PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Invierno 2024

[conejo]

PEQUEÑOS MULTI-POPRIETARIOS

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/db01741d-ee08-4e5e-9741-c8f25dd4b9fa

China sets ‘ambitious’ 5% growth target and flags risks to economy

Premier Li Qiang vows to tackle property crisis, high local debt and persistent deflation

China will target economic growth of about 5 per cent this year, a rate that analysts have described as “ambitious”, as the world’s second-largest economy battles challenges ranging from a property slowdown to weak investor confidence.

Premier Li Qiang, President Xi Jinping’s number two, announced a budget deficit target in line with last year’s figure and new special central government bonds but disappointed investors who had been hoping for a bigger spending boost for the economy.

“The foundation for the continuous recovery and improvement of our country’s economy is still not solid, with insufficient demand, overcapacity in some industries, weak societal expectations and many lingering risks,” Li said as he presented his “work report” to nearly 3,000 delegates crowded into the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.

Investors are watching this year’s meetings — known as the “Two Sessions” — of the National People’s Congress, the country’s rubber-stamp parliament, and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, the top advisory body, for clues on how Xi plans to tackle the slowing economy.

The report is the gathering’s keynote speech, laying out the party’s most important annual economic goals and setting the tone for policymakers for the rest of the year. Last year’s report also set the growth target at about 5 per cent, the lowest in years.

Xi, China’s most powerful leader since Mao Zedong, occupied a seat at the centre of the hall’s vast podium and silently watched Li’s hour-long address, which touched on plans to tackle high local government debt, support the ailing property sector and improve maternity policies to boost the lagging birth rate.



Li set a budget deficit target of 3 per cent of gross domestic product and announced Rmb1tn ($138.9bn) in ultra-long-term special central government bonds, which are used by Beijing to provide extra support for the economy.

He forecast that China would create more than 12mn urban jobs this year, targeting an unemployment rate of 5.5 per cent and inflation of 3 per cent. The country faces persistent deflation, with consumer prices falling at the fastest annual rate in 15 years in January.

Beijing’s military budget will increase 7.2 per cent, matching last year’s rate of rise. China has strengthened its military activities around Taiwan in recent years, and Li said Beijing would “resolutely oppose separatist activities aimed at Taiwan independence” and “unswervingly advance the great cause of the motherland’s reunification”.

The targets were widely in line with market expectations. But analysts cautioned that the 2024 target would be harder to achieve than in 2023, when growth, which came in at 5.2 per cent, was flattered by a low base effect during the pandemic.

“It will be a more challenging path to repeating 5 per cent growth in 2024,” said analysts at ING. They said consumption drove last year’s recovery but weak consumer confidence and a negative wealth effect would make this difficult to repeat in 2024.

“It’s positive that policymakers set such an ambitious growth target to demonstrate their pro-growth stance,” Larry Hu, Macquarie economist, wrote in a research note. But Hu said the speech gave little in the way of “new clues on how to achieve the target”.

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng China Enterprises index of large and liquid Chinese stocks fell 2.6 per cent on Tuesday. The CSI 300 index of Shanghai- and Shenzhen-listed companies closed the day up 0.7 per cent.



Li said the Rmb1tn special treasury bonds would be used to implement “major national strategies and building up security capacity in key areas”. Beijing said it would continue issuing the special bonds in coming years, which are not included in the government deficit.

Tian Xuan, associate dean at Tsinghua University’s PBC School of Finance and an NPC delegate, called the bonds “a very important signal of central fiscal efforts to support our high-quality economic development”.

Hui Shan, chief China economist at Goldman Sachs, noted that the last time China used special treasury bonds was in 2020, during the pandemic. “So to me, that’s a signal that the central government understands the challenge.”

She added that Beijing could always increase the headline budget deficit, which is only a small part of the picture, estimating that an “augmented fiscal deficit” covering a broader range of government spending was closer to 11.9 per cent last year.

