PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Otoño 2023

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/economia/guia-vivienda.html

https://www.expansion.com/economia/2023/10/21/653150bae5fdeac26e8b45a0.html

Los precios en Madrid suben un 5,7% y crece la brecha norte-sur

https://www.expansion.com/economia/2023/10/21/6531516ee5fdea3b058b4595.html

La vivienda en Barcelona sube un 2%, con Les Corts y Gràcia al alza

https://www.expansion.com/economia/2023/10/21/653152cbe5fdea1d4e8b459c.html

El alquiler en Madrid empieza a aflojar

https://www.expansion.com/economia/2023/10/21/65315349e5fdeaec368b459a.html

El alquiler en Barcelona no tiene límite

https://www.expansion.com/economia/2023/10/21/6531544ae5fdea52388b45a0.html

Valencia empieza a notar un ajuste en los precios de venta

https://www.expansion.com/economia/2023/10/21/65322d5d468aeb6f708b4574.html

Distrito Sur registra la mayor alza en Sevilla

https://www.expansion.com/economia/2023/10/21/65315646e5fdeaec368b45a1.html

Se intensifica la tendencia alcista de precios en Málaga

https://www.expansion.com/economia/2023/10/21/65322dd2468aeb43778b4577.html

Espectacular subida en la zona oeste de Zaragoza

https://www.expansion.com/economia/2023/10/21/653157fbe5fdea4e288b45b4.html

Bilbao se frena, pese al dinamismo de barrios de la periferia

https://www.expansion.com/economia/2023/10/21/65315d91e5fdea52388b45c2.html

A Coruña y Vigo sostendrán el precio de la vivienda nueva

https://www.expansion.com/economia/2023/10/21/65315f05e5fdea554f8b45b8.html

La vivienda sigue batiendo al IPC

https://www.expansion.com/mercados/euribor/2023/10/21/65327150468aebef0e8b4586.html

Hipotecas con mayor vinculación, con nuevas reglas y más caras

https://www.expansion.com/economia/2023/10/21/6531604fe5fdea4e288b45bb.html

Comprar vivienda en 2023: todas las claves fiscales

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/empresas/banca/2023/10/21/6532dd6e468aeb11338b45b7.html

La banca de Wall Street recorta 20.000 empleos en lo que va de año

Saludos.

[Vipamo]

LA GUERRA DE GAZA HACE BUENA LA DEL DONBASS.—

Otros vendrán que bueno te harán.

El conflicto palestino-israelí, para las izquierdas, es TERRITORIAL.

Para la derecha, ÉTNICO-CULTURAL, pero con toneladas de hipocresía: el gran antisemita de la historia fue Lutero, que culpó al pueblo judío del asesinato de Jesús (vid. «Von den Juden und ihren Lügen», Sobre los judíos y sus mentiras, Lutero, 1543); y de Lutero cuelgan el III Reich y el imperio angloamericano.

Dicho sea, que las diferentes sectas evangelicanas en USA predican la alianza con los judíos y su posición como: “Gods chosen people”. Así mismo reconocen que Israel es para los judíos citando la Biblia.

Curioso como se mezcla la política y la religión en la democracia modelo de USA, por lo menos en este aspecto.

[Vipamo]

LA GUERRA DE GAZA HACE BUENA LA DEL DONBASS.—

Otros vendrán que bueno te harán.

El conflicto palestino-israelí, para las izquierdas, es TERRITORIAL.

Para la derecha, ÉTNICO-CULTURAL, pero con toneladas de hipocresía: el gran antisemita de la historia fue Lutero, que culpó al pueblo judío del asesinato de Jesús (vid. «Von den Juden und ihren Lügen», Sobre los judíos y sus mentiras, Lutero, 1543); y de Lutero cuelgan el III Reich y el imperio angloamericano.

Dicho sea, que las diferentes sectas evangelicanas en USA predican la alianza con los judíos y su posición como: “Gods chosen people”. Así mismo reconocen que Israel es para los judíos citando la Biblia.

