PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Primavera 2024

[Derby]

https://www.bolsamania.com/capitalbolsa/noticias/bolsa/el-indicador-de-caida-del-mercado-con-un-historial-irregular-hindenburg-omen-se-activo-la-semana-pasada--16857423.html

El indicador de caída del mercado con un historial irregular 'Hindenburg Omen' se activó la semana pasada

Puede que no todo vaya bien en Wall Street, incluso con el mercado de valores en máximos históricos. El siniestro “Hindenburg Omen” se desencadenó la semana pasada, señaló el lunes el técnico jefe de mercado de StockCharts.com, David Keller.

El Hindenburg Omen considera el porcentaje de acciones en una bolsa que alcanzan máximos y mínimos de 52 semanas, junto con otras métricas de amplitud, para medir el potencial de una caída del mercado. Ha predicho con éxito la caída del mercado de 1987 y la crisis financiera de 2008.

Sin embargo, la errática tasa de éxito del indicador ha llevado a muchos observadores del mercado a considerarlo con cierto escepticismo. El Wall Street Journal informó anteriormente que el indicador ha señalado con precisión un retroceso significativo ni siquiera el 30% de las veces.(...)

[Derby]

https://www.eleconomista.es/vivienda-inmobiliario/noticias/12838801/05/24/palma-pone-coto-al-turismo-masivo-prohibe-nuevas-viviendas-de-alquiler-vacacional.html

Palma pone coto al turismo masivo: prohíbe nuevas viviendas de alquiler vacacional

Se suprimirán 4.000 plazas turísticas que están proyectadas
El Ayuntamiento propone restricciones a los cruceristas y a los coches de alquiler

Ofensiva de Palma contra la saturación turística. El Ayuntamiento de la ciudad balear ha presentado un paquete de medidas que busca minimizar el impacto que el turismo masivo está provocando en el territorio, especialmente en el ámbito residencial. El Gobierno local ha propuesto prohibir el alquiler vacacional en todo tipo de viviendas, limitar los 'megacruceros' y los coches de alquiler, y entre otras cosas, regular o registringir los grupos organizados de turistas.

"La presión turística que hay sobre Palma debe compensarse con limitaciones, con restricciones y, en algunos casos, con prohibiciones", ha dicho el alcalde Jaime Martínez, quien ha explicado que alguna de las medidas presentadas superan las competencias municipales, aunque espera poder llegar a acuerdos con el resto de instituciones. En el caso de las viviendas, la prohibición de aprobar nuevos alojamientos, que entrará en vigor a corto plazo, supondría eliminar hasta 4.000 plazas que estaban pendientes de autorización. En total, la ciudad cuenta con 50.000 plazas destinadas al turismo.(...)

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-29/eu-aims-to-start-ukraine-membership-negotiations-by-end-of-june

EU Aims to Start Ukraine Membership Talks by End of June

Hungary is chief obstacle to next step in accession process
EU wants to open talks before Hungary takes over EU presidency

The European Union is aiming to start negotiations as early as June 25 with Ukraine on becoming a member of the bloc to help boost Kyiv’s morale, but has yet to fully overcome objections from Hungary.

Almost all 27 member states were supportive of launching the negotiations around the time of the General Affairs Council meeting taking place in Luxembourg on June 25, according to people familiar with the matter.

So far, however, issues raised by the Hungarian government have complicated an agreement on the framework that would allow the bloc to start the talks.

Back in March, the European Commission proposed a negotiating framework to establish guidelines and principles for accession negotiations, following the EU leaders decision to open membership talks with Ukraine in December.(...)

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/ba990311-94e5-4979-aa26-ce4fea9076db

PwC faces crisis in China over audit of failed property giant Evergrande
Role in approving accounts has led to infighting at Big Four firm as clients reconsider relationship

PwC is facing a crisis in China as partners brace for penalties over its audit of collapsed property developer Evergrande and some clients reconsider their relationship with the accounting firm.

China’s securities regulator ruled in March that Evergrande had inflated its mainland revenues by almost $80bn in the two years before the developer defaulted on its debts in 2021, despite PwC giving the accounts a clean bill of health.

Partners fear they could face one of the largest fines ever imposed on a Big Four accounting firm in China and other sanctions, prompting infighting among senior figures, according to insiders and retired partners still close to the firm.

