PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Primavera 2024

[el malo]

The writing is on the wall...


Ayer mismo: Va a ser obligatorio renovar el 60% de los ascensores de la UE. Estamos tan en respiración asistida que la actividad económica es por decreto. Inventamos PIB obligando y por decreto. Donde no hay mata...

Creo que comenté por aquí una anécdota de la anterior crisis (y si no, la comento ahora). Uno de los comensales en una mesa muy diversa era un alto cargo de una de las empresas de ascensores más importantes del mundo. Después de la comida, con las copas, me acerco y nos ponemos a hablar. Le pregunto que cómo veía la cosa después del estallido de la burbuja en España y me respondió con toda tranquilidad que no había problema, que para eso estaba el gobierno 

Me dijo (palabras casi textuales) "mira, de vez en cuando los grandes fabricantes presentamos nuestras propuestas de mejora y seguridad. Por ejemplo, un botón de llamada que conecte con la central en caso de que alguien se quede atrapado dentro. Después nos reunimos con el Ministro del ramo que toque y a los 6 meses tenemos normativa nueva (y miles de ascensores por toda España que actualizar)."

[sargento.algodon]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-29/ecb-to-impose-first-ever-fines-on-banks-for-climate-failures

ECB to Impose First-Ever Fines on Banks for Climate Failures

Several lenders didn’t progress enough on risk assessment
Fines per day can technically be up to 5% of daily revenue

The European Central Bank is set to take the unprecedented step of imposing fines on several lenders for their protracted failure to address the impact of climate change.

As many as four lenders face penalties after not meeting deadlines set by the ECB for assessing their exposure to climate risks, according to people familiar with the matter. The amounts aren’t final yet and may be largely symbolic, the people said, who asked not to be named as the move isn’t public.

A spokeswoman for the ECB, which directly oversees more than 100 banks, declined to comment.

The imposition of fines still marks an unusually harsh step toward forcing banks to comply with the ECB’s views on how they should manage climate risks. The move comes after years of pressure, with former banking supervision head Andrea Enria stating in a September interview with Bloomberg that the ECB would resort to such sanctions as an alternative to higher capital requirements.

The fines rack up every day and can amount to as much as 5% of a lender’s daily average revenue. For a bank with annual revenue of €10 billion ($10.9 billion), for example, that would suggest daily penalties of as much as €1.4 million in the toughest scenario, although the actual fines imposed may be much smaller.

The banks singled out for penalties are now accruing daily fines for as long as the deficiencies persist, the people said. Mitigating factors may be taken into account as well, meaning some fines could be reduced or even negated, said one of the people.

The ECB has repeatedly warned that lenders aren’t doing enough to prepare for the fallout of extreme weather shocks on asset values, or the risk that clients with big carbon footprints might go out of business. The watchdog has said it initially threatened 18 banks with penalties, implying that ECB pressure is leading to results for most firms.

European regulations require banks to assess whether they are — or will be — exposed to material risks, and that they reflect that in their capital reserves. The ECB has said lenders typically need to understand all the relevant drivers of climate and environmental-related risk and how these are affected given their exposures.

The rigor with which the ECB is pushing banks to manage their climate risk stands in contrast to the approach taken by the Federal Reserve, with Chairman Jerome Powell saying the Fed has “narrow, but important, responsibilities regarding climate-related financial risks.” Banks in Europe have warned that the schism in regulatory environments risks putting them at a competitive disadvantage to their US peers.

Frank Elderson, a member of the ECB’s Executive Board, has shown little inclination to slow down European efforts on climate. In a May 8 blog post, he wrote that “a materiality assessment is not just a ‘nice to have’ — knowing your risks is a precondition for being able to address them.”

While some banks have started to set aside capital to cover climate-related risks and improved their risk management, Elderson listed several deficiencies, including:

*Not considering all relevant risk categories

*Focusing only on transitional risks and omitting physical risks, or only looking at a subset of geographic regions

*Using a net approach rather than gross to identify risks, undermining banks’ ability to measure actual impact and plan for mitigation

¿Multas porque llueva (o no)?

[Elcasco]

https://x.com/marcopabst/status/1795747498436268453

🚨 The German property crash is beginning to crystallise

German property transaction volumes have been sluggish since interest rates started to inflect higher in late 2021.

