Re: Tema: PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Primavera 2023

[AbiertoPorDemolicion]

Saludos.

A ver, ¿en qué quedamos?

El 54% de los "expertos" creen que vamos a una recesión, pero el 83% de los "expertos" confían en que las bolsas lleguen a máximos anuales.

¿Los bancos de la crisis bancaria tambien van a llegar a máximos anuales? ¿O va a subir toda la bolsa, menos los bancos que han sido muy malos?

¿Los "expertos" del 54% son los mismos que los del 83%? Me parto con los "expertos". Si es que esos "expertos" existen realmente, y no es todo una inmensa mentira.

Y después de decir que los "expertos" creen que vamos a una recesión, se descuelgan con que El Pisito en máximos históricos; la hostelería (la cañita y la tapita y el consumo superfluo) como un tiro; no hay gente para trabajar de lo bien que va todo; los precios y el consumo para arriba; todos a invertir en letritas del tesoro y en bolsa que no para de subir; y a pedir la paguita al cacique de turno, el paquete de ayudas al estado, y los Next Generation a la UE, que hay dinero para todos.

Vaya forma de dejar a los "expertos" del 54% como el culo. Podrían tener el detalle de publicar el panel de "expertos" para que nos den la oportunidad de descojonarnos de ellos. Aunque la dignidad de estos "expertos" debe de estar por los suelos, si es que realmente existen y no es todo una pura invención de la prensa.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://elpais.com/opinion/2023-03-26/el-drama-de-la-vivienda.html

https://elpais.com/economia/2023-03-26/todas-las-crisis-de-la-vivienda-en-un-vecindario.html

https://elpais.com/economia/2023-03-26/el-complicado-despegue-de-la-vivienda-protegida-en-alquiler.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://elpais.com/economia/negocios/2023-03-25/caseros-tramposos-asi-son-sus-argucias-para-librarse-del-inquilino-y-subir-el-precio-del-alquiler-de-sus-casas.html

Saludos.

[Marv]

Como estas ya nos las sabemos, tenemos claro lo que viene: Stajanov

Que la culpa no la tienen las inversiones multimillonarias estúpidas, basadas en un FOMO idiota causado por un hype absurdo no correctamente identificado.

La culpa es de los curritos, ¡que no curran!

- Mike, nos hemos gastado bilions en el Metabullshit, que es una tontada como un castillo, y la gente ha pasado como de la shit.
- OK, despidamos a 10K, y los que tengan los huevazos de quedarse, que se preparen. Esos gandules están en la vidorra padre y nos han hundido.
- Pero Mike, lo estábamos haciendo bien antes de gastarnos 32 bilions dolars en el Metabullshit... sólo el año pasado. Y además te compraste ese mojón de startup que luego no tenían hecho ni la mitad de lo que nos contaron... Nos la colaron, Mike.
- ¡¡He dicho que a la oficina todo el mundo!! Y consulta con legal, ¿podemos instalarles algún tipo de stajanoware para contabilizar cuánto mueven el ratón por hora?


En fins... ¿Hace falta el spoiler o ni eso?

[pollo]

Como estas ya nos las sabemos, tenemos claro lo que viene: Stajanov

Que la culpa no la tienen las inversiones multimillonarias estúpidas, basadas en un FOMO idiota causado por un hype absurdo no correctamente identificado.

La culpa es de los curritos, ¡que no curran!

- Mike, nos hemos gastado bilions en el Metabullshit, que es una tontada como un castillo, y la gente ha pasado como de la shit.
- OK, despidamos a 10K, y los que tengan los huevazos de quedarse, que se preparen. Esos gandules están en la vidorra padre y nos han hundido.
- Pero Mike, lo estábamos haciendo bien antes de gastarnos 32 bilions dolars en el Metabullshit... sólo el año pasado. Y además te compraste ese mojón de startup que luego no tenían hecho ni la mitad de lo que nos contaron... Nos la colaron, Mike.
- ¡¡He dicho que a la oficina todo el mundo!! Y consulta con legal, ¿podemos instalarles algún tipo de stajanoware para contabilizar cuánto mueven el ratón por hora?


En fins... ¿Hace falta el spoiler o ni eso?

Y al final Metabullshit va a seguir siendo igual de bullshit, por mucho presupuesto de marketing que le metan. Y parece que por fin ha llegado el momento de darse  cuenta de que el Emperador va en pelota picada.
Y apuesto que con la IA que ahora tanto lo está aparentemente petando, tres cuartos de lo mismo.
No sólo porque no va a ser tan útil como nos están vendiendo (sin negar que tenga casos de uso) sino porque no me parece que sea algo que vaya a ser tan exclusivo como pretenden ciertas compañías.

