PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Otoño 2023

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://twitter.com/DanielKral1/status/1718943350194073893

Negocios TV | ¿En qué se gasta el dinero España? El gráfico que muestra el desastre de la economía y que va a peor

Saludos.

[Benzino Napaloni]

Lo importante de esta portada es la división: arriba el problema (baja la vivienda), abajo la solución (las masas pisitonecrófilas echadas al monte).
E impresionante también el editorial, denunciando la "grave falta de acceso financieramente asequible" a los pisos. El problema no es el precio, sino el tipo de interés de la banca...  Vamos a ver los que no está en los hezcritos

Bueno, tampoco es nuevo. Libremercao ya se quejaba hace cuatro años.

La nueva Ley Hipotecaria dificulta la compra de vivienda

La culpa es de los bancos que no emprestan.

Ahora son noticias de portada porque el frenazo no es que sea inminente, es que hace tiempo que ya está aquí. 8 meses llevan cayendo las ventas en España, y el "parto" está cerca. En 2006 pasó exactamente lo mismo, en aquel octubre comenzó la caída de las cifras de compraventa, y con un retardo de nueve meses exactos llegaron las bajadas de los precios. Y como entonces, los "falsos profetas" tienen que sacarse de la chistera lo que haga falta, cualquier cosa excepto "la hemos cagado, la fiesta se acabó".

Parece que, efectivamente, la investidura consumada ha arrebatado las últimas esperanzas de al menos repetir elecciones, volver a tirar la moneda al aire, y en primavera ya se vería. Y se ha dado ya la señal para vender a toda prisa antes de que caiga el precio.

[Derby]

Equidad intergeneracional...

https://www.businessinsider.com/real-estate-investment-market-mortgage-rates-baby-boomers-down-payment-2023-11

Baby boomers got rich off real estate and they are in perfect position to do it again



*Baby boomers have built a $82 trillion nest egg.
*Nearly one-fourth of that was built through real estate equity.
*With less pressure from interest rates, they can take advantage of the current real estate market, too.

With their $82 trillion nest egg, baby boomers have helped the US economy with their spending. They're also in the perfect position to help themselves by taking advantage of the current real estate market.

According to a new report this week from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), older Americans are making up a larger portion of home buyers and are in a better position to purchase a home in the current market. And with more sellers cutting prices and signs that prices could start falling, buying real estate now puts them in a perfect place to build even more wealth the next time prices rise, especially since equity- and cash-rich boomers are less susceptible to sky-high mortgage rates than younger buyers.

According to the report, repeat buyers — people who have previously purchased a home — now make up 68% of all purchases. Since 1981, the average for this group was 62%.

In addition, the average age for a repeat buyer this year was 58, down one year from last year's all-time high of 59. That is right on the cusp of boomers aged between 59 and 77.

According to the NAR, older Americans are better positioned to buy houses.

"We are still talking about an incredibly difficult market for first-time buyers to enter, even if there's slightly less competition," NAR deputy chief economist Jessica Lautz wrote. "If there's a multi-offer situation, an all-cash buyer or someone who has a lot of equity is likely to win. And that person is going to be older."

That's where boomers have the advantage.

Nearly 18% of the US population is 65 or older, the highest level since the Census Bureau began tracking the rate in 1920. However, boomers have about half of the combined net worth in the US at approximately $82 trillion, according to the Federal Reserve.

About 24% of that wealth ($19 trillion) is in real estate — more than the $16 trillion they have in pensions and just behind the $21 trillion they have in stocks.

While mortgage rates have fallen a bit in recent weeks, they are still north of 7%, pricing many young Americans out of the housing market. Homeownership is now deemed unaffordable in nearly 80% of all US counties.

However, boomers can make stronger bids on homes for sale because of their savings and real estate equity. They can make larger down payments or even all-cash purchases as they are more likely to own a home already, and 68% of adults 70 years and older are mortgage-free.

According to the NAR, the average down payment for a repeat buyer was 19%, compared to just 8% for first-timers.

Meanwhile, more than one-third of house purchases in September were all-cash, according to the real estate broker RedFin.

Home buyers could soon start to see big drops in prices

The housing market has been in an ugly place for buyers, but there are signs that they are beginning to see better deals, with home construction on the rise and more sellers dropping their asking prices.

A growing inventory mixed with active price cuts is good news for people buying houses, and several experts are predicting big cost drops, including Jeremy Grantham, co-founder and chief investment strategist of GMO.

"House prices will come down," Grantham said on "The Compound and Friends" podcast. "30% would be a pretty good guess."

David Rosenberg, Rosenberg Research president and former chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch, told Insider in February that house prices could fall by as much as 25% from their peak in 2022.

