www.transicionestructural.NET es un nuevo foro, que a partir del 25/06/2012 se ha separado de su homónimo .COM. No se compartirán nuevos mensajes o usuarios a partir de dicho día.
0 Usuarios y 1 Visitante están viendo este tema.
Fed Chair Powell Still Expects to Cut Rates This Year, but Not YetJerome H. Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, said policymakers still expect to lower rates in 2024 — but the timing hinges on data.Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, said on Wednesday that he thinks the central bank will begin to lower borrowing costs in 2024 but that policymakers still needed to gain “greater confidence” that inflation was conquered before making a move.“We believe that our policy rate is likely at its peak for this tightening cycle,” Mr. Powell said in remarks prepared for testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. “If the economy evolves broadly as expected, it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint at some point this year.”The Fed next meets on March 19-20, but few investors expect officials to lower interest rates at that gathering. Markets see the Fed’s June meeting as a more likely candidate for the first rate cut, and are betting that central bankers could lower borrowing costs three or four times by the end of the year.The Fed chair warned against cutting rates too early — before inflation is sufficiently snuffed out — noting that “reducing policy restraint too soon or too much could result in a reversal of progress we have seen in inflation and ultimately require even tighter policy.”He also acknowledged that there could be risks to waiting too long, adding that “reducing policy restraint too late or too little could unduly weaken economic activity and employment.”Mr. Powell and his colleagues are trying to strike a delicate balance as they figure out their next policy steps. Policymakers raised interest rates rapidly between March 2022 and July 2023, lifting them to a range of 5.25 to 5.5 percent, where they currently sit. That has made mortgages, business loans and other types of borrowing more expensive, helping to tap the brakes on an economy that otherwise retains substantial momentum.Policymakers do not want to leave interest rates this high for too long. Cooling the economy by more than is necessary could push up unemployment.But they also want to avoid declaring victory too early. While inflation has come down notably, it is still lingering above the Fed’s 2 percent goal.The central bank’s preferred inflation measure climbed 2.4 percent on an annual basis in January, which is well below its nearly 7 percent peak. The measure rose by 2.8 percent after stripping out volatile food and fuel prices for a clearer reading of the inflation trend. (A separate but related inflation measure, the Consumer Price Index, reached a higher peak in 2022 and remains slightly more elevated.)So far, the progress in cooling has come even as the job market has remained strong, with solid hiring and joblessness hovering at 3.7 percent, a low level by historical standards.Inflation “has eased substantially, and the slowing in inflation has occurred without a significant increase in unemployment,” Mr. Powell said.Fed officials are hopeful that their policy is helping to bring the economy back into balance, so that price increases can return entirely to a normal level. For instance, the number of job openings has come down over the past year, and as companies compete less aggressively for employees, wage growth is cooling. That could leave firms with less impetus to ratchet up prices to cover climbing costs.Mr. Powell noted that in the labor market, “supply and demand conditions have continued to come into better balance.”
