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Cita de: Manu Oquendo en Mayo 09, 2023, 11:18:37 amPaisajes urbanos o...Hoy viene en la Vanguardia una foto de un barrio de Barcelona plagado de okupas que a mi me recuerda la frontera con los ranchitos de Caracas, con los de a Rocinha de Río de Janeiro o con los barrios de aluvión del nordeste de Bogotá por no irnos al Palermo de BA.[/b]https://www.lavanguardia.com/local/barcelona/20230509/8953116/desafio-desokupa-ley-instituciones-okupas-bonanova-barcelona.htmlEstá a 5 minutos de donde vivo, al lado de la parroquia de la Bonanova (la Buena Nueva) y a dos pasos de La Salle-Bonanova. Precisamente ayer unos vecinos me comentaban que se rumorea que los desalojarán este jueves. Ya está preparado todo un dispositivo policial de Mossos d'Esquadra anticipando el enfrentamiento entre okupas y desokupas.https://www.20minutos.es/noticia/5126079/0/los-mossos-blindan-la-plaza-bonanova-de-barcelona-ante-la-prevision-de-incidentes-entre-desokupa-y-okupas-de-dos-fincas/
Paisajes urbanos o...Hoy viene en la Vanguardia una foto de un barrio de Barcelona plagado de okupas que a mi me recuerda la frontera con los ranchitos de Caracas, con los de a Rocinha de Río de Janeiro o con los barrios de aluvión del nordeste de Bogotá por no irnos al Palermo de BA.[/b]
Va a ser una carnicería. Y la sangre nos salpicará a todos.
Collectively, these results suggest that the effects of HtB largely depend on local supply conditions. We find that the scheme fails to trigger more construction activity, but instead causes house prices to increase inside the GLA, precisely the region that is most affected by the ‘affordability crisis’. This has distributional implications. The main beneficiaries of HtB in already unaffordable areas may be developers and landowners rather than struggling first-time buyers; while access to homeownership is improved in principle (credit constraints are relaxed), the present value of the financial burden associated with the purchase of a home further increases.
Help to Buy, heading for troubleFirst-time buyers borrowed too much for flats that were too expensive. Now they can no longer afford their homes. Why didn’t the government see it coming?Freddie Forsyth was very proud when he got the keys to his first home in 2018, aged just 25.However, the software developer, now 31, was only able to afford the £480,000 one-bedroom flat in Dalston, east London, through the government’s Help to Buy equity loan scheme.Forsyth saved £60,000, enough for a 13 per cent deposit, and took a 40 per cent equity loan from the government, which was the maximum available in London.“I was pleased to be fortunate enough to be able to own a flat and no longer have to rent,” he said.In 2018 the flat was perfect. Five years later and it has become a curse: a property market dip, soaring interest rates, and issues with wooden balconies in the block have dragged the flat’s value down to £425,000 — Forsyth now has less equity than he started with.“Without Help to Buy I would have had to move further out of London, which I really didn’t want to do at the time,” he said. “I know that the price only really goes down if you sell it, so hopefully by the time I move it will be back up.”Forsyth is one of thousands of property owners who used Help to Buy and are finding that it has not given them the foothold on the ladder they thought it would. Some are tens of thousands of pounds out of pocket and struggling with their level of debt.Many felt encouraged by developers and the government to stretch the amount they borrowed beyond normal levels at a time of record low interest rates to buy homes that would otherwise have been out of their reach. All this came just as house prices were hitting a peak.Now mortgage costs are soaring and house prices are falling. Last month the Bank of England put up its base rate for the 11th time since December 2021. From a historic low of 0.1 per cent it is now 4.25 per cent and widely expected to climb further. While this affects all households, it is worst for those who borrowed the most.A further problem for Help to Buy owners is that in many areas developers pushed up the value of new-builds about 20 per cent compared with similar homes, making them more susceptible to a drop in price.The peak sales period was 2016 to 2018. Many took on five-year fixed-rate mortgages and their repayments are now about to soar. They must also now start paying interest on the money that the government lent them.Christian Hilber from the London School of Economics said: “The timing of Help to Buy was such that rising interest rates were more than a distinct possibility when the five-year grace period for buyers would come to an end. It would appear that the government at the time was either completely myopic or gambled on an ever-prospering housing market and on interest rates staying low for the foreseeable future.