PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Primavera 2025

[Benzino Napaloni]

Yo ya me estoy empezando a cabrear mucho con el tema de los aranceles de Trump, y no porque los ponga (es su país y se lo .... como quiere), sino porque es la enésima excusa para destrozar al pepito medio.

Durante el covid descubrimos que hasta los huevos de doña Manolita de la esquina venían de China (porque subieron de precio como si llegaran de contrabando desde Shenzen). Luego con lo de Ucrania, antes de que pasara lo del Nord Stream, descubrimos que absoutamente todo lo que se produce en el mundo entero venía de Ucrania (de nuevo los huevos de doña Manolita subieron otro 40%). Ahora resulta que deben venir de Estados Unidos, porque doña Manolita ya está hablando de cómo le afecta y cuánto va a tener que subirlos.

Leí por ahí que un 10% de nuestras exportaciones van a Estados Unidos, pero parece que esta subida de aranceles se va a cargar la economía y muchas empresas van a tener que cerrar. ¿Alguien se cree esto? El aceite de oliva europeo ya es un producto de lujo en Estados Unidos, y el arancel afecta a españoles, italianos y griegos. ¿Alguien que ya paga la botella a 15$/litro la deja de comprar porque le cueste 20$? Alguno habrá, claro, pero ¿todos? (teniendo en cuenta que no pueden irse a productos de la competencia porque también están afectados).

Igual que el ejemplo del iPhone, que pasa de 1800$ a 2300$. ¿Se van a dejar de comprar? Pues alguno seguro que sí. Otros se alegrarán de que sea un producto todavía más exclusivo. Y si no te puedes gastar 2300$ en un teléfono te están haciendo un favor porque tampoco deberías comprarte uno de 1800$ (no es un gasto recurrente, la diferencia se amortiza en 3 años -amortización contable de los pequeños dispositivos electrónicos. Sales a una diferencia de 14$ al mes-).

Mañana habrá un tsunami en Chile y dará la casualidad de que el maiz para las gallinas de doña Manolita viene de Chile, más concretamente de la región afectada por el tsunami. Otro 30% de subida. Nos venden distorsiones como cataclismos y el único cataclismo real es del bolsillo del pepito, que va a acabar comiendo piedras. ¡A tomar el pelo a SPM hombre ya!

¡Suben los hactibos! ¡Y los mercaos!

Entiendo el cabreo, yo me río por no repartir mamporros. Pero que sigan apretando, que llegará el día en que muchos productos no se compren porque son un robo. ¿Que esto no puede pasar? Recuerden aquella campaña de "esto sólo lo arreglamos entre todos". Y que no era más que una gigantesca campaña de publicidad de las grandes empresas para que los curritos no parásemos el consumo. Peor que eso, se hizo en un momento en el que la chavalada ya usaba Facebook asiduamente, y ya había una circulación de información fuera de los "canales oficiales".

[tomasjos]

Mientras el Dow Jones y el Nasdaq rebotan con fuerza - más del 2 %-

Edito a las 16:27: bajan más del 1%

[sudden and sharp]

 

[Benzino Napaloni]

Mientras el Dow Jones y el Nasdaq rebotan con fuerza - más del 2 %-

Edito a las 16:27: bajan más del 1%

Paice que se extendió el rumor de una moratoria de 90 días de los aranceles, hasta que la Casa Blanca lo ha desmentido.

¡Que no panda el cúnico!

[conejo]

Sería crash, sí. Un desplome súbito y abrupto...

No se conforman con escribirlo mal sino que lo meten a toda página 

[conejo]

Ojo con el Russell 2000 que va por delante de todos con un -28%… y con posibilidad de caer más del doble

[Derby]

Sería crash, sí. Un desplome súbito y abrupto...

No se conforman con escribirlo mal sino que lo meten a toda página 

Tendría que averiguar por qué se tradujo así en español...pero en inglés es "crash". Es una palabra onomatopéyica.

[senslev]

https://dle.rae.es/crac

crac

Definición

De crack

m. Econ. Caída repentina e intensa de los mercados financieros.
Sin.: crack, crash, quiebra, bancarrota, caída.

Sinónimos o afines de «crac»

crack, crash, quiebra, bancarrota, caída1.

[conejo]

https://dle.rae.es/crac

crac

Definición

De crack

m. Econ. Caída repentina e intensa de los mercados financieros.
Sin.: crack, crash, quiebra, bancarrota, caída.

