PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Verano 2024

[saturno]

How Likely Is It That The US Replaces Zelensky In The First Half Of Next Year?
Andrew Korybko
Jun 22, 2024
v/EN https://korybko.substack.com/p/how-likely-is-it-that-the-us-replaces
v/FR https://lesakerfrancophone.fr/les-etats-unis-vont-ils-remplacer-zelensky-au-premier-semestre-2025

Zelensky’s only use right now is to legitimize radical policies and he’ll then be cast aside once he’s done what’s needed of him, though it’s unclear when that’ll be since everything depends on whether NATO conventionally intervenes in Ukraine.


(del Saker)
Andrew Korybko es un analista politico eéstadounidense, establecido en Moscou, espécializado en las relaciones de la estratégia US en Africa y Eurasia, las Routas de la seda chinas y la Guerra híbrida

[pollo]

https://www.expansion.com/economia/2024/06/28/667dad7f468aeb4f708b45a2.html

https://www.expansion.com/catalunya/2024/06/27/667d3682468aeb1f318b4588.html

Saludos.

Es que ya digo, todo el tema de pisos turísticos es un negocio sin absolutamente ningún requisito legal que se le exige a cualquier negocio. No me extraña que los hoteles estén molestos, ya no solo por la competencia, sino porque tienen privilegios.

¿No lo ponen ellos mismos? Patronal. Pues a pagar y a cumplir la ley como todo el mundo.

[sudden and sharp]

Ayuso busca votos para sobrevivir. Como todos los políticos, sin excepción. Y de la CAM hay que decir que está abierta a todos. Si llegara a ser la más mejor... no hay demasiado problema. Si hay una CC.AA. donde cualquier español es first class, esa es Madrid. (O en el top five, como mínimo, como dicen ahora.) Me voy a repasar lo de la libertad negativa... que ahí sí podrías tener razón. Aprovecho para decir que yo no tengo por qué defender a Ayuso, al PP madrileño; lo hago porque veo críticas desaforadas... que no queda claro sin no son antimadrileñas sin más. (También le han dado a Lobato, sin merecerlo. Por cierto ha apoyado a la bruja en lo de la nueva financiación "singularizada".)

Lo vamos viendo.

!!!Amos anda!!!  En Madrid tratan igual a un inmigrante nacional que a un inmigrante extranjero. Van a tratar igual a un inmigrante llegado de León que a un inmigrante llegado de Guayaquil. Solo te miran por lo que te puedan "sacar". Ya te digo yo que alquilan antes un piso a una familia de Guayaquil con dos sueldos, que a uno de León con uno solo. Ya sabes, la ley-de-la-oferta-y-la-demanda, el libre-mercao y el-que-venga-detrás-que-arree. Y no es un tema personal. Son negocios.

La única diferencia es que los inmigrantes nacionales tienen más margen de maniobra que los extranjeros para fajarse de la violencia de Los Poderosos  (los nacionales conocen sus derechos y no tienen miedo a denunciarles)

1. Si relees tu propia negrita (en azul) comprobarás que no sabes leer.
2. Si relees mi negrita (en rojo) comprobarás que te contradices.






----------
Addendum: Ahí, en tu barrio de Valdebebas no habrá mucho inmigrante, habrá tal vez, expats latinos muy pudientes. (Todos sois muy pudientes en Valdebebas, no os mezcláis con el resto de nosotros, la plebe. No sé de qué te quejas.)

[Yupi_Punto]

Pues eso, la IA monitorizando el juego imitando la economía real, ve que los precios de los pisos y de los alquileres suben tanto que nadie es capaz ni de comprar ni de alquilar.

Así que lo que hace la muy cabrona es prohíbe el alquiler, pero totalmente.

No se puede alquilar a ni Cristo. Eso produce un colapso de los precios de la vivienda y mágicamente la gente puede volver a comprar casas.
https://forocoches.com/foro/showthread.php?t=10011730

“For the love of god I can not fix high rent,” wrote one player in April. “Anything I do re-zone, de-zone, more jobs, less jobs, taxes high or low, wait time in game. Increased education, decreased education. City services does nothing. It seems anything I try does nothing.”

https://www.wired.com/story/cities-skylines-ii-found-a-solution-for-high-rents-removing-landlords/#:~:text=For%20months%2C%20players%20have%20been,can't%3A%20removing%20landlords.&text=The%20rent%20is%20too%20damn%20high%2C%20even%20in%20video%20games

[asustadísimos]

[Idealista parece haber sido valorada en 2.900 millones de euros, de modo que Telefónica sería solo 7 idealistas, y Repsol, 6.

