PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Primavera 2024

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/865df161-53fc-4e28-b383-999428800c6c

European house prices fall in fourth quarter

European house prices fell in the final months of last year, with markets falling in northern and central EU states but booming in some eastern and southern countries.

Eurozone residential property prices in the fourth quarter fell 0.7 per cent from the previous quarter and 1.1 per cent from a year earlier, according to data from Eurostat. Prices in the wider EU fell 0.3 per cent from the previous quarter, but rose 0.3 per cent from a year earlier.



The biggest declines on an annual basis were 14.4 per cent in Luxembourg, 7.1 per cent in Germany, 4.4 per cent in Finland and 3.6 per cent in France. But prices surged in some countries, including Poland, Bulgaria, Croatia, Lithuania and Portugal, where they rose between 13 and almost 8 per cent.

[asustadísimos]

RUSIA E ISRAEL.—

Ucrania y Gaza son las dos operaciones militares especiales relevantes para la última fase de la transición estructural en que está el sistema capitalista —suelta de vuelo en solitario del nuevo modelo de sustitución del popularcapitalista de los 1980, dotando al capitalismo de más planificación y fiscos y monedas estables, y finalización de los juegos de dinero-sin-trabajar que caracterizan al modelo sustituido, que constituyen la gran debilidad del sistema capitalista en su conjunto—.

Las dos tienen el mismo patrón:
— unos fachas periféricos sediciosos, que tienen secuestrada a su población, se creen superiores y con derecho a desagradar;
— fastidian a sus poderosos centros capitalistas de referencia cobrándose vidas humanas;
— los centros reaccionan contra las periferias, como centros que son;
— los periféricos resisten e invocan cínicamente supuestos apoyos internacionales, que reciben también cínicamente;
— pero hay entente entre los centros, que son implacables; el tiempo pasa y la transición estructural madura;
— no obstante, los parásitos jugadores popularcapitalistas y sus ganchos, convertidos en vulnerabilidades para el sistema capitalista (materia de servicios de inteligencia), intentan denodadamente que las mayorías naturales electorales confundan las naciones con el escalón intermedio en el diseño del sector público administrativo ^*; y consiguen victorias en votaciones que recrudecen el cumplimiento irremediable del ortograma capitalista (bréxit-2016, Trump-2017, 'procés'-2017, Ayuso-2019, Milei-2023).

«Pobreticos ucranianos», «pobreticos palestinos». Pero ni Ucrania ni Palestina son naciones canónicas. Solo están en distintas fases de supuestos procesos para intentar serlo.

En esta tesitura, el ortograma imperial vigente en Europa y Occidente (América y Oceanía) dicta la conveniencia de guerras periféricas para:
• dar holgura al inexorable trance de la estructura económica, tanto por motivos keynesianos (demanda agregada), como monetaristas (inflación), el 'pendant' ideológico que la sustenta; y
• maximizar el control social, toda vez que se trata de un cambio de modelo que irrita a las mayorías naturales electorales, presas de los juegos de dinero-sin-trabajar propios del modelo popularcapitalista de los 1980, especialmente El Ladrillo (Dios quiera que nunca prospere El Bitcóin, verdadera filatelia financiera 'geek').

Añádase que la transición de modelo viene conjugada con una crisis energética mucho más profunda de lo que los parásitos jugadores creen. Está causada por el proceso de agotamiento físico terrenal de los recursos convencionales de combustibles fósiles —petróleo y gas—. Y se da la circunstancia, ¡oh!, de que las dos operaciones militares especiales de referencia son intervenciones directas en esta materia.

Las tropas francesas en el campo de batalla ucraniano a modo de chivo expiatorio, el abandono de la población de Gaza, el ascenso electoral de Trump, el apoyo interno a Ayuso en la revelación de su fealdad residencial, etcétera son parte de la 'mise-en-scène" (puesta en escena) de la llegada de la 'política de operaciones especiales' a su completitud y la retirada del imperio anglo a sus cuarteles de invierno para rumiar la suelta del nuevo modelo, del nuevo marco energético y de la nueva geopolítica 'pospopcap' (pospopularcapitalista) centrada en la administración de la emergencia 'brics+'.

