PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Primavera 2025

[tomasjos]

Estados Unidos le dice a China que si no retira el 34 por ciento de aranceles antes del miércoles le mete otro 50 por ciento

https://www.elconfidencial.com/mundo/2025-04-07/trump-amenaza-china-arancel-adicional-represalias-pekin_4103770/

[senslev]

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/dont-make-mistake-thinking-whats-now-happening-mostly-ray-dalio-w8dbe/

Don't Make the Mistake of Thinking That What's Now Happening is Mostly About
Tariffs


At this moment, a huge amount of attention is being justifiably paid to the announced tariffs and their very big impacts on markets and economies while very little attention is being paid to the circumstances that caused them and the biggest disruptions that are likely still ahead. Don't get me wrong, while these tariff announcements are very important developments and we all know that President Trump caused them, most people are losing sight of the underlying circumstances that got him elected president and brought these tariffs about. They are also mostly overlooking the vastly more important forces that are driving just about everything, including the tariffs.

The far bigger, far more important thing to keep in mind is that we are seeing a classic breakdown of the major monetary, political, and geopolitical orders. This sort of breakdown occurs only about once in a lifetime, but they have happened many times in history when similar unsustainable conditions were in place.

[Saturio]

aqui un friki de:



En la universidad jugabamos al Diplomacy cuando el resto de compañeros estaban mas interesados en la kale borroka.

Por cierto, los juegos de mesa (como la mayoría de los libros), se imprimen en China. Hay empresones monumentales a los que les mandas los archivos con tus diseños (mapas, cartas, libros de reglas, tokens) y te hacen la impresión y montaje. Desde los títulos más vendidos como el Catán al wargame más de nicho se fabrican por cuatro duros en China sin moverte de casa.
También las editoriales americanas lo hacen.

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/56b9c745-22f7-4494-b790-37be4c61f6ae

Billionaire financiers lambast Donald Trump’s tariffs

Alarm at market turmoil prompts even allies of the president to speak out


Home Depot co-founder Ken Langone: ‘Forty-six per cent on Vietnam? Come on! You might as well tell them, “Don’t even bother calling”’ © Bloomberg

Ken Langone, the co-founder of Home Depot and longtime Republican donor, has lambasted Donald Trump’s wide-ranging tariffs for being set too high and implemented too quickly.

Langone told the Financial Times the US president was being “poorly advised”, the 46 per cent tariff on Vietnam was “bullshit” and the additional 34 per cent tariff on China was “too aggressive, too soon” and did not give “serious negotiations a chance to work”.

“Forty-six per cent on Vietnam? Come on!” said Langone. “You might as well tell them, ‘Don’t even bother calling.’”

Langone is one of a growing number of billionaire financiers openly criticising the president’s decision to increase tariffs on imports to heights not seen since the 1930s as they grow increasingly alarmed at the resulting market meltdown.

The tariffs — a universal 10 per cent on all countries plus individual levies based on calculations of the amount of “tariffs” and trade restrictions that other countries imposed on the US, including non-monetary measures and VAT tax — have sent global markets into a tailspin. Over the past week, the S&P 500 has fallen almost 10 per cent.

Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller, a mentor to Treasury secretary Scott Bessent, has also weighed in, posting on X on Sunday: “I do not support tariffs exceeding 10%.”


President Trump reveals tariffs against US trade partners © Reuters

So too did billionaire donor Bill Ackman, a supporter of Trump in the 2024 presidential campaign, who described the tariffs as “a major policy error”.

Jim Rogers, who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros, wrote in an email to the FT that while “tariffs have occasionally helped a few people for fairly short periods”, they “are rarely good for anyone”.

Tesla and Starlink owner Elon Musk, Trump’s biggest donor, has also hit out at the tariffs. On Saturday, Musk called for “a zero-tariff situation” between the US and Europe and remarked that Peter Navarro, Trump’s senior adviser on trade, “ain’t built shit”.

In his annual letter to shareholders on Monday, JPMorgan Chase chief executive Jamie Dimon also criticised the measures, warning the tariffs “will probably increase inflation and are causing many to consider a greater probability of a recession”.