PwC enjoyed success on the back of China’s property boom, but in the wake of Evergrande’s collapse and the property sector slowdown, the firm’s future business in the country has been clouded in uncertainty ahead of a leadership change.

The situation is “high stakes” for PwC China partners, said Francine McKenna, accounting lecturer at the University of Miami Herbert Business School. “The Chinese firms of the Big Four are also part of global networks, and many multinational firms operating in China count on them for audit, tax and advisory services.”

Partners believe possible regulatory action could eclipse the punishment handed to rival Deloitte last year for a “deficient audit” of China Huarong Asset Management. Deloitte paid a $31mn fine and its operations in Beijing were suspended for three months.

“The current partners are braced for impact,” said one former PwC partner.

Evergrande was one of China’s largest developers, and its collapse has sent shockwaves through the economy. Founder Hui Ka Yan faces a lifetime ban from public markets as a result of the March regulatory findings. PwC had audited the company since as early as 2009 before resigning in 2023.

Officials at Beijing’s finance ministry have discussed possible punishments for the firm’s failure to detect the accounting irregularities, including a large monetary penalty, the suspension or closure of some of PwC’s regional offices and curbs on auditing state-owned enterprises, according to a person briefed on the matter.

PwC China had eight central government-controlled SOE audit clients as of 2022, according to finance ministry data, accounting for about 6 per cent of revenue. Regulators reiterated last year that state-owned companies should not typically hire auditors that have received significant fines or other punishment within three years.

A director at a mainland-listed state-owned enterprise said its board in recent weeks discussed dropping PwC as its auditor if Beijing imposed heavy penalties. Last Friday, state-owned insurance group PICC said it had axed PwC as auditor after just three years, hiring EY instead.

The uncertainty has extended to PwC clients beyond SOEs. Shanghai-listed Eastroc Beverage cancelled a shareholder vote scheduled for last Friday that would have reappointed the firm as its auditor, saying it needed to “further verify related matters surrounding the accounting firm”.

“PwC China is co-operating with its regulators as it relates to any proceedings involving Evergrande,” the firm said, declining to comment further. China’s finance ministry did not respond to a request for comment.

Xue Yunkui, professor of accounting at the Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business in Beijing who sits on the boards of several listed companies, said officials were likely to weigh a severe punishment of PwC against the possibility of disrupting capital markets by taking action that destabilises the firm. “Everyone is waiting for guidance from the regulator,” he said.

PwC has the largest market share in China among the Big Four accounting firms, according to the finance ministry, with revenues of Rmb7.9bn ($1.1bn) in 2022. It has almost 800 partners and more than 20,000 staff in mainland China.


(...)

The letter claimed that Chao, then head of the firm’s audit business, had fought off an effort to ditch Evergrande as a client in 2014, when allegations of aggressive accounting first circulated and then-chair Silas Yang and other partners raised questions.

PwC China has previously said the letter contains “inaccurate statements and false allegations”. Chao declined to comment.

Yang, who hails from the old PwC Hong Kong side of the firm and retired in 2015 to become steward of the prestigious Hong Kong Jockey Club, also declined to comment when contacted by the Financial Times. His LinkedIn profile, however, contains some of his post-retirement thoughts in a comment on a video about EY in China.

“The profession is indeed facing many challenges. I’m only glad that I’m out of it now,” he wrote, going on to use an abbreviation for “troublesome practice matters”, the euphemism used internally at PwC for business that gets the firm into regulatory trouble.

“Luckily during my years, there were no TPMs! 🙏🏻🙏🏻,” he wrote.

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-29/argentina-faces-natural-gas-crunch-with-colder-winter-setting-in

Argentina Faces Heating Crunch as Worst Winter Since 1980 Looms

Government tenders for extra supplies of LNG amid shortage
Extra imports hinder Milei team’s bid to build dollar reserves

Argentina is scrambling to secure supplies of fuel as winter bites in the southern hemisphere with lower-than-expected temperatures boosting demand for home heating.

Extra imports are a headache for President Javier Milei’s government, which needs to build up reserves of dollars through trade surpluses — not lose them — in order to lift currency controls that have been strangling the economy.

Milei’s spokesman said consumer demand for natural gas has spiked 55% in recent weeks to nearly 70 million cubic meters a day. “We’re making all efforts to avoid” a heating shortage, Manuel Adorni told reporters Wednesday at a daily press briefing. “It’s the harshest winter in the last 44 years.”

