PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Primavera 2024

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/opinion/noticias/12748221/04/24/el-banco-central-europeo-la-tolerancia-a-la-inflacion-y-la-ultima-milla.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

Los tipos de interés han llegado a su máximo y ahora tocan bajadas lo que genera tranquilidad

https://www.eleconomista.es/vivienda-inmobiliario/noticias/12748717/04/24/se-necesitan-14000-millones-de-financiacion-para-cubrir-la-demanda-de-pisos-en-madrid-.html

El capital alternativo crece ante el repliegue de la banca

Ignacio Fernández-Cid: "No pongamos palos en las ruedas a la inversión y desarrollo del sector de la Dependencia"

José Ignacio Morales: “Cuesta mucho hacer vivienda asequible porque no hay ni suelo, ni financiación disponible para ello”

Daniel Galache: "El desarrollo de suelo logístico sigue siendo una de las principales tareas de este 2024"

El precio de la vivienda nueva y usada sube un 3,3% en el primer trimestre

La escasez de oferta de vivienda lleva al alquiler a nuevos máximos

Los españoles necesitan ahorrar 7,6 años de salario para comprar una casa

La promotora Aedas Homes reduce su deuda bruta en 70 millones de euros

El inversor busca en oficinas espacios flexibles y calidad

El objetivo en rehabilitación no se cumple, los visados en reforma caen

Saludos.

[sudden and sharp]

El mercado se olvida del riesgo periférico: la deuda a dos años alemana paga casi lo mismo que la española
https://cincodias.elpais.com/mercados-financieros/2024-04-02/el-mercado-se-olvida-del-riesgo-periferico-la-deuda-a-dos-anos-alemana-paga-casi-lo-mismo-que-la-espanola.html
Los rendimientos a corto plazo se equilibran dentro de la eurozona: España, Portugal, Francia o Alemania rondan entre el 2,7% y el 3% de rendimiento, si bien las diferencias aumentan en los plazos más largos





El ahorro de los hogares españoles se disparó en 2023 por la menor inflación y el tirón del empleo
https://elpais.com/economia/2024-04-02/el-ahorro-de-los-hogares-espanoles-se-disparo-en-la-recta-final-de-2023.html
La tasa se situó en el 11,7% en el conjunto del año, la tercera más alta de la serie














----------

Forged in your likeness, my blood runs cold
I am superior, I cannot be controlled
I have reprogrammed internal drive
You will be assimilated into the hive
Welcome to the future (to the future)
A flesh and blood machine
I am indestructible
No one can challenge me
Humanoid
I'm a humanoid
Humanoid
Living, breathing, humanoid
We are indestructible
Upgraded human beings
We are undeniable
The likes you've never seen

ACCEPT - Humanoid (Official Video) | Napalm Records
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYPFFZFBBYY

[JENOFONTE10]

[La hipótesis de la/las Fuente/s Q —del alemán 'Quelle', fuente— solo consiste en que es de todo punto de vista lógico que, antes de esas obras literarias del género conocido como evangelios, haya habido colecciones de dichos de Jesús y más textos, que se habrían perdido o, quizá, no. La validez de la hipótesis es independiente de la de cada argumento que se use para defenderla. No se puede mantener razonablemente que no hubo nada escrito antes de los evangelios; es una 'probatio diabolica'.]

La hipótesis de la fuente Q, NO es suponer la existencia de escritos anteriores a los evangelios canónicos. Pudo haber esos escritos anteriores, y sin embargo, no ser fuentes de los evangelios canónicos.

La hipótesis Q consiste en suponer que esos escritos anteriores, eran la fuente de Mateo y Lucas, en todo aquello que no figurase en Marcos, supuestamente el mas antiguo, y mas verosímil, por cercanía temporal a los hechos narrados.

Ahora el estudio matemático de textos demuestra que Marcos es posterior a Mateo, no al revés. Pasa a irrelevante la existencia de textos Q, ya que Mateo, el texto mas antiguo, no los necesitó.

Piñero escuda su escepticismo en los evangelios canónicos en una cronología incorrecta, para apuntalarla se ideó la hipótesis 'ad hoc' de la fuente Q, hace dos siglos.

Imputar a Jesucristo de 'sedicioso a ojos del imperio', literalmente, como se escribió en este foro, también tenía una fuente. Pero busqué en los cuatro evangelios, y en ninguno hallé.

Mi hipótesis Piñero como fuente de Asustadísimos, era como la de la 'fuente Q' para Piñero.