The premier also promised a slightly higher quota for special local government bonds of Rmb3.9tn, compared with Rmb3.8tn last year.

Li laid out plans to increase government funding for science and technology research by 10 per cent from last year “to move faster to boost self-reliance” in the face of US efforts to stymie China’s semiconductor industry.

NPC members praised the emphasis on investing in high technology.

“Especially in artificial intelligence . . . we need to pay attention and invest in it, as it is closely related to new areas of industrialisation,” Hendrick Sin, co-founder of Hong Kong-listed mobile game publisher CMGE and an NPC delegate, told reporters as he left the venue.

Xi and his advisers have largely eschewed handouts to households, other than a mooted scheme to help consumers trade in home appliances and cars.

Li attributed a litany of achievements in 2023 to Xi, and called for officials to “rally more closely” around the Chinese Communist party “with comrade Xi Jinping at its core”.

[Derby]

https://www.americanbanker.com/news/troubles-at-nycb-highlight-pain-in-rent-regulated-real-estate

Troubles at NYCB highlight pain in rent-regulated real estate

The recent struggles of New York Community Bancorp, whose stock price has tumbled nearly 75% since the start of the year, is putting investors on high alert about the rapidly declining value of rent-regulated apartment loans in New York City.

Although banks have been making those loans for decades, the confluence of watershed legislation in 2019, rising interest rates and inflation has made it more difficult for landlords and property managers to turn a profit, said Wedbush Securities analyst David Chiaverini.

New York Community's concentration in the sector makes it an outlier among regional banks. Roughly one-fifth of all loans held by the Long island-based bank are exposed to the New York rent-regulated multifamily market, according to Wedbush.

New York Community built its business with landlords and property owners in the rent-regulated sector over the course of decades. But recent challenges, including an unexpected dividend cut and a poor fourth-quarter earnings report that included a large loss provision, have exacerbated scrutiny of the bank's vulnerability to weaknesses in the commercial real estate market.

As of Dec. 31, 2023, about 6% of the bank's $81.6-billion loan portfolio was made up entirely of rent-regulated multifamily loans, the bank said in its latest earnings report.

"The good news is that this is very much unique to New York Community Bank in terms of the outsized exposure that they have to this asset class," Chiaverini said. "The 2019 regulation laws that became more onerous, combined with interest rates having gone up as much as they have — that double whammy is what led to the most recent quarter's surprise in terms of how much [New York Community] needs to set aside."



At the end of last year, New York Community reported that it had about $18.3 billion of loans with rent-regulated exposure, about 14% of which were categorized as being at risk. In the fourth quarter, the bank took a $552 million provision for credit losses, up from $62 million in the previous quarter.

Since 2019, rent-regulated property valuations in New York City have been cut in half, said Seth Glasser, a multifamily real estate broker at Marcus & Millichap. The Housing Stability and Tenant Protection Act, passed in New York state that summer, was a turning point for rent-regulated properties, according to Glasser. The law capped rent increases, limited the size of returns that landlords could earn for making renovations and eliminated eviction plans, among other provisions.

Chiaverini said the five-year-old policy is squeezing net operating income at some rent-regulated properties, making it harder for borrowers when those loans mature in a higher-rate environment. While the costs of renovating and maintaining properties have increased, and rates have roughly doubled, rent increases have been forbidden, Glasser said.

New York Community's newly appointed CEO, Alessandro "Sandro" DiNello, said last month that the bank would be "laser-focused" on reducing its commercial real estate concentration as quickly as possible. For rent-regulated multifamily properties, though, Chiaverini said there's no quick fix.

Borrowers may not have the cash to pay down the principal on the prior loan, or to inject more equity into a refinanced deal, he said. That leaves banks to choose between bad options, including providing below-market-rate loans to their borrowers and potentially taking losses by foreclosing when property values are down.

