PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Primavera 2024

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/vivienda-inmobiliario/noticias/12849430/06/24/consumo-abre-una-investigacion-a-las-plataformas-de-alquiler-turisticas-por-alquilar-pisos-sin-licencia.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12849809/06/24/la-espana-que-dimite-se-impone-el-mercado-laboral-sumo-841041-renuncias-en-el-primer-cuatrimestre.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista/20240606/page/34/textview

La OCDE avisa a Díaz de los daños de reducir la jornada laboral sin consenso

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista/20240606/page/35/textview

La actividad de las empresas en la eurozona, en máximos de doce meses

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12849728/06/24/los-precios-se-estancan-en-la-ocde-con-un-ipc-del-54-en-el-mes-de-abril.html

El sector servicios repunta en mayo en EEUU por el avance de los pedidos

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/mercados-cotizaciones/noticias/12850523/06/24/lagarde-se-prepara-para-un-recorte-justificado-y-necesario.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1798503110161334420

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1798529118205837628

Saludos.

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-06/chinese-property-stocks-fall-to-bearish-level-as-concerns-linger-lx2mlkx4

China Property Stocks Fall 20% From May High as Concerns Linger

Gauge of real estate shares declines as much as 4% Thursday
Investors remain skeptical over China’s support measures

China’s property stocks are on track to enter a technical bear market on concerns that Beijing’s efforts to bolster the sector are too small to end the rout.

A Bloomberg Intelligence gauge of Chinese developer shares dropped as much as 4% on Thursday, extending losses from a mid-May high to about 20%. Sunac China Holdings Ltd. was among the biggest laggards with a slump of as much as 12%, while Shimao Group Holdings Ltd. sank 9.3%.



Real estate stocks have retreated amid skepticism over a broad support package unveiled by the central government on May 17. While investors initially cheered the policies, which include lower down-payment requirements for homebuyers, they have since questioned how useful they will be in reviving demand and addressing a housing inventory glut.

There’s also the concern about the size of the measures. Officials have said that a central bank program would incentivize bank loans worth 500 billion yuan ($69 billion), but that’s a small fraction of the value of China’s vacant apartments.

”The latest sales data show there’s not much improvement in property fundamentals,” said Jeff Zhang, an analyst at Morningstar Inc. “We may need to wait until the end of year to see a narrowing of declines or a rise in monthly sales as a result of the government’s rescue package.”

New-home sales at the 100 biggest real estate companies dropped 33.6% from a year earlier in May, easing from a 45% decline in April, China Real Estate Information Corp. data showed. While the slight month-on-month pickup buoyed property shares earlier this week, worries over the long-term outlook later pushed investors to take profits.

“We only do short-term investment in Chinese property stocks as the industry’s fundamentals are still weak,” said Joy Young, the founder of Shenzhen Infinite Fund Management Co.

[valensianet]

Aqui un grafico terrorifico...:

https://x.com/_combarro_/status/1798638100828283292

Si algun forero consigue pegarlo como imagen, se agradece.

Sds

[Derby]

Aqui un grafico terrorifico...:

https://x.com/_combarro_/status/1798638100828283292

Si algun forero consigue pegarlo como imagen, se agradece.

Sds

[Derby]

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/06/business/office-building-foreclosures-losses.html

Office Building Losses Start to Pile Up, and More Pain Is Expected

The distress in commercial real estate is growing as some office buildings sell for much lower prices than just a few years ago.

Since the early days of the pandemic, owners of big buildings in New York and other large cities have been desperately hoping that the commercial real estate business would recover as workers returned to offices.

Four years on, hybrid work has become common, and the strain on property owners is intensifying. Some properties are going into foreclosure and being sold for sharply lower prices compared with valuations from less than a decade earlier, leaving investors with steep losses.

While the number of office buildings reaching critical stages of distress remains small, the figure has increased sharply this year. And investors, lawyers and bankers expect the pain to grow in the coming months because demand for office space remains weak and interest rates and other costs are higher than they have been in many years. The problems could be especially severe for older buildings with lots of vacant space and big loan repayments coming up.

The repercussions could extend far beyond the owners of these buildings and their lenders. A sustained drop in the value of commercial real estate could sap property tax revenue that cities like New York and San Francisco rely on to pay salaries and provide public services. Empty and nearly empty office buildings also hurt restaurants and other businesses that served the companies and workers who occupied those spaces.

