Tema: PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos-Otoño 2022

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/empresas/banca/2022/12/07/638fcfa6468aeb98788b4605.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/mercados/2022/12/07/638fa6e2468aebbc488b45b9.html

https://www.expansion.com/economia/financial-times/2022/12/05/638e2b97468aeb67728b461d.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/opinion/2022/12/07/638fa941468aeb502e8b465b.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/fiscal/2022/12/07/638f9c82468aeb13188b468b.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/mercados-cotizaciones/noticias/12071752/12/22/El-BCE-se-inclina-por-subir-los-tipos-50-puntos-basicos-hasta-alcanzar-niveles-no-vistos-desde-2008.html

https://www.eleconomista.es/mercados-cotizaciones/noticias/12071756/12/22/Los-datos-macro-presionan-a-la-Fed-a-elevar-su-tono-de-nuevo.html

Saludos.

[Benzino Napaloni]

Plan maestro de Blackstone: vamos a exprimir más a los bichos!! 

https://www.ft.com/content/d02a59fb-493a-427a-849a-9acbd576cdbf

Si no lo alquilo lo ven... oh wait.

Hacen esto porque no les queda otra salida patada hacia adelante. Ojo que igual tenemos "sorpresa en Las Gaunas" antes de las uvas...

[Derby]

Bajarán los precios del inmobiliario, no se sabe cuánto.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/whats-going-on-with-the-housing-market-11670430769

What’s Going On With the Housing Market? By Nicole Friedman and Nick Timiraos

Home buyers and sellers are trying to make sense of a downturn that’s full of contradictions: Demand has seized up but supply is still low; prices are sliding but not plummeting; and no one can agree on what comes next

Home sales have plunged. Buyers, facing the fastest-rising mortgage rates in decades, are scrapping their plans. And forecasters have rarely disagreed so much over where the market goes next.

By many measures, the housing market entered a sharp slump this summer after the Federal Reserve abruptly ended a real-estate boom fueled by the pandemic and record-low borrowing rates.

Mortgage rates climbed above 7% to 20-year highs in October and November before ticking lower in recent weeks. Existing-home sales have dropped for nine straight months through October, the longest streak since the National Association of Realtors began tracking this data in 1999.

It is typical for rising interest rates to cool the housing market. But the speed of this year’s mortgage-rate increase has created a sense of whiplash among buyers and sellers, and that makes it difficult to predict how long the housing slump will last and how bad it will get.

Contradictory signals abound. Demand has tumbled, but the supply of homes is still low. Prices have fallen but are well above their pre-pandemic levels. Interest rates are sky-high compared with a year ago, but below where they stood in the decades when many older Americans bought their first homes.

“When prices are rising, people can’t believe housing will ever go down, and then once prices fall, they can’t believe it will ever go up,” said Glenn Kelman, chief executive at real-estate brokerage Redfin Corp.

The pandemic caused home sales to surge in 2020 and 2021. Home buyers looked for more space with the rise in remote work and rock-bottom interest rates made buying a home affordable for many Americans.

Home prices soared 45% between January 2020 and June 2022, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index. Rents also soared as younger people chose to move out on their own rather than live with roommates.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell went so far recently as to call the boom phase of the housing market a “bubble.”

“You had housing prices going up at very unsustainable levels and overheating,” he said at a Nov. 30 event. “Now the housing market’s going to go through the other side of that and hopefully come out in a better place.”

Next year’s predictions for home prices are unusually varied, economists say. KPMG LLP, an audit and consulting firm, is calling for prices to fall 20% next year, and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. forecasts a 7.5% drop. The National Association of Realtors, meanwhile, is forecasting a 1.2% increase in existing-home prices, and the Mortgage Bankers Association sees prices up 0.7% next year.

