PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Invierno 2024

[Benzino Napaloni]

El PLU necesita traer inmigración en masa para mantener el chiringo.

Good luck with that.

Momento perfecto para rescatar esto.

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12666108/02/24/el-fracaso-de-la-contratacion-en-origen-250-extranjeros-para-700000-vacantes-en-la-construccion-.html

Saludos.

 

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/3d7b4bb4-8fab-41bd-b5ce-108f5fb995ad

Investors left in the dark after US companies fail to file on time

ADM, Chemours, Mattel and NYCB are among groups admitting that weaknesses in controls delayed financial reports

The number of large US companies missing deadlines to file their annual reports has jumped this year, leaving investors in the dark as executives and their auditors wrestle with accounting problems and weaknesses in their financial controls.

The annual rush to sign off on financial statements has this week exposed issues at companies ranging from the chemicals giant Chemours to the toymaker Mattel.

Chemours, the maker of Teflon, put its chief executive and two most senior finance executives on administrative leave on Thursday while it investigates financial practices that may have affected executive bonuses.

The agricultural products group Archer Daniels Midland, which put its chief financial officer on leave in January while it investigated accounting practices at its food ingredients business, said on Friday that it could take another two weeks to finalise its audited figures for 2023.

Shares in New York Community Bancorp were meanwhile down by a quarter on Friday after the regional lender delayed its annual report, saying it had found material weaknesses in the internal controls that guide how it reviews loans.

Mattel, the toy company, said on Thursday that it had also found weaknesses in its internal controls over financial reporting, and that it would need more time to get its annual report out.

According to the data provider AlphaSense, 16 companies with market capitalisations over $1bn have said so far this year that they would miss deadlines to file annual reports, which is 60 days after the financial year-end for large companies. That is almost double the number from last year, when nine companies said they needed extra time.

The auditors of large US companies are required not just to sign off on the annual figures themselves but also on the internal controls and systems that a company used to produce them. Regulators require that weaknesses in those controls are prominently flagged to investors.

Chemours said it was examining “one or more” potential material weaknesses in its internal controls, and a series of other issues including how whistleblower complaints are handled and whether senior executives had set the right “tone at the top”.

As well as chief executive Mark Newman, the company placed chief financial officer Jonathan Lock and controller Camela Wisel on leave.

Chemours, which was spun out of Dupont in 2015, said it was examining how working capital was managed, and how that affected financial metrics on which executive bonuses were based. Its shares slumped 32 per cent on the news, wiping $1.4bn from its market value. In afternoon trading on Friday, they were up 2.8 per cent on the day but still 30 per cent below Wednesday’s level.

[Derby]

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-housing-market-overvalued-price-growth-mortgage-supply-fitch-ratings-2024-3

The US housing market is slowly thawing, but 91% of homes are still overvalued, Fitch says

*Homes in 91% of US metro areas were overvalued in the third quarter, Fitch Ratings reported.

*Home prices are 11.1% overvalued, an uptick from prior quarters, as wage growth lagged.

*December notched the highest annual price gain since 2022, S&P Global found.

The US housing market is seeing some signs of loosening amid an uptick in sales and inventory, but last year's price growth has only intensified the overvaluation in the market, Fitch Ratings highlighted on Friday.

Homes were 11.1% overvalued as of the third quarter, a trend extending to 91% of US metro areas. Given that prices kept rising into the fourth quarter, Fitch expects overvaluation to have continued through the end of last year.

"There are signs of a gradual thawing in the U.S. housing market, as indicated by slight improvements in new home sales and inventory," the rating agency said. "Challenges such as high mortgage rates and elevated home prices, which aggravate the affordability issue, continue to moderate the pace of this normalization."

According to S&P Global, December recorded the highest annual gain in home prices since 2022, with a 5.5% year-over-year increase.

"Looking back at the year, 2023 appears to have exceeded average annual home price gains over the past 35 years," Brian Luke, S&P Dow Jones Indices' head of commodities, real and digital assets, said in the report.

In this environment, lagging wage growth has meant that homebuyers now need to earn around 80% more than they did pre-pandemic, Zillow recently found.

Further headwinds to housing affordability come from rising mortgage rates, with the median payment rising from $2,055 to $2,134 in December, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported. Rates have continued climbing in February and may prove to be a damper on spring buying.

For 2024, Fitch expects nominal national price growth to slow to 0%-3%, as tight home supply is likely to sustain current high prices. However, S&P noted that existing home sales were up 3.1% month-over-month in January, highlighting a potential boost to supply.

[Derby]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/torsten-sl%C3%B8k-the-fed-will-not-cut-rates-this-year-154544744.html

Torsten Sløk: The Fed 'will not cut rates this year'

Apollo Global's chief economist Torsten Sløk is throwing in the towel on rate cuts in 2024.