Sinónimos o afines de «crac»

crack, crash, quiebra, bancarrota, caída1.

Crack sería la última opción teniendo Crac y Crash, me parece…

[sargento.algodon]

Sería crash, sí. Un desplome súbito y abrupto...

No se conforman con escribirlo mal sino que lo meten a toda página 

Tendría que averiguar por qué se tradujo así en español...pero en inglés es "crash". Es una palabra onomatopéyica.

https://www.rae.es/dpd/crac

crac
1. Voz onomatopéyica con que se imita el sonido de algo que se quiebra. No debe usarse para ello la grafía crack, ajena al sistema gráfico español.

2. Se recomienda utilizar también la grafía crac para adaptar la voz inglesa crack, usada en español con los sentidos de 'cocaína tratada, que se consume en pequeños cristales o piedrecitas que crujen al quemarse' y, coloquialmente, 'persona que destaca extraordinariamente en algo'. Es preferible, no obstante, emplear equivalencias en español como cocaína en piedra, para la droga, y fuera de serie, número uno, as o fenómeno, para la persona que destaca.

3. En español se usa también la voz crac con el significado de 'quiebra financiera o comercial'. No debe usarse para ello la voz inglesa crack, ya que, además de no ser española, tampoco es el término correcto en inglés, lengua en la que, con este sentido, se usa crash. No hay que olvidar, en todo caso, el sinónimo español quiebra: «Poniendo a las empresas afectadas al borde de la quiebra financiera» (Benegas Principio [Esp. 1984]).

4. El plural de crac, para todos los sentidos, es cracs (→ plural, 1.h).

[senslev]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ts5wJ6OfzA

Briefing Document: Trump's Tariff Policies and the Vision for a New Global Order
Subject: Analysis of Trump Administration's Tariff Policies and the Proposed "MAGA Master Plan" for a New Global Order Source: Excerpts from "Why Trump's tariff chaos actually makes sense (big picture)"

Executive Summary:

This briefing document analyzes the arguments presented in the provided source, which posits that President Trump's seemingly chaotic tariff policies are not random but rather the initial phase of a deliberate "MAGA master plan" to fundamentally reshape the global economic order. This plan, driven by concerns over U.S. deindustrialization and a desire to maintain the dollar's reserve currency status, envisions a new system with the U.S. at its center, characterized by tiered relationships with other nations ("green," "yellow," and "red" buckets), reciprocal tariffs, and a potential "Mar-a-Lago Accord" to manage currency values. The analysis highlights the historical context provided (Bretton Woods and neoliberal orders), the key figures driving this vision (Scott Bessent and Steven Mnuchin), and the potential challenges and feasibility of this ambitious plan.

Main Themes and Important Ideas/Facts:

The "Tariff Chaos" is Intentional: The source argues that Trump's tariffs, even on allies, are not impulsive but a calculated first step in a larger strategy. As Trump himself states, "I always say tariffs is the most beautiful word to me in the dictionary." This chaos is intended to create negotiating leverage. Scott Bessent, Trump's new Treasury Secretary, believes these policies have "begun the process of reorienting our international economic relations."

Motivation: Reindustrialization and National Security: The primary driver behind this plan is the perceived threat of U.S. deindustrialization. The source highlights the significant decline in manufacturing's contribution to U.S. output (from 28% in the 1950s to 10% today). This is seen as a problem for two key reasons:

•   Economic Impact: Deindustrialization has devastated the industrial heartland, a key voter base for Trump.

•   National Security: The U.S.'s diminished industrial capacity is seen as a disadvantage, particularly compared to China, in the event of conflict. Vice President JD Vance noted that "one of Beijing's state owned firms built more commercial ships just last year then all of America has produced since the end of World War two."

Historical Context: The Rise and Fall of Global Orders: The source provides a brief history of the U.S.-led global order, dividing it into two main phases:

•   Bretton Woods System (1944-1973): Characterized by fixed exchange rates pegged to the dollar (which was tied to gold), U.S. military protection, and U.S. support for allies' industrial development (e.g., the Marshall Plan). Joining this order offered benefits, seemingly making being a "green country" a "super good deal" for allies. However, the Triffin dilemma (the conflict between the need for more dollars for global growth and maintaining the gold standard) ultimately led to its collapse.

