Re:PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Invierno 2025

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-08/housing-is-the-elephant-in-the-room-of-germany-s-tense-election

Housing Is the Elephant in the Room of Germany’s Tense Election

Parties have sidestepped the issue despite worsening shortages
Demands for rent controls collide with push for more building


Residential buildings line a canal in Hamburg.Photographer: Imke Lass/Bloomberg

Friedrich Merz, the conservative frontrunner for German chancellor, has vowed to rapidly implement a 15-point plan if he secures power after the Feb. 23 election.

The immediate measures would include stemming illegal migration, lowering power prices and reversing the legalization of cannabis. Conspicuous by its absence is any proposal to alleviate the country’s intensifying housing shortage.

But it’s not just the Christian Democrat-led bloc. Across the political spectrum, Germany’s parties have shied away from the sticky issue, even though it’s arguably one of the key sources of social anxiety and weighs on the economy.


Friedrich Merz at the party’s convention in Berlin on Feb. 3.Photographer: Krisztian Bocsi/Bloomberg

“The issue of rents and housing has so far played a completely minor role in the election campaign,” said Lukas Siebenkotten, who heads the German renters association. “This is despite the fact that one in three of the 21 million tenant households are now overburdened by their housing costs.”

Germany is a country of tenants. More than half of the 84 million inhabitants rent, the highest rate in the European Union. There’s currently a shortage of about half a million apartments and nearly 1 million additional social-housing units will be needed by 2030 to ease the crunch, according to construction union IG BAU.

In major cities like Hamburg, Munich and Frankfurt, costs for new leases increased by more than 10% at the end of 2024 compared with two years earlier, according to a study by German Economic Institute in Cologne. In Berlin, new rents rose more than 20% in the period.

But after the economy contracted for two years in a row and sluggish growth forecast in 2025, salaries in many sectors aren’t keeping pace.



The root cause of the crisis is a lack of investment in building homes where population growth is most pronounced. Higher interest rates and inflation dampened activity in the residential market the past two years and there’s no recovery in sight.

Aside from the impact on housing, construction is an important component of the economy in its own right. Around 14% of Germany’s gross value added and one in every seven jobs is related to residential construction activities, according to a study published by Berlin-based DIW. That means jolting residential building could have wide-ranging ripple effects for the economy.

A construction site for apartment buildings in Hamburg.Photographer: Maria Feck/Bloomberg

The lack of housing space, for instance, is a struggle for companies trying to recruit staff and adds hurdles for Germans thinking of moving for a better job. The issue has become even more pressing as households with existing contracts could face notable surges if a cap on rent increases isn’t extended before current restrictions expire at the end of the year.

Despite the scale and urgency of the problem, housing has barely registered on the campaign trail so far. That’s largely because there are no easy answers. While all the parties acknowledge the need to provide more affordable housing, proposals are vague with few concrete details or financing.

The issue also hasn’t been a winner for Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s administration, which didn’t come close to achieving a target of building 400,000 homes annually since taking power in December 2021. Through November 2024, the number of newly-issued building permits dropped by 19% to about 195,000, according to the German federal statistics office.



Even though the parties are underplaying the issue, activists are trying to keep it on the agenda. On Saturday, an alliance of 60 civic groups are fanning out with flyers and posters across cities including Berlin, Cologne and Leipzig to lobby for more stringent rent controls.

“Affordable housing is the social issue of our time,” said Carmel Fuhg, spokeswoman for the group. “Only a drastic step such as the rent cap will make rents affordable again throughout Germany.”

Although such restrictions might appeal to tenants, Germany ultimately needs new homes in locations where people want to live and work. That means construction to boost supply and conditions that attract investors.

While rent controls are more divisive, all German mainstream parties more or less agree on boosting construction by removing bureaucratic hurdles and implementing certain tax breaks for homebuilders, said Martin Gornig, research director for industrial policy at Berlin-based research institute DIW.

The problem is those measures would take five to six years to make an impact. To ease tension in the short term, a new government would need to take money in hand and build on state-owned land.

“The only political measure to put out this fire, especially in cities, is to invest in social housing,” he said, adding that persistent shortages are a social time bomb.


A container settlement that provides housing for refugees in Berlin.Photographer: Sean Gallup/Getty Images

Housing plays a role in the complex tensions over migration. When refugee shelters open, it can fuel feelings of being left behind.

