Re: Tema: PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Primavera 2023

[asustadísimos]

[Aviso de nueva reedición del comentario:
https://www.transicionestructural.net/index.php?topic=2589.msg213958#msg213958
Hemos introducido una nota previa para precisar el concepto de leyenda rosa inmobiliaria y hemos retocado la redacción.
Entendemos que se trata de un comentario especialmente importante.]

[Para seguir con el festejo:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hjq9fPtCDkI
Un servidor tiene un autógrafo de Krystian Zimerman, con quien coincidió en una fiesta. Por cierto, este polaco nació el primer año en el que, según nuestro cómputo, empiezan a nacer los primeros perdedores de las burbujas popularcapitalistas.]

[Derby]

Para distender el ambiente un poco...

https://economiccollapsenews.com/2023/04/24/report-zimbabwe-to-introduce-a-gold-backed-digital-currency-for-legal-tender/

Report: Zimbabwe to introduce a gold-backed digital currency for legal tender

Will Zimbabwe make money great again?

It would be ironic after years of having the most devalued currency on the planet.

But now it is being reported that Zimbabwe is poised to launch a gold-backed digital currency.

These types of reports have popped up from time to time over the years, but here is what a local media outfit is reporting:

“THE Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) is set to introduce a gold-backed digital currency to be used as legal tender for transacting in the country as part of interventions to stabilise the local currency.

Introduction of the digital gold tokens, a form of electronic money backed by gold held at the RBZ, will represent the first steps by the central bank towards using the country’s gold reserves to anchor the Zimbabwe dollar.

Monetary authorities envisage the digital gold tokens will allow those holding small amounts of Zimbabwe dollars to exchange their money for tokens in order to store value and hedge against exchange rate volatility.”

[newclo]

Buenas tardes Cyberfamilia


He encontrado un filón, por si a alguien le interesa:

https://twitter.com/IkerRealEstate?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Iker Real Estate
@IkerRealEstate
Compro inmuebles, hipoteco y los pongo en alquiler : Objetivo No Vender // Tribu #inmobiliario

Me gusta invertir en inmuebles porque no hay que ser demasiado listo para ganar mucho dinero

Las consecuencias de la nueva 'Ley de Vivienda' en el mercado inmobiliario.

Spoiler:  NO van a bajar los precios.

Y aquí esas consecuencias explicaitas :
https://twitter.com/IkerRealEstate/status/1650552303282270235

Mayor dificultad para familias con niños pequeños, jóvenes, inmigrantes y cualquiera que no tenga años de contrato indefinido para alquilar una vivienda.

"Abstenerse 'vulnerables' o con riesgo de serlo"

Las CCAA que declaren zonas tensionadas recibirán menor inversion inmobiliaria reduciendo impuestos y calidad del parque de viviendas

Los inquilinos pagarán servicios adicionales como comunidad, mantenimiento o seguros para mantener la rentabilidad minima para el que arriesga su patrimonio.

El alquiler en el momento de la firma será el máximo posible por la imposibilidad de subir igualando la inflación.

El parque de viviendas se deteriora por al no tener sentido invertir en mantener el inmueble en las mejores condiciones.

Véase :  'Viviendas de Renta Antigua'

Incremento de la necesidad de contratar seguridad privada (alarmas, desokupas...) para proteger la propiedad privada

Desinversion de aquellos que profesionalizan el sector.

Ninguna de estas medidas rebajaran el precio del alquiler.

Y aunque el propietario pague la comisión de la inmobiliaria ... al ser necesario pedir 2 meses de garantía y 1 de fianza para entrar en un inmueble 'legalmente', el impacto será mínimo.

[sudden and sharp]

[ Time's gone. God save the Time. ]

[Derby]

https://www.cityam.com/britains-renters-are-the-real-victims-of-this-inflation-and-interest-rate-crunch/

Britain’s renters are the real victims of this inflation and interest rate crunch

People doubtless would’ve gasped at headlines last week about UK interest rates being on course for five per cent.

Such a path looked implausible in March when Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse and Credit Suisse’s shotgun marriage to UBS sparked fears of a financial market meltdown.

After those events, traders trimmed their expectations of how much more damage central banks could do to their respective economies without causing more things to break in the global banking network.

Now, certainly in the UK, when it comes to market expectations of where borrowing costs are headed, we’re back to levels not seen since the weeks after Liz Truss’s mini budget roiled the UK debt market.

After numbers from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) last week revealed inflation hung in the double digits last month at 10.1 per cent – above the Bank of England and City’s projections – traders hiked their peak rate forecasts sharply.

Make no mistake, that’s a huge jump. Yes, they expected another 25 basis point increase on 11 May before last Wednesday’s inflation numbers, but that was it.