“There is a lot more trouble coming,” said Mark Silverman, a partner and leader of the CMBS Special Servicer group at the law firm Locke Lord, who represents lenders in disputes with commercial mortgage borrowers. “If we think it’s bad now, it’s going to get a lot worse.”

Assessing the scale of the problem has been challenging even for real estate professionals because of the different ways in which commercial buildings are financed and the varying rules about what must be disclosed publicly.

Roughly $737 billion of office loans are spread across large and regional banks, insurance companies and other lenders, according to CoStar, a real estate research firm, and the Mortgage Bankers Association.

The delinquency rate for office building loans that are part of commercial mortgage-backed securities was nearly 7 percent in May, up from about 4 percent a year earlier, according to Trepp, a data and research firm. But only a small proportion of office loans, about $165 billion, are packaged into such securities.

Foreclosures, which can take place months or more than a year after a property owner falls behind on payments, are also climbing. Nearly 30 buildings in Dallas, New York City, San Francisco and Washington whose loans are part of commercial mortgage-backed securities were in foreclosure in April, up from a dozen in early 2023, according to Trepp.

Some buildings around the country have recently been sold for a fraction of their prepandemic prices.

In May, investors like insurance companies and banks in the top-rated, triple-A bond of a commercial mortgage-backed deal — generally considered to be nearly as safe as a government bond — lost $40 million, or about 25 percent of their investment. Holders of lower-rated bonds from the same commercial mortgage deal lost all of the $150 million they had invested.

The building that was the collateral for those bonds, 1740 Broadway, was bought by Blackstone in 2014 for $605 million. Blackstone had borrowed $300 million against the 26-story building near Columbus Circle. This spring, the building was acquired for less than $200 million.

“When you see delinquencies rising and foreclosures rising, that means we’re approaching the acceptance stage of the grieving process for office properties — and that’s healthy,” said Rich Hill, head of real estate strategy and research at Cohen & Steers, an investment firm. “But we’re not at the bottom yet.”

Mr. Hill said it could take until later this year or sometime in 2025 before the scale of the problems in the office market became clear.

Office leases tend to last as long as 10 years to give property owners time to recoup their investment and broker fees. Long leases also assure investors that they will be paid interest on the hundreds of millions of dollars — sometimes even $1 billion — that they have lent to real estate developers.

As a result, it can take a long time before decisions by tenants to downsize affect the market. In addition, some mortgages struck at low interest rates haven’t yet had to be refinanced. But the longer interest rates remain elevated, the more buildings that were profitable when interest rates were close to zero might run into trouble.

Then there is the slow process of negotiation between borrowers and lenders as they look for ways to reduce potential losses by renegotiating or extending loans.

“Even though there has been a lot of anticipation, it takes a while to play out,” said Anthony Paolone, co-head of U.S. real estate stock research at J.P. Morgan.

Part of the delay has also come from the difficulty of valuing buildings after the pandemic. Until enough properties are sold, it has been hard to know the true market value of buildings.

“A lot of that stuff at the moment is just spreadsheet math because there isn’t the transaction activity to prove it out,” Mr. Paolone said.

The sales that have taken place suggest a severe decline in commercial property values.

This spring, a 1980s-era office building at 1101 Vermont Avenue in Washington sold for $16 million, a sharp drop from its $72 million valuation in 2018. And near the Willis Tower in Chicago, an investor snapped up a landmark building late last year at 300 West Adams Street for $4 million that sold for $51 million in 2012.

“We went so long without any transactions that it created a lull,” said Alex Killick, a managing director at CW Capital Asset Management, a special servicer that works with delinquent borrowers to recoup money for holders of commercial mortgage securities. “Now we are seeing some. There is finally some data to work with.”

Some data suggest the pain is concentrated in a small proportion of buildings. While vacancy rates in U.S. office buildings are around 22 percent, roughly 60 percent of that vacant space was in 10 percent of all office buildings nationwide, according to Jones Lang LaSalle, a commercial real estate services firm, suggesting that the problems are concentrated rather than widespread.

Another hopeful sign, analysts said, was that the problems of office buildings did not seem to be endangering banks. After the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic Bank last year, some investors had feared for the health of other regional banks, which are big lenders to the commercial real estate industry. But few of the commercial mortgages held by banks have become delinquent, according to the Commercial Real Estate Finance Council.

