PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Invierno 2024

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/economia/2024/02/07/65c28bc3e5fdea535c8b4584.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/economia/2024/02/06/65c28ffa468aebe9558b45bf.html

https://www.expansion.com/economia/financial-times/2024/02/06/65c226d1468aeb395f8b45ce.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/economia/financial-times/2024/02/06/65c2390fe5fdeacf5e8b45ac.html

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/expansion-nacional/20240207/page/36/textview

El comercio minorista en la eurozona se hunde un 1,1% en diciembre

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/economia/financial-times/2024/02/06/65c260fce5fdea535c8b4575.html

Saludos.

[Benzino Napaloni]

https://www.expansion.com/economia/financial-times/2024/02/06/65c260fce5fdea535c8b4575.html

Saludos.

Mientras se nos inunda con mensajes de que falta oferta y hay que construir más residencial, en oficinas se va reconociendo la realidad. Hay demasiadas. El teletrabajo no ha sido más que el detonante y el síntoma de que también había una burbuja de oficinas.

El cuento de que hay que tener oficinas de postín en sitios "premium" es eso, un cuento. Al final buena parte de los recursos de muchas empresas se van por el retrete sólo por el ladrillo. No hablo de las que ya tenían la oficina pagada y en propiedad, evidentemente, sino de las que vinieron después. De ahí están viniendo tantos impagos.

Frente a ellas, otras empresas no tan atadas a un sitio físico se vuelven más competitivas por deshacerse de parte del gasto del ladrillo.

El escenario del inmobiliario de oficinas está claro. Falta ver cuándo arrastrará al residencial.

[asustadísimos]

LAS PENSIONES SON TOPURIA (CONT.).—

Ver: https://www.transicionestructural.net/index.php?topic=2601.msg224670#msg224670

Se da la circunstancia de que, también para el 17 de febrero estaba programada la esperadísima, primera en la historia, unificación del título de los pesados pesados, entre Usyk y Fury.

Pero ha sido pospuesta al 18 de mayo porque el pobretico Fury (34-0-1, 24 KO) se ha lesionado con un 'sparring' (corte en una ceja), con gran cabreo de Usyk (21-0-0, 14 KO), que por culpa de la preparación se ha perdido el nacimiento de su hijita.

Será el 28 de mayo

El ministro de Arabia Saudí Turki Al-Sheikh no acepta más retrasos y ha ordenado que, si alguno de los dos boxeadores se cayera ahora del combate, tendría que pagar 10 millones de dólares.

A nosotros no nos importa, el 17 de febrero tenemos el Topuria-Volkanovski.

[tomasjos]

https://www.larazon.es/espana/eurocamara-apunta-lazos-puigdemont-moscu-pide-investigacion-interna-espana_2024020865c4c74f4129260001a52bef.html
La eurocámara va en serio, y el PSOE allí ha votado a favor de investigar los vínculos de Rusia con Puchi.

[el malo]

Austadísimos, no le hacía yo fan de la UFC.

Sí del boxeo, que a mí personalmente me parece un arte y un deporte de caballeros (Tysons y Connor McGregors aparte). La UFC me parece salvaje (aunque de vez en cuando vea algún combate).

[senslev]

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/14b056b2-ab71-4f32-b829-9493c4bfd650

China’s prices fall at fastest rate in 15 years as economy battles deflation

Analysts warn prolonged price declines will undermine business and consumer confidence

China’s consumer prices fell at the fastest annual rate in 15 years in January, missing analysts’ forecasts and underlining the challenges for policymakers trying to revive investor confidence in the world’s second-largest economy.

The country’s consumer price index fell 0.8 per cent year on year in January, according to official statistics released on Thursday, the fourth straight month of declines and the biggest contraction since 2009.

The fall, which was steeper than a 0.5 per cent drop forecast by a Reuters poll of analysts and a 0.3 per cent decline in December, comes as China’s economy contends with an extended property sector slump, a stock market meltdown and weaker export revenue.

“A multitude of indicators are now flashing red, signalling a perilous period ahead for China’s economy and financial markets,” said Eswar Prasad, professor of economics at Cornell University and former head of the IMF’s China division.

The CPI rose 0.3 per cent on a monthly basis, falling short of a 0.4 per cent rise forecast by the Reuters poll but stronger than a gain of 0.1 per cent in December.

The producer price index improved marginally, dropping 2.5 per cent year on year in January, a slight improvement from a 2.7 per cent decline in December and an analyst forecast of 2.6 per cent.

China’s economy slipped into deflation in July, and prices have been flat or fallen in every month since except August, leading economists to warn that prolonged deflation could undermine business and consumer confidence.

The deflationary pressures are weighing on corporate earnings and fuelling a stock market rout, analysts said. China on Wednesday sacked the head of its market watchdog, Yi Huiman, a move that analysts said was intended to placate investors angry over huge equities losses.

