Re: Tema: PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Primavera 2023

[saturno]

[El concepto «cáncer de España» es orteguiano. «La alpargata». Es lo que está detrás de los Huerta de Soto, los 'The Pine's', incluso de los Rojas-Estapé, del Opus Dei.

¡Links!

Huerta del Soto, sale en Wikipedia. Escuela austríaca. Ok.

The Pines sólo me sale una urbanización (?). Y una película yankee.

Rojas-Estapé es una Psiquiatra embajadora de Manos Unidas. También en Wikipedia. Ha encontrado la solucion para tu vida vendiéndote un libro para que busques a "personas-vitamina" (?). Será un efecto balistico hormonal.

Un poco de contexto, gracias, que escribiendo posts con alpargatas no vamos a curar a Europa. 

[sudden and sharp]

Los Pines son los Del Pino, los de Ferrovial, entiendo.

[asustadísimos]

[Ahora, la recesión es accesoria.— Entendiendo recesión en sentido amplio, la tenemos cronificada. Pero la muerte (ciclo estructural) es compatible con creer que se está sano, incluso con no estar realmente enfermo (ciclo coyuntural). En los cambios estructurales, de modelo o de patrón de Producción-Renta-Gasto, dar la recesión no es lo principal sino que es accesorio. Lo que no podemos hacer es no dar las correcciones valorativas que significan el cambio. De todas formas, la recesión ya ha sido dada oficialmente, solo que los comemierdas hacen como que no la ven.

«Los bares están llenos». Todo el consumo que se observa estadísticamente (habría que ver, como con la inflación) es con una simultánea descomposición histórica del sentimiento del consumidor:

http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

A nosotros, los estructuraltransicionistas, no nos sorprende. Nosotros, fríos. Torres más altas han caído. Estamos en una guerra civil económica entre los que se creen capitalistitas y el verdadero Capital. La pandemia de cóvid ha desdibujado (velado) el proceso de cambio estructural más que la guerra de Ucrania. Los comemierdas ven ambas cosas como una 'bendición', los muy canallas. Pero estas disrupciones, como las llama la retórica oficial, catalizan la transición estructural. La resucitación del modelo es imposible. Solo cabe la resurrección del sistema en el nuevo modelo de sustitución. La mala noticia que de verdad hay que dar es realmente malísima... para los comemierdas.]

[asustadísimos]

[Ortega y Gasset.— La calle más pija de Madrid es la calle de Ortega y Gasset, donde está la tienda de 'Hermès'. Ortega decía que «España es el problema y Europa la solución». Encerraba una visión pesimista de España que nosotros llamamos «la alpargata». ¡A que esto les suena a leyendanegrismo! A los economistas «ii» falsoliberales, y sus amiguitos los obreros-directivos de empresa 'bienpagaos', también España les da como corte (a los Del Pino, 'The Pine's', de Ferrovial, tanto que ya se han liberado yéndose a 'Europa'). Ortega, en teoría jesuítico, resulta que abrió la puerta de atrás de España a la penetración de lo anglo, que de todas maneras hubiera entrado, vía empresa. En realidad no se sabe qué era Ortega, salvo un erudito divulgador de ideas filosóficas, con una prosa complicadísima. Intenten leerlo. Ya verán cuánto floripondio. Hoy sería un 'liberal de extremo centro', equidistante del hombrenuevismo nazi y del supuestamente soviético. De lo que no cabe duda es de que Ortega tenía complejo de alpargata, que como digo se predica de las masas, sobre todo, españolas. Un alpargata no tan mental como parece. Resulta, así, protestantizante y, desde luego, puritano, de ahí su idea de excelencia. Esto es también lo que le pasa al Opus Dei. El psiquiatra Rojas, casado con la hija de Estapé, son del Opus Dei. Se les ahogó un hijo en la piscina del chalé. ¡Qué mal rollo! Él tiene un (buen) libro, de título «El hombre light: la importancia de una vida con valores». De este libro se infiere que hay que ser excelente. ¡Vale, perfecto! Pero, claro, la excelencia no es objetiva. Se aprecia subjetivamente. ¿Por quién? ¡Por alguien más excelente que tú!, ¿o no? ¿Acaso hay una ecuación que mida la excelencia? No. Hay un club de excelentes, con su orden jerárquico y un ser supremo de carne y hueso, donde está reservado el derecho de admisión. ¿No pasa esto en las empresas? Los tachados como no-excelentes, evidentemente, proscritos. No se salvan ni siendo santos del santoral. Pero, atención, los últimos de los excelentes, también están proscritos, porque pueden quitarte el puesto en el ranking de excelencia, aparte de que, y esta es la clave, todos tenemos algo que nos desdora y eso es, precisamente, lo que se usa para declararte proscrito, aunque seas papa. ¿Acaso los mea-colonia no han proscrito al papa Franscisco?
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/_Y_GOkVpO5c
¿Hay algo más protestantizante que la administración de la excelencia? ¿No ven la línea recta con el complejo de alpargata? El propietariado se las trae, también, con este temita. Que si «el mío está mejor orientado», que si «el tuyo es del año de la tana», que si «mi hipoteca es a tipo fijo y solo al casi nada por ciento». iNosotros, a lo nuestro: meter lo que va sucediendo en nuestra máquina lógica de prever el futuro —considerando los elementos irracionales también— y seguir acertando.]

