PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos-Verano 2022

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/80cc7ebb-8c62-4b75-bfd5-37e9644d1156

After a pandemic-era buying spree, Boston’s boom times are over

Rising mortgage rates and inflation are taking a toll — but ultra-luxury developments continue apace

Boston’s property market has boomed in the past year. In June, the average home price peaked at a record $900,000, a gain of 11 per cent over June 2021, according to the Greater Boston Real Estate Board (GBREB).

Prices of Boston’s luxury homes increased at an even sharper pace, fed by a surge of high-end condo developments. The average price hit $2.2mn in June, up 16.1 per cent from the previous year, and nearly 30 per cent from June 2020, according to real estate brokerage Redfin.

But just as in other midsized US cities ranging from Austin to Portland, Oregon — whose popularity had raced in the aftermath of Covid-era restrictions as people reassessed their housing needs — signs of market decline have begun to appear. Rising mortgage rates, inflation fears and a volatile stock market are beginning to take their toll on Boston’s buying spree.

The number of single-family homes sold in Boston in July 2022 fell 18.6 per cent year-on-year — to the lowest volume in more than a decade — while condo sales sank a full 25 per cent during the same period. Pending sales were also down by 10 per cent this summer — despite nearly 20 per cent more active listings, reports the GBREB.

Although these falls are hardly America’s steepest — key Florida markets are faring far worse — fears of a bubble have begun to emerge.

“Boston is not unique as many US markets now are considered ‘overvalued’,” says Selma Hepp, deputy chief economist at property analytics company CoreLogic. Growth rates for Boston homes have fallen to 10 per cent annually from 13 to 14 per cent annually, according to Hepp, who says she anticipates this number to reach 6 per cent by the end of 2022 and potentially half that in 2023.



Enthusiasm among some buyers remains. Across the city, a crop of ultra-luxury condo projects — in branded hotel developments from the likes of Four Seasons, St Regis and Raffles — continue to lure UHNW buyers (both local and foreign) as well as pushing up top-of-the-market prices. The average Raffles unit, for instance, is $3.8mn, nearly double the average numbers at the top of the Boston luxury market.

At the same time, once less-favourable areas such as Dorchester — and non-city centre districts like Somerville — are attracting veteran Bostonians keen on bigger spaces at lower prices.

Take Casey, who, along with his husband Joey (they did not wish to disclose their surnames), recently bought a three-bedroom, 1,900 sq ft condo in Dorchester’s increasingly desirable Savin Hill area for just over $900,000. The couple — who were renting in far-costlier Cambridge — exemplify Boston’s current crop of buyers: Casey works in healthcare, Joey in finance, and both have sizeable salaries and home-office hybrid work arrangements.

“We looked across the city, but were able to get three bedrooms instead of two in our price range in Dorchester,” says Casey. “The area also has a nice gay population and it’s within walking distance to a beach.”

Coldwell Banker estate agent Greg Dekermenjian says Casey is typical of new buyers in Dorchester, a traditionally African-American district that’s actually the largest neighbourhood in Boston.

“Dorchester prices are $500-$700 a square foot,” he says, which is less than half the cost of historically upmarket areas such as Back Bay or South End. Dorchester still abounds in traditional housing-stock styles such as the “triple-decker” homes that are found throughout Massachusetts and which Casey and Joey purchased.

Triple-deckers also form the core of an innovative East Boston housing scheme. The East Boston Community Development Corporation will buy 36 mostly triple-decker buildings containing 114 rented homes in order to keep them affordable. A trust of neighbourhood groups would operate the development. The project, which is set to be finalised later this month, is the first of its kind east of the Mississippi River.

Despite those historic homes, Dorchester, like the rest of Boston, has experienced a surge in the types of large-scale development whose new-build, high-end housing is helping inflate average sales prices across the city. The most notable Dorchester development is a 1.56mn sq ft project with nearly 600 homes spread across a trio of residential buildings along with retail space, a park, plaza and four laboratory buildings (the latter a response to Boston’s ever-expanding biotech industry).

Still in planning stages, the project — if completed — will form a triangle with two additional equally grandiose redevelopment schemes including Southline Boston, which will inhabit the former Boston Globe newspaper headquarters.

Across town, WS Development’s massive Boston Seaport is a 33-acre mixed-use development close to the Financial District with anchor tenants including Amazon — which will soon occupy more than 1mn sq ft of commercial space — along with rental and sales towers with nearly 2,200 total units. Among them will be the forthcoming St Regis, where prices begin at just over $2mn for a one-bedroom apartment.

