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[¿Quién dice que no se pueden prever las caídas?:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3gRCVEcXuYY ]
Jesús salió del Templo y, mientras iba caminando, sus discípulos se acercaron a él para hacerle notar las construcciones del mismo.Pero él les dijo: «¿Ven todo esto? Les aseguro que no quedará aquí piedra sobre piedra: todo será destruido».Cuando llegó al monte de los Olivos, Jesús se sentó y sus discípulos le preguntaron en privado: «¿Cuándo sucederá esto y cuál será la señal de tu Venida y del fin del mundo?». [Mateo 24, 1-3]
Montes Sion, Moriah y Olivos hace 2000 añosMonte Moriah en la actualidad
Amiano Marcelino, escribió sobre este particular:'Juliano pretende reconstruir a un precio extravagante el que una vez fuera orgulloso templo de Jerusalén, encargando esta tarea a Alipio de Antioquía. Alipio se puso en ello con vigor, ayudado por el gobernador de la provincia; entonces unas temibles bolas de fuego estallaron cerca de las obras, y tras continuados ataques, los obreros abandonaron y no volvieron a acercarse a las obras.'https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juliano_el_Ap%C3%B3stata
https://www.bde.es/f/webbe/GAP/Secciones/SalaPrensa/NotasInformativas/23/presbe2023-90.pdfSaludos.
La disminución de las peticiones de fondos se explicaría, principalmente, por el aumento de los costes de financiación. En el segmento de crédito a las empresas, también habrían influido en esta evolución las menores inversiones. Por su parte, en el caso de los hogares, el descenso de la demanda de crédito también se explicaría por la menor confianza de los consumidores, el mayor uso de los ahorros y las peores perspectivas sobre el mercado de la vivienda.
China Is Transitioning Economically, And So Far Successfully(...) But China’s main issue now is the real-estate market. Prices are too high; it’s an investment and speculation vehicle; the people who need housing aren’t able to afford it, and since China has enough housing now, further investment is a mis-allocation of resources.Which leads us to—Boom. China is crashing the real-estate market. In the western press this is viewed as bad, an economic crisis, but it is necessary. Housing needs to become a commodity good, so that everyone can afford it and so that resources go to more needed areas.And while making it to high income includes a lot of consumption, China has challenges which can only be met thru manufacturing, engineer and science. It needs to leap past the final western barriers in industries like semiconductors, biotech and aircraft. It has to transition to a clean electrified economy and prepare for climate change. (Really, to avoid a collapse, they have to build a massive sea wall along the northern coast, otherwise the northern breadbasket will wind up under water.)From where I sit, China is doing most of its major economic policy correctly. Transitions are painful, and it is possible they’ll botch their transition, but these changes are necessary. Indeed, if the West is serious about re-industrializing, we need to do the same thing, with certain differences. We need to build more housing and collapse pricing, where they need to build less housing and collapse prices.(...)
Cita de: Cadavre Exquis en Octubre 28, 2023, 17:26:51 pmhttps://www.bde.es/f/webbe/GAP/Secciones/SalaPrensa/NotasInformativas/23/presbe2023-90.pdfSaludos.CitarLa disminución de las peticiones de fondos se explicaría, principalmente, por el aumento de los costes de financiación. En el segmento de crédito a las empresas, también habrían influido en esta evolución las menores inversiones. Por su parte, en el caso de los hogares, el descenso de la demanda de crédito también se explicaría por la menor confianza de los consumidores, el mayor uso de los ahorros y las peores perspectivas sobre el mercado de la vivienda.WTF?Esto no es lo que dice la corrupta y embustera prensa de las mafias politico-mediáticas y sus bases electorales.Ahora les va a tocar hacer horas extras, llamar a filas a los reservistas y poner a trabajar a los becarios de la prensa pisitófila para contrarrestar este comunicado del BDE.