No se puede ir por ahí pensando que Idealista «vale mucho porque es una lavadora de cerebros» al servicio de mezquinos intereses del propietariado —cuya naturaleza es anticapitalista—. Es todo mucho más sencillo.

Con todos los respetos, creo que a Idealista sus asesores fiscales pudieran haberle colocado la típica revalorización contable mágica, generando plusvalías de fuente pseudointerna para compensar minusvalías en otras 'himbersiones' o 'falsocapitalizar' alguna sociedad de mera tenencia, esperando a que escampe; en lugar de dar las bases imponibles negativas o la subcapitalización, con dos pantalones, lo que es saneado de verdad y procapitalista.

En los medios de desinformación solo habría mera cancamusa —gran palabra— de ganchos para engatusar primos y anestesiar mutilados, porque no hay buena expectativa alguna que descontar, sino todo lo contrario. ¿O no es verdad que, en EEUU, el 'commercial' está en crisis y está contagiándola al 'residential', y que la tristeza inmobiliaria de EEUU está llegando a Europa?

¿Acaso en la operación de aparente 'venta' de Idealista, ¿no hay «corre, corre»?

Será cuando las ranas críen pelo, cuando portales locales como Idealista compitan de verdad con Airbnb en el negocio anticapitalista de los 'alojamientos de corta duración' y, sobre todo, en el negocio, también anticapitalista, del humo empresarial cotizado.
 
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/topics/es/article/20231127STO15403/alojamientos-de-corta-duracion-nuevas-reglas-para-fomentar-la-transparencia

La distinción entre corta y larga duración es engañosa y arbitraria. El verdadero deslinde es entre hotel y vivienda.

Pero lo peor es que se confunde 'alojamientos' y 'huéspedes' con 'alquileres' y 'arrendatarios'.

Llamemos a las cosas por su nombre. Hagamos como cuando los ganchos del timo confunden aposta accesibilidad y asequibilidad —gracias, Derby—, al traducir 'affordability' como si fuera 'accessibility'; confusión muy de 'maestro que enseña a los niños la gramática yendo a las casas', pero maestro malo en el peor sentido del término.

Dejemos de caer en las trampas de los mareadores de perdices. Hay que pensar en asequibilidad, alojamiento de corta duración, huésped y hotel.]

[el malo]

Pues eso, la IA monitorizando el juego imitando la economía real, ve que los precios de los pisos y de los alquileres suben tanto que nadie es capaz ni de comprar ni de alquilar.

Así que lo que hace la muy cabrona es prohíbe el alquiler, pero totalmente.

No se puede alquilar a ni Cristo. Eso produce un colapso de los precios de la vivienda y mágicamente la gente puede volver a comprar casas.
https://forocoches.com/foro/showthread.php?t=10011730

“For the love of god I can not fix high rent,” wrote one player in April. “Anything I do re-zone, de-zone, more jobs, less jobs, taxes high or low, wait time in game. Increased education, decreased education. City services does nothing. It seems anything I try does nothing.”

https://www.wired.com/story/cities-skylines-ii-found-a-solution-for-high-rents-removing-landlords/#:~:text=For%20months%2C%20players%20have%20been,can't%3A%20removing%20landlords.&text=The%20rent%20is%20too%20damn%20high%2C%20even%20in%20video%20games

Si prohibes el alquiler particular te acabas de quitar de un plumazo la especulación.

Esto forzaría a Universidades a dar alojamiento a estudiantes, a empresas a proveer de alojamiento a sus empleados temporales, a los ayuntamientos a tener un parque de viviendas para usos sociales, funcionarios, etc.

Igual este golpe de timón no es tan descabellado. El problema es que habría que probarlo en una ciudad pequeña que fuera fácilmente recuperable en caso de que la situación acabara en Mad Max (se me ocurren Ciudad Real, Zamora, Teruel..),  pero en estas ciudades no hay problema de vivienda por lo que sería difícil extrapolar a capitales más grandes.

