Re:PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Invierno 2025

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://elpais.com/internacional/2025-01-31/una-mayoria-de-paises-de-la-ue-pide-al-banco-europeo-de-inversiones-mas-financiacion-para-la-defensa-europea.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://elpais.com/sociedad/2025-01-31/mas-del-40-de-los-europeos-carece-de-habilidades-digitales-para-gestiones-online-no-ponen-facilidades-al-ciudadano-sino-barreras.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/Cinco-Dias/20250201/page/37/textview

DeepSeek y la fragilidad del 'statu quo': una lección sobre el riesgo

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://cincodias.elpais.com/opinion/2025-02-01/alemania-quien-esta-enfermo-no-esta-enfermo-o-si-y-si-si-quien-paga.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://cincodias.elpais.com/opinion/2025-02-01/la-misteriosa-fuerza-detras-de-deepseek-que-ha-hecho-temblar-a-nvidia.html

Saludos.

[asustadísimos]

FICHA || DEBIERA HABER TANTAS MOTOSIERRAS COMO IMPRESORAS.—

No hay una sola impresora, sino muchísimas:
• las del Estado —banco central y fiscos— y
• las de los particulares que emiten deuda transmisible.

¿Acaso los depósitos bancarios, los bonos, etc. no son dinero en sentido amplio?

Según la ortopraxia capitalista, debiera haber tantas motosierras como impresoras.

Este principio es el que late en el fondo del esquema de los 'criterios de convergencia' (o 'de Maastrich') que dan vida al euro.

El modelo popularcapitalista de los 1980 es fruto del triunfo del antiinflacionismo. Se trasladó la inflación del Índice de Precios al Consumo a los activos popularcapitalistas: inmuebles, Bolsa, Deuda y dólar. No funciona si no hay desapego al dinero. Pero los contestatarios conservadores del modelo popularcapitalista solo infunden odio a dos de las impresoras del Estado: la del banco central y la del fisco de la Administración Pública Central. ¿Y las impresoras no centrales, incluidas las del sector privado, qué?

El colmo es que, además, odien la mismísima moneda nacional y:
• o rindan pleitesía a la del actual imperio crematocrático, cuya esencia es precisamente que toda moneda que no sea el dólar norteamericano esté anclada a él,
• o hagan apología de las mal llamadas finanzas descentralizadas ('DeFi'), cuando las verdaderas finanzas descentralizadas son las de los Estados, que no están 'in aeternum' en manos de los mismos y cuyo dinero plenamente líquido no requiere de ningún sistema de registro.

[Derby]

https://www.intellinews.com/will-the-nord-steam-gas-pipelines-be-turned-back-on-soon-364523/

Will the Nord Steam gas pipelines be turned back on soon?


The idea of restarting Russian piped gas deliveries via the mothballed Nord Stream 1 & 2 gas pipelines has been introduced as a possible bargaining chip in the expected Russo-Ukraine ceasefire talks. If it happens it would go a long way to ending Europe's energy crisis. / bne IntelliNews

Could Gazprom’s Nord Stream undersea gas pipelines, partially destroyed by saboteurs in September 2022, eventually be restarted? The idea of reconnecting Europe to the giant Russian Yamal gas fields has been introduced as a possible bargaining chip in the widely expected ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine. While political optics of such a deal are terrible, for the struggling European economies it is an economic no-brainer.

Denmark’s energy agency ordered the operator of the Nord Stream pipelines to cap the severed ends of the three destroyed pipelines this week to preserve their integrity, making it possible, in theory, to patch the holes created in a series of explosions in September 2022 and lift the pipes to the surface for repairs.

The idea of restarting Russian gas deliveries to Germany is clearly in the air and favoured by some in the German political firmament. Leader of Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland party (AfD) Alice Weidel told a party conference this week that “We will put Nord Stream back into operation, you can count on it!’ as the right have (correctly) identified the end of cheap Russian as being a major cause of the collapse of the German economy.

That has not gone down well with Ukraine’s supporters. The Baltic states have been adamant that all Russian gas imports should end. Polish President Andrzej Duda the same week that Germany “should not be tempted” to resume Russian supplies just because its economy is struggling; Germany’s economy has contracted for two years in a row and is predicted to shrink again this year. Rather than repair the €10bn pipeline that is capable of supplying 40% of Europe’s gas needs, Duda said that Nord Stream should instead be “dismantled.”