“That gamble failed to pay off and the younger generation and those on moderate incomes are the main casualties.”Help to Buy was introduced in 2013 and closed to new applicants last October, but this week The Times reported that the government was considering resurrecting the scheme to boost support for the Conservative Party among younger voters.Boom for buildersA Facebook group for those with questions about what to do next is full of people whose property values have plunged. Others are worried about much higher repayments. They do not understand how the scheme that was supposed to be their saviour has pushed them into financial turmoil.Nick Morrey, an independent mortgage broker, said: “This is a perfect storm for those looking to secure a greater share of their property or 100 per cent ownership — higher rates, larger loans to buy out, and tougher affordability requirements.”When Help to Buy was launched the housing market was on its knees after the financial crisis. The Conservative-led coalition government needed to get banks to lend to those with small deposits. George Osborne, the chancellor, launched a scheme that would be the biggest housing policy since Margaret Thatcher’s Right to Buy scheme created a generation of homeowners.The government would, for the first time, directly lend to people struggling to get a mortgage, on homes worth up to £600,000 built by participating developers.Borrowers would have to put down at least a 5 per cent deposit but could then take a government loan, interest-free for five years, worth up to 20 per cent of the property’s price, or 40 per cent in London from 2016.The idea was that not only would they have a cheaper mortgage, but that as house prices rose they would build up equity and then pay off the loan.It was “a budget for people who aspire to own their own homes”, Osborne said. “A great deal for homebuyers . . . a great support for homebuilders.”And it proved hugely popular. By the end of September last year the government had lent £23.7 billion on 375,654 homes. Developers loved it too. In June 2019 the government spending watchdog the National Audit Office (NAO) found that Britain’s five largest housebuilders sold 50 per cent more homes under the scheme than they did before.As demand soared so did the price of new properties. Buyers stretched their incomes further and further. The NAO found that while first-time buyers who bought without Help to Buy typically borrowed 3.5 times their income, those who used it borrowed 4.5 times, and as much as six times their income in London. In the mortgage boom before the global financial crisis in 2007-08, the average home loan was 4 times income.The NAO urged the government to review the information given to buyers to ensure they fully understood the financial risks of buying a new property through the scheme. Homes England, the government body that funds new affordable property, said it had done this.The crunch, sceptics warned, would come when house prices started to fall and historically low interest rates came to an end.Falling valuesAlice Perry and her partner, Lewis, bought a three-bedroom house in Wigston, Leicestershire, in March 2019 for £286,995, with a £57,399 Help to Buy loan. The couple, who now have a one-year-old son, pay £626 a month for their mortgage and hoped to pay off their government loan before interest starts accruing next year. With interest rates rising sharply, that looks a remote possibility.Perry, who works for a youth charity, said: “It’s just been bad timing. We’re not deluded about Help to Buy. We couldn’t have bought without it. Individually none of these things — mortgage rates, Help to Buy and a cost of living crisis — is a problem. It’s all of them together.”The average five-year fixed mortgage rate is up from 1.59 per cent in December 2021 to 4.27 per cent in February.Nationwide Building Society said that house prices fell 2.7 per cent in the year to April, and dropped for each of the seven months to March. The Office for Budget Responsibility has predicted falls of 10 per cent over the next 18 months.Analysis of more than 101,000 Help to Buy loans repaid to March 2022 found that 12,434 — or one in eight — of those properties had lost value. The data from Homes England was obtained under a freedom of information request.About a hundred of these fell by more than 50 per cent — probably due to cladding problems, which particularly affect newer homes. One property bought for £297,500 with a 40 per cent Help to Buy loan was eventually valued at £67,735 — a 77 per cent price fall.The estate agency Hamptons said that 68 per cent of Help to Buy loans used to buy London properties since 2016 were repaid when the homes were worth less.For one property developer the turmoil is an opportunity. Kundan Bhaduri from the Kushman Group bought three Help to Buy properties in the first three months of this year from people who borrowed too much and cannot afford to stay in their homes — and plans to buy more.They will either be turned in to buy-to-lets or holiday lets. Bhaduri said: “We have been approached by a number of people who bought their homes on the Help to Buy scheme over the last few years and are now struggling to keep up with the payments.”The Home Builders Federation, a trade association, said: “Help to Buy has been the most successful government home ownership intervention in history, delivering on all its objectives. It has helped more than a third of a million first-time buyers get an energy-efficient new-build home, supported a doubling in housing supply and contributed to the creation of hundreds of thousands of new jobs.”The Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities said: “Independent analysis, including from the NAO, has found no evidence that Help to Buy has had a significant impact on house prices. Most customers see their home increase in value over the duration of their loan and, where this isn’t the case, the government shares in the downside of market fluctuations, meaning owners pay back less than they borrowed.”