“China’s persistent deflation and struggling stock markets indicate that household demand and private sector confidence remain weak, posing significant risks to the economy’s growth prospects,” said Prasad. “As deflation becomes entrenched in China, an increasingly heavy policy lift will be needed to rebuild confidence and pull the economy out of the morass.”

The National Bureau of Statistics said the consumer inflation figure was affected by the timing of the lunar new year holiday, which boosted spending in January last year but which this year falls in February.

ING chief economist for greater China Lynn Song said this exaggerated the decline in last month’s CPI figure, adding that the impact of pork prices, which have been driving deflation, should moderate in February. Increased consumer spending during this year’s festival should help push price growth into positive territory this month, he said.

The statistics bureau said while food prices dropped 5.9 per cent last month, non-food prices increased 0.4 per cent year on year.

Producer prices in January were “affected by fluctuations in international commodity prices”, the bureau added. China’s PPI has been in decline for 16 consecutive months.

Economists are beginning to look towards the annual “two sessions” of China’s rubber-stamp parliament and its main advisory committee in March, when President Xi Jinping’s government is expected to lay out priorities for the year.

Economic growth last year slightly exceeded the government target of 5.2 per cent. But to reach that level, policymakers were forced to roll out a range of measures to address the property slowdown and a less robust than expected recovery in consumption from the coronavirus pandemic.

Officials are expected to set a gross domestic product growth target of about 5 per cent in 2024 next month, similar to the 2023 goal, which was the lowest in decades.

Beijing’s piecemeal stimulus measures include loosening critical lending rates and targeting strategic sectors with credit, along with selective efforts to support the property sector, which typically accounts for more than a quarter of economic activity.

[el malo]

Por otra parte, además …

https://www.defensa.com/otan-y-europa/fuerza-aerea-estados-unidos-despliegue-bombardeos-b-52-guam-para



Y hoy mismo…

Por supuesto. En mi mensaje no quise decir que EEUU se haya quedado sin fuerza. Por algo tienen los 3 mayores ejércitos del mundo* combinados en un sólo país (incluso el cuerpo de Marines está considerado como un ejército aparte, con sus propias fuerzas aéreas y navales).

*no por personal pero sí por presupuesto y por poder de ataque estimado

Pero estamos viendo en Ucrania y en el Mar Arábigo/Ormuz que la cosa ya no es tan asimétrica como podía ser hace 10 años, y que las concentraciones de tropas son un blanco fácil para un dron the unos pocos miles de dólares.

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-08/german-banks-caught-in-us-property-downturn-can-seek-salvation-in-covered-bonds

Real Estate Turmoil Leaves German Banks Reliant on Covered Bonds

Covered bonds, deposits ‘critical’ for PBB, Aareal: Barclays
These lenders’ unsecured bonds have slumped in recent days

For German banks at the forefront of a spreading US commercial property downturn, covered bonds and deposits can offer a lifeline, according to Barclays Plc analysts.

Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG and Aareal Bank AG have seen their unsecured borrowing costs grind higher as investors scrutinize their loan books for bad US loans. That makes it critical that they continue to be able to rely on more steady sources of funding.

“It remains critical for the banks to retain access to the deposit and covered bond markets,” Barclays analysts led by Cristina Costa wrote in a note to clients on Thursday. “This is the key variable for the banks to manage in the near term,” they wrote.

US commercial real estate exposures are starting to infect banks the world over, forcing them to mark down the value of their loans as developers struggle under the weight of high debt at elevated interest rates. Deutsche Pfandbriefbank, known as PBB, said Wednesday that it had increased loan-loss provisions, noting “persistent weakness” in real estate. Aareal Bank in November reported that the value of US non-performing loans had risen more than fourfold over the previous year.(...)

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-08/yellen-eyes-nonbank-mortgage-lenders-warns-of-potential-failure

Yellen Eyes Nonbank Mortgage Lenders, Warns of Potential Failure

Treasury secretary asked about risks with nonbanks at hearing
Yellen highlights nonbanks’ lack of access to funding backstop

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said US regulators are monitoring risks stemming from nonbank mortgage lenders, and cautioned that a failure of one of them is possible in the case of market strains.

“FSOC is very focused on that because nonbank mortgage companies lack access to deposits, which banks have,” Yellen said at the Senate Banking Committee Thursday, referring to the Financial Stability Oversight Council. The FSOC groups the main US financial regulators.

Nonbanks have become a major presence in the mortgage market, but rely on short-term funding instruments to fund their operations. They also aren’t allowed to access the Federal Reserve’s emergency lending facility, known as the discount window. Online lenders like Quicken Loans and Rocket Mortgage have seen rapid growth in recent years.

