents an age from 1-100

Lehanneur retrieved the population data from a United Nations (UN) database, where it was originally depicted in mathematical graphs.

In order to accurately represent each age demographic to the half millimetre, he 3D-printed the sculptures from aluminium.

"I decided to use the aluminium because when you mash it in carefully, you can absolutely respect every single dimension," he said.

"For me, it makes sense to be extremely precise because every single millimetre means thousands of years."

Lehanneur also created a silver sculpture that represents the population data for all of Earth, which is much wider at its base than its top, showing how young the majority of the planet's population is.

A single silver sculpture represents data from the entire planet

State of the World is the continuation of an earlier series of sculptures by the designer, called The Age of the World, created in 2009.

That project, a collection of ceramic urns, represented the ages of the population in France, the USA, Japan, Egypt and Russia.

Although he started the project a decade ago, Lehanneur believes that 2021 was the right year to finalise and exhibit State of the World because of the coronavirus pandemic.

"This is a turning point in the history of humanity," he reflected. "It's super rare that the entire world basically lived the same catastrophe."

"This moment of the reopening of the world was the right moment," he added.

Lehanneur is known for artwork that explores the relationship between the living world and objects, such as a black marble table that looks like the sea.

The artist also created a range of black marble furniture sculptures that mimic waves in the ocean.

Saludos.

[Derby]

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/oct/24/80-of-uk-employers-plan-to-hire-over-next-12-months-survey-says

80% of UK employers plan to hire over next 12 months, survey says

Brexit and Covid-19 causing acute shortages of workers in sectors from haulage to hospitality

[Derby]

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202110/1237180.shtml

China to overhaul housing market

Pilot property tax plan to curb speculation, systemic risks, experts say

China's decision to pilot five-year property tax levies in selected cities on Saturday drew wide attention and discussion, including reportedly resistance hyped up by some Western media outlets. However, Chinese experts said on Sunday that the new move will help ensure stable growth of China's economy and real estate market in the long run, as the country seeks to curb housing speculation, distribute wealth more evenly and pursue common prosperity for all, dismissing claims that a housing market collapse is looming.

The pilot program, one of the most profound changes to China's real estate market after decades of reshaping, is neither a signal of a crackdown on the country's housing market nor an obstacle to its economic growth, experts said. Instead, it is for the purpose of guiding rational consumption of housing and economical use of land resources to promote the steady and sound development of China's real estate market.

The Standing Committee of the National People's Congress (NPC), China's top legislature, adopted the decision on Saturday to authorize the State Council, China's cabinet, to pilot property tax reforms in some regions, according to a report by the Xinhua News Agency. The pilot program will run for five years, and the governments of the pilot areas will come up with detailed implementation rules, said the report. 

How to make the property tax acceptable to middle-class families in China and make them feel the positive impacts as soon as possible is the key to the success of the pilot program  , but housing prices will never plunge in China as the country would not allow the introduction of a property tax reform possibly leading to the collapse of its real estate market, experts said.

The property tax in the pilot areas will be levied on all types of real estate, including residential and non-residential properties, excluding legally owned rural houses.

Previous property tax pilot programs only applied to houses, but the latest one will cover state-owned land for construction purposes, Yan Yuejin, research director at Shanghai-based E-house China R&D Institute, told the Global Times on Sunday.

The wealthy province of Zhejiang in East China, tech hub Shenzhen in South China's Guangdong Province and the southern island province of Hainan which is developing free trade businesses are expected to join the pilot program, Yan predicted.

"Zhejiang is very likely to be included in the program as the province is aiming to building itself into a pilot zone for common prosperity by 2025, so it would have good foundation and demonstration effect to be included in the trial," he said.

The property-tax rate may vary depending on region and the size of properties, and the pilot regions may come from different parts of China with different development levels, experts predicted.

Systematic experience must be gained within five years to support legislation for a nationwide property tax, Jia Kang, director of China Academy of New Supply-side Economics, told the Global Times on Sunday.

Since 2011, the Chinese central government has explored levying taxes on high-end private residential properties in Shanghai and Chongqing, two mega metropolises. Since then there has been much discussion of expanding the tests nationwide, though little progress has been announced to date, as many local governments are reluctant to push such a tax out of worries that the property taxation will cause property values to drop, and dampen market demand for land - a crucial source of local government revenues. 

