Tema: PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos-Invierno 2022

[sudden and sharp]

[Hoy se oficializa el RECATACRACK.]

Esa sí se la puede apuntar, maestro.

[Derby]

https://www.vozpopuli.com/espana/ramon-tamames-vox-candidato-mocion-sanchez.html

Vox propone a Ramón Tamames ser el candidato de la moción contra Pedro Sánchez

El reconocido economista estudia la oferta de Santiago Abascal para presentarse como alternativa al actual presidente del Gobierno de España en plena crisis por la reforma del Código Penal y la renovación del Tribunal Constitucional

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-01/housing-slump-deepens-from-us-to-china-in-risk-to-global-growth

Housing Slump From US to China Adds Risks to Global Economy

*Price declines are persisting in Australia and New Zealand
*Slowdown stretching to Singapore, while Hong Kong may rebound

Shaky property markets across much of the world pose another risk to the global economy as higher interest rates erode household finances and threaten to exacerbate falling prices.

Reports this week have shown the US housing slump stretched into a fifth month, China’s home sales slide continued and price declines persisted in both Australia and New Zealand. In Britain, prices are now in their worst losing streak since 2008.

Sliding home values threaten to undermine consumer confidence and weigh on household spending, which had been a rare bright spot for the global economy last year. Investment too could take a hit as developers scale back projects in response to falling prices, waning demand and higher borrowing costs.

In the last three housing busts, inflation-adjusted house prices have retraced about half of their previous gains, according to Oxford Economics. Prices have risen about 40% around the world since 2012 and the consultancy said in an October report that in a worst-case scenario, housing market weakness could knock global economic growth to around zero this year. 

In the US, last year’s run-up in mortgage rates cast a chill on the housing market, leading to the worst annual drop in sales of previously owned homes in more than a decade. That’s pressured prices, particularly in parts of the country such as San Francisco where affordability was already stretched.

That strain is set to continue during the Federal Reserve’s campaign to tackle inflation. Policymakers are widely expected to raise rates by a quarter percentage point at the conclusion of a two-day gathering Wednesday, to a range of 4.5% to 4.75%.

China Drag

In the world’s No. 2 economy, China’s property slowdown is showing few signs of abating, even as authorities ramp up efforts to revive the industry. New home sales tumbled 32.5% in January from a year earlier, preliminary data from China Real Estate Information Corp. showed on Tuesday.

Officials have taken steps to ease financing to cash-strapped developers in recent months, unwinding a deleveraging campaign that triggered a wave of defaults and dragged on economic growth in the nation.

Local authorities have also stepped up efforts to stimulate homebuying, including by cutting mortgage rates and easing down-payment requirements. Such steps are unlikely to boost sales until mid-year, according to Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Kristy Hung.

The prospect of ongoing weakness in China’s property market is a potential headwind to Nomura Holdings Inc.’s otherwise upgraded view of this year’s growth prospects, economists let by Ting Lu wrote in a Jan. 31 note. They cited the official narrative that “housing is for living and not for speculating” and declining prices as brakes on speculative demand.

British Slump

In the UK, more than a decade of steady growth has given way to the longest house price slump since the global financial crisis in 2008.

Nationwide Building Society said the average home value has fallen for five months in a row. A jump in mortgage rates and the tightest cost-of-living crisis in a generation is squeezing the spending power of home buyers, putting the cost of property out of reach to more people.

“The overall affordability situation looks set to remain challenging in the near term,” said Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist.

The average two-year fixed-rate home loan jumped to a 14-year high of 6.65% in October after the mortgage market was rattled by budget plans set out by Liz Truss during her brief spell as prime minister. Mortgage rates have come down from their peak to well below 6%, but home buyers and households renewing their deals are still facing painfully high monthly repayments.

Australia, New Zealand

Prices continued to fall in Australia and New Zealand in January, with the slide likely to continue as neither property market has yet felt the full brunt of last year’s spike in interest rates.