However, whilst overall volumes in April of this year were weak, a significant increase in insolvency-related transactions is noteworthy.
🧵1/4

💥 Year-to-date, a record EUR1.6bn of distressed sales have already been recorded, according to Savills, making up 24% of overall transaction volumes - a new record.

This, of course, is as much a reflection of a spike in foreclosure sales as it is the result of lacklustre overall transaction activity in the German market.

The spike is somewhat explained by several large transactions, amongst them the sale of Berlin's KaDeWe luxury department store out of the Signa insolvency to Central Group.

😳 It is very likely that distress-related transaction volumes will remain high for some time for several reasons:
(1) non-performing property-related loans at banks have increased 2.5x to EUR14bn,
(2) open-ended real estate funds saw almost EUR2bn in redemptions since August of last year and
(3) over the next 2 1/2 years, EUR25bn of bonds issued by real estate companies will mature, many of which need to be refinanced.

📉 Property prices in Germany are still declining: multi-family homes are now down 30% from their mid-2022 peak. Apartments were hit less and lost 14.5% over the last two years. Commercial real estate across its various categories is also down in the high-teens from peak.

🎉 The good news: rental yields have increased across all segments and are now back to levels last seen in 2013/14.

[asustadísimos]

[Al hilo del artículo que trae senslev (https://www.transicionestructural.net/index.php?topic=2604.msg229249#msg229249), si desde las 8:00 a las 12:00 trabajas para tu parásito rentista inmobiliario, quiere decir, que en cómputo anual, EL DÍA DE LIBERACIÓN DEL PARASITISMO INMOBILIARIO ES LOS 30 DE JUNIO.]


[Cadavre Esquis trae dos noticias importantes del –60%:
• https://www.transicionestructural.net/index.php?topic=2604.msg229231#msg229231
Villar Mir vende su inmobiliaria (a Aedas), que 'vale' 100, por 40.
• https://www.transicionestructural.net/index.php?topic=2604.msg229228#msg229228
https://i.imgur.com/ROOUEl2.jpeg
Oportunidad en el ladrillo en España.
Aunque se trata de un publirreportaje de Neinor en el diario británico 'Financial Times' (nada menos que en la 'Lex Column'): https://www.ft.com/content/d764f36a-74c9-48b6-bb7f-e110497a0f3b), la noticia sería que la propia Neinor, y Metrovacesa y Aedas, cotizan en Bolsa por debajo de sus valores contable y de mercado; de modo que, si aplicamos a las tres sociedades la lógica de la operación de Villar Mir con Aedas, estaríamos ante una oportunidad de entrar a –60% en el gran juego popularcapitalista de dinero-sin-trabajar, dado que los españoles 'gozan' de un formidable y perenne «dysfunctional housing market», que solo de vez en cuando ofrece «opportunities» como la presente. En particular, habría, pues, una divergencia entre la Bolsa y los jugosos precios de mercado de los pisitos —que, según ellos, ya habrían recuperado el nivel de mediados de los 2000, lo que es mentira—; una divergencia de tal magnitud que, ¡pelillos a la mar!, da igual que en los últimos años estas sociedades hayan repartido dividendos no con cargo a alquileres —que es lo suyo—, sino a una cosa que llaman «optimización de reservas», ja, ja, ja, amparada por la revalorización contable mágica del suelo. En suma, que tú, si no eres tonto, tienes que comprar una mierda bursátil que ya no tiene el 'capital capitalista' que tenía hace un lustro o más, porque tienes por ganar un potosí, dado lo mierda que es todo en España (y va a seguir siéndolo —y que siga siéndolo es fundamental—).

Por circunstancias personales y profesionales, estoy vinculado a Pasajes (Guipúzcoa). Tras el 'bréxit' y 'Nord Stream', como español y europeo, cada vez que veo estas cerdadas anglo me viene a la mente esto:

BRICS+ y BCE enguachinan a la FED su puerca política monetario-cambiaria de imperio crematocrático.

Fangio, que era mecánico, dijo que «la mejor avería de un coche es pasada la línea de meta». Lo que tienen que hacer los jugadores de dinero-sin-trabajar es comprar mucho papelito español justo antes de la bandera de cuadros. De esto es de lo que, de verdad, se hace eco el FT. Por ello es un magnífico indicador anticipado del Hostión-2025.]