Todo encaja.

Por lo que respecta a España, se confunde la actividad del presidente del Gobierno español con sus responsabilidades como presidente de la Internacional Socialista. Se emiten opiniones como si esta esta segunda condición no existiera, siendo más importante que la primera, especialmente en las relaciones del imperio anglo con el mundo árabe.

La opinión en España está demasiado anclada a la ecuación de intereses del propietariado, donde se han hecho fuertes los intereses de los menos de 18.000 trabajadores-directivos de empresa superasalariados que hay. Debiera estar profundizándose en «la solución del campeón nacional», que tiene dos caras: campeón y nacional. Tiene que ser una sola entidad de gestión de activos procedentes de la inminente reestructuración inmobiliaria; pero tiene que ser, también, genuinamente nacional, lo que implica liquidar toda posición que tenga cualquier inversor que no sea de la UE. El paso previo, obviamente, es una devaluación inmobiliaria no gradual, que pudiera venir de Francia, más que de EEUU —no hay modo de que pudiera ser endógena, que sería lo ideal—.

___
^* El diseño del sector público administrativo es una cuestión técnica. La función crea al órgano. Siempre hay cinco escalones administrativos concurrentes en cada metro cuadrado de la Tierra y los cinco son 'el nuestro', en términos nacionales: local, regional, estatal, supraestatal y mundial. ¿Acaso el euro no es tu moneda?

[JENOFONTE10]

[He aquí un artículo de un magistrado, difundido por el Centro de Investigaciones Judiciales del Poder Judicial con ocasión de la semana santa de 2012:
http://www.andujarmoreno.com/pdf/juiciodejesus/jesus_sedicioso.pdf]

Conclusión final del artículo del magistrado Andújar, pg. 8:

Jesús, un hebreo de pobre cuna, al haberse autoproclamado como "Rey de los Judíos",
asumiendo por cuenta propia el más alto cargo político en una zona tradicionalmente
convulsionada, colisionó directamente contra el único y verdadero poder en la tierra:
Roma. Por ello fue crucificado bajo el cargo de seditiosus y ello se corrobora por la pena
romana de crucifixión y del titulus que en son de mofa rezaba sobre su cabeza: "Jesús de
Nazareth Rey de los Judíos", cuyo acróstico es INRI.

¿Es 'autoproclamado' (Rey de los judíos) lo mismo que 'pretendiendo ser' (el rey Mesias)?:

Después se levantó toda la asamblea y lo llevaron ante Pilato.
Y comenzaron a acusarlo, diciendo: «Hemos encontrado a este hombre incitando a nuestro pueblo a la rebelión, impidiéndole pagar los impuestos al Emperador y pretendiendo ser el rey Mesías». [Lucas 23]

Pilato lo interrogó, diciendo: «¿Eres tú el rey de los judíos?». «Tú lo dices» le respondió Jesús.
Pilato dijo a los sumos sacerdotes y a la multitud: «No encuentro en este hombre ningún motivo de condena». [Lucas 23]

Ante la insistencia de la autoridad religiosa judía acusando a Jesús y reclamando su crucifixión,  Pilato:

Por tercera vez les dijo: «¿Qué mal ha hecho este hombre? No encuentro en él nada que merezca la muerte. Después de darle un escarmiento, lo dejaré en libertad». [Lucas 23, 22]

Pilato fracasa en su intento de salvar a Jesús de sus acusadores religiosos judíos, gestores del Templo de Jerusalén. Tras la condena ¿quién solicita reescribir el 'titulus' (INRI)?, y ¿quién lo deniega?:

Pilato redactó una inscripción que decía: "Jesús el Nazareno, rey de los judíos", y la hizo poner sobre la cruz.
Muchos judíos leyeron esta inscripción, porque el lugar donde Jesús fue crucificado quedaba cerca de la ciudad y la inscripción estaba en hebreo, latín y griego.
Los sumos sacerdotes de los judíos dijeron a Pilato: « No escribas: "El rey de los judíos" sino: "Este ha dicho: Yo soy el rey de los judíos"».
Pilato respondió: «Lo escrito, escrito está». [Juan 19, 19-22]

La Providencia remacha hoy en Misa, por boca de San Pedro:

04/04/2024 – Jueves de la Octava de Pascua.
Lectura del libro de los Hechos de los Apóstoles 3, 11-26.

