PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Otoño 2023

[Derby]

https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-reboots-its-belt-and-road-initiative-99784632

China Reboots Its Belt and Road Initiative

Beijing is trying to make lending under the infrastructure program less risky 10 years after launching it

A decade after its launch, China is trying to revive its sprawling infrastructure program by making it a lot less risky.

A reboot of the program is under way as Chinese leader Xi Jinping prepares to host a 10th anniversary bash for the Belt and Road Initiative in Beijing this week. The goal is to breathe new life into a project that remains central to China’s global ambitions after a rocky spell of bad debts and costly bailouts—while preventing a repeat of the excesses that contributed to those troubles in the first place.

The megaprojects of the past are giving way to smaller, more targeted deals, including in sectors such as green energy and healthcare. A bigger pool of Chinese lenders is putting up financing following a pullback in lending by China’s large policy banks. Rather than charging in alone, these newcomers are teaming up with Western banks and multilateral lenders to tap their experience in managing the risks of doling out big sums to shaky borrowers.

Representatives from more than 130 countries will attend this year’s Belt and Road Forum, according to the Chinese Foreign Ministry. But it isn’t clear which countries are sending their top leaders. Russian President Vladimir Putin has said he would attend. Neither President Biden nor leaders of Europe’s major powers are attending, reflecting souring ties but also the skepticism that has grown around the project since it began.(...)

An important part of the BRI reboot, some analysts say, is how China finances BRI lending. As borrowers hit debt difficulties, loans from large lenders such as the Export-Import Bank of China and China Development Bank have shrunk in recent years, according to Boston University data.

Yet other state-owned lenders have quietly been stepping up, said Brad Parks, executive director of AidData, a research lab that tracks China’s overseas finance at William & Mary, a university in Williamsburg, Va. Often, these lenders are joining groups of foreign banks in bankrolling infrastructure projects to spread the risk if payment problems emerge.

In 2021, for instance, Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China joined lenders including Standard Chartered, Citibank and the World Bank’s International Finance Corporation in a syndicate that lent $360 million for the development of a natural gas field in Iraq, according to AidData records.

After getting burned by bad debts, Beijing is effectively outsourcing risk management to Western lenders, said Parks.

“Beijing is trying to de-risk the BRI,” he said.

[Derby]

Ghana Asks Bondholders to Take Haircuts of as Much as 40%

*Ghana wants to reach agreement on commercial debt by year-end
*Nation seeks bilateral debt deal before November IMF meeting

Ghana is asking bondholders to take haircuts of as much as 40% to meet its debt-reduction targets under a $3 billion bailout program from the International Monetary Fund.

The African nation is in talks with two commercial creditor groups, one regional and one international, and has received restructuring proposals from both, Finance Minister Ken Ofori-Atta said at a livestreamed investor presentation Monday.(...)

[pollo]

Owners of second homes in Scotland braced for doubling of council tax

Plans to free-up housing as holiday properties force up property prices

Pues el que haya invertido,es decir, especulado, que tome por el culo diez veces. El que haya pagado porque quería quedarse ahí no tendrá ese problemón.

[Derby]

Suena a que están perdiendo la paciencia...

https://www.ft.com/content/c59d1a0c-9cda-4749-9c5b-dd7691b46f0a

Fall in US inflation not just a blip, says Fed official Austan Goolsbee

Chicago Fed president says housing costs are a ‘negative surprise’ but trend is still down for prices

A top Federal Reserve official said it was “undeniable” that the slowdown in US inflation was a trend rather than a momentary blip, despite a recent string of economic data showing persistent pressure on some prices.

Speaking to the Financial Times, Austan Goolsbee, president of the Chicago Fed, denied that progress was stalling on getting inflation back to the US central bank’s 2 per cent target. He cautioned against tying forthcoming monetary policy decisions to a narrow set of data.

“There is a lot saying that inflation is trending down compared with what it has been and that’s what we want,” he said. “It’s undeniable this is a trend. It wasn’t a one-month blip . . . we have to hope and keep an eye out to make sure that continues.”

The latest inflation report showed that consumer prices rose more than expected in September, to 3.7 per cent year on year. A surprising uptick in housing-related costs, as well as those related to hotel rooms and recreation services, kept core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, firm as well. The report followed an unexpectedly large jump in monthly payrolls.

Together, the figures suggest that momentum in the world’s largest economy is still strong, intensifying the debate among Fed officials about whether they will need to raise their benchmark policy rate by one more quarter-point notch this year. The federal funds rate stands at a 22-year high of 5.25 per cent to 5.5 per cent, a level reached in July. Officials next meet at the end of the month.

