Los administradores de TransicionEstructural no se responsabilizan de las opiniones vertidas por los usuarios del foro. Cada usuario asume la responsabilidad de los comentarios publicados.
0 Usuarios y 2 Visitantes están viendo este tema.
Cita de: saturno en Septiembre 03, 2022, 09:29:15 amCita de: elarquitecto en Septiembre 02, 2022, 18:34:28 pmlo digo porque se puede heredar y se puede "heredar"no me extrañaría ver una ley que haga fiscalmente muy caro heredar una casa "despilfarradora", al tiempo que la fiscalidad de las "herencias" con eficiencia energética sea mucho menorestamos a 2 telediarios que se les ocurra la brillante ideaahora están con las casas vacías y tal, pero empezaremos a verlo con casas "despilfaradoras" (ojo, que no tiene mucho que ver con que sea "confortable" o no, sino con que demande mucha energía no-renovable, así que igual instalando placas fv te apaña el palo de hacienda o quiensea que te grave)uy, el palillo, perdón, Por aportar ejemplo de Francia-- Reforma de la clasificacion energética de vivienda que degrada la calificacion de vvdas de menos ahorroY..-- Prohibicion de alquilar viviendas con peor calificacion energéticaAntesDesde el verano 2021 los F y G no se pueden alquilar (son "coladores térmicos")Y la nueva tabla significa que la calefaccion por gas o chimeneas te suele degradar la nota. Tipicamente de D a E-y como los himbersores no entienden el tinglado, se limitan a preguntarse si podrán seguir alquilando (no) o vender recuperando el capital (dudoso) Luego, bastará con regular en funcion de la nota energética, sin necesidad de hablar de precio a m2Empieza el proceso de bombeo de pasta embalsamada.No se trata de que bajen los preciosSe trata de extraerlo de sus contenedores estancos, XGracias en v/FRmaquiavelico... creo que irá por ahi la cosa.Si tu casa tiene baja calificacion energetica ( en España el 80% de las construcciones por no decir el 90%) no puedes ni alquilar ni vender hasta que reformes la casa.Total, miles de pisos sin salida... con lo que se colapasa la oferta y asi no bajan los precios de las pocas viviendas vendibles o alqulables.y asi hasta el infinito.Es una forma mas elegante qu ela de ahora de estrangular la oferta.Ahora llenas barrios enteros de chusma, haciendo que el pobre españolito con algo de ahorro , se tenga que comprar un piso en las nuevas promociones huyendo de sus barrios de toda la vida.En Bilbao por ejemplo creo que una de las razones de que hayan llenado Bilbao La vieja de chusma es hacer que los jovenes llenen los nuevos pisos de zorrozaurre. Una vez llenados estos, se saca a la chusma de bilbao la vieja y lo conviertes en el nuevo barrio de moda. Y asi tenemos para 20 años mas.
Cita de: elarquitecto en Septiembre 02, 2022, 18:34:28 pmlo digo porque se puede heredar y se puede "heredar"no me extrañaría ver una ley que haga fiscalmente muy caro heredar una casa "despilfarradora", al tiempo que la fiscalidad de las "herencias" con eficiencia energética sea mucho menorestamos a 2 telediarios que se les ocurra la brillante ideaahora están con las casas vacías y tal, pero empezaremos a verlo con casas "despilfaradoras" (ojo, que no tiene mucho que ver con que sea "confortable" o no, sino con que demande mucha energía no-renovable, así que igual instalando placas fv te apaña el palo de hacienda o quiensea que te grave)uy, el palillo, perdón, Por aportar ejemplo de Francia-- Reforma de la clasificacion energética de vivienda que degrada la calificacion de vvdas de menos ahorroY..-- Prohibicion de alquilar viviendas con peor calificacion energéticaAntesDesde el verano 2021 los F y G no se pueden alquilar (son "coladores térmicos")Y la nueva tabla significa que la calefaccion por gas o chimeneas te suele degradar la nota. Tipicamente de D a E-y como los himbersores no entienden el tinglado, se limitan a preguntarse si podrán seguir alquilando (no) o vender recuperando el capital (dudoso) Luego, bastará con regular en funcion de la nota energética, sin necesidad de hablar de precio a m2Empieza el proceso de bombeo de pasta embalsamada.No se trata de que bajen los preciosSe trata de extraerlo de sus contenedores estancos, XGracias en v/FR
lo digo porque se puede heredar y se puede "heredar"no me extrañaría ver una ley que haga fiscalmente muy caro heredar una casa "despilfarradora", al tiempo que la fiscalidad de las "herencias" con eficiencia energética sea mucho menorestamos a 2 telediarios que se les ocurra la brillante ideaahora están con las casas vacías y tal, pero empezaremos a verlo con casas "despilfaradoras" (ojo, que no tiene mucho que ver con que sea "confortable" o no, sino con que demande mucha energía no-renovable, así que igual instalando placas fv te apaña el palo de hacienda o quiensea que te grave)uy, el palillo, perdón,
Dos temas:1. La relativa sorpresa de que el paro de agosto se debe más a la construcción que a hostelería. Oído esta mañana en Cope citando a Lacalle. Hay más titulares sobre esto en provincias que en medios nacionales.
