PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Primavera 2024

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/cb6d27a5-d9ec-4637-b2ad-c32fbb1fd803

US producer prices ease more than forecast in May

US wholesale inflation unexpectedly cooled in May, in a further sign that price pressures could be easing amid tight monetary policy.

The producer price index, a leading indicator of inflation, shrank 0.2 per cent last month, the labour department said on Thursday. Economists had forecast a 0.1 per cent month-on-month increase.

The annualised rate slipped to 2.2 per cent, from an upwardly revised April reading of 2.3 per cent that was the highest in a year. Economists had forecast a year-on-year reading of 2.5 per cent.

Core PPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, was flat in May, pushing the annualised rate down to 2.3 per cent from an upwardly revised 2.5 per cent in April.

Consumer price growth eased more than expected in May, but the Federal Reserve has remained hawkish and expects only one rate cut this year.

[asustadísimos]

['Descompensación entre oferta y demanda' es una frase triplemente metafísica. La oferta, nadie sabe lo que es. La demanda, excuso decir. Descompensación es música celestial. Lo realmente existente es un objeto cierto-materia de un contrato, ofertante —nada de 'oferentes' en plural—, demandantes y control social.]

[JENOFONTE10]

ÚLTIMO REFUGIO (SHELTER) DE LA 'RARAFLACIÓN' EN EE.UU.

El IPC general de los últimos tres meses es del 2,8%. Pero sin vivienda es del 1,7%. Todos conocemos los problemas de los precios de la vivienda, por lo que está claro que otras áreas de la inflación están mejorando, y con bastante rapidez. – Ryan Detrick

16:15 | 13/06/2024 https://serenitymarkets.com/noticias-bolsa/secciones/ultimas-noticias

Saludos.

[asustadísimos]

El gran error de Europa es creerse Occidente
«Un español debería mear siempre mirando a Inglaterra»

[newclo]

https://serenitymarkets.com/noticias-bolsa/el-ipc-general-de-los-ultimos-tres-meses-es-del-28-pero-sin-vivienda-es-del-17-todos-conocemos-los-problemas-de-los-precios-de-la-vivienda-por-lo-que-esta-claro-que-otras-areas-de-la-inflacion-e

EDITO: Perdón no había leído que estaba más arriba. pero da tranquilidad saber que no me necesitan

[asustadísimos]

[Hace no mucho tiempo, una sobrina me pidió mi opinión sobre los números de una franquicia de una conocidísima tienda de ropa francesa. Quería montarla ella —con un préstamo avalado por su padre—, en el barrio de Salamanca, de Madrid. Creo que ya lo he contado. Contacté con la propietaria del local, una hortera idiota que me recondujo al asesor fiscal de su sociedad patrimonial de mierda. Me negué en redondo al proyecto: honrar el alquiler («no-negociable») requería un volumen de ventas imposible. Mi sobrina estaba separándose y su padre quería ayudarla. El caso es que su ex acabó montando la franquicia, pero él solo. Hoy, ella ha rehecho su vida. Hace poco ha dado una fiesta. Se me agarró al cuello con una amiga suya —una primaveral morena que lucía un vestido de look estatua, supuestamente superador del look 'ratxet'—: Este es mi tío, que me salvó la vida. El ex no solo se arruinó. Cayó en una trama de facturas falsas. Mi mujer acudió rauda. Y, a mí, se me puso cara de acelga, aunque, según mi amiga Ángela Molina, estoy 'de muy bien ver' —malísimo presagio—.]

Chanel: look de estatua (Premios de la Academia de la Música, 2024)

[asustadísimos]

[Ya estamos en las 24 horas de Le Mans.]

[senslev]

https://www.eldiario.es/andalucia/cadiz/final-feliz-maria-cadiz-club-futbol-compra-casa-evita-desahucio_1_11447318.html

Tras varias semanas de negociaciones, la solución ha llegado de manera inesperada y de la mano del Cádiz Club de Fútbol. La Fundación del equipo amarillo se puso en contacto con la hija de María, Eva Orihuela, y le comunicó su decisión de evitar a toda costa el desahucio. “Queremos ayudarte, la situación de tu madre nos ha conmovido”, le dijo a Eva el gerente de la Fundación, José Mata. Era, según ha explicado la hija, “un mandato del presidente, Manuel Vizcaíno”. Esa Fundación se ha encargado de contactar con los propietarios y ofrecerles 147.000 euros, la misma cantidad por las que quisieron venderle la casa a los hijos de María, aunque ellos no pudieron aceptar esa oferta.

