Tema: PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos-Invierno 2022

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/expansion-nacional/20230221/page/31/textview

El Bundesbank anticipa una recesión en Alemania al principio del año

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/economia/2023/02/20/63f3aa7c468aeb2f2f8b4572.html

https://www.expansion.com/catalunya/2023/02/20/63f3d119468aeb97758b4573.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/expansion-nacional/20230221/page/18/textview

Banca March da el 2,10% en depósitos

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/economia-digital/companias/2023/02/21/63f41c49468aeb581f8b461b.html

Saludos.

[Derby]

https://www.vozpopuli.com/economia_y_finanzas/corte-arbitraje-ultima-laudo-disputa-inmobiliaria-lone-star-caixabank.html

La Corte de Arbitraje ultima el laudo por la disputa inmobiliaria entre Lone Star y CaixaBank

El fondo reclama más de 300 millones a la entidad por desavenencias en la valoración de activos traspasados a la sociedad Coral Homes. La resolución del arbitraje se espera para antes del verano.

La disputa inmobiliaria entre el fondo estadounidense Lone Star y CaixaBank está cerca de resolverse tras más de tres años. El gigante norteamericano reclama más de 300 millones de euros al banco por su alianza en la gestión de ladrillo y para ello llevó la petición en julio de 2020 a la Corte Internacional de Arbitraje, que ultima el laudo sobre el choque para mediados de este año.

Así lo desvela el banco de origen catalán en sus cuentas anuales de 2022. Lone Star y CaixaBank chocaron por discrepancias en la valoración de los activos de Coral Homes, sociedad controlada al 80% por Lone Star y al 20% por CaixaBank. Ambos crearon Coral en 2018 para traspasar los activos adjudicados del banco y su filial Servihabitat, valorados en 7.000 millones de euros. Lone Star pagó 4.000 millones a CaixaBank por el 80% de la sociedad.

"En caso de resolución desfavorable de dicho arbitraje, no se espera que se produzca un impacto patrimonial significativo no contemplado en los estados financieros cerrados a 31 de diciembre de 2022", explica la entidad presidida por José Ignacio Goirigolzarri, que justifica el retraso en el arbitraje "tras algunas vicisitudes que han implicado su prolongación", aunque no concreta cuáles.

El fondo de Estados Unidos pretende deshacer la aportación de un grupo de activos inmobiliarios incluidos en el negocio transferido a Coral y reclama supuestos daños. En caso de que la Corte Internacional de Arbitraje de la razón a Lone Star, los activos en cuestión regresarían al balance de CaixaBank. Se trata, no obstante, de una cantidad muy inferior a la cifra involucrada en el acuerdo de 2018.

La resolución de la disputa inmobiliaria coincidirá en el tiempo con una de las grandes operaciones de la gestión de activos en España. CaixaBank ha lanzado la puja para hacerse con la gestión y comercialización de una megartera de unos 4.000 millones de euros en activos vinculados al ladrillo, de la que hasta ahora se encargaba Servihabitat, controlada por Lone Star y CaixaBank.(...)

[Saturio]

https://www.expansion.com/economia/financial-times/2023/02/20/63f3ad22468aeb2f2f8b4579.html

Saludos.

Es divertidísimo. Las quiebras de la UE, dice. Todos los gráficos están planos menos el amarillo y el azul que es la ponderación de los otros.

[sudden and sharp]

Pareces nuevo... La culpa es de la UE siempre.

[asustadísimos]

[Off topic:
Bacharach ha sido más importante de lo que parece.
Arthur's Theme (Best That You Can Do)
Do You Know the Way to San Jose
I Say A Little Prayer
I'll Never Fall In Love Again
Raindrops Keep Fallin' on My Head
That's What Friends Are For
The Look of Love
This Guy's in Love with You
Walk On By
What's New Pussycat
... y 'Close To You', que se me ha quedado grabado como el fondo musical de la cuenta atrás del Catacrack en la tercera semana de julio de 2022:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7rfFoG4rxxY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mnA-6vjPWT0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4mudDt2v41c
Ya que sale el genio veinteañero, hijo de madre soltera, coetáneo y vecino de Lua Lipa, nunca está de más citar esta obra maestra de la interpretación —letra y música, de Mercer y Mancini, todo un himno personal—:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VPLCk-FTVvw ]

[Derby]