Goolsbee, who is a voting member on the Federal Open Market Committee this year, acknowledged that the reversal in rental and other housing inflation after months of easing was a “negative surprise” meriting a “proper element of caution”. Economists and policymakers had expected those prices to continue to moderate, given data showed a slowdown in most markets. Goolsbee said it was something he would closely monitor to determine the speed at which inflation fell from here.

But he was much more sanguine about the jobs data, saying that large monthly gains while wage growth was slowing was most likely an indicator of improving labour supply rather than a cause for concern. In a recent interview with the FT, Treasury secretary Janet Yellen also subscribed to that view.

“One of the worst things you can do is tie this monetary policy decision to what did the last data show the last month. You want to take a broader view,” said Goolsbee, who stressed he had yet to make up his mind about a November rate rise.

However, he said, the Fed had been “rapidly approaching” a point where the policy debate was shifting away from how high to raise interest rates to how long they needed to be maintained at this level. Nothing in the data in the past six weeks had changed that.

Since the last meeting in September, at which officials signalled support for one more rate rise this year and half a percentage point fewer cuts in 2024 than previously estimated, US borrowing costs have risen sharply. At one point, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was at its highest level since 2007. The rout has eased in recent days as policymakers at the Fed have hinted that tighter financial conditions may offset the need for another rate rise.

Many, including hawkish governor Christopher Waller, have also reiterated that the central bank has the flexibility to maintain a more patient approach to future policy decisions, and can take time to assess incoming data to get a better grasp on the economy’s trajectory. This is something Goolsbee also endorsed.

“That’s what I call the ‘data-dog’ approach. Let’s just keep sniffing,” he said.

Complicating the two remaining decisions this year are external shocks, including a sharp escalation in tensions in the Middle East that has driven up oil prices and fanned significant uncertainty about the outlook for both global growth and inflation.

An expanding autoworkers strike as well as the renewed spectre of a US government shutdown next month pose additional risks.

Goolsbee, who maintained that the Fed could get inflation under control without substantial economic pain, said he was most concerned about disruptions such as these jeopardising that outcome. “Oil price shocks and external shocks have derailed soft landings that were easier than this one.”

[Derby]

https://www.elconfidencial.com/inmobiliario/2023-10-16/caixabank-internaliza-servicing-building-center_3753484/

cambio de modelo
CaixaBank refuerza las filas de su inmobiliaria Buildingcenter para romper con los 'servicers'

La entidad trabaja con un plan a tres años dirigido a internalizar el grueso de los trabajos de 'servicing' inmobiliario que hasta ahora ha confiado a firmas como Servihabitat e Intrum

Cambio de modelo en el negocio de los servicers inmobiliarios. El mayor banco de España, CaixaBank, está trabajando en un proyecto a tres años dirigido a internalizar el grueso de los trabajos de servicing inmobiliario que históricamente ha tenido contratados con Servihabitat y que, desde el pasado mayo, ha confiado a Intrum.

Según ha confirmado El Confidencial con varias fuentes conocedoras, la entidad está reforzando la plantilla de Buildingcenter, su filial inmobiliaria, con perfiles procedentes del mundo del servicing y con la idea de que vaya haciéndose cargo de parte de los trabajos que actualmente tiene adjudicados al grupo sueco.

De hecho, las mismas fuentes aseguran que el pasado mayo, cuando entregó a Intrum la gestión de todos sus activos adjudicados, un patrimonio valorado en 3.500 millones de euros, lo hizo teniendo ya en mente este plan a tres años. Desde CaixaBank, han declinado hacer comentarios.

La pasada primavera, la entidad dirigida por Gonzalo Gortázar dividió su servicing en tres contratos: marketing y comercialización, gestión de alquileres y mantenimiento. Un cambio que aprovechó también para ajustar las comisiones, que no superarán en su conjunto los 50 millones de euros.

Como adelantó El Confidencial, los ganadores fueron Intrum, que se hizo con la venta y mantenimiento de los inmuebles, y Azzam, gestora del grupo Azora, que se quedó la gestión de los inmuebles en alquiler, trabajos que, a priori, quedan fuera de este plan de internalización de Buildingcenter.

El grupo sueco consiguió arrebatar este contrato a Servihabitat, filial de Lone Star (80%) y de la propia Caixa (20%), y convertirse en el único servicer del banco, ya que, gracias a la compra de Haya, también se quedó el contrato con la antigua Bankia.

