PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Otoño 2023

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/vivienda-inmobiliario/noticias/12462743/09/23/la-revolucion-del-lujo-los-mexicanos-se-imponen-en-el-barrio-de-salamanca-de-madrid.html

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista/20230928/page/20/textview

Las viviendas del futuro serán de madera

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista/20230928/page/21/textview

¿Es un buen momento para comprar vivienda?

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista/20230928/page/24/textview

Las empresas pagan más por edificios con criterios de ESG

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista/20230928/page/26/textview

¿Cómo se valora una plaza de toros o una mina?

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista/20230928/page/28/textview

Residencias universitarias, alineadas con la demanda joven

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista/20230928/page/29/textview

Vivir en un entorno único, gracias a Espacio Suits

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista/20230928/page/30/textview

Freno a la subida desorbitada de los costes de construcción

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/podcasts/noticias/12144848/02/23/El-hombre-que-se-hizo-rico-vendiendo-piedras-como-si-fueran-mascotas.html

Saludos.

[Derby]

https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-september-27th-2023/

China: Here is a look at China’s top 25 real estate companies.

https://www.reuters.com/graphics/CHINA-PROPERTY/SCALE/znpnzjdqapl/

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/9153d235-b28c-43a7-9ffe-08d0c14546ce

Evergrande shares suspended after reports founder under surveillance

Shares in Evergrande were suspended in Hong Kong on Thursday, days after the developer said its restructuring plan could not proceed.

Neither the company nor the exchange provided any explanation for the halt, which also followed a Bloomberg report on Wednesday that the company’s chair Hui Ka Yan was under police surveillance.

Evergrande’s shares resumed trading last month as the company appeared to near a restructuring agreement with international creditors almost two years after its default fuelled a property sector liquidity crisis in China.

The developer said over the weekend that an official investigation meant it could not issue new notes, preventing the plan from going ahead.

Evergrande did not immediately respond to a request to comment on the Bloomberg report.

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/42968686-926c-4a32-8868-494f891d0e26

Fed’s ‘higher for longer’ message hits US stocks and bonds

Treasuries and Wall Street shares on course for worst month of 2023

US stocks and government bonds are on course for their worst month of the year as investors respond to the Federal Reserve’s message that interest rates are set to stay higher for longer than previously thought.

Wall Street’s benchmark S&P 500 stock index has fallen more than 5 per cent in September — dragging it towards its first quarterly loss in 12 months. 

A retreat in the US bond market also accelerated last week after the Fed signalled it would cut rates much more slowly next year and in 2025 than investors had been pricing in.

The yield on 10-year Treasuries, which rises when prices fall, on Wednesday hit its highest level since 2007 and is on track for the biggest monthly jump in a year.

“The penny [is] dropping that actually higher for longer means higher for longer,” said Mark Dowding, chief investment officer at RBC BlueBay Fixed Income. “That realisation is the thing that’s been hurting sentiment.”

At the beginning of the month, traders in the futures market were betting that interest rates would be about 4.2 per cent by the end of 2024. Now they are betting on rates of 4.8 per cent by that time.

“The market has been consistently wrong about Fed policy this year,” said Kevin Gordon, senior investment strategist at Charles Schwab. “For a good chunk of the year the market expectation was it would be cutting aggressively this year . . . now there’s an embrace of ‘maybe [the Fed] actually means it’.”

Expectations of a prolonged period of high rates have hit equities because of the impact of higher bond yields on investors’ quest for returns, as well as the potential effect on the real economy.
(...)

[Lem]

UK Homeowners Say Jump in Interest Rates Will Force More to Sell

- Soaring interest rates are straining mortgage holders
- Analysts anticipate house price declines will accellerate

Almost a quarter of British mortgage holders are considering selling up after the surge in borrowing costs, threatening to pile pressure on the struggling housing market.

Just under a 10th of mortgage holders have already sold and moved to a cheaper property in response to the surge in interest rates, according to a survey released Thursday by KPMG. However, a further 22% are considering moving to a cheaper home as they refinance loans at at much higher costs.

The finding is one of the first to suggest there will be a wave of people forced to sell properties they can no longer afford after the Bank of England pushed its benchmark lending rate to the highest since 2008. It adds to concerns that a relatively modest drop in house prices so far has further to run.

While interest rates on home loans have retreated from a 15-year high, borrowing rates on new mortgages are still almost triple their level in early 2022, Bank of England data shows.