Igual no es tan mala idea que llegue un alcalde loco y la líe parda prohibiendo el alquiler.. si tenemos un Marinaleda, por qué no esto 

[Derby]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/jun/30/the-baby-bust-how-britains-falling-birthrate-is-creating-alarm-in-the-economy

The baby bust: how Britain’s falling birthrate is creating alarm in the economy


Babies in a hospital nursery. In 2022 the fertility rate across England and Wales fell to 1.49 children per woman. Photograph: Randy Duchaine/Alamy

The baby bust: how Britain’s falling birthrate is creating alarm in the economy
Costs, the climate crisis and choice are all factors in a demographic revolution presenting huge challenges for government

Having children has become an unaffordable luxury for many of her generation, says Vanessa, a 35-year-old project manager living in Brighton.

“My friends who managed to start a family, without exception, all received large sums of money from their parents to get on the property ladder. For those of us not fortunate enough, we are trapped in the rental market, largely with insecure, poorly paid employment.”

Vanessa’s outlook is also clouded by concerns about the climate crisis, crumbling public services and the “plummeting mental health of young people”, she says. “Put these into the mix and you have a perfect storm for declining birthrates.”

Her decision is replicated worldwide. The number of women of child-bearing age is in long-term decline across Europe, parts of Asia, South America and the US, a situation made worse by the steep drop in the number of women, and their partners, who either want or are able to have children.(...)

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-30/china-s-slump-in-home-sales-slows-after-top-cities-ease-policy

China’s Slump in Home Sales Slows After Cities Ease Policy

Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou announced easing measures
China seen on track to undershoot growth target for 2024

The downturn in China’s residential real estate sector slowed further in June, following the government’s efforts to put a floor under the housing market in some of its biggest cities.

The value of new-home sales from the 100 biggest real estate companies dropped 17% from a year earlier to 439 billion yuan ($60 billion), compared with a 34% decline in May, according to preliminary data from China Real Estate Information Corp.



The slower fall came after three of the nation’s biggest cities — Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou — followed through with easing measures in late May, slashing down-payments and allowing cheaper mortgages, after the central government unveiled a broad real estate rescue package. The capital Beijing became the fourth of the so-called tier-1 cities to follow suit in recent days.

The turn in the trajectory of new-home sales may offer some relief for China’s economy, which is on track to undershoot the government’s official 5% growth target for this year, Bloomberg Economics estimated this week. The property crash has hindered growth despite a flurry of support measures, even as other economic gauges including industrial production have steadied.

The loosening has boosted new-home sales in southern Shenzhen and Guangzhou into June, with average daily new-home units sold in the first 25 days up more than 30% from May, data from China Index Holdings showed. It has led to mild gains in Shanghai, with sales up 11%.

Still, housing-support steps to date have failed to halt a broader slide. Two credit ratings firms recently lowered their forecasts for China’s property market, with S&P Global Ratings’ onshore unit and Fitch Ratings now forecasting annual property sales to drop at least 15% from last year.

Wall Street economists are predicting new measures and additional funding in Beijing’s bid to shore up the market, after top policymakers urged officials in a cabinet meeting earlier this month to keep an “open mind” over policies to reduce housing inventory and be more “creative and bold” in rolling out supportive measures.

Cash-strapped developers, many in default for more than a year, are counting on a sales revival to persuade debt holders and fight off their liquidation.

Earlier this week, Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. was given more weeks to work on its debt restructuring plan by a Hong Kong court, but was also warned this might be the company’s last chance. Dexin China Holdings Co. last week became the latest builder to be ordered to liquidate by a Hong Kong court.

Funding for developers has stayed weak since the government drew up a “white list” of property firms that are eligible for loans late last year. A broad gauge of financing for developers, including loans, bonds and proceeds from home sales, continued to shrink heavily in May, down 24% from a year earlier, latest official data showed.

Investors are yet to be convinced that the housing slump has reached a turning point. Shares of Chinese developers have slid further into a bear market, dropping more than 25% from a mid-May high.

[sudden and sharp]

¿Quién ha sido?   