Detractors argue that resuming Russian gas deliveries threaten Europe with energy dependence, but also frame it as a military threat as the money it generates funds Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war machine. Russia’s Gazprom earned some €6.5bn from gas exports to Europe last year.

The loss of cheap Russian gas has been disastrous for Germany leading directly to its deindustrialisation as heavy industry has had to close down due to the soaring cost of gas and energy. The end of gas imports came just as the government decided to shutter its six powerful state-of-the-art nuclear power plant (NPP) in the midst of one of the worst energy crises this century in 2022 that turned Germany from a net exporter of energy into a net importer. That has put pressure on the rest of the EU, as Germany’s neighbours are forced to supply Germany with power under EU rules that have driven up costs in those countries as well. Sweden and Norway in particular are now suffering from power price inflation and have frozen plans to increase power links with Germany to cap exports capacity so they can use more of their domestic production capacity to meet their own domestic demand.

The upending of Germany’s energy security has led to the biggest collapse in German living standards since the Second World War and a downturn in economic output comparable to the 2008 financial crisis.

The downturn is having political consensus too. The funding of the war in Ukraine – Germany has been Ukraine’s most generous EU backer – has put intolerable strain on Germany’s finances that was already in a budget crisis after budget spending bumped up against borrowing limits imposed by the constitution by the so-called Schuldenbremse, or “debt brake” that limits government borrowing. At the end of last year, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced that Berlin has run out of money for Ukraine and will drastically reduce its contributions after this year. Tensions over money and wrangling over a €3bn aid package for Ukraine has already led to the collapse of the ruling coalition and German policy is in limbo as the country waits for a new government in a general election slated for February.

The quality of German life was already falling before the war started but has been made much worse by the various shocks the conflict has unleashed. The failure to protect German industry from the energy price spike may turn the 2020s into “a lost decade for Germany,” according to a recent paper published by the Forum for a New Economy, the Spectator reports. The economic malaise is fuelling the rise of the far-right AfD that won several key regional elections in November and is currently ranked second in popularity after the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU).

And Russia’s gas business is still doing well, despite the setbacks. Gas production rose 7.6% in 2024 y/y to around 685bcm, according to comments by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak on January 30. This year Russia expects to increase gas production again. Pipeline gas exports also increased last year by 15.6% to over 119bcm, while LNG exports were up by a more modest 4% to 47.2bcm (21.2mn tonnes).

Despite the myriad sanctions on Russia, Europe bought 22.6bcm (17mn tonnes) of LNG from Gazprom in 2024,  mostly via terminals in France, Spain and Belgium. Taking LNG and piped gas together, Russia's export to Europe were up 20% year on year to about 50bcm - around a third of pre-war export volumes.  This year imports of piped gas may fall after Ukraine walked out on a gas transit deal with Russia, but delivered via the one remaining route, TurkStream that runs through the Black Sea, continues to rise, as does shipped LNG deliveries.

Publicly, Germany has ended the import of Russian gas and the CDU leader Friedrich Merz, who is very likely to take over from Scholz in the upcoming elections, has called for all Russian gas imports to end. However, embarrassingly, Germany continues to be the biggest importer of Russian gas via the backdoor imports routed through French and Belgium ports among other alternatives. Despite the fighting-talk, Europe remains hooked on Russian gas.

Currently, Europe is still consuming half of Russia’s annual gas production. Although the volume of piped Russian gas has fallen dramatically over the last two years, the volume of Russia’s LNG exports to Europe have doubled in the last two years and are currently at an all-time high and still rising. Ukraine’s supporters wanted to include an LNG ban in the sixteenth package of sanctions under debate at the moment and due to be enacted in February, but that idea has already been dropped as unworkable, according to reports.

The Danish energy agency decision to cap the four strands of the Nord Stream 1 & 2 pipelines creates the possibility that the damaged pipes could relatively easily be patched, pumped dry and lifted to the surface for repairs at some point. The one strand that survived the 2022 bombings in September 2022 is still pressurised and could in theory be turned back on tomorrow to deliver a badly needed 25bcm of gas to the EU – half as much again as Ukraine was delivering until it turned off the spigot on January 1.

The idea of restarting Russia’s gas deliveries has been in the air for a while now. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Scholtz held their first phone conversation in two years in November to talk about the war. Not much was agreed, but amongst the points raised, Putin said that he was willing to restart gas deliveries to Germany through the working pipeline if there was an acceptable Ukrainian ceasefire deal.