[asustadísimos]

[Sudden and sharp, perdona por haberte borrado el comentario que has leído. Ha sido para mejorarlo sustancialmente.]

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/c67bcd76-309b-47d4-9352-e06f4b92156c#post-3476fac3-eace-4a7b-bc8f-e193a18cbbdf

Eurozone unemployment falls to lowest level since 1999

Eurozone unemployment dropped further in April, falling by 0.1 percentage points as a strong jobs market took the rate to its lowest level since the formation of the currency bloc in 1999. 

The euro area’s seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate fell to 6.4 per cent, with just under 11mn people unemployed, according to data from Eurostat, the EU’s statistics agency, on Thursday. This was down from 6.5 per cent in March.

Across the wider EU region the figure was 6 per cent, amounting to 13.1mn people, a reading that remained flat on the previous month.

[el malo]

Carta interna: Siemens Energy quiere eliminar 4.100 puestos de trabajo en Gamesa

https://www.wiwo.de/unternehmen/industrie/gamesa-internes-schreiben-siemens-energy-will-4100-jobs-bei-gamesa-streichen/29822482.html

https://beamspot.substack.com/p/bateriasque-baterias

En este caso, un monotemático sobre el tema de “Baterías” y de cómo NO son ninguna solución.

Por otra parte, no puedo “acusar” a los tecnooptimistas de no dar información y no darla yo tampoco.

Que quede claro, que precisamente empecé por pedírsela “a los expertos”. Deformación profesional. No me han dado nada más que largas, cosa sospechosa.

Pero yo trabajo o he trabajado de eso, así me he liado la cabeza a la manta, y por aquí he empezado.

Hay más: esto es sólo una parte de un planteamiento de “solución” al problema de la intermitencia y de sus implicaciones

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/amp/12839195/crisis-energetica-en-argentina-el-gobierno-corta-el-gas-a-la-industria-por-escasez-en-plena-ola-de-frio

Sigue la cosa calentita, esto es como la inflación, serán cosas mías.

senslev no pongo en duda esa gráfica, supongamos que es cierta. ¿Dónde se han medido esos datos? Posiblemente en el hemisferio norte (por la estacionalidad de las temperaturas). ¿Siempre el mismo día, a la misma hora y con los mismos factores?

Pregunto esto porque estoy hasta la coronilla de alarmismo y medias verdades. Por ejemplo el año pasado se reportó el momento más caluroso medido en Reino Unido en la historia. Titulares, menciones en los telediarios.. el pack completo.

Sólo unas semanas después alguien se molestó en ver con detalles las mediciones y ver qué aunque había sido un día caluroso, esas mediciones fueron un momento muy puntual. Escarbando más y más alguien se dio cuenta de que esas mediciones se habían tomado momentos después del despegue de un caza de la RAF en una pista muy cercana al lugar de la medición.

Esto no lo publicó casi nadie. Había que irse a las páginas interiores a ver esta corrección en una esquinita (eso los medios que lo publicaron).

Si de verdad tenemos un cambio climático tan catastrófico en ciernes, ¿por qué toda esta sarta de manipulaciones y medias verdades? ¿Por qué tanto sensacionalismo que llega a insultar a la inteligencia?

Y si el cambio climático es cierto, ¿es antropogénico? A mí la mentira del CO2 ya me da risa (nadie habla del vapor de agua, por ejemplo). Y si no es antropogénico, ¿qué hacemos? ¿dejamos que la naturaleza siga su curso o ponemos nuestros recursos en luchar contra natura y cambiar el clima para nuestra conveniencia? Porque gritar que se calienta la Tierra sin analizar las causas, las consecuencias y alternativas (que curiosamente siempre son subir impuestos) no sirve de nada más que para generar ruido y otra cortina de humo.

Que conste que esto último no lo digo por tí ni por tus posts, lo digo en general.