En dos días, todo el mundo y su perro va a tener modelos de estos. Y en tres nos daremos cuenta de que no son para tanto (léase vamos a poder prescindir de los trabajadores humanos que tanto cobran).

[Cadavre Exquis]

Y al final Metabullshit va a seguir siendo igual de bullshit, por mucho presupuesto de marketing que le metan. Y parece que por fin ha llegado el momento de darse  cuenta de que el Emperador va en pelota picada.

Sí, pero... "Suben los hactivos, y los mercaos" (visillófilas pisitófilas & R.G.C.I.M.  dixit).

Wall St Week Ahead Strength in megacap stocks masks broader U.S. market woes

March 24, 2023 | By Lewis Krauskopf

The Wall Street entrance to the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) is seen in New York City, U.S., November 15, 2022. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo

NEW YORK, March 24 (Reuters) - Investors are relying on an old strategy to navigate the current tumult in asset prices: buying shares of the massive U.S. companies that led markets higher for years.

Shares of the top five companies by market value -- Apple (AAPL.O), Microsoft (MSFT.O), Alphabet (GOOGL.O), Amazon (AMZN.O) and Nvidia (NVDA.O) -- have gained between 4.5% and 12% since March 8, when troubles at Silicon Valley Bank set off banking system worries. In that period, the S&P 500 has fallen 0.5%.

Megagaps are attracting bets because of strong balance sheets, robust profit margins and business models expected to hold up better if recession hits, investors said. A recent pullback in U.S. bond yields, whose ascent punished growth stocks last year, is also buoying their prices in 2023.

But their strength could have drawbacks. Megacaps' growing market capitalization means indexes such as the S&P 500 are increasingly driven by a smaller cluster of stocks. That could spur volatility in broader markets if circumstances change and investors make a quick exit from big tech and growth names.

"The view from investors is that technology companies are in a better place to get through an uncertain period of time,” said Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services, which is overweight the tech sector. However, “when you have crowding you could see a sharp reversal out of nowhere because everyone is in the same area.”

Strength in megacaps also cloaks weakness elsewhere. Measures of market breadth have turned more negative, while the equal-weighted S&P 500 (.SPXEW), a proxy for the average stock in the benchmark index, is down over 5% since March.

Investors are bracing for more banking sector volatility next week, after sharp declines in shares of European giants Deutsche Bank and UBS on Friday followed the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank earlier this month. Upcoming U.S. data on consumer confidence and inflation could also sway markets.

Reuters Graphics

Megacaps led the U.S. market in the decade following the financial crisis and spearheaded Wall Street's blistering rebound after the selloff in early 2020 fueled by the coronavirus pandemic. But they tumbled last year, as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to fight 40-year high inflation.

Their rebound this year accelerated as concerns over the banking system spiked, and the combined weight of Apple and Microsoft in the S&P 500 recently topped 13%. That was the highest in over 30 years for any top two stocks in the index, according to Todd Sohn, technical strategist at Strategas.

The weight of the top five S&P 500 companies has rebounded to 21.7% from 18.8% for the top five stocks at the end of 2022.

Megacap stocks' weight in S&P 500

As megacaps have rallied, some indicators of breadth, which technical analysts view as gauges of broad market health, have darkened recently.

The number of new 52-week lows on the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq was on pace to eclipse new highs for three straight weeks, a reversal after new highs had topped new lows almost every week to start 2023, according to Willie Delwiche, investment strategist at Hi Mount Research.

Further, the percentage of industry groups tracked by Delwiche above their 10-week moving averages has plummeted from 87% in early February to 7% in the latest week.

“After some hopeful signs earlier this year, it’s evidence that the pattern of weakness beneath the surface that we saw last year is re-emerging,” Delwiche said. “We need to see better participation if the indexes are going to be able to sustain the next leg higher.”

The performance of megacaps could suffer if banking worries ease and investors scoop up economically sensitive stocks that have struggled. The S&P 500 energy sector (.SPNY) is down 7.5% since March 8, while the industrials sector (.SPLRCI) is off 5%.

A rebound in U.S. bond yields could pressure tech and growth stocks. Earnings growth in the tech sector, meanwhile, is expected to trail the overall S&P 500 in 2023.

Nevertheless, some investors are bullish on megacap stocks.