Curioso como se mezcla la política y la religión en la democracia modelo de USA, por lo menos en este aspecto.

Cabe mencionar, que la alianza entre evangélicos y judíos tiene fecha de caducidad. El día del juicio final se tienen que convertir al cristianismo y a los que lo rechacen, se les dará plomo.

[AbiertoPorDemolicion]

Esperemos que Javier Milei gane hoy las elecciones y los dolarófilos argentinos se lleven una buena patada en la boca.

[Asdrúbal el Bello]

Parecemos parvos. La solución de los dos estados ha muerto. Hamas se la ha cargado por los siglos de los siglos.
Hablando en bíblico, se ha comido las lentejas. Algunos palestinos sobrevivirán como minoría local en Israel. El resto se integrarán en Egipto, Jordania y Siria.

La guerra es la máquina perfecta de generar "inflación buena", y EE.UU. la va a usar a gran escala.

[Derby]

https://fortune.com/2023/10/21/housing-market-2024-home-price-forecast-outlook-by-zillow/

Where the housing market has Morgan Stanley only seeing pain for homebuyers ahead, Zillow keeps cutting its forecast. Here’s why

The housing market hasn’t seen a climate like this in a long time—but when exactly is a big question. To go by existing home sales, it hasn’t been this bad since 2010, the depths of the Great Recession, as a 15% collapse in September sent transactions to a 13-year low, a “deep freeze” that Zillow had warned about back in the spring. Other economists, such as Mark Fleming from First American and Jeseo Park from Bank of America Research, see conditions that recall the “housing recession” of the 1980s. Morgan Stanley took the temperature of the market earlier this week and saw just more pain for homebuyers ahead: An up to 5% rise in home prices nationwide, reversing its previous call for prices to fall amid high mortgage rates. Zillow is taking the opposite tack.

After their February call that U.S. home prices had hit bottom, Zillow economists had been raising their home price forecast each month through August. At that point, they predicted home prices would climb 6.5% over the next 12 months. Last month, though, they issued a downward revision. And this month, they did it again.

Zillow economists predicted this week that home prices would rise 2.1% between September 2023 and September 2024. That compares to their prediction last month that home prices would rise 4.9% between August 2023 and August 2024.

“Zillow’s forecast of the nation’s typical home value was revised downward this month due to an uncharacteristic month-over-month dip in September and mortgage rates climbing ever higher,” they wrote this week.

Zillow economists have come to terms with the likelihood that a resilient labor market will mean a longer-than-expected period of elevated interest rates. With the firming of rates, the housing market has lost some steam.

“Elevated mortgage rates are weighing on new listings with ‘rate-locked’ homeowners largely opting to hold onto the relatively low monthly payment associated with their current home,” wrote Zillow economists.

They now expect national home prices to rise 3.3% in 2023, down from the 4.3% they predicted last month.

“While many home shoppers are priced out or limited in what they can afford, there are enough active buyers to keep competitive pressure on for the few homes available for sale,” they noted.

Morgan Stanley, for its part, recently made a more dramatic change to its 2023 outlook. While its analysts previously expected home prices to fall for the year, they now say prices could rise by up to 5%. The reversal, made in a research note earlier this week, comes as mortgage rates continue to rise.

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit 8% this week, according to Mortgage News Daily. Rates haven’t been this high in decades.

“It is likely they will stay around that level…in the last few months of the year, especially if the Fed does raise rates one more time before the year is done,” Mark Fleming, chief economist at Fortune 500 financial services company First American, told Fortune this week.

The Fed is keeping open the possibility of further rate hikes. Andrew Levin, a former senior Fed adviser who’s now a professor at Dartmouth College, recently told Bloomberg: “There is a very substantial risk that they will need to do more.”