Many Mortgages Are Still Below 4%. The Rate Is Handcuffing Homeowners.Mortgage rates are at their highest level in 23 years. Many U.S. homeowners who have locked-in their costs, however, have reason to be thankful: the median mortgage holder’s rate is still below 4%. Rising housing costs have gotten a lot of attention, for good reason: Home affordability in the third quarter sank to the lowest level since 2007 as home prices and mortgage rates rose, according to property analytics company Attom Data.The difficult conditions for buying a home have boxed some buyers out of the market and kept sellers from moving, driving existing-home sales in September to their lowest level since 2010. For those homeowners in no rush to unload their property, news of rising mortgage rates have little consequence—except, perhaps, to push off the thought of selling even further. The median U.S. first-lien mortgage holder in September had a 3.5% rate, according to loan-level data from ICE Mortgage Technology, a mortgage analytics and technology division of the Intercontinental Exchange. The last time weekly rates measured by Freddie Mac were that low was in the beginning of 2022.Such a stat, coupled with recent interest rate quotes, illustrates home loan interest rates’ wild ride since 2020. Mortgage rates fell to historic lows in the pandemic’s early years, before climbing recently to the highest level in more than two decades. Mortgage rates are 1.3 percentage point higher than where they began the year, Freddie Mac data show. The difference between the rates the typical borrower pays and recent rate quotes underscores the current financial incentive for homeowners to remain in place. All else equal, a homeowner with a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 3.5% would pay roughly $860 less a month on a $400,000 home than someone who purchased a home last week with a 7.79% mortgage rate, the most recent weekly average from Freddie Mac. That plays an important role in the unusual dynamic in the housing market today. While prospective buyers are stretched thin by higher rates, sellers have fewer incentives to list, a consequence of rapidly-rising rates known as the mortgage rate lock-in effect. That’s helped keep the number of previously-owned homes for sale low. There were 1.13 million homes for sale at the end of September, less than half of the prepandemic average of about 2.5 million, according to historic National Association of Realtors data. The lack of supply, coupled with reduced demand, resulted in the rate of home sales in September falling to its slowest pace since October 2010, according to seasonally-adjusted Realtors association data. It also helps explain how home prices have gained even as mortgage rates have climbed: Homes tracked by Redfin in the four week period ended Oct. 8 were sold for a median $370,000, 2.7% higher than the same time last year.Home prices will be in the news again this coming week, when the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices for August are released on Tuesday. Economists expect that the S&P index measuring home prices in 20 of the nation’s large cities will gain 0.9% from July’s levels, and will be 1.6% higher than one year prior. U.S. homeowners may largely meet higher mortgage rates with a shrug—but rising rates pose more peril in other countries because of the way popular home loan products are structured. Adjustable-rate mortgages and loans with shorter terms are more common in countries such as Germany and the United Kingdom, Barron’s previously reported. Buyers in the U.S., meanwhile, largely buy with longer term fixed-rate loans. The average U.S. homeowner may have little financial motivation to sell—but the decision to move is seldom purely financial. Fewer than 10% of first-lien borrowers have mortgage rates above 6%, according to Ice Mortgage Technology. But in a survey conducted in the first two weeks of September by Zillow, 19% of surveyed homeowners said their home was listed for sale or they intended to sell in the next three years. Lower mortgage rates would unlock some housing supply—though homeowners largely prefer to stay put, suggest results from Zillow’s upcoming Quarterly Survey of Homeowner Intentions and Preferences shared with Barron’s. Of those without plans to sell, the majority—roughly seven in 10—said they probably wouldn’t move, even if mortgage rates fell. Zillow will publish the full report in early November.While financial motivations, such as selling one’s home for a profit or expecting a better deal on buying a new house now than in the future, were popular reasons cited by prospective sellers, the most commonly-cited catalyst for listing a home was related to preferences, not profit. More than three in five homeowners considering selling said they wanted to purchase a more upgraded house, or one with more desirable features.That’s not to say the financial math doesn’t play a role: Homeowners were about two times more likely to consider selling if they had a loan that required private mortgage insurance, a necessity for most loans with down payments below 20%.