How long the slump in sales lasts depends in part on how long it takes the Fed to get control of inflation, which is running at a 40-year high and has triggered the most rapid series of interest-rate increases by the Fed since the early 1980s. The Fed’s efforts to slow the economy in great part depend on the housing market slumping, both because that cools off demand for goods and services, and because housing itself is an important contributor to inflation. Other factors, such as wage increases, could keep inflation on the boil.

Low supply

The surge in interest rates has pushed both buyers and sellers out of the housing market. Buyers have been priced out, or they have retreated because they think prices might be lower in the future.

Ole and Amanda Wendroth scrapped plans to buy a starter home in Ann Arbor, Mich., earlier this year after being repeatedly outbid. They resumed this fall, and then paused their search again. Even though houses now are sitting on the market longer and prices are starting to fall, interest rates have risen so much that their expected monthly payment would be more than $1,000 beyond what they pay in rent.

“The math just doesn’t add up,” Mr. Wendroth said.

Real-estate agents say unless people have to sell their homes due to life events like job relocations or divorces, they are staying put. Almost 70% of households with mortgages have rates below 4%, and they are reluctant to trade in a low mortgage rate for a higher one on a new home.

Home prices so far haven’t dropped sharply. Prices have slid from their springtime peaks, but they are still above year-ago levels, largely because the supply of homes for sale remains lower than normal for this time of year.

Taylor and Teri Abbett, who have three daughters, looked in 2020 and 2021 for a bigger house to buy in the Pittsburgh area. They lost out on about four offers.

Earlier this year, with interest rates climbing, the Abbetts gave up and decided to stick with their current mortgage, which has an interest rate below 3%, Mr. Abbett said.

“If [home prices] are still inflated and you’re having to pay a higher interest rate, then it’s sort of a no-brainer to step back and see what happens,” he said.

The relatively low inventory is one reason the current plunge in housing activity looks different from the subprime crisis of 2007, which caused years of home-price declines and millions of foreclosures, triggering a global financial crisis that rippled through the rest of the economy.

An impending downturn could look more like the piercing but swift decline in activity recorded in the early 1980s, when the Fed raised rates to double-digits to address very high inflation, said Doug Duncan, chief economist at Fannie Mae.

“People simply stopped transacting,” he said. “As soon as the Fed got control of inflation and started working it down, you saw transactions start to pick up.”

Home prices stopped increasing after the Fed jacked up interest rates in 1979, but prices and sales picked up again in 1983 after the Fed slowed its aggressive rate increases.

Fannie Mae is forecasting that home prices will fall 1.5% next year and 1.4% in 2024.

Others take a more negative view, though most forecasters expect the current housing downturn to be shorter than the prolonged slump following the subprime crisis. Real-estate research and advisory firm Zelman & Associates, a unit of Walker & Dunlop Inc., expects home prices to fall 12% from their peak a few months ago through late 2024, before starting to rebound. John Burns Real Estate Consulting expects prices to fall 20% peak-to-trough and also expects the low point near the end of 2024.

Healthier lending

Homeowners have more equity in their homes than they did ahead of the last downturn, and tighter lending standards since then mean they’re unlikely to default as long as their incomes don’t drop suddenly.

The homeowners most at risk are those who bought homes when prices were near their peak. About 8% of homes bought with mortgages in 2022 were underwater as of September, according to mortgage-data firm Black Knight Inc.

“If you bought at the peak and you put very little money down—yeah, you’re in some trouble,” said Fed governor Christopher Waller at a discussion hosted by UBS in Sydney last month. But for many homeowners who bought in 2020 or earlier, their homes would still be worth far more than they paid, even if prices fell 15%, he said.

Recently, the number of homes for sale has increased as homes sit on the market longer. In the four weeks ended Nov. 27, the number of active listings on the market rose 12.9% from a year earlier, according to Redfin, the real-estate brokerage. But the new listings of homes for sale in that period fell 21% from a year earlier, and supply remains lower than normal.

“What’s stunning is that price declines are occurring without a lot of excess supply,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG. “It’s all about affordability.”