Goldman Sachs Sees Signs of Greedflation (Kind of)New research finds that companies take longer to pass through cost savings than increases.The degree to which companies have passed on higher costs to consumers and helped fan inflation has become a hot button topic.Now, economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. are wading into the debate, albeit indirectly.In research published this week, economist Manuel Albecasis says he expects corporate profit margins to stay high in 2024 even as input costs have fallen 3% over the past year. That’s happening in part because companies have so far resisted passing on their savings to consumers even as material prices decline and supply chains normalize.“While we have previously found that input cost changes are mostly passed onto final prices in the long run, we find that companies pass through input cost increases faster than input cost declines,” Albecasis writes. “Assuming intermediate inputs remain at their current levels, we estimate that lower input costs should boost nonfinancial corporate profit margins by 0.2 percentage points in 2024.”While you won’t see the loaded term “greedlation” anywhere in the Goldman note, the research feeds into an ongoing discussion about the degree to which companies have raised prices in order to pad or preserve their profit margins. UMass AMherst economist Isabella Weber has previously referred to the idea as “sellers’ inflation,” while UBS’s Paul Donovan has dubbed it “profit-led inflation.”Here at Odd Lots, we like to call it “ excuseflation” to capture the idea that companies have been able to point to a host of overlapping emergencies and disruptions to justify raising prices. Now, as the list of excuses starts to shrink, the question is whether companies will start to lower their prices too.Whatever term you choose to use, Goldman’s research shows that companies are more reluctant to pass on input price decreases than increases. Using oil prices and the Producer Price Index, Goldman estimates that the recent decline in intermediate costs will probably boost profit margins by 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points this year.The good news for consumers — when it comes to prices at least — is that Goldman expects lower input costs to expected to eventually feed through into lower profits (Though there’s still an open question about whether companies will want to pull on other levers to preserve margins, like reducing jobs). Pressure to reduce prices might be particularly acute for companies that face stiff competition from imports, such as manufacturing, Albecasis noted.“Our findings suggest that lower input costs will likely boost profit margins in the next few months,” Abecasis said. “On the flip side, the eventual passthrough of lower input costs should weigh on margins in 2025 relative to 2024.”Of course, Goldman isn’t alone in this assertion. Samuel Rines, strategist at Corbu, has argued that companies are moving from a “Price Over Volume (POV)” strategy, where they prioritized higher prices over sales volume in the years immediately after the pandemic, to a “Price and Margin (PAM)” regime, where they now seek to preserve margins as much as possible.
Y, ojo al dato, que le están preguntado ahora directamente por el crash del commercial real state y Powell intenta sujetar el asunto, esto significa que el monstruo está herido de muerte y Powell no necesita hacer más fuerza, al contrario, le conviene que la cosa vaya paso a paso.Ha dicho que lo del commercial real state se debe al "shock" sufrido, supongo que el covid y los ha encomendado a todos a rezarle un Padrenuestro y dos Avemarías al largo plazo.
Fed Chair Powell Says Commercial Real Estate Risk Is ManageableCC-TranscriptClose00:00As you know, the Financial Stability Oversight Council identified commercial00:04commercial real estate as perhaps the most salient risk to the financial00:08system. 6 trillion roughly in loans, half of00:11that on bank balance sheets. In a 60 Minutes interview a few weeks00:15ago, you characterized distress in the commercial real estate market as sizable00:19but manageable. Do you still feel like that risk is00:23manageable? Do you feel like you've got the00:26visibility and the transparency and the tools to address it?00:31It makes me nervous because this has echoes of 2829 when vacancy rates00:38were declined relatively rapidly. We're not seeing that right now.00:41So. So how do you feel?00:42Is that does that risk continue to be manageable and do you have the tools to00:45manage it? Yeah, I would say yes to that, I think.00:49I think it is manageable. And we've been, you know, working hard00:52to management for some time now, really. And you know, what it really is, is it's00:58a lot of downtown real estate where where there's too much office supply01:01because of work for home work from home. And also, you know, the kind of downtown01:06retail that is no longer as profitable and things like that are really at the01:10heart of it. So what we've done is we've we've looked01:15at banks that have significant concentrations and we've been in touch01:18with them to make sure that they have a plan to deal with, that there will be01:22losses by some banks. It isn't really the big banks.01:26It's really medium and small sized banks that have these higher concentrations.01:30It's going to be with this is a problem we'll be working through, I think, for01:33several years. And the idea is you've got to have01:36enough capital, enough liquidity and a plan to, you know, take the losses that01:41you're probably going to take.
Le están preguntando a Powell en el Congreso todos los mismo, que hay muchos problemas por todas partes y que la solución es el bálsamo sanador del dinero regalado para gastarlo en joder al prójimo.Y, ojo al dato, que le están preguntado ahora directamente por el crash del commercial real state y Powell intenta sujetar el asunto, esto significa que el monstruo está herido de muerte y Powell no necesita hacer más fuerza, al contrario, le conviene que la cosa vaya paso a paso.Ha dicho que lo del commercial real state se debe al "shock" sufrido, supongo que el covid y los ha encomendado a todos a rezarle un Padrenuestro y dos Avemarías al largo plazo.
https://www.eleconomista.es/vivienda-inmobiliario/noticias/12705776/03/24/la-crisis-de-las-oficinas-acelera-la-reconversion-a-viviendas-en-madrid-.htmlSaludos.
