PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Verano 2023

[Derby]

https://mishtalk.com/economics/how-big-is-the-us-housing-bubble/

How Big is the US Housing Bubble?

Some deny there is a housing bubble. I believe the bubble is obvious.


Case-Shiller home price index and Real Disposable Income via St. Louis Fed, chart by Mish.

Chart Notes

*Case-Shiller is a measure of repeat sales of the same house. This is a far better measure than average or median prices that widely vary over time by home size and amenities.

*Disposable means after taxes

*Real means inflation adjusted using the BEA’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation index, not the BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI).

*Both indexes are set to 2000=100.

*Case-Shiller is through May (reflective of March) while Real DPI is through June. There is a minor bit of skew that I did not factor in.

For at least 12 years, home prices followed extremely closely to real disposable personal income. In 2012 the indexes touched again at 133-134.

The BEA calculates REAL based on PCE. Adjusting for inflation by the CPI would make the current bubble look bigger and I believe more accurate.

The important point is the massive divergence between the measures noting that the bubble is a bit understated.

Percentage Difference Between Home Prices and Real DPI

*2006: (185-120)/120 * 100 = 54.17 Percent

*2023: (305-169)/169 * 100) = 80.47 percent

On a real DPI basis, home prices are roughly 80 percent above where they should be.

Some justify these home prices on the basis of mortgage rates and affordability. They are wrong.

The difference between home prices and income is really a measure of the Fed’s propensity to blow financial bubbles by keeping rates too low too long.(...)

[Derby]

https://www.statista.com/chart/30684/gdp-of-brics-members/

[Derby]

https://www.bostonherald.com/2023/08/27/american-workers-want-almost-79000-to-start-new-job/

American workers want almost $79,000 to start new job

The wage floor for American workers climbed to a record high close to $79,000, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey released last week  that also found pay demands among women are rising twice as fast as for men.

The average reservation wage – the lowest annual pay that workers would accept to take a new job – increased to $78,645 in July, according to the New York Fed’s most recent Survey of Consumer Expectations.

That’s up from about $72,900 a year earlier and $69,000 in July 2021.

Pay expectations among women in the labor force rose 11% in the past year, twice as fast as for men, the survey found. Still, there’s a substantial gender gap when it comes to what’s an acceptable salary. For men the average reservation wage was about $91,000 — and for women it was $25,000 lower than that.

Workers with a college degree now expect $98,600 annually to accept a new job, compared with an average $63,300 for those who don’t have one.

For comparison, the median U.S. household income was $70,784 in 2021, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Data for 2022 will be released next month.

The new high in the reservation wage comes as American employers added 187,000 jobs last month, following a similar increase in June. The unemployment rate, at 3.5%, is close to the lowest level in decades and average hourly earnings were up 4.4% in June from a year earlier.

Earlier retirement?

Still, there are signs that the labor market is slowing. The Fed survey found that the average expected likelihood of receiving multiple job offers in the next four months declined to 20.6% from 25.7% a year earlier.

One piece of bad news for employers in the Fed data is that U.S. workers increasingly see the prospect of earlier retirements — suggesting the pool of available labor could shrink.

The average expected likelihood of working beyond age 62 declined to 47.7% from 48.8% in July 2022, the lowest reading since the start of the series in March 2014 and down by more than a percentage point over the past year. The figure has been declining since Covid hit.

Those data could suggest that older people see the labor market as unappealing, or that the pandemic made more of them think about retirement.

The reservation wage for people whose household income is below $60,000 peaked one year after Covid-19 was declared a pandemic, at about $50,800, and has fallen by more than $3,000 since then — while the figure for higher earners continued to rise.

[Benzino Napaloni]

No me convence, el daño que se ha hecho, y se hace, a miles de familias es
injustificable y más si premias a los que generaron el problema. Desconozco si se pudo hacer de otra manera, pero la que escogieron ha sido injusta, poniendo en situación de vulnerabilidad a miles de personas, familias, sin ninguna opción y con el agravante de tratarse de un buen básico. Desconozco que pasará en el futuro pero mucho, muchísimo, tienen que cambiar las cosas para volver a un 2013, en lo que respecta a precios, rentas del alquiler,  y al uso que se le da a la vivienda.

