PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Verano 2023

[sudden and sharp]

En un rato empieza el verano. Venimos de:

PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Otoño 2011

PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Invierno 2012

PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Primavera 2012

PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Verano 2012

PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Otoño 2012

PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Invierno 2013

PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Primavera 2013

PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Verano 2013

PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Otoño 2013

PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - INVIERNO 2014

PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - PRIMAVERA 2014

PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - VERANO 2014

PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - VERANO 2014

PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Invierno 2014/2015

PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Primavera 2015

PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - verano 2015

PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Otoño 2015

PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Invierno 2016

PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos-Primavera 2016

PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Verano 2016

PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Otoño 2016

PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Invierno 2017

PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Primavera 2017

PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Verano 2017

PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos Otoño 2017

PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos Invierno 2018

PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos Primavera 2018

PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos Verano 2018

PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos Otoño 2018

PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos Invierno 2018-2019

PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos Primavera 2019

PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos Verano 2019

PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Otoño 2019

PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Invierno 2019

PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Primavera 2020

PPCC. PIsitófilos Creditófagos. Verano 2020

PPCC. PIsitófilos Creditófagos. Otoño 2020

PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Invierno 2020/2021

PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - PRiMaVeRa 2021

PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Verano 2021

PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos-Otoño 2021

PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Invierno 2021

PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Primavera 2022

PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Verano 2022

PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Otoño 2022

[PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Invierno 2022 - 2023

PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Primavera 2023

[ Sigan. ]

[sudden and sharp]

España cuenta con 16.000 exportadores regulares más que en 2010 hasta totalizar 55.000
https://cincodias.elpais.com/economia/2023-06-20/espana-cuenta-con-16000-exportadores-regulares-mas-que-en-2010-hasta-totalizar-55000.html
Estados Unidos se convirtió en 2022 en el mayor inversor extranjero en España, seguido de Reino Unido y Alemania

Este aumento de la inversión viene de la mano de la internacionalización de las empresas españolas. España ha experimentado un aumento en el número de empresas con negocios internacionales. Según los últimos datos del Ministerio de Industria, Comercio y Turismo recogidos en el Plan de Acción para la Internacionalización de la Economía Española 2021-2022, la cifra de empresas que exportan regularmente asciende a 55.000. Hace 13 años había 16.000 exportadores menos, es decir, desde 2010 el número de corporaciones internacionalizadas se ha incrementado prácticamente un 30%.

[asustadísimos]

[Las exclusiones de Bolsa de chicharros seminuevos se hacen porque el dueño de prácticamente todas las acciones o participaciones no encuentra primos que le compren sus papelitos, y se quiere quitar de encima, y 'a pedo de puta', a los pocos que los compraron y siguen —los pocos 'manos fuertes' que entraron, hace tiempo que se fueron—. Volvemos a lo de siempre: EN LOS FINALES DE FIESTA, JAMÁS HAY QUE CREERSE NI UNA SOLA OPERACIÓN, NI UNA SOLA.]

[asustadísimos]

[¿Saben que se simulan exportaciones (IVA devengado cero) para obtener devoluciones de las cuotas de IVA soportadas?]

[Lem]

UK core inflation coming hot.


notas varias, de https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/06/21/uk-inflation-rate-mortgages-live-ftse-100-markets-news

Traders predict 50pc chance Bank of England raises rates by half point

Traders think there is a 50pc chance that the Bank of England will raise rates by 0.5 percentage points tomorrow.

They have fully priced in an increase in rates to 6pc by the end of the year.

Traders have also raised bets on further European Central Bank interest-rate hikes after the hotter-than-expected inflation data in the UK bolstered the case for more tightening.

Money markets are fully pricing in a 4pc terminal rate by October, with a quarter-point hike at next month’s meeting seen as almost a done deal, according to swaps tied to policy-meeting dates. The last time such a level was priced was in March.

ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel that officials cannot afford to be complacent about inflation and should not worry about raising borrowing costs too far.

Goldman Sachs, UniCredit and BNP Paribas are among banks that have changed their outlook to forecast a 4pc terminal rate in the wake of the most recent quarter-point hike to 3.5pc.