"The upcoming pilot program, with a clear timeline, is a mid-to-long-term arrangement, showing a proactive and prudent attitude taken by the central government on real estate reform," Jia said.(...)

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/china-says-will-roll-out-property-tax-pilot-scheme-some-regions-xinhua-2021-10-23/

[panoli]

https://blogs.elconfidencial.com/cultura/el-erizo-y-el-zorro/2021-10-12/pandemia-crisis-energia_3304809/

No, después de la pandemia no vendrán los felices años 20 sino los oscuros 70
Los datos señalan que estamos más cerca de volver a la década de la inflación, altos precios de la energía y enorme desempleo

Por Ramón González Férriz

Llevamos más de año y medio preguntándonos cómo nos comportaríamos cuando la pandemia terminase o, al menos, se volviera un fenómeno manejable. Muchos hemos especulado con que era posible que repitiéramos la actitud que se adoptó hace justo un siglo, en la década de 1920, tras el fin de la Primera Guerra Mundial y la remisión de la gran epidemia de gripe. Hartos de sacrificios, y con la economía en pleno crecimiento, nos volveríamos más hedonistas, estaríamos más dispuestos a divertirnos y derrochar porque la muerte estaría más presente que nunca, y la cultura se convertiría en una celebración un poco temeraria de seguir vivos y poder festejarlo juntos. Esa teoría siempre ha tenido puntos flacos. Pero ahora, que se acerca el final de la pandemia, puede que se haya tratado de un completo error de juicio. No parece que estemos tan dispuestos a celebrar que estamos vivos porque, aparentemente, nuestra existencia podría complicarse aún más. ¿Y si la época que vamos a repetir no fuera la década iniciada hace un siglo sino más bien la que empezó hace justo 50 años, la de 1970? En algunos aspectos de la economía, la política y la cultura, no es disparatado pensarlo. ¿Y si la época que vamos a repetir no fuera la década iniciada hace un siglo sino más bien la que empezó hace justo 50 años, la de 1970? En buena parte de Occidente, esa década supuso un susto tras otro. Y algunos de ellos son parecidos a los que tenemos hoy. Fueron los años de la gran inflación: los precios no dejaban de subir y los políticos, en su intento por contenerlos, no hicieron más que meter la pata y provocar subidas aún mayores. Por ejemplo, se pusieron controles gubernamentales a los precios (¿les suena?) o, en el caso de Estados Unidos, el presidente Gerald Ford lanzó la campaña WIN (whip inflation now, algo así como 'derrotemos ahora a la inflación'), en la que con chapas, camisetas y pegatinas se animaba a la población a controlar el consumo de combustible, ahorrar en calefacción e incluso plantar sus propias verduras en el jardín. Ford, por supuesto, perdió las elecciones.
placeholderLa crisis del petróleo de 1973.
La crisis del petróleo de 1973.
La inflación se debía, en parte, al precio disparado de la energía (esto también les sonará), provocado en este caso por un problema geopolítico: las naciones productoras de petróleo, lideradas por Arabia Saudí, decidieron boicotear a los países ricos que apoyaron a Israel en la guerra de Yom Kipur, como Japón, Reino Unido y Estados Unidos: cuando Ford entró en pánico, el precio del petróleo se había multiplicado por tres. En Reino Unido, estos fenómenos provocaron una importante escasez de alimentos y otros productos (como sucede ahora, tras el Brexit y la pandemia), un enorme desempleo y el llamado 'invierno del descontento', con huelgas terribles para exigir aumentos de sueldo que igualaran el ritmo de la subida de los precios (actualmente, de momento, el Gobierno español ya se los ha concedido a los jubilados y a los funcionarios; ya veremos si los sindicatos prepararán actos reivindicativos para obtener lo mismo de los empresarios). A mediados de los años 70, en España, el impacto de la inflación y la crisis del petróleo dificultaron aún más la Transición; pero, incluso después, el PSOE tuvo que gestionar sus consecuencias durante casi una década. La década de los 70 significó un giro a la derecha en la política
