Re: Tema: PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Primavera 2023

[sudden and sharp]

Diesel renovable al 100%...


Repsol inicia el suministro de diésel renovable en tres estaciones de servicio
https://www.eleconomista.es/energia/noticias/12256055/05/23/repsol-inicia-el-suministro-de-diesel-renovable-en-tres-estaciones-de-srervicio.html
- Aspira a contar con 50 puntos de venta a finales de año



 

[senslev]

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2023/05/03/de-dollarization-not-a-matter-of-if-but-when/

The United States may have a powerful military, but its true strength lies in the value and status of its currency.

With the U.S. dollar seen and accepted as the world reserve currency, America has the privilege to control the global financial system, run federal deficits without having to worry about consequences, and literally print trillions of dollars out of thin air.

This unique advantage also allows the U.S. to keep interest on its accumulated debt low and provide its citizens a standard of living that would not otherwise be possible. But how long will it last?

Since the end of World War II, the U.S. has held what is often referred to as an “exorbitant privilege” over the global economy. From the destruction of the war came America’s rise and, with it, the acquisition of most of the world’s gold reserves and half the world’s GDP. Its wealth gave the U.S. the power to dictate the terms of the Bretton Woods Agreement between 44 countries.

This agreement stipulated that the dollar would be pegged to gold, while all other countries’ currencies would be pegged to the dollar. The essence of it was that the dollar was as good as gold, backed by its reserves. Countries could rest assured that they could at any time exchange their dollars for physical gold.

For a few decades, the agreement worked well. But the U.S. began running large deficits during Lyndon Johnson’s “Guns or Butter” policy of the late 1960s, which led certain European countries, particularly France, to begin to exchange their dollars for gold. In 1971, concerned that its gold reserves were being depleted, the Nixon administration made a unilateral decision to temporarily close its gold window, turning the dollar into a fiat currency.

This marked the end of Bretton Woods and ushered in an era of floating exchange rates that still exists today.

The U.S. avoided the economic hardship of essentially devaluing its currency by implementing the ingenious plan of creating the petrodollar. This simple but far-reaching idea had significant financial and geopolitical consequences. In essence, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia entered into an agreement whereby the Saudis agreed to exclusively sell their oil in dollars and invest those dollars in U.S. treasury bills. In return, America provided the Saudis a security guarantee.

Oil is the most widely traded commodity in the world, and by pricing it in dollars, there was an ensured global demand for American currency.

Needless to say, the Europeans were not pleased with America’s broken promise. To fight back, some European nations began discussing the possibility of returning to a gold standard which excluded the U.S. dollar.

The U.S. administration became aware of the European plan and, according to the minutes of the 1974 meeting between Henry Kissinger and Assistant Secretary Thomas Enders, it was made clear that this would not be allowed to proceed. The highlights of that meeting were unambiguous to say the least. Collectively, European countries had more gold than the U.S. If they joined forces, they could set the price of gold at a higher level, thus creating additional reserves and credit. In Kissinger’s words, they would be able to create a “money printing machine.”

The minutes also clearly stated that such a move would be detrimental to America’s interests and that, if Europe tried it, America would “squash” them. Ultimately, for the plan to succeed Germany would have had to cooperate. But with the Soviet Union looming on its doorstep, it was in no position to cross the U.S.

America’s strong dollar policy was successful for the ensuing decades. But by the late 1990s, two important seeds began to grow: China’s economy and America’s profligacy. By the early 2000s, America had transformed from once being the world’s largest creditor to becoming its largest debtor nation and the Federal Reserve began a reckless monetary policy which has lasted for the last two decades.

Following the 2008 financial crisis, China complained about how the U.S. was devaluing the dollar through its large accumulation of debt and excessive printing of money and began to voice its desire to introduce a new global financial system. With the notable exception of countries subject to U.S. sanctions (e.g., Russia, Venezuela, Iran, and North Korea), the idea of a new monetary system was met with indifference. The concept of anything superseding the dollar was considered unthinkable by most of the developed world as verging on heresy by America.

That is, until recently.

When Russia invaded Ukraine, everything changed. The U.S. and NATO countries (the West) not only imposed sanctions on Russia, but they also froze its U.S. dollar reserves and blocked it from the SWIFT dollar transfer system.

Seeing an opportunity, China took notice and encouraged much of the world to follow suit. The race began to find alternatives. While the West was right to confront Russia for its unprovoked aggression, they underestimated the global response to these sanctions.

The BRICS countries and much of the global south have been reluctant to sever ties with Russia for a variety of reasons — from needing their oil, food, fertilizer, and military equipment, to taking advantage of the Wagner Group to counter domestic anti-insurgency efforts.