Even if prices don't fall dramatically, they are at least holding steady.

If we assume that demand and prices will rise again in the second half of 2024, when the Federal Reserve may begin to lower interest rates, now is the time to buy a house if interest rates are not a concern. And for many boomers, they are not.

[Derby]

https://therealdeal.com/new-york/2023/11/16/deutsche-bank-shopping-buyer-for-222-broadway/

Deutsche prepared to take $350M loss on hollowed-out FiDi office building

Bank’s asset arm pitching 780K sf building as office-to-resi candidate



A decade ago, Deutsche Bank paid nearly $500 million for the 1960s-era office building at 222 Broadway. Now, after the departure of Bank of America and WeWork’s bankruptcy, the financial institution is prepared to take a massive loss on the building.

Deutsche’s asset management arm is shopping the 31-story building for sale, eyeing a price of somewhere between $150 million and $200 million, The Real Deal has learned.

The office portion of the 780,000-square-foot building is only 31-percent occupied after Bank of America, which had leased the majority of the office space, let its lease expire. WeWork also leased a large portion of the space, and the location is part of the company’s bankruptcy. (Though, not one of the 70 locations the co-working company immediately rejected last week.)

Deutsche Wealth Services is pitching the building as a “blank canvas opportunity for an investor to either re-lease the building as office, or convert some or all of the building to residential,” according to marketing materials from Newmark, where a team led by Adam Spies and Josh King is leading the sales effort.

The tower floors are particularly well suited for a conversion, given their efficient layouts and access to light and air, according to the offering memo.

A representative for DWS declined to comment.

The bank bought the property in 2014 from Beacon Capital and L&L Holding Company.

While the offices are virtually empty, the retail space is almost entirely leased and generates more than $60 million in revenue, with tenants that include Zara and JP Morgan, according to the offering memo. Still, the property is facing a number of challenges that are making things difficult in the office market, including hybrid work, rising interest rates and WeWork’s bankruptcy.

Another former WeWork landlord, Vanbarton Group, is working to convert a rejected space in Midtown into residences, which is something owners are surely giving consideration to as they prepare to take back these spaces.

[Derby]

https://therealdeal.com/national/2023/11/18/week-in-review-for-nov-18-2023/

Money problems: Cracks in CRE are widening

Dollar figures reveal damage from industry headwinds

The sky might not be falling, but real estate values and prices are.

Take, for example, RFR Realty and Kushner Companies’* Dumbo office portfolio, which has lost 68 percent of its value since 2018, according to Trepp.

The value of the collateral behind the portfolio fell from $640 million five years ago to $207.1 million.

In San Francisco, PGIM Real Estate Finance is poised to sell a 252,600-square-foot office building for $70 million in Downtown San Francisco, whose owner went sideways on a $125 million loan.

The lender, the real estate arm of Prudential Financial in New Jersey, has cut a deal to sell the 18-story tower at 201 Spear Street in the South Financial District. The buyer is locally based Strada Investment Group and an undisclosed equity partner.

The news isn’t unique. Arbor Realty Trust’s share price fell nearly 9 percent last week after short seller Viceroy Research criticized the company’s reliance on making “high-risk” multifamily bridge loans — short-term, floating-rate debt.

Because Arbor gave out the majority of these loans in 2021, when interest rates were historically low, many of its borrowers have struggled to repay them as rates have soared.

Valuations for these properties have simultaneously plummeted, in many cases to levels less than the debt tied to them.

Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank is prepared to take a $350 million hit on a near-empty FiDi office building. The bank is looking to sell 222 Broadway in New York City, pitching it as an office-to-resi candidate.

The stagnant market is such that the already murky pricing game is even tougher.

“Nobody has a good sense of value,” said Alex Horn, managing partner at Miami-based lender BridgeInvest. “Everyone is operating on what has happened in the past.”

While any appraisal requires some magical thinking — predicting things like income, occupancy and economic cycles — the decline in transactions has made the guessing game particularly difficult.

*Jared Kushner es yerno de Donald Trump.

[asustadísimos]

SEMANA HISTÓRICA EN PLENO REQUETECATACRACK, TRÁGICA PARA EL POPULARCAPITALISMO.—

• La victoria del supergafe Milei, la puntilla del modelo popularcapitalista. Falsoliberal neoliberal, 'libertario' (ja), contestatario conservador, pero de la hispanosfera —no de la anglosfera—, comprometidísimo con la 'vataya kurturáh' y la indiferencia mutua —«el papa Francisco, representante del Maligno»—, es la quintaesencia del CUANTO PEOR, MEJOR. La dolarización es una estupidez. Y no se puede desmontar el Estado del Bienestar compensatorio que hay porque es mínimo. Ahora, por parte del impresentable, viene culpar de su impotencia a 'la herencia'. Nuestra misión solo es desenmascarar la ESTAFA MILEI perpetrada contra muertos de hambre. En España estamos a salvo porque pertenecemos a la eurozona. Pero el Madrid isabelino va a 'mileizarse' mucho más de lo que ya está. Vamos a ver una ESPIRAL GUSTAFRUTA.