With families in the Buenos Aires metro area, which is home to about a third of Argentina’s 46 million people, switching on heating for longer in recent days, the government has been caught off-guard. It’s been forced to buy additional natural gas and prioritize residential users by cutting off supplies to factories and to drivers who run their cars on compressed gas.(...)

[Manu Oquendo]

The writing is on the wall...



Anoche cené con un viejo amigo miembro saliente del PE. Hacia el final de la cena le pregunté cómo veía la posibilidad de que los sátrapas que nos gobiernan nos metiesen de lleno en una guerra con Rusia en suelo europeo. En "nuestros territorios, instalaciones militares, infraestructuras, etc".
La respuesta: "Puede pasar cualquier cosa".  La siguiente pregunta: "¿Cómo es posible que esta cuestión ni siquiera se plantee en las elecciones europeas de los próximos días". Respuesta:"Lo hacen a escondidas de la gente". Cuando queramos darnos cuenta estaremos dentro.

Esta es, creo yo, la cuestión más importante que tenemos sobre la mesa. Obren en consecuencia al votar sabiendo que PSOE y PP en Europa votan juntos en el 88% de las leyes. Y encima el PP de Feijóo presume de ello.


Sobre la economía:

En general los economistas no ideologizados saben que Occidente está inmerso en una crisis de pauperización monumental desde hace unos 50 años.
Quien mejor lo documentó en los años 90 --en mi opinión-- fue la entonces profesora Warren (Derecho Concursal, Harvard). Una de las escasas menciones europeas sobre esta cuestión la relató hace ahora 25 años el último embajador de España en la OCDE , Escudero. Las referencias concretas obran en el foro, Internet y Librerías desde hace tres décadas por lo que son  bien conocidas y son plenamente vigentes.
El final de Alemania como potencia industrial europea se está concretando ante nuestros ojos y con la connivencia de los gobiernos de Alemania y de la UE. La fuga de empresas alemanas  a USA ya supera la mitad de su base industrial tras verse condenada a desaparecer tras la destrucción por el Gran Hermano del Nord Stream 2 y la suicida política energética de Von der Leyen y sus predecesores.

Una UE que cabalga desbocada sin nadie capaz al timón hacia la debacle. Basta ver solo las dos obras bien recientes
del Español Olier y del Francés Todd. Citadas en posts anteriores.

Ambas son, creo, lectura indispensable para ver bien lo sucedido desde sus inicios y para valorar sus causas y  no las repito porque vienen en mi post de la página 132. 

La primera causa según el francés Emmanuel Todd es la deliberada pérdida europea de sus raíces y valores morales (clásicas, cristianas y racionalistas) que incluyen dos valores accesorios pero  no menores hoy destruidos por los Pensadores del Poder: el mérito y el esfuerzo. 

El libro de Olier ilustra muy bien quién ha dirigido realmente la UE desde sus inicios. Y siguen haciéndolo.

La constatación del proceso de Pauperización no depende de la escuela económica. Existe igualmente para quienes provienen de la Síntesis Neoclásica, de la Social Democracia Marxiana  o de las diversas escuelas Austríacas.
Variarán en sus causas --siempre sesgadas por sus ideologías respectivas-- pero no en la deriva hacia la miseria. Los medios se ocupan de disimularlo y taparlo pero es muy observable en el día a día: Nos llevan hacia la bicicleta y el patinete como China hace cincuenta años.
Nos tratan de hacer creer que es por "sostenibliidad" --mentira evidente-- pero la realidad es cruda y terca. La diferencia es que ya comienzan a exigir a "the New Personal Transport Media" pólizas de seguros, ITVs y fiscalidades varias.


Por centrarnos en el desastre de la UE dos temas.

1. La Inflación provocada por los gobiernos.
2. La Actividad sostenida con respiración asistida y por decreto.


El ejemplo más claro la Inflación --brutal-- de costes inducida por los gobiernos es el de nuestra ínclita ministra Santa Yoli que en su día enamoró a tanto histórico del PSOE.
Fuerza un incremento de Costes laborales superior al 45% (SMI y cotizaciones) y estos inevitablemente se trasladan a precios que se encarga de disimular un INE cuya dirección ya ha sido cambiada dos veces por el Residente Enamorado.