UK Mortgage Holders Are Struggling With Higher Interest Rates
Measures taken by mortgage holders facing higher borrowing rates



“This higher interest rate environment is causing between 10% to 20% of mortgage holders that KPMG surveyed to take significant steps to manage these higher costs,” said Linda Ellett, UK head of consumer markets of retail and leisure for KPMG. “Inevitably, increased household budget and savings being used to pay the mortgage, or higher rent cost, will continue to lead to less money being spent elsewhere within the economy by consumers.”

In a bid to reduce monthly loan repayments, almost a fifth have used savings to reduce their mortgage balance, 16% have switched to an interest-only mortgage and 12% have extended their loan term.

Data from Nationwide shows that house prices slipped back 5.3% in the 12 months to August, the biggest annual fall since 2009. However, economists are expecting the house price slump to continue in the coming months.

[Lem]

UK home sellers increase discounts to secure deals, Zoopla data shows

Reductions rose in September to 4.2% of original asking price, the highest level since early 2019

UK house sellers are increasingly cutting prices to secure deals even as the normally busy autumn selling season gets under way, according to data from property platform Zoopla.

Discounts have increased to 4.2 per cent from the original asking price over the past four weeks, representing an average of £12,125, the highest level since March 2019.

The evidence that more sellers are cracking on pricing comes a week after the Bank of England paused its long series of interest rate increases.

Stable borrowing costs will be a relief to the property market, but analysts said the likelihood that rates would stay high for a prolonged period meant further falls in house prices would be required before market activity recovered.

“I am getting quite a lot of price reductions sent through to me every day,” said Robin Thomas, a consultant at buying agency Recoco Property Search, in the south-west of England. “There is a mismatch between what sellers expect to achieve . . . and what buyers are prepared to pay.”

Mortgage lenders cut their rates over the summer, easing the affordability crunch for buyers. The average five-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.54 per cent, according to Rightmove.

Capital Economics, a consultancy, projects that borrowing costs will remain at relatively high levels and house prices will keep falling until mid-2024, dropping about 10 per cent in total from their peak in August 2022. House prices fell 4.6 per cent in the year to August this year, the largest drop since 2009, according to Halifax.

“It certainly remains a buyer’s market,” said Richard Donnell, research director at Zoopla. “The asking price isn’t the value of the home. It’s the starting point. In today’s market, buyers are negotiating a bigger discount.”

A third of homes that sold had their prices cut, of which one in 10 dropped by more than 10 per cent before finding a buyer, Donnell said.

Thomas said some agents were overpricing properties at first to win instructions. Properties that don’t see interest right away are more likely to require a price cut. But he added that a larger share of top-end properties were being sold off-market, where price reductions were rarer.

Homes in London and the south-east of England recorded the biggest discounts, Zoopla said. Despite the pick-up in demand and sales going into the normally busy September and October selling season, Zoopla expects the number of house sales will end the year at 1mn, a fifth less than last year.

[Lem]

El mencionado informe de Zoopla House Price Index - September 2023

- UK house prices have fallen for the first time since 2012 with prices down -0.5% over the last 12 months

- House price growth ranges from +1.6% in Scotland to -1.5% in the South East and East of England

- Demand from buyers is higher this month as consumer confidence and market sentiment improve

- Buyers are waiting for price falls or lower mortgage rates to avoid compromising on their move

- We expect mortgage rates to fall slowly in the coming months - once they get below 4.5%, we’ll see more buyers return to the housing market

- Asking price discounts are at 4.2% on average, the highest level since 2019

- UK house prices on track to have fallen 2% to 3% over the course of 2023

- Track the value of your home over time and compare it with other house prices in your area

[pollo]

UK Homeowners Say Jump in Interest Rates Will Force More to Sell

- Soaring interest rates are straining mortgage holders
- Analysts anticipate house price declines will accellerate

Almost a quarter of British mortgage holders are considering selling up after the surge in borrowing costs, threatening to pile pressure on the struggling housing market.

Just under a 10th of mortgage holders have already sold and moved to a cheaper property in response to the surge in interest rates, according to a survey released Thursday by KPMG. However, a further 22% are considering moving to a cheaper home as they refinance loans at at much higher costs.

The finding is one of the first to suggest there will be a wave of people forced to sell properties they can no longer afford after the Bank of England pushed its benchmark lending rate to the highest since 2008. It adds to concerns that a relatively modest drop in house prices so far has further to run.