Ms. Swonk said she fears that falling home prices could kick off a vicious cycle, particularly if the economy enters a recession and job losses rise. As home values decline, consumers crimp their spending because they feel less wealthy.

While many buyers and sellers are waiting to see where the market will go, home builders need to keep selling homes. Builders increased production in recent years to meet demand, and they have a large backlog of homes still under construction.

About 37% of builders surveyed by the National Association of Home Builders said they cut prices in November, and almost 60% of builders said they used incentives to attract buyers, such as paying lenders to reduce buyers’ mortgage rates.

In the Denver area, real-estate agents are being offered generous commissions and bonuses “from builders who six months ago would not talk to a real-estate broker,” said Lou Barnes, a third-generation mortgage banker in Boulder, Colo.

When home prices start to fall, said Phillippe Lord, chief executive of Scottsdale, Ariz.-based builder Meritage Homes Corp. , “buyers are hesitant until they are confident that they’ve sort of reached bottom.”

Mr. Lord said he expects meaningful price declines in some markets, especially in the West. Meritage has cut its prices in some markets, and its cancellation rate rose to 30% in the third quarter, up from 13% the prior quarter.

Some of the housing markets that posted the strongest home-price growth in recent years are leveling off the fastest. In the four weeks ended Nov. 27, pending home sales fell the most year-over-year in Las Vegas; Phoenix; Austin, Texas; Jacksonville, Fla.; and Sacramento, Calif., according to Redfin.

In Sacramento, which became a major destination for people relocating from the Bay Area during the pandemic, median single-family home-sale prices climbed from $400,000 in March 2020 to a peak of $560,000 in June 2022, according to the Sacramento Association of Realtors. By October, the median price had dropped to $510,000.

“We may have further to go, but I just can’t see us going back to the pre-pandemic $400,000,” said Erin Stumpf, who has been a real-estate agent in Sacramento since 2005. “I have a lot of buyers right now that I think are waiting for the first of the year.”

Many prospective buyers can still qualify for loans at current interest rates, but they are afraid to buy when prices are falling and mortgage rates are volatile, said Sheryl Palmer, chief executive of Scottsdale-based builder Taylor Morrison Home Corp.

“Our buyers can afford to buy,” she said. “So much of this is sentiment, and fear, and trying to understand where things are going.”

[Derby]

Si no lo alquilo lo ven... oh wait.

Hacen esto porque no les queda otra salida patada hacia adelante. Ojo que igual tenemos "sorpresa en Las Gaunas" antes de las uvas...

Está claro, sí. No van a obtener rentabilidad de otra manera  Los inversores empiezan a escasear...y vender a precios más elevados no está dentro de las previsiones, aunque ya han tenido que vender:

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/blackstone-sell-stake-mgm-grand-mandalay-bay-vici-properties

Blackstone to sell stake in MGM Grand, Mandalay Bay to VICI Properties

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562896-vici-hits-jackpot-mgm-acquisition-from-blackstone

VICI Hits The Jackpot With MGM Acquisition From Blackstone

(...) Potential Reasons Why Blackstone Sold to VICI

1. To raise liquidity – Plain and simple to meet investor redemptions.

2. Risk Off or Risk Posturing – To raise cash in anticipation of a recession that significantly extends to the real estate market, impacting prices more than they already have.

3. Things that make you go, hmmm? You’re a $69B organization and don’t have enough cash to meet investor liquidity demands. That doesn’t smell right. SA Marketplace author Dane Bowler highlights some points in an article titled Beware Blackstone Real Estate Funds. As showcased above, BREIT has a 23% Industrial concentration, and as the appeal for industrial buildings grew in the search for higher yields compared to owning Treasuries and low-risk bonds; the tides have turned. Skyrocketing interest rates, falling rents, negative leverage, debt, and dwindling returns on investment are prompting investors to want out of investments, not seeing returns. And after doing the math, Blackstone will need roughly $6.75 billion to make investors whole at the mere 5% gate access. Plain and simple, it sounds like one of the world's largest alternative asset managers could be struggling for liquidity.