[Derby]

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/leon-cooperman-stock-market-outlook-house-prices-forecast-billionaires-2023-10

More than a decade of near-zero interest rates and gratuitous government spending have "pulled forward demand in a dramatic way," driving up asset prices and running up the national debt, he said. "Ultimately, the piper has to be paid."

[Derby]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/laid-off-masses-message-mark-130000961.html

The laid-off masses have a message for Mark Zuckerberg and Marc Benioff: We’ll never come back

For some workers, it doesn’t matter how grim the economy is, how dismal the job market, or how thankless their current job. If they were laid off—especially during the pandemic—many workers would never dream of returning to the place that dropped them.

Tech companies have laid off nearly 245,000 workers this year alone, per tracker Layoffs.fyi, and Silicon Valley heavyweights like Meta and Salesforce have led the pack, each culling thousands of jobs apiece.

But workers weren’t losers for long. Now, as the job market shifts once again, companies are scrambling for talent, and some are angling for the very kinds of workers they just cut. The real question is what will happen when those workers decide they don’t want them back?

Over half (58%) of 6,000 professionals who responded to a recent Glassdoor poll said they’d never return to a company who laid them off. In the tech sector specifically, just 46% of workers said they’d boomerang. Men were slightly more likely to consider boomeranging than women, and older workers were more open-minded than younger ones.

"As the labor market has softened over the past year….some regrets are inevitable,” Aaron Terrazas, chief economist at Glassdoor, tells Fortune. A few sectors have begun “cautiously” ramping up their hiring as their fears of a recession recede, but “corporate reputation casts a long shadow.”

The legacy of layoffs—and how they were carried out—could “come back to haunt companies when the pendulum of the labor market inevitably swings back,” Terrazas adds. “Former employees can be a company’s most loyal advocates, or they can be the most piercing critics.” The result depends on the nature of the company.

Salesforce laid off about 10% of its workforce earlier this year, but now CEO Marc Benioff is encouraging those people to apply to fill its 3,000-plus open roles. “Our job is to grow the company and to continue to achieve great margins,” Benioff said in September. “We know we have to hire thousands of people.” He’s hoping a good portion of those people will be boomerangs. Benioff admitted to attempting to lure workers back in with an “alumni event for people who are employed in other companies to say—it’s okay, come back.”(...)

[Benzino Napaloni]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/laid-off-masses-message-mark-130000961.html

The laid-off masses have a message for Mark Zuckerberg and Marc Benioff: We’ll never come back

For some workers, it doesn’t matter how grim the economy is, how dismal the job market, or how thankless their current job. If they were laid off—especially during the pandemic—many workers would never dream of returning to the place that dropped them.

Tech companies have laid off nearly 245,000 workers this year alone, per tracker Layoffs.fyi, and Silicon Valley heavyweights like Meta and Salesforce have led the pack, each culling thousands of jobs apiece.

But workers weren’t losers for long. Now, as the job market shifts once again, companies are scrambling for talent, and some are angling for the very kinds of workers they just cut. The real question is what will happen when those workers decide they don’t want them back?

Over half (58%) of 6,000 professionals who responded to a recent Glassdoor poll said they’d never return to a company who laid them off. In the tech sector specifically, just 46% of workers said they’d boomerang. Men were slightly more likely to consider boomeranging than women, and older workers were more open-minded than younger ones.

"As the labor market has softened over the past year….some regrets are inevitable,” Aaron Terrazas, chief economist at Glassdoor, tells Fortune. A few sectors have begun “cautiously” ramping up their hiring as their fears of a recession recede, but “corporate reputation casts a long shadow.”

The legacy of layoffs—and how they were carried out—could “come back to haunt companies when the pendulum of the labor market inevitably swings back,” Terrazas adds. “Former employees can be a company’s most loyal advocates, or they can be the most piercing critics.” The result depends on the nature of the company.