While interest rates on home loans have retreated from a 15-year high, borrowing rates on new mortgages are still almost triple their level in early 2022, Bank of England data shows.

UK Mortgage Holders Are Struggling With Higher Interest Rates
Measures taken by mortgage holders facing higher borrowing rates



“This higher interest rate environment is causing between 10% to 20% of mortgage holders that KPMG surveyed to take significant steps to manage these higher costs,” said Linda Ellett, UK head of consumer markets of retail and leisure for KPMG. “Inevitably, increased household budget and savings being used to pay the mortgage, or higher rent cost, will continue to lead to less money being spent elsewhere within the economy by consumers.”

In a bid to reduce monthly loan repayments, almost a fifth have used savings to reduce their mortgage balance, 16% have switched to an interest-only mortgage and 12% have extended their loan term.

Data from Nationwide shows that house prices slipped back 5.3% in the 12 months to August, the biggest annual fall since 2009. However, economists are expecting the house price slump to continue in the coming months.

Uyuyuyuy. Que la presa ya empieza a tener grietas...

[saturno]

Lo vuelvo a poner para que su autor sume gracias.

Muy buen resumen.
 
https://ctxt.es/es/20230901/Firmas/44124/Javier-Rubio-mercado-inmobiliario-especulacion-vivienda-PP-Madrid.htm

Javier Rubio Gil es miembro del Centro de Asesoría y Estudios Sociales (CAES).

[asustadísimos]

[Lo de los mexicanos en el madrileño barrio de Salamanca es mentira. Lo sé por experiencia profesional directa. Se simula que el dinero (negro español que se blanquea) viene de un rico o un profesional mexicano, que actúa a través una sociedad (que se la vende el asesor fiscal español), sociedad que ni tiene que ser mexicana, aunque eso sí debe operar con una cuenta bancaria mexicana (lo que se puede hacer por internet). Se ofrece el fraude tanto en formato 'mexicano' rico inversor como en formato mexicano profesional inquilino. Los vecinos jamás llegan a ver a un mexicano de verdad, sino solo al hijo recién casado de un empresario de 'políngano' de pueblo de las cercanías de 'Mierdrid'; y dicen: «los horteras están invadiéndonos la calle, pero más la acera de los pares, que la nuestra». El recibo de IBI y el de la comunidad de propietarios se pasan a la sociedad interpuesta, que tiene su domicilio a efecto de notificaciones españolas en el pisito en cuestión; y el asesor trinca a un cliente defraudador de por vida. Como se ve tanto latino por Madrid, cuela. Pero los mexicanos, como los argentinos, no hacen sus enjuagues en euros sino en dólares.]

[saturno]

https://www.eleconomista.es/podcasts/noticias/12144848/02/23/El-hombre-que-se-hizo-rico-vendiendo-piedras-como-si-fueran-mascotas.html

Saludos.

Cuando la realidad supera a la metáfora.

El éxito comercial de la primera demuestra que el mensaje de la metáfora se comprende hasta hoy,

Pero hay dos lecciones también  : que la metáfora ya era comprendida como tal desde 1975, y los actores eran por tanto conscientes de lo que hacÍan y lo hicieron por decisión propia,  voluntaria, porque entonces lo veÍan divertido, no porque se lo creyeran, Pero también que ahora en 2023 seguimos sabiendo que es solo una metáfora. La diferencia es como el cuento del flautista de Hamelín, que  sabemos también que no es divertido cuando las reglas del juego convierten la diversión en distopia, El artículo anterior de Javier Rubio muestra que no es sólo es el Capital sino las reglas de la Ciudad política las que están en peligro,

Pero se tardó más en construir las reglas de la metáfora popular-capitalista que lo que tardará ésta en disolverse. El riesgo no está en la metáfora, sino en la ausencia de reglas.