But one company’s bust may be another’s boom, and VICI may have hit the jackpot.

[sudden and sharp]

Mientras tanto... en el Casino:









[ Ahí... partiendo la pana.  ]

[puede ser]

https://www.eleconomista.es/tecnologia/noticias/12072190/12/22/Elon-Musk-esta-poniendo-camas-en-las-oficinas-de-Twitter-y-las-autoridades-de-EEUU-lo-investigan.html

Elon Musk está poniendo camas en las oficinas de Twitter y las autoridades de EEUU lo investigan
Musk está transformando las salas de reuniones en dormitorios
Además de camas, ha puesto mesillas de noche y sillones
El Ayuntamiento está investigando si se violan las normas de la ciudad

(...)
En las últimas semanas, la compañía ha ido convirtiendo antiguas salas de conferencias en áreas de descanso. Estos nuevos espacios para reposar están totalmente equipados, no solo con camas, sino con mesillas de noche o sillones, según han explicado fuentes conocedoras de la situación a Bloomberg. Ya no se necesita tanto espacio para reuniones, ya que la plantilla ha quedado considerablemente reducida tras los despidos y las marchas de miles de empleados.
(...)

Fomentando la autoexplotación, (cf. La sociedad del cansancio,  Byung Chul Han)

https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/2022-12-07/yoga-centro-hinduista-zamora-aldea_3535872/

Yoga para repoblar la España vaciada: un centro hinduista reflota una aldea zamorana
20 'yoguis' llegados de Barcelona han revitalizado un antiguo espacio de turismo rural en declive. Buscan un lugar donde meditar y conectar cuerpo, alma y mente
(...)
El Ayuntamiento aplaude su llegada porque los nuevos empadronados ya disponen de cartilla médica en Brandilanes y entre ellos hay bebés que en un futuro estudiarán en el colegio de Fonfría y evitarán así su cierre, ya que ahora únicamente tiene seis alumnos. "Ellos vienen buscando el contacto con la naturaleza, el paisaje y la tranquilidad del entorno y eso lo podemos ofrecer a paladas", explica el alcalde de Fonfría, que a tan sólo ocho kilómetros de Brandilanes también tiene sobre la mesa otro proyecto que busca esas mismas características.
(...)

Será por casas...

[sudden and sharp]

 

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/f737dd05-26ed-452f-8acf-b16139fcea3d

‘What’s the point of buying?’ China’s property woes push young to rent

Government looks to growing rental sector to ease crisis among real estate developers

A few months after her wedding this year, Lilian Li moved from the south-western Chinese city of Chongqing to an apartment near Beijing’s financial district.

But while Chinese newly-weds typically see property ownership as an essential next step after marriage, Li and her husband are instead renting a two-bedroom apartment in the capital for Rmb13,000 ($1,821) per month.

To buy an identical apartment, Li and her family would need more than Rmb5mn just for the down payment — the equivalent of more than 30 years’ rent.

“My husband and I had a deep conversation about the life we want, and we reached an agreement not to buy,” said Li, 28. “We don’t want to owe our parents a massive down payment or to fall heavily into debt.”

Increasing numbers of young Chinese, the main buyers of urban homes, are making the same decision — with potentially far-reaching implications for the nation’s troubled property market.

Affordability is a thorny issue for homebuyers in China, where average house prices have nearly doubled over the past decade. Rents have also increased, but by much less. The ratio of the cost to buy residential properties to their monthly rent was above 600 in major cities in June 2022, according to calculations by real estate data firm Zhuge Zhaofang. In 2007, the ratio was 400 or below.

A ratio of more than around 200 is considered a warning signal of a potential property price bubble, according to a report by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a state think-tank.

In Beijing, the average apartment now costs about Rmb69,000 per square metre, according to real estate data provider creprice.cn.