Additionally, many in the global south have harbored long-held resentments towards the West’s rhetorical “rules-based world order,” which they see as hypocritical and self-serving. The freezing of Russia’s dollar reserves and exclusion from the SWIFT system also put countries on notice that they might be next.

Financial systems are built on trust and, if they are weaponized, they lose the trust necessary to retain their dominance. 

As such, in just over a 12-month period, countries around the world mustered the courage to begin openly discussing the creation of alternative methods to conduct trade and settlement, as well as reducing their dollar reserves. The trade and settlement role of the dollar is where most of exiting will occur and where the demand for the dollar will fall away more precipitously.

Furthermore, BRICS countries have attracted numerous new member applications over the past year, with Egypt, Turkey, Algeria, and most recently Saudi Arabia showing interest and making declarations about creating a BRICS currency to compete with the dollar.

Many of these countries have been aggressively adding to their gold reserves over the past 13 years, and the size of their purchases has been accelerating, suggesting that perhaps any new currency might be backed by gold. Brazil (which has become increasingly vocal about its displeasure with the U.S. dollar system) and Argentina have started promoting the idea of creating a South American trading block and currency, the sur, similar to the European Union and euro.

The laundry list of dollar alternatives is long and growing daily. Examples include China testing cross-border digital currency settlements with Thailand and the UAE, insisting that sanctioned countries such as Russia, Iran and Venezuela accept yuan as payment for oil. Saudi Arabia is considering doing the same (there are rumors that Saudi is already selling oil for yuan and converting those yuan for gold on the Shanghai exchange). India is also buying some of its Russian oil in UAE dirhams. The simplest method, which is becoming increasingly popular, is bi-lateral agreements using local currencies.

The critical unanswered question is how the U.S. will respond to moves to de-dollarize. Any sudden decrease in U.S. dollar demand could have disastrous consequences for Americans. It could potentially trigger a U.S. dollar crisis leading to very high inflation, or even hyperinflation, and initiate a debt and money printing cycle that could tear apart the social fabric of society.

In short, any U.S. administration would ultimately consider any such de-dollarization moves to be matters of national security.

Much of the global community is cheering, however. A lot of sovereign debt held by the global south is denominated in greenbacks, and an overpriced dollar makes debt service nearly impossible today. Additionally, because most commodities are priced in dollars, many less developed countries are importing inflation that would otherwise accrue to the U.S.

That being said, BRICS nations should consider what America’s reaction to sudden shifts away from the dollar might be. History has demonstrated that it is exceptionally rare for a transfer of global economic power to take place without major warfare.

Despite America’s likely opposition, de-dollarization will persist, as most of the non-Western world wants a trading system that does not make them vulnerable to dollar weaponization or hegemony. It’s no longer a question of if, but when.

To break away from this hazardous trajectory, credible and inclusive dialogue regarding a new global agreement should commence now, in which major economies consent to a new monetary system (perhaps backed by gold and/or commodities) by consensus, including the U.S. This would inevitably involve substantial discomfort for the U.S., possibly to such an extent that it is politically unpalatable.

The best we can hope for is a process that facilitates the gradual decrease in dollar demand over a lengthy period of time, allowing the U.S. and other countries to adjust accordingly. A multipolar monetary system might provide a more equitable playing field to poorer countries and just maybe give the U.S. and the world longer-term economic and political stability. The likely outcome of this would still be quite chaotic and involve a drop in the standard of living for Americans. Nevertheless, this path appears inevitable, and such an option is preferable to the inevitable turmoil of the more extreme scenarios we have seen throughout history.

[Derby]

https://www.vozpopuli.com/economia_y_finanzas/rentabilidad-alquiler-cae-nivel-bono-espanol-calor-ley-vivienda.html

La rentabilidad del alquiler cae al nivel del bono español al calor de la Ley de Vivienda

Los retornos por la mera compra de deuda pública se acercan a los de invertir en vivienda para alquiler ante las nuevas restricciones, que amenazan con retraer la oferta

La rentabilidad bruta de alquilar una vivienda ha caído hasta el 3,4% al cierre del último trimestre, según se desprende de los últimos datos al efecto del Banco de España. En el último año, el filón de los arrendamientos residenciales ha retrocedido un 8%, atendiendo a la misma fuente.

Una pérdida de negocio que cobra cierta relevancia cuando se constata que la principal competencia del alquiler de vivienda por la seguridad de sus retornos se ha revalorizado el último año: la deuda pública. La rentabilidad del bono español a diez años cerró el último trimestre también en el 3,4%, por el 1,5% que ofrecía hace un año y el 0,1% con el que había cerrado el 2021.