En aquellos días, mientras el paralítico curado seguía aún con Pedro y Juan, todo el pueblo, asombrado, acudió corriendo al pórtico de Salomón, donde estaban ellos. Al verlo, Pedro dirigió la palabra a la gente:

«Israelitas, ¿por qué os admiráis de esto? ¿Por qué nos miráis como si hubiéramos hecho andar a este con nuestro propio poder o virtud? El Dios de Abrahán, de Isaac y de Jacob, el Dios de nuestros padres, ha glorificado a su siervo Jesús, al que vosotros entregasteis y de quien renegasteis ante Pilato, cuando había decidido soltarlo.

Vosotros renegasteis del Santo y del Justo, y pedisteis el indulto de un asesino; matasteis al autor de la vida, pero Dios lo resucitó de entre los muertos, y nosotros somos testigos de ello.
[...]
Palabra de Dios.

________________

[¿Por qué no podría haber habido textos (en la época, rollos) de Jesús, ya incluso durante su vida, no escritos por evangelistas? ¿Por qué estos no habrían tenido acceso a los mismos?]

Podría haber habido textos.
Podrían haber tenido acceso.
No necesito suponerlo, ya que confío en los evangelios canónicos, recibidos tras una larga tradición.

Saludos.

[Derby]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/personalfinance/banks-are-extending-office-loans-are-they-also-pretending/ar-BB1l4tLT

https://www.wsj.com/articles/banks-are-extending-office-loans-are-they-also-pretending-f62ddd80

Banks Are Extending Office Loans. Are They Also Pretending?

The looming “maturity wall” for commercial real-estate loans coming due has been moved back, but it has also gotten taller.

Banks’ commercial real-estate loans are now growing at an accelerating rate. In the first quarter of 2024 they grew sequentially 1.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to Federal Reserve data. This ended a slowdown in growth last year, which had fallen to 0.3% in the fourth quarter.

Investors have been bracing for waves of loan maturities in commercial real estate, which could force a lot of tough choices about whether to restructure or write off mortgages to landlords struggling with occupancy and rental rates.

But it didn’t quite play out as expected last year. MSCI Real Assets noted in a recent report that $214 billion in mortgages slated for maturity in 2023 were, to their knowledge, not refinanced, nor was there a sale of the underlying property. “We believe that these loans have been granted some short-term extension to their maturity date,” MSCI Real Assets wrote.

For banks, this phenomenon—which critics often dub “extend and pretend”—has added significantly to 2024 maturities. PGIM Real Estate, part of Prudential Financial’s asset- management business, in a recent report noted that banks’ expected 2024 commercial real-estate maturities rose 35% from previous estimates.

So for now, despite a sharp slowdown in new commercial mortgage deals being originated last year, longer-lingering loans and prior obligations to lend to projects as they move forward are sustaining banks’ lending volumes.

“Existing commitments keep funding up, and maturing loans have nowhere to go,” wrote Autonomous Research analysts in a recent report. They estimated that about 40% of banks’ CRE loans maturing this year are actually ones that were supposed to mature in 2023.

This is a good news-bad news situation. On the one hand, loans aren’t being written off and losses crystallized. But they also aren’t being paid off and resolved. The issue lingers and forces investors to keep making calls about whether the loans will ultimately perform as banks are anticipating.

Large banks tracked by Autonomous have, at last report, set aside loan-loss reserves for their office portfolios worth about 8% of those loans. That is roughly five times the median overall allowance level across all loans.

How much cushion investors demand will play a major role in whether bank stocks can keep pushing ahead after the KBW Nasdaq Bank Index’s 8% rally in March. Yet investors don’t have much to go on. When it comes to commercial mortgages, trouble doesn’t necessarily manifest in the form of missed payments. Many CRE loans are often structured with “balloon” payments, where most of the principal is due at maturity.