First-time buyers typically rely on family support and debt to purchase a living space in big cities. But the woes of real estate developers such as Evergrande, which defaulted last year as a liquidity crisis gripped the property sector, have left many buyers with unfinished homes. That has prompted potential purchasers such as Li to question what has for decades been seen as China’s best household investment opportunity.

Chinese home sales by floor area in 100 cities were down about 20 per cent year on year in October, according to a survey by China Index Academy, a real estate research firm. While sales have not fallen as fast in prime areas of big cities, the pessimism across the market has dented confidence. And while new homes remain expensive, average prices across 70 cities were down 2.4 per cent in October from a year ago, the seventh consecutive month of decline, government data showed.

“With no wealth-creation effect, what’s the point of buying properties like crazy? Why not just rent?” said Victoria Zhan, a young banker who has postponed plans to buy an apartment in suburban Shanghai this year.

The research department of China International Capital Corporation forecast that the number of Chinese renting would grow by 200mn to reach 300mn by 2035.

The cooling enthusiasm for homebuying comes as the government moves to make more affordable rented housing available to young people as part of President Xi Jinping’s drive for “common prosperity”.

Authorities are pushing more government-subsidised rental homes on to the market and have rolled out “accommodative policies” for the sector including low-interest loans for developers of rental housing.

Qiqi Zhang, a Shanghai-based director at US private equity group Warburg Pincus, which first invested in rental property in China in 2013, said high house prices in major cities still put “a lot of pressure” on young people.

The government “really wants to promote rental housing to solve the accommodation needs of young people”, Zhang said.

In January, China’s housing ministry announced a target of 6.5mn units of affordable homes to be built in 40 cities over the five years to 2025, enough to house 13mn young people and new residents.

The government’s promotion of the rental housing market is increasingly intertwined with its support for property developers struggling to complete residential construction projects.

Financial regulators last month called for increased state-led conversion of unfinished homes to rental housing, and unveiled more sophisticated financial routes to help banks and investors buy out unfinished projects.

In response, the government of Kaifeng city in China’s central Henan province said it planned to buy more than 1,000 unfinished apartments next year from Evergrande and turn them into rental homes.

In the central city of Xi’an, seven banks including China Development Bank and China Construction Bank vowed to offer Rmb210bn credit lines to support rental housing projects.

CCB, the country’s second-largest bank by assets, said it had separately set up a Rmb30bn rental housing fund to buy out unfinished residential construction projects in more than 20 cities. Some projects were bought from developers at a 50 per cent discount to the price originally put on the homes, a banker familiar with the fund’s operation said.

In a research note, analysts at Morgan Stanley said state promotion of renting was in line with Xi’s 2015 call for housing to be “for living not for speculation”. But, they wrote, “the process will take time, and will for now mainly serve as downside support to the housing market”.

Li said renting rather than buying would save her and her husband money and so help them maintain their quality of life.

“We can buy an apartment in Chongqing when we are getting old and ready to retire,” she said. “Before that, I think we’ll keep renting in Beijing.”

[sudden and sharp]

 

[sudden and sharp]

Reunión de pastores...




Bin Salman organiza una cumbre árabe para Xi Jinping
https://www.lavanguardia.com/internacional/20221208/8637670/bin-salman-organiza-cumbre-arabe-xi-jinping.html

El mayor exportador de petróleo recibe estos días al mayor importador y el mundo se pregunta si hay algo más debajo de la alfombra roja, aparte del mutuo interés comercial. La visita de tres días del presidente de China a Arabia Saudí no es como las demás. Xi Jinping solo había salido de su país dos veces desde el inicio de la pandemia, antes de aterrizar ayer por la tarde en Riad.

[Cadavre Exquis]

José Luis Cava | Ya tenemos al primer Banco Central europeo, que tendrá que ser rescatado. 8/12/22 10h 45m

Saludos.