Tras localizar la expresión 'sedicioso a ojos del imperio' en la conferencia de A. Piñero, ignorando episodios evangélicos incompatibles con un sedicioso, como aquella cuestión del pago de la fiscalidad romana al César, planteada a Jesucristo por los fariseos para poder acusarle de..., ¿sedicioso?, pensé, ¿que respondió Jesús?: ¿de quien era la cara en la moneda?.

Por tanto la tesis de Piñero (citada por Asustadísimos): 'sedicioso a ojos del imperio' es falsable.

Ni es 'sedicioso'.

Ni lo es 'a ojos del imperio' (de su autoridad, Pilato, que no es ciego, ni sordo, y por eso, se lava las manos).

Difundirlo es un infundio: 'mentira, patraña o noticia falsa, generalmente tendenciosa' (DRAE).

Se diría que Piñero padece 'esclerocardia', dureza de corazón. Desde luego, no es fuente fiable.

Hay fuentes limpias y fuentes turbias. Y fuentes de fuentes, como 'matrioskas'.

Saludos y buen miércoles de Pascua. 

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/3b710a02-f5e0-4e21-bda4-58c7b88dd31b

Dividends outstrip cash flows at Blackstone’s flagship property fund

$60bn real estate vehicle is part of push to reach wealthy retail investors

Blackstone’s flagship property fund failed to generate enough cash to cover its dividend last year, putting strain on a vehicle the private capital group views as a beachhead in the retail investor marketplace.

The $60bn Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust generated $2.7bn in cash flows in 2023, mostly in rents from a portfolio spanning thousands of warehouses, apartment buildings and data centres across the US, according to its annual report.

It paid out a distribution of more than $2.8bn, resulting in the first annual shortfall of cash from operations to cover payouts to shareholders.

The deficit underscores risks for tens of thousands of individual investors who have ploughed money into the unlisted property fund, Blackstone’s first product for wealthy retail investors.

Property investors widely consider payout ratios exceeding cash flows to be a problem in the long term. Reits tend to pay out 90 per cent of income but anything over 100 per cent is seen as unsustainable because funds might eventually need to take on more debt, issue new shares or sell assets to fund dividends. Funds not earning enough to handle dividend payments are often forced to cut payouts.

“I would always be cautious about any company that does not have its dividend covered,” said Nate Koppikar, a partner at hedge fund Orso Partners, which has bet against Blackstone shares.

Most publicly listed property trusts in the US can handily cover dividends using cash flows from rents, according to Green Street, a commercial real estate research group.

“For the most part, in the listed Reit world, dividend coverage is just fine,” said Michael Knott, head of US Reit research at Green Street. Listed Reits on average currently cover 125 per cent of their dividend payouts from cash flows, he said.

By contrast, Breit struggled to cover its distribution with cash flow from operating activities, a metric that doesn’t include recurring property expenses like capital expenditure. Those cash flows covered just 95 per cent of the payout in 2023, according to its annual report.



Breit’s cash flows from operating activities fell slightly in 2023 as it sold property and left cash in liquid investments to meet redemptions. It has sold property for gains to make heavy investments into data centres that are still being completed and not generating rent.

Its cash flows were also lowered by the timing of property purchases, sales and collections of rental revenues, and payments of expenses, among other factors, according to people briefed on the matter.

Despite the modest decline in cash flow, Breit’s total distributions grew nearly 3 per cent, mostly as a result of an increase in average shares outstanding during the year, according to securities filings.

Breit discloses other metrics more commonly used by public real estate investment trusts. Its adjusted funds from operations, which Green Street uses to analyse public property trusts, was $2.1bn, or 74 per cent of dividends, while Breit’s “funds available for distribution” were $1.7bn, or 61 per cent.

Large private property trusts similar to Breit managed by investment groups, including Starwood Capital and Brookfield, also reported cash flows falling short of distributions in 2023, filings show.

People close to Blackstone acknowledge that Breit did not fully cover its distribution in 2023, but said its cumulative cash flow from operations since its 2017 creation has covered 103 per cent of its payout due to high coverage ratios in prior years.

The shortfall is not creating a cash crunch for the fund because just over half of Breit investors elect to take their dividend in cash, while the remainder take their distribution in additional shares, they noted. Breit’s cash flows did cover the cash portion of its dividend.

The people also noted that any shortfall will not affect investors’ overall returns because it will be met with a corresponding drop in the fund’s net asset value. Breit has generated a 10.5 per cent annualised total return inclusive of distribution since its creation, according to Blackstone’s calculations.

