PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Verano 2023

[sudden and sharp]

[El PP niega la burbuja popularcapitalista y el cambio estructural. Su oferta 'pactomoncloísta' al PSOE no es 'de estructura', sino 'de coyuntura'. Es 'de gestión', no 'de constitución'. En una trampa saducea. Además, el PP lleva muchos años basando su estrategia en el mero ataque 'ad hominem'. Es una estrategia a la defensiva y perdedora. Si el escenario no es el frankenstein, sino el drácula, la derecha política estará contenta, pero seguirá dale que te pego infundiendo odio, solo que, en vez de con el «Sánchez, Sáanchez, Sáaanchez», con el «herencia, heerencia, heeerencia». Pero la derecha sociológica (mucha hidalguía, pero caldo claro de salarios y pensiones) sufrirá más y la derecha económica tendrá más miedo. Por contra, las izquierdas habrán conseguido su houdini y se retirarán a sus guaridas para ver pasar el cadáver de su enemigo destrozado por un sistema capitalista decidido a no aflojar en su empeño de cambiar de modelo.]

Vale.

( Los hotros también tienen lo suyo...  )

[Derby]

Todo es cuestión de interpretación 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-housing-recession-is-over-real-estate-group-says-as-pending-home-sales-tick-up-for-the-first-time-in-4-months-2d4cce4f

‘The housing recession is over,’ real-estate group says, as pending home sales tick up for the first time in 4 months

‘The recovery has not taken place, but the housing recession is over,’ Lawrence Yun of the National Association of Realtors says

(...) “The recovery has not taken place, but the housing recession is over,” NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said. “The presence of multiple offers implies that housing demand is not being satisfied due to lack of supply.”

The NAR also said it expects rates for 30-year mortgages to average 6.4% this year and to fall to 6% in 2024.

The NAR also expects existing-home sales to fall 12.9% in 2023 from the previous year, to 4.38 million, before recovering in 2024 to a rate of 5.06 million.

The group also expects home prices to hold steady this year, falling only slightly by 0.4% to $384,900, before rising 2.6% next year to $395,000.

“The West — the country’s most expensive region — will see reduced prices, while the more affordable Midwest region is likely to see a small positive increase,” Yun added.

[asustadísimos]

[Las elecciones no las ha ganado el PP. Las han ganado las izquierdas por 600.000 votos. ¡Ojo!]

A falta del voto CERA

[sudden and sharp]

Claro... ¿y qué?






Consenso... en lo esencial. (De una vez por todas.)

[Cadavre Exquis]

China's Jobless Graduate Army Falls Through Cracks in Economy
Posted by msmash on Thursday July 27, 2023 @04:00AM from the closer-look dept.

Record youth unemployment after Beijing clampdown on private sector, FDI slump. From a report:

New graduate Glonee Zhang had high hopes when he landed a job at a lithium battery company in Shenzhen last summer. Now, like more than one in five young people in China, he's out of work. An English major entering a post-COVID working world, Zhang thought "the end of the pandemic would bring a bright future." Six months later, he and half of the firm's intake of 400 new grads were laid off when the company's sales slumped by 10% year-on-year. "Sometimes I feel my soul is being torn apart," said a downbeat Zhang, getting by in the meantime doing odd jobs.

Caught between a long-running regulatory crackdown by Beijing on private enterprise, and a slide in hiring by foreign firms in the country, young people now face a record jobless rate of 21.3%. Since the official number only includes people actively seeking work, some economists say the percentage of young people not in employment, education or training could be significantly higher. While the pandemic may have gone, its departure has unmasked a growing structural problem for President Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The world's second-biggest economy is producing twice the number of graduates it did 10 years ago, with nearly 12 million this year - but not the jobs they're qualified to do.

"Over the years, China has expanded universities, but China is still a largely manufacturing [and services] based economy," Robin Xing, chief China economist at Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong, told Nikkei Asia. "This is structural, because the economy itself is big, it's gradually changing. But it takes time for China to become a more advanced economy like Japan, South Korea and the U.S., which have more professional services dominating job creation." In December 2019, before COVID struck, the youth jobless rate was 12.2%. Graduates like Zhang are now forced to consider continuing in higher education or trying for highly competitive but stable government jobs for which they are overqualified. Studying or working overseas is also an option for some.