España destruye 189.000 puestos de trabajo en agostoEl paro sube por segundo mes consecutivo y lo hace en 40.428 personas(...)Los sectores donde aumenta el número de parados son la Construcción (5.095), la Industria (4.974) y especialmente en los Servicios (37.546), mientras que disminuye en Agricultura (-6.693) y en el colectivo sin empleo anterior (-494). Por sexos, aumenta en mayor proporción para las mujeres, 22.613 paradas más, frente a 17.815 desempleados más.
Throttled Trade Gives Euro Bears Even More Reason to Hit Sell*Record gas prices threaten trade flows supportive of euro*Trade shocks could limit impact of ECB rate hike supportThe euro is at risk of more losses this winter as the region’s manufacturers confront the most challenging environment in decades. Record-breaking natural gas prices have plunged Europe into a crisis, and business leaders are bracing for the risk of blackouts and energy rationing this winter. In Germany, the cost of imports relative to exports has jumped to levels last seen in the 1980s.It’s a metric that’s becoming increasingly alarming for euro traders, and now they’re focusing on economic scenarios as they grapple with the effects of the war in Ukraine. Strategists warn that a continued deterioration in the trade balance on further Russian gas supply curbs and surging costs could undermine flows that have supported the currency.The euro is still trading below dollar parity, even despite growing expectations for the European Central Bank to deliver a 75 basis-point rate hike next week. “The outlook is dire until prices normalize,” said Kaspar Hense, senior portfolio manager at Bluebay Asset Management LLP. “The theme that purchasing power parity is driving foreign-exchange in the background has not died at all.”Europe’s energy dependence on Russia is part of an economic model that provided a long-term support to the common currency since its inception. With cash flowing in to purchase products routinely outstripping capital leaving to pay for imports, demand for euros has remained strong. That dynamic is changing.The theory goes that exchange rates will adjust in line with changes in the current account. Without such supportive flows, a currency can become more “volatile and vulnerable” to changes in external conditions, according to HSBC Holdings Plc analysts. Goldman Sachs Group Inc strategists see the euro falling to $0.95 in the event of a deeper and more prolonged cut to gas flows. Bluebay, who are short the euro, see the common currency falling “easily” to that level over the coming months.A prolonged adjustment to the region’s terms-of-trade is not yet in the euro’s price, according to Karen Fishman, strategist at Goldman Sachs. The currency is trading at levels that are in line with the investment bank’s base case scenario of a mild euro-area recession later this year.While gas reserves are filling up quickly, there’s still the danger of a complete cutoff of Russian supply to the euro-area that could send energy prices to new heights. Such threat of further deterioration in the trade outlook may limit the support that the ECB can provide the currency via more aggressive interest rate hikes, with investors focused on the implications for the region’s growth.“It’s a highly, highly unusual situation,” said Peter Kinsella, head of FX strategy at Union Bancaire Privee Ubp SA. “The issue is that the eurozone and the European economy is going through a very large macro exogenous shock and one that the euro-zone hasn’t seen, really, ever.”From a longer-term valuation perspective, the declines in longer-term growth, productivity, and neutral rates for the euro-zone relative to its other regions, suggests that this currency weakness may be justified, according to HSBC. The same goes for the pound, which dropped below the $1.15 level for the first time since March 2020 this week.“Recent weakness has been aligned with these worsening external accounts,” strategists including Dominic Bunning wrote in a recent note. “This suggests there may be further room for an overshoot to the downside.”