While the causes are complex, xenophobic backlashes have become a reality in Germany. Crimes against refugees surged 75% to nearly seven a day in 2023 — the year after the war in Ukraine drove roughly 1 million people to seek safety in Germany. In the same year, foreigners suspected of breaking the law climbed by 13.5%.

The far-right Alternative for Germany, which is in second-place in the polls, is tapping this sentiment with proposals to deport thousands of migrants — effectively clearing space for locals. The nationalist party also wants building lots to be prioritized for German citizens.

“In the past, those who rejected migration were often concerned about job scarcity,” DIW’s Gornig said. “Today, one argument is to say that the boat is full because we can’t house more people.”

[Derby]

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/china-lashes-us-coercion-after-panama-declines-renew-118561218

China lashes out at US 'coercion' as Panama declines to renew agreement

China on lashed out at what it called U.S. “coercion” after Panama declined to renew a key infrastructure agreement with Beijing following Washington’s threat to take back the Panama Canal

BEIJING -- China on Friday lashed out at what it called U.S. “coercion” after Panama declined to renew a key infrastructure agreement with Beijing following Washington’s threat to take back the Panama Canal.

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said at a briefing that China “firmly opposes the U.S. smearing and undermining the Belt and Road cooperation through means of pressure and coercion.”

The Belt and Road Initiative is President Xi Jinping’s signature foreign police drive to bind China closer to countries in the region and beyond by building roads, railways, airports, power plants and other infrastructure. The program has completed some major projects but also raised concerns about debt and environmental impact.

Panama’s decision to walk away from it was seen as a concession to the U.S. over the canal after U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned Panamanian leader José Raúl Mulino on Sunday that Panama must immediately reduce what President Donald Trump says is Chinese influence over the canal area or face potential retaliation from the United States.

Mulino has rejected pressure from the new U.S. government to discuss ownership of a waterway that is vital to global trade.

Despite that, some believe Panama may be open to a compromise under which canal operations on both sides are taken away from the Hong Kong-based Hutchison Ports company, which was given a 25-year no-bid extension to run them. An audit into the suitability of that extension is already underway and could lead to a rebidding process.

A drop in water levels in the canal due to drought has slowed transit through the canal, raising further complaints from Trump, although the delays appear to have nothing to do with China.

Lin said the Belt and Road Initiative has brought “active participation” from over 150 countries and that it has brought “fruitful results” to Panama and China, but gave no examples.

“We hope Panama will bear in mind the general picture of bilateral relationship and the long-term interests of both peoples, resist external interference, and make the right decision,” Lin said.

[sudden and sharp]

 

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/bcf6153b-e5e8-4180-b338-793e13520a60

Canada’s trade minister visits Brussels in bid to boost mutual commerce

Move comes after Donald Trump threatened both with tariffs

Mary Ng visited Brussels for talks this weekend and said Canada and the EU could better exploit their existing trade deal © Bloomberg

Canada wants to boost trade with the EU, its trade minister has said, as tensions with the US persist over President Donald Trump’s tariff threats.

Mary Ng visited Brussels this weekend to hold talks with EU trade commissioner Maroš Šefčovič.

Ng said that the two sides could better exploit their existing trade deal. Since it came into force in 2017, EU-Canada trade has grown by two-thirds but the pair discussed how to boost it further.

“Do I think we could do better? Certainly,” Ng said. Both sides should seek to “enable our businesses to get into each other’s markets” and “always find ways of doing more of” that.

Ng said 98 per cent of Canadian business were small or medium-sized and some struggled with the paperwork required to export. Canada’s government was “providing some additional support for small and medium sized businesses to pursue their growth into international markets”, she said.

She said the Canada and the EU were also collaborating on critical minerals, with EU companies keen to tap her country’s reserves of metals used in green products such as electric vehicles and wind turbines.

EU countries want Ottawa to build pipelines to move oil and gas to Canada’s east coast where it could be exported to Europe, after Europe banned most Russian supplies.

Objections from provinces and indigenous communities have held up projects. But Ng said that Trump’s tariff threats could change that. “Canadians are really looking at what are the kinds of things we can do to help us be more resilient,” she said.

There was “much consensus now among the provincial and territorial leaders that we will remove barriers within our country so that we truly can have free trade within Canada. That is something that has eluded us.”

But she said consultation with indigenous people, who own some of the land which mining and energy projects would exploit, would continue.

Last week Trump announced 25 per cent tariffs on all Canadian goods, except oil at 10 per cent, only to then suspend them for a month. With 75 per cent of Canadian exports destined for the US, Ottawa is keen to strike a permanent deal with Washington.