Organicense. Que todo vaya bien dependerá de que consigamos dotarnos de reglas tan divertidas o más que las que se adoptaron en el 75,

(El paralelo es lo que sucedió en Europa tras las caida de Constantinopla, hasta el Renacimiento, el tiempo de dotarse de nuevas reglas divertidas, que eso fueron la arenda o el affermage (capitalismo continental), hasta el  el inicio del capitalismo anglosajón (capitalismo de navieras) y de nuevo el capitalismo continental  que cuaja en el XIX con el Estado burgués social que conocemos hasta hoy,)

[Derby]

https://www.gulf-insider.com/us-shale-giant-agrees-with-jpmorgan-oil-headed-for-150/

US Shale Giant Agrees With JPMorgan; Oil Headed For $150

Slowly but surely, the market is waking up to a jarring realization: the price of oil is now higher than where it was a year ago, and also where it was right before the start of the Ukraine war, but in the meantime, the Biden administration has drained 240 million barrels of oil in pursuit of short-term popularity gains. Alas, those gains are now all gone, as are the oil price declines, but the SPR is down to half of where it was at its peak.

As JPM discussed last week when it predicted the return of the oil “supercycle”, crude is about to rise much higher as a result of what JPM sees as a staggering 7mmb/d deficit by 2030…



…but also other factors as follows:

*higher for longer rates tempering the flow of capital into new supply,
*higher cost of equity driving elevated Cash Breakevens of >$75/bbl Brent (post buybacks) as companies return structurally more cash to shareholders, in turn, pushing the marginal cost of oil higher,
*Institutional and policy led pressures driving an accelerated transition away from hydrocarbons and peak demand fears. Taken together, their corollary is a self-reinforcing ‘higher-for-longer’ energy macro outlook as the industry struggles to justify large investments beyond 2030.

JPM also upgraded global energy equities to overweight for the following reasons:

1. More positive macro outlook (preference is oil over gas owing to the former’s structurally positive characteristics and lower OPEC-mitigated volatility),
in-the-money corporate cash breakevens (vs the forward strip), implying ~12% ‘24 FCF yields rising to ~15% at $100/bbl,
2. Upside risks to EPS (we are ~10% higher than the street in 2024 (on MTM basis) having been ~10% below in January),
3. Attractive valuations relative to the market underpinned by cash return yields >30%,
4. In the event that global inventories continue to fall and a rising oil price environment, OPEC is likely to add in the next 12 months. Historically, this has been supportive for energy equities as it typically indicates improving underlying fundamentals (demand) – we show energy equities tend to outperform and positively decouple to oil on production adds (we note that although oil prices are up 30% since June when Saudi initiated the 1mb/d cut, equities have lagged, only up ~10% i.e. negatively decoupled).

While there was much more in the full note, the bank’s thesis could be summarized in a simple price target: $150 oil. But the largest US bank is not the only one expecting oil to soar by more than 50% from its current price.

Continental Resources, the shale driller controlled by billionaire Harold Hamm, agrees that oil is headed as high as $150 a barrel unless the US government does more to encourage exploration,

Crude output in the Permian Basin will one day peak as it already has in rival shale regions such as the Bakken region of North Dakota and the Eagle Ford in Texas, Continental Chief Executive Officer Doug Lawler said during an interview with Bloomberg TV. Without new production, “you’re going to see $120 to $150” oil, he said.

“That’s going to send a shock through the system,” he said. Without policies encouraging new drilling, “you’re going to see more pressure on price.”

And since the Biden administration is doing everything in its power to not only discourage new drilling but to make existing drilling as painful as possible, one may ask if $200 isn’t more realistic.

What about the supply response? Well, even if oil breaches the $100 mark, Continental has no plans for a burst of output, Lawler said. “We are investing at a very prudent level consistent with our cash flows,” Lawler said. “To go and invest and being producing as much as we can is not how we generate the greatest value.”

[sudden and sharp]

https://www.eleconomista.es/podcasts/noticias/12144848/02/23/El-hombre-que-se-hizo-rico-vendiendo-piedras-como-si-fueran-mascotas.html

Saludos.

Cuando la realidad supera a la metáfora.

El éxito comercial de la primera demuestra que el mensaje de la metáfora se comprende hasta hoy,

Pero hay dos lecciones también  : que la metáfora ya era comprendida como tal desde 1975, y los actores eran por tanto conscientes de lo que hacÍan y lo hicieron por decisión propia,  voluntaria, porque entonces lo veÍan divertido, no porque se lo creyeran, Pero también que ahora en 2023 seguimos sabiendo que es solo una metáfora. La diferencia es como el cuento del flautista de Hamelín, que  sabemos también que no es divertido cuando las reglas del juego convierten la diversión en distopia, El artículo anterior de Javier Rubio muestra que no es sólo es el Capital sino las reglas de la Ciudad política las que están en peligro,

Pero se tardó más en construir las reglas de la metáfora popular-capitalista que lo que tardará ésta en disolverse. El riesgo no está en la metáfora, sino en la ausencia de reglas.