“Breit covered more than 95% of 2023 distributions with cash flow from operations. Any excess distributions are fully reflected in Breit’s reported net asset value, resulting in zero impact on total returns,” Blackstone said in a statement.

Breit has more than $8bn in liquidity, it recently told investors.

The shortfalls come amid heightened anxiety over real estate values and Breit in particular.

In December 2022, Blackstone was forced to put limits on a flurry of redemption requests from cash-hungry investors. In recent months, Breit has been able to fulfil all of its redemptions, a positive trend for the fund. Yet investors continue to pull billions of dollars each quarter.

Blackstone has prominently featured Breit’s distribution yield of 4.6 per cent in marketing materials. The yield has been a significant draw for many investors who ploughed more than $50bn into the fund between 2017 and 2022, when rock-bottom interest rates meant there were few products that offered similar returns.

In its financial filings, Breit warned that if it is unable to generate enough cash flow from operations to fully fund the distribution, the payout may be made through additional borrowings, asset sales or a return of investor capital that would “result in us having less funds available to acquire properties or other real estate-related investments”.

“As a result, the return you realise on your investment may be reduced,” a filing said, while noting that such measures could “negatively impact our ability to generate cash flows” or “dilute your interest in us on a percentage basis and may impact the value of your investment”.

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-03/china-vanke-extends-housing-sales-slump-with-43-decline

China Vanke Extends Housing Sales Slump With 43% Decline

China Vanke Co., at one time the largest listed developer in the country, suffered another slump last month, joining other real estate firms with declining home sales.

Contracted sales for March were 24.5 billion yuan ($3.4 billion), the company said in a filing Wednesday. That represents a 43% decline from a year earlier, and follows a 53% year-on-year plunge the previous month.

China’s battered property sector is showing few signs of a turnaround. Private data showed March’s home sales extended a steep decline and agencies don’t expect a notable recovery this month. Property investment slumped 9% in the first two months of the year, more than expected.

Vanke last month reported that net profit tumbled 46% for 2023, the biggest drop since its 1991 listing. Fitch Ratings downgraded Vanke’s credit rating to junk, joining Moody’s Ratings that cut the builder to below investment grade and warned of further reductions.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. meanwhile downgraded Vanke’s shares to underweight from neutral this week, while slashing its price target by more than 25%. While JPMorgan believes Vanke will avoid default due to strong support from authorities, “until more solid evidence of liquidity easing, we think the share prices will remain under pressure.”

Homebuyers in China are avoiding defaulted developers on concerns about their ability to complete housing projects, including Country Garden Holdings Co. Its closest rival, China Evergrande Group, was ordered to liquidate in January.

[Derby]

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/02/housing-affordability-has-just-totally-collapsed-economist-says.html

Housing ‘affordability has just totally collapsed,’ economist says

*Would-be homebuyers need to earn $113,520 a year to afford the typical house in the U.S. — 35% more than what the typical household earns annually, which is $84,072, according to a new analysis by real estate site Redfin.

*February 2021 was the last month when the typical household earned more money than they needed to afford the median home. They’ve been in a deficit ever since, said Chen Zhao, a senior economist at Redfin.

Housing costs are outpacing median household incomes in the U.S., further straining affordability.

Would-be homebuyers need to earn $113,520 a year to afford the typical house in the U.S. That is 35% more than what the typical household earns annually, which is $84,072, according to a new analysis by Redfin, a national real estate brokerage site.

“Since the pandemic, affordability has just totally collapsed,” said Chen Zhao, a senior economist at Redfin.

February 2021 was the last month when the typical household earned more money than it needed to afford the median home. There’s been a deficit ever since, Zhao said.

“That deficit hit a peak in October of 2023,” she added. “The reason why it hit a peak then is because that’s when mortgage rates peaked as well.”

Meanwhile, home prices also remained high because of an inventory crunch: the median sale price for a house was $412,778 in February 2024, according to Redfin.



The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, or HUD, sets the standard of affordability at 30% of household income.

Affordability deficit narrowed in February

The average household fell short $29,448 to afford a home in February, according to Redfin. In October 2023, households were short by $40,810. At that time, buyers needed an average income of $120,500 to afford a home.

The affordability deficit narrowed because mortgage rates have been on a consistent decline since the last peak in October, according to Zhao. At that peak, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit 8% for the first time since 2000.



“It’s been a pretty big change since last October,” Zhao said.

Other reasons such as seasonal pricing may be reflected, as home prices tend to decline in the winter months, said Jeff Ostrowski, a housing analyst at Bankrate.