[senslev]

Ya, ya, sin problemas. En el post anterior sobre este tema puse links que tratan las diferentes sensibilidades. De hecho en este mismo mensaje que comentas, el autor que critica el tecno optimismo en relación con el tema baterías y transición energética con renovables, no tiene claro que el origen del cambio climático (que se reconoce en general) sea por el CO2. Otros hablan de ciclos solares, sobre el vapor de agua, y que el aumento de temperatura se está exacerbando por la erupción del volcán de Tonga y por el fenómeno de El Niño, que por cierto, termina ya y empieza el de La Niña y otros fenómenos como la reducción del SO2 en los carburantes usados por los barcos (esto en el aumento de la temperatura del agua del océano/mar) 

Sobre los datos y la honradez de quien los interpreta, ¿nos fiamos o no nos fiamos?. Cuando me hago esta pregunta, pienso lo que tiene que ganar o perder la persona que se expone o involucra al tratar el tema. No creo que Turiel, Nate Hagens, Tom Murphy, el autor de Beamspot o Javier Vinós ganen nada exponiéndose como lo hacen (cada uno con sus opiniones e investigaciones). Lo que sí tienen claro es que hay cambio climático, pero no se ponen de acuerdo en el origen y en la gravedad.

Los que sí ganan son los de la transición energética fake y los que nos meten en guerras que nos empobrecen.

Personalmente creo hay cambio climático y el ser humano es, como poco, en parte responsable. Sobre el tema del peak-oil y combustibles fósiles, creo que empezamos el declive. No son lo mismo 2000 millones de almas que 8000 millones y el impacto que tiene en la naturaleza el nivel de depredación que requiere nuestro estilo de vida. Tampoco es lo mismo el EROI de antes que el de ahora.

El tiempo dirá. No creo que nadie lo sepa, cero certezas, pero hay pistas.

[Derby]

Jeffrey Sachs: The Untold History of the Cold War, CIA Coups Around the World, and COVID's Origin

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JS-3QssVPeg

Chapters:
0:00:00 Intro
0:20:17 Why did America push for Ukraine to Join NATO?
0:58:34 What is a Neocon?
1:25:28 Regime Change Never Works
1:36:27 Who Blew up the Nord Stream Pipeline?
2:01:45 COVID Origins

[asustadísimos]

[Todo apunta a 2025.— Se está dando la noticia del envío a Ucrania de asesores o instructores militares del Estado francés como si se tratara de dos cosas: 1.º Un «desembarco» en Ucrania. 2.º Una «toma de liderazgo» en una supuesta coalición de países prestos a ayudar militarmente a Ucrania, nada de OTAN.

Demasiado bombo y platillo, ¿no creen? Encaja, a la perfección con nuestra tesis de que estamos ante el mutis anglo invicto, con una 'mise-en-scène' francesa, único Estado 'atómico' de la UE, para que la derrota cuente en el marcador de esta.

Formaría parte de esta 'mise-en-scène' un enfriamiento de los lazos intra-OTAN, algo que es verosímil tras las elecciones norteamericanas de noviembre.

N. B.: Hay derrotas más o menos ordenadas dentro del desorden que son todas. Incluso hay derrotas silenciosas, sin vencedor oficial. Siempre significan el cese de los combates.

P. S.: A nosotros nos importa muchísimo lo que pase en Ucrania porque se trata de un conflicto estructural para el sistema capitalista. Tanto, que de él depende la suelta del nuevo patrón planificado de PIB (Producción-Renta-Gasto) con el que que el sistema capitalista se está liberando de la anarquía del modelo popularcapitalista de los 1980.]

[Derby]

— Se está dando la noticia del envío a Ucrania de asesores o instructores militares del Estado francés como si se tratara de dos cosas: 1.º Un «desembarco» en Ucrania. 2.º Una «toma de liderazgo» en una supuesta coalición de países prestos a ayudar militarmente a Ucrania, nada de OTAN.

Demasiado bombo y platillo, ¿no creen? Encaja, a la perfección con nuestra tesis de que estamos ante el mutis anglo invicto, con una 'mise-en-scène' francesa, único Estado 'atómico' de la UE, para que la derrota cuente en el marcador de esta.

Formaría parte de esta 'mise-en-scène' un enfriamiento de los lazos intra-OTAN, algo que es verosímil tras las elecciones norteamericanas de noviembre.

Concretamente la noticia ha aparecido en Reuters:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/france-could-announce-sending-military-trainers-ukraine-soon-diplomats-say-2024-05-30/

France could announce sending military trainers to Ukraine soon, diplomats say

PARIS, May 30 (Reuters) - France could soon send military trainers to Ukraine despite the concerns of some allies and criticism by Russia, and may announce its decision next week during a visit by the Ukrainian president, three diplomatic sources said.