Saludos.

[asustadísimos]

[Leemos en Deia, el periódico del PNV:
https://www.deia.eus/elecciones-generales/2023/07/27/ortuzar-pnv-arruinado-posibilidades-feijoo-7094842.html

«El presidente del EBB del PNV, Andoni Ortuzar, ha afirmado que su partido es el que "ha arruinado" la posibilidad de que el presidente del PP, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, haya podido "ir a una investidura directa" como presidente del Gobierno y llegar a la Moncloa. En la conversación que mantuvieron a principios de semana, Ortuzar comunicó al líder del PP que el PNV es "incompatible" con Vox, y que el programa que había defendido en campaña era contrapuesto al de los jeltzales».

Por tanto, la hipotética 'Unternehmen Eiche' tendría tres premisas:
— investidura indirecta, a poder ser mediante abstención o casi;
— Vox, sin cargos en el Gobierno; y
— 'deselectoralización' del programa de Gobierno, para que, ¡ojo!, vuelva a ser del gusto de los 'jeltzales' (partidarios del 'JEL', Jaungoikua Eta Lagizara, Dios y la ley vieja).

Recordemos que Santiago Abascal es de Bilbao.

Dirán que es el 'lauburu', pero es una esvástica de 1933, y de las malas, las levógiras.

En nuestro comentario
https://www.transicionestructural.net/index.php?topic=2594.msg217585#msg217585
se lee: «Ruego que demos por hecha la continuidad del Gobierno de coalición del PSOE e IU... Ruego, pues, que pongamos nuestra mente en qué va a pasar hasta la suelta». A nuestros efectos, da igual que la primera frase sea: «Ruego que demos por hecho un Gobierno del PP en solitario...».

A nosotros, los estructuraltransicionistas, nos importa poco cómo se reparte la ira del pueblo. El tren va a ir por sus vías a la velocidad que marque el tandem FMI-BCE. Eso es lo principal. Que haya mal ambiente dentro de los vagones es secundario.

Si se confirmara el escenario draculino, La Atea solo tendría que esperar el 'a ways to go' para completar su bodrio: alas de murciélago, alacranes y escarabajos, lenguas de mastín, piel de puercoespín, sacrílegas manos de infame judío e infectas entrañas de macho cabrío, quijada de turco, labios de tártaro y un donnadie con lumbago.]

[Asdrúbal el Bello]

No entiendo a asustadísimos.

El problema financiero-pisitofilo-fiscal es el menor de nuestros problemas. Es un problema enquistado que cruzará generaciones, como lo fue la reforma agraria, que se solucionará por sí sólo por evolución demográfica y económica, y que está plenamente pilotado (como muy bien explica asustadísimos, y todos los que mandan algo aceptan esperanzados o angustiados) por la Comisión Europea Y el BCE.

Los problemas de verdad, los que están realmente vivos y los que nos deberían preocupar son de naturaleza política. Y son problemas especialmente peligrosos porque se pueden realimentar con el problema del párrafo anterior y descontrolarse, llevándonos a una situación a la yugoslava. Porque son males hispanos endémicos que no se solucionarán. Estarán siempre ahí.

1. El caudillismo populista. Muchos líderes políticos en España se han envenenado con la vieja idea española de que sólo un caudillo puede guiar a la nación/pueblo/ciudadanía. Y eso afecta a todos los partidos, está creando liderazgos personalistas carismáticos, y puede arrasar con cualquier intento de defender las instituciones. La constitución es un freno, pero ya veremos si la labor de zapa del trono y la corona sigue. Pedro lleva ventaja, pero Isabel, Santi y hasta Roberto miran de soslayo. La idea de una república presidencialista a lo hispanoamericano, el sueño de Pablo, siempre estará ahí.

2. El vaciamiento de las grandes instituciones clásicas de control y equilibrio de la administración española van cayendo una tras otra, la última el Constitucional, y las próximas el Supremo y el Tribunal de Cuentas. Para los partidos la independencia de poderes es un plus, y si la Derecha política (el PP, y antes UCD y el franquismo) dio por hecho que un trampantojo de independencia institucional bastaba para maquillar la conexión directa entre gobierno, administración pública y empresas, ahora parece que la Izquierda quiere hacer bandera y exhibición de esa toma de control. Reflejos de la teoría leninista del control del poder, supongo, que lo que se lee de juventud se recuerda siempre.