Many New Zealand households are on fixed-rate mortgages that have yet to roll over to a new, higher rate. As a consequence, economists are predicting house prices will fall further and will be at least 20% below their late-2021 peak by early 2024.

In capital city Wellington, prices have already fallen 18.1% from a year earlier, CoreLogic data show. In the largest city Auckland, prices are down 8.2%.

It’s a similar story in Australia, where a spike in loan repayments for those whose mortgages switch to higher variable rates this year is set to weigh on consumption, according to a report by Bloomberg Intelligence.

Repayments on 15% of home loans could jump by more than 80% when their ultra-low fixed rate expires, analysts Mohsen Crofts and Jack Baxter said in the report. They estimate the hit to household income will be the equivalent of 2.2 percentage points of retail sales.



Housing is even cooling in Singapore, which has been more resilient than many other markets. Home prices rose just 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2022, the slowest pace in more than two years, figures showed last week. Sales in December dropped to an almost 14-year low.

Still, part of the decline has stemmed from a dearth of new property launches, and analysts expect sales to rebound once supply picks up. Wealthy buyers are also buoying the luxury market.

One bright sign is coming from Hong Kong, which is seeing glimpses of a housing recovery as the border with mainland China reopens. New home sales in the city may surge more than 50% this year, buoyed by pent-up demand from mainland buyers, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

[Asdrúbal el Bello]

Para lo del brainstorming nada mejor que recordar el desertstorming. Recuerden que eso fue hace más de 30 años. Lo que deben ser capaces de sacar ahora es inimaginable.
A superpower being a superpower.

https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/1619097076922466304/pu/vid/1280x720/jmZDT24Q_QopmcwF.mp4?tag=12

PS: Cada avioncito de los que sale, con alguna excepción, representa una escuadrilla de 4-12 aviones. Ese día salieron al aire más de 2.000 aviones

[CHOSEN]

Pregunta el maestro cómo será el día después. Que hay mas allá de 2025.
Con la mil-millonada que va a entrar de fondos NextGen para reciclaje/rehabilitación, ecoresiliencia y asimilados (pilares de la agenda 2030) me inclino por pensar que no va a pasar nada.
Si se quisiera acabar con el problema se haría una AGENDA específica, esos capitalistas contrarios al modelito se reunirían en cumbres internacionales, se saturaría los medios con referencias al problema, y hasta el último corneta del ayuntamiento estaría dando la tabarra con el asunto día y noche.

El problema se arreglaba en 2008 con un RD de dos líneas.
Dos líneas.
Dos, como las que están sacando a pederastas y violadores a la calle 


Hasta que el piramide-taúd no esté incinerado, enterrado y olvidado, nada.
Y nos ponemos en el 2050.

[Derby]

En la línea de la Fed...

https://www.ft.com/content/10ead458-e4ae-4d27-8ce8-e316e8714652

ECB set to raise rates despite fall in eurozone inflation

Central bank expected to lift deposit rate by half a percentage point on Thursday as pressures persist

Eurozone rate-setters are set to raise borrowing costs by another half percentage point on Thursday, after figures published today showed underlying inflationary pressures in the region remain uncomfortably high.

The regional rate for core inflation – which excludes changes in food and energy prices, and is considered the best measure of the stickiness of price pressures — remained unchanged at an all-time high of 5.2 per cent in the year to January.

The figure, coupled with the resilience of eurozone output during the final quarter of 2022, all but confirms the European Central Bank will raise its deposit rate by another half a percentage point to 2.5 per cent at around lunchtime on Thursday.

The bank raised rates by 2.5 percentage points over the second half of 2022 in response to inflation, which hit a record high of 10.6 per cent in October. The headline rate fell from 9.2 per cent in the year to December to 8.5 per cent last month – still more than four times the ECB’s 2 per cent goal.

Anna Titareva, economist at Swiss lender UBS, said the ECB would want to see improvement in the “broader inflation environment” before changing course on its monetary policy.