Tanto, que como dice PPCC no quedó otra que rescatar. Pero al propio sistema, no al ladrillo. Eso fue una consecuencia colateral. Hasta que llegó la "hotelización del inquilinato" el ambiente en el ladrillo era de pesimismo absoluto.

La inercia del sistema es muy pesada. Hay muchas cosas que no son fáciles de cambiar, y lo que de verdad nos ha pesado es la losa del popularcapitalismo. Yo no veo tanto la intencionalidad como la mera actitud de parchear la situación.

Con consecuencias muy dañinas, eso nadie lo duda.

Pero ahora empieza a no haber más narices. ¿No bajas el precio del "artefacto"? Pues te quedas sin trabajadores. Ya está sucediendo, llevamos meses comentándolo por aquí. Empezó en Ibiza pero ya sucede también en Mallorca, Málaga... Ofertas de trabajo que se acaban rechazando porque con todo lo demás acordado, falla buscar alojamiento. Muchas veces hemos dicho en el foro que una confluencia de intereses individuales no constituye un interés colectivo. Y eso es justo lo que está pasando con los pisitos. "No me cuentes tu vida y paga lo que pido, o vete". Y ya llegamos al punto de que lo que se pide no lo van a ver ni de la nómina de un funcionario.

El creciente cabreo general revela que no estamos muy lejos de un crac, si es que no estamos ya en él. Crac de acabarse el oxígeno de aguantar la respiración, los precios vendrán después.

[Cadavre Exquis]

No podemos seguir así
https://www.abc.es/economia/habitacion-630-euros-alquiler-pisos-compartidos-dispara-20230828201216-nt.html

Estamos objetivamente peor que en 2007. Y es como si los caseros se hubieran organizado para llevar esto al delirio, y en plan desafiante además. Que se que no es así de iure, pero si de facto. ¿Cuanto se puede aguantar así?

Actualizo: el caso que comenté ayer, de Torrelavega. 590 euros al mes - es una planta de una casa de pueblo que se arregló para que fuera independiente- en un descampado lleno de purines y con un campamento de chabolas al lado - problemas de borracheras y ruido -, a tres km y medio d Torrelavega..

Insisto, esto no puede seguir asi

https://www.abc.es/economia/habitacion-630-euros-alquiler-pisos-compartidos-dispara-20230828201216-nt.html

https://www.abc.es/economia/teletrabajo-dispara-compra-casas-extranjeros-puede-tener-20230828043708-nt.html

Saludos.

P.D.

En relación con la segunda noticia –la que expone el asunto del teletrabajo y la compra de casas por parte de extranjeros– Santiano Niño Becerra ha publicado hoy este tweet:

https://twitter.com/sninobecerra/status/1696138852052652441

[Cadavre Exquis]

Ni pensiones...

https://www.diariovasco.com/economia/pensiones/jubilados-vascos-pensiones-20230828193553-nt.html

... ni pisitos...

https://www.diariovasco.com/economia/mercados/invertir-superar-nueva-era-altos-tipos-interes-20230828001308-ntrc.html

Saludos.

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-28/eu-s-michel-calls-for-bloc-to-be-ready-for-new-members-by-2030

Michel Calls for EU to Be Ready for New Members by 2030

Macron floats idea of ‘multi-speed’ Europe for aspirants
Russia’s war in Ukraine added urgency to enlargement debate

European Council President Charles Michel proposed setting a target date for the bloc to get serious about admitting new members as Ukraine and other applicants press to rejuvenate the stalled enlargement debate.

“I believe we must be ready — on both sides — by 2030 to enlarge,” he said Monday at the Bled Strategic Forum in Slovenia, adding that EU leaders will discuss the topic at their next summits.

Michel said the leaders will take a stand on opening formal accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova, and that they will also reengage on Bosnia’s prospects.

Last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy attended a dinner with Western Balkan leaders in Athens where enlargement was the prime topic. The debate has become increasingly urgent as the EU seeks to blunt Russia’s efforts to wield influence in the region, but it also remains quite sensitive inside the bloc, because of the complicated histories of the applicants and because it will entail significant budgetary tradeoffs.