Salesforce laid off about 10% of its workforce earlier this year, but now CEO Marc Benioff is encouraging those people to apply to fill its 3,000-plus open roles. “Our job is to grow the company and to continue to achieve great margins,” Benioff said in September. “We know we have to hire thousands of people.” He’s hoping a good portion of those people will be boomerangs. Benioff admitted to attempting to lure workers back in with an “alumni event for people who are employed in other companies to say—it’s okay, come back.”(...)

Benzino approves this .

Ahora en serio, tal como salía en layoffs.fyi, los despidos se han frenado en seco. Una parte era inevitable por la sobrecontratación en pandemia, algo que debió haberse contenido. Si bebes como una cuba, luego la resaca no te la quita ni el Espíritu Santo.

Pero hubo al menos otros dos elementos. Uno, la financiación. A Google no le debió hacer mucha gracia tener que echar a ingenieros con muchos años de experiencia, algunos hasta quince. Pero los inversores habían firmado acuerdos con retornos obligatorios, y más de uno no quiso renegociar. Por último no perdamos de vista el intento de amedrentar a unos trabajadores que llevaban tiempo presionando para mejorar condiciones. Salario y teletrabajo principalmente.

Pero la jugada ha salido mal. El único sitio donde sobran trabajadores es en los negocios de cancamusa. Pero donde hay negocios reales, la necesidad sigue siendo muy alta. Y el daño ya está hecho. Más de uno ha captado el mensaje de que aunque trabaje bien se puede ir a la calle igual. Y eso en un contexto en el que no hay suficientes trabajadores, y la tendencia es a que la escasez aumente.

Conozco personalmente casos de antiguos compañeros a los que les han ofrecido volver, y casi se rompen el brazo de la peineta.

Así que a estas alturas doy por hecho que las empresas más gordas ya saben lo que hay y ya han tenido su comité de crisis. Mientras, las menos importantes irán a rebufo y les cogerá el toro.

[BENDITALIQUIDEZ]

Este mensaje lo vamos a oir mucho a partir de ahora: "de momento bajará pero el año que viene subirá"  Sustituid "el año que viene" por el periodo temporal que sea...pero que sea largo plazo.  Como el cerebro escucha lo que más le conviene, se quedará con el "subirá" y todos tranquilos.

Lo interesante es que la idea de que el precio de la vivienda baje ya no es negativo, es positivo porque al final "subirá". Si le sumamos el dato de que todo esto va en línea con lo que sucede en el resto del mundo civilizado, la MN se queda conforme y hasta contenta.

https://cincodias.elpais.com/economia/2023-10-21/la-vivienda-bajara-por-fin-el-proximo-ano-pero-volvera-a-las-subidas-en-2025.html

La vivienda bajará por fin el próximo año pero volverá a las subidas en 2025

Bankinter espera un aumento del 1% en los precios de aquí a fin de año debido a la fortaleza del mercado laboral. Las transacciones retrocederán un 7% en 2024

El respiro que podría dar el precio de la vivienda a los españoles el próximo año –con una caída de hasta el 2%– será meramente coyuntural, pues a partir de 2025 volverán a la senda del crecimiento, con un repunte estimado de al menos el 1%, según las previsiones publicadas el viernes por Bankinter. Para ese momento, creen que el Banco Central Europeo podría comenzar a bajar los tipos de interés, por lo que el euribor a 12 meses aflojaría desde el 4,1% de este año hasta el 3,4%. Pese a este incremento, la entidad descarta por completo una burbuja inmobiliaria y aseguran que la accesibilidad a un piso se mantiene en línea con la media histórica, si bien admiten que hay zonas donde hay una clara oferta por mayor concentración de población.

A pesar de la ralentización de la economía y las subidas de tipos de interés que se han registrado en 2023, los precios de la vivienda se mantienen en senda alcista, por lo que el banco prevé un incremento del 1,2%, frente a su anterior estimación en la que apuntaba una caída del 3%. Además, y pese a que barajan una caída de hasta el 2% para el año que viene, creen que se trata de un escenario menos probable debido a la resistencia del mercado laboral y a que el endurecimiento de la política monetaria suponen un factor de disrupción temporal.

