PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Otoño 2023

[Derby]

Susto o muerte...

https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/evergrande-proposes-offshore-creditors-get-30-equity-stake-subsidiaries-sources-2023-11-01/

Evergrande proposes offshore creditors get 30% equity stake in subsidiaries

HONG KONG, Nov 1 (Reuters) - China Evergrande (3333.HK) has proposed a new debt restructuring plan for offshore bondholders, offering to swap their debts into about a 30% equity stake in each of the developer's two Hong Kong-listed subsidiaries, according to two sources familiar with the matter.

The property firm's offshore bondholders holding about $19 billion of debt are likely to take a major haircut on their investments if they agree to the new terms, said the two sources who declined to be named because they were not authorised to speak with media.

Evergrande did not respond to a request for comment.

The property developer's dollar bonds last traded at about 2.25 cents on the dollar on Tuesday, according to LSEG data, as bondholders weigh the possible recoveries in the revised restructuring plan against other options like a winding up.

A lawyer for representing an ad hoc group of key bondholders told a Hong Kong court on Monday the restructuring plan could have a higher recovery rate for creditors than a liquidation scenario of less than 3%.

Shares in the units the bondholders will be offered the stake in, Evergrande Property Services Group (6666.HK) and Evergrande New Energy Vehicle Group (NEV) (0708.HK), have fallen by more than 80% this year amid Evergrande's debt woes.

Their combined market value was only around HK$9 billion ($1.15 billion) as of Wednesday morning, with the parent holding 52% of the property arm and 59% of the vehicle firm.

Creditors would be given existing shares of the two units, the first source said, in a deal that would need to be approved by Chinese regulators.

The new plan was raised with some bondholders about two weeks ago, the first source added, after Evergrande's original debt restructuring plan was thrown off course when its billionaire founder Hui Ka Yan was in late September confirmed to be under investigation for suspected criminal activities.

Evergrande was also banned from issuing new dollar bonds, a key part of its original restructuring plan, while its flagship mainland unit was being investigated by regulators.

The second source said the new plan was driven by a work committee under the southern Guangdong provincial government that has been overseeing Evegrande's restructuring since late 2021, after the developer defaulted on its debts. The provincial government did not respond to a request for comment.

The renewed proposal will be key to Evergrande's survival as the company was on Monday ordered by a Hong Kong court to form a concrete debt restructuring plan before a liquidation hearing on Dec. 4, which will decide whether it should be wound up.

Evergrande's original plan, which was backed by the ad hoc group of bondholders before it was thrown off course, offered options including equity-linked instruments backed by the parent Evergrande and the two Hong Kong-listed subsidiaries.

Creditors were allowed to either swap all of their holdings into new notes with maturities of 10 to 12 years, or convert them into different combinations of new notes with tenors of five to nine years and equity-linked instruments, with no direct haircut.

The biggest challenge ahead for Evergrande will be convincing its creditors and shareholders in the two Hong Kong-listed units that the new proposal is worthwhile, industry experts said.

A key group of creditors, categorized as Class C by Evergrande, including private lenders, some Chinese banks and pre-IPO investors had opposed the old plan and demanded better terms before it collapsed.

The ad hoc group of bondholders is unhappy about the revised terms offering equity in the Hong Kong-listed subsidiaries, according to sources.

[Derby]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67282657

House prices in surprise October rise but still down on last year

House prices had the biggest monthly rise in October for more than a year, according to the Nationwide.

However, they were still down sharply on a year ago, the UK's biggest building society said.

The 0.9% rise in prices was most likely due to there not being enough properties to meet demand, it said.

Activity in the housing market is still "extremely weak", it added, as buyers grapple with higher mortgage rates.

"This is not surprising as affordability remains stretched," said Robert Gardner, Nationwide's chief economist.

"Market interest rates, which underpin mortgage pricing, have moderated somewhat but they are still well above the lows prevailing in 2021."



On an annual basis property prices fell by 3.3% in October, compared with a 5.3% drop in September, Nationwide said.

Although it is difficult for many first-time buyers to secure a mortgage at the moment, they will welcome the correction in prices."Sky-high borrowing costs and the continued squeeze on household incomes forces some to delay buying plans because they are unable to secure a mortgage," said Alice Haine, an analyst at investment platform Bestinvest.

Mr Gardner said that borrowing costs were likely to remain relatively high compared with the last decade, but affordability would eventually improve.

"It appears likely that a combination of solid income growth, together with modestly lower house prices and mortgage rates, will gradually improve affordability over time, with housing market activity remaining fairly subdued in the interim," he said.

Last week Lloyds Banking Group, which owns the Halifax - the UK's biggest mortgage lender - said UK house prices were likely to drop by 4.7% this year and by a further 2.4% in 2024, before starting to rise again in 2025.

Nationwide bases its survey data on its own mortgage lending, so the survey does not include those who purchase homes with cash or buy-to-let deals.

According to the latest available official data, cash buyers currently account for more than a third of housing sales.