Such numbers, Dekermenjian says, are not reflective of Boston as a whole, where pockets of affordability can still be found. For instance Megan, who did not wish to disclose her surname, moved with her husband and two children to a renovated three-bedroom home in Somerville two summers ago which they bought for $1.5mn, just down the street from their previous home.

“That was our budget and we completely assumed we’d have to settle for a suburb further out such as Belmont, Arlington or Lexington,” she says. “We still can’t believe that not only could we stay in Somerville, but our kids can still walk to school.”

[wanderer]

Buenas tardes

Estamos ya en otoño ?
Nos fiamos del calendario de Gregorio o esperamos a que lo diga el sol ?

Ayer mientras esperaba a Putin, con mi honrilla herida por el rapapolvo, en mi bici camino de casa, me puse a escuchar al reputado Pablo Gil; no suelo hacerlo, es la segunda vez que lo hago y no le tengo calado.... hablaba de la vivienda como seguro contra la inflación y contó una anécdota un poco langosta con sus hijos ¿ es un pisitos ?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QoMquQ4gISk

Después escuché este otro y ya me quedé tranquilo.... a la espera de que no me fallara Putin

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=418O1ufm4MU

Espere a mañana:

Cuenta atrás para que comience el otoño 2022 en España. El cambio de estación se producirá oficialmente el próximo viernes 23 de septiembre, a las 3:04 horas (horario peninsular). Durará 89 días y 21 horas hasta concluir el 21 de diciembre, cuando comenzará el invierno, según cálculos del Observatorio Astronómico Nacional (OAN)....
https://www.lavanguardia.com/natural/20220921/8533809/cuando-empieza-otono-2022-espana-como-sera-nueva-estacion-pmv.html

[Derby]

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/mortgage-rates-reach-highest-since-august-2007

Mortgage rates reach highest since August 2007

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.29 percent.

[AbiertoPorDemolicion]

He encontrado este paper, donde los chicos listos del McKinsey Global Institute ya hablaban, allá por el lejano Junio, 2020 sobre lo que ahora ya está sobre la mesa:

The future of work in Europe:
Automation, workforce transitions, and the shifting geography of employment
https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/featured%20insights/future%20of%20organizations/the%20future%20of%20work%20in%20europe/mgi-the-future-of-work-in-europe-discussion-paper.pdf

European labor markets fit into 13 clusters
To understand the nuanced local dynamics at work and the likely impact of automation in
the coming decade, we used a mathematical clustering technique to group 1,095 local labor markets across Europe into 13 clusters (see Box 1, “Data and methodology”). The locations within each cluster share commonalities in the supply and demand of labor as well as other economic characteristics (Exhibits 2 and 3). These 13 clusters broadly fit into three sets, as described below: dynamic growth hubs, stable economies, and shrinking regions.

Por cierto, según el paper, España, salvo Mierdrid, Tourism Havens y alguna honrosa excepción, va a la cola en casi todo, excepto en shrinking regions, que en eso somos los number one. Por lo menos Portugal va peor, si sirve de consuelo. Eso si, tenemos mucho potencial...

(siempre que la Clase Media Propietaria, auténtico sumidero de dinero público y desctructor de recursos financieros en crear artefactos popularacipatilstas para mantener sus rentas inmobiliarias, levante el pie que tiene puesto en el cuello del resto de España. Esto último no es del paper; lo añade el redactor del post, que es un servidor) 

[el malo]

Lo de los tipos de interés está siendo una pasteurización en toda regla 

No sé si se mantendrán lo suficientemente altos en el tiempo como para afectar a la revisión de tipos o es más un aviso a navegantes. ¿Los veremos por encima del 5% en Europa como en los tiempos de Trichet?

Revisión al alza de hipoteca, subida de la cesta de la compra y precio de la energía por las nubes. Más de uno lo va a pasar muy mal 

[Derby]

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FIXHAI



Un ejemplo de la variación que se ha producido desde enero hasta el 15 de septiembre en los tipos de interés tomando una mensualidad de hipoteca de 2.400USD:



https://twitter.com/johnburnsjbrec/status/1572194594326216706/photo/1

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-22/mortgage-investors-jump-in-after-fed-says-mbs-sales-aren-t-near

Mortgage Bonds Rally as Fed Says Sales Aren't Near

*Fed is looking to slim down its $2.7 trillion of MBS holdings
*Investors are trying to guess when selling will start

The Federal Reserve said it’s holding off on starting to sell its $2.7 trillion of mortgage bond holdings, which is encouraging at least some investors to buy the securities.   

The Fed is looking to winnow down its mortgage bond holdings as it tries to cut its balance sheet in general. For now, it’s effectively stopping reinvestment of principal payments it gets, but in the minutes to its March meeting, it said at some point it will make sense to look at selling off its securities.