Lo de los avales públicos para las hipotecas es sencillamente aberrante. El riesgo que no le dejamos asumir a los bancos, porque es peligroso para la estabilidad financiera e igual hay que rescatarlos luego, se le transfiere al estado y listo. ¿Cómo no se nos ha ocurrido antes?Ahora bien, las instituciones europeas todavía tienen sus armas, el tipo de interés y las reglas de estabilidad presupuestaria. Como esos avales computen como deuda pública...¿Volverá la prima de riesgo a abrir los telediarios?Enviado desde mi Aquaris X mediante Tapatalk
Property Crunch Lays Low SBB, One of Europe’s Most Indebted Landlords
Property Crunch Lays Low SBB, One of Europe's Most Indebted LandlordsShares in heavily indebted Swedish landlord SBB continued a multi-day spiral Tuesday, dropping after the company said late Monday it would postpone payment of its dividend in a bid to preserve cash.The rocky reception followed a Monday downgrade of the company’s bonds by S&P Global Ratings to junk. The downgrade is slated to further increase the Stockholm-based property owner’s interest payments and may make it harder to refinance its high debt load coming due in the next two years.SBB, one of the most-owned stocks in Sweden, has become a high-profile casualty of rising interest rates, as falling values have halted a debt-fueled expansion spree. Its market capitalization has dropped from over $17 billion in late 2021 to less than $1.5 billion, a giant comedown for its more than 260,000 shareholders.Shares have fallen 14 out of the last 15 trading days. In recent trading Tuesday, the stock stood about 14% lower at 7.20 Swedish krona a share.The dividend paid by SBB—officially known as Samhällsbyggnadsbolaget i Norden—has been a focal point for investors. Despite a broad strategy to raise cash by selling assets, SBB announced earlier this year it would increase the dividend to 1.4 Swedish krona per share per year—a move analysts at Nordea called “unsustainable.”SBB said late Monday it would also scrap a planned share offering that was intended to raise over $250 million amid its falling stock price.Postponing the dividend will weigh on the personal finances of SBB’s CEO, Ilija Batljan, who raised bonds tied to his shares of SBB and other companies. His holding company Ilija Batljan Holdings said in its annual report that the dividends it received were “very important” for its “long-term endurance and value creation.”On Thursday, Scope Ratings downgraded two classes of those bonds to below investment grade. Among other factors, Scope cited "a slump in the share price of its core holding SBB."
Fed's Jefferson says economy slowing in "orderly" mannerWASHINGTON, May 9 (Reuters) - The U.S. economy is slowing in an "orderly fashion" that should allow inflation to decline even as growth continues, Fed Governor Philip Jefferson said on Tuesday."The economy has started to slow in an orderly fashion...I am of the view that inflation will start to come down and the economy will have the opportunity to continue to expand," Jefferson said in comments to the Atlanta Black Chambers business group.Jefferson did not comment on his current view of Fed interest rate policy, with the federal funds rate currently set in a range, between 5% and 5.25%, that many of his colleagues have said should be adequate to return inflation to the Fed's 2% target. It is currently more than twice that.But his remarks did indicate hope for a "soft landing" in which inflation cools without a dramatic drop in economic activity.Jefferson said that the recent tightening of credit standards by banks, reflected in a Fed survey released on Monday, was "typical" for where the U.S. is in the economic cycle and a "natural part" of the Fed's monetary tightening.
@financialjuice FED'S WILLIAMS: THE FED HAS NOT SAID THAT ITS DONE RAISING RATES.