In fact, the rate of delinquencies on banks’ CRE loans had risen to just 1.2% as of the fourth quarter of 2023—still a fraction of the 8%-plus rate touched in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, according to Fed data.

Instead, a key way that banks work through them is to refinance them with new loans when they are due, or when property developers seek out permanent financing from another lender, often a nonbank.

So, as unsatisfying as it may be, pushing out maturities can be the right answer. For one, interest rates are set to fall, which may bring some relief for landlords struggling to raise rents sufficiently to pay for mortgages at today’s high rates.

Plus, it appears that discount-seeking buyers and lenders seeking to jump on opportunities may soon be ready to step up. PGIM Real Estate in its report wrote that there could be an “increasing role for alternative lenders.” This would especially be the case if banks need to be more mindful of their capital and risk levels as new rules come into play.

The waiting game is no fun for investors. But it might just be banks’ best move for now.

[Derby]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/california-house-prices-plunge-by-as-much-as-40-in-some-areas/ar-BB1l3MGT

California House Prices Plunge By as Much as 40% in Some Areas

Homeowners in parts of California are slashing the price of their properties by as much as 40 percent as they leave behind the explosive home appreciation that characterized the pandemic years.

A five-bedroom home in Oakland, California, that was listed for sale for $4.1 million in March 2022 is now once again available on real-estate marketplace Redfin for $2,550,000 after experiencing a price cut of more than 40 percent.

"Oof," wrote San Francisco Bay Area realtor Matt Castillo, who first spotted the listing, on X, formerly known as Twitter. "This house was sold in Oakland in March 2022 for 4.1M. Now it has been on the market [for] over 60 days and just had a price cut from 3M to 2.55M."



The property's listing says the Oakland home had been listed in February 2022 for $2,995,000 before being sold for more than $4 million, less than a month later. Castillo thinks the buyer "got caught up in the hype of the red hot market (pre-interest rate hike) and paid 1.1 million over asking [price]," he wrote on X. "Now Oakland is having a moment and interest rates are high."

The "moment" that Oakland is living through is a difficult one. The city has seen several major retailers shutting down their stores in the city. They mentioned a rise in retail theft and other crime, which they said threatens the safety of both their customers and staff members.

The Redfin listing also shows that the property tax on the home has skyrocketed in the past couple of years, rising by 125.3 percent between 2022 and 2023, and going from $26,319 to $59,307.

The price reduction on the five-bedroom home is not an isolated case, but it is representative of the whole area the property is located in. Journalist Lance Lambert wrote on X that home prices in Oakland's 94610 ZIP code are down 16.7 percent from their 2022 peak. Newsweek contacted Lambert for comment by email on Thursday morning.

Most of Northern California, according to a map based on Zillow data shared by Lambert on ResiClub, still have homes for sale for a price below their 2022 peak, even as the rest of the state—and especially Southern California—has seen prices climb back in the past year. Lambert says these local markets—including San Francisco and Oakland—are still suffering the impact of the recent tech sector's troubles, including trying to adjust to the rise of artificial intelligence (AI).

The following ZIP codes saw prices plunge by 15 percent and lower between February 2023 and 2024: 96041, Hayfork (-16.1 percent); 95526, Bridgeville (-18.7 percent); 95528, Carlotta (-15.6 percent); 95542, Redway (-16.1 percent); 95428, Covelo (-15.1 percent); 95454, Laytonville (-15.5 percent); 92347, Hinkley (-20.4 percent); 92242, Earp (-20.9 percent).

However, despite recent price cuts, home prices in California—including Oakland—remain historically high.

As of February 29, the average California home value was $765,197, according to Zillow, up 5.4 percent over the past year. Prices in the Golden State were more than twice as high as prices at the national level, where the average home value was $347,716, up 3.6 percent year-over-year.

Despite a modest fall during the so-called correction of late summer 2022 and spring 2023, home prices in California are now almost as high as they were during their peak in July 2022, when they reached an average of $769,345.