Also largely unaffected by the situation are newer trophy buildings in New York that are able to command rents of as much as $100 a square foot, double what older buildings can charge, according to the office of the New York City comptroller.

The problem is most acute for building owners whose mortgages are coming due and who are losing many tenants. About a quarter of existing office property mortgages held by all lenders and investors, or more than $200 billion, are set to mature this year, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association and CoStar.

And while investors have been willing to lend new money to owners of warehouses or hotels, few want to refinance office loans.

That could spell the end of a tactic often referred to as “extend and pretend,” which became popular in recent years. It is called that because lenders agree to extend mortgages in the hopes that, given more time, building owners will be able to attract more tenants.

That approach stemmed partly from the hope among landlords and lenders that the Federal Reserve, after ratcheting up interest rates over the last two years, would ease or cut rates relatively quickly. In recent months, most economists and Wall Street traders have concluded that the Fed will not rapidly lower its benchmark rate or return it to the extremely low levels in place before the pandemic.

“There has been a systematic holding of the breath, with everyone hoping that the rapid increase in rates by the Fed would be just as rapidly decreased, allowing people to breathe easier and rates would be restored to lower levels,” said Ethan Penner, the chief executive of Mosaic Real Estate Investors, a firm in Los Angeles. “But that hasn’t happened, and there is only so much time that a lender can provide a borrower in terms of patience and looking the other way, especially once lease income starts to shrink.”

Another hope widely held in the real estate industry was that more companies would require employees to return to the office more frequently — but that has also not panned out.

Law firms and the finance industry have slightly increased the office space they have leased from prepandemic levels, but many other industries have scaled back. As a result, new leases signed are down about 25 percent from 2019 as measured by square feet, according to Jones Lang LaSalle.

Over the course of a full week, roughly half of New York office workers on average are going to offices, according to Kastle Systems, which tracks how many employees swipe their ID badges at commercial buildings. That is roughly in line with the national average.

The numbers exemplify the smaller role offices now play in many white-collar Americans’ lives. That shift comes at a time when the U.S. economy is healthy, suggesting that the problems in the office market may not pose a systemic risk to the financial system.

But property owners, their lenders and others connected to commercial real estate remain under pressure.

“I think we are going to be living with a number of tough headlines for a bit longer,” said Mr. Paolone at J.P. Morgan. “These things just take a long time to play out.”

[sargento.algodon]

Fun fact sobre la actividad económica, de acuerdo con la imposición directa sobre rendimientos inmobiliarios, tanto como personas físicas (IRPF) como jurídicas (impuesto sobre Sociedades). Los ingresos por arrendamiento de un inmueble (vivienda, local comercial, explotación agraria u otros) se consideran como rendimientos de capital, inmobiliario en este caso. No obstante, pueden ser considerados procedentes de una actividad económica, lo cual tiene consecuencias tributarias, dado que tienen otro tratamiento en el calculo del ingreso neto tributable y permiten, en el caso de que el propietario sea una sociedad, no ser considerada una mera "sociedad patrimonial" sin actividad económica, con acceso sin restricciones a los incentivos fiscales que permite la ley del IS (y utilizar el régimen especial de diferimiento de fusiones, escisiones y demás operaciones, así como poder meter la cabeza en la consideración de "empresa familiar" que hace soportable el Impuesto sobre el Patrimonio).
Las condiciones para considerar que un sujeto, ya sea un individuo sujeto al IRPF o una sociedad, desarrolla una actividad económica están en el art. 27 de la Ley de IRPF y el 5 de la Ley del Impuesto sobre Sociedades: utilizar, al menos, una persona empleada con contrato laboral y jornada completa.
Antes de la reforma de 2014 se exigía también el requisito de un local exclusivamente destinado a llevar a cabo la gestión de la actividad, lo cual, en la jerga coloquial de los fiscalistas, se denominaba "tener caseta y perro" (sí, por lo que he podido comprobar, como todos los colectivos vapuleados por poderes fuera de nuestro control, tendemos al humor negro.) Ahora sólo se pide "perro" e incluso la jurisprudencia ha permitido que las sociedades mercantiles, dada su condición de ficción jurídica, pueden subcontratar esta función a otras sociedades, si son del mismo grupo mejor.
Sobre la "empresa familiar" en el Impuesto sobre el Patrimonio (y en su bastardo el impuesto temporal de solidaridad sobre las grandes fortunas) hablaré otro día.

