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[...] Ahí está el matiz que muestra el fascismo, extremismo de derechas o como lo queráis llamar. Están creando un enemigo público, un blanco de las iras, un chivo expiatorio en definitiva.
Excesses of cheap money era are provoking ‘creditor-on-creditor violence’Investors pay the price for flocking to so-called cov-lite leveraged loans with reckless abandonSerta Simmons Bedding had refinanced its existing debt through the issuance of covenant-light loans, but the deal came a cropper as revenue declined © Luke Sharrett/BloombergThe writer is a former investment banker and author of ‘Power Failure: The Rise and Fall of an American Icon’The end of some 13 years of nearly free money in financial markets has exposed excesses that seem utterly baffling in hindsight.Take, for instance, the tsunami of so-called cov-lite, or covenant-light, leveraged loans that investors flocked to with reckless abandon. At the end of 2023, the amount of these loans outstanding, which lack the typical protective covenants designed to be an early warning system for lenders, ballooned to $1.25tn, according to law firm Paul, Weiss.It was quite a party, especially for the issuers of the loans, who were able to borrow lots of money with minimal checks and balances. And now the lenders and investors who provided those loans are paying the price, in a phenomenon on Wall Street dubbed “creditor on creditor violence”.How apt. The carnage is nearly everywhere in the important leveraged loan market. Essentially, issuers of the loans with few or no covenants — often highly indebted companies on the verge of default or a bankruptcy — have been seeking to restructure their balance sheets to stave off financial calamity and sometimes to try to extract value for the benefit of equity holders at the expense of debtholders.These hijackings are often occurring with the consent of one group of creditors at the expense of another group of creditors. And there is very little the creditors who are losing out can do about it because they made the loans knowing their rights had been gutted from the outset. “Anticipating a borrower’s default, secured lenders have recently used aggressive legal tactics to extract value from other secured lenders,” said a Harvard Business School research paper in May.Take, for instance, the sad saga of Advent International’s 2012 buyout of the parent company of mattress makers Serta and Simmons. In 2016, the renamed Serta Simmons Bedding refinanced its existing debt through the issuance of $2.4bn of new cov-lite loans, allowing for a sweet $670mn dividend to be paid to shareholders.But by 2020, the deal had started to come a cropper due to declining revenue, thanks to the pandemic and growing competition from online mattress sales. In June 2020, the company reached an agreement with the majority of its secured lenders, including mutual funds Eaton Vance and Invesco, to exchange their debt for new “super secured” debt. The deal included a cash injection of $200mn into Serta to help it through pandemic stresses.Incredibly, other lenders, including the likes of sophisticated investors such as Apollo Global Management and TPG Angelo Gordon, the holders of $600mn Serta debt, claim they were not given the opportunity to exchange their first-lien secured debt on the same terms.As a result, they suddenly found themselves subordinated to the new debt. Serta Simmons filed for bankruptcy anyway. And Apollo and Angelo Gordon sued Advent and several of the mutual funds to overturn the deal.In an ironic twist, the wise-guy Wall Street types who are usually the ones inflicting the pain were accusing the normally more placid mutual funds of pulling a fast one designed to eviscerate their rights and subordinate their loans. But the bankruptcy judge in the case ruled against Apollo and Angelo Gordon, arguing that they should have known the risks of their cov-lite loans.That ruling came last year, but the Serta case is just one of many recent examples in which buyers of cov-lite loans are experiencing the consequences of their foolish investment decisions. “This is happening every day in the credit markets,” one hedge fund investor told me.One infuriating recent example involves Lionsgate Entertainment, ironically the studio behind a film series called The Hunger Games. It spun off its TV streaming business Starz this year through a merger with a special-purpose acquisition company. A bare majority of bondholders joined together to move their security to the Lionsgate level.Other creditors, who were not given the chance to participate in the deal, were left down at the Starz subsidiary, which is viewed as less creditworthy. The transaction benefited, among others, Steven Mnuchin, the former Treasury secretary, who is both a Lionsgate creditor and one of its biggest shareholders.The widespread filleting of what were typical creditor rights by other groups of creditors may be decried by those who lost out. But as with any period of euphoria in which investors lost their collective minds, a careful reading of the loan documents would have made unambiguously clear the risks of these idiotic investments.
