Tema: PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos-Otoño 2022

[Saturio]

Contestando o glosando un poco a las artrópodas, aunque haga no sé cuantos post desde eso.

Supongo que el timing del crash desatado por la subida de tipos será el siguiente.

-Primero el precio de los bonos. Y consecuentemente los precios de los fondos de inversión que estén con parte de la cartera en renta fija, planes de pensiones y ese tipo de cosas.
-Segundo la bolsa. Que no está en capitulación todavía. En abril-mayo nos las prometíamos felices pero a estas alturas estamos a esos niveles o incluso un poco por encima.
-Segundo bis. los derivados de materias primas y commodities, incluyendo los derechos de emisión. Al fin y al cabo esas cosas están espoleadas por lo mismo y su burbuja se corta de la misma forma.
-tercero y último eso que llamamos mercado inmobiliario.

Algo de esto ya se ha producido en su fase inicial pero no en la de capitulación, así que para la capitulación inmobiliaria aún queda.

La primera gran noticia que tenemos que esperar es la caída de algún gran banco de inversión que esté metido un poco en todo. Tendremos nuestro Lheman o nuestro WaMu. Se aceptan apuestas.


Les recomiendo que miren el enlace y comprueben en la columna de la izquierda las rentabilidades a un año que han dado los fondos de Pictet AM.

https://www.rankia.com/fondos-de-inversion/pictet-eur-bonds-i-pictet-am



 

[Cadavre Exquis]

Facebook Conducts 'Quiet Layoffs' By Urging Managers To Identify Certain Number of Workers as Underperforming
Posted by msmash on Thursday October 06, 2022 @10:00AM from the market-condition-worsening dept.

Mark Zuckerberg and other Facebook leaders have given many hints that a reorganization is coming. Now, a specific number of workers are to be deemed "needs support," Insider has learned. From the report:

The company is already telling some to find other jobs, leaving workers to call it "quiet layoffs." It told staff last week in a weekly Q&A with CEO Mark Zuckerberg that it was extending a hiring freeze that's been in place since May. Just before this meeting, executives told directors across the company that they should select at least 15% of their teams to be labeled as "needs support" in an internal review process, one of the people who spoke with Insider said.

All the workers asked not to be identified discussing nonpublic information. This was also discussed last week in a post from a Meta worker on Blind, an app popular with tech workers that requires a valid company email address to use anonymously. "These 15% will likely be put on PIP and be let go," the person wrote. The post prompted hundreds of comments from many other Meta workers who debated how many people would be let go. In Facebook's employee-review process, someone deemed in need of support is ostensibly dipping below performance goals. It is broadly seen by workers as a "performance-improvement plan," or PIP, and a precursor to losing your job. In July, Maher Saba, Meta's head of engineering, told managers they needed to identify everyone on their teams who fell into the "needs-support" category but did not specify a percentage of people who should be labeled that way.

Saludos.

[Saturio]

Esto es muy entretenido.

Los fondos de SSGA

https://www.ssga.com/es/en_gb/institutional/etfs/fund-finder?tab=performance

[Lem]

Se nota el nerviosismo en el ambiente del sector, sí...

https://www.eleconomista.es/vivienda-inmobiliario/noticias/11978433/10/22/El-mercado-inmobiliario-global-se-acerca-al-precipicio-la-vivienda-se-enfrenta-a-un-cambio-de-ciclo-drastico.html

[...]

La locura de Reino Unido

Desde el think tank británico Cebr advierten en una nota que el caso del Reino Unido las tasas hipotecarias medias alcanzarán máximos no vistos en más de 20 años a mediados de 2023. Por ahora se han disparado hasta el 6%. En consecuencia, se espera que el crecimiento anual del precio de la vivienda entre en territorio negativo durante la primera mitad de 2023, con una contracción anual general del 3,9% prevista para todo el año. Sin embargo, la vivienda podría llegar a caer casi un 8% (desde máximos) cuando haga suelo en el tercer trimestre de 2023.

[...]

una bajada del 8% ... por curiosidad hago tracking del valor estimado de la casa que tengo alquilada. vean:



para una casa semidetached de ~120m2 y tres habitaciones en un pueblomierda a unos 40km al sur de Londres. si les enseño fotos de cuando se vendió por £560k les da un desmayo porque era digno de Sareb.

[Derby]

[Derby]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-official-says-inflation-is-stubbornly-persistent-justifying-rapid-rate-rises-11665075908

Fed Official Says Inflation Is ‘Stubbornly Persistent,’ Justifying Rapid Rate Rises

‘It is critical that we prevent an inflationary psychology from taking hold,’ says governor Lisa Cook

Recent inflation data have suggested price pressures are “stubbornly persistent” and that prices of some goods that soared last year have declined more slowly than anticipated, said Ms. Cook.

“I have revised up my assessment of the persistence of high inflation,” she said. “I am focused on the lag between signs of easing price pressures and actual inflation coming down from its very high levels.”