Las cifras que la entidad baraja para final de año son similares a las de otros analistas. El portal inmobiliario Idealista espera un aumento del 2% debido a que la oferta de casas en el mercado se ha reducido. Tinsa y Fotocasa esperan que el precio se estabilice hacia finales de 2023, aunque no precisan una cifra, mientras que Beatriz Toribio, directora adjunta de Masteos, asegura que se terminará con una leve subida de entre el 0,5% y el 1%. La principal explicación que da Bankinter para este repunte se encuentra en el mercado laboral; en particular en el sector servicios, cuyo buen desempeño este año se ha traducido en miles de empleos nuevos y en una subida nominal del salario próxima al 5%.

En cualquier caso, es una tendencia a nivel global.  :biggrin:En Estados Unidos, por ejemplo, el consenso elaborado por Reuters sostiene que la vivienda no caerá en 2023. Y la misma tendencia se produce en buena parte de Europa, con dos excepciones: Alemania y Reino Unido, aunque por circunstancias locales. En el primer caso, por ejemplo, se debe a que los precios han subido más de un 80% desde 2007. Sin embargo, según Bankinter, en España y la mayor parte de los países del continente, el parámetro sigue en niveles similares a los de esa época.

Al contrario de lo que ocurre con los precios, las transacciones de vivienda se han visto reducidas. Las previsiones de la entidad bancaria fijan una caída del 14% en 2023 y del 7% en 2024. A pesar de que en términos porcentuales parece un gran frenazo, en realidad supondría volver a la media histórica de 500.000 transacciones, pues en 2022 hubo niveles no vistos en 15 años Los analistas consideran que este nivel es sostenible a medio plazo y debería repartirse en unas 100.000 transacciones de vivienda nueva y 400.000 de segunda mano.

Por último, en un entorno de subidas muy moderadas de precios de vivienda y mayores costes de construcción, por materias primas y mano de obra, se espera que los precios de suelo caigan un 5% en 2023 para rebajar costes de financiación.

Y luego la gente critica a los de Hamás...

[Benzino Napaloni]

En cuanto a "en 2025 vuelven a subir", el cuento de siempre. La escasez de oferta es el mantra al que se agarran para justificar los precios. Ni media palabra de hasta qué punto esa "escasez" es artificial e inducida.

Las cartas están boca arriba, los rentistas ya han dejado claro que bajarán los precios cuando se congele el infierno. Lo que no reconocen, como en 2008, es que el que necesite liquidez puede elegir entre tragarse el sapo o comerse la ejecución de la hipoteca.

Jugaremos a ver quién aguanta más la respiración, es lo que se ha elegido...

[pollo]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/laid-off-masses-message-mark-130000961.html

The laid-off masses have a message for Mark Zuckerberg and Marc Benioff: We’ll never come back

For some workers, it doesn’t matter how grim the economy is, how dismal the job market, or how thankless their current job. If they were laid off—especially during the pandemic—many workers would never dream of returning to the place that dropped them.

Tech companies have laid off nearly 245,000 workers this year alone, per tracker Layoffs.fyi, and Silicon Valley heavyweights like Meta and Salesforce have led the pack, each culling thousands of jobs apiece.

But workers weren’t losers for long. Now, as the job market shifts once again, companies are scrambling for talent, and some are angling for the very kinds of workers they just cut. The real question is what will happen when those workers decide they don’t want them back?

Over half (58%) of 6,000 professionals who responded to a recent Glassdoor poll said they’d never return to a company who laid them off. In the tech sector specifically, just 46% of workers said they’d boomerang. Men were slightly more likely to consider boomeranging than women, and older workers were more open-minded than younger ones.