Property developer Evergrande faces winding-up petition in Hong KongCase could impact restructuring efforts for indebted Chinese real estate companyTwo years after its first default, the world’s most indebted property developer Evergrande faces its biggest legal test so far in its slow-motion collapse.On Monday, a Hong Kong court will address a winding-up petition, brought by offshore investor Top Shine Global, against a company that has embodied the turmoil that has engulfed China’s property sector and whose fortunes have worsened dramatically in recent months. In September, the authorities said its founder and chair Hui Ka Yan was suspected of crimes, while plans to restructure its international debts were derailed by a lack of approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC). The wider real estate sector has also been shaken this month by a default by the developer Country Garden, adding to dozens of missed payments by its peers.The prospect of an Evergrande liquidation, with its hundreds of projects across the mainland, gives added urgency to Beijing’s effort to address the problems of the country’s paralysed real estate sector.“I do think the Chinese government looks at Evergrande as unique,” said one person familiar with the restructuring sector in China.Top Shine’s winding-up lawsuit, initially brought in mid-2022 but repeatedly delayed, accuses Evergrande of failing to honour claims of HK$863mn (US$110mn) in relation to stakes Top Shine bought in the Evergrande unit Fangchebao, its online real estate and automobile marketplace platform.The lawsuit could also be a further blow to any hopes of a restructuring deal between Evergrande, which had more than $300bn in liabilities at the time of its failure in 2021, and its international bondholders. A deal that would have seen new notes issued to replace old bonds was thrown off course at the last minute in September because of a lack of regulatory approvals.International bondholders have yet to state a clear position on any liquidation, but earlier this month said it was “the base case” if no restructuring deal was reached. Their advisers have attended previous hearings brought by Top Shine.Meanwhile, the fate of Hui has highlighted uncertainty over the government’s views on Evergrande, bringing with it implications for future restructuring plans or the process of liquidation.The person familiar with the restructuring sector in China said criminal proceedings were likely to take precedence over civil cases. “We have been involved in other cases where the chair has been locked up and nothing really happens in the restructuring in that period until the dust settles,” the person said.Beijing has so far emphasised the need to complete unfinished projects and has not openly intervened in Evergrande’s case, with local authorities in the southern province of Guangdong, where Evergrande is based, instead spearheading restructuring discussions.International bondholder advisers Kirkland & Ellis and investment bank Moelis complained in a statement earlier this month about the company’s failure to gain regulatory approval for the restructuring plan.The advisers noted that “despite repeated requests” from the bondholder group, Evergrande “has not provided copies of the filings made with CSRC and a detailed account of the efforts made to obtain the CSRC’s approval which led to the current situation”.In contrast to Evergrande, another developer, Sunac, received approval for its own restructuring in recent weeks in a Hong Kong court.
Check Your Email: 50,000 Borrowers Get Student Loan Forgiveness Notices, And Yes, It’s RealThe Education Department is currently notifying thousands of borrowers that they qualify for student loan forgiveness under a temporary Biden administration program designed to provide relief for those who have older student loans.“For years, millions of eligible borrowers were unable to access the student debt relief they qualified for,” said Education Secretary Miguel Cardona in a statement last month when this latest announcement of loan forgivness was made. “But that's all changed thanks to President Biden and this Administration's relentless efforts to fix the broken student loan system.”Here’s the latest.Nearly $3 Billion In Student Loan Forgiveness“Congratulations! The Biden-Harris Administration has forgiven your federal student loan(s) listed below in full,” reads the notices being sent to borrowers this week.The relief is through the IDR Account Adjustment, a temporary program whereby the Education Department can count past loan periods toward a borrower’s student loan forgiveness term under income-driven repayment plans, which is either 20 or 25 years. These prior periods can include many earlier months and years of repayment, as well as certain periods spent in a non-payment status (like some kinds of deferments and forbearances). Borrowers can qualify for student loan forgiveness even if they are not currently repaying their loans under an IDR plan.The account adjustment is being implemented in phases. The Education Department’s current focus is on borrowers who, as a result of the retroactive credit, have reached the thresholds for student loan forgiveness in accordance with the 20- and 25-year IDR repayment terms. The first wave of borrowers received student loan forgiveness over the summer. The current group getting discharges this week represents a second batch of approximately 51,000 individuals. The department estimates that $2.8 billion in federal student loans are being forgiven for these borrowers in the latest round.“This debt relief was processed as part of the Biden-Harris Administration’s one-time account adjustment because your student loan(s) have been in repayment of at least 20 or 25 years,” reads the notice. “An adjustment to your account updated the number of payments that qualify towards income-driven repayment (IDR) forgiveness. “The notices — which are sometimes being sent by email — may seem too good to be true, particularly since many of these borrowers did not need to specifically apply for this relief. But they are very real. Some borrowers may not be sent an email, and instead will need to check their online account inbox within their loan servicer account to find the notice.(...)