Now Bank Governor Andrew Bailey and the rest of the monetary policy committee are poised to really strain the UK economy to get rid of the inflation beast.

Monetary policy has a few pipelines that channel its effects, with the housing market being among the most influential.

Higher mortgage rates and a greater risk of unemployment have sent UK house prices down for seven straight months, according to Nationwide’s data.

Banks have effectively forced people out of the market by passing on Bailey and co’s rate increases, meaning sellers have to slim asking prices to find buyers. With rates now on course for five per cent, the outlook for house prices has got a whole lot worse.

Mortgage rates will probably reverse some of their decline since the Truss-induced volatility.

That rise also risks engineering a lot of friction between landlords and tenants, a relationship that’s been strained ad infinitum.

Rates on buy-to-let mortgages – which landlords use to purchase a home to rent – have jumped from 3.22 per cent to 5.56 per cent over the last year, according to data provider Moneyfacts.

That surge has prompted landlords to hoist rents steeply over the last year. The ONS said last year rents leapt 4.9 per cent annually in March, the biggest rise since the data was first tracked in 2016.

Rents have been on an upward march



In London, they rose five per cent. Of course, that average hides some of the larger increases at the top of the range.

Renters are at the sharp end of the cost of living crisis. They typically have less income than homeowners, meaning a greater share of their finances are eaten up by housing bills.

Resolution Foundation research last week found they’ve been more likely to fall behind on rent payments than homeowners have on mortgage bills since inflation took off.

And there are signs that young, talented workers are fleeing London due to massive living costs or just shunning the capital altogether after they graduate.

House prices have been turbocharged by ultra low interest rates since the financial crisis and quantitative easing pumping cheap cash in the economy.

UK house price growth has raced ahead of its peers



That has meant landlords have to borrow more to buy a home, pushing up rents.

More important than those two factors is bad supply. As research from the Centre for Policy Studies (CPS) points out, countries in Europe have also had rock bottom rates for more than a decade, but house prices have not risen as much as in the UK.

“Despite having similar population growth over the period as a whole, both France and the Netherlands roughly doubled their housing stock, whereas the UK’s has grown by just 46 per cent. Accordingly, real house price increases in the UK have been more than double those of France and the Netherlands, even as interest rates have been broadly comparable,” a report penned by Alex Morton and Elizabeth Dunkley for the CPS found.

To rebalance the housing market so that people don’t have to shoulder unaffordable rents and offer young people a genuine chance of getting on the property ladder, we have to build more liveable and sustainable homes.

Providing immediate help to the poorest who can’t afford massive rent and mortgage bill increases is necessary to tackle hardship.

But fundamentally we need to pursue a policy mix that increases housing supply to prevent such sudden and sharp increases from happening in the first place.

[Benzino Napaloni]

Buenas tardes Cyberfamilia


He encontrado un filón, por si a alguien le interesa:

https://twitter.com/IkerRealEstate?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

[...]

Y aquí esas consecuencias explicaitas :
https://twitter.com/IkerRealEstate/status/1650552303282270235

Conmovedor.

Cuando se subió el plazo de alquiler de 3 a 5 años también se amenazaba con que no se alquilaría más. Y el alquiler llegó a aumentar, no a bajar.

Se nota que la ley va a tocar la fibra sensible. No darían tantas explicaciones si pudiesen vender sin más. ¿Le importa acaso al twittero éste "la profesionalización del sector" o el mantenimiento del parque de viviendas?

El rebote lo tienen como los afectados por AFINSA, saben que se van a comer pérdidas porque ni pueden vender recuperando lo pagado, ni pueden alquilar de forma que "la hipoteca la pague el bicho".

[Derby]

El sindicat de llogateres (sindicato de inquilinas) plantea las siguientes hipótesis de posibles aumentos de la renta en contratos de arrendamiento de vivienda al amparo de la nueva ley de la vivienda, que este jueves recibirá la aprobación del Congreso. Incluye la repercusión del IBI al inquilino y un incremento del 10% por la ejecución de mejoras de accesibilidad (una rampa, p. ej.) a la vivienda.

https://beteve.cat/economia/sindicat-llogateres-alerta-llei-habitatge-pujada-35-per-cent-cinc-anys/

[Derby]

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65382231

First Republic: Shares fall after more than $100bn of withdrawals

Shares in First Republic have tumbled more than 40% as investors question its future.

The falls came a day after the mid-size US bank said customers had pulled more than $100bn (£80bn) from their accounts amid last month's banking panic.

First Republic had been seen as one of the banks most at risk of failure, after a series of bank collapses raised fears of a crisis in the sector.

It was stabilised by a multi-billion dollar rescue deal.

The firm's update provided a glimpse of how quickly the concerns spread.

The bank said it lost roughly 40% of its deposits in the days following those collapses, as customers rushed to withdraw funds.