“Let’s be honest, we have sometimes used — maybe we have abused — the lack of progress of future member states to avoid facing our own homework, our own preparedness,” he added. “We must now take a serious look at the EU’s capacity to absorb new members.”

Michel said leaders will discuss whether to allow applicants to begin participating in selecting EU meetings after they complete specific requirements toward membership.

Dritan Abazovic, the prime minister of Montenegro, criticized Michel’s targets, saying, “2030 for us, for Montenegro, is too far.” He added that integrating Western Balkan countries is a question of security and future economic development.

Earlier Monday, French President Emmanuel Macron said that in the next few months, the EU “will go through a double-sided movement” with “surely, institutional changes” for both deeper integration and enlargement, “especially toward the Western Balkans.”

“The risk would be to do what we’ve done before: that is, to think about the enlargement process without thinking the reform through. I can easily testify that that’s it’s hard enough for a Europe with 27 members to make progress on essential topics — and it won’t get any easier with 32 or 35 members, to say the least.”

He added that one possibility was a “multi-speed” Europe, with varying partnerships between different groups of members.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista/20230828/page/3/textview

El poder de quien domine las tierras raras

https://www.eleconomista.es/tecnologia/noticias/12404737/08/23/la-guerra-tecnologica-sube-de-nivel-china-eeuu-y-europa-empiezan-a-levantar-muros-en-la-cadena-mundial-de-chips-.html

Saludos.

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/15eef330-54f8-48ef-8a3d-1774e7928957

Romania to bolster Ukraine export corridor despite Russian attacks

Bucharest seeks to double capacity of alternative shipping route through Danube river, says prime minister

Romania will double the capacity of its main Black sea port and Danube shipping lanes within two months to help Ukraine ship its grain out of Russia’s reach, according to the country’s prime minister.

Marcel Ciolacu told the Financial Times his plan would be implemented irrespective of Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports on the other side of the Danube river on the border with Romania.

“Ukraine will have about 40mn tons of grain for export in 2023,” Ciolacu said. “In order to [facilitate] that, we have increased the capacity both in Constanța harbour and the pathways leading to Constanța harbour to make this happen. We mobilised to the best that we could.”

The Romanian pledge to boost the shipping corridor by dredging the Danube and expanding ports’ infrastructure comes after Russia backed out of an agreement allowing Ukrainian grain to reach global markets through the Black Sea. Moscow has also threatened commercial vessels leaving Ukrainian ports, prompting a rerouting of exports via the Danube.

“We have learned our lessons on Russia well,” Ciolacu said. “We are at zero dependency on Russian energy or resources. Our support to Ukraine is unconditional.”

In his first interview with international media since becoming prime minister in June, Ciolacu said Bucharest would not be intimidated by Moscow and expressed confidence that his country’s Nato membership would deter Russia from any direct hostilities.

“There is no security risk for Romania at this moment,” he said.

The increased capacity of the Black Sea port of Constanța and other routes will allow Ukrainian grain exports to double to 4mn tonnes a month, he said. “Investments are under way in the Sulina channel,” he added, referring to Romania’s main deepwater shipping lane through the Danube delta.

Despite repeated Russian attacks on Ukraine’s grain silos in the ports of Izmail and Reni along the Danube river, he said there were “solutions” — for instance by allowing ships to transit by night from October and increasing freight traffic to a minimum of 14 vessels a day. Doubling the size of the barges as well “means Ukraine won’t have to use grain warehouses as much”, he said.

Shipping industry figures told the FT the plan was feasible.

Romania will also open more road border crossing points and improve its rail infrastructure at stations bordering Ukraine to accelerate the transfer of cargo, Ciolacu added.

Ciolacu will meet EU officials in Brussels this week to discuss measures to contain the funding gap. He said “there is no way” the EU would reduce funding to Romania to force more austerity on Bucharest.

“We have had to reorganise the budget to aid the Ukraine shipments,” Ciolacu said, adding he would try to get an EU nod to account for war-related items outside the deficit calculations. “These were unforeseen expenses . . . so we will need an exemption from the fiscal code.”

