Re: Tema: PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Primavera 2023

[senslev]

¿La banca regional de USA es banca al sol o banca en la sombra?. Hoy bajan otro par de ellos >50% pero supongo que las autoridades saben lo que hacen, de hecho para la pinta que tiene está bastante tranquilo.

[Derby]

¿La banca regional de USA es banca al sol o banca en la sombra?. Hoy bajan otro par de ellos >50% pero supongo que las autoridades saben lo que hacen, de hecho para la pinta que tiene está bastante tranquilo.

Cómo debe estar la banca en la sombra 

[senslev]

Ayer Powell dijo que es posible que haya una recesión "suavecita" y Cramer que su sentimiento con respecto a la bolsa era la más alcista en décadas. Sabiendo que no hay certezas y sólo probabilidades, y teniendo en cuenta el track record que tienen cada vez que sueltan algo de este tipo (como "transitory" o no volveremos a ver una crisis "in our lifetime")... pues eso, pero quizá esta vez sí es diferente.

[siempretarde]

Aqui esta la frase por la que la recordaremos .... cada gobernador tiene su frase y esta es la suya:

The ECB said that it would raise rates enough to hit its inflation target and keep them there "for as long as necessary".

Gracias Derby

https://www.ft.com/content/bd3c28cc-3407-45a9-9c72-9c89c9aa9740

ECB raises rates as Lagarde warns of ‘more ground to cover’

Central bank president hints at further increases to bring inflation down after 0.25 point hike

The European Central Bank raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point on Thursday, as its head warned that the fight against inflation was not yet won.

Christine Lagarde, ECB president, signalled that the decision to increase the benchmark deposit rate to 3.25 per cent would not be the last such move this year.

“We have more ground to cover and we are not pausing, that is extremely clear,” she said, while adding that borrowing costs were now in “restrictive territory”.

Thursday’s increase, the seventh consecutive rise since mid-2022, was smaller than previous increases, a sign that eurozone borrowing costs are approaching their peak. But Lagarde noted that some of the ECB’s rate-setters had backed a bigger rise of half a percentage point.

Eurozone inflation remains well above the ECB’s 2 per cent target after rising for the first time in six months to 7 per cent in April, up from 6.9 per cent in March.

Investors are pricing in a couple more quarter-point moves by the ECB to lift its deposit rate to 3.75 per cent — matching its highest-ever level in 2001.

This compares with current benchmark rates of above 5 per cent in the US, which also increased rates by 0.25 per cent this week, and 4.25 per cent in the UK.

Central banks on both sides of the Atlantic have dramatically raised rates since last year in response to a surge in inflation. But, with price pressures down from their peak and a credit crunch looming, many economists think the rate-tightening cycle is nearing its end.

In another move intended to increase borrowing costs, the ECB said it would buy fewer bonds to replace maturing securities as it seeks to shrink its balance sheet. The bank has built up huge bond holdings since 2015 and now intends to cut the stockpile by €25bn a month from July, compared with the current pace of €15bn.

Carsten Brzeski, an economist at Dutch bank ING, described the decision to shrink the balance sheet at a faster pace as “a bargaining chip” so that hawks on the governing council would accept a smaller rate rise.

But Krishna Guha, vice-chair of US investment bank Evercore, labelled the move as “unwise given the global banking stress”.

The euro weakened 0.4 per cent against the dollar to $1.101 while the yield on interest rate-sensitive two-year German bonds slipped 0.06 percentage points to 2.62 per cent.

Despite last month’s rise in the headline figure, core inflation — which strips out energy, food and other more volatile prices — dipped for the first time in 10 months to 5.6 per cent in April.

The ECB said that it would raise rates enough to hit its inflation target and keep them there “for as long as necessary”.

Rising interest rates have contributed to turmoil in the US banking sector, which continued this week with the seizure of First Republic by US regulators and the sale of the lender’s main assets to JPMorgan Chase.

While eurozone banks have so far been more resilient, they told the ECB in a survey published this week that credit conditions and loan demand tightened at the fastest pace since major financial crises more than a decade ago.

Lagarde said the decision to slow the pace of rate rises from half a point to a quarter-point reflected signs that credit conditions were tightening.

Economists believe such factors will cool inflation, making fewer rate increases necessary.

[senslev]

La subida de tipos es...transitory.

[Benzino Napaloni]

Los hipotecados están de enhorabuena. Lagarde ya no clava la tranca hasta el fondo sino solo la puntita.

Con el Euribor siguiendo la estela, y virtualmente ya en el 4%, no hace falta mucho más para hacer pedazos a más de un zombie financiero. Incluyendo a los "buy to rent".