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-01/dbs-rents-hong-kong-retail-space-at-18-lower-than-asking-price#xj4y7vzkg

DBS Rents Hong Kong Shop for 18% Less to Target Rich Chinese

Bank took 12,000 square feet in Hong Kong’s Central district
Rent of HK$1.8 million was lower than the asking price

DBS Group Holdings Ltd. clinched a deal to rent retail space in Central’s New World Tower for 18% less than the asking price, according to a person familiar with the matter.

The Singapore-based bank will rent the 12,000-square-foot space for HK$1.8 million ($230,000) a month, less than the HK$2.2 million sought, the person said, asking not to be identified because the matter is private.(...)

[Lem]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67282657

House prices in surprise October rise but still down on last year

House prices had the biggest monthly rise in October for more than a year, according to the Nationwide.

However, they were still down sharply on a year ago, the UK's biggest building society said.

The 0.9% rise in prices was most likely due to there not being enough properties to meet demand, it said.

Activity in the housing market is still "extremely weak", it added, as buyers grapple with higher mortgage rates.

"This is not surprising as affordability remains stretched," said Robert Gardner, Nationwide's chief economist.

"Market interest rates, which underpin mortgage pricing, have moderated somewhat but they are still well above the lows prevailing in 2021."



On an annual basis property prices fell by 3.3% in October, compared with a 5.3% drop in September, Nationwide said.

Although it is difficult for many first-time buyers to secure a mortgage at the moment, they will welcome the correction in prices."Sky-high borrowing costs and the continued squeeze on household incomes forces some to delay buying plans because they are unable to secure a mortgage," said Alice Haine, an analyst at investment platform Bestinvest.

Mr Gardner said that borrowing costs were likely to remain relatively high compared with the last decade, but affordability would eventually improve.

"It appears likely that a combination of solid income growth, together with modestly lower house prices and mortgage rates, will gradually improve affordability over time, with housing market activity remaining fairly subdued in the interim," he said.

Last week Lloyds Banking Group, which owns the Halifax - the UK's biggest mortgage lender - said UK house prices were likely to drop by 4.7% this year and by a further 2.4% in 2024, before starting to rise again in 2025.

Nationwide bases its survey data on its own mortgage lending, so the survey does not include those who purchase homes with cash or buy-to-let deals.

According to the latest available official data, cash buyers currently account for more than a third of housing sales.

Ojo, que esto son "average transaction prices", no aporta ninguna información acerca de el valor de cualquier propiedad en particular respecto a su valor histórico.

Este tipo https://twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1OyKAWmvEkNJb (video) argumenta que dado que no se vende un colín (las ventas han caído un 19% durante el último año) y que los más impactados por los tipos (tamaño de la hipoteca) y el aumento del coste de vida y disparados alquileres (incapacidad de ahorrar), lo más probable es que en general se muevan propiedades con un valor más alto

[Manu Oquendo]

El compañero Saturno nos trae en su último post la visión comunista que lleva a liquidar, esencialmente, una perspectiva antropológica que representa lo mejor que la humanidad ha conseguido en términos materiales y espirituales a lo largo de su historia.

Propugna una sociedad sin derecho de propiedad en la que todo lo que era nuestro pasa a estar a disposición de quien, en realidad, controle la masa. Una sociedad en la cual el ser humano es un ente puramente material y sin destino espiritual alguno. Esencialmente un animal doméstico a disposición del Poder. Nos anuncia Cuba, Venezuela o la Rusia Sovética.

Es evidente que con el compañero Saturno estamos de acuerdo en algunas cosas pero también que discrepamos rotundamente en otras. La más importante  diferencia no es el derecho de propiedad, que también,sino  la naturaleza misma del ser humano.
La idea o el concepto de humanidad hay que definirla y nuestra cultura la ha definido como compuesta de seres individuales, responsables moralmente de sus actos, con capacidad y derecho natural a la "agencia" de la propia vida, dotados de espíritu inmortal al menos en el universo que conocemos y todo ello con base mucho más científica que la ya desenmascarada falacia de el ser humano como ente estrictamente material e intrascendente.

Desde esta perspectiva el ser humano ha de ser libre --requisito esencial del comportamiento moral según el legado de Kant-- y... ¿cómo puede serlo sin autonomía con respecto al Poder? ¿Cómo se pueden conquistar grados de autonomía sin un derecho sacrosanto a los frutos de su ingenio y de su trabajo?  De ninguna manera es eso posible.

Durante el siglo XX fue profesor en Harvard un comunista (cripto-comunista según quienes lo han estudiado seriamente) John Rawls Nota 1. Tanto lo era que llegó a dictaminar la inexistencia del mérito como cualidad del carácter moral. Es decir, otorgaba al ser humano la cualidad de miembro indiferenciado de un rebaño.
Pues bien, incluso alguien tan abiertamente totalitario como Rawls (escondido toda su vida bajo la etiqueta  de Liberal y Kantiano) propugnaba que no se cortase toda la autonomía y propiedad a los más dotados para que fuese posible esquilmarlos pero sin que se perdiese el  beneficio social de su esfuerzo.
Buen ejemplo de cinismo.
Vivimos momentos de suma gravedad para España que está a punto de acelerar su mutación en un Estado Fallido como Cuba o Venezuela.
Una España indefensa ante la bajeza moral y la carencia de nobleza por parte de sus gobernantes capaces de prostituir cualquier institución so pretexto de continuar en el Poder como sea. El "como sea" que grabó a fuego Zapatero lo tenemos delante de nuestros ojos.