Pero todo este emporio tiene un marcado carácter temporal, debido al interés de CaixaBank por reforzar Buildingcenter y rebajar tanto la dependencia de terceros como las comisiones que les paga.

Un movimiento en línea con el creciente convencimiento de que tanto la morosidad hipotecaría como la promotora que pueda derivarse del alza de los tipos de interés serán pequeñas y fácilmente controlables por la banca, sin necesidad de subcontratar a especialistas. (...)

[sudden and sharp]

Calviño recorta en 5.000 millones la emisión de deuda de 2023 tras el máximo en una década del bono español a diez años
https://www.abc.es/economia/calvino-recorta-5000-millones-emision-deuda-2023-20231016193914-nt.html
La vicepresidenta atribuye la reducción de las emisiones netas del Tesoro de este año a la buena marcha de la economía y al cumplimiento de los objetivos fiscales




























(Zen Sittin' On) The dock of the bay
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Ca5QoXSe18
 

[Derby]

Acaparamiento de trabajadores por parte de las empresas.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/economists-split-on-when-firms-will-stop-hoarding-labor-e423e75

Economists Split on When Firms Will Stop Hoarding Labor

Some companies are keeping labor force levels steady despite weak expectations for demand, a move known as “labor hoarding.” Economists are divided on when such behavior is likely to end, according to the latest quarterly survey by The Wall Street Journal. Some 36% of business and academic economists say labor hoarding will end in the first quarter of next year, while 12% expect it will end in the second quarter and 10% in the third quarter of 2024. Some economists expect labor hoarding will continue for longer: 22% say it will only end in the first quarter of 2025 or later, while 10% responded “never.”

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-16/country-garden-in-final-hours-to-avoid-first-dollar-bond-default

Country Garden in Final Hours to Avoid First Dollar Bond Default

The developer must pay $15.4 million coupon by Oct. 17-18
It warned it will not be able to meet all offshore payments

The clock is ticking for Country Garden Holdings Co. to avert its first-ever public dollar bond default, as the distressed Chinese developer faces the imminent end to a deadline for interest payment.

The builder, which has become a symbol of China’s broader property debt crisis, missed the original deadline for the $15.4 million coupon on the note last month. The bond carries a so-called 30-day grace period that ends Oct. 17-18, before a default can be called.(...)

[Derby]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/real-estate-brokers-pocketing-6-185119778.html

Real Estate Brokers Pocketing Up to 6% in Fees Draw Antitrust Scrutiny

(Bloomberg) -- The lucrative broker commission system at the heart of the US residential housing market is facing unprecedented antitrust scrutiny from the Justice Department and two private class-action lawsuits that risk weakening the National Association of Realtors, the industry’s powerful lobbying group.

Federal antitrust enforcers are poised to decide whether to pursue their own case after a years-long investigation, according to a person familiar with the issue. The Justice Department is focused on the real estate commission-sharing system that typically puts homesellers on the hook for a 5% to 6% cut of the sale, split between their agent and the buyer’s agent.

It’s a structure largely unique to the US, preserved by the association’s control of many of the country’s multiple listing services — an essential tool that aggregates properties available for sale in a given region. To use the system, NAR requires sellers to offer compensation to the buyer’s representative, which critics say inflates home prices.

This practice will also be on trial in two antitrust class actions, including one beginning Monday in Missouri. That case could result in as much as $4 billion in damages, while plaintiffs in an Illinois trial early next year are seeking as much as $40 billion.

The commission-sharing structure equates to “collusion,” Michael Ketchmark, the lead plaintiffs’ attorney in the Missouri case, said in an interview. “The day of accountability is coming.”

The DOJ began investigating residential real estate under the Trump administration, and NAR agreed to measures, including increased price transparency, to settle the case. Biden officials in 2021 pulled out of that agreement, saying they wanted the ability to pursue future antitrust claims against the group, but a federal judge in January said the DOJ is still bound by that settlement. The department is appealing that decision, as the Biden administration expands antitrust scrutiny outside traditional areas.

The Justice Department declined to comment.

‘Seismic Change’

The damages sought in the two civil cases – based on allegedly inflated commissions in each of those markets – would be a blow to the realtor association and the major brokerages listed as co-defendants that haven’t already settled. Re/Max and Anywhere Real Estate Inc. agreed to pay $55 million and $83.5 million, respectively, and to no longer require agents to belong to NAR.

