PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Primavera 2024

[Derby]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-manufacturers-shrink-in-may-as-orders-drop-industrial-side-of-the-economy-is-soft-ed4916a0

‘The manufacturing side of the economy appears to have stalled,’ ISM says

ISM manufacturing index falls to 48.7% in May


American manufacturers are treading water. AFP via Getty Images

The numbers: A key barometer of U.S. factories fell to a three-month low as new orders waned and businesses were reluctant to invest due to high interest rates.

“The manufacturing side of the economy appears to have stalled,” said Timothy Fiore, chairman of the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index.

The index fell to 48.7% in May from 49.2% in the prior month. Numbers below 50% signal that the manufacturing sector is contracting.

The ISM report is viewed as a window into the health of the economy. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast the index to rise slightly last month.

Big picture: The industrial side of the economy is unlikely to generate sustained growth until interest rates fall and a lower cost of borrowing entices consumers and business customers to buy more goods or invest.

“Companies are extremely cautious with any form of investment,” Fiore said.

At the same time, higher prices of raw materials such as oil, plastics, copper, aluminum are putting upward pressure on prices. That could keep inflation elevated.

Market reaction: The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.48% fell, but the S&P 500 SPX, -0.18%, rose in Monday trades.

[sargento.algodon]

El artículo del Canadá de Trudeau es esclarecedor. Mucho.

Pero hay una frase que me choca. "billions of dollars are being thrown at the problem."... ¿Cuántos millones de euros se han lanzad desde las arcas públicas españolas para solucionar el problema? La construcción de vivienda pública en España desde 2008 ha bajado a niveles de risa. Ya no hay sorteos de viviendas en polideportivos que paralizan la vida de la ciudad y dan lugar a cotilleos y conversaciones entre marujas (recuerdos de hace 20 años, en la pequeña capital del norte, donde mis amigos todavía viven felices con sus familias). Por otro lado, las rebajas fiscales no han sido muchas (el 60% de los rendimientos netos de alquiler, ahora un porcentaje variable según la edad del inquilino, la alineación de los planetas y la situación del inmueble y los que todavía tengan la hipoteca desde antes de 2013).

Que en Canadá lanzan millones y no solucionan nada y aquí no solucionamos nada pero no lanzamos millones. No sé que es preferible.

[Derby]

https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/germanys-aaa-ethiopian-peasants-meet

[Derby]

Que en Canadá lanzan millones y no solucionan nada y aquí no solucionamos nada pero no lanzamos millones. No sé que es preferible.

Yo creo que también lanzamos millones igual, todo sea por sostener el inmobiliario como vehículo de inversión.

[sargento.algodon]

Sobre los incentivos fiscales, yo, joven opositor, miraba como mis amigos se iban casando en una serie de fases:
- Apertura de cuenta ahorro vivienda para poder deducir un poco de su IRPF como trabajadores que empiezan y no tienen hijos.
- Inscripción en las listas de demandantes de vivienda de protección oficial, porque esas cosas tardan.
- Coche, novia y firma de arras apremiada por el fin de la desgravación y precios en subasta o sorteo en pabellón municipal.
- Entrega de llaves y señalamiento de fecha de boda.
- Invitación al amigo que todavía pasa los días en la biblioteca estudiando.

[Derby]

https://www.economist.com/international/2024/05/29/is-your-rent-ever-going-to-fall

International | Control yourself!
Is your rent ever going to fall?

Too often politicians tout awful solutions for helping tenants


Illustration: Rob en Robin

An entire generation of tenants is tearing its hair out. Across the rich world—from America to New Zealand—millions spend more than a third of their disposable income on rent. The squeeze extends from social democracies that prize strong tenancy rights to Anglophone countries that prefer homeownership—and it is mostly getting worse. The good news for anxious renters is that they are gaining a louder voice as their numbers swell. The bad news is that campaigners and politicians mostly focus on the wrong kinds of solutions to their woes.

The 20th century saw an astonishing rise in homeownership. In 1920 about 20% of Britons owned their own home; by 2000, 70% did. Many Anglophone countries followed a similar path. Even in countries less attached to the idea of owning, private renting became less common after a boom in social housing.

The story in the 21st century has been different. Rod Hick of Cardiff University in Wales calculates that in countries such as Britain, Denmark, Ireland, New Zealand and Spain, homeownership rates fell by ten percentage points in the decade or so to 2018. Data on renting are patchy. But figures from the OECD, a club of rich countries, show that there has been a shift towards renting in most wealthy countries since 2010 (see chart 1). A bigger private-rented sector is probably here to stay, predicts Peter Kemp of Britain’s Oxford University.