Recordemos que la economía Argentina es bimonetaria, pero con libertad de circulación de capitales (vid. ley de Gresham y trinidad imposible de Mundell). Los adinerados ahorran en una moneda extranjera y, con ella, especulan contra la propia para obtener beneficios usurarios al pagar salarios y pensiones, e impuestos con pesos. Ni EEUU ni Trump ni Musk ni Vox van a comprar pesos argentinos. El capitalismo es brutal y esta inmerso en una transición hacia una suerte de capitalismo de Estado (elementos de planificación central y fiscos y monedas estables). Va a estar necesitado de una emergencia tras otra para mantenerse. Argentina es una de estas emergencias, aparte de un escarmiento en cabeza ajena para todos los países. No va a haber ayuda financiera ni fiscal para experimentos descabellados de resurrección popularcapitalista. Argentina ha caído en las simas más profundas del mierdismo.

Milei

• Sánchez, presidente español, aparte de presidente de la Internacional Socialista.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yW83OPMalWQ
«No soy presidente porque no quiero»
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/5hweecFAyDI
«Dije me gusta la fruta»
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OC89C8vmFAg
«Dije que nos uniéramos a los de la acera de enfrente»


• La caída de precios en 'centros & costas', portada de la prensa en España.

• Más 'menos sesenta por ciento' a la lista de la corrección valorativa inmobiliaria (vid. Banco Santander en Haya y Altamira): Deutsche Bank, en Broadway 222, NY —donde hay un Zara—, rebajón de 500 a 200.


• EEUU prorroga los Presupuestos hasta enero, pero sin financiación ni para Ucrania ni para Israel.

[Suavesito_Papi]

Peor.. imposible.

[Cositas]

https://elpais.com/economia/negocios/2023-11-18/tiene-hijos-entonces-no-le-alquilo-la-casa.html

Saludos.

Enla entradilla:

La búsqueda incesante del inquilino perfecto lleva a algunos propietarios a desechar familias con menores.

Se ha encendido el fuego de mi ira, que quema hasta lo profundo de los dominios de la muerte.
Devorará la tierra y sus cosechas,
 y consumirá la raíz de las montañas.
Amontonaré calamidades sobre ellos
 y contra ellos lanzaré mis flechas.
Enviaré a que los consuman el hambre, la pestilencia nauseabunda y la plaga mortal.
Lanzaré contra ellos los colmillos de las fieras y el veneno de las víboras que se arrastran por el polvo.
En la calle, la espada los dejará sin hijos, y en sus casas reinará el terror.
Perecerán los jóvenes y las doncellas, los que aún maman y los que ya se peinan canas.
Me dije: “Voy a dispersarlos; borraré de la tierra su memoria”.

Deuteronimo 32, 22-26

[gregorsamesa]

Hombre que a esos famosos e ignotos cuarteles generales del capitalismo no se les haya ocurrido un mejor oponente que el señor 140% inflación, algo tendrá que ver digo yo.
 (O más bien que como dice Chosen, la planificación central popularcapitalista ya está requetedemostrada durante 40 y pico años y más de lo mismo, como que no).
Que nos vamos a divertir, Seguro.

Pd: Y con los 7000 leuros /mes que se va a llevar el pelomocho aun más (aparte de todo lo que han trincado y más que van a trincar, con la colaboración del partido del R78, si no muere el perro no se va a acabar la rabia)

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/vivienda-inmobiliario/noticias/12545222/11/23/los-fondos-se-refugian-en-la-renta-fija-y-la-inversion-en-vivienda-cae-un-42.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/opinion/noticias/12544972/11/23/cambio-de-estrategia-logico-de-los-fondos.html

https://www.eleconomista.es/banca-finanzas/noticias/12546456/11/23/banca-y-fondos-venderan-este-ano-mas-de-25000-millones-en-activos-toxicos.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/energia/noticias/12546513/11/23/la-caida-de-los-precios-de-la-electricidad-golpea-el-autoconsumo.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12544769/11/23/el-gobierno-quiere-resucitar-el-plan-de-pensiones-de-los-empleados-publicos.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12544998/11/23/el-coste-del-absentismo-laboral-ascendera-a-25000-millones-en-2023.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12543614/11/23/el-aceite-de-oliva-sube-un-735-en-un-ano-y-la-carne-de-cerdo-un-138.html

Saludos.