Glasser said that selling the loans isn't a great option either, because decreased proceeds and higher rates mean that such transactions would require steep discounts.

"The banks are saying, 'We're not taking haircuts on our loan. We want 100 cents on the dollar or 95 cents on the dollar,'" Glasser said. "But no one's willing to pay 90-plus cents … so none of the notes sell."

Chiaverini said he also doesn't see loan sales as a viable option because of the discounts required for those transactions.

At New York Community, Chiaverini expects the situation to play out slowly. More than 80% of the bank's loans on buildings in which all of the units that are rent-regulated will mature in 2025 or later, giving the bank time to build its reserves, he said. He expects the bank's first-quarter numbers to be less messy, though he added that it's a "low bar" in comparison with last quarter.

New York Community's stock price fell another 23% on Monday after the bank's ratings were  downgraded on Friday by Fitch Ratings and Moody's Investors Service.

"New York Community, as opposed to seeing that outsized provision that they put up in the fourth quarter, they will gradually build the reserves, quarter by quarter," Chiaverini said. "It won't be a shock to the stock, but I think it'll be a headwind to the stock appreciating significantly in value, because other banks that aren't having this issue will be growing their earnings."

New York Community did not respond to multiple requests for comment.

At Valley National Bancorp, Webster Financial and Axos Financial, which also lend in the space, less than 4% of their total loan portfolios touch rent-regulated property. Banks have been pulling back from rent-regulated real estate lending, but those that are in the sector will be more conservative, likely decreasing their loan-to-value ratios, Chiaverini said.

Travis Lam, deputy chief financial officer at New Jersey-based Valley, said the bank doesn't try to be competitive in the rent-regulated multifamily market. He said that it lends based on existing cash flows, which has made its prices less attractive than those available from other lenders.

Valley's entirely-rent-regulated portfolio is $420 million, or less than 1% of its total loans. Some 3.6% of the bank's loans have a small portion of rent-regulated exposure.

"The reason that we only have $420 million of rent-regulated multifamily exposure is not necessarily because we have a view on the credit," Lam said. "It's because we're not competitive with some of the more aggressive players in the space from a pricing perspective, because we're conservative in the way that we underwrite."

[CHOSEN]

La planificación centralizada solo puede funcionar cuando el resultado es mejor que la planificación descentralizada.
Y con mucha violencia y represión. Del tipo de policía deteniendo a la gente por pasear.
Si.
Lo vimos hace unos años aunque ahora hacemos "como que no pasó".
Santa inocencia.
Como si mirar a otro lado convirtiera a los dirigentes públicos en honrados y capaces, justo lo que haría falta para que la planificación centralizada funcionase.
¿De verdad alguien cree que los mejores y más preparados, siquiera los medianos, son promocionados por el sistema?
Me parece que (en este foro) estamos tan entusiasmados en que alguien venga a solucionarnos la papeleta (solución planificada) que no estamos mirando si realmente queremos que esa sea la solución, ni siquiera estamos mirando que sea la solución óptima.

¿De verdad necesitamos PAGAR CUATRO VECES POR LO MISMO?
-Una, la vivienda inaccesible.
-Dos, el rescate.
-Tres, el embalsamiento (coste de oportunidad derivado de 15 años de SAREB)
-Cuatro, el re-rescate (que lo habrá).

¿Acaso la SAREB no es planificación central con el plácet de la UE?
Comparto que necesitábamos poner el escudo. Si.
Pero esto confirma mi tesis anterior al menos hasta el punto dos.
Dado que SAREB existe, queda confirmado el punto tres.
Hemos pagado tres veces por tener vivienda asequible... y todavía no la tenemos.
No lo veo.
Luego vendrán los pobrecitos pensionistas, y la eficiencia, y salvar el planeta, y ID digital, y salvar a los negritos, y, y... es un no parar.
El Leviathán está desbocado.