Giro a la derecha
Pero el PSOE fue más bien una excepción: en realidad, en muchos países la década de los 70 significó un giro a la derecha en la política. Al final de los 70, en parte por el cansancio de la población tras una década de graves problemas económicos, ganaron las elecciones Ronald Reagan y Margaret Thatcher (hoy en día, si hay inflación, y después del enorme gasto de los fondos europeos, con la deuda que conllevarán, no sería extraño que se produjera un parecido giro hacia la derecha, si es que no se está produciendo ya). Es llamativo que en esa década llena de sobresaltos también se produjera un giro conservador en la religión: Juan Pablo II se puso al frente de la Iglesia católica y el ayatolá Jomeini al frente del Irán posrevolucionario. Hoy, una parte notable del cristianismo occidental se está rearmando para dar la batalla moral y cultural, porque tiene la sensación, como la tenía en los 60, de que el ateísmo y el progresismo moral están triunfando sin freno.
placeholderMargaret Thatcher en 1989. (Reuters)
Margaret Thatcher en 1989. (Reuters)
 También en la década de 1970 el ecologismo pasó de ser considerado una moda 'hippie' a tenerse en cuenta como una corriente ideológica relevante: fue entonces cuando se publicaron libros cruciales para el movimiento como 'The Last Whole Earth Catalogue', que consideraba la lucha ecologista como la culminación de la lucha por los derechos civiles, o 'Diet for a Small Planet', que defendía la dieta vegetariana. En ese momento se crearon los grupos que luego darían pie al partido de los Verdes en Alemania. Entonces, los ecologistas aún eran vistos como una mezcla de románticos, chiflados y anticapitalistas. Es probable que hoy no pase lo mismo, pero quizá sigamos sin tomarnos en serio la magnitud del problema ecológico. En los 70 ya se sabía que el sueño 'hippie' había muerto y el novelista Tom Wolfe declaró que fue la 'década del yo' Pero no fueron solo la economía y la política. Fue también la cultura. En los 70 ya se sabía que el sueño 'hippie' había muerto y el novelista Tom Wolfe declaró que fue la 'década del yo': la gente se había cansado del comunitarismo, de las luchas idealistas y de los sacrificios de la acción política y se dedicó, básicamente, a mirarse al ombligo (después de una década de cultura woke e hipermovilización izquierdista, pienso que sucederá lo mismo). La cultura lo reflejó: los Sex Pistols no reivindicaban un mundo mejor, sino divertirse mientras este ardía; David Bowie se enfrascó en un viaje espacial alucinógeno e individualista que acabó siendo un panegírico de los placeres consumistas y capitalistas y, bueno, nació el 'heavy metal': una música dura y oscura en la que las clases obreras británicas ensalzaban las virtudes malignas de Satanás. Stephen King publicó algunas de las novelas de terror más espeluznantes —'Carrie' o 'El resplandor'— y el género de la autoayuda alcanzó la madurez con megaéxitos como 'Juan Sebastián Gaviota' y 'El zen y el arte del mantenimiento de la motocicleta'. ¿Cuántas malas noticias podremos aguantar antes de optar por el nihilismo, el hiperconsumo (mientras podamos), el satanismo o, a la vez, la autoayuda?
placeholderLos Sex Pistols a finales de los 70.
Los Sex Pistols a finales de los 70.
Sigo pensando que puede haber buenas noticias que hagan que nuestros años 20 se parezcan bastante a los de hace un siglo. De hecho, la mayoría de expertos afirman que las malas noticias económicas que tenemos ahora son pasajeras. Pero deberíamos estar alerta: tal vez, aunque salgamos a bailar, esta acabe siendo una década tan sombría y loca como la de 'Fiebre del sábado noche', una de las películas que mejor reflejan el lado funesto de los años 70 y con la que quizá pronto nos sintamos identificados.