Gilts hit new 15-year high

The amount the Government pays to borrow has surged after inflation proved more persistent than expected.

The interest rate for two-year gilts peaked at a fresh 15-year high of nearly 5.09pc, increasing by 14 basis points.

Gilts are essentially IOUs issued by the Treasury when it wants to borrow money.

Longer-term 10-year gilts also rose during the morning by nine basis points to 4.43pc.

It came as consumer prices index inflation remained at 8.7pc in May, unchanged from the month before. Experts had expected it to drop to 8.4pc.

NatWest becomes first lender to increase rates after inflation shock

NatWest has become the first lender to confirm it will increase its mortgage rates after today’s shock inflation data.

For new customers, it will increase its rate by 30 basis points on selected two-year and five-year deals for buyers and those remortgaging.

Its switcher rates for existing customers will jump by up to 75 basis points.

Customers will be able to submit applications online for existing deals until 10.30pm this evening.

Bank of England must 'create a recession,' says Hunt adviser

A member of Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s economic advisory council has called for the Bank of England to “create a recession” to curb inflation.

JP Morgan’s Karen Ward told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme there are “certainly signs” that a price-wage spiral is emerging, which the Bank “has to nip in the bud”. She said:

The difficulty for the Bank of England - I mean, no-one envies them their job at the moment - is they have to therefore create a recession.

They have to create uncertainty and frailty, because it’s only when companies feel nervous about the future that they will think ‘Well, maybe I won’t put through that price rise’, or workers, when they’re a little bit less confident about their job, think ‘Oh, I won’t push my boss for that higher pay’.

It’s that weakness in activity which eventually gets rid of inflation.

Ms Ward also said the Bank of England has “been too hesitant” about raising interest rates.

y https://twitter.com/richard_donnell/status/1671486202514374659

@richard_donnell
Stress testing a new ball to kick in mortgage debate - table shows a quick analysis of income to rent v income to afford a 2% loan and the income to pass the stress at 7% - forced buyers to put down more equity or be on higher incomes than needed to afford the 2% rate

(los nuevos stress tests se hacen al 8-8.5%)

[Lem]

no pensé que llegaría a ver algo así en el Torygraph:



https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/house-prices/

[el malo]

UK core inflation coming hot.

@richard_donnell
Stress testing a new ball to kick in mortgage debate - table shows a quick analysis of income to rent v income to afford a 2% loan and the income to pass the stress at 7% - forced buyers to put down more equity or be on higher incomes than needed to afford the 2% rate

(los nuevos stress tests se hacen al 8-8.5%)

Qué carcajada más tonta me acaba de salir con esta tabla. En el hilo anterior ya escribí un post explicando que vivir en Londres ganando menos de £80K era hacer el primo. Es mejor salirte del sistema y vivir de beneficios y chapuzas en negro (total, vas a tener sanidad igual y te acabarán dando una paguita en cuanto te llegue la edad de jubilación o más beneficios cuando empiecen los achaques de la edad). La pensión máxima en este momento no llega a las £900 mensuales.

En una ciudad sin niños y con cada vez menos trabajadores que hagan los trabajos básicos (y no tan básicos, como enfermeros), al ritmo que van los tipos, va a haber que ganar más de £180,000 (casi 210.000€ anuales) para poder permitirse comprar una propiedad en la ciudad. Y ojito que no hablamos de Mónaco o de Singapur, donde el espacio es limitado, hablamos de "Inner London" donde viven más de 3.5 millones de personas y donde hay miles de alternativas (el resto que me perdonen, pero yo no lo considero Londres. Es como considerar que Getafe es parte de Madrid).

Tengo una relación de amor/odio con esta ciudad. Por un lado me encanta, y por el otro espero que se vaya al carajo. La avaricia (de caseros, de dueños de negocios, del gobierno) terminará por destruirnos. Yo por lo menos puedo volver a España, si queda algo a lo que volver.

[el malo]

no pensé que llegaría a ver algo así en el Torygraph:



https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/house-prices/

Anonadado estoy. El Telegraph preparando a los pisitófilos más conservadores para el dolor y el rechinar de dientes (gracias Lem).