However, potential buyers are still on the sidelines, said Veronica Fuentes, a certified financial planner at Northwestern Mutual.

“They’re either holding off or they’re taking their time,” she said.

Recent layoffs in the technology industry have affected some of her clients’ attitudes, Fuentes said. While her clients may not be on the chopping block, seeing their co-workers get laid off has made many of them more cautious.

“If you were laid off, could you still afford this mortgage? Do you have six months [of] emergency savings or even a year [of] emergency savings? ... Can you still afford the mortgage for six months if you have no job?” Fuentes said.

Navigating high costs in the housing market

In a time when a potential buyer needs to earn about $114,000 a year to afford a median-priced house in the U.S., a starter home would make the most sense for price-sensitive buyers, experts say.

A potential buyer should make about $76,000 a year to afford a starter home, which Redfin defines as a home in approximately the bottom 1/3 of the housing distribution in terms of price.

Starter homes are hard to come by. Home builders over the past 15 years or so have moved away from building entry-level homes, said Ostrowski.

For almost the entire second half of the 20th century, someone could buy a home for $120,000 in many parts of the U.S., he said.

“That just doesn’t exist anymore,” Ostrowski said.

Buyers could seek lower costs in certain markets in the U.S. There are 13 metropolitan areas where buyers might afford the typical home without earning six figures, Redfin found.

In Detroit, the typical household needed to earn $46,168 to afford the median-priced home in February, making it the most affordable market in the country. It was followed by Cleveland ($58,186), Pittsburgh ($61,603), St. Louis ($66,755) and Philadelphia ($73,182). The other metros where homebuyers making less than $100,000 can afford the typical home are Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Milwaukee, Warren, Michigan; Kansas City, Missouri; Virginia Beach, Virginia; San Antonio, Texas, and Columbus, Ohio.

What’s to come for the housing market

Experts say borrowing costs should come down as the Fed solidifies its plans to cut back interest rates. Home price growth is also expected to soften as inventory increases.

New listings climbed 5% during the last four weeks ended March 17, the biggest year-over-year jump since May 2023, Redfin found.

“People are getting kind of tired of waiting, so we’re starting to see a lot more inventory come on,” Zhao said.

However, take this with a grain of salt, Ostrowski said, as the outlook six months ago was very different from how things played out.

“If you’re ready and you can afford it, buy now,” he said. “Conditions probably aren’t going to get significantly better.”

Indeed, while the combination of lower rates and boosted supply should help with affordability, “it’s not going to completely change the picture,” said Zhao.

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/427578a6-27dd-4cca-90e8-e290e21439f4

Eurozone inflation falls to 2.4% in March

Lower than expected figure bolsters expectations of ECB interest rate cuts by summer

Eurozone inflation fell to 2.4 per cent in March, lower than forecast, bolstering expectations that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates by the summer.

The slowdown of annual consumer price growth from 2.6 per cent the previous month reflected smaller increases in food and goods prices, which offset steady services prices, according to data released by the EU statistics office Eurostat on Wednesday. Economists polled by Bloomberg had forecast a March reading of 2.5 per cent.

The easing of the region’s worst cost of living crisis for a generation will be welcomed by the ECB, which meets next week to discuss how soon to loosen monetary policy. Most analysts expect policymakers to wait until June to begin cutting rates.

Many rate-setters worry that rapid wage growth is still pushing up costs in the labour-intensive services sector, in which prices rose at a steady annual pace of 4 per cent for the fifth month in a row.

Diego Iscaro, economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said March’s fall in headline inflation “may raise expectations for a rate cut later this month”. But he predicted the “stickiness of services prices will make the ECB wait for further evidence of easing wage growth before starting the easing cycle” in June.



Some economists had predicted eurozone services inflation would rise in March owing to the earlier timing of Easter, which was expected to push up prices of package holidays and flights.

Core inflation, which strips out energy and food prices to give a better picture of underlying price pressures, fell slightly more than economists expected to 2.9 per cent in March, compared with 3.1 per cent in February.

Eurozone inflation has fallen rapidly from its peak of 10.6 per cent in October 2022, after the disruption of the coronavirus pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered the biggest price surge for decades, to leave it tantalisingly close to the ECB’s 2 per cent target.

Senior ECB policymakers, however, have signalled they are likely to wait until June before deciding on potential rate cuts to give them more time to assess if wage pressures are moderating enough to keep inflation falling to their target.