Ng said Canada intends “to keep working with the Americans to find a more permanent solution” on trade and Canada was keen to “collaborate”.

“The Americans are talking about a golden age of economic growth. We believe that Canada can certainly be a part of that, working with the president . . . and his government,” she said.

Ng added that she wanted to restart stalled talks with the UK on an upgraded trade agreement. “Come back to the negotiating table. I believe we can find a solution,” she said.

The UK broke off negotiations a year ago after Canada reimposed tariffs on cheese when London refused access for Canadian beef from hormone-treated animals.

[muyuu]

Disculpen Uds.,

Creo que ya lo explicaron pero no recuerdo la respuesta técnica… ¿cómo se edita un post para mostrar la carátula de un vídeo de YouTube y que contenga la flecha para reproducirlo?


Ejemplo:



Gracias!

¿no sé si has intentado editarlo a través de la cita?

MONOPOLY INMOBILIARIO (CLUB INVERSOR) | #5 - 2025 va a ser el mejor año del sector inmobiliario de la historia | Gonzalo Bernardos

Saludos.

creo que habría que actualizarlo en el olvidadero, ha ido cambiando y ahora mismo ni sé cómo va, la verdad
https://www.transicionestructural.net/index.php?topic=2517.0

[Derby]

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20250209/10366372/50-espanoles-espera-gobiernos-soluciones-vivienda.html

El 50% de los españoles no espera de los gobiernos soluciones en vivienda
Cuatro de cada diez expresan preocupación por poder pagar el alquiler o la hipoteca

Toda una generación en España está viendo limitadas sus posibilidades de emanciparse debido a los problemas de acceso a la vivienda, y aunque la dificultad de tener un techo digno perjudica a los más jóvenes en sus perspectivas de futuro, es en realidad una preocupación transversal. De hecho, tres de cada cuatro españoles consideran que no se presta suficiente atención al problema de la vivienda, según los resultados para España de un sondeo de Ipsos realizado en 30 países a finales del año pasado. Y hay un cierto pesimismo sobre la capacidad de la clase política para resolver esta crisis: uno de cada dos españoles considera que los gobiernos no pueden hacer mucho para solucionar el problema de la vivienda.(,,,)

[Nuss]

Sería divertidísimo que, a cuenta del asteroide 2024 YR4, y su próxima visita en diciembre de 2032, nos monten la enésima emergencia susceptible de ser resuelta keynesianamente, esta vez a nivel planetario y todos a una.

Un saludo.

P.D: Justo a tiempo para que Elon Musk le de uso a su nuevo juguete.

[pollo]

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20250209/10366372/50-espanoles-espera-gobiernos-soluciones-vivienda.html

El 50% de los españoles no espera de los gobiernos soluciones en vivienda
Cuatro de cada diez expresan preocupación por poder pagar el alquiler o la hipoteca

Toda una generación en España está viendo limitadas sus posibilidades de emanciparse debido a los problemas de acceso a la vivienda, y aunque la dificultad de tener un techo digno perjudica a los más jóvenes en sus perspectivas de futuro, es en realidad una preocupación transversal. De hecho, tres de cada cuatro españoles consideran que no se presta suficiente atención al problema de la vivienda, según los resultados para España de un sondeo de Ipsos realizado en 30 países a finales del año pasado. Y hay un cierto pesimismo sobre la capacidad de la clase política para resolver esta crisis: uno de cada dos españoles considera que los gobiernos no pueden hacer mucho para solucionar el problema de la vivienda.(,,,)

Y así lo querrá la mayoría ladrillera. Todos con la cabeza agachada y resignados a la mordida de la mafia.

[sudden and sharp]

Sería divertidísimo que, a cuenta del asteroide 2024 YR4, y su próxima visita en diciembre de 2032, nos monten la enésima emergencia susceptible de ser resuelta keynesianamente, esta vez a nivel planetario y todos a una.

Un saludo.

P.D: Justo a tiempo para que Elon Musk le de uso a su nuevo juguete.

Ya lo creo: A4 vs US Letter.






... o un 4% frente al 96%.