De paso la recaudación -- cuya base ha sido hábilmente desplazada a  precios-- se dispara y la compra de votos de Free-Riders  crece como la carcoma. Resultado: todos peor menos la casta gobernante.

Otro, más grave por ser menos visible, es el Impuesto sobre el CO2 que pasa de 4 euros TM en 2012 a unos 100 Euros TM  en 2023.  Es decir los costes fiscales integrados en cada producto --desde el aluminio al cemento y a los yogures--  se han multiplicado por este concepto 25 veces en once años. 

Ayer mismo: Va a ser obligatorio renovar el 60% de los ascensores de la UE. Estamos tan en respiración asistida que la actividad económica es por decreto. Inventamos PIB obligando y por decreto. Donde no hay mata...

Que la UE se muere como ente económico es evidente. Como su modelo Soviético.

Pero de momento la prioridad es que esta gente no nos lleve a una guerra.

Saludos



PS. Para entender el tipo de Golpe de Estado que tenemos en marcha en España:
https://www.infobae.com/america/america-latina/2020/12/10/chavez-y-el-golpe-contra-el-tribunal-supremo-el-inicio-del-fin-de-la-democracia-en-venezuela/

Para entender el perfil mental de quienes gobiernan España: Vean y comparen.
https://youtube.com/shorts/VVuvpnFOenI?si=xepvdJEcG-amtSWv

[Derby]

https://thehill.com/business/4689663-freddie-mac-proposes-buying-home-equity-loans/

Freddie Mac proposes buying home equity loans

Government-backed mortgage securitizer Freddie Mac is considering whether to broaden out its portfolio from first-time mortgages to become a purchaser of home equity loans, a move that could offer borrowers more favorable terms than those of private credit markets.

Public comments closed less than a week ago on the proposal, which is getting praise from low-income housing advocates and disapproval from bankers and Republicans.

The new rule, which would provide borrowers a cheaper loan option than cash-out refinancing, is specifically responsive to the higher interest rate financing environment that is putting the squeeze on the housing sector. Interbank interest rates currently sit at an effective 5.33 percent, their highest levels since 2001.

“In the current mortgage interest rate environment, a closed-end second mortgage may provide a more affordable option to homeowners than obtaining a new cash-out refinance or leveraging other consumer debt products,” the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) wrote in its proposal.

FHFA is the federal agency in charge of overseeing Freddie Mac — formally known as the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation — and Federal National Mortgage Association, also known as Fannie Mae.

Fannie and Freddie each buy mortgages and package them into mortgage-backed securities, which are purchased by investors. The sales are intended to broaden the pool of Americans who can afford home loans and keep rates lower.

In a scenario comparing the new home equity loan proposal to a cash-out refinancing option, borrowers could save $136.77 in monthly payments as a result of the new product, FHFA said.

The new type of loan is the first time Freddie Mac or any of the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) that underpin the U.S. housing market have offered a fundamentally new type of product since they were nationalized as conservatorships in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis.

“We applaud Freddie Mac for its innovation and identifying a need in the market and seeking to create liquidity for a mortgage product other than a first lien mortgage loan,” Garth Rieman, a director of the National Council of State Housing Agencies, which advocates for low-income housing groups around the country, told the FHFA last week.

Rieman said the bounds of the new rule should be expanded, allowing for secondary loan amortization write-offs to extend throughout the course of the primary loan rather than cutting them off at a 20-year limit, as proposed.

Bankers and Republicans are against the new product proposal and fear it will cut into the business of the enormous private lending market. In 2022, there were $37.8 billion in secondary loan originations and $211.1 billion in maximum credit extended to borrowers, according to a 2023 study of the home equity loan market by the Mortgage Bankers Association, a trade group for home lenders.

“Government subsidization will not only enable the proposed product to offer terms that are economically impossible for private capital to match, but represents a vast (albeit indirect) expansion by the GSEs into these other credit markets,” Republican legislators including Sens. JD Vance (Ohio) and Mike Crapo (Idaho) as well as Reps. Warren Davidson (Ohio) and Blaine Luetkemeyer (Mo.) wrote to FHFA on Friday.

Several Democratic congressional offices declined to comment on the proposal, including those of House Financial Services Committee ranking member Rep. Maxine Waters (Calif.), and Senate Banking Committee Chair Sherrod Brown (Ohio). The White House also declined to comment, referring questions to FHFA.