Chart: The Economist

One of the most dramatic shifts has been in Britain. A fifth of the population now rent privately, up from a tenth in the early 2000s—an increase of more than 6m renters. It was a British bank, Halifax, that coined the term “generation rent” in 2011. But British millennials, born between 1981 and 1996, were not special. A sagging jobs market, high house prices, rising rents and tighter mortgage rules left many youngsters less able to afford a first property.

Employment and housing pressures have eased somewhat. Generation Z, which includes those born between 1997 and 2012, is now earning much more than millennials did at the same age. Cooling housing markets may be helping some millennials get their first set of keys, albeit often with the help of mum and dad. But others remain stuck. In Britain half of renters are now over 35. What was seen in many places as the sector for the young and footloose is increasingly home to families and the elderly. Politicians are beginning to fret about a coming wave of retired renters.

Rents have risen particularly sharply in the past three years, fuelled by workers returning to cities after the pandemic and by wages rising even as the supply of properties remains constrained. High interest rates have crimped already inadequate levels of building. Housing starts in Sweden were down by 50% in the first quarter of 2023. And lending rules remain tight.

Some tenants complain about insecurity and grotty conditions. But the biggest problem, particularly for those on low incomes, is affordability. The definition of “unaffordable” is open to debate, but the OECD and others commonly focus on housing that accounts for more than 30% of gross income or, alternatively, 40% of disposable income (ie, income after tax and social-security charges). In 2022 almost half of American households in the private-rental sector were being charged more than 30% of gross income, according to the Joint Centre for Housing Studies at Harvard University in America.

That was the highest level on record—and up by 2m in three years. Across the rich world, rents at 40% or more of disposable income are common (see chart 2). And those data miss large black markets—where sublets do not comply with regulations—in countries such as Sweden and Germany.


Chart: The Economist

High rents do not just lighten people’s wallets. A dysfunctional rental market can make it harder for those on low incomes to get good jobs. Stockholm’s metro is part of one of the best public-transport networks in the world. Yet one in five businesses says high costs and a shortage of affordable housing make it difficult to hire young workers. Lucas Persson, a 28-year-old who works at a think-tank, says many of his friends have considered leaving the city. Spotify, a Swedish music-streaming business, has called the broken rental market a barrier to expansion.

Many of those taking up the cause of renters choose to blame landlords—or as some activists call them, “social parasites”. The urge to control prices often follows. In 2022 the Scottish government introduced a rent freeze. Sadiq Khan, London’s mayor, has long wanted to do the same. Cities in France and Germany have tightened rent controls in response to rising unaffordability. The Australian Greens say a rent freeze would rein in “wealthy property moguls”.

In America there have long been rent controls for existing tenants in New York and San Francisco. In recent years Oregon and California have passed state-wide laws; since 2023 Michelle Wu, the mayor of Boston, has been trying to follow suit.

The appeal of all this to politicians is fairly obvious, says Professor Kemp. Landlords are unpopular (Joe Biden has reassured voters he will be “cracking down” on them). So, too, in many places is building houses. By contrast, rent controls often attract broad support: after all, who is against lower rents? Even better, they cost the government nothing upfront and can be set up at the stroke of a pen.

Economists object. Rent controls first became popular in the aftermath of two world wars—a time when tenants were a large voting block. Milton Friedman attacked controls in an essay in 1946, warning that they would result in the “haphazard and arbitrary allocation of space, inefficient use of space, [and] retardation of new construction”. Liberal economists regard controls as a zombie policy.

No city today better demonstrates the distortions Friedman warned of than Stockholm. On paper Sweden’s system of rent controls, the hyresreglering, is the strictest in the world. A powerful tenants’ union negotiates with landlords, holding rents as much as 50% below the market. In practice lots of people lose out. Swedes must join waiting lists for a rent-controlled apartment: in central Stockholm the average wait is 20 years; across the city it is about half that. Many who reach the front of the queue are in their 50s and own a home. Young Swedes often have to put up with expensive sublets agreed to under the table, laments Mr Persson.

Those lucky enough to have a flat refuse to move. Families come up with ingenious ways of passing contracts to distant relatives. If a couple is so bold as to want more space for children, they must engineer a complex chain of swaps. Or resort to bribes. In 2021 a court case revealed that a woman paid SKr2.4m, or $220,000, for a black-market contract for an apartment in Ostermalm, a posh part of Stockholm.