3. La balcanización. Cada vez más inevitable. Tras los estropicios de 2017-2018, que tanto daño hicieron a Cataluña y sobre todo a Barcelona, no creo que los maximalismos de Puchimón vayan muy lejos, y hasta HB está descubriendo los encantos de moquetas y mesas de despacho. El futuro se entrevé entre la niebla: la confederalización de España. Como dice Margallo, fluir competencias a gran escala hacia las comunidades autónomas aprovechando el 150.2 (El Estado podrá transferir o delegar en las Comunidades Autónomas, mediante ley orgánica, facultades correspondientes a materia de titularidad estatal que por su propia naturaleza sean susceptibles de transferencia o delegación.) A medio plazo, convertir las comunidades autónomas en Estados con plena autonomía fiscal, control de sus relaciones con la Comisión Europea, y un control judicial que cortocircuite al Supremo y al Constitucional, para llegar directamente al TJUE. Madrit que se preocupe de Defensa, y Gibraltar, Ceuta y Melilla... ¿ a quién le preocupa?. En algún momento alguien le explicará a Buxadé, Espinosa y Garriga qué implicó exactamente la derogación de Roe vs Wade en 2022, y que ellos no pueden 'derogar' la ley del aborto o imponer la religión como asignatura, y empezarán a pensar que igual en Murcia se podría hacer algo con un poco de imaginación, y convertir el sureste en la nueva Jerusalén.

En fin. Que todo terminará tomando forma. Eso sí, cuidado. Hablamos de España.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/6Hz5xvMtNbA

[Derby]

Del calentamiento global a la ebullición global (global boiling)... o en español será hervor global 

https://www.ft.com/content/657b50da-9a75-46b7-bf7c-020838f4f0a6

UN head warns of ‘global boiling’ as July set to be hottest month ever

EU climate change body says it is ‘more probable than not’ temperatures will reach new highs in next few months



The world faces a new era of “global boiling”, the head of the UN has warned, as scientific forecasts showed that July is expected to be the hottest month ever recorded.

“The era of global warming has ended; the era of global boiling has arrived,” António Guterres, UN secretary-general, said on Thursday.

The global average temperature this month has at times been about 1.5C higher than it was before human-induced warming set in, according to the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service. The first three weeks of July were the warmest such stretch on record, with the month now “extremely likely” to be the hottest ever, it said.

The hottest single day ever recorded was July 6, while the global mean temperature temporarily exceeded 1.5C above pre-industrial levels during the first and third week of the month, the group said.(...)

[Derby]

Creo que se analiza desde una óptica muy occidental, sobre todo desde un anhelo popularcapitalista ...ya veremos a dónde lleva esa declaración de que oferta y demanda en el mercado inmobiliario ha sufrido "cambios fundamentales".

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-27/china-urges-mortgage-easing-to-stabilize-ailing-property-market

Top China Housing Official Urges Fresh Real Estate Rescue Effort

    *China’s housing minister met with developers amid downturn
    *Beijing has pressed lenders to help builders complete projects

China’s top housing official stepped up pressure on financial regulators and lenders to strengthen efforts to revive the country’s ailing property sector.

In a recent meeting with property developers and builders, Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development Ni Hong called for homebuyers who had paid off previous mortgages to be considered as first-time purchasers, the official Xinhua news agency reported Thursday. Up to now, buyers who have a mortgage history but don’t currently own a property are subject to higher down-payment rules.

The call is the latest in a series of efforts by authorities to stabilize the nation’s property market, a key component of the world’s second-largest economy. China’s real estate crisis is stifling its recovery, fueling expectations for the government to take more steps to revive demand.

Home sales resumed declines in June following a brief rebound earlier this year, adding to pressure on debt-laden developers and reducing demand for resources such as iron ore.

The housing minister also called for further measures, such as relaxing down-payment rules and reducing mortgage rates for first-home purchasers, according to Xinhua. Currently, purchasers of a second home are subject to more restrictive borrowing limits.