Central banks warn over surge in global sovereign debt levelsUBS survey also finds reserve managers expect higher US deficit under a Donald Trump presidencyLast month the IMF urged the US to ‘urgently’ address its mounting government deficit © AFP via Getty ImagesCentral bank reserve managers are growing increasingly concerned about “unsustainable” levels of government debt, which they believe could drive up borrowing costs in a bumper year for elections.A global survey by UBS found that 37 per cent of central bank managers said that the risks from global sovereign debt levels were among their main concerns for the global economy this year, an increase from 14 per cent who worried about this last year.The heightened concern comes as government debt globally hits a record $91.4tn this year, according to the Institute of International Finance. Global debt as a proportion of GDP is soon poised to tip back over 100 per cent for the first time since the depths of the coronavirus pandemic.“The level of debt has been rising for a while now but so far we haven’t seen any real worry . . . It’s only really in the past six months that reserve manager concern has picked up . . . probably because we’re in an election year and the IMF has become more vocal,” said Max Castelli, head of global sovereign markets at UBS Asset Management. “Higher debt is seen as leading to higher borrowing costs . . . and there is a risk of crowding out private investment, which will weigh on growth,” he added. UBS surveyed 40 central bank reserve managers overseeing trillions of dollars of assets.Last month the IMF urged the US to “urgently” address its mounting government deficit. It took aim at the tax plans of both presidential candidates ahead of November’s election, and warned of higher financing costs and a growing risk to the smooth rollover of maturing debt.Nearly three-quarters of central banks surveyed by UBS said persistent inflation and a rise in long-term yields were big concerns for the global economy.A quarter predicted the US’s annual inflation rate would be between 3 and 4 per cent by June next year — significantly higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2 per cent target. US inflation was 3.3 per cent in May, down from a peak of 9.1 per cent in June 2022, with traders in swaps markets betting the Fed will start lowering interest rates in September or November. “There isn’t yet any willingness among politicians to start dealing with the sustainability of public debt,” said Castelli. “On one end we’ve had monetary policy focused on bringing down inflation and tightening but on the other end fiscal policy has remained loose, which makes it harder to bring inflation to target.”When asked about the economic impact of the upcoming US presidential election, three-quarters of reserve managers said the country would be likely to have higher public deficit levels under Donald Trump than President Joe Biden or another member of the Democratic party.The survey also found that 83 per cent said a Trump presidency would be more inflationary, driven by promises of tax cuts and high tariffs on imports from China. This would add more pressure to the US budget deficit, which is likely to hit $1.9tn this year, according to the Congressional Budget Office, or about 7 per cent of GDP.The proportion of reserve managers worried about the “weaponisation” of foreign exchange reserves has also risen sharply this year after the decision to use profits on Russia’s frozen assets to finance Ukraine, weakening the haven status of foreign exchange reserves for central banks.“There is quite a lot of concern about the move from freezing assets to confiscating assets,” said Castelli. “Do we see any sign of a weakening of the dollar in the global financial architecture? The answer is no. But we see a slowdown of allocation to the renminbi.”
Argentina halts monetary base expansion to lower inflation, says ministerArgentina's Economy Minister Luis Caputo gestures during a business meeting hosted by the American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham), in Buenos Aires, Argentina March 12, 2024. REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian/File Photo Purchase Licensing RightsBUENOS AIRES, July 13 (Reuters) - Argentina will cease expanding its monetary base as part of the government's campaign to combat inflation, Economy Minister Luis Caputo said on messaging platform X on Saturday."From now on the amount of money remains the same or is reduced if the central bank (BCRA) sells dollars" in the official exchange market known as the MULC, Caputo wrote."If the BCRA buys dollars in the MULC, the issuance of equivalent pesos will be sterilized with the sale of equivalent dollars in the cash with liquidation (CCL) market," a market where dollar transactions are settled in cash, Caputo wrote.The policy will go into effect on Monday.The announcement comes after official data published on Friday showed a five-month streak of slowing inflation ended in June when inflation was higher than in May.Since libertarian President Javier Milei took power late last year, inflation has slowed dramatically in Argentina, decelerating from 25.5% in December to 4.2% in May. June's figure was 4.6%.