“The queue system allocates scarce apartments to wealthy, upper-middle class Swedes while those who need them live in shitty, uncertain accommodation outside the city,” says Brett Christophers, a geographer at Uppsala University in Sweden. Swedes like to think their approach is fair and progressive. But immigrants fare worst of all because they find the system hardest to navigate, according to Fredrik Kopsch of Lund University, also in Sweden.

Not all forms of rent control are equally harmful—and their impact depends on where and how they are implemented. One reason the idea never dies is that proponents keep adapting it. The most destructive policies see rents artificially capped or frozen at a fixed level. Most governments have long since abandoned these. But every so often one is mad enough to try again, such as the authorities in Berlin in 2020 and Scotland in 2022.

More common now are controls that seek to limit rent increases within tenancies, for instance to a fixed percentage above inflation. The idea behind these is that landlords and tenants do not always have equal bargaining power, so in theory landlords can gouge tenants by taking advantage of high moving costs. Yet if such policies create a wedge between controlled and market rents, they will still encourage landlords not to invest in their properties and tenants not to move.

In Boston Ms Wu proposed an annual cap on increases of CPI plus 6%—a level few landlords would try to exceed. But the problem is that once politicians have control over rental prices, they are tempted to keep bearing down on them, which gums up the market. In Germany recent clampdowns have done exactly that, according to Stefan Kofner of the country’s Görlitz University. In Sweden the cost of rent-controlled apartments fell far below market rents long ago.

Price controls can act like a ratchet: easy to tighten but very hard to relax. Sweden’s parliament has debated reforms for years; in 2021 a modest proposal helped cause a government to fall. If the concern is protecting tenants from gouging, Anglophone countries should improve tenants’ ability to appeal against above-market increases or challenge bad behaviour.

Rent controls are most damaging when supply is constrained and demand is high, squeezing those searching for somewhere to live. The hyresreglering is failing partly because wealthy municipalities around the city have increasingly resisted new building, says Mr Kopsch. American lefties talk dreamily of Vienna, where 80% of the city’s inhabitants live in rent-controlled apartment blocks. Last year the New York Times even dubbed it a “Renters’ Utopia”. But that city’s planning laws have long made it easy to keep adding apartment blocks and, in any case, its population has barely increased since the second world war. Seeing Vienna-style rent controls as the answer to problems in Manhattan misses the point.

The foundations of change

One city provides a good model for helping renters, however. Frustratingly, its lessons are being ignored. In 2016 Auckland in New Zealand, which had some of the least affordable housing in the world, passed a law allowing more dense development on three-quarters of residential land. Lawmakers particularly wanted to encourage more apartments within walking distance of the city centre, public transport or commercial areas.

A housing boom followed—adding 44,000 homes in seven years, equivalent to around 8% of current stock. A new study by Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy of the University of Auckland estimates that the extra homes have held rents almost 30% below where they otherwise would have been. In 2021 Jacinda Ardern, New Zealand’s then prime minister, passed a law nudging other cities to follow Auckland’s lead. But progress has stalled. All around the world, the only way renters will get a better deal is for cities to enable more building. In Stockholm, Mr Persson is not optimistic. In a few years he hopes to get a rent-controlled flat in Rinkeby-Kista, a suburb struggling with crime that is 12km outside of the city. ■

[sudden and sharp]

Rusia declara agente extranjero al mayor movimiento de esposas contra la movilización para la guerra en Ucrania
https://elpais.com/internacional/2024-06-03/rusia-declara-agente-extranjero-al-mayor-movimiento-de-esposas-contra-la-movilizacion-para-la-guerra-en-ucrania.html
El grupo ‘Camino a casa’ entra en la lista negra tras sumarse decenas de miles de seguidores a su causa. El Kremlin rechaza tajantemente desmovilizar a los combatientes hasta que acabe la ofensiva

Las autoridades acusan a estas mujeres de “crear una imagen negativa de Rusia” y llamar a los ciudadanos a participar en protestas no autorizadas. A diferencia de otros actos contra la guerra de Ucrania o por la persecución del disidente Alexéi Navalni, las mujeres de los movilizados no han sido arrestadas cuando se han congregado ante los monumentos militares para exigir con flores que sus esposos regresen a casa. El quid para el Kremlin es que su detención tensaría aún más la cuerda con los militares, que en un lapso de un año ya han visto un intento de rebelión militar y una purga en el alto mando.

No es tan fácil parar a las mujeres... Veremos.