“The jump in core inflation in some key countries [such as Spain] will be enough for the central bank to confirm its current hawkish stance,” said Bert Colijn, economist at ING Bank.

Ken Wattret, head of European analysis at S&P Global Market Intelligence, a data firm, said rate-setters remained “on track” to raise rates by half a point in February and by a further half-point at their next meeting in March. (...)

[Derby]

Bien, ¿no?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-01/us-job-openings-unexpectedly-surge-to-more-than-11-million

US Job Openings Surge Past 11 Million as Fed Zeros In on Labor

Vacancies at US employers unexpectedly increased at the end of 2022, illustrating a solid appetite for labor that the Federal Reserve sees as one of the last hurdles to bring down inflation.

The number of available positions climbed to a five-month high of just over 11 million in December from 10.4 million a month earlier, the Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, showed Wednesday. The increase was the largest since July 2021 and mostly reflected a jump in vacancies in accommodation and food services.

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/6f5539f7-19ff-419b-8a64-5ed528de5abf

UK unveils wide-ranging plans to regulate crypto industry

Britain seeks to align rules with traditional finance in attempt to become digital asset hub

(...)“We believe that crypto technologies can have a profound impact across financial services,” said Andrew Griffith, economic secretary to the Treasury. “By capitalising on the potential benefits offered by crypto, we can strengthen our position as a world leader in fintech, unlock growth and boost innovation.”

[Derby]

Editorial de Bloomberg:

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-02-01/federal-reserve-should-stay-the-course-on-interest-rates

The Fed Should Stay the Course

Financial markets expect the central bank to slow its monetary tightening. That would be a mistake.

The Federal Reserve’s antidote to high inflation is working. Demand is cooling, wage increases are moderating, and prices are rising more slowly than before. Even so, it’s still too soon to be confident that, without further monetary tightening, inflation will fall all the way back to the Fed’s 2% target.

After their meeting today, the central bank’s policymakers should state this clearly, and raise the policy rate by another 50 basis points, to a range of between 4.75% and 5%. Financial markets are expecting a smaller increase of 25 basis points, following four consecutive hikes of 75 points and one of 50 points last year. Despite the recent good news, this would be to err on the side of timidity.

It’s true that headline year-over-year inflation fell from its peak of 9.1% last June to 6.5% in December. And as optimists point out, this understates the improvement during the past few months. Between September and December, consumer prices went up just 0.5%, or roughly 2% at an annualized rate, in line with the central bank’s target.

Unfortunately, stripping out volatile components, the price index for core personal consumption expenditures shows a milder decline — to 2.9% (annualized) in the last three months of the year. Lately Fed Chair Jerome Powell has drawn attention to an even narrower measure as a better guide to future price pressures — PCE core services excluding housing — which seems to be holding steady at about 4%.

The Fed also pays close attention to labor costs. These too are rising more slowly than before, but the recent pace of between 4% and 5% is still too high to be consistent with 2% inflation. Despite layoffs by some big tech companies and others, the US labor market is still tight by all but the most recent standards, with an unemployment rate of just 3.5% and a persistently high ratio of vacancies to job-seekers.

A third factor should also be kept in mind: Despite the rise in interest rates over the past year, broader financial conditions (which interest rates are intended to affect) have lately eased. According to measures that take account of risk, credit and leverage, the mood in financial markets is picking up — perhaps prematurely, and in a way that risks undermining the Fed’s efforts.

Setting the policy rate in such circumstances is far from an exact science. The Fed is struggling to find a narrow path between declaring the fight against inflation as good as won, which might allow higher-than-targeted inflation to get entrenched, and restraining demand too much, which might tip the economy into recession. Despite its late start in raising interest rates, its efforts so far have gone well.

Even so, today’s expected quarter-point increase risks signaling a slackening of its determination to get inflation all the way down. The Fed should remove any doubts about its commitment.