Argentina to Sell Dollars In Parallel FX Market, Caputo SaysEconomy minister seeks ‘deepening of the monetary framework’Measure stands to further impede rebuilding of reservesThe Central Bank of Argentina in Buenos Aires.Photographer: Sarah Pabst/BloombergArgentina’s central bank will sell US dollars in the country’s parallel foreign exchange markets starting Monday, a move Economy Minister Luis Caputo called “a deepening of the monetary framework.”Caputo and President Javier Milei began to detail a new strategy Saturday that seeks to contain the widening gap between Argentina’s official exchange rate and parallel rates traded in financial markets. While the official peso rate is 919 per dollar due to currency controls, one of the key parallel rates closed Friday at 1,405 per dollar.Price increases on a monthly basis began to mildly accelerate in June for the first time since Milei took office Dec. 10, according to government figures released Friday. Annual inflation at 272% remains one of the highest in the world and well into crisis territory.Caputo, who is at the Sun Valley Conference in Idaho with Milei, said the monetary authority will sell dollars in one of the parallel FX markets, known as the blue chip swap or contado con liquidacion, to offset the emission of pesos from purchasing dollars at the official exchange rate.“If the central bank purchases dollars in the official exchange market, the equivalent emission of pesos will be sterilized by the sale of equivalent dollars in the contado con liquidacion market,” Caputo wrote in a series of posts on X.The steps would likely exacerbate ongoing market concerns that the government is letting the official exchange rate become too overvalued by maintaining strict currency controls. They would also further impede the central bank’s ability to accumulate foreign reserves needed to lift the controls at some point, and eventually repay $44 billion to the International Monetary Fund as well as return to international debt markets.Government officials already project the central bank will lose $3 billion of reserves in the third quarter. After swiftly building back depleted reserves left by the previous administration earlier in the year, the central bank more recently has struggled to build reserves at the same pace as exporters sell less abroad, voicing concern that the currency is too overvalued.In a television interview with LN+ earlier Saturday, Milei pledged to keep battling inflation while maintaining a fiscal balance.“We need to get those pesos out of the street, and it is going to make the exchange gap fall,” Milei said, referring to the market intervention.
Starmer to host EU leaders’ summit delayed by SunakImproving relations on security and trade at heart of Thursday’s Blenheim Palace gatheringSir Keir Starmer will host the leaders of around 50 countries at Blenheim Palace for a one-day European Political Community summit © Albert Knapp/AlamySir Keir Starmer has returned from a Nato summit in Washington to prepare for his second step on to the world stage — hosting a European forum in Britain that his predecessor Rishi Sunak hoped would not happen.On Thursday Starmer will try to “reset” Britain’s strained post-Brexit relations with Europe when the prime minister convenes over 45 leaders at Blenheim Palace — Sir Winston Churchill’s birthplace — for a one-day European Political Community summit.The EPC, the brainchild of French President Emmanuel Macron, is often seen in diplomatic circles as a grandiose talking shop that brings together EU countries and other states including the UK and Turkey.Liz Truss signed Britain up during her short stint as prime minister and went to its first summit in Prague in 2022.For Sunak, who lost last week’s UK election, the prospect of hosting the gathering was a major distraction as he prepared to face voters and he repeatedly delayed setting a date for it. “There were lots of things going on and there was some uncertainty about whether it was going to happen,” said one ally of the former prime minister. “It only happened because the French pushed it very hard.”Starmer, who will host the French president for dinner at the 18th century Blenheim Palace after the summit, will be grateful Macron insisted.