But the bigger threat to the industry as a whole would be a nationwide case brought by the Justice Department to dismantle the commission-sharing structure altogether. In the worst-case scenario for the industry, the federal government could seek to ban sharing commissions, prohibiting sellers’ agents from compensating buyers’ agents.

“Our guess is that the lawsuits in Missouri and Illinois will not go that far, but it’s possible,” Redfin Corp. Chief Executive Officer Glenn Kelman said in an interview. “We think that DOJ action is necessary to reach that level, and that would be a seismic change — basically, half the real estate agents in this country would be unemployed.”

Redfin, an online real estate firm, also withdrew from the National Association of Realtors earlier this month, citing its long-held concerns about agent compensation.

Commission rates, which often get baked into a home’s listing price, are an attractive target for the Biden administration as low housing supply and spiraling mortgage costs combine to create the least affordable housing market in four decades. On a $407,100 house — the median existing-home sales price — a 5.5% commission comes to about $22,390.

In some parts of the world, total commissions for each sale are significantly lower – around 2% in countries like Australia and the UK.

The Justice Department highlighted the issue in a recent court filing asking a federal judge in Boston to hold off on approving a potential settlement in another antitrust suit challenging commission rules.

The Justice Department “is concerned about policies, practices, and rules in the residential real estate industry that may increase broker commissions,” the agency said, asking for a two-month delay to offer further thoughts on the issue.

Lower Payout

Completely untying buyer and seller agent fees could eventually lower commissions by as much as $30 billion annually, according to a study by the Consumer Federation of America, a watchdog group. If aspiring homeowners had to pay agents directly, they would likely shop around before hiring one — increasing competition — or pay an hourly or flat-fee service to handle paperwork at closing.

“Increasingly the industry is accepting the fact that the rates will eventually be untied, and they’re just trying to delay it,” Steve Brobeck, former executive director of CFA, said in an interview.

NAR says the existing system opens the door to first-time home-buyers, especially from minority and lower income groups.

“This case is very much about buyer representation and that being at risk,” Mantill Williams, a spokesman for NAR, said in an emailed statement. He said buying a home is a consequential decision and people “shouldn’t be forced to go it alone.”

NAR has said the buyer commission offer doesn’t have to be the traditional 2.5% – the group recently said it could even be $0. But that higher rate persists in most transactions as sellers fear that listing with lower payouts for buyers’ agents would cause them to steer clients away — a concern borne out by recent research.

Indeed, in an email to Re/Max affiliates describing the company’s settlement in the civil case, President and CEO Nick Bailey reminded agents of their “professional obligation” to show properties regardless of the compensation offer.

These changes could also put the future of the National Association of Realtors in doubt. The group collects $150 in annual dues from more than 1.5 million agents. It’s a moment of reckoning for the group that last year surpassed the US Chamber of Congress to be the biggest spender on lobbying in the US, laying out more than $80 million in 2022.

This unprecedented pressure poses an “existential threat,” according to David Greer, who worked with NAR for over a decade. He said the prospect of buyers’ agents exiting the industry – and taking their membership dues with them – in the wake of any reform has left NAR “immensely afraid.”

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://cincodias.elpais.com/opinion/2023-10-16/una-solucion-obvia-a-la-inflacion-y-la-segunda-revolucion-electrica.html

El sector inmobiliario empieza a notar la normalización financiera

https://cincodias.elpais.com/companias/2023-10-16/el-alza-de-tipos-incrementa-la-presion-en-la-deuda-de-las-inmobiliarias.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://cincodias.elpais.com/mercados-financieros/2023-10-16/el-tesoro-pagara-en-noviembre-el-20-mas-por-su-deuda-ligada-al-ipc.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://cincodias.elpais.com/mercados-financieros/2023-10-16/el-misterioso-caso-del-ahorro-menguante.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://cincodias.elpais.com/economia/2023-10-16/espana-no-atrae-talento-solo-madrid-llega-a-la-media-europea-en-empleados-cualificados.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://cincodias.elpais.com/economia/2023-10-15/el-76-de-los-directivos-espanoles-creen-que-la-inflacion-lastrara-el-crecimiento-de-sus-empresas.html

https://cincodias.elpais.com/economia/2023-10-15/los-veintisiete-tratan-de-acercar-sus-posturas-sobre-reglas-fiscales-aun-lejos-del-acuerdo.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://cincodias.elpais.com/economia/2023-10-16/hacia-donde-se-dirige-la-economia-la-divergencia-en-los-datos-da-la-clave.html

Saludos.