Asked about precedents for the new product, its effect on private lending markets, and how exactly it will be securitized, the FHFA told The Hill on Tuesday that it is “reviewing comments from the public to inform our evaluation of this proposed new Enterprise product.”

“As with all activities FHFA considers, the safety and soundness of the [GSEs] and the mortgage finance system are fundamental requirements of any program,” the agency added.

Bankers blasted the secondary mortgage from Freddie Mac as unnecessary.

“The Freddie Mac proposal published by FHFA offers no data to support an assertion that the private market is not sufficiently meeting the demand for these second liens,” Joseph Pigg, senior vice president of the American Bankers Association, wrote to FHFA last week.

“While our members report growing demand for second liens, they have not raised concerns about insufficient capacity,” he wrote.

While FHFA says that resolution and loss-mitigation servicing for second mortgages would basically work as it does for first mortgages, private insurers are also against the proposal, arguing that it’s “duplicative of an already active private market, and raises important, unanswered questions,”said Seth Appleton, president of the U.S. Mortgage Insurers trade group.

Despite the pushback from bankers and insurers, one industry representative told The Hill that because it’s the first time the GSEs are offering a new product since the 2008 collapse of the banking sector, the move represents a first test of a new rulemaking process.

Accordingly, mortgage bankers are stressing that there are still a lot of unknowns about what’s going to emerge.

“What does Freddie Mac estimate base loan pricing will look like? Will pricing be equitable for lenders of all sizes?” Pete Mills, head of residential policy at the Mortgage Bankers Association, wrote to FHFA.

Amid higher interest rates and a concentration of consumer-facing inflation in the housing sector, housing agencies have shown some sensitivity to the pressures facing renters, tenants and mortgage holders.

In April, the Department of Housing and Urban Development put in place what amounts to a 10 percent rent increase cap for the low-income housing tax credit, a move that was hailed by tenant rights advocates.

[sudden and sharp]

[...] En general los economistas no ideologizados saben que Occidente está inmerso en una crisis de pauperización monumental desde hace unos 50 años.

Ni hablar Manu, eso no es así.


Coge el europeo mediano --no medio--; y compáralo con el extranjero mediano --no medio--; que quieras. Haz la comparación en los terminos que quieras... a poder ser no te limites al ingreso mediano --en dólares--. Ganamos de calle.





Es así.



-------
La guerra de las narices. Es el Putinejo el que nos ha metido en ella. No nuestros gobernantes, por malos que te parezcan. Eligió el sátrapa de Putin, no nosotros. [ Que sólo podemos elegir el grado de su derrota. ]

[Saturio]

Otra de esas cosas que no gusta leer.

https://futurocienciaficcionymatrix.blogspot.com/2023/01/las-tres-fases-tras-el-peak-oil.html

O sea que el peak oíl coincide con el momento en que la natalidad mundial queda por debajo de la tasa de reposición de la población... Qué catástrofe., no?
Por cierto, ¿no decía Turiel que el diesel tenía que estar ya más caro que la gasolina?

El típico articulo de vamos a morir cienes de veces. La situación no es ideal, y se vislumbra un futuro complicado, pero lo vuelvo a repetir:

- El año pasado, por 1era vez en la historia, la inversión en renovables fué superior a la inversión en combustibles fósiles a nivel mundial.

- Pongo de ejemplo a España. Ya estamos superando (ligerísimamente, eso sí) el 50% de producción electrica con renovables. Un 20% es nuclear, así que nos queda "sólo" un 30% de producción fósil.

- Ayer, sin ir más lejos, entre las 22:00 de la noche y las 5:30 de la mañana se producían 600 MW de solar térmica y más de 6000MW de hidráulica (las 2 totalmente gestionables). Queda mucho, muchísimo que hacer en almacenamiento, pero soy muy optimista en un horizonte a 10 años con las batarias LFP y de sodio. Si hemos sido capaces de crecer una barbaridad en 10 años en Eólica y Fotovoltaica, porque no podemos seguir creciendo ahora que los costes se reducen?

Peak Oil? Si claro, pero con voluntad se pueden abordar los problemas. Algunas cosas serán más caras, otras seguramente menos. Ser autosuficiente a nivel energético es crucial. No se porque a veces se hace tanto push con el cambio climático, muchos escépticos no pueden negar la evidencia que aumentando autosuficiencia seremos más competitivos y podremos tener un mejor estado del bienestar.

