Tema: PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos-Otoño 2022

[sudden and sharp]

It's happenning... 

Alabado sea Dios.




Bank makes history as it reverses quantitative easing
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-63474176

Bank makes history as it reverses quantitative easing In an historic milestone, the Bank of England has begun to unwind the key emergency support it brought in after the 2008 financial crisis. The bank sold off a tranche of government bonds on Tuesday, as it started to reverse the process known as "quantitative easing" or QE. QE has been credited with helping the UK through shocks such as Covid. But it has also been blamed for bringing in an era of "cheap money" which benefited some but not others. The Bank began QE in March 2009, to prop up the UK economy after banks stopped lending to each other and the country fell into a deep recession. To do this it electronically created new money, which it used to buy government bonds - effectively IOUs issued by the Treasury to fund government spending. Along with other measures, QE helped to keep market interest rates at historic lows. The idea was this would encourage consumers and businesses to keep borrowing and spending - supporting the economy in the process. However, it was always meant to be a temporary measure and the Bank of England has long discussed when it would begin to unwind QE. On Tuesday, it became the first central bank among the G7 developed economies to start selling off its bond holdings. It successfully sold the relatively small sum of £750m worth of bonds, out of a total holding of over £838bn. What is quantitative easing? What is the Bank of England and what does it do? When QE was tried for the first time, it was a new policy, and no-one knew quite how the Bank would go about unwinding it, which helps to explain why the bank is proceeding gradually. "We don't quite know what the impact is going to be on bond markets, so it makes sense to proceed cautiously, " says Andrew Sentance, a member of the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee who voted in favour of the first round of QE in 2009. But unwinding QE is an important part of the Bank's fight against inflation, which is currently running at over 10 per cent, rather than the 2% target. "If we want to get on top of inflation we need to get on top of this. It's not the whole part of the equation, there is interest rates, there is fiscal policy [government tax and spending decisions], as well as reversing QE - they are all pushing in the same direction." The bonds are being sold for less than the Bank paid for them, so it is making a loss on the sales, which will be paid by the Treasury. The Bank has already been reducing its QE holdings by not replacing bonds which come to the end of their term and are repaid. But it has said it wants to reduce its holdings by £80bn by next September. The first sales were postponed from September following the market turmoil following the mini-Budget.

Teóricamente después vamos nosotros, no?
Y los últimos los mericanos.

A ver dónde me equivoco; corríjanme:
frenazo de inflación, deflación interna, apreciación moneda, depreciación dólar, dolor generalizado, reset.
Apuestas para fechas?


Sds.

No sé, se supone que USA por un lado inflacionario... y nosotros por el otro. (No podemos inflacionarnos todos a la vez.)

Quédate con "administrable". 

[visillófilas pepitófagas]

En la UE, la QE tiene el efecto añadido de evitar las crisis de deuda soberana en países del sur. Por eso los tipos de la Eurozona han subido menos y más tarde. No parece que el BCE tenga mucho margen de maniobra para acabar con la QE sin sustos con las primas de riesgo, siempre que no cambien otros factores más estructurales.

[R.G.C.I.M.]

Entonces envidio a los británicos.

[sudden and sharp]

Entonces envidio a los británicos.

Yo no. (Pobres curritos.)

[Derby]

La inflación rara...y la narrativa también.

https://www.ft.com/content/837c3863-fc15-476c-841d-340c623565ae

Fed should make clear that rising profit margins are spurring inflation

Companies have taken advantage of circumstances to lift prices

In the world’s financial markets, US Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell is increasingly cast in the role of playground bully — looming over the prostrate form of the global economy and chanting “hike, hike, hike” with malicious glee. US policy rates are rising relentlessly.

However, Powell’s public remarks offer little insight into how he expects higher rates to tame inflation. The omission matters as the current policy tightening will have an impact through an unusual route. That is because today’s price inflation is more a product of profits than wages.

Broad-based inflation is normally a labour-cost problem. The rule of thumb is that labour costs are around 70 per cent of the price of a developed economy’s consumer prices. If wage increases are not offset by greater efficiency or reductions in other costs, the consumer will pay a higher price for the labour they are consuming. With normal inflation, central banks would need to create spare capacity in labour markets to push wages lower.

Wages have been rising but prices have been rising faster, so real wage growth is catastrophically negative. This is far removed from the 1970s-style wage price spiral; apart from the wage and price control debacle of Richard Nixon’s presidency, US real average earnings rose for much of the decade.

The US restaurant and hotel sector helps explain why wage costs have played a limited role in today’s inflation. Since the end of 2019, the average earnings of a worker in this sector have risen just under 20 per cent. But the number of employees has fallen over 5 per cent. Paying fewer people more money means that the sector’s wage bill has risen roughly 13 per cent. The real output of the sector has risen 7 per cent. So US restaurants and hotels are paying fewer people more money to work harder. The rise in wage costs adjusted for productivity since the end of 2019 is somewhere between 5 and 6 per cent. Restaurant and hotel prices have risen 16 per cent.