The Fed at its meeting last month raised its benchmark interest rate to a range between 3% and 3.25%, and officials penciled in additional, cumulative rate increases of 1.25 percentage points this year. says governor Lisa Cook

High inflation is proving to be more persistent than anticipated and has created a strong case for the Federal Reserve to lift and then hold interest rates at levels that will slow economic activity, a central bank official said Thursday.

The Fed will need to keep rates at restrictive levels “until we are confident that inflation is firmly on the path toward our 2% goal,” said Fed governor Lisa Cook in remarks at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, where she made her first speech since joining the central bank’s board this May.

Ms. Cook is one of three new governors President Biden tapped to serve on the Fed’s seven-person board this year. At each of the three policy meetings she has attended this year, the Fed has raised its benchmark rate by 0.75 percentage point.

Ms. Cook said Thursday she fully supported those increases to help bring down inflation and to prevent consumers and businesses from anticipating inflation to persist, which could create a self-fulfilling process of rising prices.

“Although lowering inflation will bring some pain, a failure to restore price stability would make it much harder and much more painful to restore it in the future,” said Ms. Cook, who was previously a professor of economics and international relations at Michigan State University. “It is critical that we prevent an inflationary psychology from taking hold.”

Recent inflation data have suggested price pressures are “stubbornly persistent” and that prices of some goods that soared last year have declined more slowly than anticipated, said Ms. Cook.

“I have revised up my assessment of the persistence of high inflation,” she said. “I am focused on the lag between signs of easing price pressures and actual inflation coming down from its very high levels.”

The Fed at its meeting last month raised its benchmark interest rate to a range between 3% and 3.25%, and officials penciled in additional, cumulative rate increases of 1.25 percentage points this year.

Officials are seeking to reduce inflation from near 40-year highs by slowing the rate of investment, spending and hiring in the U.S. economy. New applications for unemployment benefits rose last week to 219,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis, up from 190,000 the week before, the Labor Department said Thursday. That was the highest level since late August but close to the low levels they reached in 2019 before the pandemic.

Ms. Cook said the Fed’s rate increases, including those anticipated rises, “have led to a sharp tightening of U.S. financial conditions” that has weakened interest-sensitive sectors of the economy, including housing and business investment.

But Ms. Cook said the Fed should rely less on forecasts that inflation would decline given how inflation has behaved this year. “It is important to consider whether inflation dynamics may have changed in a persistent way, making our forecasts even more uncertain,” said Ms. Cook.

Given the risks of higher-than-anticipated inflation, the Fed needed to set policy based on seeing an actual slowdown in the pace of price increases and not simply forecasts that it would cool, she said.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/11979025/10/22/El-Estado-transferira-una-cifra-record-para-pagar-pensiones-38904-millones.html

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/11979835/10/22/.html

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/11979527/10/22/El-Gobierno-vuelve-a-primar-la-inversion-en-Cataluna-casi-el-doble-que-en-Madrid.html

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista/20221007/page/24/textview

La Casa Real es la única institución cuya asignación queda congelada

https://www.eleconomista.es/energia/noticias/11979463/10/22/El-Gobierno-cifra-en-5873-millones-el-impacto-de-sus-rebajas-tributarias-por-el-precio-de-la-luz.html

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/11979769/10/22/El-gasto-militar-sube-un-26-y-llega-a-su-cota-mas-alta-en-una-decada.html

https://www.eleconomista.es/transportes-turismo/noticias/11979642/10/22/Transportes-pone-el-foco-en-el-tren-con-8000-millones.html

https://www.eleconomista.es/transportes-turismo/noticias/11979193/10/22/El-Gobierno-estima-que-las-empresas-publicas-ganaran-un-55-mas-en-2023.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/banca-finanzas/noticias/11979605/10/22/La-banca-espanola-reduce-en-17100-millones-el-credito-en-riesgo-de-impago.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista/20221007/page/11/textview

La UE estudia hoy extender el tope al gas y crear un fondo de solidaridad

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/mercados-cotizaciones/noticias/11979112/10/22/El-inversor-conservador-se-enfrenta-a-las-mayores-perdidas-en-30-anos.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/mercados-cotizaciones/noticias/11979865/10/22/El-BCE-no-descarta-grave-recesion-con-inflacion-disparada.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista/20221007/page/31/textview

El FMI prevé recesión para un tercio de la economía global

Saludos.

[Benzino Napaloni]

Facebook Conducts 'Quiet Layoffs' By Urging Managers To Identify Certain Number of Workers as Underperforming
Posted by msmash on Thursday October 06, 2022 @10:00AM from the market-condition-worsening dept.

Mark Zuckerberg and other Facebook leaders have given many hints that a reorganization is coming. Now, a specific number of workers are to be deemed "needs support," Insider has learned. From the report:

The company is already telling some to find other jobs, leaving workers to call it "quiet layoffs." It told staff last week in a weekly Q&A with CEO Mark Zuckerberg that it was extending a hiring freeze that's been in place since May. Just before this meeting, executives told directors across the company that they should select at least 15% of their teams to be labeled as "needs support" in an internal review process, one of the people who spoke with Insider said.