De este modo, destinar una vivienda a alquilarla es, en promedio, igual de rentable que el bono más seguro, el estatal. En sectores financieros se interpreta como una amenaza a la generación de nueva oferta de pisos en alquiler -y más aún, de arrendamientos asequibles- y su redirección hacia la venta. Y es que la inversión para alquiler no tenía semejante competencia desde el año 2013, justo cuando los fondos de inversión internacionales empezaron a ver atractivo en invertir en el mercado del residencial para arrendamiento.

"El diferencial de rentabilidades es prácticamente inexistente en estos momentos", apuntan desde el departamento de estudios de Bankinter, incidiendo en que "el fuerte repunte de TIR del bono español a 10 años resta atractivo a la inversión en vivienda para alquiler". "Además, la nueva Ley de Vivienda limitará el incremento de los alquileres al 2% este año y 3% en 2024 y fijará una nueva referencia distinta al IPC para las revisiones a futuro", añade el experto inmobiliario del banco, Juan Moreno.

Desde 2025 en adelante, las actualizaciones se ligarían a un índice todavía no desarrollado. En cualquier caso, la nueva referencia podría acabar siendo "similar" al mismo IPC, según han apuntado fuentes ministeriales del ala socialista, cuya intención sigue siendo paralelamente la de no regular los alquileres turísticos para no invadir competencias autonómicas.(...)

[Derby]

La Fed sube 0,25%

https://twitter.com/financialjuice/status/1653821779356311552

@financialjuice ⚠️ BREAKING: US INTEREST RATE DECISION ACTUAL 5.25% (FORECAST 5.25%, PREVIOUS 5%) $MACRO

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/57982ca5-c5da-4154-8524-e7ef7987d028

Is ‘greedflation’ on its way out?

Probably not but apparently you’re more likely to click if the headline is a question

Alphaville loves a good “greedflation” chart, as our readers know.

The US’s latest bout of inflation has been caused by ahem, coincided with a steep increase in profit margins of S&P 500 companies. It has not coincided with a sharp rise in the unit cost of labour, which has climbed but not nearly as fast, as TS Lombard writes Wednesday:

Unlike in previous episodes, when rising inflation meant rising wages and shrinking profits, margins have benefited from inflation over the past two years. Wages have risen in nominal terms, but profits have risen even more amid falling real labour costs.

That’s shown in this handy chart, with both profits and wages normalised to 1995:



For years, persistently high profit margins have been raising questions about the sustainability of capitalism itself. For about six years, in fact. The basic argument — including from capital-markets stalwarts like Goldman Sachs — is this: the concentration of pricing power and resources among S&P 500 companies makes it easier for them to wring out profits in good and bad times, and those profits often come at the expense of individuals’ incomes and living standards.

The post-pandemic inflation has been a helpful demonstration of this dynamic, as economist Isabella Weber argued in a standout paper earlier this year.

Now TS Lombard strategists are arguing that trend is changing, in an argument that should be encouraging for households and . . . perhaps less so for S&P 500 companies. Profit margins have in fact fallen back to pre-pandemic averages. The strategists believe the margin contraction will continue:

The next phase of margin contraction will be more painful. All of this is probably coming to an end now. With inflation rolling over fast, companies will struggle to persuade their customers to pay more. And with saving stocks close to being depleted and the post-Covid reopening impulse having faded, consumers have already started pushing back on higher prices. Moreover, as producer and consumer prices have fallen sharply, labour costs have remained resilient, as high inflation feeds in with a lag: they are now higher than producer prices and headline CPI (see chart below left).

It is worth noting that lower earners — who have the largest propensity to consume — are the ones enjoying the fastest wage growth. Though not our base case, it is worth considering that this development could trigger another wave of inflation. However, what seems more likely is that we are returning to the “normal” inflation described above. Corporate margins have already been declining for more than a year, but they have done so from record-high levels, making the process relatively painless. The next phase will be different.

It will be interesting to see whether this can happen without a change in the concentration of corporate power, since that helped fuel the initial spiral in prices.

After all, if there are only a few companies selling goods in a popular market, they don’t need to try very hard to attract buyers.

[Derby]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/fed-likely-hike-rates-hint-pause-tightening-cycle-2023-05-03/

Fed delivers small rate hike, flags possible pause in tightening cycle

WASHINGTON, May 3 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point and signaled it may pause further increases, giving officials time to assess the fallout from recent bank failures, wait on the resolution of a political standoff over the U.S. debt ceiling, and monitor the course of inflation.

The unanimous decision lifted the U.S. central bank's benchmark overnight interest rate to the 5.00%-5.25% range, the Fed's tenth consecutive increase since March 2022.

But the accompanying policy statement dropped language saying that its rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee still "anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2% over time."

In its place the Fed inserted a more qualified statement, reminiscent of language used when it halted rate hikes in 2006, which says that "in determining the extent to which additional policy firming may be appropriate," officials will study how the economy, inflation and financial markets behave in the coming weeks and months.