•   Neoliberal World Order (Early 1980s - 2016): Marked by lower tariffs, reduced investment barriers, flexible exchange rates, and U.S. security guarantees. While less formally structured, it incentivized non-U.S. nations to hoard dollars through exports. The strong dollar, while benefiting Americans and maintaining U.S. military power, contributed to U.S. deindustrialization, particularly after China joined the WTO in 2001 ("the China shock"). Increased inequality and a weakened industrial base led to Trump's election and his initial trade war in 2016, which the source argues "already marked the end of the neoliberal world order because it ended the very neoliberal idea that free trade is always good."

The Three-Step "MAGA Master Plan":

•   Step 1: Tariff Chaos: The current phase of imposing high tariffs on both allies and adversaries to demonstrate resolve and create negotiating leverage. Bessent has stated that tariffs are now used for "negotiating." Miran also suggested that his proposed policies would be pursued "later in an administration after tariffs had produced this sufficient negotiating leverage."

•   Step 2: Reciprocal Tariffs: The long-term goal of tariffs is to create a level playing field where the international trading system rewards factors like "ingenuity, security, rule of law and stability, not wage suppression, currency manipulation, intellectual property theft, non-tariff barriers and draconian regulation." Miran argues that other countries have "only got the United States to sell to," giving the U.S. significant negotiating power.

•   Step 3: "Mar-a-Lago Accord": A future agreement, potentially mirroring aspects of Bretton Woods (without the gold standard) or the Plaza Accord, aimed at managing currency values. The goal is likely to weaken the dollar to improve U.S. export competitiveness while maintaining its reserve currency status. Miran has suggested that "if the dollar were able to weaken to equilibrate trade, then we wouldn't have a lot of the problems that tariffs and other policy measures are designed to address."

The "Green, Yellow, and Red Bucket" System: Proposed by Scott Bessent, this system envisions a tiered global order where "green" countries receive low tariffs, military protection, and potentially preferred U.S. dollar access. "Yellow" and "red" countries would face less favorable terms. This mirrors aspects of the Bretton Woods system but potentially with "green" countries paying "tribute" for security, making them "vassal states."

Maintaining Reserve Currency Status: A crucial element of the plan is to ensure the U.S. dollar remains the global reserve currency. Trump himself stated, "if you want to go to third world status, lose your reserve currency. We have to have that. We cannot lose it." The "Mar-a-Lago Accord" is seen as a potential mechanism to achieve this while also weakening the dollar.

Feasibility and Challenges: The source raises significant questions about the feasibility of this plan. A key challenge is whether countries will be willing to join this new U.S.-centric order and accept the terms, particularly given past actions like tearing up trade agreements and threatening allies. The author questions, "if you tear up a trade agreement that you yourself signed, like the one with Canada, Mexico, or if you threaten to annex your closest ally or the territory controlled by one of your most loyal European allies, then how can you expect countries to ever want to join your new MAGA economic and security order?" If countries do not join, the U.S. may face a difficult choice between losing its reserve currency status or accepting continued reliance on foreign manufacturing.


Key Figures:

•   Donald Trump: The driving force behind the tariff policies and the vision for a new global order.
•   Scott Bessent: New Treasury Secretary and key architect of the plan, emphasizing the reorientation of international economic relations and the "green, yellow, and red bucket" system.
•   Steven Mnuchin (Incorrectly named "Miran" in the source, likely a typo): New top economic advisor and author of "A User's Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System," advocating for reciprocal tariffs and a potential currency accord.

Conclusion:

The source presents a compelling, albeit speculative, argument that Trump's tariff policies are part of a larger, deliberate strategy to reshape the global economic order. This "MAGA master plan" aims to address U.S. deindustrialization and maintain the dollar's reserve currency status through a combination of aggressive tariffs, tiered international relationships, and a managed currency system. However, the success of this plan hinges on the willingness of other nations to participate and trust the U.S., which the author suggests is a significant challenge given recent U.S. actions and rhetoric. The coming years will be crucial in determining whether this vision can be realized or if the "tariff chaos" will lead to unintended and less desirable outcomes.

https://futurocienciaficcionymatrix.blogspot.com/2025/04/el-plan-de-trump-scott-bessent-y-sobre.html

[Zelig]

¿No se habían usado créditos baratos del COVID para buybacks?
A ver si el humo va a ir cargado de carbonillas.

[Derby]

https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/global-markets-selloff-graphic-2025-04-07/

Global markets are in meltdown: here's how it looks in charts


A screen tracks trading on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) after the opening of trading in New York City, U.S., April 7, 2025. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights

LONDON, April 7 (Reuters) - A stock market rout, historic in scale, has swept across the globe wiping more than $10 trillion off major markets, as concerns about the economic damage unleashed by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs spiral.