The bouncing back of home prices is mainly due to the fact that the state is still suffering from a historic supply shortage that is impacting the entire country. However, it is felt particularly strongly in California, where strict regulation presents an obstacle to the construction of new properties.

"By our estimate, there were approximately 217,000 total housing units started in Texas over 2023, 26,000 started in New York, and 106,000 started in California," Matthew Walsh, Moody's Analytics housing economist, previously told Newsweek.

The five-bedroom home in Oakland, even with the latest price reduction, was still priced 45.7 percent above its November 2020 sale price of $1.75 million.

[sudden and sharp]

[He aquí un artículo de un magistrado, difundido por el Centro de Investigaciones Judiciales del Poder Judicial con ocasión de la semana santa de 2012:
http://www.andujarmoreno.com/pdf/juiciodejesus/jesus_sedicioso.pdf]

Conclusión final del artículo del magistrado Andújar, pg. 8:

Jesús, un hebreo de pobre cuna, al haberse autoproclamado como "Rey de los Judíos",
asumiendo por cuenta propia el más alto cargo político en una zona tradicionalmente
convulsionada, colisionó directamente contra el único y verdadero poder en la tierra:
Roma. Por ello fue crucificado bajo el cargo de seditiosus y ello se corrobora por la pena
romana de crucifixión y del titulus que en son de mofa rezaba sobre su cabeza: "Jesús de
Nazareth Rey de los Judíos", cuyo acróstico es INRI.

¿Es 'autoproclamado' (Rey de los judíos) lo mismo que 'pretendiendo ser' (el rey Mesias)?:

Después se levantó toda la asamblea y lo llevaron ante Pilato.
Y comenzaron a acusarlo, diciendo: «Hemos encontrado a este hombre incitando a nuestro pueblo a la rebelión, impidiéndole pagar los impuestos al Emperador y pretendiendo ser el rey Mesías». [Lucas 23]

Pilato lo interrogó, diciendo: «¿Eres tú el rey de los judíos?». «Tú lo dices» le respondió Jesús.
Pilato dijo a los sumos sacerdotes y a la multitud: «No encuentro en este hombre ningún motivo de condena». [Lucas 23]

Ante la insistencia de la autoridad religiosa judía acusando a Jesús y reclamando su crucifixión,  Pilato:

Por tercera vez les dijo: «¿Qué mal ha hecho este hombre? No encuentro en él nada que merezca la muerte. Después de darle un escarmiento, lo dejaré en libertad». [Lucas 23, 22]

Pilato fracasa en su intento de salvar a Jesús de sus acusadores religiosos judíos, gestores del Templo de Jerusalén. Tras la condena ¿quién solicita reescribir el 'titulus' (INRI)?, y ¿quién lo deniega?:

Pilato redactó una inscripción que decía: "Jesús el Nazareno, rey de los judíos", y la hizo poner sobre la cruz.
Muchos judíos leyeron esta inscripción, porque el lugar donde Jesús fue crucificado quedaba cerca de la ciudad y la inscripción estaba en hebreo, latín y griego.
Los sumos sacerdotes de los judíos dijeron a Pilato: « No escribas: "El rey de los judíos" sino: "Este ha dicho: Yo soy el rey de los judíos"».
Pilato respondió: «Lo escrito, escrito está». [Juan 19, 19-22]

La Providencia remacha hoy en Misa, por boca de San Pedro:

04/04/2024 – Jueves de la Octava de Pascua.
Lectura del libro de los Hechos de los Apóstoles 3, 11-26.

En aquellos días, mientras el paralítico curado seguía aún con Pedro y Juan, todo el pueblo, asombrado, acudió corriendo al pórtico de Salomón, donde estaban ellos. Al verlo, Pedro dirigió la palabra a la gente:

«Israelitas, ¿por qué os admiráis de esto? ¿Por qué nos miráis como si hubiéramos hecho andar a este con nuestro propio poder o virtud? El Dios de Abrahán, de Isaac y de Jacob, el Dios de nuestros padres, ha glorificado a su siervo Jesús, al que vosotros entregasteis y de quien renegasteis ante Pilato, cuando había decidido soltarlo.