Los fiscalistas llegamos siempre tarde, cuando los financieros ya han hecho, desecho y repartido y se acuerdan que Hacienda quiere su cuarto de carne. Cogemos lo que queda e  intentamos traducirlo.

Por otro lado, ojala los "primos" de America siguieran a la OCDE en todo. Tiraron por la calle de en medio en el intercambio de información, con el Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA) en 2010 y todos los acuerdos que se firmaron (ante la amenaza de retenciones del 30%) entre Estados Unidos y el resto de países. Luego siguió ese sendero la OCDE con el Common Reporting Standard (CRS) pero ni los datos ni los obligados (residentes fiscales para la OCDE y el CRS, todos los nacionales estadounidenses, estén donde estén, para el FATCA), son los mismos.
Aunque hayan intervenido en el Instrumento multilateral, también han tenido que poner su "peculiaridad" para considera cuando alguién no tiene derecho a aplicar un Convenio de Doble Imposición porque está abusando de él (la acción 6 de BEPS). Mientras la mayoría estaba de acuerdo con un Principle Purpose Test (“PPT”), los primos obligaron a introducir un Limitation of Benefits (“LOB”) de carácter más subjetivo (no tanto el qué, sino el quién).

[newclo]

Fun fact sobre la actividad económica, de acuerdo con la imposición directa sobre rendimientos inmobiliarios, tanto como personas físicas (IRPF) como jurídicas (impuesto sobre Sociedades). Los ingresos por arrendamiento de un inmueble (vivienda, local comercial, explotación agraria u otros) se consideran como rendimientos de capital, inmobiliario en este caso. No obstante, pueden ser considerados procedentes de una actividad económica, lo cual tiene consecuencias tributarias, dado que tienen otro tratamiento en el calculo del ingreso neto tributable y permiten, en el caso de que el propietario sea una sociedad, no ser considerada una mera "sociedad patrimonial" sin actividad económica, con acceso sin restricciones a los incentivos fiscales que permite la ley del IS (y utilizar el régimen especial de diferimiento de fusiones, escisiones y demás operaciones, así como poder meter la cabeza en la consideración de "empresa familiar" que hace soportable el Impuesto sobre el Patrimonio).
Las condiciones para considerar que un sujeto, ya sea un individuo sujeto al IRPF o una sociedad, desarrolla una actividad económica están en el art. 27 de la Ley de IRPF y el 5 de la Ley del Impuesto sobre Sociedades: utilizar, al menos, una persona empleada con contrato laboral y jornada completa.
Antes de la reforma de 2014 se exigía también el requisito de un local exclusivamente destinado a llevar a cabo la gestión de la actividad, lo cual, en la jerga coloquial de los fiscalistas, se denominaba "tener caseta y perro" (sí, por lo que he podido comprobar, como todos los colectivos vapuleados por poderes fuera de nuestro control, tendemos al humor negro.) Ahora sólo se pide "perro" e incluso la jurisprudencia ha permitido que las sociedades mercantiles, dada su condición de ficción jurídica, pueden subcontratar esta función a otras sociedades, si son del mismo grupo mejor.
Sobre la "empresa familiar" en el Impuesto sobre el Patrimonio (y en su bastardo el impuesto temporal de solidaridad sobre las grandes fortunas) hablaré otro día.

Los fiscalistas llegamos siempre tarde, cuando los financieros ya han hecho, desecho y repartido y se acuerdan que Hacienda quiere su cuarto de carne. Cogemos lo que queda e  intentamos traducirlo.

Por otro lado, ojala los "primos" de America siguieran a la OCDE en todo. Tiraron por la calle de en medio en el intercambio de información, con el Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA) en 2010 y todos los acuerdos que se firmaron (ante la amenaza de retenciones del 30%) entre Estados Unidos y el resto de países. Luego siguió ese sendero la OCDE con el Common Reporting Standard (CRS) pero ni los datos ni los obligados (residentes fiscales para la OCDE y el CRS, todos los nacionales estadounidenses, estén donde estén, para el FATCA), son los mismos.
Aunque hayan intervenido en el Instrumento multilateral, también han tenido que poner su "peculiaridad" para considera cuando alguién no tiene derecho a aplicar un Convenio de Doble Imposición porque está abusando de él (la acción 6 de BEPS). Mientras la mayoría estaba de acuerdo con un Principle Purpose Test (“PPT”), los primos obligaron a introducir un Limitation of Benefits (“LOB”) de carácter más subjetivo (no tanto el qué, sino el quién).