No corner of the world has been left unscathed by selling, with moves of a magnitude last seen during the 2020 COVID-19 crisis.

Here's how the selloff looks in charts.

WALL STREET MELTDOWN

The S&P 500 stock index (.SPX), opens new tab fell over 10% in the last two trading sessions of last week, its worst performance since the end of the Second World War and rivaled by the 1987 stock market rout, the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2020 COVID shock. The benchmark whipsawed on Monday, falling as much as 4.8% before bouncing as much as 4%. It was last down 1.33% as of 1700 GMT.



Kevin Thozet, investment committee member at Carmignac, said he expected U.S. stocks to keep falling and the cost of borrowing for companies to keep rising. The hit to U.S. household wealth from the severe stock-market losses would impact consumer spending and economic growth.

U.S. households are heavily invested in equities and their combined wealth hit a record high at the end of 2024 after two years of dazzling stock market gains.

"There’s been a kind of toxic wedding between U.S. economic growth and U.S. equity markets because (cash) savings rates were so low."

VOLATILITY HIGH

Wall Street's fear gauge, the VIX index, is now trading at its highest since last August's selloff in global stocks. The VIX index closed above 45 on Friday for the first time since the 2020 COVID crisis, also the biggest single-day jump since then.

In Europe, a similar indicator -- the Euro STOXX Volatility Index (.V2TX), opens new tab -- was set for its biggest one-day surge in absolute terms since October 2008.



BANKS

Banking stocks globally have borne the brunt of the selling - with European and Japanese banking stocks having shed roughly 20% each over the last three trading sessions. In Europe, banking stocks - that had been riding high on optimism about brighter longer-term growth prospects following news last month of Germany's huge fiscal boost - have lost 15% in three days, their largest such drop since COVID.



Recession fears are boosting expectations for faster interest rate cuts from big central banks -- a backdrop that typically bodes ill for banks.



CRUDE DECLINE

Another area that is feeling the pain of the coming weakening in demand from a global growth hit is oil. Brent crude was last down 2%, having hit its lowest since April 2021. Over three sessions, oil has lost almost 15% -- the biggest three-day drop since the COVID crisis.



DOWN, DOWN UNDER

The Australian dollar has been a major casualty. Australian exports to the United States will be subject to the lighter 10% rate, compared with China's hefty 34%, based on the list Trump unveiled last week.

But traders often use the Aussie dollar as a proxy for the less-liquid Chinese yuan, given Australia's exposure to the Chinese economy. Since Trump unveiled his tariffs and China's tit-for-tat response, the Aussie has lost nearly 4% in value.

It has dropped 4.5% in the last two days alone, marking its largest two-day fall since a 6% drop in 2020, in turn, the largest since 2010.



DONG TAKES A HIT

Markets in Vietnam, one of the major engines of "Factory Asia" and a huge exporter of goods to the United States - are reeling. Trump has slapped a duty of 46% on imports from Vietnam. Its trade surplus with the United States rose by an annual 20% in 2024 to a record above $123 billion, exporting anything from coffee to sporting apparel. Domestic stocks and the dong currency have dropped accordingly.

The dong has hit an all-time low and is around 5% below last September's seven-month peak.

A weak currency does have the effect of making Vietnam's exports even cheaper than they otherwise would have been. Yet it may not be enough to offset the damage of hefty U.S. tariffs.



NEW FRONTIER

The sovereign bonds of several so-called frontier markets have suffered selling. Bonds issued by Pakistan, which exports textiles to the United States, dropped 13 cents before retracing, pushing some of its debt to or below 70 cents on the dollar, a level below which a borrower is considered to be distressed.

Sri Lanka's recently restructured bonds also faced steep losses as the exporter is hit by tariffs, as did oil exporters such as Angola. The hammering poses serious questions for the borrowing costs and economic outlook of some of the countries; Sri Lanka had been clawing its way back from the worst economic crisis in a generation, and Pakistan and Angola have struggled with high debt burdens in recent years.

[senslev]

Esto ya lo comenté, y si se tienen en consideración otros detalles (desempleo, bonos basura, VIX llegando a 60, sentimiento muy, muy bajista, shitcoins aguantando el chaparrón),igual aún no es el momento.

[sudden and sharp]

“La historia se repite, «la primera vez como una gran tragedia y la segunda como una miserable farsa». (Es de Marx, por lo visto.)

[Louisville, KY.]