Vosotros renegasteis del Santo y del Justo, y pedisteis el indulto de un asesino; matasteis al autor de la vida, pero Dios lo resucitó de entre los muertos, y nosotros somos testigos de ello.
[...]
Palabra de Dios.

________________

[¿Por qué no podría haber habido textos (en la época, rollos) de Jesús, ya incluso durante su vida, no escritos por evangelistas? ¿Por qué estos no habrían tenido acceso a los mismos?]

Podría haber habido textos.
Podrían haber tenido acceso.
No necesito suponerlo, ya que confío en los evangelios canónicos, recibidos tras una larga tradición.

Saludos.

Y por que rima... ¿qué se yo?

¿Donde está la verdad? decía Pilatos... Claro ¿A quién le importa la verdad?   La Verdad(tm) no le importa a nadie, ni le debe importar a nadie. Lo importante es la vida... la vida de la gente. Todos tenemos claro cuál es el "mensaje" que vale la pena. (Y no las actas judiciales...)





A ver si nos centramos, conyo.   

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/abe51c7f-39f1-4aca-b5b6-3a00f2cd2cc9

Gucci owner Kering buys Milan building for €1.3bn in Europe’s biggest property deal since 2022

Purchase of Via Monte Napoleone 8 from Blackstone comes as luxury groups compete for desirable locations


The sale of Via Monte Napoleone 8, which houses a Prada store, is the largest-ever single asset real estate sale by Blackstone in Europe © Blanca Saenz de Castillo/Alamy

Gucci owner Kering has bought a retail block on Milan’s top shopping street from Blackstone for €1.3bn in Europe’s biggest property deals for two years, as intense demand from luxury groups helps high-end retail real estate defy the wider downturn.

The sale of Via Monte Napoleone 8, a building that houses Kering’s Saint Laurent store, as well as Prada and the LVMH-owned Cafe Cova, marks the largest-ever single asset real estate sale by Blackstone in Europe.

It is also the latest in a series of large real estate purchases by luxury fashion houses seeking to lock down flagship locations in key global cities.

The race to control these sites has made luxury retail properties one of the niches where large deals are still being done, at a time when high borrowing costs and uncertainty over the wider market have depressed global real estate deal volumes by more than half and made big ticket sales a rarity.

Kering said on Thursday that the investment was part of a “selective real estate strategy, aimed at securing key highly desirable locations for its houses”.

The luxury group in January announced the $963mn purchase of a building at the corner of Fifth Avenue and 56th Street in New York, adding to a portfolio of flagship assets in other cities including Paris and Tokyo.

Kering and its larger rival LVMH were the buyers in three of Europe’s largest five property sales last year, according to MSCI, with LVMH’s roughly €1bn purchase from investment firm Brookfield on the Champs-Élysées in Paris topping the list. Prada in December agreed a $425mn purchase of its New York flagship store.

The Milan deal is the largest single property sale in Europe since March 2022, said MSCI. Via Monte Napoleone commands the second-highest rent of any shopping street in the world, after Fifth Avenue in New York, according to advisers Cushman & Wakefield.

Blackstone bought the Milan property as part of its 2021 acquisition of Reale Compagnia Italiana, a private Italian firm that also owned offices, hotels and residential properties in the city.

The US firm, which is the world’s largest owner of commercial real estate, paid about €1.1bn for the whole portfolio. It has managed the property with its partner Kryalos, an Italian real estate firm.

James Seppala, head of European real estate at Blackstone, said the deal “demonstrates exceptional investor demand for high-quality real estate in the strongest markets”.

All the luxury groups are “really running to get the best locations”, said a banker in Milan. “It will become even more a game for the big, big boys, because you need to have firepower in order to buy. It’s going to continue . . . and make the difference even more clear between those that can and those that cannot compete.”

Blackstone has also recently moved to add to its own luxury retail holdings. It is in talks to buy a £230mn property on London’s New Bond Street.

Kering recently issued a profit warning, a rarity in the luxury sector, saying it expected sales at Gucci — which accounts for half of group sales and two-thirds of earnings — to decline 20 per cent in the first quarter led by weakening demand in China, its key market.