[Benzino Napaloni]

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20250209/10366372/50-espanoles-espera-gobiernos-soluciones-vivienda.html

El 50% de los españoles no espera de los gobiernos soluciones en vivienda
Cuatro de cada diez expresan preocupación por poder pagar el alquiler o la hipoteca

Toda una generación en España está viendo limitadas sus posibilidades de emanciparse debido a los problemas de acceso a la vivienda, y aunque la dificultad de tener un techo digno perjudica a los más jóvenes en sus perspectivas de futuro, es en realidad una preocupación transversal. De hecho, tres de cada cuatro españoles consideran que no se presta suficiente atención al problema de la vivienda, según los resultados para España de un sondeo de Ipsos realizado en 30 países a finales del año pasado. Y hay un cierto pesimismo sobre la capacidad de la clase política para resolver esta crisis: uno de cada dos españoles considera que los gobiernos no pueden hacer mucho para solucionar el problema de la vivienda.(,,,)

Y así lo querrá la mayoría ladrillera. Todos con la cabeza agachada y resignados a la mordida de la mafia.

He pescado ya los primeros comentarios furiosos en LinkedIn sobre la compra de la Casa Orsola en Barcelona.

Lo que me confirma que LinkedIn ha acabado de degenerar en una red social más en vez de limitarse al ámbito profesional, pero eso da para discusión aparte.

La queja es por qué se está usando dinero público para que algunos puedan seguir teniendo alquileres de 300 al mes cuando la mayoría pagan mucho más.

Érase una vez un hombre rico y avaro. Tenía mucho dinero,
pero nunca le parecía suficiente. Junto al avaro vivía un hom-
bre envidioso. El envidioso no tenía necesidad de nada.
Una maga fue a ver a esos dos hombres y les dijo: “Pedid lo
que queráis y tendréis cuanto deseéis: basta que uno de los dos
lo pida. Y de cualquier cosa que uno pida, le daré el doble al otro”.
Entonces el avaro pensó: “Mejor que sea mi vecino quien
pida. Solicitará riquezas y yo tendré el doble de lo que él ob-
tenga”. Y el envidioso por su parte pensó: “Cualquier cosa que
pida, mi vecino la tendrá también, y además en cantidad
doble. De modo que pediré algo que le disguste”. El envidioso
pidió que se le cayese un ojo; y así sucedió: el envidioso quedó
tuerto, y el avaro, ciego.

Un clásico de León Tolstoi. Como en el relato, en vez de alegrarse pensando en que esto puede marcar el cambio de tendencia, a bramar porque hay quien está mucho menos jodido que yo.


Por cierto, el antiguo propietario de Casa Orsola ha aceptado vender con una rebaja del 30% sobre precio de "mercao". Punto a favor del -60%, porque una rebaja así no se regala ni por equivocación. Ahí había una certeza de que era coger eso o arriesgarse a perder más.

[sudden and sharp]

People lined up at GameStop an hour before open
https://packaged-media.redd.it/qkavdlb9wqhe1/pb/m2-res_854p.mp4?m=DASHPlaylist.mpd&v=1&e=1739124000&s=6b112bec464a68779168679a40cfbe18220c4ece

[senslev]

Y el péndulo hacia el otro lado, fe-wokismo.

https://www.vozpopuli.com/internacional/donald-trump-pone-al-cargo-de-la-nueva-oficina-para-la-fe-a-una-popular-telepredicadora.html

[tomasjos]

Parece que Milei se acerca al mismo muro que Menem pero más rápido

https://www.expansion.com/latinoamerica/2025/02/08/67a76e34468aeb245d8b4575.html

[Derby]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/charlie-munger-said-cycles-agony-153016735.html

Charlie Munger Said Cycles Of 'Agony' Are Normal In Real Estate But They Don't Last Forever — 'Sometimes It's A Boom, Sometimes It's A Bust'

As we navigate the twists and turns of the 2025 housing market—soaring interest rates, stubbornly high home prices, and an economy that feels like it's caught between gears—it's hard not to think of the late Charlie Munger.

The legendary investor, who passed away at 99 in November 2023, had a front-row seat to nearly every economic cycle you can imagine. And while he's no longer here to give us his sharp, no-nonsense advice, his words still echo, especially in times like these.

At the 2022 Daily Journal (NASDAQ:DJCO) shareholders meeting, Munger summed up market cycles in the way only he could: blunt, clear, and unapologetically wise.

"If you're going to invest in stocks for the long term or real estate, of course there are going to be periods when there's a lot of agony and other periods when there's a boom," he said. "And I think you just have to learn to live through them."