Despite last year's market swoon, "our bias has been that we think we are still in ... an up trend," said Thomas Martin, senior portfolio manager at GLOBALT Investments, who is overweight many megacaps.

In turn, he said, that likely means "the big-cap growth stocks will be the ones who lead from here."

Saludos.

[Benzino Napaloni]

En dos días, todo el mundo y su perro va a tener modelos de estos. Y en tres nos daremos cuenta de que no son para tanto (léase vamos a poder prescindir de los trabajadores humanos que tanto cobran).

Y no sería la primera vez. La consola Wii, que ya tiene sus años, se ganó el mote de "el virus". Porque se propagó como una epidemia, y una vez pasada la novedad, a criar polvo o al cajón.

La raíz de esto -al menos una de ellas- ya la habíamos comentado por aquí alguna que otra vez. En estas industrias tan especializadas ya no se da la situación de la fábrica al uso. Donde el obrero podía ser analfabeto o como mucho tener el graduado escolar, y donde cada jefe y encargado sabía todo sobre el trabajo de sus subordinados.

Esa pirámide hace mucho tiempo que se fue a hacer puñetas, y más en las tecnológicas. No se imaginan ustedes las complejidades y las filigranas que hay que hacer para sacar adelante proyectos aparentemente sencillos. No digamos ya los complicados.

¿Que los jefes quieren que el currito vuelva a la oficina porque así se rinde más? Me resulta menos ofensivo que me señalen una vaca volando. Los que dicen eso simplemente no tienen ni puñetera idea de en qué consiste el trabajo de sus subordinados. Y si no los ven, no saben si están dando el callo, o -lo que temen- se estén rascando la barriga porque su trabajo se hace fácil y rápido. De aquí viene también la tentación de reducir puestos de trabajo.

El jefe que sabe de qué va el cotarro y que viene de las trincheras no está por estas tonterías. Sabe lo que se tarda en hacer las cosas, y no necesita microgestión. Se planifica un sprint, se acuerda lo que se va a hacer y en cuanto tiempo, si surgen problemas sobre la marcha se avisa al momento, y si el día de la entrega has cumplido, como si estás trabajando desde una playa de Lanzarote.


Vuelta a la oficina, despidos, IA, inversiones que son humo... Es todo la misma mierda derivada de los 80 tras la crisis del petróleo. Lo que estas sanguijuelas necesitan es que los curritos les planten y no tengan suficiente plantilla para sacar el trabajo adelante. Ojito, que poco a poco se van viendo ya casos así.

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/a74f05d7-3894-4ca6-88ae-cdedfa8172df

IMF’s Georgieva warns of increased risks to financial stability

Fund head warns uncertainties in the world economy remain “exceptionally high”

IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva has warned of increased risks to financial stability and the need for vigilance following the recent banking sector turmoil in advanced economies.

Speaking at a conference in Beijing, the IMF head said uncertainties in the world economy remained “exceptionally high”, with global economic growth expected to slow below 3 per cent this year because of the Ukraine war, “scarring” from the Covid-19 pandemic and monetary tightening.

“Risks to financial stability have increased at a time of higher debt levels,” Georgieva told the annual China Development Forum, a gathering for global chief executives and senior Chinese policymakers.

“The rapid transition from a prolonged period of low interest rates to much higher rates necessary to fight inflation inevitably generates stresses and vulnerabilities, as we have seen in recent developments in the banking sector.”

The global financial sector was shaken by the collapse of this month of a midsized US lender, Silicon Valley Bank, which led to the fall of another American institution and the takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS.

Bank shares declined again on Friday, this time led by Deutsche Bank, forcing German chancellor Olaf Scholz to insist there was “no reason to be concerned” about the institution.

“We also have seen policymakers acting decisively in response to financial stability risks and we have seen advanced economy central banks enhancing the provision of US dollar liquidity,” Georgieva said. “These actions have eased market stresses to some extent but uncertainty is high and that underscores the need for vigilance.”

The IMF in January estimated global growth would slow from an estimated 3.4 per cent last year to 2.9 per cent in 2023, then rise to 3.1 per cent in 2024. “Even with a better outlook for 2024, global growth will remain below last decade’s average of 3.8 per cent,” Georgieva told the forum.

She also echoed the warnings voiced by several other speakers at the conference about the dangers of the world fragmenting into economic blocs, saying this would be “a dangerous division that will leave everyone poorer and less secure”. 