La hija de María agradece al Cádiz su gesto. “Vinieron a vernos ayer Pepe Mata, Vizcaíno y Contreras (vicepresidente) y mi madre me preguntó quiénes eran. Yo les he dicho que eran los tres Reyes Magos”, cuenta Eva. Fuentes de la Fundación han justificado la singularidad de esta decisión por una cuestión de “humanidad” ante un caso que ha conmovido a toda España. El Cádiz adquiere la casa hasta que María la necesite, y ella solo tendrá que pagar la misma renta mensual (97 euros) para mantener la relación contractual.

[Derby]

https://www.commondreams.org/news/corporate-landlords

Corporate Landlords' Profits Soar as Tenants Drown in Rent Hikes and Fees

"Through-the-roof rent hikes based on greed—not need—have kept many Americans from getting ahead," said one advocate at Accountable.US.

With monthly inflation down to its lowest point in more than two years and heading toward the Federal Reserve's target, the Biden administration on Wednesday celebrated "welcome progress."

But an analysis from Accountable. US showed how more than 100 million people who rent their homes in the U.S. are not seeing the benefits of what one Biden spokesperson called "the great American comeback" in their housing costs, particularly millions of people whose homes are owned by corporate landlords.

The government watchdog found that the six largest corporate landlord companies brought in close to a combined $300 million in increased profits in the first quarter of 2024, with the profits mostly stemming from rent hikes.

Overall in the U.S., rent prices have skyrocketed by 31.4% since 2019 while wages have increased by just 23%, meaning tenants need to earn nearly $80,000 per year to keep from being rent-burdened and spending 30% or more of their income on rent.

The six companies included in the Accountable. US analysis on Wednesday have more than rent increases in common: They have all faced lawsuits regarding their use of the property management software company RealPage, which is alleged to have used an algorithm to fix rent prices, impacting about 16 million rental units in the United States.

The largest net income increase Accountable. US found among the six corporate landlords was that of Camden Property Trust, which increased its net income by 97% in the first quarter of this year to $85.8 million. The company spent $50 million on stock buybacks that it said were made possible by its "weighted average monthly rental rate," which went up nearly 2% year over year.

"Big corporate landlords have kept right on raising rent on everyday families regardless of how high their profits have grown."

Essex Property Trust increased its net income by 76% year over year to more than $285 million, also raising rents by 2.1%, while Equity Residential's income jumped 39% to $305 million as it increased its rental rates by 3.4%, with tenants paying an average of $3,077.

AvalonBay Communities saw its net income increase 18% to $173.6 million, apparently owing both to its "rental and other income" revenue going up by 5.6% and its "management, development, and other fees" for tenants soaring by 68.4% to nearly $1.8 million.

"Big corporate landlords have kept right on raising rent on everyday families regardless of how high their profits have grown. Adding insult to injury, many landlords rewarded a small group of wealthy investors with new handouts at the expense of struggling tenants," said Liz Zelnick, director of the economic security and corporate power program at Accountable.US.

The group's analysis was released weeks after the Federal Bureau of Investigation conducted a raid on an Atlanta-based property management firm in the Department of Justice's antitrust investigation into RealPage regarding "allegations of a nationwide conspiracy to artificially inflate apartment rents."

As Competition Policy International (CPI) reported earlier this month, "RealPage's system, which provides rental price recommendations based on real-time data from landlords, is alleged to be a key tool in manipulating the rental market. The firm's influence covers 70% of multifamily apartment buildings."

"The scheme purportedly operated by encouraging landlords to adopt RealPage's pricing recommendations, a practice they follow 80-90% of the time," reported CPI. "This coordinated approach reduces the availability of rental units, driving up prices. One of the architects of RealPage's system reportedly stated that the aim is to prevent landlords from undervaluing their properties, ensuring consistently higher rents across the board."

Zelnick said it was "unsurprising that some of the same companies that needlessly inflated housing costs have worked closely with a software company accused of helping landlords coordinate a massive price fixing scheme. Through-the-roof rent hikes based on greed—not need—have kept many Americans from getting ahead, which is why Congress must do more to support the Biden administration's affordable housing actions."

President Joe Biden has urged Congress to pass legislation to stop price gouging by landlords and to build millions of affordable rental units.

[Derby]

https://wolfstreet.com/2024/06/12/beneath-the-skin-of-cpi-inflation-a-stunning-outlier-services-cpi-drove-down-everything-else/

Beneath the Skin of CPI Inflation: A Stunning Outlier Services CPI Drove Down Everything Else

Services are big, and that one-month outlier was massive, and it drove down Core CPI and overall CPI.

(...)The housing components of core services CPI.