It ended March with roughly $104bn in deposits, including $30bn it received from other banks in a rescue plan aimed at shoring up confidence.

First Republic said the situation had since stabilised.

It added that it was pursuing "strategic options" to strengthen its position, including cutting costs by shedding 20% to 25% of its workforce in the coming months.(...)

[Derby]

https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-april-25th-2023/

Credit: US money supply is contracting but remains elevated in real terms and as a percentage of GDP.

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-25/nomura-hunts-for-new-manhattan-offices-as-firm-seeks-to-downsize

Nomura Hunts for New Manhattan Offices as Firm Seeks to Downsize


Bank has hired Cushman & Wakefield to find office space
Office vacancies in Manhattan have hit record heights

The US unit of Tokyo-based Nomura Holdings Inc. is looking for new offices in Manhattan, joining finance firms seeking higher-quality space as they downsize their footprints.

Nomura is hunting for roughly 500,000 square feet (46,500 square meters) of offices, a smaller space than it currently occupies, according to people familiar with the plans. The firm has hired brokerage Cushman & Wakefield to find the space(...)

[Derby]

Como si no hubiera mañana...

https://www.ft.com/content/7e03c529-6168-435a-aef0-7cf119cb457f

Asset manager capitalism 3.0

The real asset investment splurge

The recent kerfuffle around Blackstone’s real estate investment trust has served as a timely reminder of one of the more notable developments in finance in recent times — the large-scale move of investment institutions into ownership of the physical world around us.

The days of asset managers owning only financial assets are long gone.

This of course matters for a ton of reasons, but mostly because in owning “real assets”, asset managers directly influence people’s everyday lives in a way that isn’t true with their ownership of financial assets. Those that control assets that provide services we simply can’t do without — such as energy, shelter and water — are particularly powerful.

One key question — not easy to answer — is how much of this essential physical stuff asset managers actually own?

Well, a recent-ish estimate pegged the assets under management (AUM) of the world’s 100 largest infrastructure investment managers at over $1.65tn. Does this mean the infrastructure that they own is worth $1.65tn? No, it’s actually far more than that.

AUM refers to the market value of the invested equity, but most asset management investments in infrastructure will be leveraged. Conservatively, let’s assume average leverage of 45 per cent. That would imply they control $3tn in physical assets.

Housing is harder to get a handle on. Surprisingly hard. But reverse-engineering from data from the likes of INREV, the European Association for Investors in Non-Listed Real Estate as well as individual asset managers like Axa Investment Managers and Blackstone, and we’re probably looking at a number somewhere north of $1tn.

So if we can conservatively estimate the value of housing and infrastructure controlled by asset managers at $4tn, the obvious follow-up question is how the “new” era of higher inflation and interest rates will affect things. Will investors stick, twist or fold?

There’s an argument that they will pull back. After all, one of the biggest reasons investment in housing and infrastructure boomed in the post-financial crisis years was the relative attractiveness of steady yields in a low-interest-rate environment. Now you can get almost 5 per cent in triple-A rated corporate bonds. Moreover, the leverage an asset manager would use to juice returns is no longer cheap as chips.

But here’s the thing. There is (for now at least) zero evidence of investors folding on housing or infrastructure, or even just sticking. On the contrary; they seem to be doubling down.

Barely a day goes by without news of this or that investor increasing their allocation to housing, infrastructure or both. The average current allocation to infrastructure was 4.6 per cent as of the end of 2021, but the average target allocation has crept up 6.6 per cent, according to Institutional Investor.

It makes sense that investors want to keep shovelling money into housing and infrastructure. Residential real estate is certainly a better inflation hedge than commercial property. And infrastructure is a better hedge still, especially in the case of regulated assets, where rate increases linked to inflation are often contractually guaranteed.

Meanwhile, anyone who thought the increased cost of debt might prove an obstacle clearly hadn’t reckoned with the endless ingenuity of asset managers. ‘Our traditional sources of debt are more expensive? OK then, we’ll just supply the debt ourselves!’

Back in 2018, Brookfield Asset Management head Bruce Flatt told mainFT that we were only a decade into a half-century “transformation” of the infrastructure world, and predicted that in 50 years “most infrastructure in the world will be transferred to private hands”.

In short, the world should be braced for more asset manager investment in the physical foundations of the global economy and our own lives — not less.

[sudden and sharp]

-1.0%





Precios industriales... IPRI
https://www.ine.es/daco/daco42/daco423/ipri0323.pdf

[ De... Defla... DE FLA CIÓN     ]

[sudden and sharp]

[muyuu]

First Republic cayó otro 40% ayer y lleva perdido el 93% en lo que va de año

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/inmobiliario/mercado/2023/04/25/6446d43ae5fdea8b788b4581.html

Saludos.