The central bank is by far the biggest owner in the $9 trillion US mortgage bond market, and its efforts to cut down its holdings will have a huge impact on valuations for other investors. Trying to guess exactly when the selling starts, if it happens, has become a popular parlor game across Wall Street.

On Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said sales are “not something we are considering right now,” and not something he’s expecting to consider in the near term. Now money managers, hedge funds and real estate investment trusts are feeling more comfortable buying the bonds, said John Kerschner, head of US securitized products at Janus Henderson Group.

Mortgage bonds gained 0.4% on Wednesday, according to Bloomberg index data. The Fannie Mae 30-year current-coupon spread to a blend of 5- and 10-year Treasuries, a barometer of risk premiums in the market, narrowed 0.04 percentage point on Wednesday, a steep move.

“The fear of potential sales has weighed on the markets as a whole, and is a big reason why mortgages have under performed by as much as they have over the past two months,” Scott Buchta, head of fixed-income strategy at Brean Capital, said on Wednesday. “Powell’s answer today has given investors some room to breathe, at least over the near term.”

Citigroup said it now expects sales to start in April 2023, where its previous base case was November. It also thinks it’s possible the central bank may never sell. 

If the Fed wants to cut its holdings in mortgages materially in the next few years, it may have to sell. Mortgage rates have surged this year, with the 30-year level reaching 6.29% this week, its highest since October 2008, Freddie Mac said. Homeowners have little incentive to refinance their mortgages now, and may be more reluctant to move, meaning investors are seeing their principal payments coming in slower than they have in recent years.

Banks -- which own about a third of the market -- are cutting back on buying the bonds as their deposits fall, wrote Erica Adelberg, MBS strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, in a research note last week. It’s still not clear which group of investors will step in to buy more as the Fed and banks pull back from the market, although some relative value investors may be growing more interested given where spreads are, she wrote.

[AbiertoPorDemolicion]

Lo de los tipos de interés está siendo una pasteurización en toda regla 

No sé si se mantendrán lo suficientemente altos en el tiempo como para afectar a la revisión de tipos o es más un aviso a navegantes. ¿Los veremos por encima del 5% en Europa como en los tiempos de Trichet?

Revisión al alza de hipoteca, subida de la cesta de la compra y precio de la energía por las nubes. Más de uno lo va a pasar muy mal 

Los tipos de interes no van a tener ninguna influencia en El Pisito, porque el gobierno central, los 17 reinos de Taifas y los 5.000 hay-untamientos, ya están preparando los paquetes de ayudas a El Pisito.

Solo una parte más o menos pequeña de los hiptecados están al borde del embargo. Y ya les están preparado el paquete de ayudas:

El Gobierno está abierto a estudiar ayudas a los hipotecados si no causan más inflación
https://www.economiadigital.es/politica/el-gobierno-esta-abierto-a-estudiar-ayudas-a-los-hipotecados-si-no-causan-mas-inflacion.html

Plan 'Mi primera vivienda': cómo pedir las ayudas a la hipoteca en Madrid si eres menor de 35 años
https://www.elmundo.es/como/2022/09/20/63298861fdddff5c808b45c2.html

Y si no, lo alquilo:
https://www.mitma.gob.es/arquitectura-vivienda-y-suelo/programas-de-ayudas-a-la-vivienda/programa-de-ayudas-al-alquiler-de-vivienda
Programa de ayudas al alquiler de vivienda
Cuantía de la ayuda
- Con carácter general: hasta el 40% de la renta mensual
- Mayores de 65 años: hasta el 50% de la renta mensual
- Ayuda hasta el 30% del alquiler en el tramo comprendido entre 601 y 900 euros en determinados ámbitos a definir por las comunidades autónomas.


El resto del Propietariado, está muy lejos de llegar al nivel de subsistencia para tener que "malvender" El Pisito o necesitar ayudas. Con todo lo que ya tienen ganado, van a aguantar todo lo que puedan porque saben que el tiempo corre de su parte: tienen la oferta estrangulada y la gente en algún sitio tiene que vivir, por lo que tarde o temprano alguien les vendrá con necesidades de vivienda(*). (Recuerden: en el capitalismopopular, la escasez es riqueza)

¿Qué de donde sale todo el dinero? Pues de aquí:
La deuda pública de España aumenta en julio
https://datosmacro.expansion.com/deuda/espana
Así pues, la deuda en julio ha sido del 116,83% del PIB y la deuda per capita, que ha aumentado este mes, ha sido de 31.105 €. Si la comparamos con la de julio de 2021, vemos que en el último año, la deuda ha crecido 1.004 € por habitante.