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/vivienda-inmobiliario/noticias/12333478/06/23/castlelake-planea-excluir-aedas-homes-por-su-baja-valoracion-bursatil.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/vivienda-inmobiliario/noticias/12333073/06/23/neinor-vende-a-savills-im-dos-torres-de-pisos-en-alquiler-en-valencia-por-66-millones.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12331809/06/23/diaz-propone-un-bono-social-de-emergencia-para-hipotecas-de-hasta-250000-euros.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/opinion/noticias/12333395/06/23/limitada-retribucion-en-depositos.html

https://www.eleconomista.es/banca-finanzas/noticias/12332618/06/23/la-banca-rechaza-presiones-de-calvino-y-dice-que-habra-depositos-si-lo-impone-el-cliente.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12332140/06/23/el-salario-medio-fue-de-25897-euros-en-2021-pero-el-mas-comun-se-quedo-7394-euros-por-debajo-.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12332175/06/23/el-envejecimiento-restara-casi-un-punto-del-pib-espanol-esta-decada-alerta-la-airef.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/opinion/noticias/12331882/06/23/pensiones-vencedores-y-vencidos.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

Del informe de Hartnett de la semana pasada...

A bear of Very Little Brain

Aunque el objetivo principal del informe es justificar por qué se ha equivocado sobre lo que iba a ocurrir en esta primera mitad del año...

A Bear of Very Little Brain: bears like us have been wrong H1’23 because…

• Goldilocks trumped Recession: neither Q1 EPS/H2 GDP recession happened; nominal GDP remained super-charged by fiscal stimulus/war, labor market impervious to monetary policy in post-pandemic world (interesting comparison with 1920s after Spanish flu – Chart 8​); bonds & growth stocks (both eviscerated by CPI 2% to 9% last year), have traded 9% to 3-4% this year  (Chart 11);
• No Credit Crunch: March SVB/regional bank crisis threatened credit crunch but was deftly averted by Fed & US Treasury emergency liquidity program, there was no QT, no liquidity drain, quite the opposite;
• AI Bull: unanticipated event in H1 was not SVB but rather AI, indeed SVB like LTCM back in 1998 caused Fed easing and liquidity routed into the new secular growth theme of AI (then internet); Magnificent 7 (Chart 15) drove SPX from 3.8k to 4.2k, and breakout + new bull market…investors forced to play catch-up as hard landing risks evaporate.

... todo el mundo se ha centrado en el comentario en el que deja entrever que su percepción sobre lo que está ocurriendo en las bolsas le recuerda a lo vivido en 2000 o en 2008...

Conviction: we see max SPX 100-150 points upside vs 300 points downside between now & Labor Day; we are not convinced we at start of brand, new shiny bull market…still feels more like combo of 2000 or 2008, big rally before big collapse. But until…

• Fed reintroduces fear via communication terminal rate going to 6% to crack embedded inflation (5% core CPI),
• US Treasury yields >4%, real rates to 2% signal financial conditions tightening,
• US unemployment rate >4% = signaling recession…

…credit spreads can remain low, equities elevated, and investors likely to chase via rotate from momentum to contrarian plays, from deflation to inflation assets, from DM to EM stocks, from no landing plays to hard landing plays…

• No landing plays…limited trading upside…Magnificent 7, SOX (Chart 7 – already discounting big recovery), Europe luxury, VIX, homebuilders, some industrials,
• Hard landing…higher trading upside: MOVE, REITs, CRE, banks, small cap, oil, China, EM stocks.

Saludos.