[Derby]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/10/24/energy-housing-policy-missing/

Tories’ housing failure will usher in a nasty era of extremism

The crippling gap between the haves and have-nots is now a source of simmering political resentment that will cost the Conservatives dearly

“Great book!” So said Michael Gove as he walked purposefully walked past the GB News broadcasting stand at the Conservative party conference.

“Did you read the whole thing?” I quickly responded, as the new Levelling Up, Housing and Communities Secretary came into, then out of, earshot. “I certainly did,” he replied.

Last year I wrote Home Truths: The UK’s chronic housing shortage. While hardly troubling the bestseller list, the book has been widely read by MPs, civil servants and other policymakers, as well as across the building industry.

Home Truths explains why, since the 1960s, the UK has built around 3m too few homes. This has seen property prices spiral way ahead of earnings.

That’s why millions of young adults are stuck in shared, rented accommodation and have put their lives on hold – with countless others denied social housing. Frustration and insecurity abound as, for so many, a decent home remains out of reach.

The core argument of the book is that instead of juicing up the “demand side”, using “Help-to-Buy” or sanctioning ever more borrowing, fundamental “supply side” reforms are needed. The house building industry is dominated by a few over-mighty firms – which is why Home Truths argues a full Competition and Markets Authority inquiry is required.

Drastic changes are also needed regarding the provision of land and planning permission. Ministers have talked tough for years but failed utterly to tackle entrenched vested interests.

Over the last decade, as local councils have granted more permissions, large developers who control the industry have engineered a go-slow, making higher profits by building fewer homes.

Even Gove’s enemies would acknowledge his intelligence and definitive reformist streak – as demonstrated when he was Education Secretary. When he was put charge of housing, I thought genuine policy innovation could be in the works.



Yet, over a year after ministers promised radical planning reforms “unlike anything since the Second World War”, and despite almost 45,000 consultation responses, Gove has now halted such reforms.

Far from finally taking steps to fix our “broken housing market”, the new Communities Secretary used this month’s party conference to ditch ambitions to facilitate significantly more housebuilding.

Boris Johnson confirmed this change of tack, insisting “our green spaces will be preserved” amid reports the manifesto pledge to build 300,000 homes each year – designed to appeal to “priced out” young adults and “generation rent” – could be dropped.

No one wants to ruin areas of outstanding natural beauty – which are anyway protected.

But the “greenbelt” now covers 13pc of this country, while residential housing covers just 2pc. Far from being “concreted over”, designated greenbelt acreage has more than doubled over the last four decades. Much of this is urban scrub, ripe for development, or humdrum farmland close to major towns and cities where people want to live and work.

It is ridiculous, and a source of huge social injustice, that during the last half century, a period of fast population growth, no sizeable additional towns have been created in the UK, despite less than one-fiftieth of our landmass being used to actually house those who live here.

There are Cabinet ministers who fully understand this. Almost every senior Tory I know gets that, unless the sharp decline in home ownership is reversed, particularly among adults of child-rearing age, the Conservatives’ core vote will collapse.

Yet those steering government are, despite a huge 80-seat majority, taking the easy option of pandering to the property oligarchs, land agents and landowners, maintaining a system which generates “contrived scarcity” and keeps the price of property and residential building plots sky high.



That’s great for those who have, crippling for those who have not. The housing market, so long a source of wealth distribution and social mobility for those who work hard to weather a mortgage, is now a source of simmering social and political resentment. Unless fixed, it will ultimately create an era of nasty, extremist politics.

Some might say I’m just bitter. Yes, I’ve spent a lot of time putting together a detailed programme of housing reforms, which I thought might interest this Government. Alas, not.

Yet I see policy incoherence across numerous sectors – or at least, a determination stubbornly to ignore economic realities, lest they undermine a good headline.

Take energy policy – an area where Boris Johnson’s administration can’t be blamed for the mess we’re in but seems unwilling to acknowledge the extent of it. Having closed the Rough facility off the Yorkshire coast in 2017, the UK has a chronic dearth of gas storage, leaving us hopelessly dependent on volatile “spot markets”.

Energy-intensive companies such as steelmakers and manufacturers are especially vulnerable – a reality which ultimately threatens the viability of thousands of UK-based companies employing millions of workers.

Ahead of the Cop26 summit, the Government clings to its claim achieving “net zero” carbon emissions by 2050 will cost £50bn a year – an estimate countless credible analysts have demonstrated is a hopeless underestimate. The long-promised Treasury review of these costings remains unpublished.

And consider business rates – levied on the value of company property, payable before any revenue, let alone profit, has been made.

This is a tax which discourages investment, particularly by small and medium-sized firms, and wildly disadvantages bricks and mortar retailers struggling to keep countless British high streets alive amid competition from the online giants.

The Chancellor was due to unveil a long-awaited overhaul of this outdated tax in this week’s Budget. But reforms have apparently been “shelved” because ministers have “not had enough time”.

To these sector-specific policy misses must be added the Government’s broader failure to use post-Brexit freedoms – including state-aid, regional taxation and broader regulatory reform – to kick start the long-promised “levelling-up” agenda.

As autumn turns to winter, we’re entering a period of turbulence ­– during which the economy, while determining long-term electoral outcomes as it always does, will dominate day-to-day politics too.