[Derby]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/may/04/european-central-bank-raises-interest-rates-inflation-eurozone

European Central Bank chief suggests firms are engaging in ‘greedflation’

Comments by Christine Lagarde come after central bank raises interest rates for seventh time in succession

The president of the European Central Bank has suggested companies are taking advantage of high inflation when increasing prices, after the bank raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point to tackle the cost of living surge.

Christine Lagarde said wage pressures in the eurozone had strengthened, as workers try to recoup some of the purchasing power they have lost due to inflation, but she hinted some firms were engaging in so-called greedflation.

She said: “In some sectors, firms have been able to increase their profit margins on the back of mismatches between supply and demand, and the uncertainty created by high and volatile inflation.”(...)

[Derby]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-officials-assessing-possible-manipulation-banking-shares-source-2023-05-04/

U.S. officials assessing possible 'manipulation' on banking shares- source

May 4 (Reuters) - U.S. officials at the federal and state level are assessing the possibility of "market manipulation" behind big moves in banking share prices in recent days, a source familiar with the matter said on Thursday.

Shares of regional banks resumed their slide this week after the collapse of First Republic Bank, the third U.S. mid-sized lender to fail in two months. Short sellers raked in $378.9 million in paper profits on Thursday alone from betting against certain regional banks, according to analytics firm Ortex.

Increased short-selling activity and volatility in shares have drawn increasing scrutiny by federal and state officials and regulators in recent days, given strong fundamentals in the sector and sufficient capital levels, said the source, who was not authorized to speak publicly.

"State and federal regulators and officials are increasingly attentive to the possibility of market manipulation regarding banking equities," the source said.

PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O) shares slid 57% on Thursday, dragging down other regional lenders, after the Los Angeles-based bank said it was in talks about strategic options.

Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL.N) denied a report from the Financial Times that said it was exploring a potential sale, and said it was exploring legal options. The report had sent the lender's shares down as much as 61.5% before trading was halted.

Share price swings did not reflect the fact that many regional banks outperformed on first quarter earnings and had sound fundamentals, including stable deposits, sufficient capital, and decreased uninsured deposits, the source said.

"This week we have seen that regional banks remain well- capitalized," the source said.

Short selling, in which investors sell borrowed securities and aim to buy these back at a lower price to pocket the difference, is not illegal and considered part of a healthy market. But manipulating stock prices, which the SEC has defined as the 'intentional or willful conduct designed to deceive or defraud investors by controlling or artificially affecting" stock prices, is.

An official with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission told Reuters on Wednesday the agency was "not currently contemplating" a short-selling ban.

On Thursday the agency did not respond immediately to a Reuters request for comment.

But the source familiar with current events noted that the agency had warned in March, during a previous period of high market volatility surrounding the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, that it was carefully monitoring market stability and would prosecute any form of misconduct.

[Cadavre Exquis]

Shopify Lays Off 20% of Employees As It Embraces More Cost-Cutting
Posted by msmash on Thursday May 04, 2023 @01:20PM from the up-next dept.

Shopify said on Thursday it would lay off 20% of employees and would sell its logistics business to Flexport, as the e-commerce company pushes to cut costs further and refocus on its core business. From a report:

Shopify's first quarter revenue increased 25% from the same period last year to $1.5 billion, topping the company's own guidance for revenue growth in the high-teen percentages. Executives said on Thursday they expected revenue for the second quarter to grow at a similar rate to the first quarter. It reported free cash flow of $86 million, after burning cash in the year-earlier period, and projected free cash flow profitability for the rest of the year.

Saludos.

[puede ser]

Elenita:
https://www.elconfidencial.com/inmobiliario/residencial/2023-05-04/vivienda-precios-ventas-hipotecas-notarios_3622535/

las ventas caen un 12% y los precios un 2,6%
La vivienda mira a los ojos al primer cambio de ciclo tras el boom inmobiliario
El mercado residencial comienza a dar síntomas de agotamiento. Tras el empujón recibido tras la pandemia, tanto las ventas de casas como los precios de las mismas registran caídas

Fin de ciclo. El mercado residencial en España comienza a dar síntomas de agotamiento. Tras el empujón recibido tras la pandemia, tanto las ventas de casas como los precios de las mismas registran caídas.

En marzo de 2023, con respecto a marzo de 2022, la compraventa de viviendas disminuyó un 11,7%, mientras que la concesión de préstamos hipotecarios para la adquisición de vivienda retrocedió un 26,4%, y los precios lo hicieron en un 2,6%.