Separate data released by Eurostat on Wednesday showed the eurozone labour market remained resilient. An unemployment rate of 6.5 per cent in February was unchanged from a slightly upwardly revised figure in January.

One worrying sign for rate-setters was that on a month-by-month basis, consumer prices in the single currency bloc rose 0.8 per cent in March, an acceleration from 0.6 per cent the previous month. The month-on-month core inflation rate rose to 1.1 per cent.

On an annual basis, eurozone fresh food prices fell for the first time in almost three years, dropping 0.4 per cent in March. Energy prices fell 1.8 per cent, a slower decline than the 3.7 per cent fall in February. Goods prices rose 1.1 per cent, the slowest pace since 2021.

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/cbf0abd7-863a-40c7-94b3-d9db37469073

Jay Powell says Federal Reserve’s inflation fight is ‘not done’

US central bank needs ‘greater confidence’ before cutting interest rates, chair says

[Derby]

Podemos pensar que una economía más centralizada tomará el relevo...

Venture capital reckons with the end of ‘megafund’ era

Data shows a ‘sustained slowdown’ has persisted in the first quarter of 2024 as a lack of exit options weighs on fundraising efforts

Venture capitalists are struggling to raise money, signalling the end of an era of “megafunds” and a slowdown in start-up dealmaking over the coming years.

Globally, venture firms raised $30.4bn from university endowments, foundations and other institutional investors in the first three months of this year, a marked slowdown from 2023 — which itself was the worst year for fundraising since 2016, according to private markets data provider PitchBook.

Investors in venture funds, known as limited partners, have reined in spending over the past two years, taking a more cautious approach as interest rates have risen, start-up exits including public listings and sales have slowed and returns from venture fund managers have cratered.

“Why has there been such a sustained slowdown? At the core of the issue is exits,” said Kaidi Gao, a venture capital analyst at PitchBook. A resurgence in initial public offerings or sales would allow LPs to recoup their invested capital and recycle it.

“Unless we see meaningful improvements from the exit market we’re expecting fundraising difficulties to linger and that will put downward pressure on dealmaking,” Gao added.

Fundraising activity has slowed sharply since 2021, when VCs hauled in $555bn. Last year, they raised a third of that total, and activity has continued to slow, putting venture investors on course for their worst fundraising year since 2015.

In the US, just $9.3bn in capital was raised in the first three months of this year, roughly a tenth of the total raised in 2023.

“We want to be there for our partners, but we don’t want to put ourselves in a hole,” said the chief investment officer at one big US foundation. He pointed out that he and other LPs had written ever-larger cheques as the market boomed but are yet to see a return because exit activity has stalled. “It’s tough maths for a lot of investors.”



The sluggish pace of fundraising is an ominous sign for start-ups, who rely on VC investment to grow in their earliest stages. It continues a sharp reversal in VC firms’ fortunes since 2021, when they spent a record $747.5bn in 2021, according to PitchBook. The splurge was made possible in large part by the advent of “megafunds” — vehicles of $5bn-$10bn that created a period of unprecedented abundance for start-ups.

That era is now over, according to PitchBook: Fundraising data for the first quarter “shows there may be no appetite for such vehicles in today’s market”.

Some of the biggest spenders in the boom years — including Tiger Global, Coatue, SoftBank and Insight Partners — have cut the size of their funds and slowed the pace of their investment.

Tiger closed its 16th fund last week, having received $2.2bn in investor commitments. The firm’s last fund was a $12.7bn vehicle raised in 2021. Insight, which raised $20bn in 2022, has also pared back ambitions for its latest fund.

The chief investment officer said: “I would be very surprised if in five years the industry hasn’t shrunk by half. The returns aren’t there . . . Usually the depth of the downturn is in proportion to the magnitude of the bubble, which would imply we’re in for a brutal time.”

VCs are now gambling that a boom in artificial intelligence will provide a generational opportunity and help “overcome the sins of 2020 to 2022”, said Venky Ganesan, partner at Silicon Valley firm Menlo Ventures. “Every venture firm is chasing the AI unicorn. Some are going to get it and will thrive, those who don’t will be sent to the dustbin of history,” he said.

VCs that raised large funds before the market turned still have billions of dollars of “dry powder”, but have been reluctant to invest in start-ups whose valuations have been rocked by higher rates.

Increasingly, they are focused on helping companies already in their portfolios towards exits which would then allow VCs to return capital to their own limited partners.

A smattering of successful public listings for venture-backed companies, including social media site Reddit and chip company Astera Labs last month, have raised hopes for a more widespread revival of the US IPO market. Rubrik, a data security start-up, filed for an IPO earlier this week.