The optics of restarting the import of Russian gas are terrible after the ardent campaign by Ukraine’s supporters to shut down all Russian gas imports, but economically it is a no-brainer. A recent report from former Italian Prime Minister and ex-European Central Bank boss Mario Draghi showed in excruciating detail how Europe has lost its competitive edge and has fallen badly behind the US and China. Reconnecting to cheap Russian energy would go a long way towards solving that problem.

[Derby]

https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-says-americans-could-feel-pain-trade-war-with-mexico-canada-china-2025-02-02/

Trump says Americans could feel 'pain' in trade war with Mexico, Canada, China

WASHINGTON, Feb 2 (Reuters) - President Donald Trump said on Sunday the sweeping tariffs that he has imposed on Mexico, Canada and China may cause "some pain" for Americans, as Wall Street and the largest U.S. trading partners signaled hope that the trade war would not last long.

Trump, who began his second term as president on Jan. 20, defended the tariffs that he announced on Saturday. Canada and Mexico said they were working together to face the 25% U.S. duties on imports, which promise to jolt the integrated economies of three North American countries that have had free-trade agreements for decades.(...)

"The USA has major deficits with Canada, Mexico, and China (and almost all countries!), owes 36 Trillion Dollars, and we’re not going to be the 'Stupid Country' any longer," the Republican president wrote.

Writing in capital letters, Trump added, "This will be the golden age of America! Will there be some pain? Yes, maybe (and maybe not!)."

Trump did not specify what he meant by "some pain."

A model gauging the economic impact of Trump's tariff plan from EY Chief Economist Greg Daco suggests it would reduce U.S. economic growth by 1.5 percentage points this year, throw Canada and Mexico into recession and usher in "stagflation" - high inflation, stagnant economic growth and elevated unemployment - at home.(...)

[Derby]

https://www.aol.com/exclusive-u-wants-ukraine-hold-151423411.html

Exclusive-U.S. wants Ukraine to hold elections following a ceasefire, says Trump envoy

NEW YORK/WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States wants Ukraine to hold elections, potentially by the end of the year, especially if Kyiv can agree a truce with Russia in the coming months, President Donald Trump's top Ukraine official told Reuters.

Keith Kellogg, Trump's special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, said in an interview that Ukrainian presidential and parliamentary elections, suspended during the war with Russia, "need to be done".

"Most democratic nations have elections in their time of war. I think it is important they do so," Kellogg said. "I think it is good for democracy. That's the beauty of a solid democracy, you have more than one person potentially running."

Trump and Kellogg have both said they are working on a plan to broker a deal in the first several months of the new administration to end the all-out war that erupted with Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022.

They have offered few details about their strategy for ending the deadliest conflict in Europe since World War Two, nor when they might unveil such a plan.

The Trump plan is still evolving and no policy decisions have been made, but Kellogg and other White House officials have discussed in recent days pushing Ukraine to agree to elections as part of an initial truce with Russia, two people with knowledge of those conversations and a former U.S. official briefed about the election proposal said.

Trump officials are also debating whether to push for an initial ceasefire before trying to broker a more permanent deal, the two people familiar with the Trump administration discussions said. If presidential elections were to take place in Ukraine, the winner could be responsible for negotiating a longer-term pact with Moscow, the people said.

The sources declined to be named in order to discuss sensitive policy and security issues.

It is unclear how such a Trump proposal would be greeted in Kyiv. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has said Ukraine could hold elections this year if the fighting ends and strong security guarantees are in place to deter Russia from renewing hostilities.

A senior adviser to Kyiv and a Ukrainian government source said the Trump administration has not yet formally requested Ukraine hold presidential elections by the end of the year.

SETTING A TRAP

Zelenskiy's five-year term was supposed to end in 2024 but presidential and parliamentary polls cannot be held under martial law, which Ukraine imposed in February 2022.

Washington raised the issue of elections with senior officials in Zelenskiy's office in 2023 and 2024 during the Biden administration, two former senior U.S. officials said.

State Department and White House officials told their Ukrainian counterparts that elections were critical to uphold international and democratic norms, the officials said.

Officials in Kyiv have pushed back on elections in conversations with Washington in recent months, telling Biden officials that hosting polls at such a volatile moment in Ukraine's history would divide Ukrainian leaders and potentially invite Russian influence campaigns, the two former U.S. officials said.

Asked about what the former Western official and two other people familiar with the matter told Reuters, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: "We do not have that information."