[Off topic:
Bacharach ha sido más importante de lo que parece.
Arthur's Theme (Best That You Can Do)
Do You Know the Way to San Jose
I Say A Little Prayer
I'll Never Fall In Love Again
Raindrops Keep Fallin' on My Head
That's What Friends Are For
The Look of Love
This Guy's in Love with You
Walk On By
What's New Pussycat
... y 'Close To You', que se me ha quedado grabado como el fondo musical de la cuenta atrás del Catacrack en la tercera semana de julio de 2022:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7rfFoG4rxxY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mnA-6vjPWT0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4mudDt2v41c
Ya que sale el genio veinteañero, hijo de madre soltera, coetáneo y vecino de Lua Lipa, nunca está de más citar esta obra maestra de la interpretación —letra y música, de Mercer y Mancini, todo un himno personal—:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VPLCk-FTVvw ]

"Close to you" cantada por Karen Carpenter (voz angelical) forma parte de mi banda sonora personal https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=88UgwiJXEw0
Tristemente Karen Carpenter encarna el arte que transforma el sufrimiento en belleza. Es la capacidad del ser humano de dignificar el lado oscuro de la vida. Somos optimistas.

PS Mi versión particular de Moon River es la de Lisa Hannigan https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2amFEh9Xig0
Nadar contracorriente siempre es difícil, ha sido extenuante estas últimas décadas... algunos nacimos "salmón", una broma de la Naturaleza  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UwaBoX97PbQ 

[Derby]

Al ofertademandismo le ha salido una piedra en el zapato: la asequibilidad en tiempos de sequía financiera.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/existing-home-sales-unexpectedly-fall-january-straight-month

Existing home sales unexpectedly fall in January for 12th straight month

High mortgage rates sapping demand from US housing market

U.S. existing home sales slowed for the 12th consecutive month in January as high mortgage rates, surging inflation and steep home prices sapped consumer demand from the housing market.

Sales of previously owned homes tumbled 0.7% in January from the prior month to an annual rate of 4 million units, according to new data released Tuesday by the National Association of Realtors (NAR). On an annual basis, existing home sales are down 36.9% when compared with January 2021.

"Home sales are bottoming out," Lawrence Yun, the chief economist at NAR, said in a statement. "Prices vary depending on a market’s affordability, with lower-priced regions witnessing modest growth and more expensive regions experiencing declines."

[Derby]

Desde Corea del Sur: la creatividad pisitófila no ha tenido límites, hasta ahora.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-koreas-jeonse-rent-free-renters-hit-by-property-downturn-2023-02-21/

South Korea's 'jeonse' rent-free renters hit by property downturn

SEOUL, Feb 21 (Reuters) - A downturn in South Korea's home prices is causing pain in the country's unusual rent-free rental system that benefited landlords and tenants alike during a long surge in residential property prices.

In the "jeonse" scheme, tenants put up a deposit typically worth as much as 70% of the home's value, then live without paying rent for two years until the landlord returns the full amount.

This was a win-win for residents and owners for years as home prices rose and interest rates were high: the loan tenants paid to raise their deposit was cheaper than rent and landlords got an interest-free loan to deploy as they pleased.

Jeonse tenancy has been particularly popular among people in their 20s and 30s, who could not afford the full price of a home but could use the system to get a toehold into the Korean dream of home ownership.

But median house prices have fallen 12% and jeonse prices 7% over the two years to January after surging 37% and 24%, respectively, over the preceding four years, according to Korea Real Estate Board data.



'THOUGHT I WOULD BE JUST FINE'

Overextended landlords are failing to return deposits, hitting younger tenants especially hard and threatening to undermine trust in the system.

Yoo Ha-jin, 28, regrets not getting insurance for her jeonse deposit when she signed in March 2021. Her bankrupt landlord told her in December the property would be auctioned and she could expect to get around 45% of her deposit back at most.

That means she will owe at least 33 million won ($25,000) for the loan she took out on her jeonse contract expiring next month.

"I thought I would be just fine as long as I could get a jeonse deposit loan from the bank," Yoo told Reuters.

Insurance claims for failed jeonse repayments more than doubled last year to a record 1.17 trillion won ($903 million), according to Korea Housing and Urban Guarantee Corp, one of the country's three major guarantors.

Tenants in their 20s and 30s accounted for 70% of the total.

Financial authorities are working closely with other agencies to support jeonse tenants and landlords having difficulty with refunds, said an official at the Financial Services Commission.