The new language does not guarantee the Fed will hold rates steady at its next policy meeting in June, and the statement noted that "inflation remains elevated," and job gains are still "running at a robust pace."

But the Fed's policy rate is now roughly the same as it was on the eve of a destabilizing financial crisis 16 years ago, and is at the level which a majority of Fed officials projected in March would in fact be "sufficiently restrictive" to return inflation to target. It is currently still more than twice that level.

Economic growth remains modest, but "recent developments are likely to result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses and to weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation," the Fed said.

Risks around the recent failures of several U.S. banks and a debt limit standoff between Republicans in Congress and Democratic President Joe Biden have added to the Fed's sense of caution about trying to tighten financial conditions further.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. EDT (1830 GMT) to elaborate on the outcome of the latest two-day policy meeting.

[Derby]

https://www.cityam.com/london-house-prices-first-time-buyers-need-household-income-of-nearly-100k-to-buy/

London house prices: First-time buyers need household income of nearly £100k to buy

Londoners’ desire to get on the property ladder has helped fuel the housing market in the capital, despite households now needing an extra £12k in income to be able to afford their own place.

Figures released by Zoopla, show that in April house price growth in London rose by 0.5 per cent, as demand and market activity in the capital continued to outperform other Southern regions in the UK.

However, the average household income in London required to buy a two-bed home is now £97k up from £91k in 2020, and a three-bed home is £115k up from £103k almost three years ago.

“Demand and market activity in the London sales market is doing better than in other regions across Southern England. This is because house prices have lagged behind the rest of the market since 2016,” Richard Donnell, executive director at Zoopla said. (...)

[AbiertoPorDemolicion]

Yo esto de la desdolarizacion no la veo ten fácil de implementar como lo están contando. Puede tener más inconvenientes que ventajas.

Lo cuento con marionetas.

La República de chikitistan y el reino de españistan acuerdan hacer sus intercambios comerciales en sus monedas nacionales. Chiquitistan produce coches y españistan cosechas de trigo. Chiquitistan vende  su producción de coches a españistan, y este se lo paga con un millón de mortadelos, con la idea de que al año siguiente, españistan le cambie esos mortadelos por su cosecha de trigo.
Pasa el año, y cuando los de chikitistan le pide a los de españistan la cosecha de trigo, estos ya se la han zampado y no tienen más en su economía que ofrecerles. Los de chikitistan se comen los mortadelos con patatas.

Lo que quiero decir con esto es que la desdolarizacion complica mucho el comercio internacional. Obliga a los países a estar pendiente de la evolución de la economía de todos los países con los que comercia, para no terminar comiéndose los mortadelos con patatas.

El dólar se puede intercambiar por cualquier producto en cualquier parte del mundo.  Te da igual que los de españistan sean unos bandarras que se van a zampar sus cosechas antes de que tu las necesites. Si te han pagado en dolares, puedes comprar el trigo que vas a necesitar en cualquier parte del mundo.

Veremos los problemas y las guerras que va a provocar este invento del comercio internacional en monedas nacionales, porque cuando los países empiecen a comerse los mortadelos de los españistanies, veremos a ver como se lo toman.

[Derby]

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/05/fomc-statement-raise-rates-25-bp-pause.html

FOMC Statement: Raise Rates 25 bp; Pause in June Likely

Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T-hWy7EMfzo min. 56:30), starting at 2:30 PM ET.

FOMC Statement:

Economic activity expanded at a modest pace in the first quarter. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated.

The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Tighter credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects remains uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 5 to 5-1/4 percent. The Committee will closely monitor incoming information and assess the implications for monetary policy. In determining the extent to which additional policy firming may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Patrick Harker; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Lorie K. Logan; and Christopher J. Waller.

[sudden and sharp]

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[ El Astronaut Day es el viernes 5. ]

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/expansion-nacional/20230503/page/2/textview

La contratación de hipotecas se resiente

https://www.expansion.com/empresas/banca/2023/05/03/6451715fe5fdea293a8b4629.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/fiscal/2023/05/03/6451595c468aeb4c048b45c8.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://cincodias.elpais.com/companias/2023-05-03/el-alza-de-tipos-de-interes-atrapa-a-la-banca-con-32900-millones-en-creditos-dudosos-ligados-al-ladrillo.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://cincodias.elpais.com/opinion/2023-05-03/una-vivienda-turistica-racionalmente-regulada.html

https://cincodias.elpais.com/opinion/2023-05-03/la-revolucion-de-las-tareas-intelectuales-y-las-cartas-expuestas-de-ceoe.html

https://cincodias.elpais.com/economia/2023-05-02/viena-la-estrella-indiscutible-del-mercado-europeo-del-alquiler.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/economia/financial-times/2023/05/02/64515a90468aeb9c128b462f.html

Saludos.