“They’re reliant on short-term financing that may be a lot less stable than deposits, and in stressful times, their credit lines can be pulled,” said Yellen, responding to questions from Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada. “There is concern that in stressful market conditions we could see the failure of one of these.”

Regulators have been warning that nonbanks’ footprints across finance have significantly expanded, though oversight hasn’t kept pace. Officials have said that unforeseen risks may be lurking as the firms have grabbed more market share, while their ties to traditional lenders have become more complex.

Fed Oversight

In November, the FSOC laid out a pathway for placing firms other than banks under strict Federal Reserve oversight, a major regulatory threat to nonbank mortgage lenders, hedge funds and investment companies.

That blueprint kick-started a process that could result in the designation of specific mortgage-lending firms as systemically important — a label that would then require greater regulatory obligations. But the panel has yet to announce it’s begun that process. Previous designations of nonbanks by the FSOC took about a year and half.

The FSOC’s nonbank mortgage-servicing task force will publish a report on the staff’s recommendations about how to proceed as soon as March, according to people familiar with the discussions. The people added that the full panel won’t move forward on the process until that report is published.

Financial trade groups including the Investment Company Institute, Managed Funds Association and Mortgage Bankers Association, have all urged regulators to tread carefully on any assertion of greater discretion over nonbank mortgage lenders, and on using a shorter timeline to designate a firm as systemically important.

Meanwhile, advocates argue that the FSOC’s powers allow for regulators to demand more granular details from nonbanks in a bid to learn how exposed they are to a wide range of risks. Engaging in this process doesn’t automatically assume a firm would be designated.

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-08/europe-s-banks-in-focus-as-real-estate-contagion-worries-swirl

Europe’s Banks Under Microscope With Property Worries Swirling

*Deutsche Bank, Santander seen having ‘notable’ exposures
*SocGen, Credit Agricole, Intesa say they’re not worried

Europe’s lenders remained in the focus of investors Thursday as analysts assessed the risk of contagion from the troubles in commercial real estate markets.

Deutsche Bank AG has limited room to absorb potential losses for the asset class without triggering concerns about its ability to raise investor payouts, analysts at KBW wrote in a note. Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG, the specialized lender at the center of contagion worries, continued its decline as analysts at Barclays Plc argued PBB had set aside relatively small provisions.

Other banks pushed back against concerns, including French lenders Societe Generale SA and Credit Agricole SA as well as Italy’s Intesa Sanpaolo SpA.

“Our exposure is very limited,” Intesa Chief Executive Officer Carlo Messina said in an interview on Bloomberg TV. “In this sector we do not expect negative surprises in 2024.”

Investors and executives have been on edge after smaller banks from New York to Tokyo were hit by rising defaults in commercial real estate, an asset class that’s been been in sharp decline as last year’s spike in interest rates compounded challenges from the shift to work-from-home. The concerns spread to Europe this week when PBB’s bonds slumped because of its exposure to the troubled US market.

While many analysts argue that larger lenders aren’t at risk because they’re more diversified, Barclays said in its note Thursday that Banco Santander SA and Deutsche Bank had “notable” portfolios of US commercial real estate loans. Shares of Santander have lost about 5% this week and Deutsche Bank is down more than 8%.

Germany’s largest bank has “high relative and absolute exposures” to commercial real estate, yet it has set aside the lowest amount among peers for debt that’s in the early stages of default, KBW analysts led by Thomas Hallett said in a note. That means it has limited room to absorb potential losses before investor payouts could be affected, according to analysts at KBW.

Deutsche Bank declined to comment. A spokesperson for Santander didn’t immediately have a comment. Santander’s US unit said during the presentation of third-quarter results that commercial real estate portfolio consists mostly of multifamily lending.



Deutsche Bank last week said it doubled the amount of money set aside for US commercial real estate loans in the fourth quarter from the previous three months, to 123 million euros. At the same time, it said it expects credit provisions this year to remain in line with where they were last year. US commercial real estate loans, at €17 billion, amount to about 3.5% of the total loan book.

“US commercial real estate is not a big issue among European banks generally speaking, especially the biggest ones,” said Luis Buceta, chief investment officer at Creand Wealth Management. “It may cause some problems to specific lenders.”

PBB, which had issued a profit warning in November, said on Wednesday that it put aside more money for souring loans, with provisions for last year hitting as much as €215 million ($232 million). The lender said it still expects to post a pretax profit for last year, despite what it called the “greatest real estate crisis since the financial crisis.”

Shares of the lender fell 2.4% at 2:52 p.m. in Munich, bringing losses this week to 17%.

[asustadísimos]

[A Saturno: Por favor, corríjame en XTE-Central el comentario «Las pensiones son Topuria (Cont.)». He cambiado el pie de foto y quitado la frase que la precedía. He puesto «Será el 28 de mayo».]