[Derby]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/01/business/adani-enterprises-share-sale.html

Adani, Embattled Indian Company, Scraps $2.5 Billion Share Sale

The cancellation of the offering is a blow to the company and its billionaire owner, Gautam Adani.

https://www.ft.com/content/ba4f4249-c445-4369-a8fb-e7b0b0c13055

‘Extreme leverage’? Adani’s debt-driven expansion under scrutiny
Ambitious Indian group targeted by short seller allegations has doubled borrowing to $30bn in past 4 years

(...) Analysts and investors say the group’s billions of dollars in planned spending may mean it will have to borrow even more.

“By traditional metrics they are definitely overleveraged,” said Brian Freitas, founder of Auckland-based Periscope Analytics. “The question is whether their underlying businesses can grow fast enough to service the debt.”

(...)But Nitin Mangal, an independent analyst, estimates that the group will need to raise about Rs1tn in equity over the next two years to finance its capex plans and continue tapping debt markets.

Adani told the Financial Times in December that he expected further investments from “many sovereigns”.

“They have a lot of ambitious growth plans going forward,” Mangal said. “They won’t be able to survive only on debt. They have to keep more equity to keep things going on.”

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-01/irish-commercial-real-estate-deals-plummet-as-buyers-bide-time

El caso irlandés...

Irish Commercial Real Estate Deals Plummet as Buyers Bide Time

Investment in office space dropped 83% as interest rates rose
Total commercial property spending down 62% from year prior

(...) The drop-off in investment – and particularly office space – is the most recent sign of stress for the commercial property market, which has been hit hard by large technology companies with regional offices reducing their headcounts. Other real estate firms contacted by Bloomberg reported a decline in the valuation of office deals by as much as 91% over the same period.

[Derby]

Mentalidad de rebaño y precios no creíbles...lo desafía todo. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-01/spanish-house-prices-increase-by-most-in-almost-17-years

Spanish Housing Defies Global Trend as Prices Increase by Most in 17 Years

Spanish house prices posted their biggest annual increase since the boom period before the global financial crisis, after a surge in demand from buyers rushing to avoid paying higher interest rates.

Prices jumped 9% in January from a year earlier, according to a monthly index compiled by Fotocasa, a real estate website. That was the sharpest rise since September 2006. The most expensive city was San Sebastian in the Basque region, followed by Barcelona and the capital, Madrid.

[sudden and sharp]

Mentalidad de rebaño y precios no creíbles...lo desafía todo. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-01/spanish-house-prices-increase-by-most-in-almost-17-years

Spanish Housing Defies Global Trend as Prices Increase by Most in 17 Years

Spanish house prices posted their biggest annual increase since the boom period before the global financial crisis, after a surge in demand from buyers rushing to avoid paying higher interest rates.

Prices jumped 9% in January from a year earlier, according to a monthly index compiled by Fotocasa, a real estate website. That was the sharpest rise since September 2006. The most expensive city was San Sebastian in the Basque region, followed by Barcelona and the capital, Madrid.

Datos de Fotocasa... 

[Benzino Napaloni]

Mentalidad de rebaño y precios no creíbles...lo desafía todo. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-01/spanish-house-prices-increase-by-most-in-almost-17-years

Spanish Housing Defies Global Trend as Prices Increase by Most in 17 Years

Spanish house prices posted their biggest annual increase since the boom period before the global financial crisis, after a surge in demand from buyers rushing to avoid paying higher interest rates.

Prices jumped 9% in January from a year earlier, according to a monthly index compiled by Fotocasa, a real estate website. That was the sharpest rise since September 2006. The most expensive city was San Sebastian in the Basque region, followed by Barcelona and the capital, Madrid.

Datos de Fotocasa... 

¿Septiembre de 2006? ¿No fue eso un mes antes de que se hiciese oficial la bajada del número de operaciones de compraventa? ¿Y pocos meses antes de que el Tele-a-diario anunciase en titulares que ya bajaba el precio como tal?

Damas y caballeros, ya saben lo que está al caer.

[Derby]

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/01/fed-rate-decision-february-2023-quarter-point-hike.html

Fed raises rates by a quarter percentage point as it continues inflation fight