Lamento profundamente que esto suceda durante los últimos años de mi vida



Nota 1. John Rawls Bibliografía relevante a nuestros efectos.

En español: "Justicia como equidad"   Tecnos. Excelente prólogo a cargo del traductor M.A. Rodilla de la U. de Salamanca
En inglés: "A theory of Justice"  Harvard U. Press

[Benzino Napaloni]

Ojo, que esto son "average transaction prices", no aporta ninguna información acerca de el valor de cualquier propiedad en particular respecto a su valor histórico.

Este tipo https://twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1OyKAWmvEkNJb (video) argumenta que dado que no se vende un colín (las ventas han caído un 19% durante el último año) y que los más impactados por los tipos (tamaño de la hipoteca) y el aumento del coste de vida y disparados alquileres (incapacidad de ahorrar), lo más probable es que en general se muevan propiedades con un valor más alto

El cambio de cromos para fingir actividad es un truco muy habitual en estos casos.

En todos los negocios y aspectos de la vida hay que tener un poco de resiliencia. Si hay un problema coyuntural, es bueno dar un apoyo y una cobertura. Si no, nos vendríamos abajo ante el menor contratiempo. Pero cuando es algo estructural, es una actitud suicida. Se va a quemar dinero y recursos para, en el mejor de los casos, retrasar lo inevitable. Y normalmente a costa de agravarlo.

Además, rescataríamos aquí algo propio de las caídas prolongadas y que ya se habló en la crisis de 2008: los rebotes del "gato muerto". La pelota que va botando, y que mientras cada poco parece que la caída se detiene, en realidad sigue rodando hasta el sótano. Pasó algo muy parecido en los primeros años de la Gran Depresión en EEUU, a cada parón se auguraba el final de la crisis, y el PIB no empezó a crecer otra vez hasta 1934. Y sólo la guerra generó suficiente demanda como para acabar de reactivar la economía.

La bestia del ladrillo se resiste a morir, pero su suerte está sentenciada.

[Derby]

https://investorplace.com/2023/10/housing-market-crash-wells-fargo-warns-of-1980s-recession/

Housing Market Crash: Wells Fargo Warns of 1980s Recession

Big bank economists just sounded the alarm on a potentially imminent housing market crash

*Fears of a housing market crash are rising as mortgage interest rates hover near 8%.

*Wells Fargo economists just warned of a potential 1980s-style real estate recession.

*Investors don’t need to panic, but they should keep tabs on housing market fluctuations.

If you were around in the early 1980s, then you know what high interest rates can do to the U.S. economy and real estate market. So, after a series of interest rate hikes earlier this year, could a housing market crash and recession be just around the corner? It’s definitely a possibility, at least according to one group of experts.

As you may have heard, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), National Association of Realtors (NAR) and National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) wrote a letter to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell earlier this month. They pointed out that mortgage interest rates have now “reached a 23-year high, dragging application activity down to a low last seen in 1996.”

These associations practically begged Powell to “not contemplate further rate hikes.” Meanwhile, the 30-year fixed U.S. mortgage interest rate hovered near 8% not long ago. Could a real estate implosion happen in the coming months?

Wells Fargo Issues a Housing Market Crash Alert

In a new commentary piece, Wells Fargo economists made their take on the situation crystal-clear. The article is titled “Rising Borrowing Costs Stand to Tip the Housing Sector Back into Recession.”

In the article, the Wells Fargo economists referred to the aforementioned letter sent to Powell by the real estate associations. Furthermore, they compared that letter to a strange incident. Back in 1980, “home builders sent a piece of lumber to the Federal Reserve asking for ‘help’ in boosting housing demand via lower interest rates.”

On top of that, the Wells Fargo article observed that mortgage applications for purchase “have retreated in recent weeks.” Not only that, but these applications, as of Oct. 20, have “fallen to the lowest level since 1995.” Thus, the not-so-subtle message is that a 1980s-style real estate recession is possible.(...)

https://wellsfargo.bluematrix.com/links2/html/57e8cd0d-f73a-4bea-aba8-9360d6822cf4

Rising Borrowing Costs Stand to Tip the Housing Sector Back into Recession

Prospects for a Housing Rebound Dim as Mortgage Rates Turn Up

Summary
The Residential Sector Restricted by Higher Interest Rates

The US economy as a whole has shown a remarkable degree of resilience this year despite markedly higher interest rates. A strong labor market and moderating inflation have raised hopes that the US economy can avoid a recession. Unfortunately, not every sector of the economy has been as sturdy in the face of rising debt costs. After generally improving in the first half of 2023, the residential sector now appears to be contracting alongside the recent move higher in mortgage rates. Although mortgage rates may gradually descend once the Federal Reserve begins to ease monetary policy, financing costs are likely to remain elevated relative to recent norms. A "higher for longer" interest rate environment would likely not only weigh on demand, but could also constrain supply by reducing new construction and discouraging prospective sellers carrying low mortgage rates from listing their homes for sale.