Police are cracking down on jeonse-related crimes, saying organised fraud cases more than tripled last year to 622.

Jeonse deposit loans more than quadrupled in less than six years through October to 172 trillion won ($132 billion), according to the central bank. That equals 17% of South Korea's outstanding mortgages and 10% of household debt.



PROPERTY FALLOUT

Still, almost all jeonse loans have guarantees from public enterprises, leaving little credit risk for commercial lenders.

"The jeonse crisis poses limited macroeconomic risks, yet it is still another part of the whole property market fallout," said economist Moon Hong-cheol at DB Financial Investment.

Unexpected debt burdens on young people could exacerbate risks for the property market, a key sector that drives growth and affects financial markets. Fears of defaults on real estate projects last year triggered a credit crunch in South Korea's financial markets.

Some investment banks, such as Nomura and Citi, predict the Bank of Korea will start cutting interest rates as soon as the next three to six months to engineer a soft landing for the property market.

"It is frustrating there is really no one to blame," said Yoo, the stranded jeonse tenant. "I just think maybe I could have avoided this kind of trouble, had I had enough money to purchase my own house."

($1 = 1,295.8700 won)

[Yupi_Punto]

[EL CAPITALISMO HA FRACASADO EN LA PROVISIÓN DE VIVIENDA.— En EEUU hay un hundimiento del 'For Sale' (suma de 'single' y 'multi-family'). Por primera vez en la Historia se construye más para alquilar que para vender. Es una anomalía importantísima. Para entender el gráfico de 'CalculatedRisk', con datos de 2022T4, del Census Bureau, y que incluimos a continuación, hay que pensar que la actual alza del 'For Rent' se diferencia de la de los años 1970 y 1980 en que se produce con precios de venta o alquiler 'superultramegahiperburbujeados'. Estamos ante la representación gráfica de la financierización de un producto de primera necesidad de consumo obligatorio, encima fácil de producir.

...

Es imposible que los asalariados puedan honrar en el futuro este nivel de 'For Rent'. El daño grave a la economía ya está hecho, pase lo que pase. La avaricia rompe el saco.

https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/first-time-ever-more-built-for-rent

'Game over'.]

[Derby]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/why-germany-doesnt-like-eus-debt-reform-proposals-2023-02-21/

Explainer: Why Germany doesn't like the EU's debt reform proposals

BERLIN, Feb 21 (Reuters) - EU finance ministers started talks last week on adjusting the bloc's fiscal rules to the post-pandemic realities of high debt and significant investment needs, but some countries are not happy with the first proposal, particularly Germany.

WHICH RULES WILL BE REFORMED?

The EU is discussing how to adjust rules that govern national budgets, known as the Stability and Growth Pact. According to the Maastricht Treaty, a country's budget deficit should not exceed 3% of gross domestic product and the overall government debt should not exceed 60% of GDP.

WHY DO THEY NEED TO BE REFORMED?

If a government does not respect these rules, it can be fined, but this has never happened and is unlikely to. Most countries were not complying with the rules before they were suspended in 2020.

Some countries argue that these rules are not realistic, particularly in the post-pandemic reality of high public debt and moves towards a zero-emissions economy against the backdrop of a cost-of-living crisis.

WHAT IS THE EU PROPOSING?

The EU Commission has proposed individual debt reduction paths. This means that the Commission would negotiate with a plan to reduce debt with each individual country. Instead of implementing one-size-fits-all rules, the Commission will take a more flexible approach, taking into account the current and future conditions of each country to find a feasible path towards the debt reduction goals.

The Commission proposed that countries would have four years to put debt on a robust downward path through an appropriate setting of net primary expenditure every year. This would ease the burden of quick adjustment on countries like Italy, which has a public debt of 148% of GDP, or Greece with 186%. The four years could be extended to seven if justified by investment in areas that are a priority for the EU, like fighting climate change, or reforms that improve debt sustainability.

WHY DOES GERMANY REJECT THIS PROPOSAL?

German Finance Minister Christian Lindner is in favour of a "multilateral rules-based approach." Germany is critical of bilateral negotiations between the European Commission and individual countries, arguing that tailored rules will mean that not all countries are equal. Germany wants clear rules, with numerical references and benchmarks, applicable to all countries so that comparisons are feasible.

The second argument is that longer and individually negotiated debt reduction paths would encourage governments to postpone difficult decisions to near the end of the timeframe. For Lindner, it is essential that deficits and debt ratios are reduced at the same time in every adjustment phase.