“The quicker this issue is resolved, the better because some of the negative effects increase cumulatively over time and would be hard to reverse,” he added.

Wilbur Ross, Trump’s commerce secretary during his first term, has also weighed in, warning the tariffs had had an unexpected impact.


Wilbur Ross, who was previously commerce secretary under Trump, says he has ‘doubts about the logic of the formula to compute the tariffs’ © AFP/Getty Images

“It’s more severe than I would have expected,” Ross told the FT. “Particularly the way it is impacting Vietnam, China and Cambodia is more extreme than I would have thought.”

Ross added that businesses and investment firms could deal with good news and bad news but warned: “It’s hard to deal with uncertainty. Fear of the unknown is the worst for people and we are in a period of extreme fear of the unknown.”

Langone said a “more manageable and certainly more constructive” approach would have been to impose a 10 per cent across-the-board tariff on imported goods, followed by bilateral negotiations with countries.

“I don’t understand the goddamn formula,” said Langone. “I believe he’s been poorly advised by his advisers about this trade situation — and the formula they’re applying.”

Ross, who refrained from directly criticising Trump, agreed there were problems with the way the tariffs had been calculated. “I also have some doubts about the logic of the formula to compute the tariffs. It’s a fairly unconventional way of measuring tariffs.”

He added: “I think that the countries most adversely affected hopefully will come forward and therefore quickly make a deal”.

Langone said while he agreed with a number of measures carried out by the Trump administration, “I have a different read on when I do it, how I do it, and of course, what breath would I do it. I wouldn’t take on everything all at once”.

He expects Trump will “eventually” engage in a series of bilateral meetings.

“I think it’ll work,” Langone said. “Right now, what everybody’s terrified of is a tariff war.”

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/b7c5aea6-c429-4917-bf35-a4f1b3159f85

Big investors look to sell out of private equity after market rout

Pensions and endowments seek exit from battered portfolios in blow to buyout industry


The shares of big private equity groups such as Blackstone, KKR and Carlyle have plunged by about a fifth in value last week © FT Montage: EPA/Shutterstock

Large institutional investors are studying options to shed stakes in illiquid private equity funds after the rout in global financial markets pummelled their portfolios, according to top private capital advisers.

The calls by pensions and endowments seeking ways to exit their investments, probably at discounts to their stated value, are a bad sign for the $4tn buyout industry. Industry groups such as Blackstone, KKR and Carlyle all saw their stocks plunge between 15 per cent and more than 20 per cent on Thursday and Friday.

The race to find liquidity signals that investors in private equity funds increasingly expect to receive few cash profits from their holdings this year and may face liquidity pressures that cause them to further retrench from making new investments. Last year, the private equity industry’s assets dropped for the first time in decades, according to Bain & Co, as fundraising plunged 23 per cent from 2023.

Executives had expected that a revival of dealmaking and initial public offerings under US President Donald Trump’s administration would help firms return profits to their investors, bolstering a spurt of new investment activity. But the opposite has happened, leaving the private equity industry in one of its most vulnerable states ever.

The stresses in the industry are drawing parallels to the onset of the 2008 financial crisis, or the early days of the coronavirus pandemic.

“The amount of calls I’ve received from limited partners seeking liquidity in the past few days is the most since the first days of Covid,” said Matthew Swain, head of Direct Placements and Secondaries at Houlihan Lokey. “People were banking on IPOs to meet their liquidity needs and now need to raise cash just to meet capital calls.”

Many large investors in private equity funds entered the year with record levels of exposure to unlisted assets. While the exposures often stretched beyond investors’ risk limits and even led to a wave of borrowing by many institutions, they had bet the situation was manageable and would be quickly resolved by a revival of dealmaking.

Now, after global stock markets dropped by trillions in value, these institutions face a double hit.

Dealmaking and IPO activity has ground to a halt, minimising cash returns. Moreover, pensions’ exposure to unlisted assets swelled this week as the plunge in public markets has created a “denominator effect”, in which private market holdings that are only marked quarterly rise as a percentage of their overall assets, skewing desired allocations.