Yet, at the heart of Government, there seems to be little in the way of detailed and strategic thinking about the economy, let alone economic policymaking.

[AbiertoPorDemolicion]

https://www.tker.co/p/inflation-versus-deflation-blankfein

There are worse things than inflation

Former Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein explains

In an interview that aired on Bloomberg on Wednesday, former Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein articulated the simple, troubling difference between inflation and deflation.

There's a lot of remedies in the world – painful as they are – for inflation. It's very hard to get rid of deflation. If you had to err on one side or another, you would err on allowing a certain amount of inflation to take place…

Deflation is a terrible thing. Inflation, you could tolerate. I mean it's bad; I can go through all the things and how unevenly Inflation affects different segments of the population. But it's easier to deal [with]. Again, with inflation, you go out and you buy things now because it's gonna get more expensive. When you have deflationary expectations, you say, “You know something? I’ll wait for tomorrow.” Tomorrow, you wake up you say, “I’ll wait another day because it's getting cheaper and easier,” etcetera … Then you really are in the economic doldrums.

¿Deflation is a terrible thing? Eso será si eres un especulador que vives de las revalorizaciones y esas cosas....

LA DEFLACIÓN ES UNA BENDICIÓN

Acaba con la especulación y los especuladores, aumenta el poder adquisitivo de los salarios y las pensiones, aumenta el consumo generando empleo y fomenta el ahorro. La deflación sanea la economía, castigando el despilfarro, el endeudamiento y el apalancamiento.

La economía ficticia y los especuladores tienen pánico de la deflación porque les hace desaparecer, con la deflación se acaban los pelotazos.

La deflación impide al Estado y los deudores atracar a los ahorradores con la inflación que merma constante mente el valor del ahorro. El estado no contento con robar a los ahorradores el IPC, les hace pagar impuestos por los exiguos intereses que les paga el mercado y que frecuente no cubren la inflación real, por lo que deberían declarar perdidas en vez de ingresos.

Dado el constante avance la tecnología y la producción la deflación debería ser la norma y no la excepción. La inmensa reducción de costos que constantemente aportan la mecanización y la robótica deben reflejarse en el mercado y no alimentar al insaciable capitalismo popular de los parásitos.

La deflación, que tanto odian los especuladores y el Estado sanea la economía, fuerza la renovación y modernización de la producción impidiendo las burbujas.

A los especuladores y al Estado les encanta la inflación generalizada y la deflación de pensiones y salarios, que denominan ajuste, en vez de ajustar los precios para reflejar la constante disminución de los costos de producción que aportan la mecanización y la robótica.

La deflación “aumenta el consumo generando empleo” y aumenta el consumo porque la disminución de los precios permitirá a los famélicos comer y comerán hasta que sacien su hambre, generando empleo para que otros parados a su vez puedan trabajar y comer. El Único consumo que disminuye es el superfluo y sobre todo el especulativo que nunca debieran haber existido.

Cuando las masas famélicas pueda llenar sus estónmagos se vestirán aumentando el consumo y el empleo.

El dinero que antes se dedicaba a la especulación y el consumismo (atraquemonos hoy, porque mañana será mucho más caro) va a través del ahorro, a la inversión para aumentar la mecanización y robotizar la producción con objeto de aumentar la productividad que exige el mercado.

[Derby]

Menuda reconversión: de pisitos a coches eléctricos...

https://www.reuters.com/article/china-evergrande-debt/update-2-evergrande-ev-unit-shares-jump-after-chairman-signals-business-shift-idUSL1N2RL01Y

Evergrande, EV unit shares jump after chairman signals business shift

HONG KONG (Reuters) - Shares in China Evergrande Group and its EV unit rose on Monday as the embattled property developer moved to prioritise growth of its nascent electric vehicles business over its troubled core real estate operations.

Evergrande, reeling under more than $300 billion in liabilities, averted a costly default last week with a last-minute bond coupon payment, buying it more time to head off a looming debt crunch with its next major payment deadline on Friday.

An announcement by its chairman, Hui Ka Yan, reported by state media on Friday, that it would make its new electric vehicle venture its primary business, instead of property, within 10 years, cheered investors on Monday.

Evergrande rose as much as 6% while China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle Group Ltd as much as 17%, although both later trimmed their gains. The benchmark Heng Seng Index climbed 0.1%.

Raymond Cheng, CGS-CIMB Securities’ head of China research, said the business shift makes sense given Beijing’s growing support for EVs and its increased tightening of the frothy real estate sector.