Me niego a asumir que las Armengoles tengan la mínima capacidad operativa o decisoria.
Ya la tuvieron y OS TRAICIONARON (a vosotros, no a mi).
Lo que me sorprende es la increíble capacidad de autoengaño de la que hacemos gala.
No confío en que nadie nos vaya a salvar de nada.

La retórica de "estafa generacional" es la más acertada, en mi opinión. Cuando miras a tu alrededor y no identificas a los estafados, significa que el perdedor eres tú. Los triunfadores ya sabemos quienes son.
Solamente estamos esperando a que la desincronización generacional respecto a los EEUU nos salve de que sigan arruinando al país.
Y me remito al inicio del post:
Si la planificación es democrática, es IMPOSIBLE que pueda funcionar.

[CHOSEN]

No quiero parecer anti-Estado, porque no era mi intención.
Es evidente que la sociedad tiene que estar organizada.
Solo quiero poner de manifiesto que estamos caminando sobre la línea roja.
Actualmente, tal cual se están planteando las soluciones a problemas reales a los que nos enfrentamos (vivienda, demografía..) y a problemas artificiales (ecoresiliencia, feminismo), parece que existe demasiada gente con demasiado poder en el organigrama, muy por encima de los límites de control que les pudieran ser aplicados.
Tanto en la escena pública (esencialmente en EU) como en la privada (esencialmente en EEUU).
Yo estoy en medio del cambio generacional, me considero filántropo, y he sido testigo todos estos años de lo que se ha hecho -gracias entre otras cosas a PPCC-.
Y ojalá me equivoque. Pero creo que no lo hago.
Podemos estar saliendo de la sartén para caer en las brasas.

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/21c2f283-be8c-45b1-ab2f-75aa4564bc8d

Germany to create €200bn fund to support strained pension system

Plan aimed at stabilising retirement scheme as ‘baby boomer’ generation exits work force

The German government will invest billions of euros in capital markets and use the proceeds to shore up the country’s embattled pension system, according to a draft law unveiled on Tuesday.

The legislation will see the creation of a fund for investing in stocks,backed by loans taken out by the federal government, that is forecast to be worth at least €200bn by the mid-2030s.

Proceeds from the investments will be used to keep the pension system stable and ensure that payments remain at 48 per cent of an average wage until the end of the next decade while avoiding steep increases in social security contributions. Finance minister Christian Lindner said the reform amounted to a “paradigm shift” in pension provision.

The plan is designed to alleviate pressure on a pension system that is expected to come under huge strain in the next few years as a whole generation of “baby-boomers” born in the 50s and 60s enters retirement.

Already the federal government has to subsidise Germany’s statutory pension fund to the tune of €110bn a year — almost a quarter of the entire state budget.

“The system must remain fair for future generations, for those who profit as pensioners and the others who finance the system,” Lindner said. “For that reason our pension provision requires an update.”

As a first step, the government will raise €12bn in debt this year and transfer it to the new fund, which will be managed by an independent public foundation. That amount will increase by 3 per cent annually and be augmented by proceeds from the sale of state holdings.

The finance ministry forecasts the size of the fund to reach €200bn by the mid-2030s and returns on investments will enable distributions of €10bn a year to the statutory pension fund from 2036. Finance ministry officials said the hope is Germany can ultimately move in the direction of Sweden and Norway where individuals can invest in capital markets within the framework of the state pension system.

Lindner said the reform was “long overdue”.

“We should have started to exploit the opportunities of the capital markets for the statutory pension system a long time ago,” he said. “It’s not yet the sole solution for the challenge of financing pensions in the long term, but a first important step has been taken.”

Some critics have said the reform would introduce an element of “casino capitalism” into Germany’s pension provision.

Christiane Benner, head of IG Metall, Germany’s largest union, said it was a “step into the unknown”. “[It] doesn’t make old-age provision in Germany any safer,” she said. “It’s a debt-financed bet on some vague income in the future . . . [and] moves pensions closer to the risks of financial markets.”