Organicense. Que todo vaya bien dependerá de que consigamos dotarnos de reglas tan divertidas o más que las que se adoptaron en el 75,

(El paralelo es lo que sucedió en Europa tras las caida de Constantinopla, hasta el Renacimiento, el tiempo de dotarse de nuevas reglas divertidas, que eso fueron la arenda o el affermage (capitalismo continental), hasta el  el inicio del capitalismo anglosajón (capitalismo de navieras) y de nuevo el capitalismo continental  que cuaja en el XIX con el Estado burgués social que conocemos hasta hoy,)

Nah...

Son piedras negras de San Jerónimo (el sábado.)










--------
[ A módico preu.]

[Derby]

A mí me parece que lo están gestionando muy bien. Veremos cómo sigue avanzando el proceso de "concurso de acreedores" extrajudicial de Evergrande...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/09/28/china-evergrande-property-liquidation-shares/

Chinese property giant Evergrande’s slow implosion nears crunch time

It’s been a terrible week in Chinese real estate giant Evergrande’s battle to shake its reputation as the Lehman Brothers of China’s struggling economy — a comparison it has been trying to avoid since 2021, when it defaulted on $330 billion in debt and sent shock waves through global markets.

It started with confirmation Sunday that the developer couldn’t raise funds after saying it needed to “reassess” its restructuring plans amid an investigation by Chinese regulators — news that led to the biggest sell-off in Chinese property stocks in nine months on Monday.

Then, on Thursday, the group and two of its major subsidiaries suspended trading after Bloomberg reported that its billionaire chairman, Xu Jiayin, was being held under “residential surveillance” by Chinese police. Xu is also called Hui Ka Yan, the Cantonese pronunciation of his name.

The fall from grace of Xu and his company — he was by some estimates China’s richest businessperson in 2017 — tracks the rapidly declining health of the Chinese property sector, which accounts for nearly a quarter of economic growth in the world’s second-largest economy.

The spate of bad news suggests that China’s efforts to achieve a “controlled demolition” of its most indebted company might be spiraling out of control — and toward liquidation for the heavily indebted developer.

Recent events have shown that “Evergrande isn’t in the good graces of the authorities,” said Janz Chiang, an analyst at Trivium China, a Beijing-based research firm.

Aside from Xu, other sitting and former executives of China Evergrande Group and its subsidiaries are being investigated by Chinese authorities for potentially breaking rules over the use of bank deposits, respected Chinese media outlet Caixin reported this week.

The investigation makes it difficult to reach a restructuring deal. “Some creditors have already announced their intention to join a winding-up petition if Evergrande fails to come up with a new plan, which seems difficult given ongoing troubles,” Chiang said.

A messy end to Evergrande’s saga would deal a blow to already shaky confidence in the ability of Xi Jinping, China’s powerful leader, to coax the slowing economy out of a post-pandemic malaise.

While many of the problems dampening growth predate Xi — Chinese property developers have been overbuilding and over-borrowing for decades — some close observers of China’s political economy blame the downturn on Xi’s attempt to pursue major, top-down overhauls too quickly on too many fronts.

A no-deal outcome could shatter confidence of a recovery in the embattled sector and reverse optimism among other developers that are fighting to avoid a similar fate.

China’s largest property developer by sales, Country Garden, which has also flirted with default, reached an agreement with creditors on Tuesday to delay its repayments on domestic loans, Reuters reported.

In an effort to end the slump, cities across China are trying to revive property sales by making it easier for nonresidents to buy homes as well as cutting down payment requirements and improving mortgage rates.

Across the broader economy, too, there were signs of recovery in August, as sales of goods picked up and exports stabilized. Many analysts are watching China’s upcoming week-long public National Day holiday to see whether confidence is returning to the scores of Chinese consumers who remain reluctant to spend.

But many analysts consider the possibility of the property bubble bursting the biggest threat to economic recovery.

“[The property sector] is the biggest immediate problem that can worsen structural issues, such as confidence,” said Gary Ng, senior analyst at Natixis, a Hong-Kong based investment firm.

Evergrande is “a symptom of the ongoing problems in the real estate sector, which may drag down China’s economic growth in the future,” Ng said.