The diplomats said Paris hoped to forge and lead a coalition of countries offering such assistance to Kyiv's war effort even though some of its European Union partners fear it could make a direct conflict with Russia more likely.

France would initially send a limited number of personnel to assess the modalities of a mission before dispatching several hundred trainers, two of the diplomats said.

Training would centre around demining, keeping equipment operational and technical expertise for warplanes to be provided by the West, they said. Paris would also finance, arm, and train a Ukrainian motorised brigade.

"The arrangements are very advanced and we could expect something next week," said one of the sources.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is due in France on June 6, the 80th anniversary of D-day, when Allied soldiers landed in Normandy to drive out Nazi German forces during World War Two. He will hold talks with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris the next day.

Ukraine's top commander said on Monday he had signed paperwork allowing French military instructors to visit Ukrainian training centres soon.

Ukraine's Defence Ministry, in a "clarification", said Kyiv had been expressing interest in a project involving receiving foreign instructors since February.

Russian President Vladimir Putin portrayed the presence of regular French military in Ukraine as a step towards global conflict.

TALK OF A COALITION

France has trained about 10,000 Ukrainian troops since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, but has done so within the EU. The new mission would not be under EU or NATO auspices, the diplomats said.

Speaking after a Franco-German cabinet meeting this week, Macron did not deny the possibility of sending instructors following the Ukrainian comments, saying that he did not comment on "rumours or decisions that could come."

France's defence ministry said training on Ukrainian soil was among subjects that had been discussed since February.

"Like all the projects discussed at that time, this track continues to be the subject of work with the Ukrainians, in particular to understand their exact needs," it said.

Baltic states have in the past indicated they could join France in such a project.

"Lithuania is ready to join a coalition led by France for example which would train soldiers in Ukraine," Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis told France's LCI television on May 20.

EU defence ministers on Tuesday debated the idea of training Ukrainian forces in Ukraine but did not reach a common position, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said.

(This story has been corrected to fix the spelling of Josep Borrell in paragraph 16)

https://www.ft.com/content/37ed6927-c1e2-4ed3-be2a-871e03fd9ebb

France leads initiative on sending military trainers to Ukraine

Paris and Kyiv in talks ahead of D-Day anniversary when Volodymyr Zelenskyy will visit France

(...)Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas told the Financial Times earlier this month that there were already “countries who are training soldiers on the ground” in Ukraine. She argued that if training personnel were attacked by Russian forces it would not automatically trigger Nato’s Article 5 mutual defence clause: “It is not how it works. It’s not automatic. So these fears are not well-founded.”

President Zelenskyy’s office declined to comment on Thursday. The French defence ministry said it was still working with its Ukrainian counterparts “in particular to understand their exact needs”.

Asked for details on Tuesday at a press conference in Germany alongside chancellor Olaf Scholz, Macron did not deny the plans, but said he would “not comment on what were uncoordinated and unfortunate communications”.

“I will have the opportunity when president Zelenskyy comes to France next week to receive him and to express myself very precisely on what we are going to do,” he said. 

[Derby]

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/30/feds-williams-says-inflation-is-too-high-but-will-start-coming-down-soon.html

Fed’s Williams says inflation is too high but will start coming down soon

NEW YORK — New York Federal Reserve President John Williams on Thursday said inflation is still too high but he is confident it will start decelerating later this year.

With markets on edge over the direction of monetary policy, Williams offered no clear signs on where he is leaning as far as possible interest rate cuts go. Instead, he reiterated recent positions from the central bank that it has seen a “lack of further progress” toward its goals as inflation readings have been mostly higher than expected this year.

“With the economy coming into better balance over time and the disinflation taking place in other economies reducing global inflationary pressures, I expect inflation to resume moderating in the second half of this year,” Williams said in remarks at the Economic Club of New York. “But let me be clear: Inflation is still above our 2% longer-run target, and I am very focused on ensuring we achieve both of our dual mandate goals.”

For nearly a year, the Fed has been in a holding pattern, keeping its benchmark borrowing rate in a range between 5.25%-5.5%, the highest in more than 23 years.