Madrid Nuevo Nortehttps://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madrid_Nuevo_NorteNombre Plantas Altura Fase UsoMadrid nuevo norte 1 ~77 300 - 330m Aprobado Oficinas Madrid nuevo norte 2 ~55 ~250m Aprobado Oficinas Madrid nuevo norte 3 ~50 ~230m Aprobado Oficinas Torre Chamartín I 50 220m Aprobado Oficinas Madrid Nuevo Norte 4 ~45 ~190m Aprobado Oficinas Madrid Nuevo Norte 5 ~45 ~190m Aprobado Oficinas Madrid Nuevo Norte 6 ~40 ~160m Aprobado Oficinas Torre Chamartín II 38 160m Aprobado Oficinas Madrid Nuevo Norte 7 ~35 ~150m Aprobado Oficinas Madrid Nuevo Norte 8 ~30 ~130m Aprobado Oficinas Torre Chamartín III 30 110m Aprobado Oficinas 8 Torres Residenciales ~25 ~100m Aprobado Residencial Torre Chamartín IV 21 76m Aprobado Oficinas
[...]Bueno pues interesante esta pregunta que le hacen a Powell sobre el inmobiliario comercial estadounidense.Dice el que le ha preguntado (el legislador) que Powell en una entrevista hace unas semanas habló de que el problema de la crisis del inmobiliario comercial era importante pero que era "manejable" que si sigue de acuerdo Powell con esta afirmación que realizó unas semanas atrás.Y dice: "Sí estoy de acuerdo en que sigue siendo manejable, hemos estado trabajando mucho tiempo muy duro para para resolver este problema. Hemos estado mirando algunos bancos que tienen concentraciones significativas de este tipo de de activos en sus balances y hemos estado en contacto con ellos y nos hemos asegurado de que tengan un plan. Habrá pérdidas, habrá pérdidas sobre todo para los bancos medianos y pequeños que son los que más concentración de este tipo de activos tienen en sus balances, vamos a tener que convivir con este problema del inmobiliario comercial durante varios años".Así de claro ha sido Powell cuando le preguntan también si piensan que podemos otra vez correr el riesgo de que haya un banco como Silicon Valley Bank que no sea supervisado de una manera correcta y pueda ocurrir lo que ocurrió entonces.Dice: "Bueno, de momento yo lo estoy viendo con mis propios ojos, hay un riesgo también de que podamos sobre reaccionar; sé que los supervisores ahora mismo están ahí fuera y que estamos recibiendo feedback por parte de estos bancos por parte de estas entidades financieras" e insiste de nuevo al final de su respuesta en que piensa que "es un problema manejable de la crisis inmobiliaria comercial".