Source: NAR, Freddie Mac and Wells Fargo Economics

Housing is Once Again Under Pressure

The National Association of Realtors recently sent a letter to fiscal and monetary policymakers proposing a list of actions that, in their view, would reduce mortgage rates and bolster housing activity, which generally has turned lower since the start of 2022 when the Federal Reserve first began raising the federal funds target range. It is not uncommon for policymakers to hear directly from industry associations about market conditions. The letter is reminiscent of when, in 1980, home builders sent a piece of lumber to the Federal Reserve asking for “help” in boosting housing demand via lower interest rates. In the late 1970s and early 1980s, high inflation led to tighter monetary policy and sharply higher mortgage rates. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year mortgage rate peaked at nearly 19% in 1981. The run-up in rates spurred a severe contraction in new single-family construction, which dropped nearly 65% between April 1978 and February 1982.

The plea for assistance from housing industry participants, both in the early 1980s and more recently, illustrates the severe impact higher interest rates can have on the residential sector. After perking up at the start of year, nearly every facet of housing activity has shown signs of relapse as the Fed has maintained a restrictive policy stance and mortgage rates have breached 7.0%. In September, existing home sales extended a three-month streak of declines and dropped to a 3.96 million-unit pace, the slowest sales pace since October 2010. Mortgage applications for purchase have retreated in recent weeks and, as of October 20, have fallen to the lowest level since 1995. In September, the Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index reported that 84% of consumers were pessimistic about homebuying conditions, a new survey high. Single-family construction has not yet turned down, but the NAHB Housing Market Index, which reflects home builder confidence, has declined since July, suggesting new construction may soon begin to slow.

The recent decline in existing home sales is not exactly surprising. The widespread use of debt to finance transactions means housing is one of the most interest-rate sensitive parts of the economy. The FOMC’s campaign to lower inflation through higher interest rates has resulted in 30-year mortgage rates rising from an average of 3% in 2021 to 7.5% in the first two weeks of October. The Fed does not directly control mortgage rates, but tighter monetary policy has been one factor driving up Treasury yields, which do help determine mortgage rates.

Quantitative tightening, the Fed’s process of reducing their balance sheet by, in part, allowing a passive run-off of its holdings of mortgage backed securities, may also playing a role in exerting upward pressure on financing costs for home buyers. Since early 2022, the spread between the average 30-year mortgage rate and the 10-year Treasury yield has widened to around 300 bps from the 160 bps spread averaged historically. The spread tends to widen during periods of economic uncertainty and bond market volatility, but seldom has the gap been this wide for this long. Put differently, if the spread between 10-year yields and 30-year mortgage rates followed historical averages, mortgage rates would be approximately 6.4% currently based on the 4.8% 10-year yield averaged so far in October.


Source: Mortgage Bankers Association and Wells Fargo Economics


Source: Freddie Mac, Bloomberg Finance L.P. and Wells Fargo Economics

Rising Financing Costs Further Erode Affordability

The rise in borrowing costs has been a setback for housing affordability. According to the NAR, the average principal and interest payment for borrowers using a 30-year fixed rate mortgage was $2,234 in August, up 26% from the $1,770 in the same month the prior year. The increase in monthly payments has far exceeded growth in median family income, which was up 5% over the same period. Mortgage rates have only moved higher since August, which points to an even higher monthly mortgage payment for borrowers in the months ahead.

The backtrack in affordability is not solely due to higher financing costs. After declining throughout the second half of 2022, home prices have ticked up for most of 2023. The CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI) has risen in each month so far this year, and as of July, was up 1% on a year-over-year basis. The renewed rise in home prices partly reflects sturdy underlying demand for homes. As we have noted previously, the Millennial generation is now estimated to be the largest generation in the United States, surpassing the Baby Boomers. Many of the Millennials are entering or are in the midst of the prime home buying years which coincide with major life events such as marriage and child-rearing. As such, this cohort tends to view single-family housing as more of a necessity and may be more willing to stretch a budget, withdraw from a retirement plan or lean on the assistance of family in order to purchase a home. This demographic is poised to be supportive of demand for the foreseeable future, although worsening affordability conditions will likely weigh on overall home buying

Another factor boosting home prices is the remarkably shallow supply of homes for sale. In September, the count of existing single-family homes available homes for sale was one million, which equates to just 3.4 months of supply at the current sales pace. Although months' supply has gradually increased this year, it remains below the 3.9 months averaged prior to the pandemic and beneath the 4-5 months range that usually indicates a healthy balance between supply and demand. For context, months' supply peaked at nearly 11 months in 2010 in the aftermath of the Great Recession, a supply increase that coincided with a 26% cumulative decline in home values.