Williams called policy “well positioned” as the Fed seeks to keep the labor market strong and bring inflation back to its 2% target. Most inflation indicators are near 3% now; a key reading from the Commerce Department is due Friday.

Inflation as measured through the Fed’s preferred yardstick — the personal consumption expenditures price index — is expected to come in at 2.7% for April, according to the Dow Jones estimate. Williams said he expects PCE inflation to drift down to 2.5% this year on its way back to 2%.

“We have seen a great deal of progress toward our goals over the past two years. I am confident that we will restore price stability and set the stage for sustained economic prosperity. We are committed to getting the job done,” he said.(...)

[Derby]

https://elpais.com/economia/2024-05-30/el-problema-de-la-vivienda-amenaza-el-crecimiento-economico-segun-el-consejo-economico.html

El problema de la vivienda amenaza el crecimiento económico, según el Consejo Económico

Una cuarta parte de la población se encuentra en riesgo de pobreza y exclusión social, según resalta la memoria socioeconómica y laboral de 2023 del organismo

La magnitud del problema en el acceso a la vivienda trasciende los límites del sector inmobiliario y corre el peligro de afectar a la economía española. Esta advertencia es una de las principales reflexiones que recoge la Memoria Socioeconómica y Laboral 2023 elaborada por el Consejo Económico y Social (CES), y que su presidente, Antón Costas, y el responsable de la Comisión de Trabajo que la ha redactado, José Ignacio Conde-Ruiz, presentaron este jueves en la sede del organismo en Madrid. Otra de las denuncias que subraya el informe es que más de una cuarta parte de la población (26,5%) se encuentra actualmente en situación de pobreza y riesgo de exclusión social, pese a la mejoría del mercado de trabajo y al buen comportamiento de las finanzas del país. Algo que ambos responsables han calificado de “inaceptable”.

“Aunque, a nivel general, podemos sacar pecho [acerca de la evolución de la economía española en 2023], a la vez, es posible decir que hay una serie de elementos que resultan advertencias importantes para el mantenimiento de este cambio. Y, entre ellas, está que el problema de la vivienda puede acabar estrangulando el buen comportamiento de la economía y del mercado laboral”, ha reflexionado Antón Costas. “No lo digo en el sentido de que pueda llegar a crear una crisis económica, pero sí de que pueda afectar a otras actividades y sectores, como, por ejemplo, el turismo”, ha matizado.

Conde Ruiz, por su parte, ha resaltado que la memoria también relaciona los problemas del sector inmobiliario con otros fenómenos como la movilidad de las personas, y, por extensión, de los trabajadores. “La vivienda repercute en la eficiencia, puesto que la movilidad es fundamental, porque si no hay viviendas, nadie va a ir a los sitios donde pueden necesitarse trabajadores, por mucho que los salarios sean altos”, ha indicado.

El economista, al tiempo, ha recordado que las economías de aglomeración —esto es, cuando varias empresas conviven en una misma ciudad, por ejemplo, y esta concentración de trabajadores provoca que se creen distintos servicios y negocios alrededor—, son “un fenómeno global” y actualmente “se está dando en algunas zonas en detrimento de otras”, lo que puede generar “cuellos de botella”.

Ambos intervinientes han justificado la falta de una evaluación de los efectos de la Ley de Vivienda, aprobada hace un año, por considerar que todavía no ha pasado el tiempo suficiente para hacer un análisis “tajante y con datos”.

La memoria completa, de 509 páginas, y repartida en distintos bloques, analiza desde el comportamiento macro que tuvieron las finanzas del país en el último ejercicio, hasta el impacto de las políticas sociales sobre el bienestar de los ciudadanos. En este punto, Costas ha sentenciado que la pobreza “no es solo un problema moral”, sino también económico, puesto que, de acuerdo con diferentes estudios internacionales, “las inversiones en la infancia son las que presentan unas mayores tasas de retorno”; y político puesto que “estás impidiendo el desarrollo de un cuarto por ciento de la población de tu país”.

Niveles prepandemia

El informe del CES también señala que el consumo en los hogares españoles se mantuvo fuerte pese al aumento de los tipos de interés y los altos precios, algo que se produjo gracias a la mejora del empleo y los salarios, la confianza del consumidor y el acceso al crédito. Sin embargo, indica que “la inversión sigue débil”, ya que aún no se han recuperado los niveles prepandemia. Sin embargo, indica que espera que esto mejore con el Plan de Recuperación, Transformación y Resiliencia (PRTR) y una disminución de la incertidumbre.