[Derby]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/australia-home-prices-keep-climbing-tight-supply-2024-06-30/

Australia home prices keep climbing on tight supply


A general view of a construction site where many tall apartment buildings have been constructed in recent years, in Parramatta, Sydney, August 14, 2023. REUTERS/Stella Qiu/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights

SYDNEY, July 1 (Reuters) - Australian home prices rose in June for a seventeenth straight month, as tight supply outweighed demand-side pressures of high interest rates, a cost of living squeeze and tight lending conditions, property consultant CoreLogic said on Monday.

Data from CoreLogic showed national home prices climbed 0.7% in June from May when it gained 0.8%. Prices are up 8.0% on a year earlier.

“The persistent growth comes despite an array of downside risks," CoreLogic Research Director Tim Lawless said in a statement, pointing to the country's cost of living squeeze, interest rates at a 12-year high, housing afforability issues, and strict credit policies from lenders.

"The housing market resilience comes back to tight supply levels which are keeping upwards pressure on values," he said.

Across state capital cities, monthly prices rose the fastest in Perth, up 2.0%, while in Adelaide they increased 1.7%, and in Brisbane they were up 1.2%. Prices in Melbourne fell 0.2%.

Demand-side factors were influential in the state price moves, "especially with interstate migration rates tracking well above average in Western Australia, Queensland and previously South Australia", CoreLogic said.

Australian consumer inflation accelerated to a six-month high in May, while a key measure of core prices rose for a fourth month, according to data out last week, prompting markets to hike chances of another interest rate hike this year.

The Reserve Bank of Australia has held interest rates steady at 4.35% for five straight meetings.

[Derby]

https://www.cityam.com/market-prices-vulnerable-to-sharp-correction-bank-of-england-warns/

‘Market prices vulnerable to sharp correction,’ Bank of England warns


The Bank of England released its financial stability report today.

The Bank of England has warned that investors are only focusing on good economic news, sending up asset prices and raising the risk of a “sharp correction” in the future.

In its latest financial stability report, the Bank noted that risk premia had been “compressed for some time” but, in some markets, “have tightened even further” over the past few months.

This suggests that investors are increasingly willing to make risky bets, which Bank officials found particularly concerning given the range of global risks that remain.

The Bank pointed to the AI-driven rally in US equities, which has pushed US stock markets to record levels. The excess return on US equities relative to government bonds has increased to the levels seen in the early 2000s, just before the Dot Com Bubble.

Equity prices have also increased in the UK and EU since the Bank’s last financial stability report in December.

“The adjustment to the higher interest rates environment is not yet complete and markets prices remain vulnerable to a sharp correction,” the report warned.

The Bank drew attention to a couple of risks which could knock markets, including the “material” risks in the US commercial real estate market.

Political factors were also flagged as a danger. “Policy uncertainty associated with upcoming elections globally has increased,” the Bank added, warning that it could increase existing sovereign debt pressures and risks associated with geopolitical fragmentation.

If there were to be a sharp correction in asset prices, it would be much more difficult for businesses to refinance maturing debt, the report said.

Existing vulnerabilities in market-based finance, such as among private equity firms, could also amplify the correction if leveraged market participants face large losses.

Despite the Bank’s concerns about global financial markets, the domestic situation remains fairly stable reflecting an improving economic outlook.

Although mortgage arrears are expected to increase slightly over the coming months, they will remain well below financial crisis levels. Measures of corporate debt vulnerability have also fallen in recent months.

“Household and corporate borrowers as a whole have been resilient to higher interest rates,” the report said.

However, the Bank still warned that there were dangers. Just over 3 million people, around 35 per cent of borrowers, are currently on mortgage rates below three per cent.

These mortgages are due to reprice between now and the end of 2026, leaving households paying around £180 a month more.

The report confirmed that the banking sector is strong enough to support households even if the economy does worse than expected.

[Derby]

https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/06/26/israel-annexation-west-bank-bezalel-smotrich-netanyahu/

The Man Leading Israel’s Not-So-Quiet Annexation of the West Bank

Bezalel Smotrich aims to bankrupt the Palestinian Authority and cement Israeli rule.


Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (R) and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich attend the weekly cabinet meeting at the Defense Ministry in Tel Aviv on Jan. 7. RONEN ZVULUN / POOL / AFP

For Bezalel Smotrich, the head of Israel’s far-right Religious Zionism party, these are heady times. While the rest of Israel is preoccupied with the fighting in Gaza, the fate of the hostages held by Hamas, and Hezbollah’s pummeling of the country’s north, Smotrich has been realizing his dream of creating the conditions that will bring about Israel’s annexation of the West Bank. Indeed, the war has in many ways facilitated his plans.

The word “annexation” is rarely, if ever, uttered by Smotrich—who serves as a senior member of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet. Without a shred of doubt about the Jews’ God-given right to the land between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea, he regards the West Bank not as territory to be added to the State of Israel but as an inheritance that need only be claimed. As he told the Haaretz newspaper in an interview over seven years ago, a Palestinian state would be tantamount to partitioning Israel; absorbing the West Bank into Israel is “unification.” To talk about Israel annexing the West Bank would be like telling the North it was annexing the South after the Civil War in the United States.

In any case, the legal formalities involved in annexation are less important to Smotrich than creating the conditions that will bring it about. To do that, he is employing a two-pronged strategy that on the one side involves changing laws and creating a settler-friendly bureaucracy and on the other helping to foment violence and anarchy in the West Bank. As Smotrich has indicated many times, the signal event in the process of “unification” will be the collapse of the Palestinian Authority (PA), leaving Israel with no choice but to fill the vacuum and reassert control over the entire West Bank.

Smotrich’s main job in the government is finance minister, a powerful post that he has used to implement his policies. But he has a second and, for his purposes, far more important post as minister in the defense ministry, a job he was promised by Netanyahu when the current government was formed at the end of 2022. Smotrich is in effect minister of settlements with powers that extend, to a degree, over the lives of West Bank Palestinians as well.

Since it captured the territory in 1967, Israel has exerted control of the West Bank through a military occupation. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF), through its Civil Administration, has been responsible for the administration of justice and other civilian matters in the 60 percent of the West Bank not under the jurisdiction of the PA. The Civil Administration has long favored settler interests over Palestinians, but officially it remained a part of the military and made at least some effort to consider Palestinian needs. All that changed in February 2023, when a new Settlements Administration was formed with broad powers—including the authority to expropriate Palestinian land, to approve housing construction in settlements, to condemn Palestinian construction as illegal, and to retroactively authorize settlements that were built without government approval, popularly known as “outposts.”

As a civilian body, the Settlements Administration’s job is to promote the interests of Israeli citizens—which means the settlers. And the chief interest of the settlers is speeding up the pace of building and expanding settlements. More than that, the transfer of authority from the military to civilians amounts to a quiet and creeping de facto annexation. “It will be easier to swallow in the international and legal context so that they won’t say that we are doing annexation here,” Smotrich said in leaked remarks from a June 9 meeting with supporters, first published in the New York Times.

In recent weeks, Smotrich has cemented his control further, having Hillel Roth, a resident of the extremist settlement Yitzhar, made deputy head of the Civil Administration with authority over a grab bag of areas ranging from building regulations and water infrastructure to parks and outdoor public bathing locations.

Control over public bathing may seem like a minor business on par with dog catching. But it is not: A big part of the contest for the future of the West Bank is about demographics—increasing the settler population—and control of land. The Settlements Administration is meant to give the settlers the tools to do that more effectively. The natural springs that dot the West Bank serve Palestinian farmers as well as Israeli bathers and constitute one of many battlegrounds for control of the land and its resources.

But Smotrich’s campaign isn’t limited to the niceties of accelerated planning approvals: He has also used his powers to turn a blind eye to construction by settlers. A document obtained by the New York Times summarizing a March meeting of the IDF’s Central Command, which is responsible for the West Bank, warned that enforcement of construction regulations for settlers had all but disappeared since the establishment of the Settlements Administration; even court orders are ignored. Less than one-tenth of the 395 recorded cases of illegal construction last year resulted in a building being taken down, and nearly all of those involved a single case at an illegal outpost, the memo said. And that probably understates the extent of the problem. Because so many inspectors have been called up for reserve duty due to the war in Gaza, suspected violations are not even being investigated. Violators, the memo said, feel free to act knowing that there is no accountability.