Fast-forward to 2025, and those words couldn't feel more relevant. Right now, we're in the thick of what many are calling a "bumpy recovery" in the housing market. Zillow predicts more buyers will re-enter the game this year, but unpredictable mortgage rates are still casting long shadows. Fannie Mae isn't exactly optimistic either, suggesting the market will remain "frozen" for many, thanks to affordability issues and the notorious "lock-in effect" that's keeping homeowners from trading up or down.

But here's the thing: Munger had seen it all before. Booms, busts, recessions, recoveries—different players, same game. His advice wasn't about trying to outsmart the cycle; it was about surviving it.

Quoting Rudyard Kipling, Munger reminded investors, "Treat those two imposters just the same." Whether it's a bull market or a housing slump, the lesson is clear: don't get too high during the booms, and don't fall apart during the busts.

Think about it. We just came out of a massive boom fueled by low interest rates, pandemic-era shifts, and, more recently, the AI-driven economic surge. Now things feel shaky. But as Munger stated:

"You have to deal with daylight and night. Does that bother you very much? No. Sometimes it's night and sometimes it's daylight. Sometimes it's a boom. Sometimes it's a bust. I believe in doing as well as you can and keep going as long as they let you."

So, what does that mean if you're thinking about buying a house or holding onto property in 2025? It means staying grounded. Markets recover. Prices adjust. Interest rates don't stay high forever. Just like Munger saw with countless economic cycles before, this too shall pass.

History doesn't repeat itself perfectly, but it sure does rhyme. And Munger's wisdom? That never goes out of style.

[Derby]

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9d528g755qo

No excuses not to build 1.5m new homes, Rayner says

Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner has said there are "no excuses" to not build the 1.5 million new homes Labour promised in its election manifesto.

The government has said it will meet the house-building target in England by 2029, before the next general election.

BBC analysis shows the number of new homes in England continued to fall during the first six months Labour was in power.

Speaking to the BBC's Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg, Rayner said Labour knew hitting the target "was going to be really difficult", given housebuilding trends before it entered government - but said she was determined to meet it.

The housing, communities and local government secretary said that within a month of taking office, she was asked if she wanted to review Labour's housing target.

"I wasn't going to give up on the target," she said.

She said she was personally "determined to meet that 1.5 million target" and said policies such as reforming the planning system would "take time" to have an impact.

She added: "There are no excuses to not build those homes that people desperately need.

"And we mean business on this, because far too many people are not getting these homes."

Gillian Keegan, a former Conservative MP and education secretary, told the programme the pace of housebuilding was "too slow".

She said the Conservatives had also promised to build more than 1.5 million new homes in its 2024 election manifesto, adding that the party had made "a lot of progress" when in government "but the reality is, it's still too slow".

"The highest number we got to was about 249,000 in one year," she said.

"Now obviously we had to navigate Brexit, Covid and a war in Europe at the time.

"But that shows you the size of the challenge."

Labour hopes building more homes will reduce house prices and make buying and renting homes more affordable, especially for younger people.

Its target means building an average of 300,000 new homes a year - a number not achieved since the 1970s.

In recent years, the number of new homes built annually has been considerably below that figure.

The housing industry has expressed doubts about Labour's housing target and whether it can be reached by 2029.

The construction industry has warned it is dealing with a chronic shortage of skilled workers.

There are also concerns about the availability of basic building materials, including bricks and timber.

And many housing experts are unsure whether private housebuilders are able or willing to deliver enough new homes each year.

Speeding up home-buying

It comes as Rayner's department set out plans to speed up the house-buying process and give more power to leaseholders.

The government said it plans to cut transaction times by bringing in digital identity services and date-sharing.

At the moment, it can take months for paperwork relating to the sale of a home to be exchanged and checked by mortgage companies and others involved in the process.

The government said under a fully digitalised home-buying and selling process, "the information key parties need – from mortgage companies to surveyors – will be within reach immediately, with the necessary identity checks carried out once".

The housing department said it was working with the property market and the Land Registry to agree rules on data-sharing and digital ID verification services.

There are also plans to empower leaseholders to take control of their buildings more easily, through right-to-manage.

Right-to-manage lets some leasehold home owners take over management of the building - even without the agreement of the landlord - and gives them control over how their service charges are spent.

The government said it would introduce changes to the Leasehold and Freehold Reform Act 2024 on Monday.

Housing and Planning Minister Matthew Pennycook said the reforms build on the government's plan to deliver "1.5 million safe and decent homes in this Parliament, and our ongoing efforts to protect leaseholders suffering from unfair and unreasonable practices".