https://www.forbes.com/sites/adamminsky/2023/10/28/check-your-email-50000-borrowers-get-student-loan-forgiveness-notices-and-yes-its-real/CitarCheck Your Email: 50,000 Borrowers Get Student Loan Forgiveness Notices, And Yes, It’s RealThe Education Department is currently notifying thousands of borrowers that they qualify for student loan forgiveness under a temporary Biden administration program designed to provide relief for those who have older student loans.“For years, millions of eligible borrowers were unable to access the student debt relief they qualified for,” said Education Secretary Miguel Cardona in a statement last month when this latest announcement of loan forgivness was made. “But that's all changed thanks to President Biden and this Administration's relentless efforts to fix the broken student loan system.”Here’s the latest.Nearly $3 Billion In Student Loan Forgiveness“Congratulations! The Biden-Harris Administration has forgiven your federal student loan(s) listed below in full,” reads the notices being sent to borrowers this week.The relief is through the IDR Account Adjustment, a temporary program whereby the Education Department can count past loan periods toward a borrower’s student loan forgiveness term under income-driven repayment plans, which is either 20 or 25 years. These prior periods can include many earlier months and years of repayment, as well as certain periods spent in a non-payment status (like some kinds of deferments and forbearances). Borrowers can qualify for student loan forgiveness even if they are not currently repaying their loans under an IDR plan.The account adjustment is being implemented in phases. The Education Department’s current focus is on borrowers who, as a result of the retroactive credit, have reached the thresholds for student loan forgiveness in accordance with the 20- and 25-year IDR repayment terms. The first wave of borrowers received student loan forgiveness over the summer. The current group getting discharges this week represents a second batch of approximately 51,000 individuals. The department estimates that $2.8 billion in federal student loans are being forgiven for these borrowers in the latest round.“This debt relief was processed as part of the Biden-Harris Administration’s one-time account adjustment because your student loan(s) have been in repayment of at least 20 or 25 years,” reads the notice. “An adjustment to your account updated the number of payments that qualify towards income-driven repayment (IDR) forgiveness. “The notices — which are sometimes being sent by email — may seem too good to be true, particularly since many of these borrowers did not need to specifically apply for this relief. But they are very real. Some borrowers may not be sent an email, and instead will need to check their online account inbox within their loan servicer account to find the notice.(...)
Is 'revenge travel' coming to an end?Pent-up travel demand seems to be fizzling out heading toward the end of 2023Following the end of the Covid-19 pandemic lockdowns, a new trend in vacationing emerged: "revenge travel." While this flavor of wanderlust has no singular definition, NPR describes revenge travel as "a huge increase in people wanting to make up for time and experiences lost to the pandemic."And revenge travel was clearly hot after the pandemic cooled. The phenomenon first took off in 2021, and "demand continued to soar" in 2022, when "travelers' desire to make up for lost travel experiences helped to largely recover the domestic leisure sector to pre-pandemic levels," according to a 2022 year-in-review report from the U.S. Travel Association.With the pandemic in the rearview mirror (though infections are still swirling), some industry experts are now saying the era of revenge travel is over. People are still traveling, however — data from the Transportation Security Administration shows that passenger volumes have been up year-over-year almost every day in 2023. So is revenge travel really a thing of the past?Is 'revenge travel' really dead? Yes, "revenge travel is dead," Barron's argued. Over the summer, "airfares dropped both month over month and year over year," and while some wealthier travelers "are still jet-setting internationally, domestic travel has fallen," and many of those still yearning to travel are "willing to trade down to more budget-friendly locations." After the bucket-list-checking frenzy of the past two years, Barron's added, "binge travel is out; bliss travel — meaningful, relaxing, frictionless trips for everyone who was run ragged by revenge vacations — is in."Changing travel habits are not the only indicator revenge travel may be on the way out. Many low-cost airlines are having to alter their fares in order to fill seats. Fuel prices, plane capacity and travel demand are "all headed in the wrong direction," Frontier Airlines chief executive Barry Biffle said at an industry conference in September, The Wall Street Journal reported. A group of low-cost carriers, including Frontier, JetBlue and Spirit, "warned that weaker demand in their home territory will weigh on fares and results this fall," The Washington Post reported. It's not just American travelers, either. A Morning Consult report published in September showed that travel demand was "flatlining or falling" in other