The lawlessness among settlers in the West Bank has not been confined to illegal building. The most extreme of the settlers have taken advantage of a government dominated by the far right and the military’s preoccupation with fighting in Gaza to engage in unprecedented vigilantism. The U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) counted 968 attacks on Palestinians involving serious vandalism and injury in the months since the war began on Oct. 7, 2023. There have been only 10 confirmed cases of Palestinians killed in these incidents (compared with more than 500 in clashes with the military), but the pace if far faster than at any time since OCHA began keeping records in 2008—and the real number is likely higher.

While some of the settler violence has been about vengeance following Palestinian attacks, much of it has been about land. Especially in the Jordan Valley and in the area south of the city of Hebron, extremist settlers have seized control of large swaths of Palestinian pasture land by setting up roadblocks, erecting fences, and harassing shepherds. In many cases, whole communities of Palestinian herders have been forced to abandon their homes.

To be sure, Smotrich is not responsible for policing settler violence. The responsibility for that is shared by his far-right colleague, Itamar Ben-Gvir, who as minister of national security oversees the police—and by the military.

The police have never made much of an effort to investigate settler violence, but under Ben-Gvir all pretense of enforcement has been dropped. Ben-Gvir has been seeking, with a large degree of success, to politicize the Israel Police, pressing it to crack down on anti-government protesters while demanding that it stand aside when right-wing extremists attack trucks carrying aid to Gaza. In the West Bank, Ben-Gvir’s policies have given violent settlers carte blanche. A recent investigation by the New York Times found that of the three dozen cases it had looked into since Oct. 7 involving crimes ranging from theft of livestock to assault, not a single one had led to a suspect being charged.

As for the military, soldiers have been busy fighting in Gaza and on the northern border, as well as cracking down on Palestinian violence in the West Bank. The military says it doesn’t have the manpower to stop vigilante settlers. But the truth is, many of the commanders and soldiers in the regular and reserve military units stationed in the West Bank are sympathetic to the settlers; often they are settlers themselves. Moreover, after the Hamas attacks of Oct. 7, some 5,500 settlers were called up for reserve duty to protect their own communities. Many have taken advantage of the arms and uniforms they were issued to go beyond their official duties to set up roadblocks and attack Palestinians.

An incident near the Palestinian town of Aqraba in April captures the current state of lawlessness. Following the killing of a 14-year-old Israeli by Palestinians, settlers rampaged through the town and surrounding area, killing two residents (two more were killed later). The military initially said there were no soldiers present, although a Haaretz investigation said troops were there and didn’t intervene. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant later issued warrants putting five settlers into administrative detention—prison without trial—for periods ranging from three to six months. In response, Ben-Gvir railed against “Gallant’s persecution against the settlers.” The police have arrested no one.

For Smotrich, however, the collapse of the PA is his biggest priority. Here, his job as finance minister comes into play because the strategy is to strangle the authority financially. Smotrich has the power to do that because approximately 60 percent of the revenues the PA relies on to pay salaries and provide services come from customs and other taxes Israel collects in the PA’s name, transferring the money to Ramallah every month.

For some time, Israel had been deducting from these “clearance revenue” transfers the money that the PA spent supporting families of Palestinians held in Israeli prisons. Shortly after the war in Gaza began, Smotrich tripled the monthly deductions to as much as 600 million shekels—about 60 percent of the overall monthly transfer. In protest, the PA refused to accept any money, forcing it to cut civil servants’ wages by as much as 70 percent.

In late February, a face-saving formula was found under which Norway agreed to put the withheld funds in an escrow account, thereby giving the PA an excuse to take the money still available. Last month, however, Smotrich renewed his pressure campaign, calling on Netanyahu to stop all transfers and demanding that Norway return the escrow funds to Israel. More recently, he demanded steps be taken against the PA leaders, including expelling those found not to be living legally in the West Bank, restricting the movements of others and preventing them from traveling abroad—and charging some with incitement or support of terrorism.

Smotrich is no less determined to exacerbate the troubles of an already depressed Palestinian economy. That not only further pressures the PA financially but also may have the added benefit of coaxing Palestinians to emigrate. To that end, he and Ben-Gvir have also been able to block efforts to allow the approximately 150,000 West Bank Palestinians who had been working inside Israel before Oct. 7 to return to their jobs. By Palestinian standards, those jobs pay well, so their sudden disappearance has an outsized effect on household incomes and the economy.