Rent of Primary Residence CPI rose by 4.8% annualized in May from April, an acceleration from the prior month (blue).

The three-month reading rose by 4.7%, the smallest increase since October 2021.

The Rent CPI accounts for 7.6% of overall CPI. It is based on rents that tenants actually paid, not on asking rents of advertised units for rent. The survey follows the same large group of rental houses and apartments over time and tracks the rents that the current tenants actually paid in these units.



The Owners’ Equivalent of Rent CPI rose by 5.3% annualized in May from April, an acceleration from the prior month. It remains in the range of which August 2023 had been the low point (+5.1%).

The three-month OER CPI also rose by 5.3% annualized, roughly the same as in the prior month.

The OER index accounts for 26.6% of overall CPI. It is designed to estimate inflation of “shelter” as a service for homeowners – as a stand-in for the services that homeowners pay for, such as interest, homeowner’s insurance, HOA fees, maintenance, and property taxes. As an approximation, it is based on what a large group of homeowners estimates their home would rent for, the assumption being that a homeowner would want to recoup cost increases by raising the rent.



“Asking rents…” The Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) and other private-sector rent indices track “asking rents,” which are advertised rents of vacant units on the market. Because rentals don’t turn over that much, the ZORI’s spike in 2021 through mid-2022 never fully translated into the CPI indices because not many people actually ended up paying those asking rents.

The ZORI rose by 0.2% in May from April, seasonally adjusted, and by 3.4% year-over-year.

The chart shows the CPI Rent of Primary Residence (blue, left scale) as index value, not percentage change; and the ZORI in dollars (red, right scale). The left and right axes are set so that they both increase each by 55% from January 2017. The ZORI was up by 49% from January 2017, and the CPI Rent was up by 38% over the same period.



Rent inflation vs. home-price inflation: The red line in the chart below represents the CPI for Rent of Primary Residence (actual rents paid by tenants) as index value. The purple line represents the Case-Shiller 20-Cities Home Price Index (see our “Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America”). Both indexes are set to 100 for January 2000:

[newclo]

Como antes puse un enlace que ya acababan de poner ahora traigo uno nuevo:

https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/boardmeetings/20240614closed.htm

Federal Reserve Alert! The Fed to hold a CLOSED meeting at 9:30 a.m. on Friday, June 14, 2024 for an update on Bank Stress Tests.


-----------------
Y este que no cuenta porque es de tuiter

https://x.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1801265955391103222

CLOs are back on the menu

[sargento.algodon]

La gente cuenta muy pocas cosas a su asesor fiscal. Muchas veces creen que es contárselas a Hacienda y nadie cuenta cosas a Hacienda voluntariamente (si no hay consecuencias o castigos o una conciencia social que en teoría el "homo economicus" ese no tiene). Pero cuando me ha tocado examinar los números de un negocio (siempre a toro pasado, para hacer una declaración tributaria o afrontar una inspección) de los que tienen que tener un local abierto al público los precios de los alquileres que pagaban (con su IVA) me han parecido imposibles. No los dudo, porque si yo los veía, los vería también Hacienda pidiendo su cuarto al arrendador y concediendo un gasto deducible al arrendatario.

No sé cuantas comidas, vestidos, vapeadores o cualquier otra tonteria hay que vender mensualmente (bueno, miento, a veces si lo he calculado) para sólo pagar el arrendamiento del local con su IVA. Ventas al por menor que sólo irán en factura abreviada o ticket, e incluso irán sin IVA si se aplica el régimen de recargo de equivalencia. Muchas veces pensaba y pienso, cuando paso delante de determinados locales, que tienen otras fuentes de liquidez para afrontar esos pagos. Y cuanto tiempo aguantara un local abierto, con un negocio más o menos viable, pero que sólo es viable en un determinado sitio (la gente, que es muy cómoda para cruzar de una acera a otra en una calle) e inviable con un arrendamiento en ese mismo sitio.

Pero como he dicho, la gente me cuenta pocas cosas.

[sudden and sharp]

Overwhelming...

Pospuesto a mañana. 

[Vipamo]

Muchas veces pensaba y pienso, cuando paso delante de determinados locales, que tienen otras fuentes de liquidez para afrontar esos pagos.

En mi manzana la mayoría de negocios con local  son accesorios para móviles y badulaques por un lado (gestionados por paquis) y por otro  tatuadores, barbería, delicatessen y hasta un súper que llevan napolitanos. Estos han ido llegando en los últimos años y se están posicionando poco a poco.
Parece que tienen más músculo financiero que los chusmosos emprendedores patrios para soportar los alquileres.
 los barceloneses fetén se dedican a abrir la
mano una vez al mes.