Como diría Harry Callahan.. "alégrame el día" 

The Tories must let Britain’s mortgage borrowers (including me) suffer


Britain’s looming mortgage disaster is about to make the energy price crisis look like nothing more than an unpleasant mini-bar bill.

Surprise wage inflation data published this week, showing salaries have risen 7.2pc, highlights how the country’s problem with inflation is proving difficult to shake. Mortgage borrowers are set to pay a high price as a result.

The scale of the problem cannot be understated. More than 3.5 million borrowers are due to remortgage over the next year at considerably higher rates. The average London homeowner will be paying more than £7,000 more a year.

It also poses a dreadful conundrum for the Conservatives who, if homeowners are left to feel the full force of rate rises, will almost certainly lose the next election.

It’s in this context that the Chancellor might be tempted to bail out borrowers. After all, households were sheltered from the true cost of surging energy prices, so why not mortgages?

The Government has helped out in the past. Homeowners benefited from tax relief on mortgage interest repayments during the last crisis of the 1980s and 1990s before the policy was scrapped by Labour’s Gordon Brown.

Lenders were also told to freely offer mortgage “holidays” in the pandemic, sparing borrowers from payments for three to six months, but of course, the interest is added on the loan.

It’s also against everyone’s interests to see large scale repossessions, which would likely trigger a prolonged house price downturn as seen in the 1990s. House prices are sacred in Tory Britain and allowing them to crash would be a disaster.

What’s more, banks are sitting pretty. They are making record profits and still denying savers fair returns on their nest eggs, all whilst relentlessly jacking up mortgage rates.

The Tories have certainly not done borrowers any favours so far. The tax burden is the highest it has been for decades and the madness of the stamp duty holiday in the pandemic served only to push up prices.

But for whatever reason, Britain’s household budgets are still bafflingly resilient. Perhaps it’s those working from home and still sitting on their lockdown savings?

The ever-present nanny state has already cosetted homeowners from the principal driver of inflation, energy bills. And spenders can go some way to shop around food price rises, which have been blamed on keeping inflation so high.

So, if the Government considered our energy bills to be unaffordable and deserving of a bailout, why not mortgage rates?

The answer is that Britain’s borrowers need to be squeezed if inflation is ever to be tamed, and the Tories need to make sure this happens – even if it costs them votes. As John Major said when he was chancellor: “If it isn’t hurting, it isn’t working.”

Jeremy Hunt was tasked with steadying the ship when he was appointed Chancellor back in October after Kwasi Kwarteng’s gung ho mini-Budget terrified the bond markets.

Who would have thought we’d now be facing a worse mortgage crisis under Captain Sensible?

Forget scrapping the 45p tax rate and knocking 1p off income tax, what really worried investors about the mini-Budget was arguably Liz Truss’s two-year blanket commitment to protecting households from expensive energy bills. It is uncosted and populist spending splurges that really upset the markets.

Mr Hunt now has to hold his nerve and let lenders and the Bank of England take the flak for the mortgage disaster about to hit Britain.

The Tories will be damned if they do, damned if they don’t. The right thing to do, however, is to hurt borrowers (which includes myself, by the way) and get inflation under control before all hell breaks loose.

[Benzino Napaloni]

Así se va acercando el caso imaginario que comentabas hace tiempo (no recuerdo ahora si fuiste tú). Un arquitecto de Madrid dejando de poder operar porque sus subordinados, o teletrabajan, o no tienen sueldo para pagar un catre a menos de una hora del estudio.

Luego que si no entendemos de economía porque patatas. Cuando dejas de tener trabajadores -por la razón que sea, falta de población, o que no pueden aceptar un puesto concreto de trabajo porque no les salen las cuentas-, el trabajo se cae.

E inevitablemente el tocho va detrás. En la misma España por lo que cuesta algo decente en las grandes aglomeraciones, se coge casa o incluso unifamiliar fuera. Y con 20.000 habitantes ya hay hospital por ley.