The ball is now in the court of the banking sector. Earlier this month, financial regulators already stepped up pressure on banks to ease terms for property companies by encouraging negotiations to extend outstanding loans. The People’s Bank of China and National Financial Regulatory Administration said in a joint statement July 10 that the aim was to ensure the delivery of homes under construction.

Bloomberg News reported last week that Chinese authorities were considering easing homebuying restrictions in the nation’s biggest cities — potentially removing a hurdle that has curbed demand in Beijing and Shanghai for years.

Ni’s meeting with developers came after China’s top leaders signaled they would ease property policies. An official readout of a meeting of the Communist Party’s Politburo, a top decision-making body, omitted President Xi Jinping’s long-used slogan “housing is for living, not for speculation” — underscoring a deeper shift toward supporting the property market.

The government “strongly” supports home purchases to meet essential dwelling demand and needs for better housing, Ni told the executives from eight state-owned and private-sector construction firms. He also called for tax and fee relief for housing upgrades and replacement.

Top leaders at the Politburo meeting acknowledged that demand and supply in the housing market had seen “fundamental changes,” while economists have tipped real estate as the sector in greatest need of aid. Recent data suggest the property market — which along with related industries accounts for about 20% of the economy — is in decline again after a short-lived rebound.

Stabilizing the two pillars of the construction industry specifically and the real estate sector more broadly plays an important role in promoting economic recovery, Ni stressed to the companies.

“The government seems to be preparing for further policy relaxation,” said Liu Yuan, vice president for property research at Centaline Group. “But we have yet to see any effective measure in place, and that’s why market sentiment is still depressed.”



While China has reduced benchmark rates and pushed average mortgage rates to a record low, most Chinese households haven’t seen the benefit, as banks won’t reprice existing loans until the beginning of next year.

The policy push, however, is likely to weigh on earnings at banks already struggling with shrinking margins and tepid loan demand.

Some Wall Street analysts are also wary of growing risks associated with the debt-laden local government financing vehicles, with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts saying the lenders’ exposure to LGFVs could weaken capital positions and lead to lower dividend payouts.

[Derby]

Una locura...pero es el mercado, amigos.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2023/07/25/georgetown-wall-allan-berger-sale-real-estate-dc/

A fixer-upper in Georgetown is on sale for $50,000. It’s a wall.

‘It’s like crumbling,’ said Robert Morris, a real estate agent selling the wall on behalf of its owner, Allan Berger



The listing seemed too good to be true.

A property in Georgetown, where houses sell for millions, popped up online for just $50,000.

It had a prime location, right by trendy shops and popular restaurants, and was a 10-minute walk to the riverfront. “The opportunities are limitless,” the description read.

But the property was not a home. It was not a plot of land on which someone could one day build their dream house. It was just a brick wall.

“It’s, like, crumbling,” said Robert Morris, a real estate agent selling the wall on behalf of its owner, Allan Berger.

As home prices across the region have ballooned over the past several years, the decrepit wall with a $50,000 price tag quickly became a main character on D.C. social media.

The listing had been online for just days before it morphed into both a punchline and a lamentation.

“Not me looking at this thinking ayyyy that’s cheap,” one user commented on Instagram. Another wrote: “This seems like a cruel concocted boomer prank to excite us poor millennials into thinking we can *actually* afford something and then crush our dreams with ‘endless possibilities.’ ”

To the neighbors, this wall is far from a joke. Instead, records show it’s been the subject of at least $1,600 in fines for infractions, which Berger denied, and an Office of Administrative Hearings case.

At the center of the dispute is the fact that the wall owned by Allan Berger is attached to a home.

What started as a cordial relationship between Berger, 64, and the adjacent homeowner, Daniela Walls, has devolved. Walls hired an attorney and says the wall’s deteriorating structural integrity directly impacts her house. Berger accused the woman of stabbing him in the back.

As one neighbor put it: “I know that wall has been a problem.”

‘See, I own that’

When Berger called Morris about listing the wall for sale, the real estate agent was confused. After almost 20 years in the business, and closing on more than 900 properties in the D.C. area, he had never heard of something like this.

“What can you do with the freakin’ wall?” he asked.

Berger told him a story: His father and a friend went to a tax auction some time during Berger’s childhood, saw a wall for sale and his father thought: “Ah great, I could say I own property in Georgetown.”