Smotrich is now threatening to deal another blow to the Palestinian economy by halting the issuing of what until now were routine letters of indemnity to Israeli banks. The letters provide a legal shield to Israeli financial institutions working with their Palestinian counterparts in case some money ends up in the hands of terrorist groups. This correspondent banking relationship is critical to the Palestinian economy, enabling the annual flow of $10 billion of Palestinian exports and imports, all of which go through Israel. If Smotrich acts, it will bring the West Bank economy to its knees.

The defense establishment is opposed to most of Smotrich’s measures, worrying he is fanning the flames of another intifada, or Palestinian uprising. But it is largely helpless to prevent them so long as the political echelon doesn’t act. Even if Netanyahu wanted to stop Smotrich, he needs his ongoing support to keep his governing coalition intact. Smotrich’s party accounts for seven seats in the 120-member parliament. If he withdraws from the coalition, Netanyahu’s government would no longer have a majority.

Smotrich thus has a relatively free hand from his boss.

What he doesn’t have is a public mandate to pursue his program. His main annexation constituency is the settler population, which makes up no more than 10 percent of Israel’s total, and even its support for his annexation project is hardly wall to wall. Much of the settler population is made up of people who moved to the West Bank for economic reasons, including many thousands of ultra-Orthodox Jews. They are not thought to be wedded to the idea of Greater Israel. Among the overall population, support for annexation is far from overwhelming: A recent survey by Tel Aviv University found only about 38 percent of Jewish Israelis supported the idea (and only 14 percent very strongly); a majority opposed it.

Even far-right voters are seen to be unimpressed by Smotrich—preferring Ben-Gvir’s loud-mouthed thuggery over Smotrich’s careful (and often behind-the-scenes) calculations. If elections were held today, according to the most recent polls, Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit party would win nine seats in Israel’s 120-member parliament; Smotrich’s Religious Zionism wouldn’t receive enough votes to enter the Knesset at all. But then again, for him, the only vote that counts is cast in heaven, and Smotrich is confident he has it.

[Derby]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/a-fintech-collapse-is-rippling-through-a-small-corner-of-the-banking-world-143054499.html

A fintech collapse is rippling through a small corner of the banking world

The unraveling of fintech upstart Synapse is rippling through a small corner of the banking world, leaving thousands of customers without access to their money and a mystery about millions of dollars that went missing.

Four small US banks have some of the money. No one is sure where the rest went.

The saga surrounding the bankruptcy of Synapse, a 10-year-old fintech firm, puts a new spotlight on how loose webs of partnerships between venture-backed upstarts and FDIC-backed lenders can go so wrong.

Regulators are more closely scrutinizing these relationships and warning various banks to tighten their controls when working with fintech firms.

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve slapped one of Synapse’s partner banks with an enforcement action that identified risk management weaknesses surrounding such partnerships.

'Banking as a service'

Synapse was part of a wave of new fintech firms that emerged in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis as Silicon Valley-style digital banking upstarts promised to shake up the world of traditional finance.

In just a decade it became a major middleman between dozens of fintech companies and community banks by offering what it called "banking as a service."

It provided digital banking outfits like Mercury, Dave (DAVE), and Juno with access to checking accounts and debit cards they could offer their customers. It was able to do this by partnering with FDIC-backed banks that in return got a new source of deposits and fee revenue.

The traditional lenders that partnered with Synapse included Evolve Bank & Trust, American Bank, AMG National Trust, and Lineage Bank, all small banks when compared with giants like JPMorgan Chase (JPM) or Bank of America (BAC).

The largest was Evolve, which had roughly $1.5 billion in assets at the end of the first quarter.

The pitch that Synapse effectively gave to these smaller banks was "we’ll bring in the deposits; you don’t have to do much," according to Jason Mikula, an independent fintech consultant who publishes a weekly newsletter and has followed Synapse.

"This turned out not to be accurate, in my opinion," Mikula added.

The problems surfaced shortly after Synapse filed for bankruptcy in April when it could not reach an agreement with Evolve on a settlement of funds.