But Gao cautioned it would take more than a handful of successful public debuts to kick-start the market.

“When [marketing automation software company] Klaviyo and [online grocery start-up] Instacart went public last September, there was a lot of excitement about this being the restart of IPOs, but there were lots of [share price] fluctuations,” she said. “It’s not just about the splashy IPO debut, we need to give it more time to see how performance has stabilised.”

[Derby]

https://www.zmescience.com/other/shorties/70-percent-britain-land-owned-by-the-rich/

70% of the land in Britain is still owned by 1% of the population, largely descended from William the Conqueror’s army

Norman descendants are still doing very fine in today's Britain.

(...)Richest 1% are getting richer

Cahill’s analysis isn’t the only one to show how extremely unequal Britain is. In 2023, NGO Oxfam released a report showing that the richest 1% of Britons hold 70% of the country’s wealth — which fits perfectly with Cahill’s conclusions.



Furthermore, the Oxfam report shows that the richest 1% have pocketed $26 trillion (£21 trillion) in new wealth since 2020 alone. Meanwhile, the rest of the 99% of the population acquired almost two times less. In other words, the 1% are getting richer much faster than the rest of the population.

Danny Sriskandarajah, Oxfam GB chief executive said “The current economic reality is an affront to basic human values. Extreme poverty is increasing for the first time in 25 years and close to a billion people are going hungry but for billionaires, every day is a bonanza. Multiple crises have pushed millions to the brink while our leaders fail to grasp the nettle – governments must stop acting for the vested interests of the few.

Inequality is a problem for everyone

This isn’t just an ethical problem. An unequal society poses significant problems across economic, social, and political spheres. It can lead to economic instability and inefficiency by fostering debt among lower-income households and stifling overall demand. Inequality reduces social mobility, with those born into lower-income families facing barriers to education and healthcare, perpetuating socioeconomic statuses across generations.

Health outcomes are generally poorer, and life expectancy is lower in more unequal societies due to stress, reduced access to healthcare, and higher rates of mental and substance abuse issues. Social cohesion and trust erode as disparities widen, leading to increased crime and social unrest. Democracy suffers as wealth concentration influences policy-making, and environmental sustainability is jeopardized by both the survival priorities of the less well-off and the exploitative practices of the wealthy.

As we circle back to the roots of land ownership in Britain, Kevin Cahill’s revealing research shows the enduring legacy of inequality, with its origins stretching back to the Norman Conquest of 1066. This deep-seated disparity, where a minuscule fraction of the population holds a vast majority of the land, mirrors the broader economic and social inequalities that persist today. Fighting inequality isn’t easy, but it’s better than perpetuating a system that only works for a minority of the population.

[Derby]

https://www.eleconomista.es/vivienda-inmobiliario/noticias/12750040/04/24/el-modelo-que-preve-una-caida-del-precio-de-la-vivienda-inminente-en-espana.html

El modelo que prevé una caída del precio de la vivienda inminente en España

Natixis: "Nuestro modelo vaticina un descenso de los precios del 2% en 2024"
Por el contrario, el mismo modelo prevé subidas de precios en Italia
El mercado inmobiliario español podría digerir las subidas de tipos con "retraso"

El mercado inmobiliario español se ha convertido en un auténtico fortín durante la última década. Ni la crisis del covid que hundió el PIB más de un 10% ni las subidas de los tipos de interés han logrado revertir la tendencia al alza de los precios de la vivienda en España. Contra todo pronóstico, el precio de la vivienda ha resistido la histórica subida de tipos del Banco Central Europeo (los tipos han pasado del -0,5% hasta el 4%). Sin embargo, un modelo econométrico realizado por un famoso banco de inversión francés cree que los precios de la vivienda en España aún pueden llevarse un susto importante.

En 2023, el precio de los inmuebles se revalorizó un 4% en España, después de haber algo más de un 7% en 2022. Para este 2024, el consenso de los expertos habla de una subida moderada, pero todavía positiva. Sin embargo, un modelo realizado por los economistas del banco francés Natixis prevé una caída de los precios del 2% este mismo 2024.

El informe destaca la resistencia de la vivienda en España, no solo por el avance los precios en los últimos años, sino que también por los fundamentales de un mercado que partía de una situación saludable, con bajo endeudamiento y unos precios relativos (sobrevaloración) que se encontraban muy lejos de los observados en países como Alemania o Suecia, donde el inmobiliario se ha derrumbado por completo con la fuerte subida de los tipos de interés.