Deed records show a buyer purchased the wall in the 1960s for $2.14 and later sold it to Berger’s father. Whatever the wall had once been attached to was gone. (Some believe it was once part of a historic hotel.) After his father’s death, Berger said, the wall eventually landed with him.

Until now, Berger said he was interested in keeping the wall, which faces a parking lot, because it reminded him of his dad’s sense of humor. Plus, he enjoyed showing it off.

“You can go there,” he said, “take a girl out on a date, go walk around and say, ‘See, I own that.’”(...)

[Benzino Napaloni]

https://twitter.com/david_bonilla/status/1684494837066727424

Si hasta McKinsey dice que la demanda de oficinas no va a dejar de caer, no sé Jose Ramón... a lo mejor no es una buena idea hacer volver a la gente a la tuya porque hayas oido que una empresa en Silicon Valley —que paga 7 veces más que tú— lo va a hacer.

Empty spaces and hybrid places: The pandemic’s lasting impact on real estate

 

[Derby]

https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1684598040982618112

@NewsLambert Morgan Stanley: Residential housing is the world's largest asset class and a central driver of monetary policy and the business cycle

[asustadísimos]

[El compañero 'Asdrúbal el Bello' ha posteado un cuadro de Sorolla en el que sale 'mi' asiento en la plaza de Toros de la Mestranza de Sevilla durante los 4 años que estuve abonado a él. No entiendo por qué esa imagen representa, según él, la anglofilia.

Al compañero le preocupa la Nación española. Permítaseme decir que la Nación española es un problema resuelto el día 12 de junio de 1985.

La disolución de la UE es un mito estúpido.

Y la tan cacareada balcanización de España es un mito politiquero. Solo se trata de problemas técnicos de política fiscal: la distribución óptima de ingresos y gastos entre los cinco escalones administrativos (local, regional, estatal, supraestatal y mundial).

Se ve bien con la política monetaria, la otra cara de la política financiera: solo funciona si se sitúa en el escalón supraestatal. También se ve con la recogida de basura ordinaria: solo funciona si se sitúa en el nivel local. En términos negativos se ve mejor. En ninguna administración pública local de ningún país del mundo jamás se situará la gran obra pública hidráulica o la aduana.

El nacionalismo periférico solo es la ideología de acompañamiento de la expansión presupuestaria de las regiones. Una vez que se llega al diseño óptimo, la ideología decae.]

[Cadavre Exquis]

Pregunto:
¿Cómo se matan las expectativas sin matar a quienes las sostienen?
Hablo de "matar" en sentido figurado.
Tomemos como ejemplo la infografía del centro de Manhattan del otro día (perfectos edificios vacíos). Traslademos a cualquier ciudad española.
 
Si nos ponemos estrictos, se pretende resolver un problema gestado durante 40 años en apenas 4 trimestres (ver ticket). Es improvisación barata.
El PLAN era (¿es?) otro: sostenerlo sine-die.
Quienes van a trazar las líneas centrales de la estrategia planificadora, simplemente van a INSTITUCIONALIZAR (hacer ley) con sus precios de catálogo.
Ya lo están haciendo y todavía ni hemos empezado.

https://www.vozpopuli.com/economia_y_finanzas/cataluna-lanza-control-alquiler-margen-ley-vivienda-psoe.html

¿Quién sabe? Lo curioso del pisito es que es todo legal. La avaricia no es delito. (Es pecado... "Largo me lo fiais...", que decían don Juan.)

DON PEDRO   
Pues vete con Dios, y advierte
que hay castigo, infierno y muerte.    
DON JUAN   
¿Tan largo me lo fiáis...?

https://www.cervantesvirtual.com/obra-visor/tan-largo-me-lo-fiais--0/html/ff028c0c-82b1-11df-acc7-002185ce6064_2.html

https://www.eleconomista.es/podcasts/noticias/11254953/06/21/El-purgatorio-un-infierno-temporal-que-se-invento-la-iglesia-para-los-banqueros.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/opinion/noticias/12388104/07/23/la-fed-y-el-bce-impulsan-las-bolsas.html

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista/20230728/page/21/textview

Lagarde evita comprometerse a subir los tipos en la reunión de septiembre

Saludos.