Así lo reflejan los datos del Consejo General del Notariado, aquellos que muestran las transacciones firmadas ante notario durante el pasado mes de marzo. Unos datos que podrían estar marcando, si se mantienen en el tiempo, el fin del ciclo alcista iniciado en el residencial en 2014. Un ciclo alcista de ocho años que parece haber llegado a su fin, tal y como llevan meses advirtiendo algunos expertos.

De hecho, en su último informe sobre el sector inmobiliario, Bankinter habla de una contracción de las ventas en torno al 20% en dos años y de una caída de precios del 5% en el mismo periodo, del 12% en términos reales, es decir, ajustado por la inflación. Un cambio de tendencia en el que juegan un papel determinante tres factores: la debilidad del mercado hipotecario (los notarios muestran fuertes caídas en la concesión de hipotecas), la menor tasa de ahorro de los hogares y la pérdida de atractivo de la inversión en vivienda para alquiler.

En concreto, en toda España se firmaron ante notario 63.661 compraventas, casi un 12% menos que durante el mismo mes de 2022, mientras que el precio medio del metro cuadrado se situó en los 1.580 euros, registrándose un descenso del 2,6%.

Por tipo de vivienda, las compraventas de pisos disminuyeron un 11,2%, alcanzando las 49.263 unidades, mientras que las unifamiliares se disminuyeron un 13,4% interanual, hasta llegar a las 14.397. Respecto a los precios, los pisos tuvieron un descenso del 2,6% con respecto al mismo mes del año anterior, hasta alcanzar los 1.746 euros el metro cuadrado, mientras que el precio de las viviendas tipo unifamiliar promedió los 1.276 €/m², registrando un descenso del 2,7%.
Las ventas solo suben en una CCAA

La compraventa de vivienda creció solamente en una comunidad autónoma, mientras que se redujo en las 16 restantes. Galicia (3,8%) registró la única evolución positiva, mientras que Murcia (-10,6%), Extremadura (-8,9%), Cantabria (-7,0%), Comunidad Valenciana (-6,1%), Aragón (-6,1%), Andalucía (-5,5%) y Castilla y León (-5,0%) registraron un desempeño mejor que la media nacional.

La caída por encima de la media nacional se registró en La Rioja (-38,7%), Navarra (-34,9%), Madrid (-22,9%), País Vasco (-22,7%), Canarias (17,3%), Asturias (-16,2%), Baleares (-16,1%), Castilla-La Mancha (-13,9%) y Cataluña (-12,5%).

Respecto a la evolución de los precios, en diez autonomías se registró un encarecimiento en el precio de la vivienda y en las siete restantes disminuyó. Por orden de magnitud se registraron subidas por encima del 5% en Canarias (9,5%), La Rioja (6,7%), Comunidad Valenciana (6,3%), Castilla y León (5,9%), Aragón (5,9%), Madrid (5,2%) y Murcia (5,2%). Inferiores al 5% pero aún positivos, fueron los aumentos en Galicia (4,7%), Cataluña (2,4%) y Andalucía (0,5%). En cambio, los precios de la vivienda registraron retrocesos en Cantabria (-7,7%), País Vasco (-6,2%), Baleares (-6,1%), Navarra (-1,5%), Castilla-La Mancha (-1,5%), Extremadura (-1,2%) y Asturias (-0,5%).

La cuantía promedio de estos préstamos también descendió, en este caso, un 4,4%, alcanzando los 146.870 euros en promedio, mientras que el porcentaje de compras de viviendas financiadas mediante un préstamo hipotecario se situó en el 42,7%. Es decir, casi el 60% de las compraventas se cierran sin necesidad de recurrir a financiación hipotecaria.

[Yupi_Punto]

President Lagarde presents the latest monetary policy decisions – 4 May 2023


https://m.soundcloud.com/europeancentralbank/president-lagarde-presents-the-latest-monetary-policy-decisions-4-may-2023

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/inmobiliario/mercado/2023/05/04/6452a074468aeb412c8b4620.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/inmobiliario/mercado/2023/05/03/64521ae9468aebca4e8b46a3.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://cincodias.elpais.com/opinion/2023-05-04/las-amenazas-contra-zuckerberg-y-los-pisos-que-no-convienen-a-nadie.html

https://cincodias.elpais.com/economia/2023-05-04/los-ayuntamientos-recaudaran-hasta-790-euros-con-el-ibi-de-cada-casa-vacia.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://cincodias.elpais.com/companias/2023-05-04/las-grandes-socimis-de-bme-growth-ven-lastrado-el-beneficio-por-la-perdida-de-valor-de-sus-activos.html

Saludos.