Efforts at Gucci to turn around its business under new designer Sabato de Sarno as well as new management after several years of declining sales have yet to bear fruit.

However the company had €2bn in free cash flow from operations last year, and the group views the purchase of key real estate assets as part of its long-term strategy.

“We devoted a large part of 2023 to making investments — whether through spending, our investments in stores and in real estate — to strengthen the exclusivity and elevation of our brands,” Kering’s deputy chief executive Jean-Marc Duplaix said earlier this year.

“We will continue these investments, and it will have a short-term impact on our results, but in order to nourish the long-term development of our brands.”

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/abe821d6-9956-4f0f-a665-344154e9b287

Kering’s €1.3bn real estate bet is a pricey distraction

Buying property is not the smartest use of luxury cash flows

(...) The Milan building is by no means Kering’s only new project. Over the past two years it has bought real estate in Paris and New York, fragrance house Creed, sunglass maker Maui Jim and a stake in Valentino — for a total investment of perhaps €10bn. That is a big push for a group that generates €4.5bn of cash flow a year.

It also means Kering has a lot on the go. That is not a comfort given the dismal performance at its key Gucci brand, which recently warned on profits. Given Gucci accounts for around half of Kering’s sales, the stock’s performance depends on turning it around. Glitzy distractions, real estate or otherwise, should be eschewed.

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-04/private-credit-offers-no-extra-gains-after-fees-new-study-finds

Private Credit Offers No Extra Gains After Fees, New Study Finds

*NBER paper finds little alpha for investors in overall returns
*It’s hard to find the right benchmark for private-market funds

A trio of academics has a bold take on the booming $1.7 trillion private credit market: after accounting for additional risks and fees, the asset class delivers virtually no extra return to investors.

In a new study released by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the professors argued that direct lenders on the whole hardly produce any alpha — or extra compensation over broad market benchmarks.

That conclusion is sure to be controversial in a market that has more than doubled in size over the past five years thanks to the allure of higher and steadier returns compared to publicly traded debt.

“It’s not a panacea for investors where they can earn 15% risk-free,” said Michael Weisbach, a finance professor at Ohio State University who co-wrote the research with Isil Erel and Thomas Flanagan. “Once you adjust for the risk, they basically are getting the amount they deserve, but no more.”

Behind the research is complex math to try to untangle the alpha part of a return that’s down to skill, and the beta part that might just come from stumbling into a bull market. While comparing stock pickers to a market benchmark like the S&P 500 is standard by now, it’s not obvious what the right yardstick is for private-credit funds, which make idiosyncratic and opaque loans to a wide array of companies.



To be clear, the study covers broad industry returns rather than any particular fund, and Weisbach is quick to add the asset class could still be a welcome source of diversification as long as investors can tolerate its lower liquidity.

The three economists dissected MSCI data on 532 funds’ cash flows, covering their incoming capital and distributions to investors. They compare the industry’s performance to stock and credit portfolios with similar characteristics, whose fluctuations end up explaining the majority of private-credit returns. The study makes the case that these private credit funds also carry some equity risk, since around 20% of their investments contain equity-like features such as warrants.

After accounting for those risks, they find that there’s still alpha left on the table — which only vanishes once fees paid to these managers are deducted.

“It really is the first attempt to my knowledge of trying to look at private credit using both credit and equity benchmarks,” said Tobias True, a partner at Adams Street Partners who applies data analytics to building private portfolios. “There is so much variety and diversity in the loan structures with the equity components and different levels of leverage. That’s what really makes it challenging for us to separate alpha and beta.”

The paper’s conclusion might resonate with some investors, or limited partners, who are starting to question the hefty costs as interest rates rise and competition for their dollars intensifies. Meanwhile, default risks are also rising as tighter monetary policy squeezes corporate borrowers. With fund-raising now slowing after a few years of rapid growth, some private credit funds have started to waive fees to key investors.

As private markets boom, some quants — most notably Cliff Asness of AQR Capital Management — have suggested that investors are being misguided by returns that mask volatility and may be less impressive than they appear.