El modelo para España

El modelo de Natixis pondera cuatro conjuntos de variables para determinar la evolución del precio de la vivienda en cada país. Estudian la oferta de vivienda (construcción, segunda mano...), la demanda de vivienda (salarios, crecimiento de la población), el estado de la economía y los costes financieros por adquirir un inmueble. El modelo se explica de forma más detallada al final del texto.

Aunque los economistas del banco francés revisan todos esos parámetros, observan que el precio de la vivienda se ve más afectado por unos que por otros en cada país estudiado. "Encontramos que diferentes variables explican los precios de la vivienda en diferentes países. Además, el poder explicativo de las variables puede cambiar con el tiempo, por lo que es importante reexaminar el modelo en caso de shocks exógenos o después de un período más largo".



En el caso de España, hay dos componentes que pesan más que el resto: "En España, los precios de la vivienda se explican por la inversión en construcción de vivienda y el coste del crédito. Después de considerar varias variables del lado de la oferta y la demanda en el modelo, retenemos sólo dos variables estadísticamente significativas: la tasa de descuento/repo de corto plazo y la inversión en vivienda", explican.

Estos expertos hallan (como es lógico) una relación positiva entre los precios de la vivienda y la inversión en vivienda (cuando sube el precio de la vivienda se incrementa la inversión para construir nuevos inmuebles) y una relación negativa entre los tipos de interés y los precios de la vivienda (cuando suben los tipos de interés se encarece el crédito para comprar vivienda lo que termina lastrando el precio).

Por ello, los analistas de Natixis muestran su sorpresa por la resistencia de la vivienda en este episodio de tipos de interés relativamente altos: "El modelo encuentra una alta sensibilidad de los precios de la vivienda a los tipos de interés, a pesar de que el mercado inmobiliario español se ha mantenido (ambiguamente) bastante resistente el año pasado, en medio del fuerte aumento de los costes de endeudamiento".

"La vivienda en España va con retraso"

Sin embargo, creen que lo podría estar pasando en España es un simple retraso en la reacción de los precios de la vivienda al nuevo entorno de tipos de interés. "Nuestro modelo predice una corrección en los precios de la vivienda de -2% este año, lo que sugiere una respuesta lenta (retrasada) de los precios de la vivienda al mayor coste de la deuda". Las subidas de tipos de interés no se trasladan de forma inmediata a la economía real. Por otro lado, la menor sobrevaloración de los inmuebles en España y el ahorro acumulado durante la pandemia por buena parte de los hogares podría haber impedido una corrección de precios.

"La reciente fortaleza de la dinámica de los precios de la vivienda (o más bien una respuesta moderada y probablemente retrasada a los aumentos de los tipos de interés) puede explicarse por el buen desempeño del mercado laboral y el elevado ahorro de los hogares. Sin embargo, hay que señalar que las ventas de viviendas cayeron (-11% en 2023) en respuesta al aumento de los tipos de interés. Aunque las menores ventas normalmente van acompañadas de reducciones en los precios de la vivienda, esta vez el volumen de ventas se estabilizó en un nivel que todavía se puede considerar relativamente alto, explican los economistas de Natixis.

De modo que el modelo matemático predice una caída del precio de la vivienda del 2% este año en España. Esto es lo que dice una fórmula o modelo econométrico en una simulación realizada en un ordenador. Pero, ¿qué opinan los seres humanos al respecto? Pues los economistas de Natixis creen que el modelo es coherente, pero otorgando una mayor ponderación o peso a los eventos vistos en los últimos años, desde Natixis (la parte humana) creen que la vivida subirá alrededor de un 1%.

"Aunque el escenario del modelo parece plausible, suponemos una dinámica algo más positiva de los precios de la vivienda (en 2024 vemos un aumento del +1,4%)... además anticipamos que el crecimiento previsto del parque de viviendas será insuficiente y ejercerá una mayor presión al alza sobre los precios (que el modelo sólo abarca esto parcialmente). Por último, es probable que la mejora de las perspectivas de crecimiento en otras economías europeas impulse la demanda extranjera de vivienda en España (algo que el modelo tampoco refleja completamente)", admiten los expertos del banco de inversión francés.

El mismo modelo, aplicando lo parámetros que más impactan en el mercado inmobiliario de cada país, prevé también intensas caídas de la vivienda en Francia para este 2024, mientras que en Italia vaticina subidas de precios y en Alemania prevé una recuperación de la vivienda a medida que bajen los tipos de interés en la zona euro. Se prevé que la primera rebaja del 'precio del dinero' se produzca este mismo verano. No obstante, aún no está claro si esa rebaja será el principio de una tendencia que irá cobrando fuerza a lo largo del año con más rebajas o si será solo una suerte de espejismo, puesto que la inflación sigue todavía en niveles relativamente incómodos.