In an email on Friday, Sløk said the Federal Reserve "will not cut rates this year and rates are going to stay higher for longer" amid a resurgence in growth and stubborn inflation pressures. (Disclosure: Yahoo Finance is owned by Apollo Global Management.)

Financial markets entered 2024 expecting the Fed to cut rates six times this year. Sløk's call on Friday marks a departure from most peers on Wall Street, who still expect the central bank to have at least some room to ease rates off 23-year highs.

Forecasts from the Fed published in December showed Fed officials expected to cut rates three times this year. Updated forecasts from the Fed will be published on March 20 alongside its next monetary policy decision.

Sløk's note highlighted ten reasons why he sees the Fed holding off on rate cuts, which boil down to three general areas: inflation, growth, and the stock market.

"Underlying measures of trend inflation are moving higher," Sløk wrote.

A bevy of inflation data, including wages, alternative inflation measures from the Cleveland and Atlanta Federal Reserve banks, so-called "supercore" inflation, and manufacturing surveys, suggested durable inflation pressures.

Thursday's inflation reading showed the Fed's preferred measure, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, rose 0.4% over the prior month in January, the most in a year.

And while the annual rise in core PCE fell to a nearly three-year low, six-month annualized core PCE surged to 2.5% after two consecutive readings below the Fed's 2% target.

In terms of wages, January's jobs report showed average hourly earnings rose 4.5% over the prior year in the first month of 2024.

"Following the Fed pivot in December," Sløk wrote, "the labor market remains tight, jobless claims are very low, and wage inflation is sticky between 4% and 5%."

Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested in recent public comments that the data didn't yet pose a risk to the Fed bringing inflation back to 2%.

In a press conference on Jan. 30, Powell said wage increases are "not quite back to where they ... need to be in the longer run" for the Fed to reach its goals but added that this data was "moving in the right direction."

Next Friday's February jobs report will offer a crucial update on this front.

Earlier this week, we noted that growth forecasts continue to be revised higher on Wall Street, though these revisions were not yet seen as preventing the Fed from proceeding with rate cuts later this year.

On Thursday, for instance, Bank of America economist Michael Gapen raised his growth forecast for 2024 to 2.1% from 1.2%. The firm still expects three rate cuts this year from the Fed, starting in June.

"Growth expectations for 2024 saw a big jump following the Fed pivot in December and the associated easing in financial conditions," Sløk wrote. "Growth expectations for the US continue to be revised higher."

In December, Fed officials forecast GDP growth would come in at 1.4% this year. These outlooks will also be updated later this month.

Sløk concluded by detailing how financial conditions continue to ease, which is bolstering M&A markets, credit markets, IPO activity, and, of course, equities. The S&P 500 just finished its best February since 2015, and the Nasdaq closed at a record high on Thursday.

"The bottom line is that the Fed will spend most of 2024 fighting inflation," Sløk wrote.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/apollo-10-reasons-why-fed-wont-cut-rates-2024

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-01/boe-s-pill-warns-of-false-sense-of-security-on-inflation-drop

BOE’s Pill Warns of ‘False Sense of Security’ on Inflation Drop

Chief economist sees only ‘tentative’ proof pressures easing
Policy will remain restrictive even after interest rate cuts

Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill said officials must “guard against a false sense of security” as headline inflation falls sharply in the spring — potentially to below the 2% target — an indication of the caution he’s exercising in weighing when to cut interest rates.

Pill said he’s “some way off” voting to lower borrowing costs and that, even when the time comes, monetary policy will continue to be “restrictive,” bearing down on price pressures.(...)

[pollo]

A la vez que ocurre eso, Google está desarrollando una aplicación que genera videojuegos
https://twitter.com/_akhaliq/status/1761961459515322527

¿Pero buenos o malos? ¿Interesantes o no?

Porque para hacer ideas genéricas y refritos ya tenemos a paladas y no se venden muy allá.

Esto no parece que se vea venir y es una obviedad. Suponiendo claro, que no sea una inmensa vendida de moto, que probablemente es lo que acabe siendo.

[saturno]

LA PINZA.—

El superrequetecatacrack español ha sido el día 28 de febrero de 2024.

Lo importante del Sistema Estatal de Referencia de Precios de Alquiler de Vivienda (SERPAVI) es que es una extensión del Catastro y que, por el solo hecho de interrogar al SERPAVI, la base de datos fiscal mejora, y mucho. Todo inspector de Hacienda, todo acreedor financiero, todo empleador, todo inmobiliario, todo casero o inquilino y todo quisque, esté o no tensionada la zona —'esta zona va parriba'—, va a poder conocer la horquilla de precios oficiales del alquiler —que será la que le dé gana al Catastro— que servirá para estimaciones indirectas, eso sí, siempre que se sepa la certificación energética de la vivienda.