“This is the best outcome, if it just focuses on existing developments and maintains the operation,” Cheng said.

While the move would help Evergrande deleverage by gradually scaling down its massive landbank, Cheng said it was unclear how the it would affect the company’s asset disposal plan.

Evergrande's new vehicle business, founded in 2019, has yet to reveal a production model or sell a single vehicle here. Last month, the unit warned it was still seeking new investors and asset sales, and that without either it might struggle to pay salaries and cover other expenses.

Hui expects property sales will slow to about 200 billion yuan ($31.31 billion) per year within the 10-year period, compared to more than 700 billion yuan last year, China’s Securities Times reported on Friday.

NEXT HURDLES

News late last week that Evergande had averted a default by securing $83.5 million for the last-minute payment of interest on a bond has lifted confidence the company may be able to avoid a messy collapse that would have significant ramifications for global financial markets.

On Monday, sources told Reuters some bondholders had received coupon payments they were owed last week, which suggested debt problems were being addressed.

Evergrande next needs to find $47.5 million by Friday and has nearly $338 million in other offshore coupon payments coming up in November and December.

Broader concerns about China’s real estate sector, which accounts for a quarter of gross domestic product, still loom large for investors and policymakers in the world’s second-largest economy.

Property firms, including many with dollar-denominated debts, will meet with China’s state planner in Beijing on Tuesday, media outlet Cailianshe said.

Evergrande separately said on Sunday it had resumed work on more than 10 projects in six cities including Shenzhen. Many of its projects across the country had been halted due to payments owed to suppliers and contractors.

Also lifting general confidence, state media outlet Xinhua in an article on Monday said the spillover effect of Chinese real estate companies’ debt default risks to the financial industry would be controllable.

The report follows comments from senior officials including Vice Premier Liu He and central bank governor Yi Gang last week, who also said property companies were facing debt default issues due to poor management and a failure to adjust to market changes.

[Derby]

https://www.reuters.com/article/climate-un-economy/explainer-climate-change-what-are-the-economic-stakes-idUSL1N2RH12F

EXPLAINER-Climate change: what are the economic stakes?

Oct 25 - COP26 climate talks in Glasgow starting next Sunday may be the world’s best last chance to cap global warming at the 1.5-2 degrees Celsius upper limit set out in the 2015 Paris Agreement.

The stakes for the planet are huge - among them the impact on economic livelihoods the world over and the future stability of the global financial system.

Here are 10 climate change-related questions that economic policy-makers are trying to answer:

1) HOW MUCH DOES CLIMATE CHANGE COST? From floods and fires to conflict and migration: economic models struggle with the many possible knock-on effects from global warming. The ballpark IMF estimate is that unchecked warming would shave 7% off world output by 2100. The Network for Greening the Financial System (NFGS) group of world central banks puts it even higher - 13%. In a Reuters poll of economists, the median figure for the output loss in that scenario was 18%.

2) WHERE IS THE IMPACT GOING TO BE FELT HARDEST? - Clearly, the developing world. Much of the world’s poor live in the tropical or low-lying regions already suffering climate change fall-out like droughts or rising sea levels. Moreover their countries rarely have the resources to mitigate such damage. The NFGS report projects overall output losses of above 15% for much of Asia and Africa, rising to 20% in the Sahel countries.

3) WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR INDIVIDUAL LIVELIHOODS? Climate change will drive up to 132 million more people into extreme poverty by 2030, a World Bank paper last year concluded. Factors included lost farming income; lower outdoor labour productivity; rising food prices; increased disease; and economic losses from extreme weather.

4) HOW MUCH WILL IT COST TO FIX IT? Advocates of early action say the sooner you start the better. The widely used NiGEM macroeconomic forecast model even suggests an early start would offer small net gains for output thanks to the big investments needed in green infrastructure. The same model warns of output losses of up to 3% in last-minute transition scenarios.

5) WHO LOSES OUT IN A “NET ZERO” CARBON WORLD? Primarily, anyone with fossil fuel exposure. A report by think tank Carbon Tracker in September estimated that over $1 trillion of business-as-usual investment by the oil and gas sector would no longer be viable in a genuinely low-carbon world. Moreover the IMF has called for the end of all fossil fuel subsidies - which it calculates at $5 trillion annually if defined to include undercharging for supply, environmental and health costs.