“It’s a wonderful opportunity for Keir Starmer,” said Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, a UK think-tank. “He’ll have a lot of European leaders in a room. The timing could not have been more fortuitous.”British officials say Starmer will use the Blenheim Palace event to set out his hopes for improved UK-EU relations, even if, as Grant notes, there is a “slight niggling worry that he doesn’t know what he wants to do”.The prime minister has made clear that he sees a UK-EU security pact as a building block for better relations, but his insistence that he will not take Britain back into the EU, single market, customs union, or the free movement regime is a huge obstacle.He will be seeking a deal to stop food being delayed at borders due to a shortage of vets as well as mutual recognition of professional qualifications. Rachel Reeves, chancellor, has said Labour might try to align Britain’s rules on chemicals with those of the bloc.But the EU has always resisted anything it regards as “cherry picking” from the benefits of the single market and is expected to demand a high price for any deal that significantly improves the UK’s access to EU markets.European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen has called for a “reset” in relations, though the Commission itself is broadly satisfied with the trade deal made with Boris Johnson’s government in 2020. There is very little appetite in Brussels for a rewrite of the agreement when it comes up for review in 2026.Eric Mamer, the Commission’s chief spokesperson, said this week that it was for London to make the first move. Brussels had an “open mind” on new agreements with the UK but the current arrangements were based on a “series of red lines set by the UK”, he said.The EPC agenda conveniently feeds into Starmer’s plan to use security as a springboard for better relations, with a heavy focus on the war in Ukraine.Talks include a plenary session on EU security followed by three breakout groups on migration, defending democracy, and energy and connectivity, alongside strawberries and cream and around 800 scones. “I said I would change the way the UK engages with our European partners, working collaboratively to drive forward progress on these generational challenges,” Starmer said ahead of the meeting. “That work starts at the European Political Community meeting on Thursday.”The idea of using Britain’s strengths in the security field — including its strong military and intelligence services — to prise open better post-Brexit relations with the EU had also been considered by the previous Conservative government.Civil servants have dusted down proposals for closer UK-EU relations on security that had been drawn up more than 18 months ago, before attention on Whitehall turned to work on the Windsor framework, a deal to settle a Brexit trading dispute in Northern Ireland.Starmer said during his visit to Washington that he had discussed the idea of a “formal mechanism” for UK-EU security co-operation during bilateral meetings at the Nato summit, and that a plan to repair post-Brexit damage had been well-received by allies.Joe Biden, US president, told Starmer: “I kind of see you guys as the knot tying the transatlantic alliance together, the closer you are with Europe.”The idea of the UK as a link for Washington between a free-trading US and a more statist EU continental model fell apart after the Brexit vote in 2016.“There was a sense after Brexit that the UK has become too inward-looking, was not as interested as it once was in its place on the global stage,” Starmer said at the end of the Nato summit. “The UK is confident, is back.”Turning to his plan for deeper relations with Brussels, Starmer told the Financial Times: “We can do more work with our EU partners when it comes to security. I think that’s good for us, and good for them.”The UK’s new posture will involve increasing trade and investment with international partners, as well as deeper co-operation on tackling climate change, Starmer said. Earlier UK Defence Secretary John Healey said that the UK would seek to join more EU military programmes, as he warned the world was facing “a decade or more” of Russian aggression.Britain is already part of one programme in Pesco, the EU’s framework for defence co-operation, to ease the transportation of military hardware across the continent. Healey declined to say which further programmes the UK was interested in joining. He stressed that while Britain wants to secure an overarching security pact with the bloc, such an agreement is not required for closer integration with its defence programmes, or deals with member states. He ruled out Britain joining a European defence force.Labour is eyeing a security deal with Germany by the end of the year, diplomats said, with Starmer looking to meet the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the European football championships final in Berlin on Sunday to talk further about the scope of any deal.Starmer has joked that England only wins men’s football trophies when Labour is in power — the last time was in 1966. A victory for Gareth Southgate’s team on Sunday would be another fortuitous piece of timing for the new prime minister as he introduces himself to the world.