All the workers asked not to be identified discussing nonpublic information. This was also discussed last week in a post from a Meta worker on Blind, an app popular with tech workers that requires a valid company email address to use anonymously. "These 15% will likely be put on PIP and be let go," the person wrote. The post prompted hundreds of comments from many other Meta workers who debated how many people would be let go. In Facebook's employee-review process, someone deemed in need of support is ostensibly dipping below performance goals. It is broadly seen by workers as a "performance-improvement plan," or PIP, and a precursor to losing your job. In July, Maher Saba, Meta's head of engineering, told managers they needed to identify everyone on their teams who fell into the "needs-support" category but did not specify a percentage of people who should be labeled that way.

Saludos.

"Underperforming"... Suerte con eso, Marquitos. Te va a hacer falta.

Eso de "no estar rindiendo" es una filfa absoluta. Al menos en las TIC. Hay muy pocos casos de vagos que no pegan ni golpe, o gente que no da la talla. En este último caso la causa suele ser un mal proceso de selección. En cualquier caso duran poco.

A partir de ahí, el "underperforming" ya no es cosa de una sola persona. Si me ponen fechas de entrega imposibles, o requisitos incompletos o cambiantes (un clásico), obviamente yo no voy a poder entregar lo que se me pide. Si se va la luz, ¿tiene la bombilla la culpa?


Cuando se hacen estupideces así, esta caza de brujas, es porque los números no cuadran y se están buscando culpables. Cuando en un caso así a quien hay que culpar es a la dirección y a la organización.

He llegado a irme de empresas por esto mismo. Un despido es la sanción suprema, o una medida extrema para tratar de asegurar la continuidad de la empresa en un mal momento económico. Si veo que a un compañero le echan y no se lo había ganado a pulso, o hay despidos colectivos rateando la indemnización, esa empresa queda a mis ojos marcada para siempre. Y empiezo automáticamente a buscar otra cosa.


Meta ya estaba estancada hace tiempo. Con esto empieza definitivamente su decadencia, ya veremos si hacia la desaparición o a quedarse antes como la sombra de lo que fue.

[sudden and sharp]

[...] Cuando se hacen estupideces así, esta caza de brujas, es porque los números no cuadran y se están buscando culpables. Cuando en un caso así a quien hay que culpar es a la dirección y a la organización.

Están buscando el aumento de productividad. (Ese que se autoprometieron... y que ya se han gastao. Lo habitual.)

[el malo]

Over 50% of CEOs Say They're Considering Cutting Jobs Over the Next 6 Months - and Remote Workers May Be The First Go To
Posted by msmash on Wednesday October 05, 2022 @04:45PM from the closer-look dept.

Alarm sirens from the C-Suite about a looming recession are gaining volume in America and elsewhere, but calls back to the office for full-time work are a lot softer. Most CEOs across the globe shared the view that a recession is on the horizon and coming sooner than later, according to a Tuesday report from KPMG on business-leader outlooks. From a report:

Nine in ten CEOs in the U.S. (91%) believe a recession will arrive in the coming 12 months, while 86% of CEOs globally feel the same way, according to the findings from the international audit, tax and advisory firm. That echoes the foreboding predictions coming from big name Wall Street investors like Stanley Druckenmiller. In America, half of the CEOs (51%) say they're considering workforce reductions during the next six months -- and in the global survey overall, eight in ten CEOs say the same. One caveat for people who like working from home: Remote workers may find it in their best interest to show their faces in the office as their job security becomes more uncertain.

It is "likely" and/or "extremely likely" that remote workers will be laid off first, according to a majority (60%) of 3,000 managers polled by beautiful.ai, a presentation software provider. Another 20% were undecided, and the remaining 20% said it wasn't likely. When asked how they foresaw their company's working arrangements in three years for jobs traditionally in an office, nearly half of U.S. CEOs (45%) said it would be a hybrid mix of in-person and remote work. One-third (34%) said the jobs would still be in-office, and 20% said it was fully remote. CEOs across the globe sounded more keen on in-person work. Two-thirds (65%) said in-office work was the ideal, while 28% said hybrid would be the way and 7% said it would be fully remote. The global findings pulled from U.S. business leaders, but also from CEOs in Australia, Canada, China, India, Japan and certain European Union countries and the United Kingdom.

Saludos.

Se me olvidó comentar esto el otro día (gracias Cadavre!)

Ya empezamos con los asustaviejas. Seguro que los CEOs prefieren quedarse con los menos cualificados pero presenciales que con los que más rinden pero quieren trabajar en remoto.

Al "periodista" que ha escrito esto no se le podría ver más el plumero. Casi puedo oler el odio mientras escribía esta frase:

One caveat for people who like working from home: Remote workers may find it in their best interest to show their faces in the office as their job security becomes more uncertain.

"may", "likely", "extremely likely".. datos sesgados y frases en condicional que lo aguantan todo en papel para al final no decir nada.

La propaganda a toda máquina.