Three weeks into the bankruptcy proceedings, Synapse cut off Evolve's access to its technology system. That, in turn, forced Evolve and the other partner banks to freeze customer accounts.

Both parties blamed each other as the culprit.

"Synapse’s abrupt shutdown of essential systems without notice and failure to provide necessary records needlessly jeopardized end users by hindering our ability to verify transactions, confirm end user balances, and comply with applicable law," Evolve said in a statement.

Synapse CEO Sankaet Pathak rebuked this claim, accusing Evolve of having the means to settle a deficit yet delaying the return of customer funds.

"The debtor has been forced to play a perverse game of 'whack-a-mole' with unreasonable demands from Evolve as conditions to unfreezing the depositor accounts, all while the depositors suffer lack of access to their funds," Pathak stated in court documents last month.

The end result is that thousands of fintech customers lost access to their money.

“Synapse’s bankruptcy has left tens of thousands of end-users of financial technology platforms that were customers of Synapse stranded without access to their funds,” Jelena McWilliams, the court-appointed trustee to Synapse and a former FDIC chair, wrote in a letter last week to the heads of five federal banking regulators.

There was another problem: No one seemed to know where all of the money was.

McWilliams in early June said there was a shortfall of $85 million, with the four banks only accounting for $180 million of the $265 million belonging to end users.

More recently she said the range of the shortfall was $65 million to $96 million.

Some money has been paid back to customers. McWilliams said on June 21 that more than $100 million "has been distributed by certain of the partner banks."

Blind spots

Bank regulators have been concerned for some time about the partnerships between Silicon Valley-style digital startups and FDIC-backed banks.

Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu used a September 2023 speech to discuss the potential blind spots for regulators as these relationships become more blurry.

“Banks and tech firms, in an effort to provide a ‘seamless’ customer experience, are teaming up in ways that make it more difficult for customers, regulators, and the industry to distinguish between where the bank stops and where the tech firm starts,” Hsu said in the speech.

Last June, regulators issued final joint guidance on how lenders should handle these relationships.

These partnerships are not yet widespread across the entire banking industry, even though the use of this model is accelerating while banks of all sizes seek ways to attract deposits and earn more revenue.

Fewer than 2% of US banks used the banking-as-a-service model in 2023, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.

But regulators are nonetheless getting more aggressive about calling out such relationships. The banking-as-a-service model accounted for 13.5% of public enforcement actions from regulators in 2023, according to S&P.

In January, the FDIC issued a consent order to one of Synapse’s partner banks, Franklin, Tenn.-based Lineage, that identified weaknesses related to its banking-as-a-service program and ordered the bank to come up with a plan for how to achieve an "orderly termination" with significant fintech partners.

The next month, New York City-based Piermont Bank; Attica, Ohio-based Sutton Bank; and Martinsville, Va.-based Blue Ridge Bank received consent orders from regulators related to alleged deficiencies in their banking-as-a-service business.

Then, earlier this month, the Fed issued an enforcement action against Evolve, saying that examinations conducted in 2023 "found that Evolve engaged in unsafe and unsound banking practices by failing to have in place an effective risk management framework" for its partnerships with fintech companies.

Regulators asked Evolve to improve its policies and risk management practices "by implementing appropriate oversight and monitoring of those relationships." They also noted that the action was "independent of the bankruptcy proceedings regarding Synapse."

A spokesperson for Evolve said the recent order was "similar to orders received by others in the industry" and "does not affect our existing business, customers, or deposits."

The bank counts Affirm (AFRM), Mastercard (MA), and Stripe as notable fintech partnerships on its website.

It has also in the past partnered with two crypto firms that went bankrupt, FTX and BlockFi, as well as Bytechip, a financial services firm had its accounts with Evolve frozen late last year on the allegation it violated federal law by laundering money for fraudsters.

To add to its recent challenges, Evolve said this past Wednesday that some customer data was illegally spread on the dark web as a result of "a cybersecurity incident involving a known cybercriminal organization."

"Evolve has engaged the appropriate law enforcement authorities to aid in our investigation and response efforts," the bank said. "This incident has been contained, and there is no ongoing threat."

[siempretarde]

Dios mioh Sudden

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/economia/2024/06/29/667ef88de5fdea0a228b458f.html

Saludos.