True at Adams Street Partners, who co-wrote one of the first papers on private-credit performance, cautions that until the industry faces its first downturn it may be hard to determine real alpha. But he says the NBER study is a good step toward digging beneath the surface of private-credit returns.

“It’s not going to give anyone a magic formula where they can go in and say, you haven’t delivered any alpha,” he said. “Maybe it just raises awareness that there’s additional risk and the excess performance wasn’t really worth it in some cases.”

[Derby]

https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2024/0402

Lower interest rates don’t necessarily improve housing affordability

The benchmark 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increased from around 3 percent in December 2021 to nearly 7 percent two years later, a result of the Fed’s rapid monetary tightening.

As homebuyers faced sharply rising mortgage payments, questions followed about housing affordability. According to the National Association of Realtors, housing affordability declined almost 30 percent since December 2021, close to levels last seen in the late 1980s (Chart 1).



The direct impact of higher mortgage rates on housing affordability has received much attention. We emphasize that housing affordability not only depends on mortgage rates but also on house prices, which have competing effects. For example, when interest rates increase, house prices tend to decline. We present decompositions of housing affordability, showing the relative importance of the two competing effects matters, and lower interest rates do not necessarily improve housing affordability.

(...) Chart 4 shows the actual HAI, the counterfactual HAI using this estimate and the naive counterfactual HAI without considering the effect of the lower rate on house prices. The rate increase worsens housing affordability. However, in the absence of rate hikes, affordability would have still declined after 2022.



(...)Changes in monetary policy directly affect mortgage rates, but there is also an indirect effect on house prices. When monetary policy is easier, mortgage rates tend to fall, while house prices tend to rise due to higher demand. These opposing channels imply that the net effect on affordability is ambiguous and potentially the opposite of what intuition based solely on mortgage rates would suggest.

[Derby]

https://twitter.com/dfuentescastro/status/1775932178485989701

[Derby]

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-euro-indicators/w/2-04042024-bp



https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/w/ddn-20240404-1

[CHOSEN]

Me gustaría que por favor, echaseis unos minutos en ver este vídeo.
En él el prof.Jesús Maestro expone unas ideas muy interesantes.
No dedica mucho tiempo a Gustavo Bueno tranquilos, pero hace unas reflexiones muy acertadas sobre la democracia y la degeneración evidente a la que asistimos.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMdOGVhy5Xw



En 15 años debe ser el primer vídeo que posteo.
Si no mereciera la pena no lo pondría.

[sudden and sharp]

Me gustaría que por favor, echaseis unos minutos en ver este vídeo.
En él el prof.Jesús Maestro expone unas ideas muy interesantes.
No dedica mucho tiempo a Gustavo Bueno tranquilos, pero hace unas reflexiones muy acertadas sobre la democracia y la degeneración evidente a la que asistimos.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMdOGVhy5Xw



En 15 años debe ser el primer vídeo que posteo.
Si no mereciera la pena no lo pondría.

Le he dado al PAUSE a los dos minutos... No para abandonar.





Me llamó la atención lo de "esta es la conclusión a la que vamos a llegar.,..". (Será él...    Yo llegaré a lo que me de la gana. --Sí, ya he "adquirido" mi ejemplar... en mi proveedor habitual.)






------
[ No molesto más... pero los "concetos" claros porfi. ]

[sudden and sharp]

Min 3:30. La Democracia es el sistema que las élites  dan al pueblo para responsabilizarlo de sus propios errores. (de los errores de las élites, se dedebe entender.)








Si no le gusta el Conocimiento, pruebe usted con la Ignorancia... [ No hay más preguntas, podría decir. Ya, claro, pruebe usted con el medievo de Putin... o similares. La democracia, y esto no es mío, es el peor de los sistema posibles... y ojo, de entre los que se "conocen", y a excepción de todos los demás (bien conocidos.)

Siempre cabe la posibilidad de uno "nuevo", claro. Pero, de momento: [iVirgencita][/i]...




Ahora sí que abandono.




PARA LOS QUE DUDEN SI PINCHAR O NO: No es la tésis de Bueno, sino la interpretación que hace del libro este señor. (Decidan ustedes mismos. )]