countries, "most notably in Europe," CNBC reported. In France and Germany, intentions to travel have dropped 11% and 6%, respectively, since 2022, according to Morning Consult. Interest in traveling is also falling in Canada, Russia, India, South Korea, Italy, Spain and the U.K., the report shows. Do all industry experts agree with this assessment?No. More traditional airlines, with international routes and more expensive seating options, are "scratching our heads" at the challenges described by budget carriers, United Airlines CFO Mike Leskinen said in September. United, he said, had "not seen any dramatic change in the bookings." Delta also said "demand for seats on the airline's planes has remained solid through the fall, led by its high-end seats, for which customers are increasingly willing to pay up," the Journal reported. At the same time, Delta — which is planning a large trans-Atlantic expansion next summer, in a bet on growing international and business travel — has cut its profit projections by 35 to 45 cents per share, citing fuel and other costs.And the death of revenge travel seen by low-cost carriers seems to be an American phenomenon. European low-cost airlines aren't "following the U.S. pattern of a deceleration in short-haul trips," the Post reported, noting that British budget carrier EasyJet "said recently it was still seeing robust demand."What's next for the travel industry?Whatever happens with revenge travel, vacations aren't going away — they're just transitioning. If grand, lavish trips are out, "the travel trend that seems to be gaining strength is travel for wellness," Forbes reported. In 2020 — a year when most travel slammed to a halt — wellness tourism brought in $436 billion, according to the Global Wellness Institute. And that was a down year for wellness tourism, "the powerful intersection of two large and growing multitrillion-dollar industries: tourism and wellness," the institute said, adding that the industry made around $720 billion in 2019.If wellness travel seems in healthy shape, revenge travel will probably continue to fade. "The boost purely from pent-up demand may soon run its course," Oxford Economics warned in September, CNBC reported.
Virgin Atlantic suspends its route from London to Austin because it says the city's tech boom is overOver the past decade, Austin's national reputation has become increasingly tied to the tech sector, with companies lured by its highly educated workforce and Texas-sized tax incentives.But in a major decision, Virgin Atlantic on Friday announced that it would end its nonstop route from Austin to London less than two years after first offering the flights.Virgin Atlantic said it would suspend services between Heathrow Airport in London and the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport, a route that the airline commenced in May 2022 but now says will end on January 7 due to "persistent softening in corporate demand, specifically the tech sector.""We've adored flying our customers to Austin and experiencing this wonderful city of music and culture, but demand in the tech sector is not set to improve in the near term, with corporate demand at 70% of 2019 levels," Virgin Atlantic chief commercial officer Juha Järvinen said in a statement. "Therefore, sadly, we made the tough decision to withdraw services."Such a statement is a reflection of significant changes in Austin, which just two years ago had arguably the buzziest commercial real estate market in the United States.Earlier this month, The Washington Post detailed how the ongoing skyscraper boom in Austin is reshaping the city. The report also noted the looming issue of vacancies in the lion's share of the new commercial real estate projects under construction.Virgin Atlantic's change of heart would seemingly be in line with some of the economic forces that have shifted in Texas' capital city.When Virgin Atlantic launched its nonstop London route, it offered four flights from Austin each week.Austin airport officials, in a statement, thanked Virgin Atlantic and indicated that they hoped to see the airline return in the future."AUS is grateful to the incredible Virgin Atlantic team for launching this ambitious route," the statement read. "We hope to welcome them back one day."Virgin Atlantic may be axing its London route from Austin, but British Airways remains, connecting the two cities with nonstop flights.With the Austin route coming to a close, Virgin Atlantic announced that it would beef up its service between London and Miami for the summer 2024 season, increasing the number of flights between the two cities from 11 to 14.
Aunque debería ir en el hilo del fin del trabajo o en el del teletrabajo, igual también se comenta por aquí. Parece que algunos recruiters están poniéndose nerviosos porque hay mucha gente que no está haciéndoles casito.Es de México, pero está ocurriendo por todos lados:Una reclutadora estalla contra la falta de compromiso de los candidatos: "Estoy harta y asqueada con la gente"https://www.lavanguardia.com/cribeo/viral/20231027/9333474/reclutadora-estalla-falta-compromiso-candidatos-harta-asqueada-gente-mmn.htmlLos comentarios citados en el artículo son jugosos también.
Parece que hace falta gente con talento de verdad. Es hora de quitarles la cadena y bola.De vergüenza. Menudo país de mierda.