Russia’s war in Ukraine has also posed security risks to Romania’s close ally Moldova, whose EU application Bucharest supports wholeheartedly, Ciolacu said. “Moldova is by far the most vulnerable state in Europe.”

His Hungarian counterpart, Viktor Orbán, has used his veto in the EU and Nato to hold up various membership applications, in a bid to force Brussels to release frozen EU funds, Ciolacu said.

“[Hungarians] speculate with this,” he said, adding it was wrong to politicise such strategic matters.

“There is a war between a dictator and the free world . . . one that Europe cannot afford to lose.”

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/opinion/noticias/12417235/08/23/el-desastroso-control-de-poblacion-que-china-impulsa-en-las-ultimas-decadas-.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista/20230828/page/23/textview

Pekín asume el liderazgo regional sobre Afganistán

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista/20230828/page/2/textview

El inmoibilario chino afecta a su economía

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12418898/08/23/la-deuda-comercial-de-las-pymes-se-duplica-con-respecto-al-ano-pasado.html

Saludos.

[Centinela]

— El presidente de los futbolistas españoles cesa por machista no por zafio; ser zafio funciona; la educación no sirve para nada.

Esta mentira no está tan clara: por zafio, por machista repugnante... y por idiota. (Sobre todo por idiota. No se puede pasar por encima de las "chicas" justo cuando está mirando medio planeta.)

Yo coincido con Asustadísimos, es por zafio y no por machista. Mi madre lo definiría como rústico (ella es el ser más elegante que he conocido), recién salido de las cavernas. Sin la más mínima educación de base. Está bien que eliminen a este tipo de personajes que tanto dolor han causado, hay que evolucionar y rápidito.

Totalmente de acuerdo con la definición de tu madre y que vale para describir a este señor. Sus comportamientos machistas derivan de su falta de modales y no son originarios. Es decir hace lo del pico, al igual que lo de tocarse los X por rústico (bruto).

Pues yo no coincido. Lo de zafio es lo de menos, en mi opinión. Yo estoy más en esta línea:

El trofeo de Rubiales
https://elpais.com/opinion/2023-08-28/el-trofeo-de-rubiales.html
El gesto del presidente de la federación, lejos de ser incontrolado, fue impositivo y degradante, como lo son todos los gestos que invaden la intimidad del otro, propios de quien solo quiere pillar cacho. Pero no de la boca, sino de la gloria.

Que un personaje tan zafio haya llegado a donde ha llegado (éste no debería haber pasado de lateral chungo de equipos chungos) dice mucho de la deriva moral en la que estamos.
Y para colmo que le esté sirviendo a la farándula femiloca para envenenar aún más las relaciones entre hombres y mujeres ya ni te cuento lo "chungo" que es.
(y he de decir que dijo 3 ó 4 verdades en su discurso, pero sospecho que servirá para desacreditar algo totalmente razonable que no es otra cosa que precisamente eso, la necesidad de borrar del mapa una de las ideítas, el feminismo como herramienta ideológica para generar conflictos y olvidar la contradicción fundamental.

(y sí,  Ana Botín es el paradigma de ese engaño).

A mí lo que me sorprende es que con la de asuntos turbios que tiene en sus espaldas y se le han consentido todas por parte de todo el mundo, lo que ha causado su caída sea esto. Aquí sí que veo que cualquier comportamiento contra la religión LGTBIQ+ conlleva la pena de ostracismo.

Su comportamiento es de impresentable y gañan de pueblo sí, y tendrá que apechugar con lo que le toque, pero veo más grave las muchas corruptelas que ha hecho en su mandato como presidente de la RFEF (los audios con Piqué, llevarse la final aquella a Arabia Saudí creo recordar, sueldazo opaco, viajes con cargo a la RFEF, los whatssaps con Pedro Sanchez ...). Mi opinión es que ha robado a manos llenas (habrá mucho más que no sabemos), todo el mundo lo sabía y lo consentía, pero lo del beso es no se le puede perdonar, por ahí sí que no.

[sudden and sharp]

Sin pruebas, no es lo mismo.