"As the labor market has softened over the past year….some regrets are inevitable,” Aaron Terrazas, chief economist at Glassdoor, tells Fortune. A few sectors have begun “cautiously” ramping up their hiring as their fears of a recession recede, but “corporate reputation casts a long shadow.”

The legacy of layoffs—and how they were carried out—could “come back to haunt companies when the pendulum of the labor market inevitably swings back,” Terrazas adds. “Former employees can be a company’s most loyal advocates, or they can be the most piercing critics.” The result depends on the nature of the company.

Salesforce laid off about 10% of its workforce earlier this year, but now CEO Marc Benioff is encouraging those people to apply to fill its 3,000-plus open roles. “Our job is to grow the company and to continue to achieve great margins,” Benioff said in September. “We know we have to hire thousands of people.” He’s hoping a good portion of those people will be boomerangs. Benioff admitted to attempting to lure workers back in with an “alumni event for people who are employed in other companies to say—it’s okay, come back.”(...)

En este caso la motivación nunca debe ser el orgullo, sino la simple lógica.

Quien te deja tirado una vez te puede dejar tirado todas las que haga falta.

[Benzino Napaloni]

En este caso la motivación nunca debe ser el orgullo, sino la simple lógica.

Quien te deja tirado una vez te puede dejar tirado todas las que haga falta.

Tendrías que oír los argumentos peregrinos que más de una empresa ya ha utilizado. Lo sentimos, era necesario, no nos quedó otra... Y por supuesto muchas de las que están recontratando ni se molestan en ofrecer alguna compensación. Mejora de sueldos, un pago por las nóminas perdidas, algún ascenso... Nada.

Pero sí, lo que comentas te garantizo que ha calado. Hay un desánimo tremendo entre los que por ingenuidad o por creer que estaban en la carrera del ascenso se han dejado la piel y su recompensa ha sido la patada. Ahora no se fían, y aquí está una de las razones (me temo que la más importante) de por qué se ha dado la orden de parar los despidos. Normalmente se aprovechaba para acojonar a los que quedaban, pero esta vez el efecto ha sido justo el opuesto.

[Cadavre Exquis]

Dropbox Returns Over 25% of Its San Francisco HQ to Its Landlord
Posted by EditorDavid on Sunday October 22, 2023 @07:34AM from the returning-office dept.

"Dropbox said Friday that it's agreed to return over one quarter of its San Francisco headquarters to the landlord," reports CNBC, "as the commercial real estate market continues to soften following the Covid pandemic."

The article notes that last year Dropbox's accountants declared a $175.2 million "impairment" on the office — a permanent reduction in its value — calling it "a result of adverse changes" in the market. And the year before they announced another $400 million charge "related to real estate assets."

Friday CNBC reported:

In a filing, Dropbox said it agreed to surrender to its landlord 165,244 square feet of space and pay $79 million in termination fees. Under the amendment to its lease agreement, Dropbox will offload the space over time through the first quarter of 2025. Since going remote during the pandemic three years ago, Dropbox has been trying to figure out what to do with much of the 736,000 square feet of space in Mission Bay it leased in 2017, in what was the largest office lease in the city's history. The company subleased closed to 134,000 square feet of space last year to Vir Biotechnology, leaving it with just over 604,000 square feet...

"As we've noted in the past, we've taken steps to de-cost our real estate portfolio as a result of our transition to Virtual First, our operating model in which remote work is the primary experience for our employees, but where we still come together for planned in-person gatherings," a company spokesperson told CNBC in an emailed statement... Dropbox's 2017 lease for the brand new headquarters was for 15 years... "As a result of the amendment the company will avoid future cash payments related to rent and common area maintenance fees of $137 million and approximately $90 million, respectively, over the remaining 10 year lease term," Dropbox said in Friday's filing.

A short walk away from Dropbox, Uber has been trying to sublease part of its headquarters.

The article also notes that San Francisco's office vacancy rate "stood at 30% in the third quarter, the highest level since at least 2007, according to city data."

Saludos.