“If the public market keeps going down and down, the denominator effect will become an issue again,” said Oren Gertner, a partner specialising in secondaries at law firm Sidley Austin.

Many large investors are speaking to advisers and considering options to sell their stakes in funds at discounts on second-hand markets, top industry bankers told the Financial Times.

“The denominator effect is going to mean a lot of people are over-allocated,” said one adviser, who forecast endowments would be the first to consider new sales of assets on second-hand markets.

“Everyone was hopeful the private machine would restart. But now the pressure is very real,” said another adviser, referring to firms’ ability to return cash to investors.

Both advisers expected endowments, already facing financial challenges from Trump’s threats to tax such portfolios and cut federal funding grants, would be the first to dump assets.

Sunaina Sinha Haldea, global head of private capital advisory at Raymond James, expected an investor sell-off of fund stakes if public stocks continued to fall, or did not recover by the end of the month.

Investors that choose to sell their stakes will face a brutal marketplace, advisers warned.

The prices of second-hand private equity fund stakes, which had risen to nearly 100 cents on the dollar in recent quarters, could fall to levels below 80 cents on the dollar, they forecast.

“Most people don’t want to sell below 80 per cent of a fund’s net asset value or less, but this time could be different,” said one top banker.

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/e443bca7-ce7e-4295-aeaa-f9f29a37b294

BlackRock’s Larry Fink warns US economy is ‘weakening as we speak’

Head of world’s biggest asset manager says market ructions are ‘impacting Main Street’


BlackRock’s Larry Fink said: ‘I’m concerned about inflation if all the proposed tariffs truly go into place’ © Reuters

Larry Fink said the US economy was “weakening as we speak”, warning the market ructions triggered by Donald Trump’s tariffs were rippling across corporate America.

The head of BlackRock, the world’s biggest asset manager, told a gathering of chief executives and investors in New York thatthere was “a real downturn” developing in several sectors and that “more and more people were pausing and slowing down consumption”.

“When you see a 20 per cent market decline in three days obviously it has significant impacts and the ripple effects of the potential of tariffs is going to be long-standing,” Fink said. “The market is impacting Main Street.”

His comments come as investors grapple with a sell-off that has sheared trillions of dollars off of global equity valuations. Wall Street’s S&P 500 share index shed 10.5 per cent last Thursday and Friday alone, and swung violently at the start of this week as traders assessed the president’s plans to hit trading partners with steep levies.

The aggressive market pullback — the S&P 500 has fallen 17.3 per cent from its February high — has sparked a wave of margin calls on hedge funds, as traders stump up money or face being stopped out of their positions.

“Markets are down 20 per cent, some stocks are down 30, 40 per cent from their high water marks from January,” he said. “But in the long run this is more of a buying opportunity than a selling opportunity. That doesn’t mean we can’t fall another 20 per cent from here too.”

Fink’s comments at the Economic Club of New York prompted audible gasps from the audience. Many financiers have watched as shares of their investment groups have slumped since Trump’s ‘liberation day’ speech, as investors fret over a looming recession, lower profitability and the potential for corporate defaults. BlackRock’s shares have fallen 25 per cent from their all-time high in January.



Fink said he was troubled that the US was destabilising markets globally and that he saw “zero chance” the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates as investors were currently pricing, given the inflationary pressures developing.

“I’m concerned about inflation if all the proposed tariffs truly go into place,” he said.

Fink also declined to say if he believed in a so-called ‘Trump put’, which would entail the president reversing tariffs if markets continued to sink. “I don’t know how to value that.”