¿se acuerdan de esto?
https://www.elsectorpublico.es/elsp/capitulo/1687859/1662143/v-la-estabilidad-presupuestaria.html
La estabilidad presupuestaria en Europa
Una vez superado el umbral de la entrada en la tercera fase, la disciplina fiscal continuó bajo el Pacto de Estabilidad y Crecimiento (PEC) y los consiguientes Programas Nacionales de Estabilidad. La Unión Europea perseguía con el PEC que los Estados Miembros se mantuviesen en el medio plazo en una posición de equilibrio o superávit público, permitiéndose un déficit máximo del 3% del PIB, que de no cumplirse derivaría en la aplicación de sanciones. Cabe destacar, dentro de estos programas, el hecho de que hacen referencia al conjunto de las administraciones públicas, incluyendo, obviamente, a las administraciones territoriales.

Pues así hemos ido:
Déficit público de España
https://datosmacro.expansion.com/deficit/espana
Fecha   Déficit(M.€)Déficit (%PIB)
2021   -82.819   -6,87%
2020   -115.200   -10,27%
2019   -38.116   -3,06%
2018   -31.224   -2,59%
2017   -36.056   -3,10%
2016   -47.893   -4,30%
2015   -57.235   -5,31%
2014   -63.097   -6,11%
2013   -76.838   -7,53%
2012   -119.100   -11,55%
2011   -103.606   -9,74%
2010   -102.193   -9,53%
2009   -120.576   -11,28%
2008   -50.731   -4,57%
2007   20.287   1,89%
2006   21.322   2,12%
2005   11.421   1,23%
2004   -941          -0,11%
2003   -3.009   -0,38%
2002   -2.374   -0,32%

Al propietariado le queda mucho margen de maniobra todavía para que una subida de tipos les pueda echar abajo el entramado que tienen montado entorno a El Pisito. Ya lo hicieron en 2012, les salió bien, y lo van a volver a hacer en 2022. ¿Hasta cuando? Hasta que el deficit público, y las clases bajas, lo aguante.

(*) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jOxHsuV83KA

[Cadavre Exquis]

4-Day Workweek Brings No Loss of Productivity, Companies in Experiment Say
Posted by msmash on Thursday September 22, 2022 @02:40PM from the encouraging-feedback dept.

More than 70 companies in Britain are undergoing a six-month experiment in which their employees get a paid day off each week. So far, most companies say it's going well. SpzToid shares a report:

Most of the companies participating in a four-day workweek pilot program in Britain said they had seen no loss of productivity during the experiment, and in some cases had seen a significant improvement, according to a survey of participants published on Wednesday. Nearly halfway into the six-month trial, in which employees at 73 companies get a paid day off weekly, 35 of the 41 companies that responded to a survey said they were "likely" or "extremely likely" to consider continuing the four-day workweek beyond the end of the trial in late November. All but two of the 41 companies said productivity was either the same or had improved. Remarkably, six companies said productivity had significantly improved. Talk of a four-day workweek has been around for decades.

In 1956, then-Vice President Richard M. Nixon said he foresaw it in the "not too distant future," though it has not materialized on any large scale. But changes in the workplace over the coronavirus pandemic around remote and hybrid work have given momentum to questions about other aspects of work. Are we working five days a week just because we have done it that way for more than a century, or is it really the best way? Some leaders of companies in the trial said the four-day week had given employees more time to exercise, cook, spend time with their families and take up hobbies, boosting their well-being and making them more energized and productive when they were on the clock. Critics, however, worried about added costs and reduced competitiveness, especially when many European companies are already lagging rivals in other regions. More than 3,300 workers in banks, marketing, health care, financial services, retail, hospitality and other industries in Britain are taking part in the pilot, which is one of the largest studies to date, according to Jack Kellam, a researcher at Autonomy, a think tank that is one of the organizers of the trial.

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/mercados/2022/09/21/632b3fcde5fdea841d8b4636.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/expansion-nacional/20220922/page/2

Los unicornios pierden su magia

https://www.expansion.com/empresas/2022/09/22/632b6fc2468aeb42758b4612.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/economia/financial-times/2022/09/21/632b14ac468aebe61c8b4613.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

Lo de construir "pisitos" es algo pasado de moda, ahora lo que se lleva es construir centros de datos...

https://www.expansion.com/inmobiliario/mercado/2022/09/22/632b55cfe5fdead9258b4588.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/expansion-nacional-int/20220922/281874417268833

ING y EBN dan una vuelta de tuerca a la remuneraci­ón del ahorro

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/economia/2022/09/22/632b6335468aebdd7d8b45e8.html

Saludos.