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov was cited by the Interfax news agency on Jan. 27 as saying that direct contacts between Moscow and the Trump administration were not yet underway. The Russian Foreign Ministry says it is still waiting for the U.S. to approve its new pick as Moscow's ambassador in Washington, a post currently unoccupied.

Putin has said publicly he does not think Zelenskiy is a legitimate leader in the absence of a renewed electoral mandate and that the Ukrainian president does not have the legal right to sign binding documents related to a potential peace deal.

According to the Russian leader, however, Zelenskiy could take part in negotiations in the meantime but must first revoke a 2022 decree he signed banning talks with Russia for as long as Putin is in charge.

The Ukrainian government source said Putin was using the election issue as a false excuse to disrupt future negotiations.

"(He) is setting a trap, claiming that if Ukraine doesn't hold elections, he can later ignore any agreements," the source said.

RUSSIA'S BIDDING?

Ukrainian legislation explicitly prohibits presidential and parliamentary elections being held under martial law.

The former Western official raised concerns about the U.S. push for elections, saying lifting martial law could allow mobilized soldiers to leave the military, trigger an exodus of hard currency and prompt large numbers of draft-age men to "run for the border".

It could also ignite political instability, the source said, because it would make Zelenskiy a lame duck, diluting his power and influence and fueling jockeying by potential challengers.

If Trump pressures Zelenskiy to agree to elections, Washington would be playing into Putin's recent statements questioning the Ukrainian leader's legitimacy, the former Western official said.

"Trump is reacting, in my view, to ... Russian feedback," the official said. "Russia wants to see an end to Zelenskiy."

Some former U.S. officials say they are skeptical that a peace deal can be reached in the coming months or that elections would take place in 2025, particularly because both sides appear to be at odds on how to begin formal negotiations.

The Kremlin has said repeatedly that Putin is open to talks without preconditions.

But William Taylor, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, said Putin has shown no readiness for serious negotiations.

Zelenskiy is seeking U.S. and European security guarantees as part of any deal, including the deployment of a foreign military force on the frontlines to ensure Russia abides by any truce.

[Derby]

https://archive.ph/LMXp4#selection-521.0-525.146

Ukraine’s defense sector in disarray at crucial moment in the war

A dispute between top defense officials comes amid worries over continued U.S. military support for Ukraine and reawakens worries over corruption.

KYIV — In a controversy that has threatened to undermine Western support for Ukraine, the country’s main weapons procurement agency — with a budget of more than $7 billion — has been frozen for the past week because of a standoff over who should lead it.

Defense Minister Rustem Umerov recently said that the procurement agency’s director, Maryna Bezrukova, would not have her contract renewed because of “unsatisfactory” results — except the supervisory board responsible for that decision had already unanimously voted to extend it.

Bezrukova, activists and some lawmakers have denounced Umerov’s actions as an abuse of power that could weaken exactly the kind of anti-corruption efforts the agency was established to combat.
There have already been calls for his resignation.

Any appearance of scandal within Ukraine’s defense sector comes at a precarious time for the country as the future of U.S. arms aid under President Donald Trump is unclear. Republicans in the United States have also often accused Kyiv of corruption.

“The timing is disgusting,” said Daria Kaleniuk, the executive director of Ukraine’s Anti-Corruption Action Center, who filed a complaint to the National Anti-Corruption Bureau, which has opened an investigation. “If I was Russia, I would’ve invented such sabotage to ruin international support for Ukraine,” she added.((..)

Umerov was appointed by Zelensky in 2023 to clean up any graft in the ministry after his predecessor faced blowback for allegedly purchasing food for soldiers at inflated prices. The creation of independent agencies for military procurement was considered a test for a new system of corporate governance that would be more transparent and less vulnerable to corruption, analysts said.(...)

Umerov’s accusations

In a letter sent this week by the Defense Ministry to embassies in Ukraine and obtained by The Washington Post, Umerov wrote that in 2024, under the leadership of Bezrukova, the Defense Procurement Agency “failed to fulfill 47 percent of its obligations to deliver equipment and supplies to the front as outlined in the official supply plan submitted to the General Staff for planning.”

Umerov also claimed that the agency was embroiled in “political games, leaks of contracts, and leaks of information.” He did not provide specific examples.

Bezrukova has countered that she focused on signing long-term contracts, some of which would be fulfilled in 2025, and had a strategy of not buying up existing ammunition stocks to keep prices down. The result was a longer waiting time, but she maintained the ministry had approved the plan.