DOES GERMANY HAVE ANY ALLIES?

Countries such as Denmark and the Netherlands consider poorer southern countries to lack fiscal discipline. Last week, as negotiations for the reforms started, the German finance minister visited Finland and Austria, countries with a similar stance on fiscal rules.

IS THERE ROOM FOR COMPROMISE?

"Germany recognises that some member states need slightly more flexible adjustment paths in terms of time," Lindner told Reuters, adding that monitoring of the rules should become more binding.

For countries with public debt higher than 60% of GDP, the rules stipulate that debt should be reduced by 1/20th of the excess, as an average over three years.

"It doesn't do us any good if we have very ambitious timeframes, but in reality we arrive at ever higher debt levels," Lindner told Reuters.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR FINANCIAL MARKETS?

Anything perceived as strengthening the euro zone's infrastructure and favouring cohesion is welcomed by financial markets, as was the case with the Next Generation EU pandemic response fund. The debt reform would likely strengthen the euro and narrow government bond yield spreads over Germany. Once agreements are reached, the reform of the Stability and Growth Pact to adapt to post-pandemic realities could help avoid fragmentation within the bloc.

[asustadísimos]

EL BUCLE VENDO-ALQUILO ES ASIMÉTRICO.—

Hay dos financierizaciones muy distintas:
— Hipotecaria: reparto del precio de adquisición en cuotas de un préstamo con garantía hipotecaria, a incrementar en los gastos ordinarios y extraordinarios de la propiedad
— Arrendaticia: descuento del flujo de alquiler neto de gastos solo extraordinarios de la nuda propiedad

Los períodos de financierización son muy distintos:
— Hipotecarios: plazo de amortización financiera del préstamo (≃ 30 años)
— Arrendaticios: tiempo de vida útil del inmueble (≃ 100 años)

Los agentes financierizadores son muy distintos:
— Hipotecarios: acreedores hipotecarios (banca al sol)
— Arrendaticios: Reits, socimis, etc. (banca en la sombra)

Las burbujas son muy distintas:
— Hipotecaria: avaricia
— Arrendaticia: miedo

Es muy fácil pasar financieramente de lo vendo a lo alquilo. Pero, una vez financierizado, es dificilísimo pasar de lo alquilo a lo vendo.

BURBUJA DE COMPRAVENTAS
↓
BURBUJA HIPOTECARIA
↓
REBURBUJA-DESAGÜE
↓
BURBUJA DEL ALQUILER

El capitalismo se ha metido en la boca del lobo. La financierización del alquiler no puede rescatarse.

La leyenda ofertademandista es el fentanilo. A golpe de magia se les ha pasado la vida y así vamos a verles morir.

El capitalismo ha fracasado, al menos, en la provisión de vivienda a los trabajadores.

[Derby]

https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/uks-hunt-says-us-green-subsidy-act-very-real-competitive-threat-2023-02-21/

UK's Hunt says U.S. green subsidy act a 'very real competitive threat'

LONDON, Feb 21 (Reuters) - British finance minister Jeremy Hunt said on Tuesday the United States' Inflation Reduction Act, that promises hundreds of billions of dollars of subsidies to green industries, was a "very real competitive threat".

There are concerns in Europe that the $369 billion of subsidies for electric vehicles and other clean technologies could put companies based on the continent at a disadvantage.

Hunt said after the financial market turmoil of last year, which led former Prime Minister Liz Truss to resign, the government does not have large sums of money to provide similar subsidies.

But he said the government would announce in the next few months some policies to help shield companies based in Britain, including looking at unlocking at 5 trillion pounds ($6 trillion) in pension funds to support the industry.

"This is not a time when it's going to be easy for us to access the GDP equivalent of $369 billion," Hunt said, speaking at a green energy conference in London.

"We have to remember in that equation that the U.S. is somewhat coming from behind, because the previous president was not remotely interested in net zero," Hunt said in response to a question on the Inflation Reduction Act.

"So there is some catch-up element in what the U.S. is doing, but it is a very real competitive threat."

Asked when the British government policy response could be announced, Hunt told reporters: "In the next few months, we are not hanging around on this.

He added: "We recognise that it is creating challenges, we don't agree with every aspect of it, but nor do we have any doubt in our ability to compete and so we need to let everyone know what the plan is."