[Derby]

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/powell-face-capitol-hill-questions-economy-interest-rate-plans

Powell to face Capitol Hill questions on economy and interest rate plans

Powell will kick off his two-day hearings by testifying in front of the House Financial Services Committee

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell begins two days of hearings before Congress on Wednesday.

Powell's appearance comes after last week's policy meeting in which the Fed paused its rate hike run for the first time in 11 meetings.

The 18 members of its policy committee predicted two more interest rate hikes this year – one more than analysts had expected – to fight inflation, which they now think will be higher next year than previously anticipated.

Powell's testimony will begin with the House Financial Services Committee.

The major question lawmakers will want to know will be how far and how fast will the Fed raise its key interest rate from here?

After last week's meeting, Powell explicitly said no decisions had been made about whether to raise the Fed's benchmark rate at its next meeting in late July.

However, based on economist and policymakers' forecasts, a rate hike next month is all but assured.

The Fed's plan to keep rates unchanged for now allows additional time to further assess the impact that the rate hikes have had on the economy before deciding on its next moves.

It has raised its benchmark rate by a substantial five percentage points in barely more than a year – the fastest pace of rate hikes in four decades.

"Given how far we have come, it may make sense for rates to move higher but at a more moderate pace," Powell said. "It’s just the idea that we’re trying to get this right."

The interest hikes have impacted consumers in the form of higher home and auto loans, credit cards and business borrowing. The goal has been to cool inflation by slowing spending and hiring.

"There is a path to getting inflation back down to 2% without having to see the kind of sharp downturn and large losses of employment that we’ve seen in so many past instances," the Fed chair said. "It’s possible."

Yet both Republicans and Democrats in the House and Senate may express misgivings about whether the Fed can pull it off.

Powell may also face questions concerning the stability of the banking system in the aftermath of three bank failures since March.

[Derby]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/slowing-chinese-economy-more-concern-eu-firms-than-geopolitics-survey-2023-06-21/

Slowing Chinese economy of more concern to EU firms than geopolitics - survey

BEIJING, June 21 (Reuters) - A slowdown in both the Chinese and global economies is the biggest issue affecting European firms in China, beating political tensions with the United States and decoupling, according to the European Chamber of Commerce in China.

The number of European firms that see China as a top-three destination for future investment was at its lowest total on record, the chamber's annual position paper released on Wednesday said. The EUCCC has recorded this figure since 2010.

As rising interest rates and inflation squeeze demand in Europe and the United States, companies in China are in contrast battling a sharp decline in prices as the risk of deflation weighs on the world's second-largest economy.

The number of European companies reporting their China-sourced revenues had decreased in 2022 was three times higher than in 2021, the report said, while the importance of China to companies' global profits fell for a second consecutive year.

"The deterioration of business sentiment that has taken place over the last three years has been significant and cannot be reversed over night," the chamber said.

BASF (BASFn.DE), Maersk (MAERSKb.CO), Siemens (SIEGn.DE), and Volkswagen (VOWG_p.DE) are among the members of the chamber.(...)

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/b3d4291f-857c-46c5-96b8-e67933b6e7e8

Slowdown in junk-rated loan market hits US corporate borrowing plans

CLOs’ appetite for debt wanes due to limits on purchases, pushing up cost of capital as economy slows

Corporate America is feeling the pinch from the slowdown in Wall Street’s $1.4tn market for junk-rated loans, with a growing list of companies forced either to pay more or abandon borrowing plans.

Borrowers have been hit by shifts in the market for collateralised loan obligations, or CLOs, the investment vehicles that own roughly two-thirds of lowly rated US corporate loans.

A loan extension for California utility PG&E was shelved last month, while Heartland Dental, a provider of services to dentists’ offices, and digital media business Internet Brands had to pay lenders more or agree to tougher investor protections in return for extending loan maturities, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

More generally, many CLOs are reining in their debt purchases — restricting the financing possibilities of lower-rated borrowers — because of limits on when and what they can buy as well as the broader economic environment.

That, in turn, is pushing up the cost of borrowing for many US companies.

“When a company has to find new lenders . . . that probably has an impact on the cost of capital because you have to make it interesting for new lenders,” said Rob Zable, the global head of Blackstone’s liquid credit strategies.

Over the past decade the market for leveraged loans has become a critical funding source both for US companies and private equity groups snapping up businesses. The shift has been particularly significant because banks have curtailed some of the lending they did before the financial crisis.

CLOs buy up hundreds of different loans, package them and use the interest payments they generate to fund new slices of debt, which are then sold on to banks, insurers and other investors.(...)