Muy valiosas aportaciones.
Por favor, no dejemos de enseñarnos !

Y mil gracias
(y a Cadavre, Derby...)

[newclo]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/japan-may-miss-bojs-price-target-2025-says-policymaker-nakamura-2024-06-06/

BOJ chief Ueda reaffirms resolve to trim bond buying

June 6 (Reuters) - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank should reduce its huge bond purchases as it moves toward an exit from massive monetary stimulus, reinforcing his resolve to steadily scale back its nearly $5-trillion balance sheet.
The remarks keep alive expectations the central bank could embark on a full-fledged tapering of its bond buying as early as its policy meeting next week.
In March, the BOJ made a landmark shift away from its radical monetary stimulus by ending eight years of negative interest rates and yield curve control (YCC), a policy that caps the benchmark 10-year yield around 0% with huge bond buying.
But it pledged to keep buying roughly 6 trillion yen worth of government bonds per month to stop the March policy shift triggering an abrupt spike in yields.
"We are still scrutinising market developments since the March decision," Ueda told parliament on Thursday. "As we proceed in exiting our massive monetary stimulus, it's appropriate to reduce" bond purchases, he said.
Ueda has repeatedly said the BOJ will eventually taper its huge bond buying, but offered no clues on how soon it will start doing so.
The BOJ currently has 750 trillion yen ($4.8 trillion) in assets on its balance sheet, nearly 1.3 times the size of Japan's economy, including government bonds.
Reuters Graphics
Reuters Graphics
On the question of further interest rate hikes, Ueda said the BOJ would move "cautiously to avoid making any big mistakes".
There was, however, less conviction from BOJ board member Toyoaki Nakamura about policy tightening amid concerns demand in Japan's economy remains fragile.
Speaking separately in the northern Japanese city of Sapporo, Nakamura, one of the board's more dovish members, said the economy may see inflation fall short of the central bank's 2% target next year if consumption stagnates.
"It's premature to raise interest rates now," Nakamura said, when asked about growing market expectations the BOJ would hike short-term borrowing costs again this year.
He also said the BOJ should not raise interest rates for the sole purpose of slowing the yen's declines, even though the weak yen was hurting consumption by increasing the cost of living.
"Sharp, one-sided declines in the yen are undesirable as they heighten uncertainty over the outlook," Nakamura told a news conference after meeting business leaders.
"But trying to deal with the weak yen with interest rate moves would have a negative impact on the economy," as higher borrowing costs would cool demand, he said.
Nakamura, a sole dissenter to the BOJ's decision to exit negative interest rates in March, said it was "hard to say" if the BOJ should taper its bond buying as soon as next week, suggesting he was not necessarily opposed to the idea.
"The BOJ shouldn't do anything that could cause shocks to the economy," and scrutinise how rising long-term borrowing costs could affect corporate activity, Nakamura said.
"But taking a long time to determine whether to taper would mean the BOJ would keep buying government bonds at the current pace. That would suggest Japan's economy is still in an abnormal state," Nakamura said.
Ueda has said the central bank will raise rates again if underlying inflation, which takes into account various price gauges, accelerates toward 2% as it projects.
Many market players expect the BOJ to raise rates again this year, though they are divided on whether it will happen in the third or fourth quarter.
($1 = 155.8400 yen)

[asustadísimos]

ASUSTADÍSIMO (CONT.).—

Al residuo popularcapitalista, para seguir ganando votaciones (bréxit, Trump, procés, Ayuso, Milei), solo le queda la guerra sucia permanente.

Pero esta última vuelta de tuerca del mierdismo («bendita mierda que es todo, que pone en valor mi mierda»), paradójicamente, es el mejor catalizador (acelerador) del proceso de transición.

Solo tiene la desventaja de que habrá más víctimas de las que debiera.

Expongámonos lo estrictamente necesario.