Turiel. Ya que es engeniero, investigador y académico, se lo podría currar algo más. En lugar de citar articulillos y noticias de aquí y de allí, podría currarse unas curvas y unas ecuaciones. El puede. Tiene los datos, que se los mire. Que mire los datos de la industria, sus inputs energéticos y su output y que según sus estimaciones de producción produzca proyeccciones concretas de outputs futuros. Que de estimaciones de cómo caerá el nivel de vida, el PIB, la renta per cápita, los indicadores de salud...
Para hacer comentarios de barra de bar ya estamos nosotros aquí.
Además, de esa manera, lo que dice sería falsable.
Porque decir que en el futuro habrá guerras, revoluciones y revueltas también lo digo yo. Como si ahora no las hubiese. Ah, que es porque el peak-oil ya se está manifestando, bueno hace 10 años también las había y hace 20, 30 y 35. Por supuesto que va a acertar, igual que Rappel cuando salía y decía que ese año moriría algún mandatario importante.

Uno de los puntos más interesantes es lo de cómo se sabe que el peak oil ya ha sucedido. Es decir, cómo estima que demanda se ha quedado sin cubrir por haber alcanzado el pico de producción. ¿No será que básicamente producimos lo que se demanda?.

No sé por ejemplo:

La demanda de energía eléctrica en España durante el año 2023 presentó un descenso del 2,3 % respecto al año anterior, alcanzando un total de 244.665 GWh demandados.

Soy consciente de hablamos de demanda eléctrica. Los datos con los que contamos nos dicen que el PIB español creció un 2,5% descendiendo la demanda (y por lo tanto la producción) de energía eléctrica un 2,3%. (Habría que ver los efectos de los intercambios internacionales)
Caramba, quién diría que en los últimos 10 años el pico de demanda eléctrica fue 2018.

Un descenso o estabilización de la producción de petróleo no quiere decir que nos estemos quedando sin petróleo o que haya demanda sin cubrir lo que se manifestaría, entiendo, en subidas de precios sin precedentes.

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-29/ecb-to-impose-first-ever-fines-on-banks-for-climate-failures

ECB to Impose First-Ever Fines on Banks for Climate Failures

Several lenders didn’t progress enough on risk assessment
Fines per day can technically be up to 5% of daily revenue

The European Central Bank is set to take the unprecedented step of imposing fines on several lenders for their protracted failure to address the impact of climate change.

As many as four lenders face penalties after not meeting deadlines set by the ECB for assessing their exposure to climate risks, according to people familiar with the matter. The amounts aren’t final yet and may be largely symbolic, the people said, who asked not to be named as the move isn’t public.

A spokeswoman for the ECB, which directly oversees more than 100 banks, declined to comment.

The imposition of fines still marks an unusually harsh step toward forcing banks to comply with the ECB’s views on how they should manage climate risks. The move comes after years of pressure, with former banking supervision head Andrea Enria stating in a September interview with Bloomberg that the ECB would resort to such sanctions as an alternative to higher capital requirements.

The fines rack up every day and can amount to as much as 5% of a lender’s daily average revenue. For a bank with annual revenue of €10 billion ($10.9 billion), for example, that would suggest daily penalties of as much as €1.4 million in the toughest scenario, although the actual fines imposed may be much smaller.

The banks singled out for penalties are now accruing daily fines for as long as the deficiencies persist, the people said. Mitigating factors may be taken into account as well, meaning some fines could be reduced or even negated, said one of the people.

The ECB has repeatedly warned that lenders aren’t doing enough to prepare for the fallout of extreme weather shocks on asset values, or the risk that clients with big carbon footprints might go out of business. The watchdog has said it initially threatened 18 banks with penalties, implying that ECB pressure is leading to results for most firms.

European regulations require banks to assess whether they are — or will be — exposed to material risks, and that they reflect that in their capital reserves. The ECB has said lenders typically need to understand all the relevant drivers of climate and environmental-related risk and how these are affected given their exposures.

The rigor with which the ECB is pushing banks to manage their climate risk stands in contrast to the approach taken by the Federal Reserve, with Chairman Jerome Powell saying the Fed has “narrow, but important, responsibilities regarding climate-related financial risks.” Banks in Europe have warned that the schism in regulatory environments risks putting them at a competitive disadvantage to their US peers.