The most positive development in the world economy this year was the expected strong economic rebound in China after it relaxed its strict Covid controls at the end of 2022, she said. The IMF forecasts growth of 5.2 per cent in China in 2023 compared with 3 per cent a year earlier.

China’s growth would account for about one-third of global growth this year, she said. “A 1 percentage point increase in GDP growth in China leads to 0.3 percentage growth in other Asian economies,” she said.

Several global business chiefs have also attended the conference in Beijing despite rising trade and geopolitical tensions between the US and China.

Among other speakers, Tharman Shanmugaratnam, the chair of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, the city state’s de facto central bank, said the recent macroeconomic challenges were only the “early consequences” of instability caused by a long period of low and negative real interest rates in advanced economies.

He described this extended period of easy monetary policy as the “largest mistake in macroeconomic policy in 70 years” and called for co-operation between the US and China as well as competition.

“How the US and China are able to combine competition . . . economic competition, with the need for co-operation is going to require considerable strategic ambition and strategic skill,” Shanmugaratnam said.

China’s finance minister Liu Kun said the world situation was challenging, with “unprecedented changes unfolding”, including more political tension, without elaborating. This year, China would moderately increase fiscal spending to support the economy, he said.

[Derby]

https://www.economist.com/business/2023/03/06/dont-fear-an-ai-induced-jobs-apocalypse-just-yet

Don’t fear an AI-induced jobs apocalypse just yet

The West suffers from too little automation, not too much

(...) Some businesses are tentatively beginning to embrace generative ai, too. However, as with robots and process automation, bedding in the new technology will not happen overnight. Allen & Overy, a law firm that in February launched a virtual legal assistant with Chatgpt-like powers, requires its lawyers to cross-check everything the bot spits out. cnet, a tech-news site, starting in November quietly published 73 articles written by a bot, first to the consternation and then the delight of journalists, after the articles were found to be riddled with errors.

The ai technology that underpins chatbots could one day be a boon for automation, reckons Mr Lamanna. But getting from science fiction to science fact is one thing. Getting from there to economic fact is quite another.

[Derby]

https://www.theguardian.com/food/2023/mar/26/uk-honey-fails-authenticity-test

All UK honey tested in EU fraud investigation fails authenticity test

Ten samples from Britain were suspected of containing cheap sugar syrup

Adulteration of honey with cheap sugar syrup has been exposed in a new investigation by the European Commission, which found 46% of sampled products were suspected to be fraudulent. Ten honey samples from the UK all failed the tests. They may have been blended or packaged in Britain, but the honey probably originated overseas.

This is not the first time tests have suggested that UK shoppers may be being cheated on their honey, though supermarkets say they regularly test honey and audit supply lines.

The government said this weekend that it was investigating the results, but there was no risk to food safety. Officials say no single test can establish honey’s authenticity and research is continuing.(...)

[wanderer]

https://www.theguardian.com/food/2023/mar/26/uk-honey-fails-authenticity-test

All UK honey tested in EU fraud investigation fails authenticity test

Ten samples from Britain were suspected of containing cheap sugar syrup

Adulteration of honey with cheap sugar syrup has been exposed in a new investigation by the European Commission, which found 46% of sampled products were suspected to be fraudulent. Ten honey samples from the UK all failed the tests. They may have been blended or packaged in Britain, but the honey probably originated overseas.

This is not the first time tests have suggested that UK shoppers may be being cheated on their honey, though supermarkets say they regularly test honey and audit supply lines.

The government said this weekend that it was investigating the results, but there was no risk to food safety. Officials say no single test can establish honey’s authenticity and research is continuing.(...)

Eso debe ser honeymoon... (pero no por estar de recién casados/enamorados, sino de estar en la Luna).... 

[senslev]

Antonella Broglia rehabilitó una antigua fontanería de barrio en el centro de Madrid y la convirtió en la ‘vivienda mínima’ de sus sueños

18m2 y vivienda de sus sueños. Pero que hdlgp.

https://cadenaser.com/nacional/2023/03/25/vivir-en-18-m-y-que-te-sobre-espacio-cadena-ser/

[JENOFONTE10]

[(A JENOFONTE10) No cabe duda de que la más antisistema de las sobrevaloraciones popularcapitalistas es la inmobiliaria de la vivienda porque es la más destructiva del patrón Producción-Renta-Gasto y de su superestructura ideológica.