Normal que haya tanta inquina con el teletrabajo, porque la crisis del real estate dejaría la de 2008 como una broma a su lado. Las oficinas de Londres, NY, y Berlín ya lo están sufriendo...

[asustadísimos]

[Me han convocado para un 'almuerzo de trabajo' (familiar-empresarial). Por los temas y por quiénes son los convocados, me he dado cuenta, señoras, señores, que ustedes y yo, muchísimas gracias,...
https://music.youtube.com/watch?v=WX7zEnn2ugI ]

[asustadísimos]

[Reedición del comentario anterior, para precisar que no es un almuerzo de trabajo propiamente dicho, sino de una reunión donde se va a hablar sin límite alguno —parresia total— y que nuestra opinión (la de este impagable blog) es la triunfante. Ya les contaré.]

[Maloserá]

La portada del Telegraph que cuelga Lem es asombrosa. No había visto nada así y llevo en UK un par de décadas.
Y enlaza con el comentario de Asustadísimos. Parafraseando el comentario de  Boris Johnson a Putin, deben perder y deben ser vistos perdiendo.

Un artículo del IFS (institución seria) calculando la pérdida de renta disponible por hogar con las subidas de tipos de interes. En algunos casos del 20%.

https://ifs.org.uk/articles/interest-rate-hikes-could-see-14-million-people-lose-20-their-disposable-income

Este gráfico del artículo es muy bueno, no lo había visto antes en ningún sitio. Mala eleccion de azules parecidos para alquilados y propietarios libres de carga - al principio me pareció raro tanto mayor de 60 alquilado - pero no, el azul algo más oscuro son propietarios sin hipoteca.

[Derby]

https://www.barrons.com/articles/jerome-powell-speech-testimony-today-ed2b122b

Powell Says Inflation Fight Has a Long Way to Go

The Federal Reserve remains narrowly focused on reining in inflation and will likely be raising rates further in the coming months, Chairman Jerome Powell told lawmakers on Wednesday, as he acknowledged that the quest to return the economy to price stability still has “a long way to go.”

In testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, Powell laid out the Fed’s case for holding rates steady in June, arguing that the decision was made because of the combination of the 5 percentage points of rate hikes so far, the “uncertain lags” with which monetary policy affects the economy, and the potential for tighter credit conditions to slow economic activity.

But he made clear more policy tightening is likely to come. “Given how far we’ve come, it may make sense to move rates higher but to do so at a more moderate pace,” Powell said. “That’s really it.”

He said nearly all members of the Fed’s policy committee expect it will be appropriate to raise rates “somewhat further” by the end of the year.”

Powell’s appearance on Capitol Hill, which is mandated as part of a semi-annual report on monetary policy, comes as inflation remains more than double the Fed’s target. At a press conference last week, Powell noted that in the core personal consumption expenditures inflation data in particular, “you’re just not seeing a lot of progress,” even after 10 straight interest-rate increases from the central bank. Core PCE, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, was up 4.7% year over year in April.

“Inflation has moderated somewhat since the middle of last year,” Powell said on Wednesday. “Nonetheless, inflation pressures continue to run high, and the process of getting inflation back down to 2% has a long way to go.”

Following the June meeting, the latest median forecast shows officials now see the federal-funds rate hitting 5.6% by the end of the year, up from an expected 5.1% in March, according to the Fed’s updated Summary of Economic Projections. This implies the Fed could implement two more quarter-point boosts from the current level of 5% to 5.25%.

Powell noted on Wednesday, however, that the Fed will be making decisions “meeting by meeting, based on the totality of incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation, as well as the balance of risks.”

Some lawmakers focused their questioning on Wednesday on the potential fallout from the Fed’s attempts to rein in inflation. Powell acknowledged that slowing down price growth will likely require “a period of below-trend growth and some softening of labor market conditions.” But he also emphasized that the Fed remains committed to its goal of returning inflation to 2% despite the necessary trade-offs, arguing that the long-term payoff will be worth it.

“Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve, and without it, the economy does not work for anyone,” Powell said.

Asked specifically about whether the Fed considers the impact of its policy moves on low- and moderate-income communities, Powell emphasized that those families are the ones who will most benefit from a return to price stability.