6) WHAT SHOULD CARBON REALLY COST? Tax or permit schemes that try to price in the damage done by emissions create incentives to go green. But so far only a fifth of global carbon emissions are covered by such programmes, pricing carbon on average at a mere $3 a tonne. That’s well below the $75/tonne the IMF says is needed to cap global warming at well below 2°C. The Reuters poll of economists recommended $100/tonne. 7) WOULDN’T THAT LEAD TO INFLATION? - Anything which factors in the polluting cost of fossil fuels is likely to lead to price rises in some sectors - aviation for example. That could in turn lead to what central banks define as inflation - broad-based and durable price rises across the whole economy. Yet history shows this hasn’t necessarily been the case: carbon taxes introduced in Canada and Europe pushed overall prices lower because they cut into household income and hence consumer demand, a recent study showed. It is also true that doing nothing could lead to inflation: a European Central Bank paper last year warned of food and commodity price rises from extreme weather events and the land shortages being caused by desertification and rising sea levels.

ARE GREEN ADVANCES REALLY DECOUPLING EMISSIONS FROM ECONOMIC GROWTH? Genuinely sustainable growth implies that economic activity can grow as needed without adding yet more emissions. This is the holy grail of “absolute decoupling”. But so far, any decoupling has either been largely relative - in the sense of merely achieving higher rates of economic growth than gains in emissions - or achieved by shifting dirty production from one national territory to another. And that is why, for now, global emissions are still rising.

9) WHO BEARS THE BRUNT OF TRANSITION? The idea of “Just Transition” has been espoused by bodies such as the European Union to acknowledge that the transition to net zero should happen in a fair way - for example by ensuring low-income groups are not made worse-off. At a global scale, the rich countries which since their industrial revolutions have generated the bulk of emissions have promised to help developing countries transition via $100 billion of annual transfers - a promise so far not fulfilled.

10) COULD THIS SPARK A FINANCIAL CRISIS? The global financial system needs to be insulated against both the physical risks of climate change itself and the upheavals likely to happen during a transition to net zero. Central banks and national treasuries are calling on banks and other financial players to come clean about the exposure of their books to such risks. The ECB and other regulators have made it clear there is a long way to go on this. (Editing by Giles Elgood)

[Greco]

...

Lehanneur sourced the data from a UN database

...

La representación en barras 2D es fiel cuantitativamente (o suele serlo normalmente), si lo pasas a 3D, convendría convertir la representación de superficie a volumen (y no tiene ninguna pinta), para seguir siendo cuantitativamente exacto, no simplemente convertir la longitud de la barra en el radio. O sino siempre tendrás la excusa de que (yo es que soy de letras/humanidades) y es arte.

Así tiene pinta de que nuestros mayores nos van a aplastar todavía más de lo que ya lo hacen.

[cujo]

Si el volumen de las figuras representase los millones de habitantes , nos asustaríamos del tamaño de algunas "esculturas" y ciertos países acojonarian bastante.

También estaría bien comparar el tanto por ciento de trabajadores productivos q había en los 3000 millones de habitantes de la época de nuestros padres con el tanto por ciento de parásitos no productivos q hay actualmente en los 8000 millones de humanos.

[Saturio]

"Spain" es la escultura más tremenda de todas. Tenemos el "ensanche inferior" más ridículo de todas y por debajo otra vez adelgazamiento.

[Yupi_Punto]

But inflation is high!! Yes, but it is driven by supply issues. Raise rates on that and you get high prices due to supply constraints and you get a consumer that is killed. You can see this by the fear in the UM Consumer Indices... https://t.co/9KpTlaIS47

[Negrule]

Si alguien tiene acceso a la noticie y la cuelga, se lo agradecería. Me gustaría leerla


Santos González: "El mercado hipotecario está roto porque los jóvenes no compran pisos"

Santos González, presidente de la Asociación Hipotecaria Española, dice que no es sano el crecimiento actual del 25% porque sobre todo descansa en clientes que venden su casa para comprar otra mayor.

Santos González (Talavera de la Reina, Toledo, 1955) se prejubiló hace 12 años de Santander, donde era responsable del negocio hipotecario, y desde entonces preside la Asociación Hipotecaria Española, que representa a bancos y cooperativas que mueven…

https://www.expansion.com/empresas/banca/2021/10/25/617679fce5fdeaf8658b45cd.html