Yo también pensé - "Menuda pinza", pero sólo en consideración a los agentes involucrados: los particulares (menos de 5/10 pisos), las gestoras y el Estado.

Es decir, yo pensé en una pinza pero de efecto estadístico.
El que observas cuando tomas el intervalo entre precio mínimo/máximo y esperas al siguiente ejercicio fiscal.

¿Qué obervas?

Primero, las gestoras de alquiler están obligadas a fijar sus precios de acuerdo con el número absoluto (gestoras + particulares), por tanto se encuentran en competencia directa con los particulares. Competencia que al fijarse el intervalo Min/Max al valor de refencia se decanta a favor de las gestoras. Los particulares llevan las de perder.

Segundo, las gestoras tienen un peso relativo de 1 a 10 respecto de los particulares, o mejor dicho, por tanto tienen una influencian de 10 contra 1 frente a los particulares sobre el precio Min/Max del siguiente ejercicio fiscal.

Tercero, a precio de intervalo, por efecto de escala (costes administrativos, contables, de renovación) la rentabilidad de las gestoras es siempre positiva respecto de la rentabilidad de los particulares. Por tanto, el SERPAVI les ha puesto en bandeja un lleno completo de inquilinos, prácticamente garantizado

---

Ahora piensen qué pasará cuando se vayan revisando los intervalos Min/Max del Serpavi según vayan sucediendo los ejercicios fiscales. Piensen en la dinámica.

-- La rentabilidad de los partículares irá menguando, y si son marujas, se verán rápidamente superados por los costes fiscales o simplemente de gestion y mantenimiento de sus pisitos, al no beneficiarse de economías de escala ;

-- Para conseguir tener sus pisos ocupados, los particulares tendrán que ajustar sus precios dentro del intervalo Min/Max del SERPAVI, pues en otro caso, perderán dinero al sumar periodos de carencia sin inquilino (que huirá hacia una gestora -- con contratos de 7 años ¿verdad?)

-- Mientras la masa en valor absoluto de particulares determina el intervalo Min/Max, por simple efecto estadístico (del conjunto = particulares + gestoras) en los ejercicios siguientes, el SERPAVI dará intervalos inferiores a los del ejercicio N-1,

-- Como las Gestoras no tienen opción y están obligadas a mantenerse dentro el intervalo MIN/MAX, significa que la reducción estadística del intervalo Min/Max (por numero absoluto de referencias) se traducirá en los precios que las Gestoras estarán obligadas a reflejar.

Y es aquí donde se cierra la pinza. Porque si recuerdan que las Gestoras tienen una influencia (relativa) de 10 contra 1 contra los particulares, a un ligero descenso del rentabilidad para las  Gestoras responde una reducción severa de la rentabilidad de los particulares.

¿Visto? Es lo que entiendo que se llama cerrar la pinza.

----

Ahora pónganse en el despacho de una de esas Gestoras.
Su porción de mercado en números absolutos es ahora inferior al 5% (creo).
Por tanto, tienen delante un bulevar para incrementar cuota de mercado.

Son las Gestoras las que tienen esa pinza en la mano. Y la van a utilizar.
A lo que van es no sólo a ofrecer servicios de alquiler, sino a capturar el mercado de los particulares.

¿Cómo harías? Pues simplemente, bastará ir localizando los anuncios de particulares que sufran de carencia de inquilino, (Idealista ofrece seguramente servicios de ese tipo).

Hete aquí que contactan con el casero, y le dan una alternativa :

-- O cedes a la Gestora tu Pisito por un "jugoso" bonus (por ej, 10% del valor de la finca certificado por el Catastro) más un "jugoso" cánon a 30 años, y un % de la rentabilidad del alquiler a precio MAX del SERPAVI, descontadas la reformas y renovaciones energéticas y al día del IBI y de la comunidad.

-- O dejo en el buzón de tu inquilino un "jugoso" anuncio de alquiler a precio MIN del Serpavi, con un contrato a 7 años.  Si aún así encuentras inquilino, será de los que tendrás que desahuciar, con costes judiciales que te hunden para siempre, y fijate que quizás tendrás en su defensa al bufete de abogados de mi Gestora, je, je, a que tiene gracia... No, no, el pleito lo tendrás tú y tu okupa, mientras no firmes nada, yo no soy parte, y a tí te encontré en Idealista, te anuncias tú.

Vamos, no dejes pasar la oportunidad. Hala, firma aquí.
(El casero mira a su maruja, la maruja le sonríe, y los propietarios firman. Luego se van a comer langostinos con el cheque.)

----

Por último, ¿qué hay del Estado?