“We think that the most important thing we need to do for working people is to get inflation back down under control,” Powell said. “Because it is people at the lower end of the income spectrum who suffer most immediately and worse from high inflation.”

[asustadísimos]

[Planificación Central Capitalista a lo bestia:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/imf-working-global-central-bank-digital-currency-platform-2023-06-19/ ]

[Derby]

https://www.cityam.com/housing-market-a-ticking-time-bomb-as-prices-slow-amid-mortgage-mayhem/

Housing market a ‘ticking time bomb’ as prices slow amid mortgage mayhem

The housing market has slowed amid the mortgage crisis, with experts warning it is like a “ticking time bomb” before it crashes.

This morning’s House Price Index from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show average UK house prices increased 3.5 per cent in the 12 months to April 2023, but this was down from 4.1 per cent in March 2023.

Figures show the average UK house price was £286k in April 2023, up £9,000 on 12 months ago, but £7,000 below the recent peak in September 2022.

“I fear for the property market, and a house price crash seems inevitable at this point,” Jamie Elvin, director at Brighton-based Strive Mortgages, said.

“We have a ticking time bomb where 1.4m borrowers will see an end to their low fixed rates this year, and the impact will be devastating.”

Mortgage meltdown

The UK has been engulfed in a mortgage meltdown since the central bank decided to hike interest rates for the 12 consecutive time in a row, prompting lenders to pull deals on fixed rate mortgages and raise the cost of deals.

“This latest inflation figure is terrible news for us all and sadly will start another mortgage rate crisis for at least the next month,” Gary Bush, financial adviser at MortgageShop.com, said.

“We expect the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee to increase the base rate at lunchtime tomorrow by at least 0.5 per cent, leading mortgage applicants onto very tricky ground.” he added.

Sticky inflation remained high at 8.7 per cent placing increased pressure on the Bank of England to hike interest rates up for the 13th time tomorrow – creating higher rates for borrowers with mortgages.

The move will hit prospective buyers and homeowners looking to reinstate their payment plans the most.

London hit hard by the crunch

The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) aid that London homeowners looking to renegotiate their mortgage this year face a whopping £7,300 rise in annual costs in the wake of high inflation.

The trouble is the situation could get worse before it gets better,” Myron Jobson, senior personal finance analyst, interactive investor, warned.

“Market whispers of significant property price correction in the near future can also give pause to even the most eager of homebuyers. Uncertainty can breed caution, and caution often leads to a decline in mortgage commitments,” he said.

“The mortgage affordability squeeze not only impacts the dreams of aspiring homeowners but also reverberates throughout the housing market.”

He added: “Discouraged by the uphill struggle, aspiring first time buyers have found themselves locked out of homeownership, fuelling in demand in the rental market. This, in turn, places upwards pressure on rental prices, exacerbating the overall affordability crisis.”

Trouble with renting too

Meanwhile, Mayor of London Sadiq Khan has warned that a record rise in London rents could see a quarter of Londoners fall behind on payments.

New City Hall polling out today shows that 30 per cent of London renters are struggling to make ends meet, and 24 per cent are finding it hard to meet rent payments. Additionally, six per cent say they have fallen behind in rent payments in the last six months.

The Mayor is worried this could lead to a sharp rise in homelessness in the capital. The proportion of people renting in London is huge, comprising approximately 2.7m people. This means there are around 650,000 Londoners struggling to pay their rent and 160,000 who have fallen behind on rent payments.

Rents have exceeded an average of more than £2,500, making it harder and harder for many to keep their heads above water.

City Hall analysis also discovered 3,630 households were threatened with homelessness last year in London after receiving a no-fault eviction notice. This was more people than before the pandemic.

The Renters’ Reform Bill introduced by the government has scrapped no-fault eviction, a practice allowing landlords to kick out tenants without having to establish any fault on the part of the tenant. Rising rents and arrears are often behind an eviction of this kind.

But the Bill has yet to become law, so many households in London still risk being evicted.

To tackle this crisis, Khan has called on the Government to implement a two-year rent freeze in the capital and give him the power to introduce rent controls.