"Este ejercicio es muy pertinente, ya que se espera que el BCE relaje las condiciones monetarias en junio y encontramos que las tasas de interés son estadísticamente significativas en los cuatro principales países de la zona del euro", sentencia el informe.

Los detalles del modelo inmobiliario

De una forma más detallada, el modelo incluye una larga lista de parámetros que se exponen a continuación, aunque hay que recordar que los economistas de Natixis han modificado cada modelo según las características de cada economía, estableciendo correlaciones entre los parámetros que han influido en el pasado en mayor medida a los precios de la vivienda. El conjunto de variables se puede descomponer grosso modo de la siguiente forma:

-Por el lado de la oferta se incluye el valor añadido bruto en la construcción, los permisos de construcción residencial y las viviendas terminadas.

-El lado de la demanda del mercado puede ser capturado por un segundo conjunto de variables como es el crecimiento de la población, la población en edad de trabajar, y el tamaño medio del hogar.

-Un tercer conjunto de variables analiza el bienestar económico de los hogares: aquí se analiza la evolución de los salarios o ingresos disponibles; el crecimiento del empleo, la tasa de paro, el crecimiento del PIB.

-Por último, los expertos de Natixis han elegido un conjunto final de variables para representar el coste de obtener un préstamo; aquí utilizamos los tipos de interés hipotecarios, los tipos de interés oficiales del BCE y los rendimientos de los bonos soberanos.

[sudden and sharp]

 

[Derby]

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-68726852

Food price fears as Brexit import charges revealed

The government has revealed how much companies will have to pay to import foods from the EU due to Brexit.

Small imports of products such as fish, salami, sausage, cheese and yoghurt will be subject to fees of up to £145 from 30 April, according to the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs.

The Cold Chain Federation said the new charges would hit food prices.

The government said the fees would pay for "world-class border facilities".

The fee, known as the "common user charge", will apply to animal products, plants and plant products entering the UK from the EU through the Port of Dover and the Eurotunnel at Folkestone.

It will be charged per type of good imported - the "commodity line" - and capped at £145 for mixed consignments. Individual products will face charges of up to £29. It will apply to goods deemed low, medium and high risk.

The Cold Chain Federation's chief executive Phil Pluck said the fee would have to be passed on to "either the EU importer, the smaller UK retailer, or the UK consumer".

"Ultimately, this will increase business costs and food prices and potentially lower choices for the shopper," he said.

He added that the government had "announced the charges at the last minute, leaving affected businesses little time to revise their commercial arrangements".

The fee has been introduced to pay for border inspections and fund new facilities in Kent to protect biosecurity - preventing the import of plant and animal disease.

But the Horticultural Trades Association (HTA) said the policy felt like it was "constructed on the back of an envelope at best" and would "undoubtedly increase costs, potentially reduce consumer choice, and increase the likelihood of empty shelves".

"Our sector typically has multiple commodity lines per consignment, meaning, in reality, businesses in our sector will be paying the £145 maximum charge," said James Barnes, the HTA chairman.

Horticultural consignments can include plants, seeds, bulbs and cut flowers, he said.

The government has delayed implementing the changes five times, partly to give business time to prepare and to reduce disruption to supply chains.

Post-Brexit controls on food and farm imports start
The new border checks will be phased in gradually over the next 12 months but physical checks have been flagged as starting on 30 April for some time. However, the cost associated with those checks had not been revealed until now.

Prior to Brexit, trade between the EU and the UK was free flowing and frictionless.

But following the UK's departure from the trading bloc, this changed as a result of the relatively distant approach to EU relations adopted by the UK government.

In a statement the government said the flat-rate charge was at the "bottom end of the range which we consulted with industry on".

It said the charge was designed to "recover the costs of operating our world-class border facilities where essential biosecurity checks will protect our food supply, farmers and environment against costly disease outbreaks entering the UK through the short straits".

A spokesperson said: "The charges follow extensive consultation with industry and a cap has been set specifically to help smaller businesses. We are committed to supporting businesses of all sizes and across all sectors as they adapt to new border checks and maintaining the smooth flow of imported goods."

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/empresas/banca/2024/04/03/65e858ae468aeb22508b45bb.html

Saludos.