En el ámbito laboral, el texto detalla que 2023 fue positivo con récords de empleo y reducción del desempleo, y que los salarios mejoraron gracias al V Acuerdo por el Empleo y la Negociación Colectiva (AENC). Un pacto bilateral, alcanzado entre sindicatos y patronales, que en opinión de Costas de muestra ser “muy poderoso” por los distintos efectos positivos que ha provocado sobre la economía —como el aumento del gasto—, y que evidencia como el diálogo social es un “activo intangible importantísimo para el buen funcionamiento de la economía y la sociedad”.

Respecto al hecho de que a lo largo del año pasado se alcanzasen menos acuerdos a tres bandas, Costas le ha quitado hierro, y ha concebido la actual “sequía” a un “cambio de ciclo”. Sin embargo, el presidente del CES ha insistido en que las conversaciones entre los representantes de los trabajadores y de los empresarios —cuyas principales organizaciones están representadas dentro del órgano consultivo del Gobierno en materia socioeconómica y laboral y, por tanto, comparten las conclusiones que se presentan en este informe— siguen siendo fluidas y eficaces.

https://www.ces.es/documents/10180/5311478/Memoria_2023_APROBADA.pdf

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/96697013-abe9-4873-84fa-fabe59775aff

US to offer Ukraine security pact as tensions rise between allies

Agreement next month aims to placate Kyiv officials who fear relationship with Washington has hit a low

The US is close to signing a new bilateral security pact with Ukraine in a signal of support aiming to assuage Kyiv after “tense” relations that some Ukrainian officials say have hit their lowest ebb since Russia’s full-scale invasion.

The agreement would be the most significant in a series of deals Ukraine has struck with Nato countries that lays out commitments on long-term support, including military training, intelligence sharing and economic assistance.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s frustration with Joe Biden was laid bare this week, when the Ukrainian president rebuked his US counterpart in unusually blunt terms, saying Biden’s plan to attend a Democratic fundraiser rather than Ukraine’s peace summit on June 15-16 was “not a strong decision”.

One Zelenskyy-appointed senior government official who spoke to the Financial Times about the US-Ukraine relationship said: “We are farther apart than ever since the war started. It is very, very tense.”

However days before the peace summit, Zelenskyy and Biden are expected to sign a bilateral security agreement on the sidelines of the G7 meeting in Italy next month, US officials told the FT.

The pact has been negotiated during weeks of increasingly strained relations between Kyiv and Washington. Zelenskyy’s office this week issued a memo to officials and MPs, seen by the FT, that instructs them to criticise both Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping for not attending the summit. “If they don’t [attend], then what is their real interest?” the memo wrote.

Several Ukrainian officials said that Kyiv’s bitterness over lack of top-level US support for its peace summit initiative was just one of many points of friction with Washington and other western partners that have erupted at a particularly difficult time for Ukraine’s leadership.

More than a dozen current and former Ukrainian officials and G7 country diplomats in Kyiv who spoke to the FT point to a clutch of contentious issues. These include Congress’s six-month delay in approving US military assistance; the expected lack of substantive progress towards Nato membership for Ukraine at the alliance’s Washington summit in July; the Biden administration’s prohibition on Kyiv’s use of American-supplied weapons inside Russia; and Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russian oil refineries.

Ukrainian attacks on two radar systems that form part of Moscow’s nuclear warning system over the past week have been a particular point of conflict with Washington, which is worried that it may provoke Moscow and further escalate the war.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy is flanked by Belgian defence minister Ludivine Dedonder and prime minister Alexander De Croo this week after Belgium agreed to provide Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets © Olivier Hoslet/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock

Other points of concern relate to diverging strategies on how Ukraine can achieve victory and what that victory might look like, as well as Zelenskyy’s little explained removal of top government and military officials the US had worked closely with.

Several Ukrainian government officials and diplomats from G7 nations cited the firing of commander-in-chief Valery Zaluzhny in February and infrastructure minister Oleksandr Kubrakov this month. Both men were well respected and enjoyed close working relationships with US and EU officials. The officials told the FT that G7 ambassadors have warned Zelenskyy’s government about what they see as disruptive and inexplicable moves.