Both she and Yuriy Dzhygyr, the chairman of the supervisory board who was dismissed after the board voted to extend Bezrukova’s contract, added that they received nearly $2 billion of their budget at the start of October, meaning they had just a few months to spend that money.

According to the German Marshall Fund of the United States, a nonpartisan think tank, Bezrukova changed the process of weapons procurement by working directly with producers.

She cut out “legions of shady and corrupt intermediaries who get rich off the notoriously opaque and fragmented international arms market. Under her leadership, the DPA reduced intermediaries’ share of procurements from 81 percent to 12 percent.”

During a briefing at the Defense Ministry on Friday, officials claimed that Ukraine’s parallel agency for nonlethal military procurement was more effective, which is why Umerov decided to appoint its head, Arsen Zhumadilov, to oversee both.

The head of the Procurement Policy Department of the Defense Ministry, Hlib Kanevskyi, said that “for several categories of equipment, deliveries did not arrive in 2024, preventing the General Staff from making proper plans.”

A European diplomat, speaking on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly, acknowledged that Bezrukova’s work was slow at times. But official added that the most important issue for the Western allies was that Kyiv establish institutions and maintain them because any dismantling of the Defense Procurement Agency would force partners to start from scratch.

Dzhygyr, the ousted chairman of the supervisory board, said there were other factors that contributed to the procurement agency’s “suboptimal” performance, and evaluating Bezrukova’s work was a distraction from the primary issue of Umerov overreaching his authority.

Dzhygyr said the board had planned to wait for the results of a NATO audit of the agency’s work, which was expected to take up to six months, and then decide her fate — a process Bezrukova said she supported because it would have been fair.

Bezrukova and others are still awaiting on the reaction of one key figure: Zelensky.

“If Umerov had a mandate from Zelensky for all of this, I would not survive professionally here,” she told The Post on Thursday. Gesturing to her office at the Defense Procurement Agency, she added, “And I’m still here.”

[Derby]

https://www.euronews.com/2025/02/01/norway-releases-russian-crewed-ship-after-cable-damage-investigation

Norway releases Russian-crewed ship after cable damage investigation

Norway has released a Russian-crewed ship authorities suspected of damaging a fibre optic cable connecting Latvia and the Swedish island of Gotland.

A Norwegian-owned and Russian-crewed ship that authorities initially suspected may have been involved in damage to an underwater fibre-optic cable connecting Latvia and the Swedish island of Gotland has been released.

Norwegian police said late on Friday that no findings had been made that would have linked the ship, the Silver Dania, “to the act.”

“Tromsø police district has now conducted a number of investigative steps and secured what we see as necessary considering the request from Latvia. The investigation will continue, but we see no reason for the ship to remain in Tromsø¸ any longer,” Tromsø¸ police attorney Ronny Jorgensen said late on Friday.

The Silver Dania was stopped on Thursday evening and brought into the port of Tromsø¸ in northern Norway on Friday morning by a Norwegian coast guard vessel for inspection. They said that followed a request from Latvian authorities and a ruling by a Norwegian court.(...)

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/expansion-nacional-sabado/20250201/page/2/textview

El factor diferencial de la vivienda en España

https://www.expansion.com/inmobiliario/mercado/2025/02/01/679c9033e5fdea3f368b45ad.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/economia/financial-times/2025/01/31/679cded3e5fdea2d768b4597.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/expansion-empleo/desarrollo-de-carrera/2025/01/30/679bbd04468aeb19348b45a0.html

Saludos.

[Derby]

https://sputnikglobe.com/20250202/any-attempt-to-bail-out-the-dollar-with-crypto-is-doomed--british-economist----1121525849.html

Any Attempt to Bail Out the Dollar With Crypto is Doomed – British Economist

Donald Trump has repeatedly supported the concept of digital currencies, promising to turn the United States into a global cryptocurrency hub. While campaigning for the presidency, he also vowed to create a national strategic Bitcoin reserve.

“The USA is acutely aware of a possible collapse in the value of the American dollar. Moreover, it knows that the rise of BRICS will accentuate the collapse,” Rodney Shakespeare, a visiting professor at Trisakti University and co-founder of the Global Justice Movement, told Sputnik.

Should a crypto bubble emerge following Donald Trump's statements, it would “first lead to a lessening of overall demand and, on bursting, contribute to a huge loss of confidence possibly precipitating some sort of financial collapse,” the pundit concluded.(...)