¿El Estado?
El Estado lo que hace es bonificar fiscalmente a las Gestoras que fijan alquileres inferiores al MIN del SERPAVI. ¿Visto? En el ejercicio siguiente, el intervalo MIN-MAX se reduce otra vuelta.
Inversamente, cualquier ligero ajuste de las cargas fiscales de los particulares tendrá el mismo efecto, pero no es imprescindible. No vayamos a perder votos, cuando el efecto es el mismo.

Cuando el parque de Gestoras supere en números absolutos por ejemplo el 50 % del parque de particulares, una sencilla bonificación fiscal de las Gestoras (estatal, CCAA o incluso municipios) bastará para apretar un poco más la pinza estadística.

El efecto de restructuración generará ingresos fiscales, actividad empresarial (renovaciones) y una profesionalización del sector.

----

Esto que describo no se inventa en 3 meses.
Es la orientación que han ido poniendo a punto entre las grandes Gestoras con proyectos financiados por la UE. Desde Francia, Suecia, Dinamarc, Austria, etc. y los fondos de EEUU que entraron en Alemania (que tampoco son tontos).

¿Nos os parece curioso que no se oigan protestar a las Gestoras?
No creo que estén estudiando la ley, la han diseñado ellas.
Esa Ley está literalmente hecha a su medida.

[senslev]

Esto debería ser ilegal (si no lo es).

https://elpais.com/espana/madrid/2024-03-01/viaje-al-piso-de-alquiler-mas-barato-de-todo-madrid-400-euros-por-6-metros-y-vater-en-el-exterior.html

[asustadísimos]

LA PINZA (CONT.).—

En suma, el 28 de febrero de 2024 se ha puesto en marcha, en España, la pinza monetario-fiscal definitiva contra las estúpidas expectativas de sobrevaloración de la vivienda.

Estamos ante una acción de fuerza conjunta de las dos partes de la soberanía financiera, concentrada el centro de gravedad del enemigo del capital.

La vivienda es sagrada, sí, pero en el sentido de que jamás tenía que haberse usado para hacer creer a los pobres que eran ricos.

[asustadísimos]

[https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/private-credit-characteristics-and-risks-20240223.html]

[Cadavre Exquis]

Yelp Says Remote-First Policy Boosted Job Apps By 43%, Led To a More Satisfied Workforce
Posted by BeauHD on Friday March 01, 2024 @09:02PM from the work-life-balance dept.

Since implementing a remote-first policy in 2021, Yelp says it's experienced a surge in job applications and a more satisfied workforce. Fortune reports:

Last year, the total number of job applicants was 43% higher compared to 2021, according to Yelp's 2024 Remote Work Report released earlier this month. The number of applicants for sales roles skyrocketed by 103%, and prospects for its general and administrative (G&A) positions shot up 52% over the same time period. Those increases fall in line with data that shows a tidal wave of applicants clamoring for remote jobs. "It's rewarding to see both the level of interest and the quality of our applicants," Carmen Amara, chief people officer at Yelp, told Fortune. "Remote work has allowed us to attract a number of candidates who previously would not have applied to Yelp due to their location."

Despite arguments that remote work weakens workers' connections and growth opportunities, Yelp says it has found the opposite to be true. About 90% of the company's more than 4,700 employees say they have found effective ways to collaborate remotely, and 91% say they are confident in upward career mobility while working out of the office. Flexible schedules have also facilitated a healthy work-life balance -- about 89% of the company's workers say they can manage personal and professional demands, and the same amount say that the remote model has allowed them to make positive changes for their wellbeing.

Notably, Yelp's global tenure has increased to 3.5 years in 2023, compared to 2.8 years the year prior. The company says it's using the money it saved from shutting down its underutilized offices in New York City, Chicago, and Washington D.C., to funnel back into employee benefits, professional development, and wellness reimbursements.

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/telecomunicaciones/noticias/12701363/03/24/stc-se-reune-con-pallete-y-le-confirma-que-llegara-al-99-del-capital-de-telefonica.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista/20240302/page/3/textview

Nuevo récord en el precio del alquiler

https://www.eleconomista.es/vivienda-inmobiliario/noticias/12700519/03/24/el-alquiler-sube-un-119-en-febrero-y-marca-un-nuevo-maximo-historico-asi-esta-en-cada-comunidad-.html

https://www.europapress.es/economia/finanzas-00340/noticia-banco-espana-confirma-euribor-cerro-febrero-3671-20240301154411.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12700733/03/24/la-inflacion-de-la-eurozona-cae-hasta-el-26-en-febrero-pero-no-servira-para-que-el-bce-mueva-ficha-con-las-bajadas-de-tipos.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/opinion/noticias/12701776/03/24/cara-y-cruz-de-la-subida-del-smi.html

Saludos.