[Derby]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/recession-most-ceos-think-u-s-is-already-in-one-says-blackrocks-larry-fink-0f2c0433?g=bf3ae98b-f0ca-4817-b3c1-94476e11c027&mod=mw_rss_bulletins

Recession? Most CEOs think the U.S. is already in one, says BlackRock’s Larry Fink

[tomasjos]

Del directo de El Confidencial
https://www.elconfidencial.com/mercados/2025-04-07/bolsa-ibex-35-mercados-hoy-directo_4103246/

[...]
Los inversores han vuelto a apostar por las ventas durante casi toda la sesión, prolongando el fuerte descalabro de las dos jornadas precedentes. Solo ha habido una excepción, entre las 15:45 y las 16:30, cuando el mercado ha dado por buena una noticia no contrastada sobre la posibilidad de que Trump se haya abierto a pausar durante 90 días la aplicación de los aranceles. En ese momento, todos los índices bursátiles se han dado la vuelta y han entrado en verde. Pero poco después, al comprobar que se trataba de una descontextualización de una frase de un asesor de la Casa Blanca, han retomado las caídas.

Sin embargo, en Wall Street, el razonamiento de los inversores ha sido tan veloz como el rebote: si un simple rumor infundado ha provocado un repunte inmediato de las acciones, ¿hasta dónde podrían escalar si el escenario hipotético se convirtiera en uno real? Una idea generalizada que ha conseguido que los principales índices de la Bolsa de Nueva York hayan reducido considerablemente sus pérdidas en comparación con las dos últimas sesiones: el Dow Jones pierde cerca de un 1%, mientras que el S&P 500 ha retrocedido finalmente un 0,2% (ha llegado a subir un 3,4%) y el Nasdaq consigue cerrar en verde, con un ligero avance del 0,1%
[...]


Los inversores siguen esperando que esto sea solo un susto planificado y que todo vuelva a la normalidad, que esto sea un farol.

[AbiertoPorDemolicion]

https://www.ft.com/content/b7c5aea6-c429-4917-bf35-a4f1b3159f85

Big investors look to sell out of private equity after market rout

Pensions and endowments seek exit from battered portfolios in blow to buyout industry


The shares of big private equity groups such as Blackstone, KKR and Carlyle have plunged by about a fifth in value last week © FT Montage: EPA/Shutterstock

No (de) preocuparse.

Yo le diría a los de BlackStone, que si tienen inversiones en hactivitos inmobiliarios en España, que no se preocupen. Que si necesitáis liquidez, no vais a tener que "mal-vender". El gobierno os los va a comprar a precio de mercao pisitófilo y los va a incluir en la cartera de activos tóxicos de la SAREB, o creará un congelador inmobiliario ad-hoc para que nadie del mercao salga perdiendo. Si "mal-vendéis", todos los pobres van a poder comprar una vivienda y les vais a quitar clientela a la pisitofilia, y así no funciona el mercao.

Así que Larry Fink, estate tranqui; os damos vuestro dinero extra, y os vais por donde habéis venido.

Es la magia del capitalismopopular, que todos ganan.

[asustadísimos]

[Por favor, recuérdese que EE. UU. no es un imperio comercial, sino financiero. La actual 'yihad' arancelaria solo puede entenderse en términos de la Hegemonía Dólar y de la refinanciación de la deuda externa.]

[asustadísimos]

[Según este gráfico («de los que nos gustan a nosotros»), aportado por Senslev, en EE. UU., la recesión en sentido estricto tocaría ya:



Coincide 'grosso modo' con nuestra previsión para cuando se conozcan las actas de la próxima reunión de la Fed (aprox. 20-mayo).

La Fed, ante el barullo que se ha montado con la 'yihad' arancelaria (que no ha surgido de la nada —Trump solo es un vocero—) ha salido a decir que ha aumentado el riesgo inflacionario. Cuando un banquero central dice esto es que no va bajar los tipos de interés, o lo hará simbólicamente, con lo que la recesión que ya está en boca de todos quedará oficializada de facto.

No todas las recesiones son iguales. Esta es importantísima. Por eso se le ha dado tantas largas —todo el tiempo que ha estado invertida la curva de tipos—. Con ella viene la conciencia de que el modelo económico ha cambiado para siempre, lo que abrirá el debate sobre la crisis del sistema capitalista y del anglo en particular.]

[asustadísimos]

[Otro mayoísta:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/-L0xnLtpbP0]