[CHOSEN]

Si la solución era poner los pisitos "a trabajar", nada mejor que el alquiler turístico.
Eso es un hecho.
La pregunta es: ¿a que viene esa inquina contra el alquiler turístico?
Digo más: ¿Porqué nunca se menciona QUIENES SON LOS BENEFICIADOS?

Esta película ya la he visto antes.
Las élites, los poderosos, etc... pensamiento mágico e infantil, en definitiva.
Todos queriendo arreglar la casa de los demás, sin mirar a la propia.
Muy analfa-progre todo.
Apesta.


Un piso turístico, una empresa.
Y a pagar.
¿O es que los sociatas ahora ya no quieren subir los impuestos? 

[sudden and sharp]

¿Se ha hecho eso en alguna parte? Pregunto.

[Saturio]

Rusia declara agente extranjero al mayor movimiento de esposas contra la movilización para la guerra en Ucrania
https://elpais.com/internacional/2024-06-03/rusia-declara-agente-extranjero-al-mayor-movimiento-de-esposas-contra-la-movilizacion-para-la-guerra-en-ucrania.html
El grupo ‘Camino a casa’ entra en la lista negra tras sumarse decenas de miles de seguidores a su causa. El Kremlin rechaza tajantemente desmovilizar a los combatientes hasta que acabe la ofensiva

Las autoridades acusan a estas mujeres de “crear una imagen negativa de Rusia” y llamar a los ciudadanos a participar en protestas no autorizadas. A diferencia de otros actos contra la guerra de Ucrania o por la persecución del disidente Alexéi Navalni, las mujeres de los movilizados no han sido arrestadas cuando se han congregado ante los monumentos militares para exigir con flores que sus esposos regresen a casa. El quid para el Kremlin es que su detención tensaría aún más la cuerda con los militares, que en un lapso de un año ya han visto un intento de rebelión militar y una purga en el alto mando.

No es tan fácil parar a las mujeres... Veremos.

Lamentable.
Es lamentable que se mande a gente a ser vaporizada, desmembrada, mutilada...
Y cuando nacen los movimientos de oposición la represión es la mayor posible, no hay nada comparable. El que quiere la paz es peor que el enemigo.

De la wikipedia:

Tres soldados del ejército que se negaron a desplegarse en Vietnam, que serían conocidos como los Fort Hood Three, alegando la ilegalidad e inmoralidad de la guerra fueron condenados a prisión.23​ El famoso campeón de boxeo de los pesos pesados Muhammad Ali se declaró objetor de conciencia y se negó a ir a la guerra; el gobernador de Illinois lo calificó como «repugnante» y el gobernador de Maine declaró que ese gesto era «un desprecio al patriotismo americano». Ali fue condenado a cinco años de prisión, condena que fue revocada tras la apelación; aun así fue despojado de su título de campeón y se le prohibió la práctica del boxeo profesional durante tres años.24​

Estados Unidos inició 1970 con incursiones en Camboya y Laos, en el marco de la guerra de Vietnam. En respuesta a estos sucesos se organizaron nuevas oleadas de protestas. En una de esas protestas celebrada en la Universidad Estatal de Kent en el estado de Ohio, la Guardia Nacional irrumpió y comenzó a disparar sobre los manifestantes allí reunidos.54​55​ 4 estudiantes fueron asesinados y 9 resultaron gravemente heridos ese 4 de mayo de 1970.56

En California, el 29 de agosto unos 25 000 estadounidenses de origen mexicano en su mayoría, participaron en la mayor manifestación antibélica celebrada en Los Ángeles. La policía los atacó con cargas y gases lacrimógenos, matando a dos personas. Momentos después de dispersar a los manifestantes, un grupo de agentes entraron en un bar cercano, donde dispararon y asesinaron a Rubén Salazar con un proyectil de gas lacrimógeno. Salazar era columnista de Los Angeles Times y director de noticias de KMEX.

Por poner algunos ejemplos.

Lo que no sabemos es lo que les está pasando a las madres ucranianas por la desmovilización.

[sudden and sharp]

 

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1797792636935561454

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1797729346607587753

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/opinion/noticias/12846810/06/24/un-pacto-con-condiciones.html

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12846546/06/24/economia-ofrece-al-pp-el-numero-dos-del-banco-de-espana-si-desbloquea-el-cgpj.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/banca-finanzas/noticias/12846865/06/24/el-credito-al-consumo-supera-los-100000-millones-por-primera-vez-desde-2009.html

Saludos.