Source: NAR and Wells Fargo Economics


Source: NAR and Wells Fargo Economics

Supply is Starting to Gradually Rise From Record Low Levels

Higher mortgage rates are contributing to the scarcity of existing homes for sale. The leg up in financing costs has left 82% of mortgage holders with a rate below 5% as of Q2, meaning the vast majority of those with a mortgage would be trading into a significantly more expensive monthly payment. Fannie Mae's Home Purchase Sentiment Index for September revealed that prospective sellers cited disadvantageous mortgage rates as the top reason why they believe it’s a bad time to sell a home, which adds to the evidence that sellers are not enthusiastic about shedding the "golden handcuffs" of lower mortgage rates. Not every homeowner has a mortgage and thus are not as put off by the higher rate environment. Roughly 42% of current homeowners own their properties outright. That noted, the recent upturn in mortgage rates is likely playing a large role in the suppressing new inventory although structural factors, such as demographics, changing housing preferences and sluggish pace of new construction since the housing bust in 2006 also explain the supply shortfall.

Although inventories are likely to remain constrained for the foreseeable future, there have been recent signs that inventory is starting to increase as sales slowdown. During the week ending October 8th, Redfin's measure of new listings was down by only 3.9% compared to the same week in 2022, the smallest annual difference since July 2022. Total inventories are unlikely to meaningfully improve in the years ahead, yet supply may gradually grow as the macroeconomic backdrop deteriorates and more sellers are forced to list their homes for sale. Even if the economy remains resilient, inventory could increase as more pent-up supply is unleashed. Housing turnover remains low at present, yet current owners intent on trading up or downsizing will eventually come to terms with a higher rate environment. According to Zillow Group Population Science’s Quarterly Survey of Homeowner Intentions and Preferences (QSHIP), 23% of homeowners surveyed in June 2023 report that they intend to list their home for sale in the next three years, up from 15% a year ago. Prospective sellers most often cited a desire for an upgraded home with nicer features, were expecting higher income or have a growing family as reasons influencing their decision to potentially sell and move.


Source: Redfin and Wells Fargo Economics


Source: NAHB and Wells Fargo Economics

Sturdy Demand for New Homes Boosting Single-Family Construction

In contrast to the resale market, the new home market currently appears to be taking the hits from higher rates better in stride. New home sales rose 12.3% in September, a monthly rise that equates to an over 30% year-over-year gain. The relative outperformance of the new home market can mostly be explained by builders using pricing incentives to attract buyers. October's NAHB builder survey revealed that 62% of builders offered sales incentives during the survey period, tied with the previous cycle high reached in December 2022. In addition to lower prices and offering amenity upgrades, many builders have successfully offered rate buydowns to incentivize affordability-crunched buyers as mortgage rates have risen over the past two years.

Looking ahead, the ascent in rates will certainly test this strategy. Not every builder has the ability to offer rate buydowns, and thus are more sensitive to upward changes in mortgage rates. What's more, leaning on incentives is at least partially dependent on buyers being present to be incentivized, and builders are now reporting that buyer traffic has thinned. After steadily rising throughout the first half of 2023, the prospective buyer traffic subcomponent of the NAHB Housing Market Index fell back to a reading of 26 in October, close to the cycle low of 20 reached in December 2022.

Souring builder sentiment presages a slowdown in single-family construction ahead. That said, builders still appear to be starting new projects. In September, single-family starts rose 3.2% over the month to a 963K-unit pace. Single-family permits continue to climb, with permits rising for the past eight consecutive months. The sustained improvement in permits suggests that builders are still encouraged by lean resale inventory and ability to attract buyers by offering lower prices. Still, the recent increase in financing costs likely means more discounting will be needed, which stands to further chip away at the bottom lines of builders and lead to slower pace of new development.

In contrast to single-family construction, multifamily development appears to be downshifting rapidly. Multifamily permits plunged 14.3% in September to a 508K-unit pace, the lowest level since October 2020. As we recently published, the near record count of apartment units currently under construction, deteriorating apartment market conditions and tighter credit access, is likely to weigh heavily on multifamily construction moving forward. That noted, deteriorating single-family affordability is one potential tailwind for multifamily demand.


Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, NAHB and Wells Fargo Economics


Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, NAHB and Wells Fargo Economics

Looking ahead, higher mortgage rates are likely to worsen affordability for home buyers and bring about a weaker pace of residential activity in the near term. The recent retrenchment in mortgage applications for purchase is a sign that home buying is likely to take another step back over coming months. Assuming our forecast that the Federal Reserve has finished hiking rates and cuts are in store next year is accurate, then mortgage rates should move lower as monetary policy eases. That noted, financing costs are likely to remain elevated compared to recent history. Even if rates do drop, a deteriorating macroeconomic backdrop marked by higher unemployment and slower income growth will serve to keep the pace of home sales relatively sluggish.

After averaging 3.79 million-unit pace in 2023, we look for the pace of existing single-family home sales to rise by a modest 4.4% to 3.95 million in 2024. The balance of risks for this forecast are tilted to the upside, as even a minor dip in borrowing costs might lead sidelined buyers to jump at the chance to secure a lower rate. Low inventories, however, will prevent a forceful rebound in resales and bolster new home sales. We look for new home sales to increase 4% from an anticipated 683K-unit pace to 710k-unit pace in 2024.