Frank Elderson, a member of the ECB’s Executive Board, has shown little inclination to slow down European efforts on climate. In a May 8 blog post, he wrote that “a materiality assessment is not just a ‘nice to have’ — knowing your risks is a precondition for being able to address them.”

While some banks have started to set aside capital to cover climate-related risks and improved their risk management, Elderson listed several deficiencies, including:

*Not considering all relevant risk categories

*Focusing only on transitional risks and omitting physical risks, or only looking at a subset of geographic regions

*Using a net approach rather than gross to identify risks, undermining banks’ ability to measure actual impact and plan for mitigation

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://elpais.com/economia/2024-05-29/por-que-los-precios-de-la-vivienda-no-bajan-aunque-se-venda-menos.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://cincodias.elpais.com/economia/2024-05-29/mas-cansancio-mas-viejos-y-mas-bajas.html

https://elpais.com/economia/2024-05-29/mas-bajas-que-nunca-y-subiendo-12-graficos-para-entender-la-explosion-de-la-incapacidad-temporal-en-espana.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://elpais.com/economia/2024-05-28/siemens-gamesa-concentra-el-10-de-su-ajuste-en-espana-con-430-despidos.html

Saludos.

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/7fe47b5c-c6e5-42f8-8faa-9bc6305027a5

Stocks sink as bond sell-off fuels jitters

Tepid demand for new US Treasury auctions drives rates higher and prompts a retreat in major stock indices

A global bond sell-off intensified on Wednesday and prompted a stock retreat as well, following the latest in a series of US Treasury auctions to receive a lukewarm reception from investors.

An auction for $44bn of new seven-year Treasury notes in the early afternoon was met with tepid interest from buyers, the third weak US government bond auction in two days. Auction sizes were increased earlier this year and investors and analysts have since warned about the market’s capacity to absorb the deluge of new supply.

Treasury yields broadly rose to their highest levels in a month following the seven-year auction, building on a sell-off that had started the day before in the wake of weak two- and five-year auctions. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose to a peak of 4.64 per cent, its highest level since early May. Bond yields rise as prices fall.

Stocks had sold off earlier in the day, though the auction ultimately had little effect on the main Wall Street indices. The S&P 500 was down 0.5 per cent in mid-afternoon, while the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.2 per cent.

European stocks were more downbeat. London’s FTSE 100 shed 0.7 per cent, France’s Cac 40 lost 1.5 per cent and Germany’s Dax fell 1.1 per cent. The region-wide Stoxx 600 fell 1 per cent.

The equity and bond market moves came after the release of strong consumer confidence data on Tuesday — which lowered expectations of interest rate cuts in the near future.

Hawkish comments from Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari fanned the sell-off as traders looked ahead to Friday’s release of the US Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. “I don’t think anybody has totally taken rate increases off the table,” Kashkari said on Tuesday.

“Blame bond yields” for the stock market slide, said Chris Turner, a currency strategist at ING.

Soft Treasury auctions and higher than expected Australian inflation overnight had pushed longer-dated global bond yields higher, all of which eventually proved “a headwind to equities,” he said.

Analysts at Royal Bank of Canada said “yesterday’s [US Treasury] weakness, spurred by weak auction results . . . continued overnight” and “weighed on equities”.

Yields on 10-year German bonds rose 0.10 percentage points to 2.69 per cent, the highest level since November.



Data published on Wednesday showed German inflation picked up more than forecast to a four-month high owing to an acceleration of services prices. German wages rose 6.4 per cent in the first quarter, separate data showed, giving workers in Europe’s largest economy their biggest real-terms pay rise after inflation since records began in 2008.

Investors turned to energy stocks even as prices for Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, slipped 0.6 per cent to $83.70 a barrel. Among the Stoxx 600’s 20 constituent sectors, only energy rallied on the day, up 0.3 per cent. 

The “global trend of risk-off” in equity and bond markets has left companies tied to in-demand commodities as the “only safe havens”, JPMorgan analysts said in a note to clients on Wednesday.

The US dollar index, a measure of the dollar’s strength against a basket of six other currencies, was up 0.4 per cent.

Sterling, meanwhile, rose to a 21-month high against the euro as traders backed away from bets on imminent Bank of England rate cuts. 

[Cadavre Exquis]

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