The fraying relations and discord come as Ukrainian forces struggle to hold their defensive lines against a bigger and better-armed Russian army in the east, and while Zelenskyy is under huge pressure to mobilise more men and take other unpopular decisions to bolster the war effort.

Zelenskyy’s press secretary did not immediately respond to questions about relations with Biden’s White House.

The Biden administration has been among Ukraine’s most steadfast supporters, committing more than $175bn in emergency assistance to the country since the start of Russia’s all-out invasion in February 2022. Biden has repeatedly stated that the US would stick by Ukraine’s side for “as long as it takes”.

A US official said while there were points of disagreement in any bilateral relationship, there had been positive developments that had cheered officials in Kyiv. These include the US approval for Kyiv’s use of long-range 300km Atacms missiles and Congress passing $60bn of aid last month.

The US official also said Ukraine’s request to use US weapons to strike inside Russia was relatively recent, coming three weeks ago when Russian forces opened a new front in the north-eastern Kharkiv region. The official said the request is being evaluated by the Biden administration, suggesting a shift was possible soon.

But a second senior Ukrainian official said Zelenskyy has grown more “emotional and nervous” over the situation on the battlefield and what they say the president sees as Washington’s eagerness to start negotiations with Russia, despite the White House stating in public that it is entirely a decision for Kyiv to initiate such talks.

Zelenskyy “thinks they want the war to go away before the [US] election”, the official said. He added that the Ukrainian president was also unhappy with the Biden administration’s insistence that Kyiv not hit Russian oil infrastructure over fears of raising global gas prices in an election year.

A third senior Ukrainian official used the word “paranoia” to describe the feeling inside the presidential office in recent months, as Zelenskyy and his team have worked to prepare for next month’s peace summit. “Zelenskyy has deep anxiety about the military situation but especially about the peace summit in June,” the official said.

A woman holds a portrait of a Ukrainian soldier at a memorial area in Kyiv © Roman Pilipey/AFP/Getty Images

The Ukrainian president has tried to attract leaders from as many countries as possible to his summit in Switzerland, with the aim of uniting the global community against Vladimir Putin’s aggression. The Russian president has not been invited.

Representatives from more than 80 countries have confirmed their attendance, according to the memo and Zelenskyy. Meanwhile, Russia has been working to convince developing countries to sit it out.

Zelenskyy’s office wrote a memo on May 26 that outlines talking points for officials and MPs to use when speaking with western partners and media about the summit, and specifically instructs Ukrainian officials and lawmakers to pile public pressure on Biden and Xi.

“It is unlikely that the world will understand President Biden and President Xi if they do not join in the realisation of such undeniably just goals and bringing peace closer.”

Zelenskyy himself criticised the lack of response from the Biden administration during a visit to Brussels on Tuesday. “I am aware that America supports this summit, but we not aware on which level,” Zelenskyy said.

“I believe that the peace summit needs President Biden,” Zelenskyy continued. “His absence will only be a personal, standing applause to Putin.”

US officials say that Ukraine scheduled the summit in Switzerland for June 15 and 16 despite being told that Biden would probably be unable to attend. A senior official will represent the US at the meeting.

“The US and President Biden has been there for President Zelenskyy and for the people of Ukraine, and that will continue regardless of who sits in what chair at the peace summit,” White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said on Wednesday.

Several members of Zelenskyy’s own government said they are beginning to worry about the methods employed by their president to communicate with the US. One said that Zelenskyy was “very irritated” with Biden, adding they were concerned about “openly provoking” the White House.

“What do you say in America?” a fourth Ukrainian government official asked the FT. “Do not bite the hand that feeds you.”

[Cadavre Exquis]

Los empresarios advierten de que Gipuzkoa tiene un problema con la falta de vivienda y no con los salarios

https://www.diariovasco.com/economia/empresas/guipuzcoanas/empresarios-gipuzkoa-jovenes-vivienda-20240529113353-nt.html#vtm_modulosEngag=lomas:deportes/futbol:noticia:5

¡Cadavre, yo te invoco!

https://www.diariovasco.com/economia/empresas/guipuzcoanas/empresarios-gipuzkoa-jovenes-vivienda-20240529113353-nt.html

Saludos.