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/90fb4880-d444-480e-ac63-f409f7bbd5c7

What investors should learn from a Berlin housing saga

Corporate boards might be surprised by some of the ideas floating around on Europe’s left-leaning political wing

There is (almost) nothing as alarming for investors as political populism. Just ask anyone holding French government bonds. 

In recent days, the risk premium of these securities (as measured by the spread between French and German 10-year bonds) has surged following the stunning victory of French far-right populists in European parliamentary elections.

Cue investor angst — and rising scrutiny of other resurgent populist rightwing groups that might have inflationary, debt-expanding policies. Donald Trump, the would-be US president, is just one more case in point.

But as jitters mount, it is not only rightwing populists that deserve attention; the leftwing variant might yet spring some surprises, too. That might not seem obvious today: the leftwing parties that are on track to win elections this year — such as Britain’s Labour — are relatively moderate.

But history shows that protest votes can easily flip if one variant of populism fails to deliver what the electorate wants. And corporate boards might be surprised by some of the ideas floating around on Europe’s left-leaning political wing.

Consider, by way of one example, a saga from Berlin’s property sector. A couple of decades ago, the city had what one former mayor labelled a “poor but sexy” reputation: young techies and artists flocked to its graffiti-strewn properties because life seemed cheap.

Then Big Property arrived. Since 2007, a dozen real estate investment groups — such as Deutsche Wohnen, Vonovia, Covivio and Adler — have spent more than €42bn to buy properties there. City planners hoped this would expand the housing supply.

But rents exploded, tripling in neighbourhoods such as Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg and Neukölln, and doubling in outlying regions such as Marzahn-Hellersdorf. And since Berlin is a city where four-fifths of residents rent, this sparked popular anger — particularly among the young who were being squeezed out.

This is not, of course, unique to Germany: as a recent FT series shows, similar stresses exist across the western world. Indeed, on average across the EU some 42 per cent of 25- to 29-year-olds live with their parents due to these pressures, says Eurostat.

But Berlin’s situation is extreme. So is the political response: in 2021 activists organised a non-binding referendum on whether the government should expropriate 240,000 dwellings in the city owned by big investment groups (those with more than 3,000 properties).

Initially, this seemed quixotic. But, as Joanna Kusiak, a Polish-born sociologist and activist, explains in a striking new book Radically Legal, the campaigners built a grassroots coalition. They then invoked little-known provisions of the German constitution, which protect citizens from concentrations of power, to underpin their demands.

When the referendum occurred, it passed with the support of 59 per cent of voters. Mainstream political parties opposed it and demanded a review. But when this was completed last year, it deemed the motion to be constitutional. So the activists are now planning a second — binding — referendum. If that also passes, the Berlin government may end up having to spend billions of euros it currently doesn’t have to buy apartment blocks back from property giants and bring them into public ownership.

That will appal red-blooded, free-market capitalists. And the property companies themselves argue — correctly — that if expropriation does happen, it might be counter-productive, since it will undermine future private investment and hurt anyone with a pension invested in property funds (ie ordinary workers).

Indeed, the whole concept is apt to seem so shocking to Anglo-Saxon onlookers that some might want to ignore this as simply a “made-in-Germany” tale. But extreme or not, the saga is also a canary in the proverbial coal mine. It shows what can happen when popular anger erupts about rising prices — and corporate power.

After all, Berlin is not alone in having politicians who mutter about the need for rent controls. Similar themes are heard in the state of Washington in the US (where median rents jumped 34 per cent between 2001 and 2019) and in the Labour party in the UK (where rents jumped 8.9 per cent in the year to April).

So the lesson that moderate politicians (and anxious real estate investors) need to learn from Berlin is that if they hate the idea of rent controls and/or expropriations, they urgently need to find other ways to counter the rental squeeze, most notably by expanding the housing stock.

One way to do this might be to relax property codes, to make private-sector construction easier. This matters given that investment in housing development shrank from 0.17 per cent of GDP in 2001 to 0.06 per cent in 2018, according to the OECD. Another sensible idea would be to use public money to build social housing. While a third would be to reform the tax system to undo the bias towards owner-occupied properties. The OECD has, for example, proposed replacing transaction taxes on property with an annual tax on land value.

Such policies will not be easy to enact. But the grim truth is that there is almost nothing as likely to hurt faith in capitalism and spark anti-elite populism — on both right and left — as a lack of housing, particularly when immigration is rife. So let us hope centrist politicians urgently act. If not, investors have (another) reason to worry.