Bearing this in mind, we now expect a slightly softer pace of home price appreciation in the years ahead. Higher financing costs are likely to both weigh on demand and constrain supply, which will allow home prices to maintain a positive trajectory. As such, we look for the S&P Case-Shiller National Home Price Index to increase 1.8% in 2023 and 2.5% in 2024. In terms of new residential construction, multifamily permits have declined sharply in recent months, which points to a downshift in starts in coming years. The recent drop in home builder confidence is evidence that single-family construction may begin to moderate as higher mortgage rates test builders' ability to offer rate buy-downs to attract new buyers. That noted, a structural shortfall of single-family supply will likely continue to boost new development.

[Derby]

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/01/fed-meeting-heres-what-changed-in-the-new-statement.html

Here’s what changed in the new Fed statement

This is a comparison of Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee statement with the one issued after the Fed’s previous policymaking meeting in September.

Text removed from the September statement is in red with a horizontal line through the middle.

Text appearing for the first time in the new statement is in red and underlined.

Black text appears in both statements.

https://www.ft.com/content/5b01c471-6289-41a0-9044-97b6df48b507

US Federal Reserve holds interest rates at 22-year high

Central bank keeps door open to another rate hike after US economy expanded at ‘strong pace’

[Cadavre Exquis]

Negocios TV | ÚLTIMA HORA: La FED mantiene la pausa: tipos de interés en el 5,5% en EEUU y cae el bono americano

Saludos.

[errozate]

El compañero Saturno nos trae en su último post la visión comunista que lleva a liquidar, esencialmente, una perspectiva antropológica que representa lo mejor que la humanidad ha conseguido en términos materiales y espirituales a lo largo de su historia.

Propugna una sociedad sin derecho de propiedad en la que todo lo que era nuestro pasa a estar a disposición de quien, en realidad, controle la masa. Una sociedad en la cual el ser humano es un ente puramente material y sin destino espiritual alguno. Esencialmente un animal doméstico a disposición del Poder. Nos anuncia Cuba, Venezuela o la Rusia Sovética.

Es evidente que con el compañero Saturno estamos de acuerdo en algunas cosas pero también que discrepamos rotundamente en otras. La más importante  diferencia no es el derecho de propiedad, que también,sino  la naturaleza misma del ser humano.
La idea o el concepto de humanidad hay que definirla y nuestra cultura la ha definido como compuesta de seres individuales, responsables moralmente de sus actos, con capacidad y derecho natural a la "agencia" de la propia vida, dotados de espíritu inmortal al menos en el universo que conocemos y todo ello con base mucho más científica que la ya desenmascarada falacia de el ser humano como ente estrictamente material e intrascendente.

Desde esta perspectiva el ser humano ha de ser libre --requisito esencial del comportamiento moral según el legado de Kant-- y... ¿cómo puede serlo sin autonomía con respecto al Poder? ¿Cómo se pueden conquistar grados de autonomía sin un derecho sacrosanto a los frutos de su ingenio y de su trabajo?  De ninguna manera es eso posible.

Durante el siglo XX fue profesor en Harvard un comunista (cripto-comunista según quienes lo han estudiado seriamente) John Rawls. Tanto lo era que llegó a dictaminar la inexistencia del mérito como cualidad del carácter moral. Es decir, otorgaba al ser humano la cualidad de miembro indiferenciado de un rebaño.
Pues bien, incluso alguien tan abiertamente totalitario como Rawls (escondido toda su vida bajo la etiqueta  de Liberal y Kantiano) propugnaba que no se cortase toda la autonomía y propiedad a los más dotados para que fuese posible esquilmarlos pero sin que se perdiese el  beneficio social de su esfuerzo.
Buen ejemplo de cinismo.
Vivimos momentos de suma gravedad para España que está a punto de acelerar su mutación en un Estado Fallido como Cuba o Venezuela.
Una España indefensa ante la bajeza moral y la carencia de nobleza por parte de sus gobernantes capaces de prostituir cualquier institución so pretexto de continuar en el Poder como sea. El "como sea" que grabó a fuego Zapatero lo tenemos delante de nuestros ojos.

Lamento profundamente que esto suceda durante los últimos años de mi vida.

Bueno, estimado Manu, como no podía ser de otra forma, yo, tengo otra percepción de las cosas, incluido el conflicto en Oriente Medio (si no os gusta la palabra conflicto, podéis poner la que os guste).

Esta semana salí de mi casa y me fui andando por un camino que me levó a cruzar el río Nervión, por Arrigorriaga, el pueblo de Argala; y por Zaratamo, tiré para arriba, entre el monte Artanda a la izquierda y el Upo a la derecha, podía haber bajado Artanda hacia Ugao-Miraballes, el pueblo de Urrutikoetxea Bengoetxea, pero subí al Upo y bajé hacia Usansolo, un barrio que se quiere independizar da Galdakao; y yendo por la presa de Lekuebaso, hacia Usansolo, me encontré con un hombre que me contó una historia en euskera y me dijo lo siguiente:
- Aquí en Usansolo todo castellano; pero, mira, había un hombre aquí que le decían Antonio "el vasco", y debió decir a las hijas que cuando muriera le pusieran en la sepultura (el señor dijo esquela pero yo entendí sepultura) un epitafio en euskera y el alcalde se negó. Un alcalde cuya madre no sabía hablar castellano. Y las hijas, atendiendo al deseo de Antonio "el vasco", recurrieron, fueron quemando etapas judiciales, hasta que un juez, que me dijo en Bilbao (pero es posible que fuera en Burgos), dictaminó que la sepultura era privada, y el alcalde ya mandaba bastante fuera del cementerio, y que se abstuviera de lo que la familia hiciera en una sepultura privada dentro del cementerio. Y luego, me dijo el señor, y a ese alcalde después lo mató ETA.