Hubertus Heil, labour minister, dismissed the criticism. “This is money that is invested well, for the long-term,” he said. Individual pension contributions wouldn’t be used to buy stocks and shares, but “money from the state”.

However, the reform will not prevent pensions contributions from rising. According to the draft law on the new fund, these will rise in the coming years to 22.3 per cent of gross salaries, from 18.6 per cent currently. The bill says that without the new investment fund, contributions would have risen to 22.7 per cent by 2045.

[Derby]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/s-p-500-futures-dip-as-traders-wary-of-rally-exhaustion-and-apple-eyes-4-month-low-e11d85a8

Dow Jones tumbles over 350 points; Nasdaq down 1.9% as Apple shares slump

[Derby]

https://www.pymnts.com/news/regulation/2024/report-us-regulators-could-debut-banking-rules-this-spring/

Report: US Regulators Could Debut Banking Rules This Spring

The Federal Reserve and other American regulators could reportedly unveil new banking regulations this spring.

That’s according to the New York Times (NYT) report Tuesday (March 5) on the response to last year’s banking crisis. A source told the news outlet that at least some policymakers want to have a proposal released before a regulatory conference in June.

As the report noted, the new rules would be in addition to other proposed regulations that have already led to friction between America’s banking giants and financial rulemakers.

The aim of these new rules, the NYT said, would focus on liquidity to avoid the type of bank runs that led to the downfall of a number of regional banks in the spring of 2023.(...)

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.diariovasco.com/gipuzkoa/expedientes-sancionadores-viviendas-turisticas-multiplican-siete-gipuzkoa-20240305063654-nt.html

https://www.diariovasco.com/gipuzkoa/viviendas-turisticas-registradas-superan-barrera-2000-20240305063722-nt.html

Saludos.

[Derby]

https://www.npr.org/2024/03/05/1235973211/credit-card-late-fees-cap-junk-fees-cfpb

The U.S. sharply limits how much credit cards can charge you in late fees

The cost of a late payment on your credit card could soon be going down.

Federal regulators issued a new rule Tuesday capping credit card late fees at $8, down from the current average of $32. The move is expected to save customers an estimated $10 billion a year.

Consumer advocates praised the measure as providing welcome relief for millions of credit card users, but business interests accused regulators of overstepping their authority and promised legal action to prevent the rule from going into effect.

"For over a decade, credit card giants have been exploiting a loophole to harvest billions of dollars in junk fees from American consumers," said Rohit Chopra, director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, in a statement. "Today's rule ends the era of big credit card companies hiding behind the excuse of inflation when they hike fees on borrowers and boost their own bottom lines."

A survey by Consumer Reports last year found one in five adults had paid a credit card late fee within the past twelve months. By law, the fees are supposed to be tied to a credit card issuer's own costs associated with the late payment.

The bureau found that even as banks have adopted cheaper processes for dealing with late payments, the fees have continued to climb, boosting bank revenues. In 2022, late fees assessed by banks totaled $14 billion.(...)

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.elcorreo.com/bizkaia/viviendas-vizcainas-incumplen-normativa-ue-sobre-eficiencia-20240305010943-nt.html

Saludos.

[Derby]

https://www.apolloacademy.com/office-vacancy-rate-rising/

Office Vacancy Rate Rising

The vacancy rate for US office is approaching 20%, see chart below. And this is in a strong economy with a strong labor market. If the unemployment rate starts rising because of the lagged effects of Fed hikes, the office vacancy rate will increase even more.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/inmobiliario/mercado/2024/03/04/65e5a0e0e5fdea021a8b45bf.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/empresas/transporte/2024/03/05/65e62a06468aeb7a4c8b45ab.html

https://www.expansion.com/inmobiliario/mercado/2024/03/05/65e62b7ce5fdea19658b45d0.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/ahorro/2024/03/05/65e617e6468aeb0c6f8b458f.html

Saludos.