US junk bond sell-off resumes after Fed snaps summer rallyRate rises and recession fears lift costs for riskier borrowersRisky US corporate borrowers are facing a renewed jump in borrowing costs as concerns that further sharp Federal Reserve rate rises will weigh heavily on the world’s biggest economy grip markets.Yields on US junk bonds have jumped to almost 8.6 per cent from a mid-August low of 7.4 per cent, according to an Ice Data Services index. The rise reflects a significant decline in the price of the debt.The fresh selling in high-yield bonds comes after a brief summer respite, in which most risky assets recovered somewhat from a dismal first half of 2022. Traders had hoped the Fed would take a softer approach to rate rises, but concerns the central bank will step up its fight against inflation have shattered the calm.“As this summer of optimism draws to a close, the Fed path and recession fears are returning to the fore,” said Srikanth Sankaran, strategist at Morgan Stanley.As a result, investors have raced out of funds that buy junk-rated US corporate bonds, with $8.7bn withdrawn from accounts over the past two weeks, according to flows tracked by EPFR. Redemptions in the past week ranked as the sixth-biggest weekly outflow since the coronavirus pandemic rocked US financial markets in 2020.Lotfi Karoui, a strategist at Goldman Sachs, said Jay Powell’s speech in late August at the Jackson Hole economic summit in which the Fed chair vowed to “keep at it” in the central bank’s tightening of monetary policy to fight inflation spooked investors.“Powell’s annual speech . . . delivered an unambiguous message that a dovish pivot is not in sight,” Karoui said. “For markets, this means a return to square one as investors readjust their expectations to a growth, inflation, and policy mix that is likely to stay unfriendly for quite some time.”The rise in junk bond yields reflects an increase in rate rise expectations that have affected the entire US debt market and intensifying jitters about lower-rated companies’ ability to make good on their obligations. Traders now expect the Fed to lift rates to nearly 4 per cent by early next year, up from between 2.25 and 2.5 per cent today.The gap between the yields on US junk bonds and ultra low risk US government debt has jumped to slightly above 5 percentage points from 4.2 percentage points in mid-August. It started the year at about 3 percentage points. The widening spread suggests “the growth outlook is getting worse, that the probability of recession is creeping up,” said Ed Smith, co-chief investment officer at Rathbone Investment Management.Morgan Stanley’s Sankaran noted, however, that while the current level points to a more “stressed market”, it would need to rise significantly further to fully price in recession risks.Defaults have generally remained low, with many companies having used the period of historically low interest rates in the wake of the coronavirus crisis to decrease their borrowing costs and push back when payments of the original amounts borrowed will come due.However, cracks are beginning to show. There were default events affecting $4.7bn worth of bonds and loans in the US market in August, the third-highest total since November 2020, according to JPMorgan Chase data. The Wall Street bank noted August marked the sixth straight month of default activity exceeding $3.3bn compared with an average of $1.3bn per month from November 2020 to February 2022.Sankaran added that while the second-quarter earnings season, which provided the most recent snapshot of corporate America’s fundamentals, “was not overwhelmingly negative . . . evidence of weakening demand, shifts in consumer spending and inventory pressures for retailers were abundant”.The sell-off comes at a poor time for major banks across Wall Street, which are expected to begin pitching tens of billions of dollars worth of bond sales to investors next week. Money managers are paying particular close attention to a $15bn financing package banks led by Bank of America are planning to launch to fund Vista Equity Partners and Elliott Management’s $16.5bn takeover of software company Citrix.The banks are staring down losses that could exceed $1bn on the deal, which is seen as a bellwether for the terms lenders will demand on new junk debt.
Hoy mismo La Vanguardia anuncia un ERTE en SEAT y lo complementa, tras referirse a Seat y a Figueruelas, diciendo que dos de cada tres plantas de cogeneración están cerradas. El coste de estas centrales fabriles (en todos los sectores) se ha disparado también por el Coste de los Derechos de CO2 (Multiplicado por 17 veces desde 2012 con el 80% de la subida desde la pandemia)