Los colosos petroleros ya atisban su ocaso: BP prevé que la demanda toque techo en 2025La firma británica, una de las mayores energéticas de Europa, adelanta incluso el pico de consumo respecto a las últimas previsiones de la AIEEl fin del petróleo no será abrupto: los carburantes seguirán calentando la atmósfera durante años, mucho más de los deseables para frenar en seco el cambio climático. Son, sin embargo, cada vez más las señales que apuntan a un pico cada vez más próximo en la demanda global. Tan cercano como en 2025, según las últimas previsiones de la petrolera británica BP, uno de los mayores colosos del sector en Europa. Un terremoto está en marcha, y tiene —tendrá— a las compañías fósiles como grandes damnificadas.El pronóstico de BP, publicado esta semana, es incluso más agresivo que el de la Agencia Internacional de la Energía (AIE), que hace justo un mes apuntaba a finales de esta década como el momento en el que el consumo mundial de crudo alcanzará su máximo para empezar a bajar a partir de entonces. Aquella proyección desencadenó las iras de los petroleros, con un enfrentamiento abierto entre la voz de los productores clásicos —el cartel de la OPEP, que no quiere ni oír hablar de pico de demanda y que lleva años embarcado en una política de recortes de producción para tratar de posponer lo inexorable: una caída de precios a largo plazo— y la propia Agencia, una suerte de think tank energético de los países importadores.A partir del año que viene, las cifras de BP —como las de prácticamente todos los organismos internacionales que se atreven a hacer proyecciones económicas a muy largo plazo— toman caminos divergentes, siempre con un patrón común: el de caída. En el escenario base, el consumo mundial de crudo se sitúa en el entorno de los 75 millones de barriles diarios en 2050, la cuarta parte menos que hoy. En el de cero emisiones netas, en el que se acelera el reemplazo del crudo por las renovables y se toman todas las medidas necesarias para embridar la crisis climática —con una electrificación masiva del transporte por carretera y de las industrias que aún queman crudo y con una conversión a hidrógeno verde de aquellos usos en los que la conversión a electricidad no es posible— la demanda se desploma hasta el entorno de los 25 o 30 millones de barriles diarios en el ecuador del siglo. Un 70% menos que hoy, que se dice pronto.El tránsito del vehículo de combustión al eléctrico es clave, tanto para que la demanda mundial de petróleo toque techo el año que viene como para que pique a la baja a partir de entonces. En el escenario base, sin embargo, la caída en la demanda de carburantes de automoción (tanto para coches como para camiones, un elemento que también pesa mucho en la demanda) se ve compensada con los usos del crudo como materia prima, “especialmente en el sector petroquímico, por el mayor consumo de plásticos, textiles y otros materiales” que tienen el petróleo en la base de su proceso de producción. BP cree, con todo, que las mayores tasas de reciclaje y las prohibiciones de los plásticos de un solo uso acabarán haciendo mella.Pese a la paulatina pérdida de peso del crudo en la matriz energética mundial, los especialistas de la petrolera británica avisan de que seguirá jugando un “papel principal” hasta al menos 2035. “Tanto en el escenario base como en el de cero emisiones netas”, aclara. La gran diferencia es que en el segundo caso la caída es muy sustancial a partir de ese momento, mientras que en el primero la curva bajista es mucho más tendida. En ambos casos, las emisiones caen en consonancia: el menor uso del combustible rey en el transporte se traduce en un daño menguante sobre el medioambiente.Por geografías, las diferencias también son sustanciales. Hasta 2035, el grueso de la caída es en las economías avanzadas, importadoras netas de crudo salvo en casos contados: Estados Unidos, Canadá o Noruega. Continuará, así, la tendencia de los últimos años, en los que la demanda petrolera ya ha empezado a caer. En el resto del mundo, para que la demanda empiece a mermar significativamente habrá que esperar hasta mediados de la década que viene. A partir de entonces, sin embargo, los descensos serán generalizados y muy significativos.