This is the current inflation story. Companies have passed higher costs on to customers. But they have also taken advantage of circumstances to expand profit margins. The broadening of inflation beyond commodity prices is more profit margin expansion than wage cost pressures.

How is this happening? Two forces have combined. Despite negative real wages, consumers have carried on consuming. Strong post-pandemic household balance sheets have allowed lower savings and increased borrowing to offset the sorry state of real wages. The resulting resilience in demand has given companies the confidence to raise prices faster than costs.

In addition, the power of storytelling has conditioned consumers to accept price rises. Imagine a story about a farmer who takes wheat to the windmill, where it is ground into flour, and then baked into bread. In that fantasy world, a rise in the cost of wheat of say 22 per cent might be used to justify a 15 per cent rise in the price of bread.

An economist might splutter incoherently over their morning toast, and point out that only 10 to 15 per cent of the price of bread is attributable to the cost of wheat — the cost of food in developed economies is not about food at all; it is labour costs. But the narrative might seem plausible to many a consumer.

And consumers seem to be buying stories that seem to justify price increases, but which really serve as cover for profit margin expansion. Indeed, the soundbite economics of the Twitter era helps this process along.

This unconventional inflation means higher unemployment and lower wages are not the only possible cure for it. Policy has more routes to lower inflation if the cause is about profits. Of course, higher unemployment and lower wages would weaken demand and squeeze profit margins.

But any softening of demand — for instance through slowing the leverage of household balance sheets — would also affect pricing power. The slowing demand for consumer durable goods this year turned the fastest ever inflation in prices for those products into the most dramatic deflation since data started being collected on them in the 1950s.

So the prices that drove the early 2021 inflation story were transitory after all. By understanding that, the narrative used to justify today’s higher prices could also be attacked. Social media memes work both ways; a narrative of “rip-off Britain” and intense media focus in the UK in 2010 may have damped inflation at that time. Ending Fed chair Powell’s sphinx-like silence on what higher rates are supposed to achieve could help turn around the inflation story.

[senslev]

Nueva no QE llamada "herramienta anti-fragmentación"

En la UE, la QE tiene el efecto añadido de evitar las crisis de deuda soberana en países del sur. Por eso los tipos de la Eurozona han subido menos y más tarde. No parece que el BCE tenga mucho margen de maniobra para acabar con la QE sin sustos con las primas de riesgo, siempre que no cambien otros factores más estructurales.

[sudden and sharp]

Som cojonuts... no me digáis que no.     


Sánchez pide cambiar las reglas para poder recibir fondos UE sin cumplir los compromisos con Bruselas
https://www.elespanol.com/espana/politica/20221102/sanchez-cambiar-recibir-ue-sin-compromisos-bruselas/714928761_0.html
Introduce una enmienda en el reglamento que establece las condiciones para recibir los fondos, justo cuando España está apercibida por Bruselas.

[Derby]

También en el NYT...

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/01/business/food-prices-profits.html

Food Prices Soar, and So Do Companies’ Profits

Some companies and restaurants have continued to raise prices on consumers even after their own inflation-related costs have been covered.

(...) Although food companies are prominent examples of how rapid inflation is being passed from producers to consumers, the trend is evident across a wide variety of industries. Executives from banks, airlines, hotels, consumer goods companies and other firms have said they are finding that customers have money to spend and can tolerate higher prices.

And this makes it harder for the Federal Reserve to achieve its goal of bringing down inflation by aggressively increasing interest rates. Fed officials are set to announce their latest rate decision on Wednesday afternoon.

[sudden and sharp]

Las crisis ya no son lo que eran... (Tócate las narices.)

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-02/el-erian-sees-danger-that-fed-will-do-too-little-on-inflation

El-Erian Sees Danger That Fed Will Do ‘Too Little’ on Inflation

*He says Powell faces ‘tricky’ task of dual mandate on economy
*Stagflation threat exists if inflation melds with recession

Investors hunger for a hint from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday that the central bank may soon pivot from its path of stepped-up interest rates. That worries market strategist Mohamed El-Erian.

[Juan]

Yo, lo que empiezo a ver clarinete, es que muchos actores están filtrando que dentro de poco habrá pivot en las políticas de tipos. No sé si están creando una narrativa para presionar a los bancos centrales o si simplemente es información, pero luego parece que los bancos centrales no pivotan, así que me inclino más por lo primero.

[el malo]

Som cojonuts... no me digáis que no.     