Cita de: Cadavre Exquis en Marzo 06, 2024, 07:51:43 amhttps://www.eleconomista.es/vivienda-inmobiliario/noticias/12705776/03/24/la-crisis-de-las-oficinas-acelera-la-reconversion-a-viviendas-en-madrid-.htmlSaludos.Me pregunto que va a ser de todo esto:CitarMadrid Nuevo Nortehttps://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madrid_Nuevo_NorteNombre Plantas Altura Fase UsoMadrid nuevo norte 1 ~77 300 - 330m Aprobado Oficinas Madrid nuevo norte 2 ~55 ~250m Aprobado Oficinas Madrid nuevo norte 3 ~50 ~230m Aprobado Oficinas Torre Chamartín I 50 220m Aprobado Oficinas Madrid Nuevo Norte 4 ~45 ~190m Aprobado Oficinas Madrid Nuevo Norte 5 ~45 ~190m Aprobado Oficinas Madrid Nuevo Norte 6 ~40 ~160m Aprobado Oficinas Torre Chamartín II 38 160m Aprobado Oficinas Madrid Nuevo Norte 7 ~35 ~150m Aprobado Oficinas Madrid Nuevo Norte 8 ~30 ~130m Aprobado Oficinas Torre Chamartín III 30 110m Aprobado Oficinas 8 Torres Residenciales ~25 ~100m Aprobado Residencial Torre Chamartín IV 21 76m Aprobado Oficinas Si todo eso lo convierten en viviendas, a la Clase Media Extractiva Madrileña le va a salir el tiro por la culata. Contaban con la llegada de decenas de miles de trabajadores sueldos de los que poder "sacar" el 40% - la gente en algún sitio tiene que vivir, y en Mierdrid hay escasez de oferta -, y se van a encontrar con que les hacen decenas de miles de viviendas enfrente de su casa.Vamos a hacer una apuesta. Ustedes que creen, ¿esas torres se van a hacer o no?Yo apuesto a que NO. Y no será porque:- no hay suelo, que lo hay,- ni tampoco porque no haya constructoras dispuestas a hacerlas, que las hay,- ni porque no haya un sistema financiero que lo financie, que lo hay,- ni será porque no hay gente que esté dispuesta a vivir en esas torres, que la hay.Será porque El Propietariado madrileño lo va a impedir.Ya verán como en breve van a ir apareciendo en los medios noticias negativas sobre la construcción de esas torres.
Steven Mnuchin leads $1 billion attempt to rescue NYCBNew York Community Bank (NYCB) made a dramatic attempt to regain investor confidence by announcing a new CEO and a $1 billion infusion from a group that includes former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.The moves on Wednesday came after the stock of the $114 billion lender fell as much as 45% following a report by Wall Street Journal that NYCB had dispatched bankers to find investors willing to buy stock in the company.After the $1 billion deal was announced, the stock rebounded as much as 18%.The firms that lined up to provide the infusion include Liberty Strategic Capital, a firm founded by Mnuchin in 2021, as well as Hudson Bay Capital, Reverence Capital Partners and Citadel Securities.As part of the deal, former Comptroller of the Currency Joseph Otting will become NYCB's new CEO.The transaction is scheduled to close by March 11 and is still subject to regulatory approvals.(...)
La compraventa de viviendas crece un 7,3% interanual en enero de 2024El número de operaciones de compraventa de vivienda y sus precios experimentaron subidas en enero de 2024. Siguiendo la tendencia, la concesión de préstamos hipotecarios y la constitución de sociedades tuvieron evoluciones positivas en su variación interanual.2024.03.06La compraventa de viviendas crece en catorce CC.AA. y disminuye en las tres restantes. Destacan las alzas en Cantabria (37,9%) y Galicia (23,2%) y la caída en Canarias (-5,0%).El precio del m² sube en España un 4,2% interanual. Destacan los ascensos en Baleares (18,4%) y Galicia (15,3%), así como la caída en La Rioja (-25,1%).Los préstamos para adquisición de vivienda aumentan un 7,6% interanual. Crecen en trece CC.AA., destacando Cantabria (44,8%), Galicia (23,5%) y Castilla-La Mancha (17,4%), y caen en las cuatro restantes destacando la caída en La Rioja ( 15,0%).La constitución de nuevas sociedades crece un 8,5%. Destacan los aumentos en Aragón (30,2%) y Extremadura (26,0%) y los retrocesos en La Rioja (-32,8%) y Baleares (-8,2%).Informe compraventas, préstamos hipotecarios y sociedades de enero 2024 (PDF) (590 Kb)Anexo tablas: series estadísticas correspondientes al informe (hasta ene-24) (XLSX) (2179 Kb)
[El adiós de Victoria Nuland —y con ella, el de su marido Robert Kagan— tiene mucho significado. Aunque parezca mentira, es rusa por parte de padre. Este es un evento de gran calidad estructuraltransicionista.]