La sobrevaloración de la vivienda es una estafa intergeneracional que desequilibra la familia particularmente en favor de las madres, convirtiéndolas en madrastras. Son Saturno y, sobre todo, Saturnina devorando más a sus hijos que a sus hijas.
[...]
La burbuja popularcapitalista nos ha hecho ver que hay filicidios feministizantes perpetrados por madrastras aproductivas; y que apegarse a estos juegos intergeneracionales de dinero-sin-trabajar no solo es ir contra los Mandamientos Séptimo, Octavo y Décimo, sino también contra el Cuarto.]

Muchas gracias por su respuesta.

El post que se comenta es del hilo de invierno, ya bloqueado.

Pretendía ilustrar el 'enfrentamiento generacional' 'consustancial en el caso del timo inmobiliario', ya mencionado por Asustadísimos, con un caso antiguo -2000 años aprox.- recogido por Marcos 7, 9-13, donde Jesucristo critica a los que se escaquean de 'honrar padre y madre' (cuarto de la ley mosaica, pero ¡ojo!, primero de los siete referidos al 'prójimo como a ti mismo') con el subterfugio de dedicar su dinero al 'Korbán', la ofrenda a Dios en el templo ('misericordia quiero no sacrificios'). Por cierto, en el mismo templo de Jerusalén del que no quedaría 'piedra sobre piedra' desde el año 70 (destrucción de Tito).

Me pareció inoportuno extenderme con un 'aterrizado' a la situación actual.
Ahora, aún en Cuaresma, la primavera ha venido y hemos cambiado la hora.
Añado como ejemplos de 'inmoenfrentamiento generacional' que tocan el cuarto ('honrarás a tu padre y a tu madre') y el décimo ('no codiciarás la casa del prójimo') los numerosos casos de padres y madres ancianos ingresados en residencias geriátricas, donde han fallecido durante la pandemia, dejando codiciados pisos libres, heredables ('haber heredao') o vendibles.

Saludos.

[Derby]

https://techcrunch.com/2023/03/26/tech-company-layoffs-2023-morale/

The layoffs will continue until (investor) morale improves

Since the start of 2023, more than 150,000 people have been laid off at tech companies, large and small. That’s a staggering number of people who have been put out of work.

When you think about how Meta, Amazon and Salesforce have handled these layoffs, the situation becomes even more grim.

Salesforce announced in January that it was laying off 10% of its approximately 80,000 employee workforce. Since then, it has been letting people go in dribs and drabs. Amazon also announced in January that it was laying off 18,000 employees, then announced another 9,000 this week. Meta laid off 11,000 in November and let another 10,000 people go in a second round this week. In addition, the company shut down another 5,000 open recs.

This, some would say, cruel, rolling approach to layoffs leaves employees anxious and uncertain about their own positions, while grieving about the loss of valued colleagues who have been let go.

Investors, on the other hand, seem to like layoffs as a way to move companies toward greater operating efficiency. CEOs typically are less concerned about the well being of their employees as they are in keeping investors happy.

An argument could be made, of course, that these companies overhired during the recent tech boom, and now it’s time to right size to better fit a changing market. That argument would carry more weight if the companies in question weren’t profitable. However, large American tech companies are very often both profitable and incredibly wealthy, even if their market cap has fallen from record highs.

While there is some truth to the idea that companies grew too quickly in recent years and need to reset, layoffs feel like the worst kind of short-term thinking: sacrificing employees to please investors. Are companies at least getting what they want from investors out of this devil’s bargain?

Investor response

If companies are looking to impress investors with their cost-cutting measures, we can rate how effective their layoffs are by how investors have reacted to them.

[Derby]

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2023/03/26/ecb-warns-that-shadow-banking-could-trigger-next-financial-crisis/

Shadow banking could trigger next financial crisis, ECB warns

The shadow banking sector is the “soft spot in the financial system” and could trigger the next financial crisis, the vice-president of the European Central Bank (ECB) has warned, according to a report in the Business Post.

In the aftermath of the rescue of Credit Suisse last week, Luis de Guindos said that he believed the European banking sector was “sound and resilient”, but the nonbank sector “could be a source of problems for the whole financial system”.

The nonbank sector involves firms which are engaged in bank-like activities but are neither registered nor regulated as banks. These include the likes of funds, insurance firms, venture capitalists and currency exchanges. It is also commonly known as the “shadow banking” or “market-based finance” sector.

De Guindos warned that firms in this sector had taken “a lot of risks” during the period of low interest rates which could now be exposed by rate rises, and could affect the wider financial system.

https://www.businesspost.ie/news/ecb-warns-that-shadow-banking-could-trigger-next-financial-crisis/