El Gobierno se fijará en el modelo catalán para rematar el índice de control de alquileres de la ley de viviendaCon la ley de vivienda recién aprobada por el Congreso y a puntito de pasar por el Senado, el Gobierno trabaja en tener listo cuanto antes el índice de precios que permitirá aplicar el control de alquileres a aquellas comunidades que lo soliciten."Vamos a intentar terminar con este proceso lo más rápidamente posible para que esté listo con los precios de mercado", confirman fuentes del Ministerio de Movilidad, Transportes y Agenda Urbana.El Gobierno confía en ajustar los últimos detalles en los próximos meses de cara a garantizar un índice actualizado y fiable este mismo año. Para ello, se fijará en el modelo catalán. "Vamos a mejorar el índice actual para actualizarlo. En la ley se ha establecido que aprovecharemos aquello que esté bien hecho desde el punto de vista jurídico. Los índices que pudieran existir en otros territorios como el catalán nos pueden servir para establecer un mecanismo de homogeneización con el índice estatal", señalan las mismas fuentes.Lo cierto es que el índice ya está (casi, casi) listo. La base será el propio índice creado por este ministerio hace unos años, cuando todavía era titular el exministro José Luis Ábalos. A principios de 2020, Ábalos anunció la publicación del primer índice oficial de precios de alquiler (hasta entonces, no había estadísticas públicas al respecto). La idea es aprovechar esa información, complementarla con la de algunas comunidades y establecer una homologación para poder utilizarla en el índice estatal.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/property-crunch-lays-low-sbb-one-of-europes-most-indebted-landlords-eb7a71cbCitarProperty Crunch Lays Low SBB, One of Europe’s Most Indebted Landlordshttps://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-jones-05-09-2023/card/property-crunch-lays-low-sbb-one-of-europe-s-most-indebted-landlords-JLHNnXvbUrIm8apAPGfgCitarProperty Crunch Lays Low SBB, One of Europe's Most Indebted LandlordsShares in heavily indebted Swedish landlord SBB continued a multi-day spiral Tuesday, dropping after the company said late Monday it would postpone payment of its dividend in a bid to preserve cash.The rocky reception followed a Monday downgrade of the company’s bonds by S&P Global Ratings to junk. The downgrade is slated to further increase the Stockholm-based property owner’s interest payments and may make it harder to refinance its high debt load coming due in the next two years.SBB, one of the most-owned stocks in Sweden, has become a high-profile casualty of rising interest rates, as falling values have halted a debt-fueled expansion spree. Its market capitalization has dropped from over $17 billion in late 2021 to less than $1.5 billion, a giant comedown for its more than 260,000 shareholders.Shares have fallen 14 out of the last 15 trading days. In recent trading Tuesday, the stock stood about 14% lower at 7.20 Swedish krona a share.The dividend paid by SBB—officially known as Samhällsbyggnadsbolaget i Norden—has been a focal point for investors. Despite a broad strategy to raise cash by selling assets, SBB announced earlier this year it would increase the dividend to 1.4 Swedish krona per share per year—a move analysts at Nordea called “unsustainable.”SBB said late Monday it would also scrap a planned share offering that was intended to raise over $250 million amid its falling stock price.Postponing the dividend will weigh on the personal finances of SBB’s CEO, Ilija Batljan, who raised bonds tied to his shares of SBB and other companies. His holding company Ilija Batljan Holdings said in its annual report that the dividends it received were “very important” for its “long-term endurance and value creation.”On Thursday, Scope Ratings downgraded two classes of those bonds to below investment grade. Among other factors, Scope cited "a slump in the share price of its core holding SBB."
LinkedIn Will Cut Over 700 Jobs Worldwide and Shut Its China AppPosted by msmash on Tuesday May 09, 2023 @12:45PM from the tremulous-times dept.LinkedIn, the networking platform used by millions of employees and companies, said on Monday it will pare down its operations in China, capping a multiyear pullback that exemplified the challenges of running a foreign business in China. From a report:CitarThe company, owned by Microsoft, said it will lay off 716 employees worldwide, including teams dedicated to engineering and marketing in China, because of slumping demand. It did not say how many of those layoffs will be in China. LinkedIn will also shut its China job posting app, a bare-bones version of its international service, by August. Users of the app, called InCareer, could only search for jobs and not post or share articles the way they can on LinkedIn.When LinkedIn started a Chinese-language version of its website in 2014, it charted a path that its peers, including Facebook and Google, had shied away from. It partnered with local firms and began censoring the content of millions of Chinese customers in accordance with Beijing's strict laws. Several U.S. journalists and activists said their profiles had been blocked because of "prohibited content." The company said at the time that while it opposed government censorship, its absence in the country could deprive Chinese professionals of the chance to make professional connections.
The company, owned by Microsoft, said it will lay off 716 employees worldwide, including teams dedicated to engineering and marketing in China, because of slumping demand. It did not say how many of those layoffs will be in China. LinkedIn will also shut its China job posting app, a bare-bones version of its international service, by August. Users of the app, called InCareer, could only search for jobs and not post or share articles the way they can on LinkedIn.When LinkedIn started a Chinese-language version of its website in 2014, it charted a path that its peers, including Facebook and Google, had shied away from. It partnered with local firms and began censoring the content of millions of Chinese customers in accordance with Beijing's strict laws. Several U.S. journalists and activists said their profiles had been blocked because of "prohibited content." The company said at the time that while it opposed government censorship, its absence in the country could deprive Chinese professionals of the chance to make professional connections.