Ni que decir tiene la impresión que me causó el alcalde en cuestión. Respecto al tema de ETA, está claro que el alcalde como ser humano tenía unos derechos y nunca se puede justificar su muerte, por muy desafortunado que nos pareciera el alcalde. Era humano y los derechos humanos le asistían, aunque él hubiera pisoteado los derechos humanos de Antonio "el vasco" y de su familia.

https://archivo-historico.s3.amazonaws.com/media/books/24_Entre_la_muerte_y_la_clandestinidad_cc.pdf

Ahí en la página 20 de las víctimas olvidadas por la sociedad  enferma puedes leer en hecho en sí. Y desde la página 17 puedes leer lo buenísimo que era este hombre.

Y aquí la esquela de su hermano en ese euskera que según tú en tu atrevida ignorancia no existe:

https://esquelas.elcorreo.com/necrologicas/martin-legorburu-ibarreche-234225.html

Y el libro que he mencionado antes, del olvido de las víctimas de ETA. Bueno el caso es que, es verdad que tenía ya unos añitos, pero el que me contó la historia recordaba.

Y estoy convencido de que mucha gente del pueblo recuerda. De hecho, me lo han contado a mí ahorita mismo.
Pero creo que los que hablan de olvido hablan de que no se le rindan homenajes a este hombre porque fue víctima de ETA.

Creo que no se puede negar el crimen de ETA. Sin duda.

Pero en esos años, años 70, finales del Franquismo o con el Generalísimo muero, mientras otra gente como Urmeneta (había hecho la guerra con el Requeté y había estado en la División Azul) en Pamplona daba la protección necesaria para las ikastolas en la capital navarra para iniciar la educación en euskera, mientras tanto este individuo, que la derecha reclama su vasquismo con ocho apellidos vascos (algo que solo mencionáis los nacionales). Mira:44

https://twitter.com/bizkaiavizcaya/status/1685219350737743872


Y te lo repito, era un ser humano, y le asistían los derechos humanos, que son para todos los seres humanos. Con lo cual, el asesinato de ETA no tiene justificación ninguna. No vale el "algo habrá hecho", no vale era guardia civil, no vale era militar, no vale era miembro de ETA. No, no vale, porque todos los seres humanos, todos, tienen unos derechos: derechos humanos. Aunque nos parezca que por su condición son gusanos. No, todos tienen derechos humanos.
Aunque sean musulmanes. Aunque sean pobres. Aunque sean inmigrantes. Manu, son humanos, son como nosotros y tienen unos derechos humanos que les asisten o ¿no?

Manu, el franquismo fue horroroso.

Bueno, pero el chascarrillo, si en el monte en lugar de decidir bajar a Galdakao, hubiese decidido bajar a Ugao-Miraballes, habría bajado al pueblo de Urrutikoetxea Bengoetxea, para ti Ternera, y curiosamente en la entrevista de Evole, que no la he visto, parece que reconoce un crimen amnistiado y es la del alcalde Legorburu Ibarreche.

Eso en una caminata. Pero así es la cosa aquí. Que Dios nos ampare.

Está claro que entre la gente franquista, había gente buena, como Urmeneta, y había otra gente fuera de época como Legorburu Ibarreche. No es cuestión de ideologías, hay gente buena y gente mala. No es cuestión de ideología. Tú ponte en el caso de que el alcalde de un pueblo de Segovia prohíbe poner un epitafio en castellano en una sepultura privada. Eso es lo que sucedió pero en vasco con este hombre "buenísimo". Pues que os quede claro. La gente del pueblo no le olvida; pero no le olvida por esta anécdota.

Y con el tema de Israel veo lo mismo. Veo que se reconocen los derechos humanos de unos, pero los de otros es como que si esto, como que lo otro y como que no fueran seres humanos; pero, Manu. son seres humanos aunque sean musulmanes.

[Derby]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/wework-plans-to-file-for-bankruptcy-as-early-as-next-week-1fdcb6a5

WeWork Plans to File for Bankruptcy as Early as Next Week

Once a venture capital-backed star with an astronomical valuation, the flexible-office-space provider is now preparing for chapter 11 protection

(...)As of June, WeWork maintained 777 locations across 39 countries, including 229 locations in the U.S., according to securities filings. WeWork has an estimated $10 billion in lease obligations due starting from the second half of this year through the end of 2027 and an additional $15 billion starting in 2028.