Sánchez pide cambiar las reglas para poder recibir fondos UE sin cumplir los compromisos con Bruselas
https://www.elespanol.com/espana/politica/20221102/sanchez-cambiar-recibir-ue-sin-compromisos-bruselas/714928761_0.html
Introduce una enmienda en el reglamento que establece las condiciones para recibir los fondos, justo cuando España está apercibida por Bruselas.

 

Antonio es el puto amo

Anda que como le digan que sí 

[Mad Men]

El Gobierno impondrá a los bancos el aplazamiento de un año en el pago de la hipoteca para un millón y medio de españoles

https://www.elconfidencialdigital.com/articulo/dinero/gobierno-impondra-bancos-aplazamiento-meses-pago-hipoteca-millon-medio-espanoles/20221021111408466348.html

Para que luego digan que el Gobierno no es propisitos.

Ya me encantaría que fuera un mercadillo tal y como dice PP.CC. Al menos en el mercadillo llega un punto que te toca bajar precio si no vendes. Lo que pasa con los pisitos es mucho peor, es un tongo pagado con dinero del contribuyente.

Siempre lo diré, los que tienen más pisos en España son pensionistas y funcionarios, y como colectivo, usarán toda su influencia para evitar que bajen los precios.

Saludos.

PD: Si no lo puedes pagar ya lo pagarás mañana, pero el precio no BAJA y con los bancos ya me aclararé yo, que por esos muchos políticos terminan como asesores,directivos o consultores de los mismos.

Estando de acuerdo con esto que dices, por mucho que atrases el pago un año, la realidad puede ser más tozuda que lo que pueda permitirse aguantar el presupuesto del Estado. De hecho esta medida está destinada a pasarle el marrón al siguiente gobierno y que se coma el sapo otro.

Puede que España siga pudiendo permitirse ir a contrapelo del resto de países del mundo, pero no creo que esta vez cuele.

El final de la historia la sabemos, pero el timing no. Estamos viendo cómo se va estirando el chicle y todos estos parches van dirigidos a eso. Quizás se haga para pasarle la patata caliente al nuevo gobierno, o quizás para mantener las ilusiones animadas de la riqueza consagrada en el santo ladrillo apilado, quien sabe.
Saludos.

[Benzino Napaloni]

O para aguantar hasta que se pasen las elecciones como se hizo en 2008.

A saber qué se dice de los fondos entre bambalinas, pero estaba claro que los fondos Covid venían con condiciones. Y si pretendían usar ese dinero para sostener el ladrillo... O contaban con el beneplácito de Europa, o son tontos a las finas hierbas.

Si al final se ha cerrado ese grifo, a ver qué gobernante tiene las agallas de decirlo. Que se acabó el ladrillo y que muchos hipotecados van a elegir entre estar pagando un sobreprecio, o perder decenas o incluso cientos de miles de euros. En un caso así sólo quedan dos salidas, o dejas que otro se coma el marrón, o te la juegas a soltarlo pasadas las elecciones, contando con que en dos - tres años sin elecciones habrá habido tiempo de que se pase el cabreo.

[Derby]

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/fed-hikes-interest-rates-75-basis-points-fourth-straight-meeting

Fed hikes interest rates by 75 basis points for fourth straight meeting

US central bank continues its inflation-fighting campaign with another big rate hike

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-set-to-raise-rates-powell-rate-hike-path-101845316.html

Fed hikes interest rates 75 basis points again, Powell says 'very premature' to talk about pause

(...) The Fed still views inflation as high on account of imbalances in demand and supply from the pandemic, higher food and energy prices and broader price pressures. Officials see the job market as strong, pointing to “robust job gains” and a low unemployment rate.

"It is very premature, in my view, to think about or be talking about pausing our rate hikes," Powell stressed. "We have a ways to go. Our policy, we need ongoing rate hikes to get to that level of sufficiently restrictive [territory] — and of course, we don't know exactly where that is. ... I would expect to us to continue to update it based on what we're seeing with incoming data."

At the same time, the job market is cooling — job openings fell sharply in August and the job quits rate is trending lower while fewer new jobs are being minted on a monthly basis. Economists project that Friday's job report will show that 200,000 nonfarm payrolls were created in October, a result that would be down from the 263,000 jobs created in September and down from the monthly average of 420,000 in 2022.

The Fed estimates interest rates will need to rise to 4.6% next year to bring inflation down toward the central bank's 2% goal. Once the policy rate reaches what the Fed feels is a sufficiently restrictive level, they would maintain that level for “some time” until there was “compelling” evidence that inflation was on course to return to 2%.(...)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-02/fed-hikes-again-by-75-basis-points-hints-at-entering-end-phase

Powell Says Rate Peak Has Risen But Pace of Hikes Could Slow

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said interest rates could peak at higher levels than previously thought, though officials could begin slowing the pace of increases as soon as their December meeting.