[Benzino Napaloni]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/wework-plans-to-file-for-bankruptcy-as-early-as-next-week-1fdcb6a5

WeWork Plans to File for Bankruptcy as Early as Next Week

Once a venture capital-backed star with an astronomical valuation, the flexible-office-space provider is now preparing for chapter 11 protection

(...)As of June, WeWork maintained 777 locations across 39 countries, including 229 locations in the U.S., according to securities filings. WeWork has an estimated $10 billion in lease obligations due starting from the second half of this year through the end of 2027 and an additional $15 billion starting in 2028.

De valer 47.000 millones a bajar la persiana: WeWork se asoma a la quiebra

La pandemia fue un golpe fuerte, pero como dice el artículo, las excentricidades del director les han pasado factura.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista-inmobiliaria/20231101/page/2/textview

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista-inmobiliaria/20231101/page/2/textview

Cambia el perfil del comprador de vivienda: no necesita financiación bancaria, tiene ahorros

https://www.eleconomista.es/vivienda-inmobiliario/noticias/12516758/10/23/esqueletos-de-ladrillo-un-10-de-los-proyectos-de-vivienda-terminan-en-obra-parada.html

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista-inmobiliaria/20231101/page/8/textview

El sector del alquiler necesita ganar tamaño y seguridad jurídica

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista-inmobiliaria/20231101/page/12/textview

¿Nos podemos permitir la revolución sostenible?

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista-inmobiliaria/20231101/page/18/textview

CARMEN CHICHARRO. Directora Comercial, Marketing e Innovación en Metrovacesa

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista-inmobiliaria/20231101/page/22/textview

Europa muestra ciudades más habitables que Estados Unidos

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista-inmobiliaria/20231101/page/24/textview

Málaga sin frenos: el precio de la vivienda se dobla en seis años

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista-inmobiliaria/20231101/page/28/textview

El 80% de las empresas van a invertir más en tecnología

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista-inmobiliaria/20231101/page/29/textview

¿Qué va a pasar con el precio de la vivienda en alquiler el próximo año?

La firma de hipotecas acelera las caídas: se desploma un 22% en agosto

Metrovacesa reina en Los Cerros: compra la cartera de suelos de Sareb

Hines construirá una nave logística en Madrid de 25.000 m2

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista-inmobiliaria/20231101/page/30/textview

La Administración no acompaña al sector en el camino a la sostenibilidad

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista-inmobiliaria/20231101/page/34/textview

Cómo las ‘proptech’ están transformando la forma en que adquirimos viviendas

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista-inmobiliaria/20231101/page/36/textview

Industrialización e inteligencia artificial, el futuro de la postventa

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista-inmobiliaria/20231101/page/42/textview

Necesidad de rehabilitación a gran escala

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://cincodias.elpais.com/opinion/2023-11-01/una-opcion-polemica-que-debe-ser-bien-explicada.html

https://cincodias.elpais.com/companias/2023-10-31/zegona-confirma-la-compra-del-total-de-vodafone-espana-por-5000-millones.html

https://cincodias.elpais.com/companias/2023-11-01/triste-adios-de-vodafone-tras-su-fracaso-en-espana.html

https://cincodias.elpais.com/companias/2023-11-01/zegona-tira-del-veterano-mas-duro-para-su-apuesta-mas-fuerte.html

https://cincodias.elpais.com/companias/2023-11-01/el-pacto-de-la-ceo-de-vodafone-con-espana-es-mejor-que-ninguno.html

https://cincodias.elpais.com/companias/2023-10-31/sepi-reconoce-que-estudia-una-eventual-adquisicion-de-una-participacion-en-telefonica.html

https://cincodias.elpais.com/companias/2023-11-01/la-sepi-quiere-recuperar-el-imperio-industrial-desmontado-con-las-privatizaciones-del-pp.html

https://www.eleconomista.es/opinion/noticias/12517989/10/23/logico-rechazo-de-amancio-ortega.html

https://www.eleconomista.es/telecomunicaciones/noticias/12517594/10/23/amancio-ortega-rechaza-el-plan-del-gobierno-para-entrar-en-el-capital-de-telefonica.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://cincodias.elpais.com/companias/2023-10-31/indra-gana-un-26-mas-hasta-septiembre-tras-disparar-sus-ingresos-de-defensa.html

https://cincodias.elpais.com/companias/2023-10-31/fcc-gana-un-12-mas-hasta-septiembre-pese-al-impacto-del-tipo-de-cambio.html

https://cincodias.elpais.com/companias/2023-10-31/ferrovial-se-apoya-en-sus-autopistas-y-en-heathrow-para-elevar-un-12-las-ventas-y-mas-del-34-el-ebitda.html

https://cincodias.elpais.com/companias/2023-10-30/acciona-y-ohla-pujan-por-el-aeropuerto-del-proyecto-millonario-de-republica-dominicana.html

https://cincodias.elpais.com/companias/2023-10-31/endesa-gana-1059-millones-hasta-septiembre-un-36-menos-por-el-alza-de-los-costes-financieros-y-el-impuesto-a-las-energeticas.html

Saludos.